交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年2月29日 美元103.31 美元140.00 +35.5% 百度 (BIDU US) 2023 年 4 季度业绩符合预期，大模型商业化持续推进  2023年4季度业绩：收入表现基本符合预期，调整后利润超我们/彭博一 个股评级 致市场预期44%/21%。总收入350亿元（人民币，下同），同比/环比增 买入 6%/1%，调整后净利润78亿元，净利率22%，同比提升6个百分点。 2023 年全年收入1346亿元，同比增9%，核心业务增长保持韧性，调整后净利 润287亿元，同比增39%，得益于持续关注运营效率及战略资源分配。 1年股价表现 BIDU US  百度核心亮点：百度核心收入275亿元，同比增7%，调整后运营利润同 20% MSCI中国指数 15% 比增13%，对应利润率23% ，同比提升2个百分点。 1）广告收入增6%， 10% 受线下相关行业如旅游、医疗拉动；2）云收入恢复双位数增长，同比增 5% 0% 11%，利润持续优化；3）萝卜快跑单量83.9万，同比增49%，武汉无安 -5% -10% 全员单量占比进一步提升至45%，是UE ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Youdao (DAO US), with a target price of $5.30, indicating a potential upside of 21.6% from the current price of $4.36 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company's business health has improved, leading to better-than-expected profits. In Q4 2023, total revenue increased by 2% year-on-year to 1.48 billion RMB, surpassing market expectations [1][2]. - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by the advertising business, which saw a significant increase of 97% year-on-year, while learning services and smart hardware revenues declined by 3% and 45%, respectively [1]. - The adjusted net profit reached 69 million RMB, doubling from the previous year, as the company focused on improving business health and profitability [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, total revenue was 1.48 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 2%. The revenue breakdown showed learning services at 784 million RMB, smart hardware at 222 million RMB, and advertising at 474 million RMB [1][6]. - The gross margin decreased by 3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the proportion of learning services [1][6]. - The company expects total revenue in Q1 2024 to grow by 16% year-on-year, with learning services, hardware, and advertising projected to increase by 10%, 10%, and 45%, respectively [1][7]. Revenue Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024 estimates total revenue to reach 6.32 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.2% [3][11]. - The company anticipates high school education revenue to grow by 25-30% in 2024, driven by strong demand and quality supply [2][3]. Valuation Adjustments - The report adjusts revenue expectations for high school and advertising upwards while lowering forecasts for literacy and hardware. The target price remains at $5.30, with a valuation method that excludes the impact of literacy business [2][3]. - The valuation for the high school business is set at 15 times the 2024 earnings, which is below the online education sector average of 20 times due to lower growth expectations compared to peers [2].

| --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 评级定义 | | | 分析员个股评级定义 : | 分析员行业评级定义： | | 买入： 预期个股未来12个月的总回报高于相关行业。 | 领先： 分析员预期所覆盖行业未来12个月的表现相对于大盘 标竿指数 具吸引力 。 | | 中性： 预期个股未来 12 个月的总回报与相关行业 一致 。 | 同步： 分析员预期所覆盖行业未来12个月的表现与大盘标竿 | | 沽出： 预期个股未来12个月的总回报低于相关行业 | 指数一致。 | | 无评级： 对于个股未来 12 个月的总回报与相关行业的比较， | 落后： 分析员预期所覆盖行业未来12个月的表现相对于大盘 | | 分析员 并无确 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for the company with a target price of HKD 10.40, indicating a potential downside of 10.8% from the current price of HKD 11.66 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 net profit and cash balance fell below expectations, with sales growth meeting projections but net profit growth lagging significantly behind market expectations [1][2]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to several one-off factors, including inventory write-downs, goodwill impairment from past acquisitions, and increased financial costs due to currency depreciation [1]. - The cash balance decreased from RMB 2.1 billion in June 2023 to RMB 1.37 billion by the end of 2023, raising concerns among investors about the company's liquidity and refinancing needs in 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a sales revenue growth of approximately 9%, aligning with expectations, while the adjusted net profit growth was in the low single digits, significantly below the anticipated 24% [1][5]. - The breakdown of revenue by segment showed strong double-digit growth in adult nutrition and pet nutrition, while infant nutrition experienced a decline of 10-20% due to intensified competition during the transition to new national standards [1][5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 13.79 billion in 2023, with a forecasted growth rate of 8% for 2024 and 7.4% for 2025 [5][8]. Market Context - The report highlights that the company's stock performance has been relatively resilient due to strong sales momentum in nutritional supplements during the first nine months of 2023, despite the overall weak performance in the infant nutrition segment [2][8]. - The company is expected to hold an analyst briefing on March 27, 2024, which may provide further insights into its performance and strategic direction [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for NIO Inc. is maintained at "Neutral" [2][8]. Core Insights - NIO's Q4 revenue exceeded expectations at 17.1 billion RMB, but the net loss was larger than anticipated at 5.368 billion RMB, primarily due to increased operating expenses [1][2]. - The company delivered 50,045 vehicles in Q4, a decrease of 9.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 7.5% [1][6]. - NIO's cash and cash equivalents increased to 57.3 billion RMB following a $2.2 billion investment from an Abu Dhabi investment firm [1][2]. - The company expects vehicle deliveries in Q1 2024 to be between 31,000 and 33,000 units, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Financial Overview - NIO's revenue for 2023 is projected to be 55.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.9% [5][9]. - The net loss for 2023 is expected to be 20.844 billion RMB, which is higher than previous market expectations [5][9]. - The forecast for 2024 and 2025 anticipates a year-on-year sales growth of 19.1% and 32.5%, reaching 190,000 and 252,000 vehicles respectively [2][5]. Market Position and Strategy - NIO plans to launch its sub-brand "Alps" in the second half of 2024, which is expected to boost sales with a competitive pricing strategy targeting the mass market [1][2]. - The company has no new vehicle launches planned for 2024, which may limit sales recovery in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The anticipated launch of the "Alps" SUV, priced around 250,000 RMB, is expected to compete with Tesla's Model Y and support sales improvement in the latter half of the year [1][2].

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月1日 港元90.45 港元104.00↑ +15.0% 云音乐 (9899 HK) 成本优化好于预期，利润释放趋势不变  2023年下半年利润超预期。2023年下半年云音乐收入39.6亿元（人民币， 个股评级 下同），同比降16%，环比增1%，与我们/市场预期一致。毛利率同/环比 买入 优化13/4个百分点，受益于在线音乐规模效应、版权成本优化以及社交 收入分成比例收窄。经调整净利润为 4.9 亿元，好于我们和市场预期的 3.0亿元，主要因毛利率改善及利息收入高于预期。 1年股价表现 9899 HK  2023下半年业务亮点：1）会员订阅收入同比增23%，得益于会员规模增 30% MSCI中国指数 加（同比+19%，环比净增 470 万），及月人均付费（ARPPU）持续优化 20% 10% （同/环比+3%/2%至7元）。2）品牌/效果广告拓展新客户，激励广告下 0% 半年开始贡献收入增量。3）强化播客/有声书等多元化内容供给，2023年 -10% 长音频收听时长同比增71%。4）尽管社交娱乐收入受业务调整影响同比 -20% 降42% ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 新能源 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年2月29日 港元3.83 港元5.93↑ +54.8% 信义光能 (968 HK) 光伏玻璃毛利率大超预期，行业供给增长继续放缓，维持买入  下半年光伏玻璃毛利率/业绩大超预期：公司去年实现收入/归母净利 个股评级 266/41.9亿港元，同比增长30%/10%，下半年实现归母净利28.0亿港元， 同比/环比增长46%/101%，高于我们/市场预期17%/19%。受新增产能推 买入 动，去年公司光伏玻璃销量增长49%，收入增长33%至235亿港元，其中 下半年环比增长22%，由于售价上涨和天然气采购价格过高等一次性因素 消除导致成本下降，下半年分部毛利率环比大幅提升 11.2 个百分点至 1年股价表现 26.4%，高于我们预期4个百分点，为2021年下半年以来新高。去年光伏 发电收入增长8%至30亿港元，毛利率下降1.9个百分点至68.5%。 968 HK 恒生指数 20%  巩固玻璃龙头地位，多晶硅业务有望具备成本竞争力：公司去年新增 10% 0% 6000吨光伏玻璃产能，仅比计划少1000吨，兑现度远高于同业，年底产 -10% 能增至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 15.80, indicating a potential upside of 56.7% from the current price of HKD 10.08 [1][23]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of the 2024 fiscal year decreased by 25% year-on-year to HKD 17 billion, primarily due to a decline in deliverable projects. However, core profit from ongoing operations increased by 12% to HKD 4.86 billion, attributed to improved profit margins and cost control measures [1][6]. - The company anticipates a 40-50% increase in transaction volume in the Hong Kong market following policy relaxations, and plans to accelerate sales of its projects in Kai Tak and Wong Chuk Hang, with approximately 2,500 units available for sale [2][6]. - Rental income from both Hong Kong and mainland China showed growth, with increases of 17.0% and 3.7% respectively. The overall operating profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 65.6% [2][7]. - The company has raised its target for disposing of non-core assets to HKD 8 billion from the previous HKD 6 billion [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of the 2024 fiscal year, the company's revenue from property development fell by 40.2% to HKD 6.74 billion, while operating profit margin surged by 26.7 percentage points to 58.6% [6][8]. - The rental income segment reported a 12.0% increase, with Hong Kong rental income rising by 17.0% and mainland rental income by 3.7% [7][8]. - The company expects a compound annual growth rate of approximately 23% in rental income from 2024 to 2026 [2][6]. Financial Data Overview - The company's projected revenue for the fiscal year 2024 is HKD 68.43 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 28.1%. Core profit is expected to drop to HKD 3.23 billion, a decrease of 47.3% [5][24]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 7.9 for 2024, with a dividend yield of 6.4% [5][24]. - The net debt ratio is expected to be around 50.6% in the coming years, indicating a relatively high level of leverage compared to industry peers [24].

交银国际研究 公司更新 新能源 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年2月29日 港元1.09 港元1.16↓ +6.4% 信义能源 (3868 HK) 业绩低于预期，弃光和电价风险加大，维持中性  天气、弃光导致售电量欠佳，业绩低于预期：公司去年实现归母净利9.93 个股评级 亿港元，同比增长2.2%，其中下半年4.26亿港元，同比/环比+22.3%/-24.8% 中性 ，低于我们/市场预期25%/27%，主要是由于售电量因天气、弃光等因素低 于预期。售电量同比增长19.6%至3817吉瓦时，其中下半年仅同比/环比增 长14.1%/2.7%，全年平均利用小时下降2.5%。市场电量占比13%，综合考 1年股价表现 虑绿电交易溢价和市场化交易折价，相比标杆电价仍有溢价。毛利率同比 下降2.7个百分点至67.9%，其中下半年同比/环比下降2.6/4.7个百分点至 3868 HK 恒生指数 10% 65.5%。全年每股股息减少60%至0.06港元，派息比例50%。 0% -10%  收购规模不及预期，融资利率继续上升。公司去年仅从母公司收购637兆 -20% 瓦项目，低于此前0.7-1吉瓦的指引。公司今年计划收购 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) with a revised target price of HKD 110.1, representing a potential upside of 41.2% from the current price of HKD 78.00 [1][2] Core Views - The company's 2024 interim results were stable, with a slight increase in total revenue by 0.4% YoY to HKD 27.5 billion, while core net profit declined by 5.9% to HKD 8.9 billion, in line with Bloomberg consensus [1] - Property development revenue fell by 23.5% YoY to HKD 3.87 billion due to a 60% decline in mainland project deliveries, partially offset by a 25% increase in Hong Kong property development revenue [1] - Rental income increased by 1.7% YoY to HKD 8.94 billion, with retail rental income growing by 3.5%, supported by the relaxation of travel restrictions and a recovery in tourism [1] - Hotel revenue surged by 48% YoY to HKD 2.76 billion, with operating profit turning positive at HKD 430 million compared to a loss of HKD 63 million in the previous year [1] - The company revised its full-year sales target downward to HKD 23 billion from HKD 33 billion due to delayed project launches, with seven projects scheduled for launch in the second half of the year [1] Financial Data Summary - Revenue for FY2024E is projected to grow by 14.2% YoY to HKD 81.33 billion, with core net profit expected to increase by 5.3% to HKD 25.15 billion [3] - Core EPS for FY2024E is forecasted at HKD 8.68, a 5.3% YoY increase, with a P/E ratio of 9.0x [3] - The company's net asset value per share is estimated at HKD 210.76 for FY2024E, with a P/B ratio of 0.37x [3] - Dividend yield for FY2024E is expected to be 5.6%, with a payout ratio of 50% [3] Property Development and Rental Performance - Hong Kong property development revenue increased by 25% YoY to HKD 3.61 billion, driven by project deliveries including Grand YOHO 2 and Wetland Season Bay 2 [1] - Mainland property development revenue declined by 60% YoY to HKD 1.59 billion, impacting overall development revenue [1] - Retail rental income is expected to continue growing in the second half of 2024, supported by the relaxation of travel restrictions and a recovery in tourism [1] Valuation and Target Price Adjustment - The target price was revised downward to HKD 110.1 from HKD 127.6, based on a 45% discount to the revised NAV estimate of HKD 200.21, primarily due to adjustments in office property valuations [2] - The revised target price reflects a 41.2% potential upside from the current price, supported by the company's strong mid-market property portfolio and recovery in rental income [2]