金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20251222-20251226） 短期择时看多指数增加，后市或震荡偏多 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨 1.88%，创业板指单周上涨 3.9%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型所有宽基指数中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型看多。特征成交量 模型看空。智能算法沪深 300 模型中性，智能算法中证 500 模型中性。 中期：涨跌停模型看多。上下行收益差模型所有宽基指数看多。月历效应模型 中性。 长期：长期动量模型看多。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看多。A 股综合国证 2000 模型中性。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。恒生指数上下行收益差模型中性。 本周行业指数普遍上涨，涨幅前五的行业为：有色金属、国防军工、基础化工、 建材、电子，跌幅前五的行业为：商贸零售、银行、煤炭、食品饮料、医药。 从资金流向角度来说，基础化工、电力设备及新能源、银行、纺织服装主力资 金净流入居前，电子、计算机、医药、通信、传媒主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 96.46%，相较于上周减少了 118 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 87.99%，相较于上 ...

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Indicator" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the total heat indicators of individual stocks within broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[7] - The total heat indicator for individual stocks is defined as the sum of browsing, self-selection, and click counts, normalized by the market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][7] - The report constructs a rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the "others" group has the highest change rate[13][16] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 36.71% in 2025[16] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on concept heat: a "TOP" portfolio consisting of the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat in the hottest concepts, and a "BOTTOM" portfolio consisting of the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat in the hottest concepts[32][33] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 42.4% in 2025[34] - The heat change rate (MA2) for broad-based indices this week shows that the CSI 500 index has the highest increase of 7.1%, while the CSI 300 index has the largest decrease of 5.08%[2][16] - The heat change rate (MA2) for Shenwan primary industries this week shows that the top five industries with the highest positive change rates are retail, building materials, automotive, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemicals, while the top five industries with the highest negative change rates are banking, coal, media, computer, and electronics[2][27] - The heat change rate (MA2) for Shenwan secondary industries this week shows that the top five industries with the highest positive change rates are environmental equipment II, special steel II, glass fiber, beverage and dairy, and aerospace equipment II[2][27] - The top five concepts with the highest heat change rates this week are sugar substitute, automotive dismantling, civil explosives, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and PVDF concept[2][28]

Group 1: Overall Industrial Profit Trends - In November, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises decreased to -13.1%, down from -5.5% in the previous month[2] - As of November, inventory increased by 4.6% year-on-year, compared to 3.7% in the previous month[2] - State-owned industrial enterprises saw a profit growth rate of -17.0%, while private enterprises had -12.6%, and foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan enterprises reported -7.3%[2] Group 2: Midstream Sector Performance - The midstream sector showed a profit growth rate of 6.77% in November, the only sector with positive growth, compared to -3.85% previously[5] - Midstream revenue growth was 4.66% in November, outperforming other sectors[5] - The midstream PPI turned positive for the first time since June 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.04%[19] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The electronic equipment manufacturing industry saw a profit increase of 57.4%, driven by rapid development in aerospace and intelligent products[5] - The mining sector's profit growth was -21.16%, while manufacturing and electric heat, gas, and water sectors reported -13.54% and -1.59%, respectively[31] - The midstream sector's profit margin in November was 5.7%, higher than the previous year's 5.5%[19]

证 券 研 究 报 告 电力及公用事业行业深度研究报告 "超导-磁体"：可控核聚变价值量最高环节 推荐（维持） ——可控核聚变系列研究（五） 行业研究 电力及公用事业 2025 年 12 月 27 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 228 ...

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年12月27日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第156期 SMO格局稳固，行业有望开启成长新周期 本周专题联系人：王宏雨 华创医药团队： | 首席分析师 郑辰 | | | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联席首席分析师 | 刘浩 | | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长 | | 李婵娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长 | 高初蕾 | | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 王宏雨 | | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 朱珂琛 | | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukec ...

行业研究 房地产 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | 华创证券研究所 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：单戈 | 证券分析师：许常捷 | 证券分析师：杨航 | | 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360522110001 | 执业编号：S0360525030002 | 执业编号：S0360525090001 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 事项： 房地产行业重大事项点评 推荐（维持） 北京楼市再宽松 2025 年 12 月 24 日，北京市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、 北京住房公积金管理中心等 4 部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策 的通知》。 评论： 本次北京房地产相关政策优化内容主要包括： 限购方面：1）非京籍居民家庭购买五环内商品住房的，缴纳社保或个税的年限，调整为 购房之日前连续缴纳满 2 年及以上；购买五环外商品住房的，缴纳社保或个税的年限， 调整为购房之日前连续缴纳满 1 年及以上。2）二孩及以上的多 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 美国经济的冷与热：总量向上，民生向下 ——美国三季度 GDP 点评 事 项 三季度美国 GDP 好于预期，GDP 环比折年率+4.3%，前值+3.8%，预期+3%， 显著强于季节性；GDP 同比+2.3%，前值+2.1%，预期+2%。 主要观点 核心结论：Q3 经济超预期的主要来源为：①库存投资负向拖累大幅改善（库 存投资对 GDP 环比增速的拉动率为-0.2%，较前值提升 3.2 个百分点），主要 为抢进口修复后回归常态；②个人消费支出继续强劲增长（私人消费对 GDP 环比增速的拉动率为 2.4%，较前值提升 0.7 个百分点），但结构仍是服务消费 强、耐用品消费弱。 Q3 数据进一步佐证了美国经济冷热不均的分化，且短期难以改善这一分化。 总量向上：AI 投资继续拉动经济+富人财富效应下支撑消费偏强。但民生向下： 传统制造业与商品消费弱，导致"蓝领"就业难；普通人享受不到 AI 的财富 增值，反而财务状况不断恶化，67%的人口处于"月光族"。 经济冷热不均的分化能暂时避免经济衰退的到来，但无法解决政治风险。考虑 到 2026 年为中期选举年，不排除特朗普在经济矛盾无法解 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [18]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing rapid development, with significant government support and a projected market size exceeding 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025. This growth is driven by advancements in satellite internet, computing satellites, and the establishment of space data centers [5][6]. - The establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Administration marks a new era for the industry, providing dedicated regulatory oversight and fostering high-quality development [5]. - The report highlights the acceleration of satellite launches, with notable achievements in satellite internet and computing satellite constellations, positioning China as a leader in global space technology [5][6]. Industry Overview - The computer industry comprises 338 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 57.78 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 52.46 billion yuan [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months has increased by 18.5%, while its relative performance against the benchmark index has improved by 2.2% [3]. Key Companies and Financial Projections - Notable companies in the sector include China Satellite, Aerospace Electronics, and Unisoc, with varying market capitalizations and earnings projections for 2024 and 2025. For instance, China Satellite has a market cap of 108.74 billion yuan with an estimated EPS of 0.1 for 2024 [6][7]. - The report provides detailed earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several key players, indicating a diverse range of valuations and growth expectations across the industry [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 35.6 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company is set to accelerate its store openings, which will enhance its growth potential. The new store model has been validated, and the company aims to achieve its 2025 store opening targets. The report outlines a three-phase growth strategy: "from 0 to 1," "from 1 to 10," and "from 10 to 100," indicating a clear operational turning point and the beginning of a new growth cycle [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,671 million yuan in 2024 to 2,540 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.6% in 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 277 million yuan in 2024 to 408 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 25.7% in 2027 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.15 yuan in 2024 to 1.70 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 25 times in 2024 to 17 times in 2027 [2][7]. Store Expansion Strategy - The company has successfully opened new stores in various regions, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Hubei, validating the replicability of its new store model. The upcoming franchisee conferences and the peak opening season after the Spring Festival are expected to catalyze further growth [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the company will reach a mid-term target of 1,500 to 2,000 new stores, with potential for even greater expansion in the long term [6][7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the steamed bun industry, with a focus on continuous innovation and operational efficiency. The report emphasizes the attractiveness of the business model to franchisees, which is expected to drive further expansion and enhance brand strength [6][7].

债券研究 【债券深度报告】 经营分化扩大，估值回归理性 ——公募 REITs 跟踪观察报告 （2）扩募方面：下半年共 2 只公募 REITs 扩募经证监会及上交所注册生效， 分别为东久新经济 REIT、京能光伏 REIT。 （3）二级市场：2025 年下半年公募 REITs 二级市场价格有所承压。截至 2025 年 12 月 24 日，中证 REITs 全收益指数累计涨跌幅为-11.48%，较年中出现反 转，中证 REITs 全收益指数 2025 年全年回报率已降为-1.51%，年内涨幅全部 回吐。主要原因系资金流向权益资产压制 REITs 整体表现、经营基本面未见明 显修复、前期 REITs 供不应求导致市场过热，推高二级价格导致估值偏离，现 或逐步向资产估值回归。市场活跃度方面，三季度、四季度 REITs 成交额总量 分别为 389.59、267.31 亿元，月均换手率分别为 16.45%、9.97%，成交额与流 动性整体下降。年底三只 REITs 又将迎来大规模解禁，流通比例从 20%左右 提升到 60%以上，或将带来流动性的提升，但在市场整体下跌趋势中也可能伴 随短期价格的考验。 ❖ 风险提示：数据统 ...