债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券分析】 再见 2025：信用债复盘 ——2025 年债市复盘系列之二 2、监管政策：2025 年，中央支持继续完善和落实一揽子化债方案，增量政策 相对有限。一是要求落实落细债务置换政策，二是将不新增隐性债务作为"铁 的纪律"，三是加快剥离地方融资平台政府融资功能，推动市场化转型，四是 加快消化清理地方政府拖欠企业账款。 ❖ 二、房地产：年末万科债券展期略超市场预期，政策持续推动市场止跌回稳 1、热点事件：2025 年，深铁集团为万科提供超 200 亿元借款，以助力其兑付 公开市场债券本息，但《框架协议》下的额度所剩无几，万科债券兑付面临流 动性紧张问题，年末万科公告债券展期，持有人会议仅通过延长宽限期议案。 2、监管政策：2025 年，房地产政策从需求、供给、房企端共同发力，持续推 动市场"止跌回稳"，构建市场发展新模式。需求端，以结构性调控为主，要 求充分释放刚性和改善性住房需求潜力；供给端，高质量开展城市更新，加力 推进"好房子"建设；企业端，支持房企合理融资需求，防范其债务违约风险。 ❖ 三、金融：中航产融、天安财险、九台农商引关注，积极防范金融领域风险 1、热点 ...

1 月，央行暂停国债买卖，资金面收敛使得机构博弈资本利得的顺畅逻辑受阻， 负 carry 环境下短端品种出现明显调整压力，长端下行放缓。 2 月，资金紧势远超预期，叠加权益、基本面等多重利空，债市做多逻辑有所 松动，短端利率大幅上行开始传导至长端，收益率曲线平坦化上移。 3 月，两会经济主题发布会央行态度偏鹰压制债市情绪，收益率上行至年内高 点 1.89%，随后税期和季末时点央行投放偏积极，债市呈现企稳修复态势。 债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 再见 2025：利率债复盘 ——2025 年债市复盘系列之一 ❖ 第三阶段：关税摩擦与稳增长政策博弈，收益率下台阶后转向震荡 4 月，"对等关税"幅度超预期，国内经济预期有所下修，债市交易经济走弱和 宽松预期，收益率自 1.80%经历两日大幅下行后至 1.64%，此后转向震荡。 5 月，降准降息、降低大行存款挂牌利率先后落地，债市演绎利多出尽，同时 关税摩擦阶段性缓和，提振风险偏好，收益率震荡上行突破 1.7%。 6 月，超四万亿存单到期，央行月内两次操作买断式逆回购释放"宽货币"信 号，中美达成新协议叠加陆家嘴论坛主要聚焦监管问题，收益率小幅下行，回 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Zhengte (001238) for the first time [1] Core Views - The company has successfully transformed its flagship product, the "Starry Canopy," into a best-seller and aims to evolve from a single product focus to a platform brand through replicating its successful product methodology and channel asset reuse [6][7] - The company is positioned as a leader in the outdoor canopy industry, with significant growth expected due to innovative product iterations and strong channel partnerships [6][8] - The report anticipates robust revenue growth driven by the successful introduction of the Starry Canopy into major retail channels like Costco and Sam's Club, with projected net profits increasing significantly from 2025 to 2027 [9][8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,237 million in 2024 to 2,945 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.4% [2] - The net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 14 million in 2024 to a profit of 235 million by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from -0.13 in 2024 to 2.12 in 2027, indicating a strong turnaround [2] Company Overview - Zhejiang Zhengte has been deeply involved in the outdoor leisure furniture and products industry for nearly 30 years, with a focus on three core business lines: shading products, outdoor furniture, and camping [14] - The company has established partnerships with major retailers, including Walmart and Costco, enhancing its market presence [14][46] - The management team is stable and experienced, with a concentrated ownership structure that supports long-term strategic goals [21][14] Competitive Advantages - The company emphasizes innovation and iteration in product design, combining international design with local research and development [32][40] - Strong channel partnerships with high-profile clients create a competitive barrier, ensuring stable and large order volumes [46][48] - The supply chain is vertically integrated, which enhances cost efficiency and delivery capabilities, further strengthening the company's market position [53][56]

❖ PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 有所回升 12 月制造业 PMI 为 50.1%，前值为 49.2%。具体分项来看：1）PMI 生产指 数为 51.7%，前值为 50.0%，回升 1.7 个百分点。2）PMI 新订单指数为 50.8%， 前值为 49.2%。PMI 新出口订单指数为 49.0%，前值为 47.6%。3） PMI 从 业人员指数为 48.2%，前值为 48.4%。4）供货商配送时间指数为 50.2%，前 值为 50.1%。5）PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.8%，前值为 47.3%。 其他值得关注的分项：1）外贸：出口订单指明显回升。新出口订单指数为 49.0%，前值为 47.6%。进口订单指数为 47.0%，前值为 47.0%。2）价格：12 月，PMI 出厂价格指数为 48.9%，前值为 48.2%，继续低于荣枯线。12 月， PMI 主要原材料购进价格指数为 53.1%，前值为 53.6%，7 月以来持续高于荣 枯线。3）预期：制造业预期有所回升。12 月，制造业生产经营活动预期指数 为 55.5%，前值为 53.1%。12 月，建筑业业务活动预期指数为 57.4%，前值为 57.9%。 ...

港股公司 证 券 研 究 报 告 康耐特光学（02276.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 智能眼镜首次纳入国补，看好消费级产品渗 透率加速提升 事项： ❖ 25 年 12 月 30 日，国家发改委、财政部发布 2026 年国补政策，首次将智能眼 镜纳入补贴范围，补贴标准为 15%，单件补贴上限 500 元（单件产品售价不超 过 6000 元）。根据测算，智能眼镜价格超过 3300 元基本可以全额享受国补。 评论： 其他轻工Ⅲ 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | 目标价：63.63 | 港元 | | --- | --- | | 当前价：51.80 | 港元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘一怡 邮箱：liuyiyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070003 联系人：周星宇 邮箱：zhouxingyu1@hcyjs.com ❖ 风险提示：智能眼镜发展不及预期、国内渠道拓展不及预期、行业竞争加剧。 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 宽松过峰，股债重估 ❖ 核心观点 1、由于总量政策"摆脱超常规"叠加央行"优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量" 的表述，我们预计短期政府债增速和贷款增速或边际回落，这一过程或带来一 季度 M2 同比的持续下行。 2、考虑到近期市场波动率的小幅提升，居民存款加速搬家的概率不高的前提 下，M2 同比的回落会引致宏观流动性最宽松的时刻正在过去，历史经验来看， 这会对资产估值造成冲击。 3、但是本轮宏观流动性最宽松时段过去与历史相比存在三点不同： ①从基本面来看，当下基本面景气最确定的是中游，由于中游需求更依赖海外， 其景气相对独立，因此国内流动性的松紧对其需求影响不大，反而有助于其供 给侧的加速收缩。在这个视角下，国内流动性收缩对中游利润预期冲击不大。 ②从资产配置来看，绝对视角下，国际经验展示当下十债收益率仍低于国际合 理空间，相对视角下，我们的股债比价指标（股债夏普比率差值）仍显示当下 股票更具配置优势。因此如果流动性收缩冲击偏"贵"的资产的话，只要经济 循环仍在边际改善，那么债券反而是当下"偏贵"的资产。 ③如果经济遭遇突发事件打破循环，国内政策有望随时加码改善流动性 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.1, representing a potential upside of 64% from the current price of HKD 10.98 [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the "takeaway war" has ignited a new journey in instant retail, termed "everything to home," highlighting the significant growth potential in the instant retail sector [4][21]. - The company is identified as the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, benefiting from the synergy of its independent third-party status and the broader ecosystem of SF Express [8][9]. - Financial performance shows a continuous improvement in profitability, with gross margins increasing from -23.3% in 2018 to 6.8% in 2024, and adjusted net profit margins improving from -36.4% to 0.93% over the same period [8][9]. Summary by Sections Instant Retail Market - Instant retail is characterized by online ordering and offline fulfillment, aiming to meet local immediate demands, with a projected market size of RMB 781 billion in 2024, growing at 20.15% year-on-year [4][38]. - The competition among major players like Meituan, Taobao, and JD has intensified, with significant subsidies driving daily order volumes to record highs [13][14][15]. - The report outlines three main service models in instant retail: front warehouses, comprehensive instant retail platforms, and store-warehouse integrated self-operated models [23][26][30]. Company Overview - The company is positioned as the leading third-party instant delivery service provider, leveraging the SF Express brand reputation and service capabilities to create a synergistic effect [8][9]. - The internal and external growth mechanisms, termed "dual flywheel," are driving significant revenue growth, with a forecasted increase in net profit from RMB 132 million in 2024 to RMB 707 million by 2027 [9][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 15.746 billion in 2024 to RMB 32.731 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [5]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach RMB 8.1 billion by 2027, with a corresponding adjusted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 25 in 2025 to 11 in 2027 [9][5].

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 52 周） 推荐（维持） 北京出台楼市新政，新房周成交环比上涨 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 12 月 31 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -5.3% | 6.6% | -1.5% | | 相对表现 | -8.1% | -11.5% | -17.8% | -13% -2% 9% 21% 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/08 25/10 25/12 2024-12-31~2025-12-30 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《房地产行业重大事项点评：北京楼市再宽松》 2025-12-26 《房地产行业周报（2025 年第 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - On December 30, the convertible bond industry showed mixed performance in terms of gains and losses, with valuations rising on a month - on - month basis [1]. - The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant in the market [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose [2]. - The convertible bond valuations increased [2]. - In the A - share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined, while in the convertible bond market, 14 industries rose [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.14% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index remained unchanged, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.06%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.04% [1]. - **Market Style**: Mid - cap growth was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth rose 0.57%, large - cap value fell 0.13%, mid - cap growth rose 0.81%, mid - cap value rose 0.66%, small - cap growth rose 0.66%, and small - cap value rose 0.34% [1]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 75.057 billion yuan, a 2.96% month - on - month decrease; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A was 2.161532 trillion yuan, a 0.18% month - on - month increase; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23.828 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.02 bp to 1.86% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 134.53 yuan, a 0.09% month - on - month increase. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 202.44 yuan, a 1.47% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 118.85 yuan, a 0.18% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.71 yuan, a 0.01% increase [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 59.95%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase. The largest change in proportion occurred in the 120 - 130 (including 130) range, with a proportion of 28.01%, a 1.39 - percentage - point decrease. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 132.60 yuan, a 0.07% month - on - month decrease [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 33.54%, a 0.45 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the overall weighted par value was 101.88 yuan, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease [2]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 18.25%, a 1.38 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 86.78%, a 2.11 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 25.17%, a 0.42 - percentage - point increase [2]. Industry Performance - **Underlying Stock Market**: Among the A - share industries, the top three decliners were Commerce and Retail (-1.56%), Real Estate (-1.22%), and Utilities (-1.14%); the top three gainers were Petroleum and Petrochemical (+2.63%), Automobile (+1.35%), and Non - Ferrous Metals (+1.31%) [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Among the convertible bond industries, the top three gainers were Automobile (+2.08%), Petroleum and Petrochemical (+1.25%), and Textile and Apparel (+0.77%); the top three decliners were Environmental Protection (-2.57%), National Defense and Military Industry (-1.23%), and Building Materials (-1.16%) [3]. - **By Category**: - **Closing Price**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.38%, manufacturing increased by 0.54%, technology decreased by 0.24%, large - consumption increased by 0.10%, and large - finance decreased by 0.05% [3]. - **Conversion Premium Rate**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.21 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 0.57 percentage points, technology increased by 0.028 percentage points, large - consumption increased by 0.63 percentage points, and large - finance increased by 0.79 percentage points [3]. - **Conversion Value**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.74%, manufacturing increased by 0.17%, technology decreased by 0.36%, large - consumption decreased by 0.43%, and large - finance decreased by 0.20% [3]. - **Pure Bond Premium Rate**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.55 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 0.81 percentage points, technology decreased by 0.16 percentage points, large - consumption increased by 0.12 percentage points, and large - finance decreased by 0.065 percentage points [4]. Industry Rotation - Industries such as Petroleum and Petrochemical, Automobile, and Non - Ferrous Metals led the gains. For example, Petroleum and Petrochemical had a daily increase of 2.63% in the underlying stock market and 1.25% in the convertible bond market; Automobile had a 1.35% increase in the underlying stock market and 2.08% in the convertible bond market [54].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 格力电器（000651）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 主营承压下盈利能力改善，制造体系持续夯实 事项： ❖ 2025 年 11 月，工信部公示《2025 年度领航级智能工厂项目培育名单》，格力 电器旗下"全价值链格力协同屋空调智能工厂"项目入选（全国首批仅 15 家）， 公司智能制造能力与示范效应获得国家级层面认可。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：新品开拓不及预期、原材料价格上涨。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 190,038 | 179,515 | 187,740 | 196,561 | | 同比增速(%) | -7.3% | -5.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 32,185 | 30,058 | 32,279 | 34,156 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.9% | -6.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 5.75 | 5. ...