Group 1 - The spring market rally has entered its second half, characterized by reduced trading volume and rising prices, as regulatory signals promote a return to rationality in the market [4][6][10] - The average maximum increase of the Shanghai Composite Index during the past 16 spring rallies was 15.8%, while the current rally has seen a maximum increase of 9.8%, indicating potential for further price increases [10][12] - Economic data is showing positive trends, with expectations for a continued rally supported by improving PPI figures and favorable policies from the government [10][20] Group 2 - The focus of the market is shifting from risk appetite to earnings growth, with a notable increase in the proportion of companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, reaching 37.8% as of January 17 [13][19] - The reduction in competitive pressure (internal competition) is leading to a significant increase in the proportion of companies with improved earnings, particularly in industries such as steel, construction materials, and media [20][22] - The overall improvement in earnings among non-financial companies in the A-share market is evident, with a 5.8% increase in the proportion of companies reporting positive net profit growth [20][22] Group 3 - Investment recommendations focus on sectors with strong earnings growth expectations, including non-bank financials, cyclical industries, and technology innovation [23][24] - Non-bank financials have shown the highest proportion of earnings revisions, with a 400% increase in companies adjusting their profit forecasts positively [23][24] - Cyclical sectors such as materials and energy are expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus and demand-side support, with significant upward revisions in profit forecasts [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the automotive industry, expecting a rebound in vehicle sales in Q1 and focusing on investments in intelligent driving, robotics, and liquid cooling technologies [3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing significant dynamics, including sales, pricing, exports, and robotics developments [2]. - The report highlights that January's early sales data shows a substantial year-on-year decline, primarily due to subsidy reductions and rising vehicle prices, leading to consumer hesitation [5]. - The report anticipates that the pressure on vehicle prices will be managed through strict enforcement of anti-competitive practices, aiming to stabilize prices and profit margins [5]. - The export market is expected to grow rapidly, supported by agreements that lower trade barriers for electric vehicles, enhancing profitability for manufacturers and dealers [5]. - The robotics sector is gaining traction, with the Optimus V3 generating market excitement and expectations for product launches [5]. Data Tracking - In early January, the average discount rate remained stable, with a 9.6% increase year-on-year, and the average discount amount reached 22,259 yuan, up by 2,192 yuan year-on-year [4]. - December's wholesale vehicle sales were reported at 2.85 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.7% and a month-on-month decline of 6.3% [4]. - Notable sales performance in December included significant year-on-year growth for new energy vehicle manufacturers like NIO and Li Auto, while traditional automakers like SAIC and Changan showed mixed results [6]. Industry News - The report discusses various industry developments, including the price commitments for electric vehicles between China and Europe, which aim to facilitate trade [27]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on enhancing the competitiveness of the new energy vehicle sector and regulating market practices to prevent price wars [27]. - Recent data indicates a significant drop in retail sales of passenger vehicles in early January, with a 32% year-on-year decline [27]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 0.71%, ranking 8th out of 29 sectors, while the overall market indices showed mixed results [10].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses trading volume data to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes the trading volume of various broad-based indices to determine market sentiment. If the trading volume increases significantly, it indicates a bullish trend - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing short-term market movements based on trading volume[1][14] 2. Model Name: Feature Longhu Board Institution Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses institutional trading data from the Longhu Board to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model tracks the trading activities of institutions listed on the Longhu Board. A higher level of institutional buying indicates a bullish trend - **Evaluation**: The model is useful for understanding the impact of institutional trading on market trends[1][14] 3. Model Name: Feature Volume Model - **Construction Idea**: Similar to the Volume Model, this model uses specific volume features to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes specific volume features such as spikes or drops in trading volume to determine market sentiment - **Evaluation**: The model provides additional insights by focusing on specific volume features rather than overall volume[1][14] 4. Model Name: Intelligent Algorithm Model (CSI 300 and CSI 500) - **Construction Idea**: The model uses machine learning algorithms to predict market trends for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices - **Construction Process**: The model employs various machine learning techniques to analyze historical data and predict future trends for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing complex patterns and trends in the market using advanced algorithms[1][14] 5. Model Name: Limit Up and Down Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses the frequency of limit up and down events to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model tracks the number of stocks hitting their daily limit up or down to gauge market sentiment. A higher number of limit up events indicates a bullish trend - **Evaluation**: The model is useful for capturing extreme market movements and sentiment[1][15] 6. Model Name: Up and Down Return Difference Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses the difference between upward and downward returns to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model calculates the difference between the returns of stocks moving up and those moving down. A positive difference indicates a bullish trend - **Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced view of market sentiment by considering both upward and downward movements[1][15] 7. Model Name: Calendar Effect Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses calendar-based patterns to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes historical data to identify recurring patterns based on the calendar, such as monthly or quarterly trends - **Evaluation**: The model is useful for capturing seasonal trends and patterns in the market[1][15] 8. Model Name: Long-term Momentum Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses long-term momentum to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model tracks the long-term momentum of stocks to determine market sentiment. A positive momentum indicates a bullish trend - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing long-term trends and movements in the market[1][16] 9. Model Name: Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Construction Idea**: The model combines multiple indicators and models to provide a comprehensive market prediction - **Construction Process**: The model integrates various short-term, medium-term, and long-term models to generate a comprehensive market outlook - **Evaluation**: The model provides a holistic view of the market by combining multiple indicators and models[1][17] 10. Model Name: Comprehensive National Certificate 2000 Model - **Construction Idea**: Similar to the Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model, this model focuses on the National Certificate 2000 index - **Construction Process**: The model integrates various indicators and models specifically for the National Certificate 2000 index - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in providing a comprehensive outlook for the National Certificate 2000 index[1][17] Model Backtesting Results - **Volume Model**: All broad-based indices are bullish[1][14] - **Feature Longhu Board Institution Model**: Bullish[1][14] - **Feature Volume Model**: Bullish[1][14] - **Intelligent Algorithm Model (CSI 300)**: Bullish[1][14] - **Intelligent Algorithm Model (CSI 500)**: Bullish[1][14] - **Limit Up and Down Model**: Bullish[1][15] - **Up and Down Return Difference Model**: All broad-based indices are bullish[1][15] - **Calendar Effect Model**: Neutral[1][15] - **Long-term Momentum Model**: Neutral[1][16] - **Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model**: Bullish[1][17] - **Comprehensive National Certificate 2000 Model**: Bullish[1][17]

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes a focus on high convexity coupon products across different maturities, suggesting a strategic allocation from short to long durations [11][19] - The credit bond market has seen a general decline in yields, with a divergence in credit spreads, indicating a mixed performance among different bond types [11][6] - The current market conditions present an important window for coupon allocation, particularly in the 3.5-4y, 5.5-6y, and 7.5-8y segments [19][32] Group 2: Market Overview - The yield for 1-year short-term bonds is currently in the range of 1.70%-1.80%, which is approximately 7-9 basis points higher than similar maturity certificates of deposit, indicating a favorable comparison [25][30] - For 2-3 year bonds, the yields are between 1.80%-2.15%, with spreads expected to remain low, making them attractive for investment [26][30] - The 4-5 year bonds show high convexity, with a focus on the value of public bonds, as their spreads have widened slightly, improving their relative value [29][32] Group 3: Policy and Events - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for government investment funds, marking a systematic approach to fund allocation and investment focus [4] - Regulatory bodies are facilitating loan extensions for real estate companies, which is expected to improve their cash flow and market expectations [4] - Vanke has proposed multiple debt restructuring plans, indicating proactive measures to reach consensus with creditors [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the banking sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in social financing growth, indicating that credit remains strong for enterprises but weak for households [1]. - In December 2025, the social financing growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.3%, continuing the trend observed in the second half of 2025 [4]. - The report emphasizes that government bonds are the main support for social financing, contributing significantly to the overall increase in financing [4]. - The investment logic for 2026 is expected to shift from purely defensive to a combination of dividends and growth, with a focus on banks with high dividends and low valuations [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The banking sector consists of 42 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1.15 trillion yuan and a circulating market value of about 790 billion yuan [1]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the banking sector over the past month is 5.0%, with a relative performance of 2.8% compared to the broader market [2]. Financing and Credit Data - In December 2025, new social financing amounted to 2.21 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in government bonds [4]. - The report notes that new RMB loans in December were 910 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan, with household loans showing a negative growth trend [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: state-owned banks and large commercial banks, quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks with strong performance, and city commercial banks benefiting from regional policies [5]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, Ping An Bank, and several city commercial banks [5].

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Indicator" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the heat indicators of individual stocks within broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[10][11] - The "Total Heat Indicator" is defined as the sum of the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of a stock, normalized by its market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][10] - The report constructs a simple rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the "Others" group has the highest change rate[16][18] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 2.1% in 2026[19] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on the heat change rate of concepts, selecting the top 10 and bottom 10 stocks by total heat within the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rate each week, and holding them equally[35] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio of low-heat stocks within high-heat concepts has historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will exceed the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [45]. Core Insights - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting policies, which are expected to enhance the strategic position of service consumption as a key driver of domestic demand and economic growth [4][5]. - The report highlights the government's support for new business models and quality service supply, particularly in sectors like culture, tourism, and sports, which are seen as areas with significant growth potential [4]. - The anticipated policies are expected to release consumer spending potential in leisure and tourism, providing substantial benefits to the industry [4]. - The consumer services sector showed a weekly increase of 1.53%, outperforming the overall market indices, with notable performances from companies like Haidilao and Alibaba [7][19]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 457.1 billion yuan [1]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month was -7.7%, while the relative performance was -6.9% compared to the benchmark [2]. Market Performance - The consumer services sector's weekly performance was 1.53%, compared to a decline of 0.57% for the CSI 300 index and a 0.51% increase for the overall A-share market [7]. - The report notes that the sector's stocks, such as Haidilao and Alibaba, have shown significant gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the consumer services industry [4][19]. Upcoming Events - Several companies in the consumer services sector are scheduled to hold shareholder meetings in the coming month, including Dalian Shengya on February 2, Qujiang Cultural Tourism on January 22, and Chuangye Heima on January 21 [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the private aircraft industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [54]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the 2026 SR Series G7+ by Cirrus, which includes significant upgrades and is still considered undervalued in the private aircraft sector [3][4]. - Cirrus has shown strong performance with a 25.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, and a 72.5% increase in adjusted profit, indicating a robust market position [10][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of safety and convenience in Cirrus's business model, which has helped it maintain a leading position in the private aircraft market [21][22]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Cirrus Aircraft - Cirrus launched the 2026 SR Series G7+, featuring new avionics, enhanced global connectivity, and upgraded propeller options, aimed at improving pilot workload and safety [4][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of $594 million (approximately 4.256 billion RMB) in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of $65 million (approximately 465 million RMB), showcasing significant growth [10][21]. - Cirrus's market share in the general aviation sector reached 26.7% in Q3 2025, reinforcing its leadership status [17]. Section 2: Domestic Engine Development - The report discusses the successful delivery of the Arolar aircraft powered by the domestically developed CA500 engine, marking a significant milestone in China's general aviation industry [24][25]. - This development is expected to enhance the domestic aviation power system's independence from imports, providing new opportunities for the industry [26]. Section 3: Low Altitude Economy Index - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index decreased by 0.2% this week but has increased by 7.4% year-to-date, outperforming major indices like the CSI 300 [28][30]. - The report identifies key stocks with significant weekly gains, including Zhongke Xingtong (22%) and Yingliu Co. (13%), while noting declines in stocks like Sichuan Aerospace (17%) [31][32]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various segments of the low altitude economy, including manufacturers like Cirrus and eVTOL companies, as well as supply chain participants such as Zongshen Power and Yingliu Co. [36][37]. - It emphasizes the importance of digitalization and infrastructure development in the low altitude sector, recommending companies involved in these areas for potential investment [36][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the logistics sector, particularly focusing on the strategic partnership between SF Express and J&T Express [1][3]. Core Insights - SF Express and J&T Express have deepened their strategic partnership through mutual share subscriptions, enhancing resource sharing and complementary advantages [2][11]. - The collaboration aims to leverage SF Express's cross-border logistics strengths and J&T's local delivery capabilities to create a more efficient end-to-end fulfillment system [14][18]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant synergies between the two companies, particularly in global logistics network development and infrastructure layout [2][14]. Industry Data Tracking Aviation Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger volume increased by 7.4% year-on-year, with an average ticket price decrease of 0.4% [25]. - The domestic average passenger load factor reached 86.6%, up by 3.5% year-on-year [25]. Aviation Cargo Transport - The outbound cargo price index at Pudong Airport remained stable week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [36]. Shipping - VLCC freight rates surged by 87% week-on-week, while the BDI index decreased by 7% [43][76]. - The SCFI index for container shipping fell by 4.4% week-on-week, indicating a mixed performance across different routes [77]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued optimism for SF Express, highlighting its "Gain Plan" and collaboration with J&T as key factors for structural optimization [17][20]. - For the e-commerce express sector, it recommends J&T for its high growth potential in overseas markets and suggests opportunities in leading domestic companies like Zhongtong and YTO due to improving market dynamics [20][22][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third week of January, the decline in food prices widened, and the macro - positive factors were basically digested. The upward trends of commodity futures and spot prices narrowed. - In terms of inflation, the decline in the food price index widened, and the supporting effect of pork on the index narrowed. - In terms of exports, container shipping demand remained stable. Except for the continued increase in freight rates on the North American route, other routes showed corrections. - In terms of investment, while the prices of rebar and coal continued to rise slightly month - on - month, the decline in cement prices continued to expand, and asphalt production remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The release of incremental infrastructure demand was still mild. - In terms of real estate, due to the impact of new policies, the transactions of new and second - hand houses increased month - on - month. - For the bond market, the PMI and import - export data in December exceeded expectations, showing a year - end data sprint characteristic. The Q4 economic data to be released on the 19th is expected to be strong, with GDP likely to reach around 5%. There may be a tail - end acceleration in production in December. - The macro - policy positives around the New Year's Day holiday have been basically digested, and with stricter financing supervision, the equity and commodity markets cooled this week. Looking ahead, during the key "good start" period in January, production and investment are expected to continue to gain momentum, and the PMI at the end of the month may still rise slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of strong data on market expectations [4][37]. Summary According to the Directory Inflation - related - The decline in food prices widened. This week (January 10 - 16), the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.65% and 0.73% month - on - month respectively, with the decline expanding. - Pork prices rose moderately, with the national average wholesale price of pork increasing by 0.45% month - on - month. Fruit prices rebounded from a decline, rising by 0.7% [4][10][37]. Import - export related - Container shipping prices showed a split trend, with the CCFI index rising by 1.3% month - on - month and the SCFI index falling by 4.5% month - on - month. In response to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the cargo volume in the export container shipping market increased slightly, and the freight rates of different routes showed different trends. - Bulk shipping weakened. The BDI and CDFI indices both saw an expansion in their declines [4][15][37]. Industry - related - Coal prices continued to rise. Although the daily consumption of coastal power plants decreased after reaching a peak, the heating and replenishment demand increased, and the rigid demand for procurement in the building materials and chemical industries provided support. - The increase in rebar prices slightly expanded. Supported by phased replenishment and infrastructure project rush - work, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded, but the terminal demand has not substantially recovered. - The asphalt production rate increased month - on - month, but there were regional differences in demand. - The increase in copper prices narrowed. The continued rise was supported by factors such as loose liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks, but the increase was restricted due to factors such as the Fed's statement and volatile oil prices. - The glass futures market turned from rising to falling, and the spot inventory decreased [16][18][22]. Investment - related - The decline in cement prices expanded, with the cement price index decreasing by 1.20% week - on - week on average. The supply and demand in the national cement market were both weak, with regional differences. - The transactions of new and second - hand houses showed a slight recovery. From January 9 - 15, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities increased by 26% month - on - month and 7% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand houses increased by 17.3% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 13.4% [5][25][28]. Consumption - related - In the first week of January, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 32% year - on - year. From January 1 - 11, the retail sales volume of the passenger car market was 328,000 units, with a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 42%. - Oil prices maintained a moderate increase. As of January 16, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.25% and 0.5% respectively month - on - month, with the increase narrowing [3][31].