Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 15.60, indicating a potential upside of 23.0% from the current closing price of HKD 12.68 [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter performance slightly missed expectations, but the premiumization of beer has shown unexpected resilience. The sales for 2023 met expectations with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, while normalized net profit grew by 7% to USD 917 million, which was 4% below consensus estimates [1][5]. - The gross margin increased by 35 basis points due to a 6.2% rise in revenue per hectoliter outpacing a 5.0% increase in costs per hectoliter. The commodity prices have shifted from headwinds to mild tailwinds since 2024 [1][5]. - The dividend per share increased by 40% year-on-year, with a payout ratio rising to 82% from 58% in 2022, which is a positive surprise. Future payout ratios are expected to remain at 75% or above [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, sales reached USD 6.856 billion, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year increase. The normalized net profit was USD 917 million, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [2][5]. - The EBITDA for 2023 was USD 2.023 billion, showing a 4.7% increase compared to the previous year [5][10]. - The average selling price in the Asia Pacific region increased by 11%, while sales volume decreased by 2% [1][5]. Regional Insights - In the Western Asia Pacific region, premium beer showed more resilience than core/value beer, with average selling price/sales volume/sales revenue growth of 11%/-2%/9% respectively in Q4 2023. The strong growth in high-end and super-premium brands was driven by channel recovery and geographic expansion [1][6]. - In the Eastern Asia Pacific region, competition from Japanese brands has led to a decline in sales volume in South Korea, with average selling price/sales volume/sales revenue growth of 11%/-3%/8% respectively in Q4 2023 [1][6]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the premiumization trend in Chinese beer is structural and can withstand macroeconomic cycles. Budweiser is well-positioned to capture a significant share of market growth [1][5]. - The target price adjustment reflects a shift in the earnings per share valuation from 2024 to an average of 2024-25, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times, based on a compound annual growth rate of 17% for earnings per share from 2024 to 2026 [1][5].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for NVIDIA (NVDA US) [9] Core Views - NVIDIA is the best-performing S&P 500 component in 2023 and 2024 YTD, driven by the rapid rise in demand for generative AI-related accelerator chips [1] - The market may not fully appreciate the long-term benefits of generative AI for NVIDIA, and the company's data center business is expected to maintain strong performance through 2025 [1][12] - NVIDIA's valuation remains at historical lows, with a forward P/E of 35x compared to the historical average of 45x [2] - The company's product iteration is accelerating, further solidifying its competitive position, especially with the upcoming release of H200 and B100 AI data center accelerator chips in 2024 [6][8] Financial Projections - FY1Q25E revenue is projected at $25.18 billion, above the company's guidance of $24 billion and Visible Alpha consensus of $24.41 billion [2][13] - FY25E revenue is forecasted at $113.1 billion, up 86% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $25.04, up 93% YoY [2][18] - Data center revenue is expected to reach $96.9 billion in FY25E, up 104% YoY, and $120.3 billion in FY26E, up 24% YoY [21][38] Market Performance - NVIDIA's stock price has risen 58.92% YTD, with a 52-week high of $790.92 and a low of $226.98 [3] - The company's market capitalization stands at $1.97 trillion, with an average daily trading volume of 38.93 million shares [3] Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA's GPGPU + CUDA software approach has a high barrier to entry, offering both computational efficiency and flexibility, while competitors like AMD face challenges with open platform compatibility [6][8] - AMD's MI300 GPU, released in 4Q23, is expected to achieve $3.5 billion in sales in 2024, but NVIDIA is likely to maintain a dominant market share in the AI accelerator chip market [65][67] Industry Trends - Downstream cloud service providers are expected to increase capital expenditures by 25% in 2024, with over $300 billion likely allocated to AI accelerator chips, primarily from NVIDIA [22][45] - Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google are leading the charge in AI infrastructure investments, with Microsoft contributing 140% of the YoY growth in capital expenditures among major cloud providers in 2023 [22][45] Product Roadmap - NVIDIA is set to release the H200 and B100 AI accelerator chips in 2024, with the H200 offering improved memory bandwidth and capacity over the H100, and the B100 expected to double the AI performance of the H200 [59][78] - The H20, a replacement for the H800 in the Chinese market, is priced at $12,000-$15,000, slightly below Huawei's Ascend 910B [60] Valuation and Risks - NVIDIA's current valuation is considered low relative to its historical average, with a forward P/E of 35x compared to the historical average of 45x [2][43] - The primary risk to NVIDIA's stock price is the sustainability of its data center business, but the report remains optimistic about the company's ability to maintain strong performance through 2025 [44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $9.10, indicating a potential upside of 17.3% from the current price of $7.76 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue increase of 21% year-on-year to 760 million RMB, surpassing both the analyst and Bloomberg consensus by 5% [1]. - The growth was primarily driven by the K12 business's new customer acquisition and accelerated class renewals, while the impact from adjustments in the university and adult education segments was less than anticipated [1]. - The company has a cash reserve of 4 billion RMB as of the end of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 260 million RMB [1]. - For 2024, the company expects a revenue growth rate of 28%-31% in Q1, benefiting from the high collection growth in Q4 and the winter vacation peak season [1]. - The overall revenue forecast for 2024 is set to exceed 40%, reaching approximately 4.19 billion RMB, with significant growth expected in non-subject skills, high school, and university adult education segments [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at approximately 2.5 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% [1][12]. - The adjusted net loss for Q4 was 100 million RMB, better than the expected loss of 140 million RMB [1]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 102 million RMB in 2024, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach 0.39 RMB [3][12]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 41.5%, 28.4%, and 18.8%, respectively [3][12]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 1.18 billion USD, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 114.36% [5].

交银国际研究 公司更新 汽车 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年2月27日 港元139.90 港元192.81↓ +37.8% 理想汽车 (2015 HK) 4 季度利润大超预期，今年 2 季度销量有望环比大幅增长，维持买入  2023 年 4 季度利润大超预期。4 季度理想汽车营收 417 亿元人民币（下 个股评级 同），高于市场/我们预期6.8%/5.7%，同比增长136.4%，环比增长 20.3%。 买入 4 季度汽车毛利率环比升 1.5 个百分点至 22.7%，带动综合毛利率升至 23.5%， 创下季度新高。4 季度 SG&A/研发费用占收入比例从 3 季度的 7.3%/8.1%微升至 7.8%/8.4%，主要是受新车型发布和推广所影响。4季度 1年股价表现 净利 56.6 亿元，扣除一次性收入净利 36.7 亿元，远高于市场/我们预期 54.3%/45.5%。4 季度现金和等价物达 1,036.7 亿元，自由现金流为146 亿 2015 HK 100% MSCI中国指数 元，维持稳健。 80% 60%  1季度指引符合预期：受去年12月透支需求和春节影响，公司指引1 季度 40% 交付量为 1 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年2月26日 港元13.98 港元16.00↓ +14.4% 移卡 (9923 HK) 支付业务调整，到店竞争加剧，利润或不及此前预期；下调至中性  下调2023年全年收入及利润预期，经调整EBITDA快速增长趋势不变。我 个股评级 们下调2023 年总收入预期11%至39 亿元（人民币），下同），同比增 中性↓ 14%，主要因：1）支付业务一次性调整影响及费率短期承压；2）受竞争 影响，到店业务增长承压。基于收入下调，我们相应调整归母净利润预期 1年股价表现 至8000万元，对应净利率2%，对比此前预期的1.5亿元/4%。剔除一次性 影响，我们预计经调整EBITDA同比增160%至5.5亿元，维持扩张趋势， 9923 HK 10% MSCI中国指数 受益于支付业务扩张及到店亏损收窄。 0% -10%  支付GPV增势不变，费率短期承压。我们预计2023年支付规模（GPV）2.8 -20% 万亿元，同比增26%，与此前预期基本一致，主要受益于线下消费复苏及 -30% -40% 代理商渠道扩张。但考虑：1）259号文件全面实施，收单合规化发展 ...

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2024 年 2 月 24 日 关于会议精神，我们理解如下：本次会议强调了推动新一轮大规模设备更新和 消费品以旧换新的重要性，以及有效降低全社会物流成本的必要性，旨在通过 结构性改革来增加企业的竞争力，推动经济持续健康发展。同时，会议明确了 进一步加强对经济结构调整的推进力度，促进国内消费、提高工业效率及优化 物流体系，以提高有效需求，优化产能机构，激发经济增长的新动能，并通过 技术更新和消费升级来推动经济向高质量发展转型。 供给侧：推动先进产能比重持续提升、鼓励先进、淘汰落后，有利于推动 产业升级，提高企业竞争力。会议提出政策的组合拳旨在提高先进产能比 重，增加高质量耐用消费品在居民生活中的占比，从而显著提高国民经济 循环的质量和水平。同时，政策实施将坚持市场主导与政府引导相结合， 鼓励技术进步与淘汰落后产能，以及通过标准引领实现产业的有序提升。 这些措施反映了对当前经济形势的全面应对策略，并通过优化产业结构来 推动经济高质量发展。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://rese ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price adjusted to HKD 29.00, indicating a potential upside of 13.9% from the current price of HKD 25.45 [1][14]. Core Views - The report highlights a downward revision of the 2023 revenue and profit expectations for the company, projecting a total revenue of RMB 7 billion, a year-on-year decline of 8%, primarily due to adjustments in online business channels and delays in key IP projects. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 1.1 billion, a 20% decrease year-on-year, with a profit margin of 15%, down by 3 percentage points [1][2]. - Despite the challenges, the company maintains a rich reserve of IP projects for 2024, with anticipated strong performance from key adaptations and a robust pipeline of popular IP adaptations [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials for 2023 include: - Revenue: RMB 7,004 million, down 8.2% year-on-year - Adjusted net profit: RMB 1,083 million, down 20.1% year-on-year - Earnings per share (EPS): RMB 1.06, with a projected decline of 28% [3][12]. - For 2024, the company expects a revenue increase to RMB 7,579 million, with a net profit forecast of RMB 1.387 billion, reflecting a recovery in profitability [3][12]. Business Operations - The online business segment is projected to generate RMB 3.98 billion in 2023, a decline of 9% year-on-year, while the IP operation revenue is expected to decrease by 8% due to project delays [2][3]. - The company is exploring short drama formats, which may provide additional revenue opportunities, as evidenced by the success of the fantasy short drama "万道龙皇" [2][3]. Valuation - The report suggests a valuation based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for 2024, leading to a target price adjustment from HKD 36 to HKD 29. The current price corresponds to a 1.2x PEG ratio for 2024, compared to the industry average of 1.0x [2][3].

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年2月22日 港元355.60 港元440.00↑ +23.7% 携程集团 (9961 HK) 2023 年 4 季度净利超预期； 2024 年收入/利润指引均更乐观  2023年4季度收入略高于我们/彭博一致预期，调整后净利润超我们/彭博 个股评级 一致预期71%/70%。总收入103亿元（人民币，下同），同比/较2019年 买入 同期增 105%/24%，其中住宿/交通/旅游度假/商旅为 2019 年同期的 132%/118%/88%/170%。调整后净利润27亿元，净利率26%，对比2019/ 1年股价表现 去年同期14%/10%，得益于交叉销售、经营效率提升及有效控费。调整后 9961 HK 研发/行政费用占收比同比下降13/7个百分点，市场恢复下营销活动保持 30% MSCI中国指数 投入，营销费用占收比稳定在22%。 20% 10%  4季度业绩亮点：1）内地酒店预订同比/较2019年增130%+/60%+。用户 0% 圈层扩大，50岁以上用户较2019年增90%。2）出境机酒预订恢复至2019 -10% 年同期的80%+，领先 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Meituan with a target price of **HKD 93**, implying a potential upside of **16.6%** [1][2] Core Views - Meituan's revenue is expected to grow by **17%** in 2024, driven by its strong position in the local services and food delivery sectors [1] - The company's core business is valued at **15x P/E**, with a conservative approach excluding the valuation contribution from new businesses [1] - Meituan's competitive environment is considered better than that of e-commerce platforms like Alibaba and JD, with higher user stickiness and growth potential [1][2] - The report highlights that Meituan's valuation should be between Alibaba/JD (8-10x P/E) and Pinduoduo (20x P/E) [1][13] Business Performance and Outlook Local Services and Food Delivery - Meituan's food delivery business remains stable, with a unit economics (UE) of **RMB 1.2 per order** in 2023, expected to maintain **RMB 1.15-1.2 per order** in 2024 despite AOV (Average Order Value) pressure [41][46] - The food delivery GTV (Gross Transaction Value) is projected to grow by **18%** in 2023, reaching **RMB 940 billion**, with **14%** and **12%** growth expected in 2024 and 2025, respectively [79] - Meituan's local services business is expected to grow by **35%** in GTV in 2024, with a **10%+** profit growth, despite increased competition [51][76] New Businesses - Meituan's new businesses, including community group buying, are expected to continue reducing losses, with a projected loss of **RMB 20.4 billion** in 2023, slightly higher than the initial estimate of **RMB 19.3 billion** [40][87] - The community group buying business has reached **490 million users** as of September 2023, but its contribution to the core business remains limited [87] Competitive Landscape - Meituan's market share in local services is estimated at **71%**, compared to Douyin's **21%**, with Meituan's scale being **3.4x** larger than Douyin's after considering redemption rates [76][78] - The report emphasizes that Meituan's user stickiness and merchant loyalty are stronger than Douyin's, with Douyin's local life services contributing minimally to its overall profitability [2][53] Valuation and Market Comparison - Meituan's valuation is considered reasonable at **15-20x P/E** for its core business, given its stable growth and competitive advantages [22] - The report compares Meituan's valuation with other internet platforms, noting that Meituan's PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) ratio is below **1**, similar to Pinduoduo and Kuaishou [91] Industry Insights - The local services market is estimated to have a **RMB 10 trillion** traditional industry size, with significant growth potential as online penetration increases [76] - The report highlights that Meituan's non-standardized services and small-to-medium local merchants are less likely to be impacted by competition compared to standardized services like branded restaurants and entertainment [98]