Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 96.1 [1][5][6] Core Insights - The company's mid-year performance for the fiscal year 2025 is stable, with total revenue increasing by 45% year-on-year to HKD 39.9 billion, while gross profit margin decreased by 11.3 percentage points to 38.9% [1][2] - Core net profit rose by 17.5% year-on-year to approximately HKD 10.5 billion, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - The company anticipates maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 40-50% for the full year despite a slight decrease in the interim dividend payout ratio to 26.3% [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Real estate development revenue surged by 323% year-on-year to HKD 16.4 billion, driven by strong sales and deliveries, particularly from projects like YOHO WEST Phase 1 and Flying Phase 2 [1][2] - Rental income saw a minor decline of 1.3% to HKD 9.99 billion, with office rental income dropping by 5.3% to HKD 2.85 billion, while retail rental income only slightly decreased by 0.9% to approximately HKD 4.59 billion [1][2] - Data center business revenue increased by 14% year-on-year to HKD 1.47 billion, supported by rising demand [1][2] Future Outlook - The company expects to launch six new projects in Hong Kong over the next ten months, with a total attributable gross floor area of approximately 2.28 million square feet [1][2] - The report highlights that the recent fiscal budget adjustments to stamp duty for small units are likely to stabilize the Hong Kong real estate market [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [2][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to improve operational efficiency and reduce debt levels in the future. The new management team has shown promising sales progress, with an upward revision of sales targets in mainland China [5][6]. - The company has achieved a core profit of 4.42 billion HKD for the first half of the fiscal year 2025, which is a 17.6% decrease year-on-year [5][6]. - The target price has been adjusted downwards to 6.94 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 43.9% from the current price of 4.82 HKD [5][11]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2023, the company reported revenues of 54,566 million HKD, with a projected revenue of 42,999 million HKD for 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 20.2% [4][13]. - The company’s net profit for the first half of fiscal year 2025 was reported at -6,633 million HKD, a significant decline compared to the previous year [6][13]. - The net debt ratio increased slightly to 57.5%, primarily due to the repurchase of perpetual bonds and other adjustments [5][6]. Sales and Revenue Performance - The company reported a slight revenue decline of 1.6% to 16,789 million HKD for the first half of fiscal year 2025, with a notable increase in real estate development revenue by 24.3% [6][5]. - The company achieved contract sales of 7.5 billion RMB in mainland China, raising its annual sales guidance from 11 billion RMB to 14 billion RMB [5][6]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to see rental income growth of approximately 15-20% annually from fiscal years 2025 to 2027, driven by new property completions [5][6]. - The report suggests that the market's concerns regarding the company's debt levels are already reflected in its low price-to-book ratio of approximately 0.07, compared to the industry average of 0.3-0.4 [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, 百济神州 (6160 HK), with a target price raised to HKD 208.80, indicating a potential upside of 25.3% from the current price of HKD 166.70 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in the U.S. market for its product, Zebutine, which has become the leading treatment for new patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) [2][7]. - The company expects to achieve positive operating profit in 2025, with projected revenues of USD 4.9 to 5.3 billion and a gross margin in the range of 80-90% [7][8]. - The financial forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted upwards, with revenue estimates increased to USD 5.078 billion, reflecting a 10% increase from previous estimates [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: USD 2.459 billion - 2024: USD 3.810 billion - 2025E: USD 5.078 billion - 2026E: USD 6.208 billion - 2027E: USD 7.155 billion - The company anticipates a net profit of USD 59 million in 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [3][15]. - The operating profit is projected to turn positive in 2025, reaching USD 152 million, with a notable increase to USD 931 million by 2026 [8][15]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 52.66%, with a 52-week high of HKD 166.70 and a low of HKD 77.00 [6][14]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 13.65 million shares, indicating strong market interest [6]. Product Pipeline and Future Prospects - The company is advancing its pipeline, particularly in the hematology sector, with key developments expected in the coming years, including potential accelerated approvals for new treatments [7]. - The global peak sales forecast for Zebutine has been raised to USD 6.9 billion, reflecting the product's strong market position and growth potential [7][8].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 2 月 28 日 全球宏观 《美国优先投资政策》下的市场博弈 特朗普政策不确定性下，全球金融市场近期经历了显著波动。经济政策不确定 性攀升，美国经济下行风险增大，导致美股、美债及美元等核心资产价格震 荡。特朗普近期签署《美国优先投资政策》（America First Investment Policy） 备忘录，进一步强化美国对外投资限制与国内投资引导体系。 值得注意的是，尽管海外市场扰动不断加剧，但在美债利率下行的宏观环境 中，加之 AI 估值重估叙事的强力驱动以及南向资金的持续流入支撑，港股市 场展现出了超预期的韧性，呈现出与全球市场明显的差异化表现。 《美国优先投资政策》核心内容及框架 《美国优先投资政策》作为特朗普 2.0 政策体系的重要组成部分，与此前发布 的互惠贸易关税备忘录和美国优先贸易政策共同构成了完整的"美国优先"经 济政策框架。该政策主张采取"双轨战略"：一方面为盟友投资创建"快车 道"，简化审批流程；另一方面限制美国"外国对手"投资往来。这一政策与 对内减税、对外关税政策相辅相成，共同服务于提升美国制造业竞争力、保障 供应链安全以及维持关键技术领域领 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 年结1月31日 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万美元) | 60,922 | 130,497 | 211,723 | 270,548 | 311,585 | | 同比增长 (%) | 125.9 | 114.2 | 62.2 | 27.8 | 15.2 | | 净利润 (百万美元) | 32,312 | 74,265 | 117,514 | 155,099 | 180,404 | | 每股盈利 (美元) | 1.30 | 2.99 | 4.74 | 6.28 | 7.30 | | 同比增长 (%) | 288.2 | 131.1 | 58.2 | 32.6 | 16.3 | | 前EPS预测值 (美元) | | | 4.32 | 5.19 | | | 调整幅度 (%) | | | 9.6 | 21.1 | | | 市盈率 (倍) | 97.7 | 42.3 | 26.7 | 20.2 | 17.3 | | 每股账面净值 (美元) | 1.72 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [3][20]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve stable revenue growth with narrowing losses expected by 2025, with a target price set at $4.60, representing a potential upside of 38.6% from the current price of $3.32 [1][7]. - Revenue for 2025 is estimated to reach 5.77 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.7% [2][10]. - The company aims to optimize its cost structure while maintaining revenue growth, with expectations of improved profitability in the second half of 2025 [7][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted as follows: 2023: 2,961; 2024: 4,554; 2025E: 5,768; 2026E: 6,837; 2027E: 7,762, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 18.5%, 53.8%, 26.7%, 18.5%, and 13.5% respectively [2][16]. - Net profit (in million RMB) is expected to improve from a loss of 996 million in 2024 to a loss of 215 million in 2025, with a return to profitability projected in 2026 [2][16]. - The company’s gross margin is anticipated to stabilize around 67.2% by 2025, with operational efficiency improvements contributing to this stability [18]. Performance Metrics - The company’s stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 51.6%, with a market capitalization of approximately 479.34 million USD [5][10]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 15.05 million shares, indicating strong market interest [5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 31.6 in 2026 and 19.7 in 2027, reflecting a gradual improvement in earnings expectations [2][16].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for the company to "Buy" [2][4][12] Core Views - The completion of the YY Live sale transaction is a significant event, with a total consideration of $2.1 billion, which includes $1.86 billion received in 2021 and an additional $240 million from the recent transaction [7] - The company has over $3.3 billion in net cash on hand, translating to a cash value of $58 per share [7] - The impact of product delisting on Q4 revenue is expected to be limited, with a forecast of a 3% year-on-year decline in revenue and a 10% increase in adjusted operating profit for Q4 [7] - The revenue forecast for Q1 2025 and the full year has been reduced by 7% and 5% respectively due to seasonal impacts and adjustments in non-core voice live streaming business [7] - The valuation has been adjusted to a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) method, raising the target price to $63, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price [7] Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from $2,412 million in 2022 to $2,268 million in 2023, with a slight recovery to $2,376 million by 2026 [3][14] - Net profit is expected to increase from $199 million in 2022 to $293 million in 2023, with a gradual increase to $282 million by 2026 [3][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from $2.54 in 2022 to $4.16 in 2023, reaching $5.84 by 2026 [3][14] - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a projected cash and cash equivalents of $1,597 million in 2025 [14][15] Market Performance - The stock closed at $52.08 with a target price of $63.00, reflecting a potential upside of 21% [1][12] - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 24.44% [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HKD 9.78, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 7.84 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The overall performance is led by strong results in the South Korean and Indian markets, with an increase in dividend payout ratio reflecting future operational confidence [2][6]. - For 2024, Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of USD 6.246 billion, a decline of 8.9% year-on-year, with normalized EBITDA at USD 1.807 billion, down 10.7% [6][16]. - The company faced challenges in the China market, with a significant drop in sales and revenue due to increased competition and changing consumer behavior [6][16]. - The Indian market showed robust growth, particularly in the premium segment, achieving nearly 20% growth in high-end products and doubling market share over the past five years [6][16]. - The South Korean market performed exceptionally well, with high single-digit sales growth leading to double-digit revenue growth, driven by product mix optimization and market share expansion [6][16]. - The report maintains a positive long-term growth outlook for Budweiser APAC, particularly as consumer spending recovers in China, supported by strong performance in South Korea [6][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Budweiser APAC show a recovery trend, with expected revenues of USD 6.563 billion in 2025, growing to USD 7.181 billion by 2027 [5][16]. - Net profit is projected to rebound to USD 837 million in 2025, with a further increase to USD 1.067 billion by 2027 [5][16]. - The company’s dividend yield is expected to remain attractive, with a payout ratio increasing to 96% in 2024, up from 82% in 2023 [6][16]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of distribution cities to 235, enhancing market reach and operational efficiency [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for data centers, but the valuation has fully reflected the positive fundamentals [5][6]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 8.58, reflecting a potential downside of 3.6% from the current price of HKD 8.90 [1][5]. - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and operating cash flow, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 14.0% in the first half of the fiscal year 2025 [5][6]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2023, the company reported revenue of HKD 2,346 million, with projected revenue growth to HKD 3,322 million by 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.3% [4][9]. - Net profit for 2023 was HKD 905 million, expected to rise to HKD 1,198 million by 2025, indicating a growth rate of 32.0% [4][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the first half of fiscal year 2025 was HKD 1,053 million, up 17.1% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 71.6% [5][6]. Market Position and Capacity - The company has successfully launched its first phase of the MEGA IDC, which is set to be the largest data center in Hong Kong, with a total floor area of approximately 500,000 square feet and a power capacity of 50 MW [5][6]. - The company anticipates a decrease in capital expenditures by 10-20% annually from 2025 to 2027, having passed the peak of capital spending and interest rate cycles [5][6]. - The total capacity is expected to reach 280 MW, with current equipped capacity at 103 MW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12 MW [5][6].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 2 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 163.20 | 港元 184.00↑ | +12.7% | | | 网易云音乐 (9899 HK) | | | | | | 2024 下半年利润超预期；仍看好音乐付费长期增长潜力 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 7,867 | 7,950 | 8,008 | 8,700 | 9,382 | | 同比增长 (%) | -12.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8.6 | 7.8 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 819 | 1,700 | 1,819 | 2,021 | 2,228 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 3.86 | 8.06 | 8.52 | 9.46 | 10.43 | ...