交银国际研究 公司更新 | 金融科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 19 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | | 10.59 | 美元 | 11.80↑ | +11.4% | | | 乐信集团 (LX US) | | | | | | | | 盈利超预期，预计资产质量保持改善趋势 | | | | | | | 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% LX US MSCI中国指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (美元) | 10.59 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (美元) | 1.56 | | 市值 (百万美元) | 1,363.36 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 5.03 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 82.59 | | 200天平均价 (美元) | 5.30 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 万丽 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [2][6][18]. Core Insights - The company reported Q4 earnings that met expectations, with a net profit of 681 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.1% [6]. - The revenue guidance for 2025 shows a strong growth forecast of 10-15%, with international business revenue expected to account for 25% of total revenue [6]. - The international business is showing a positive growth trend, with a year-on-year increase in loan facilitation of 26.1% in Q4, and a target to reach 50% of revenue from international operations by 2030 [6]. - The company is enhancing shareholder returns, with a 17% increase in dividends per ADS for 2024 and a new dividend payout ratio of 20-30% of net profit starting in 2025 [6]. - The target price has been raised to $13.00, reflecting a potential upside of 21.3% from the current price of $10.72 [6][14]. Financial Overview - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 12,547 million RMB in 2023 to 14,391 million RMB in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.1% [5][8]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 2,341 million RMB in 2023 to 2,745 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.6% in 2025 [5][8]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 7.5 in 2023 to 5.8 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics [5][8]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 4.58 million shares, with a market capitalization of approximately 1.33 billion USD [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME US) with a target price raised to $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of $15.09 [2][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent Music's Q4 profits exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 74.6 billion RMB, aligning with market forecasts. The growth in music subscription revenue was robust, with a year-on-year increase of 18% and a total of 121 million music members, reflecting a net increase of 2 million members quarter-on-quarter [6][11]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 was 22.8 billion RMB, a 45% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 18%, primarily due to improved gross margins [6][11]. - The long-term targets for online music remain unchanged, aiming for 150 million members with an average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) of 15 RMB [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 30,930 million RMB, reflecting a 1% increase from previous estimates. The online music segment is expected to generate 25,313 million RMB, a 2% increase [3][12]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 9,845 million RMB, an 8% increase from prior estimates, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 31.8% [3][12]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at 8,611 million RMB, a 5% increase from previous forecasts, with an adjusted net profit margin of 27.8% [3][12]. Share Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 32.95%, with a 52-week high of $15.49 and a low of $9.46, indicating strong market performance [5][6]. Membership and Revenue Growth - The report notes that the monthly ARPPU for music subscriptions increased to 11.1 RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3% [6][11]. - Non-member revenue also saw a year-on-year increase of 12%, driven by diversified advertising [6][11]. Shareholder Returns - Tencent Music has announced a new $1 billion share repurchase plan and continues to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 26%, with a dividend yield of 1.2% [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 28.00, representing a potential upside of 2.6% from the current price of HKD 27.30 [1][4][19]. Core Insights - The online business is expected to exceed expectations in the second half of 2024, with projected revenue of RMB 3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, driven by a 9% growth in paid reading users [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 1.4 billion, with a stable outlook for core paid reading revenue and growth anticipated from derivative products and short dramas [2][7]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in visual adaptations and the expansion of short drama and derivative product offerings [2][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 8.1 billion, with online business revenue expected to reach RMB 4.1 billion, reflecting a 5% increase from previous estimates [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 1.3 billion, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 16.5% [3][21]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1.4 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 17.5% [3][21]. Business Segments - The core IP operations are expected to generate RMB 2.7 billion in revenue for 2025, a 14% increase from the previous year [2][13]. - The new media segment, including short dramas, is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with over 100 new works planned for release in 2024 [2][7]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its offline channel capabilities for IP derivative products, with a projected gross merchandise value (GMV) exceeding RMB 500 million in 2024 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Xiaopeng Motors (9868 HK), with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 41.6% from the current price of HKD 95.10 [1][3][14]. Core Insights - The automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, and the report is optimistic about the upcoming product cycle in 2025. Although revenue was slightly below expectations, the automotive gross margin was 10.0%, surpassing market expectations of 9-9.5% due to scale effects and efficient cost control [2][8]. - Xiaopeng Motors is expected to deliver 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, with March sales projected to be between 31,000 and 33,000 units, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase [2][8]. - The company is focusing on a diversified product strategy rather than relying on a single bestseller, with new models like the G6 and G9 expected to improve sales and gross margins [8]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year 2023, total revenue was RMB 30,676 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 40,866 million, representing a growth of 33.2% [7][16]. - The net loss for 2023 was RMB 10,376 million, which is expected to narrow to RMB 5,790 million in 2024 and further to RMB 613 million in 2025 [7][16]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue to RMB 86,172 million by 2025, with a projected gross profit of RMB 11,812 million [7][16]. Market Performance - Xiaopeng Motors' stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 103.86%, with a 52-week high of HKD 97.45 and a low of HKD 26.05 [5][14]. - The report highlights that the stock price pullback presents a good buying opportunity, reinforcing the "Buy" rating based on strong sales growth and improved gross margins [8][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, JunDa Co., Ltd. (002865 CH), with a target price of RMB 72.79, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current closing price of RMB 58.65 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's non-recurring performance met expectations, with a significant increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas revenue [2][7]. - The company experienced a 60.9% year-on-year revenue growth in 2023, but a projected decline of 46.7% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [3][15]. - The report highlights a rapid increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 24% of total revenue last year, up 19 percentage points year-on-year, with a remarkable 47% in Q4 [7][8]. - The company is focusing on improving production efficiency and reducing costs, with a target of increasing the average conversion efficiency of TOPCon batteries by over 0.5% this year [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 18,657 million in 2023, RMB 9,952 million in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 15,737 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 591 million in 2024 to RMB 1,718 million by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [3][15]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve significantly, with overseas gross margins reaching 9.1% in the second half of last year, compared to -6.2% domestically [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company ranks third in total shipments and first in N-type shipments in the industry, with a total shipment of 33.74 GW last year, a 13% increase year-on-year [7][8]. - The report notes that recent policy changes in distributed photovoltaic systems have led to a surge in demand, driving up prices for certain battery types [7][8]. - The company is also working on establishing a factory in Oman, although progress has been slower than expected, with plans to complete the project by the end of the year [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu (BIDU US) with a target price of 111.00, indicating a potential upside of 8.5% from the closing price of 102.27 [11]. Core Insights - Baidu's Wenxin large model 4.5 and X1 have been released, showcasing significant advancements in multi-modal capabilities and outperforming competitors like GPT 4.5 and DeepSeek-V3 in various benchmark tests [4][5]. - The daily API call volume for Wenxin large model is projected to reach 1.65 billion by December 2024, a 33-fold increase from 50 million in the same period last year [5]. - The report highlights that Baidu Cloud's revenue is expected to maintain a growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 20% anticipated in 2025, driven by the updates and open-source strategy of the Wenxin models [5]. Summary by Sections Product Development - Wenxin 4.5 features native multi-modal capabilities, significantly enhancing language understanding, generation, logic, and memory, with improvements in handling mixed data types such as text, images, and audio [2]. - Key technological upgrades include FlashMask dynamic attention masks for better long-text processing, multi-modal heterogeneous expert expansion to balance gradient contributions, and large-scale data construction based on knowledge points to enhance model knowledge density [2]. Cost Advantage - The API call pricing for Wenxin 4.5 is notably low, with input costs at 0.004 CNY per 1,000 tokens and output costs at 0.016 CNY per 1,000 tokens, which is less than 1% of GPT 4.5's pricing [2][7]. Market Performance - Following the release of Wenxin 4.5 and X1, Baidu's stock price increased by 13% on March 18, indicating positive market reception and the emerging value of AI cloud services as a second growth curve for the company [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 314.11, indicating a potential upside of 22.7% from the current price of RMB 256.00 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a global inventory replenishment cycle, with strong performance in revenue and net profit for 2024 aligning with forecasts. The company has demonstrated robust profitability and a high dividend payout ratio of 50%, reflecting confidence in its growth [1][4]. - The report highlights the acceleration of global capacity expansion, particularly with the upcoming commissioning of a factory in Hungary, which is expected to enhance local supply in Europe despite a temporary decline in overseas revenue due to slowing demand [4][5]. - The company’s production capacity is projected to increase by 22% year-on-year to 676 GWh in 2024, with an improved capacity utilization rate of 76% compared to 70% in 2023 [4][5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 362 billion, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to rise by 15% to RMB 50.7 billion. The gross margin is projected to improve to 24.4%, up 5.2 percentage points year-on-year [4][12]. - The report provides updated financial forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with revenues adjusted to RMB 447.2 billion and RMB 489.2 billion, respectively, reflecting a 1-2% increase from previous estimates. Net profit forecasts for the same years are RMB 62.9 billion and RMB 68.0 billion [4][12]. - The report also notes a change in accounting policy affecting gross margin projections, leading to a downward adjustment of 2.8 and 3.0 percentage points for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][5]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of -3.76%, with a 52-week high of RMB 299.00 and a low of RMB 169.00. The market capitalization stands at approximately RMB 1,124.4 billion [3][4].

Group 1: Economic Performance - China's industrial added value grew by 5.9% year-on-year in January-February 2025, slightly down from 6.2% in December 2024[2] - The manufacturing sector, as the main engine of economic growth, saw a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, outperforming mining (4.3%) and utilities (1.1%) sectors[2] - The service production index increased by 5.6% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from the entire year of 2024[2] Group 2: Consumer Market - Social retail sales rose by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, compared to 3.7% in December 2024[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles increased by 4.8% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy[2] - Categories such as communication equipment and home appliances saw significant growth, with retail sales increasing by 26.2% and 10.9% respectively[2] Group 3: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.1% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - Infrastructure investment rose by 5.6% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment increased by 9.0%[4] - Real estate development investment decreased by 9.8%, but the decline was less severe than the previous month's drop of 11.5%[4] Group 4: Policy Impact - The government announced a consumption stimulus plan, doubling the funding for the "old-for-new" policy from 150 billion RMB to 300 billion RMB[4] - Policies aimed at boosting consumer confidence, such as childcare subsidies, are expected to gradually take effect, enhancing market sentiment[4]

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the internet industry, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that consumption policies are driving growth across multiple categories, with a continued positive impact on performance expected in Q1 2025 [1][2]. - E-commerce growth is projected to continue, with an estimated GMV growth of 5% for the industry in 2025, driven by expanded subsidy programs and recovery in demand for home appliances [2][12]. - Specific company forecasts include Alibaba's GMV growth of 4%, JD's at 7%, Pinduoduo's at 13%, Kuaishou's at 12%, Douyin's at 25%, and WeChat Video's at 26% for 2025 [2][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Valuation Overview - Alibaba (BABA US) rated "Buy" with a target price of 165.0, current price at 141.1, FY25E EPS of 86.3, and a PE ratio of 11.8 [1]. - Pinduoduo (PDD US) rated "Buy" with a target price of 144.0, current price at 122.5, FY25E EPS of 104.4, and a PE ratio of 8.5 [1]. - JD (JD US) rated "Buy" with a target price of 62.0, current price at 43.2, FY25E EPS of 35.1, and a PE ratio of 8.9 [1]. - Kuaishou (1024 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 54.0, current price at 64.9, FY25E EPS of 5.0, and a PE ratio of 12.1 [1]. - Meituan (3690 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 226.0, current price at 173.4, FY25E EPS of 9.0, and a PE ratio of 17.9 [1]. E-commerce Performance - The adjusted year-on-year growth rate for physical e-commerce retail sales in January-February 2025 is 5.0%, compared to 3.8% in December 2024 [2][5]. - The expansion of the trade-in subsidy program for mobile phones has led to a 26% increase in communication equipment sales, while home appliances continue to show double-digit growth at 11% [2][6]. - The report notes a 22% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume in January-February 2025, attributed to e-commerce activities during holidays and user demand [10][12]. Company Updates - Alibaba's Taotian is focusing on growth through six optimization directions, including new product incentives and enhanced merchant support [2]. - Kuaishou's e-commerce data shows a 25% year-on-year increase in active merchants and a significant rise in GMV across various categories [2]. - JD's food delivery service has expanded to 126 cities, with over 300,000 quality restaurant partnerships, enhancing user engagement and shopping frequency [2].