宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 事 项 2025 年 12 月，社融存量同比 8.3%（前值 8.5%），M2 同比 8.5%（前值 8 %）， 新口径 M1 同比 3.8%（前值 4.9%）。 ❖ 核心观点。 1、对于当下的流动性判断： 【宏观快评】 12 月 M2 同比抬升的原因及影响 ——12月金融数据点评 ①从整体的流动性来看，新增居民存款/新增 M2 这一比值仍维持在低位，这 对应当下宏观整体的流动性仍相对充裕，金融资产估值仍有支撑； ②从实体经济的流动性来看，12 月与企业预期更相关的旧口径 M1 同比回落 1.8%，领先企业利润增速的企业居民存款剪刀差回落 0.9%，两者均为 2024 年 9 月以来的最大跌幅。 ③从金融市场的流动性来看，与企业存款的弱势不同，12 月非银存款同比大 幅多增，这也与 12 月以来权益市场成交金额的火热相匹配。企业存款弱，非 银存款强，短期资金存在"脱实向虚"的可能。 2、对于未来的流动性判断： 3、但我们提示本轮宽松过峰有三点不同： ①由于经济景气当下主要集中在中游，而中游的需求更依赖海外，因此流动性 收缩对中游利润冲击并不明显； ②结合国际经验来看，只要没开 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) with an updated target price of HKD 67.75, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HKD 54.65 [4][8]. Core Insights - Meta is planning to double the production capacity of its AI glasses, Ray-Ban, by the end of this year, indicating strong confidence in the smart eyewear market [2]. - The upcoming launch of the 千问 APP by Alibaba is expected to showcase how AI can enhance operational efficiency [2]. - 康耐特光学 is positioned as a leading lens manufacturer and is actively developing its smart eyewear segment, which is anticipated to become a significant growth driver [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 康耐特光学 are as follows: - 2024A: HKD 2,061 million - 2025E: HKD 2,347 million - 2026E: HKD 2,835 million - 2027E: HKD 3,380 million - The revenue growth rates are projected at 17.1% for 2024, 13.9% for 2025, 20.8% for 2026, and 19.2% for 2027 [4][9]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2024A: HKD 428 million - 2025E: HKD 564 million - 2026E: HKD 696 million - 2027E: HKD 869 million - Corresponding net profit growth rates are 31.0% for 2024, 31.7% for 2025, 23.3% for 2026, and 25.0% for 2027 [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from HKD 0.89 in 2024 to HKD 1.81 in 2027 [4][9]. Market Position and Strategy - 康耐特光学 is actively collaborating with leading 3C companies to expand its smart eyewear offerings, which is expected to enhance its market presence and profitability [8]. - The report highlights the integration of AI capabilities in products like the 夸克 AI glasses, which are expected to drive sales through enhanced user experiences [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [3] Core Insights - The global AI computing revolution is accelerating, with a significant increase in demand for intelligent computing power, projected to exceed 16 ZFlops by 2030, with intelligent computing accounting for over 90% of this demand [6][14] - NVIDIA leads the market with a nearly 90% share in AI server GPUs, while companies like Broadcom and AMD are also making significant strides in the ASIC chip market [6][19] - The competition in the AI computing ecosystem is intensifying, with a shift from general-purpose to specialized chips, driving a trend towards customized solutions [8][12] Summary by Sections Global AI Computing Revolution - The demand for intelligent computing is rapidly growing, with the global computing power expected to reach 16 ZFlops by 2030, where intelligent computing will dominate [14] - NVIDIA's GPU market share is approximately 90%, with significant growth in AI chip sales projected for the coming years [19] NVIDIA's Data Center Business - NVIDIA has built a comprehensive computing infrastructure, investing over 582 billion in R&D, leading to innovations across chips, systems, and software [49] - The introduction of the Blackwell architecture has significantly enhanced performance, supporting models with up to 100 trillion parameters [53] Broadcom's Rise - Broadcom focuses on ASIC chips, holding a 55%-60% market share in the ASIC market, establishing long-term partnerships with major cloud service providers [43] - The company's AI business revenue reached 20 billion, growing by 65% year-on-year [6] Intensifying Competition in the AI Ecosystem - The AI market is shifting towards specialized chips, with major cloud providers like Google and Amazon developing their own chips to reduce dependency on external suppliers [8][12] - AMD is enhancing its ecosystem, with plans to release new chip series that promise significant performance improvements [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on A-share companies such as Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Inspur, as well as U.S. companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD, as potential investment opportunities in the evolving AI computing landscape [6][8]

证 券 研 究 报 告 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 804 | 852 | 1,059 | 1,305 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.7% | 6.1% | 24.3% | 23.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 106 | 119 | 160 | 198 | | 同比增速(%) | -21.0% | 12.2% | 33.7% | 24.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.35 | 1.51 | 2.02 | 2.51 | | 市盈率(倍) | 52 | 46 | 35 | 28 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 15 日收盘价 公司研究 医疗服务 2026 年 01 月 16 日 当前价：69.79 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郑辰 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S03 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market showed a slight increase with reduced trading volume, and the valuation increased compared to the previous day [1]. - The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant in the market [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened, with a significant decrease in trading volume [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20% day - on - day, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.56%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.20% [1][7]. - Different style indices had varying performance, with mid - cap growth rising 0.98% and being relatively dominant [1][8]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 90.616 billion yuan, a 17.52% decrease from the previous day, and the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2938.494 billion yuan, a 26.30% decrease [1][9]. - The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 50.92 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.50bp to 1.85% [1][13]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.05% to 139.95 yuan, and the proportion of high - price bonds (above 130 yuan) rose by 0.19pct to 71.58% [2]. - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value increased by 0.47pct to 36.32%, and the overall weighted par value increased by 0.08% to 104.54 yuan [2]. Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three declining industries were National Defense and Military Industry (- 2.80%), Media (- 2.70%), and Computer (- 2.40%); the top three rising industries were Electronics (+ 1.67%), Basic Chemicals (+ 1.40%), and Non - ferrous Metals (+ 1.37%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three declining industries were Building Materials (- 3.47%), National Defense and Military Industry (- 2.97%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (- 2.85%); the top three rising industries were Electronics (+ 2.55%), Commerce and Retail (+ 2.35%), and Automobile (+ 1.87%) [3].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 再论出口强在中游：2026 机电出口或延续景气 ——12 月进出口数据点评 事 项 12 月我国以美元计算出口同比 6.6%，预期 3%，前值 5.9%；12 月以美元计价 进口同比 5.7%，预期 0.9%，前值 1.9%。 主要观点 核心观点： 1、12 月，中国出口同比不仅没因基数问题回落，反而较上月回升 0.7 个点。 与 PMI 新出口订单的大幅回升对应，可能既有外需景气也有年末节前一定的 生产前置因素。 拆分商品来看，边际改善动力主要源自四类机电产品：1）手机：或主要源于 去年价格低基数；2）自动数据处理设备及其零部件，设备篇弱，主要是零附 件强，或受益于 AI 趋势下的科技进口需求景气；3）车：主要是新能源车偏 强，或受益于竞争优势和市场需求扩张；4）集成电路：与电脑零附件类似， 或主要受益于科技进口需求高增。 2、展望 2026：我们认为中游偏强或有望延续。一是从产品结构看，机电产品 四链条或均有景气逻辑支撑：1）信息通讯技术（ICT）产品：或受益于科技进 口需求景气；2）船舶：出口韧性来自手持订单继续高增长；3）汽车，出口韧 性或受益于竞争力提 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中信银行（601998）2025 年业绩快报点评 推荐（维持） 营收增速拐点向上，资产质量稳中向好 目标价：10.58 元/9.70 港元 事项： 1 月 14 日晚，中信银行披露 25 年业绩快报，预计 2025 全年实现营业收入 2124.75 亿元，同比降幅收窄至-0.5%（1-3Q25 为-3.5%）；营业利润 836.74 亿 元，同比增长 3.4%（1-3Q25 为 4.7%）；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 706.18 亿元，同比增长 3.0%（1-3Q25 为 3.0%）。不良率环比略降 1bp 至 1.15%，拨 备覆盖率环比下降 0.6pct 至 203.6%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 213,646 | 212,396 | 220,228 | 232,734 | | 同比增速(%) | 3.76% | -0.59% | 3.69% | 5.68% | | 归母净利 ...

Group 1: Inflation Trends in 2025 - In 2025, the US CPI showed a "倒 N" shape trend with year-on-year rates of 2.7%, 2.4%, 2.9%, and 2.7% across the four quarters[1] - Core CPI year-on-year rates were 3.1%, 2.8%, 3.1%, and 2.6% for the same period[1] - The increase in CPI during Q2 and Q3 was primarily driven by core goods and energy, influenced by tariffs and base effects[1] Group 2: Factors Affecting Inflation in 2026 - The main risk for inflation in 2026 is additional fiscal stimulus rather than a precursor to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[2] - Excluding tariff impacts (approximately 0.5%), CPI year-on-year is slightly above 2%[2] - The probability of food and energy inflation rebounding is low, with measures taken to lower food prices and oil prices remaining stable due to oversupply[2] Group 3: Employment and Economic Feedback - The inflation trend is largely dependent on the recovery of the job market, particularly in super core services and housing inflation[2] - If non-farm employment exceeds 100,000 per month, it may indicate an overheating job market, which could lead to inflationary pressures[2] Group 4: Political Influences on Fiscal Policy - The greatest inflationary risk stems from potential fiscal stimulus driven by midterm election pressures, particularly concerning the cost of living crisis[3] - Trump may propose additional fiscal measures, such as direct payments funded by tariff revenues, to gain voter support if current non-spending measures fail[3] - The timeline for potential fiscal stimulus is likely around mid-year, coinciding with the primary elections from March to September[3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price of 11.18 CNY [2][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's core competitive advantages built on the "three pillars" of wealth management, investment banking, and investment management, which are expected to drive revenue growth [8][9]. - The company has shown significant recovery in revenue and profitability, achieving record highs in recent quarters, driven by active brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [35][33]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,920 million CNY in 2024 to 5,870 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% in 2024 and 33% in 2025 [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 728 million CNY in 2024 to 1,512 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 71% in 2024 and 78% in 2025 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.28 CNY in 2024 to 0.58 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 33.4 in 2024 to 16.2 in 2027 [3]. Company Overview - The company, Huaxi Securities, is a comprehensive securities firm rooted in Southwest China, focusing on wealth management, investment banking, and investment management as its main business pillars [15][18]. - It has a strong shareholder structure, with significant stakes held by local state-owned enterprises, ensuring stable control [18][19]. Business Analysis - The brokerage and proprietary trading segments are the main drivers of revenue, with brokerage income accounting for 47.2% of total revenue in 2025, significantly above the industry average [27][51]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in client funds, reaching a historical high of 330.9 million CNY, with a market share of 1.7% [58][60]. - The investment banking segment has faced challenges due to regulatory issues but is expected to recover as the company focuses on debt financing and restructuring its operations [62][64]. Market Position - The company has gradually regained market share, with total revenue reaching 34.9 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.5% [33][35]. - The asset scale has also grown, with total assets and net assets increasing by 17.3% and 6.2% year-on-year, respectively, providing a solid foundation for future business expansion [33][34].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 量化看市场系列之三："看线宝"小程序上线 ❖ 摘要 自 2023 年 1 月开启 K 线量化研究以来，我们在这场深度的探索中已走过近一 千个昼夜。我们始终坚信：唯有在一个角度上的极致深耕，方能孕育出真正触 及市场本质的投资策略。 在过去的三年里，我们的研究路径经历了四个核心阶段的跨越： 但由于部分客户 IP 限制与浏览器问题，形态云在部分客户的电脑上无法正常 显示，我们将形态云的核心服务搬运到微信小程序上，采用 WXML/WXSS、 小程序框架，调用原生组件，启动速度快，操作流畅，体验接近原生系统，并 极易与社交场景结合（如分享给好友/群），也完美连接线上线下（扫码即用）。 我们构建了"看线宝"小程序。 "看线宝"小程序内置了个股、可转债、期货、ETF 形态量化分析、ETF 智能 择时与 ETF 轮动分析等等。深度集成 ECharts (WeChat 适配版)，针对 K 线形 态标注、多轴联动（股价与净值线）进行了深度定制。并采用微信最新官方隐 私授权指引，结合 OAuth 2.0 授权流程进行手机号加密解析。 ❖ 风险提示： 数据基于历史，不代表未来。 金融工程 点评报 ...