Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, with a focus on the growth of global crude oil demand and strong production growth from non-OPEC+ countries [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The EIA has maintained and slightly adjusted its price forecasts for crude oil and natural gas for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average crude oil price of $74 per barrel in 2025 and $66 per barrel in 2026 [1][2]. - Global oil demand is projected to increase significantly, with the IEA forecasting a growth of 940,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 1,050,000 barrels per day in 2025 [4][10]. - Non-OPEC+ countries are expected to contribute the majority of the production increase, with EIA predicting a rise of 176,000 barrels per day in global oil supply in 2025 [7][10]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of January 17, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $80.79 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.29% [17]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 580, down by 4 rigs week-on-week [29]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $11.48 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread rose to $10.75 per barrel [1]. - The report indicates that refining profitability is expected to improve as economic recovery progresses [1]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have risen, with the average spot price in East China reaching 5,067.00 CNY per ton, up 4.25% week-on-week [1]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is considered average, but there are signs of improvement in demand [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-dividend companies such as China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [12]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [12]. - The polyester sector is expected to see significant improvements, with a focus on quality companies like Tongkun Co., Ltd. [12].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a **"Overweight"** rating for the internet and media sector, indicating a positive outlook on the industry's performance relative to the broader market [1] Core Views - TikTok's global daily active users (DAU) reached **371 million**, with an average daily usage time of **107.3 minutes**, ranking it as the **5th largest social media platform globally** [8] - TikTok's US monthly active users (MAU) stood at **170 million** as of January 2024, making the US the second-largest market for TikTok after Indonesia [11] - TikTok's global advertising revenue is projected to reach **$23.6 billion** in 2024, with the US contributing **$12.3 billion**, accounting for **52%** of the total [17] - TikTok Shop's US GMV reached **$9 billion** in 2024, a **650% increase** from 2023, with daily GMV averaging **$24.66 million** [18] - Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book) surged to the **top of the US iOS free app download chart**, benefiting from TikTok's temporary shutdown in the US [37] ByteDance's Overseas Products and Users - TikTok is wholly owned by ByteDance, which is **58% owned by global institutional investors**, **21% by founder Zhang Yiming**, and **21% by employees** [3] - ByteDance plans to establish a new global headquarters in **Saudi Arabia by Q1 2025** and invest **$2.1 billion** in building AI and data centers in Malaysia [5] - ByteDance's app portfolio in the US includes social, music, video editing, education, photo, and short drama apps, with TikTok being the most popular [6] - Lemon8, another ByteDance social app, saw a **150% increase in global downloads** in December 2024, with **70% of downloads coming from the US** [6] TikTok's Overseas Monetization - TikTok's primary revenue streams overseas include **advertising, e-commerce, and live streaming** [17] - TikTok Shop's US operations rely heavily on **video-based sales**, which account for **58% of transactions**, while live streaming contributes only **10%** [19] - TikTok's gaming monetization is still catching up, with its **TikTok for Business platform ranking 7th and 8th in game installs on Android and iOS**, respectively [22] - TikTok's H5 games (mini-games) generated **$390 million in revenue in H1 2024**, with games like *Mushroom Hero Legend* performing exceptionally well [33] Xiaohongshu's Rise in the US - Xiaohongshu's **monthly active users (MAU) exceeded 300 million**, driven by aggressive user acquisition strategies and partnerships, such as with CCTV's Spring Festival Gala [38] - The platform's **2024 Q1 revenue surpassed $1 billion**, with a net profit of **$200 million**, marking a significant turnaround from its **$200 million loss in 2022** [37] - Xiaohongshu's algorithm department was restructured to accelerate commercialization, focusing on **advertising and e-commerce** [37] Media and Internet Sector Highlights - A-share media companies like **Mango Excellent Media** and **Glacier Network** reported strong earnings, with Mango's 2024 net profit ranging between **1.54-1.9 billion yuan** [2] - Hong Kong-listed internet giants such as **Tencent**, **Alibaba**, and **Xiaomi** are actively investing in AI, with Tencent leveraging its WeChat ecosystem for e-commerce growth [2] - The gaming sector saw notable performance from companies like **Shenzhou Taiyue**, **Kaiying Network**, and **Giant Network**, with low PE ratios and improving earnings [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4][40]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the growth potential in the pet food sector. The pet food industry is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2024, driven by domestic brands rising and consumer upgrades. In 2025, the trend of leading companies increasing market share and profitability is seen as a certainty [2][4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Pei Di Co. for investment opportunities in the pet food sector. Additionally, with the upcoming policy document, food security is likely to be emphasized again, and the promotion of genetically modified corn is expected to accelerate in 2025 [4][2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 3.9%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.1%. The top five gainers included Guai Bao Pet (28.1%), Zhong Chong Co. (19.6%), ST Jiawo (15.2%), Yongshuntai (14.6%), and Jinhe Biological (14.5%) [4][8]. - The report highlights the significant growth in the pet food sector, with online sales in December 2024 reaching 2.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%. For the entire year, sales reached 27.74 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year [4][2]. Livestock Farming - In pig farming, the average selling price of pigs was 15.46 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.6%. The average weight of pigs at market was 122.96 kg, down 1.14 kg from the previous week. The price of piglets rose to 581 yuan/head, an increase of 43 yuan [4][2]. - In chicken farming, the price of white feather broiler chicks was 2.49 yuan/chick, up 9.7% week-on-week, while the price of broiler chickens was 3.64 yuan/kg, down 1.6% [4][2]. Agricultural Products - The report indicates that food security will continue to be a focus, with the Central Rural Work Conference emphasizing the need to ensure national food security. The main agricultural products' prices are expected to stabilize in 2025, and the report recommends focusing on the planting and seed industry sectors [4][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, suggesting a focus on innovative drugs and medical devices due to the upcoming establishment of the Class C drug directory by the National Medical Insurance Administration in 2025 [2][16]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector saw a weekly increase of 2.7%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 2.3% [3][5]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector stands at 26.6 times PE for 2024E, ranking 9th among 31 primary industries [5][7]. - The National Medical Insurance Administration plans to release the first version of the Class C drug directory in 2025, which will focus on innovative drugs that provide significant clinical value but are not included in the basic medical insurance directory [16]. - Anhui Province is set to lead a national alliance for the centralized procurement of biological drugs, continuing efforts to streamline procurement processes [17]. - The report highlights a slight rebound in the national birth rate for 2024, which may impact healthcare demand [16]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index increased by 2.7% this week, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance, such as medical devices (+2.6%) and medical consumables (+5.0%) [3][5]. - The pharmaceutical sector's performance ranked 25th among 31 sub-industries [3]. Key Events - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced reforms to the medical insurance fund settlement mechanism, which began on January 1, 2025, in Anhui Province [17]. - The report notes that the expected operating profit for BeiGene in 2025 will be positive, indicating a potential recovery for the company [19]. Company Focus - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in innovative drugs and medical devices, such as Heng Rui Medicine and Mindray Medical, in light of the upcoming Class C directory [19]. - The potential acquisition of Renfu Pharmaceutical by China Merchants Group is highlighted, which could lead to significant changes in the company's control structure [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction and decoration industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal improvement in traditional infrastructure investment in December 2024, with expectations for more resilient investment in 2025 [1][3]. - The construction and decoration sector saw a weekly increase of 2.95%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.31% [4][6]. - Key sub-sectors such as international engineering, ecological landscaping, and steel structures showed significant weekly gains, with increases of 6.35%, 5.98%, and 4.69% respectively [6][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The SW Construction Decoration Index increased by 2.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.81 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sectors [3][4]. - The best-performing sub-sectors for the week included international engineering (+6.35%), ecological landscaping (+5.98%), and steel structures (+4.69%) [6][10]. Key Company Changes - China Metallurgical Group Corporation reported a new contract amount of 1,248.3 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year [19][20]. - Precision Steel Structure signed contracts worth 21.97 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an increase of 8.4% year-on-year [19][20]. - Zhejiang Construction Investment's new contracts totaled 138.34 billion yuan in 2024, down 16.21% year-on-year [19][20]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a moderate recovery in infrastructure investment for 2025, highlighting the investment value in cyclical high-elasticity sectors [3][19]. - It recommends focusing on undervalued state-owned enterprises for potential valuation recovery, particularly in the coal chemical sector and steel structure companies [3][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for key players in the sector [3]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from a rebound in the real estate market and the implementation of old-for-new policies, which will stimulate demand for appliances [61][63]. - Key companies such as Eu Sheng Electric and Feike Electric have released optimistic earnings forecasts for 2024, with Eu Sheng Electric projecting a net profit increase of 40%-55% [11][49]. - The report highlights significant sales growth in air conditioning and kitchen appliances, with online and offline sales showing substantial year-on-year increases [27][29]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In December 2024, air conditioning sales reached 136,000 units online (up 29.3% YoY) and 46,900 units offline (up 84.3% YoY) [27]. - Kitchen appliances also saw strong performance, with range hood online sales at 526,000 units (up 35.7% YoY) and offline sales at 146,000 units (up 90.4% YoY) [29]. Company Performance - Eu Sheng Electric expects a net profit of 244.8 million to 271.0 million yuan for 2024, a growth of 40%-55% [11]. - Feike Electric anticipates a net profit of 464 million yuan for 2024, a decline of 54.45% [49]. Market Trends - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with new home sales declining only 23% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing of the decline [10]. - The report notes that the old-for-new policy will expand the range of appliances eligible for subsidies, further boosting market demand [63]. Component Data - In November 2024, the sales of key components such as rotary compressors and electronic expansion valves saw significant increases, with rotary compressors up 32.1% YoY [17]. Economic Environment - The report indicates a stable macroeconomic environment, with the USD/CNY exchange rate showing minimal fluctuation [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, indicating a favorable investment environment for the sector in 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The demand for beauty products appears slightly weak, with a 1.1% decline in retail sales for cosmetics in 2024. However, it is expected to stabilize and recover in 2025 due to consumer policy incentives and new shopping scenarios [4][9]. - Major beauty groups are accelerating their integration of cosmetics and medical aesthetics, with companies like Shiseido and L'Oréal making strategic investments in this area [4][9]. - The report highlights the anticipated performance of key companies in 2024, with expected revenue growth for several brands, including Proya (+25%), Shiseido (+60%), and Marubi (+30%) [4][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market from January 10 to January 17, 2025, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 4.3%, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shenwan A Index [5][6]. Market Trends - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in 2024 showed a decline of 1.1%, indicating a weak demand environment. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2025, supported by favorable consumer policies and new gifting scenarios [4][9]. - The report notes that the medical aesthetics market is growing at a rate exceeding 20%, making it an attractive area for investment as beauty companies seek to integrate these services [4][21]. Company Performance Forecast - Proya is expected to achieve a 25% increase in overall revenue and a 26% increase in net profit for 2024. Shiseido is projected to see a 60% increase in revenue and a 75% increase in net profit [10][11]. - Other companies like Marubi and Juzibio are also expected to report significant growth, with revenue increases of 30% and 45%, respectively [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with a comprehensive brand matrix and strong performance in live e-commerce, such as Proya, Shiseido, and Marubi. It also suggests keeping an eye on niche players like Juzibio and Maogeping, which are benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and innovative products [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, particularly highlighting undervalued high-growth stocks [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for marginal improvement in profitability for domestic titanium dioxide producers due to the EU's anti-dumping measures and price increases by Venator [2][3]. - It notes a recovery in the chemical sector driven by rising oil prices and a gradual recovery in PPI, suggesting investment opportunities in cyclical products with low inventory levels [2][3]. - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others across various segments such as fertilizers, pesticides, and specialty chemicals [2][3]. Summary by Sections Macro Economic Analysis - Oil prices are expected to remain high in the short term due to stable supply and demand, while coal prices are projected to decline in the medium to long term [3]. - Natural gas prices are currently fluctuating at the bottom [3]. Chemical Sector Dynamics - The report highlights the recent price adjustments in titanium dioxide and the potential for improved margins for domestic producers [2][3]. - It discusses the chemical industry's PPI data, indicating a narrowing decline, with a focus on cyclical products as investment opportunities [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks and specific companies such as Wanhua Chemical and various players in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors [2][3]. - It also points to growth stocks in semiconductor materials and OLED technologies, recommending companies like Yake Technology and Wanrun Co [2][3]. Price Trends and Market Conditions - The report provides detailed pricing information for various chemical products, indicating stable or slightly increasing prices in several segments, including PVC and fertilizers [9][10][11]. - It notes that the market is currently characterized by cautious optimism, with some sectors experiencing price stability while others face downward pressure [9][10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the retail industry, indicating a favorable investment environment for the sector in 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - December retail sales exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, driven by improved consumer sentiment and the implementation of consumption-boosting policies [6][11]. - The report highlights the impact of new consumption policies and the upcoming Spring Festival, suggesting that traditional and newly promoted product categories will perform well during this peak consumption period [13][22]. - The online retail sector showed recovery, with a 3.80% year-on-year growth in December, supported by promotional activities and consumer incentives [7][9]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In December 2024, the total retail sales reached 4.5 trillion yuan, marking a 3.7% increase year-on-year, surpassing the market consensus of 3.5% [6][11]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points [6][11]. Consumption Policies - The government has intensified consumption policies, including the expansion of the "old-for-new" program, which is expected to stimulate consumer demand significantly [13][18]. - Various provinces are actively implementing local consumption policies, including substantial new year consumption vouchers to boost spending during the Spring Festival [16][19]. E-commerce and Online Retail - The online retail penetration rate remained stable at 28.2% in December, with a notable recovery in online sales growth as promotional activities commenced ahead of the Spring Festival [7][9]. - The report notes that online sales of physical goods in December reached 1.2757 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.80% year-on-year increase [7][9]. Sector Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer sentiment in Q1 2025, driven by ongoing consumption policies and the traditional peak shopping season [3][11]. - Key sectors to watch include e-commerce platforms (Alibaba, Meituan, JD.com, Pinduoduo) and brick-and-mortar retailers (Yonghui Supermarket, Chongqing Department Store) [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with supply clearing nearing its end. The effective inventory is at a low level, while ineffective inventory remains high in third and fourth-tier cities [3][28]. - The report anticipates that the industry will bottom out, with a weak overall volume but strong structural resilience, particularly in first and second-tier cities [3][28]. Industry Data Summary - **New Home Transaction Volume**: In the week of January 11-17, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new home transaction of 257.5 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 7% [4][21]. - **Year-on-Year Changes**: January's new home transactions in 34 cities showed a year-on-year decrease of 3%, with first and second-tier cities up by 5% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 44% [7][9]. - **Second-Hand Home Transactions**: In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 138.3 million square meters, down 20% week-on-week, but up 66% year-on-year for January [13][14]. Policy and News Tracking - **Market Policies**: The report highlights various local government initiatives aimed at revitalizing the real estate market, including urban renewal projects in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and adjustments to housing loan rates [28][29]. - **Sales and Investment Data**: In 2024, the total sales of commercial housing reached 9.68 trillion yuan, down 17.1% year-on-year, with a total sales area of 970 million square meters, down 12.9% [28][30]. Company Announcements - **Sales Performance**: China Resources Land reported a sales figure of 32 billion yuan in December 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52%, while the total sales for 2024 were 261.1 billion yuan, down 15% [31][32]. - **Profit Forecasts**: Various companies, including China Fortune Land Development and Poly Developments, are forecasting significant losses for 2024, with expected net profits ranging from -6 billion to -4 billion yuan for China Fortune Land Development [31][32]. - **Share Buybacks**: Companies such as Beike-W and Yuexiu Services have engaged in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their stock value [32][35].