Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating, setting a target price of HKD 64.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.6% from the current price of HKD 50.95 [2][5][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company is positioned as a premium AI stock in the Hong Kong market, with three main highlights constructing its competitive moat [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% from 2024 to 2027, with profitability anticipated to turn positive in 2026 [13][16][33]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a steady increase from RMB 3,083 million in 2022 to RMB 8,150 million by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.7% in 2022, 36.4% in 2023, and expected 24.9% in 2024 [4][19]. - The net profit is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 496 million in 2022 to a profit of RMB 251 million by 2026, indicating a significant turnaround [4][33]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 43-44% in the coming years, with a potential increase if hardware product margins improve [28][32]. Business Highlights - The "XianZhi AI Platform" is central to the company's strategy, having maintained the largest market share in China's machine learning platform sector for six consecutive years [11]. - The company has a diverse industry coverage, including finance, retail, manufacturing, and healthcare, with significant potential for further penetration [12][14]. - The integration of AI Agent technology is expected to enhance product capabilities and operational efficiency, driving further growth [15]. Valuation Insights - The current price corresponds to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.8 for 2025, which is below the average P/S ratios of comparable AI companies in both the US and China [17][57]. - The report suggests that the company’s valuation remains attractive, with a target price based on a P/S ratio of 4.5, reflecting the potential for valuation recovery [17][57]. Shareholder Structure and Market Dynamics - Following the unlocking of H shares, the shareholder structure has been optimized, contributing to increased trading volume and market interest [13][67]. - The company was included in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index, which is expected to further enhance its visibility and attractiveness to investors [52][67].

Employment Data - In February 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs, below the expected 160,000, and the previous value was revised down from 143,000 to 125,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, compared to the expected and previous rate of 4.0%[2] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, down from the expected and previous 62.6%[2] Wage and Hours - The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings fell to 4.0%, below the expected 4.1%, with the previous value revised from 4.1% to 3.9%[2][4] - The month-on-month growth rate of average hourly earnings was stable at 0.3%, matching expectations[2][4] - Average weekly hours worked remained at 34.1, slightly below the expected 34.2[2][4] Sector Analysis - Government sector jobs increased by 11,000, a significant drop from the revised 44,000 in January, reflecting the impact of government layoffs[4] - Manufacturing added 19,000 jobs, while the financial sector added 21,000 jobs, and social assistance and services added 63,000 jobs[4] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive months[4] Market Implications - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for interest rate cuts slightly increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in May rising to 66.1% from 51.3%[5] - Despite the slowdown in non-farm payrolls, the data still showed resilience, alleviating some recession concerns in the market[5] - The Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. economy remains robust, suggesting no immediate urgency for rate cuts[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 18.00 to HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% [1][2]. Core Insights - The revenue is expected to achieve low double-digit growth in 2025, driven by prior investments that enhance revenue growth. Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize as the company continues to invest in fulfillment efficiency and market expansion [2][6]. - The report has adjusted the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 upwards by 3.8% and 6.0%, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025 revenue is projected at RMB 202,053 million, up from RMB 194,624 million, marking a 3.8% increase [5]. - The company expects a revenue increase of 11% year-on-year in 2025, supported by external business growth [6]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 8,384 million, a 6.0% increase from the previous estimate of RMB 7,910 million [5]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to remain stable at 4.1% for 2025 [5][6]. - **Cost Structure**: - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 22,486 million, with a gross margin of 11.1% [5]. - Operating expenses are projected to increase, reflecting ongoing investments in personnel and automation [6]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 20.78% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 102,714.38 million [4]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 16.34 and HKD 7.55, respectively, indicating significant price movement over the past year [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD US, with a target price raised from $60 to $62, indicating a potential upside of 41.2% from the current price of $43.92 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - JD US has returned to double-digit revenue growth, with a 13% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4 2024, driven by various business segments achieving double-digit growth. The company expects this trend to continue into Q1 2025, supported by favorable policies and improved retail supply chain capabilities [1][6]. - The report projects a 7.3% revenue growth and an 8.5% profit growth for the year 2025, with adjustments made to revenue and earnings per share forecasts, increasing them by 3% and 5% respectively [1][6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, JD US reported total revenue of RMB 306.08 billion, with product sales revenue of RMB 246.50 billion, and a gross profit margin of 14.2% [6][7]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 11.29 billion, reflecting a 34% year-on-year increase, attributed to supply chain improvements and economies of scale [6][7]. - The company anticipates continued growth in the electric product category, with a projected revenue of RMB 591.93 billion for 2025, representing a 7.3% increase from the previous year [5][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 1,243.37 billion, with a projected growth rate of 7.3% [5][9]. - Adjusted operating profit for 2025 is expected to reach RMB 51.22 billion, with an operating profit margin of 4.1% [5][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 51.90 billion, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [5][9]. Market Position and Trends - JD US has seen a significant increase in active user numbers and order volumes, outpacing the overall retail market. The company has maintained a double-digit growth rate in active user numbers and shopping frequency [6][7]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government subsidies and policy support on the company's growth trajectory, particularly in the electric product segment [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, China Power (2380 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 3.72, reflecting a potential upside of 26.5% from the current price of HKD 2.94 [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a 53% increase in net profit for the year 2024, despite a downward adjustment in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 9.5% and 22.2% respectively due to lower-than-expected wind and solar generation [2][5]. - The dividend yield for 2024 and 2025 is projected to exceed 7%, making it an attractive investment opportunity despite the earnings adjustments [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 49,191 million, a decrease of 3.8% from previous estimates, while 2025 revenue is expected to be RMB 50,997 million, down 9.1% [4][16]. - Operating profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 12,438 million, reflecting a 6.4% decrease, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 14,012 million, down 16.3% [4][16]. - Net profit for 2024 is revised to RMB 4,072 million, a 9.5% reduction, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 4,857 million, down 22.2% [4][16]. Generation Capacity and Production Forecast - The company anticipates an 18.6% year-on-year increase in power generation for 2024, with hydropower generation significantly recovering by 52% [5][6]. - For 2025, the company expects a 3% decrease in unit fuel costs, but a 7% decline in the ignition price difference for thermal power due to changes in long-term electricity prices [5][6]. Valuation Summary - The target price of HKD 3.72 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with contributions from various segments: thermal power at RMB 8,980 million, hydropower at RMB 7,787 million, wind power at RMB 24,997 million, and solar power at RMB 19,776 million [10][14].

Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, with a fiscal deficit rate of approximately 4%, up from 3% in the previous year[2] - The fiscal deficit scale is projected to reach CNY 5.66 trillion, an increase of CNY 1.6 trillion compared to last year[2] - New local government special bonds are expected to total CNY 4.4 trillion, increasing by CNY 500 billion from the previous year[2] Monetary Policy and Market Stability - Monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose tone, with potential for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to be implemented in the second half of 2025[4] - The total new government debt for 2025 is projected to be CNY 11.86 trillion, an increase of CNY 2.9 trillion from last year, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy[5] Investment and Consumption - The central budget investment is set to increase to CNY 735 billion, focusing on strategic national projects and public welfare[8] - Measures to stimulate consumption include a CNY 300 billion special bond to support the replacement of old consumer goods, which has shown positive effects in 2024[8] Real Estate and Capital Markets - The report indicates signs of recovery in the real estate market, with an increasing proportion of cities showing positive month-on-month price changes[8] - The government emphasizes the importance of a stable capital market, aiming to deepen reforms and attract long-term funds[9] Technological and Industrial Policy - The government aims to enhance the digital economy and support the application of artificial intelligence across various sectors[12] - Future industry cultivation will focus on disruptive innovation areas such as biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G[12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile (175 HK) is "Buy" with a target price of 18.50 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 3.4% from the closing price of 17.90 HKD as of March 3, 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - Geely's AI Smart Technology Conference marked 2025 as the "Year of AI+Car," signifying a shift from "Car+AI" to "AI+Car," focusing on AI as the core of automotive transformation [2]. - The launch of the "Qianli Haohan" intelligent driving system, which includes five versions (H1 to H9) with capabilities ranging from basic assistance to full L3 autonomous driving, aims for mass production in the year [2]. - Geely's strategy emphasizes "safety equity," aiming to democratize high-level intelligent driving across all vehicle price segments, contrasting with competitors like BYD and Changan [2]. Summary by Sections AI and Intelligent Driving - Geely's new intelligent driving system, "Qianli Haohan," will be integrated into models like the Galaxy and China Star, with the H9 version being the first L3 autonomous driving solution ready for mass production [2]. - The system boasts a minimum of 100 TOPS computing power for the H1 version, with the H3 version set to feature urban driving capabilities [2]. Technological Trends - The conference highlighted three key technological trends: superhuman-machine interaction, integration of autonomous driving with execution, and the elevation of connected vehicle models [2]. - Collaborations with partners like Jieli Technology aim to enhance data generation for extreme driving scenarios and improve voice interaction experiences [2]. New Model Launches - The 2025 Galaxy E8 was launched with a promotional price range of 149,800 to 198,800 RMB, which is 16,000 RMB lower than the previous model [2]. - The new model features advanced technology, including a 45-inch 8K display and a Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295 chip, enhancing the user experience [2]. Competitive Positioning - Geely's strategic focus on in-house capabilities aims to reduce reliance on external suppliers, enhancing its competitive edge in the intelligent vehicle market [2]. - The company plans to leverage its Agent OS cockpit operating system for cross-domain collaboration and personalized experiences [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company,阅文集团 (772 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 28.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 24.85 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the delay in the 新丽 project impacts the 2024 profit expectations, while growth is anticipated in short dramas and derivative IP businesses [2]. - The company is expected to face a net loss of RMB 150-250 million for 2024, primarily due to non-cash goodwill impairment related to the acquisition of 新丽传媒 [5]. - Revenue expectations for 2024 have been slightly reduced by 1% to RMB 7.7 billion, with online business remaining stable and core IP operations expected to grow by 34% [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in core IP operations and the impact of AI technology on cost reduction and efficiency [5][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2026 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 7,012 million - 2024E: RMB 7,695 million - 2025E: RMB 7,882 million - 2026E: RMB 8,220 million - The expected net profit for 2024 is RMB 1,139 million, with a projected increase to RMB 1,445 million in 2025 and RMB 1,568 million in 2026 [3][8][13]. - The report notes a decrease in the adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 by 18% to RMB 1 billion, reflecting a profit margin of 15% [5][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the 2025 adjusted net profit expectation to RMB 14 billion, applying a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times, leading to a target price of HKD 28 [5][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 1.14 for 2024, increasing to RMB 1.41 in 2025 and RMB 1.54 in 2026 [3][8][13]. - The report indicates a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 for 2024, decreasing to 16.5 in 2025 and 15.2 in 2026 [3][8][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 4.28, indicating a potential upside of 30.1% from the current price of HKD 3.29 [1][4][19]. Core Insights - The company has faced performance challenges due to impairment losses, with a projected revenue of RMB 21.9 billion and a net profit of RMB 1.01 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9% and 74% respectively [2][7]. - The photovoltaic glass prices have rebounded strongly due to supply contraction and recovering demand, with a significant price increase of 17% observed in March [2][7]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the company, driven by supply-side reforms and expected policy measures from the government to address structural issues in the industry [7][19]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 25.8 billion in 2023, RMB 23.4 billion in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 30.1 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.5% [3][16]. - Net profit is expected to recover from RMB 1.09 billion in 2024 to RMB 4.2 billion by 2027, with significant growth anticipated in the following years [3][16]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from RMB 0.12 in 2024 to RMB 0.46 in 2027, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [3][16]. Business Segment Performance - The photovoltaic glass segment is expected to see a volume increase from 653,000 tons in 2023 to 958,000 tons by 2027, despite a decline in average selling price [9][16]. - The photovoltaic power generation segment is projected to maintain stable revenue, with a slight decrease in gross margin from 68.5% in 2023 to 65.3% by 2027 [9][16]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant reduction in global nominal daily melting capacity from 123,000 tons to 97,000 tons, which has contributed to a favorable supply-demand balance in the photovoltaic glass market [7][9]. - New policies in distributed photovoltaic and renewable energy pricing are expected to enhance project profitability, driving demand in the short term [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 1.17, indicating a potential upside of 46.3% from the current price of HKD 0.80 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's core performance for 2024 is expected to exceed expectations, driven by a significant increase in electricity sales volume in the second half of the year, with a projected sales volume growth of 17% to 4,472 GWh [2][7]. - The new electricity pricing policy is anticipated to stabilize the prices of existing projects, reducing uncertainty in profitability [7]. - The company is transitioning its debt from HKD to RMB, resulting in a significant decrease in financing costs, with the average borrowing rate expected to drop to below 3% by 2025 [7]. - The report forecasts a moderate growth in dividends per share from 2025 to 2027, with an attractive current dividend yield of 7.7% [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 2,435 million in 2023 to RMB 2,606 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to decline from RMB 993 million in 2023 to RMB 858 million in 2024, a decrease of 12% [3][15]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 0.10 in 2024, with a recovery to RMB 0.12 in 2025 [3][15]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 7.9 in 2024, decreasing to 6.5 in 2025 [3][15]. Key Business Metrics - The company plans to add 860 MW of new capacity in 2024, with total installed capacity expected to reach 4,555 MW [9]. - The average on-grid electricity price is projected to decline from RMB 0.67 in 2023 to RMB 0.61 in 2024 [9]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 67.9% in 2023 to 65.6% in 2024, with a slight recovery anticipated in subsequent years [9][16].