Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 14.00 yuan [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase driven by new product launches, achieving a revenue of 950 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 26.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 111 million yuan, up 59.1% year-on-year [2][5]. - In Q4 2025, the company generated a revenue of 300 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, although the net profit decreased by 9.8% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product range and enhancing its brand presence in the domestic market, which is expected to drive revenue growth in the future [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 950 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 111 million yuan, with a growth rate of 59.0% [5][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.34 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35 times [5][10]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 1,077 million yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 24.7% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][13]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a net profit growth of no less than 30% for 2025, driven by increased sales of high-refractive and multifunctional lenses, scale effects, automation improvements, and optimized financial structure [1]. - The company is well-positioned in the smart glasses market, with ongoing collaborations with major clients and positive feedback from end-users on delivered products [7]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will reach 564 million HKD in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 31.7% [3][8]. Financial Performance - Total revenue is expected to grow from 2,061 million HKD in 2024 to 2,347 million HKD in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 13.9% [3]. - The company's net profit is projected to increase from 428 million HKD in 2024 to 564 million HKD in 2025, with a net profit margin improvement to 24% [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.89 HKD in 2024 to 1.18 HKD in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its global production capacity, with plans in Japan and Thailand, while steadily expanding its domestic distribution channels [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on the smart glasses segment, which is expected to become a significant growth driver alongside its traditional lens manufacturing business [7]. - The target price for the company's stock has been raised to 69.36 HKD, reflecting a favorable valuation based on projected earnings [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The human-shaped robot's ability to run smoothly represents a significant technological leap from mere functionality to human-like capabilities, indicating a potential shift towards practical applications in complex environments [9][20] - The competition in the humanoid robot industry has evolved into a multi-dimensional strategic game, with different focuses across the supply chain, emphasizing the need for companies to integrate technology, establish standards, and meet real industry demands [22][30] - The future of humanoid robots hinges on overcoming five critical conditions: technological maturity, cost control, clear market positioning, infrastructure development, and societal acceptance [30][31] Summary by Sections Section 1: The Impact of Robot Running Demonstrations - The recent running demonstrations by Tesla's Optimus and Figure AI have generated significant global interest, suggesting a potential breakthrough in the commercialization of humanoid robots [5][6] - These demonstrations challenge the notion that advanced robotics can only exist in controlled environments, indicating a shift towards practical, scalable applications [31] Section 2: Technical Breakdown of Running Capabilities - Achieving running capabilities involves overcoming substantial technical challenges, including dynamic balance, rapid response times, and energy efficiency [10][19] - The transition from walking to running signifies a fundamental change in robotic capabilities, moving from static to dynamic balance, which is essential for operating in unpredictable environments [12][20] Section 3: Business Logic Behind the Demonstrations - The timing of these demonstrations reflects a strategic move by industry leaders to signal their technological advancements and readiness for market integration [32] - Both Tesla and Figure AI are pursuing different paths: Tesla aims for a universal platform while Figure AI focuses on specific industrial applications, highlighting the diverse strategies within the industry [26][30] Section 4: Industry Chain Dynamics - The competition among suppliers, manufacturers, and application developers is intensifying, with each segment vying for control over standards and market share [22][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a robust ecosystem that supports the development and deployment of humanoid robots in real-world applications [30] Section 5: Future Outlook - The next few years are critical for validating the feasibility of humanoid robots, with key indicators including commercial orders, supply chain formation, and cost reduction trends [31] - The industry is at a pivotal moment, transitioning from experimental demonstrations to practical implementations that can deliver economic value [31]

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2026年1月17日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第159期 隐形正畸行业近况更新 本周专题联系人：李婵娟 张良龙 华创医药团队： | 首席分析师 | 郑辰 | | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联席首席分析师 | | 刘浩 | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长 | | 李婵娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长 | | 高初蕾 | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 | 王宏雨 | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 | 朱珂琛 | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukechen@hc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [61]. Core Insights - The domestic passenger load factor for listed airlines continues to improve, with Spring Airlines leading at 92.2% in December, and Air China showing the highest year-on-year increase [1]. - The report highlights a structural improvement in demand for the aviation industry, with a notable recovery in cross-border travel demand outpacing domestic demand [9]. - The report emphasizes the high elasticity of prices under high load factors, indicating potential for price increases as the industry recovers [9]. Summary by Sections 1) Domestic Routes - In December, the ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth was led by Spring Airlines at 16.4%, followed by China Southern Airlines at 6.8% and Air China at 4.2% [2]. - The RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth for December was also led by Spring Airlines at 17.7%, with Air China at 10.6% and China Southern Airlines at 6.9% [2]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, East China Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 10.7%, while Spring Airlines and East China Airlines both had RPK growth of 9.1% [2]. 2) International Routes - In December, China Southern Airlines led with an ASK growth of 25.8%, followed by East China Airlines at 9.4% and Air China at 4.1% [3]. - The RPK growth for December was also led by China Southern Airlines at 22.8%, with East China Airlines at 11.0% and Air China at 9.1% [3]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) showed the highest ASK growth at 37.6% and RPK growth at 43.5% [3]. 3) Regional Routes - In December, Spring Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 92.0%, while 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) experienced a decline of 20.2% [4]. - The RPK growth for December was again led by Spring Airlines at 97.5%, with 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) showing a decline of 15.9% [4]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, China Southern Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 3.1%, while Spring Airlines and 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) both showed significant declines [4]. 4) Passenger Load Factor - In December, Spring Airlines had a load factor of 91.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [5]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, Spring Airlines maintained a load factor of 91.5%, with Air China at 81.9% showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [5]. - The total fleet of the five listed airlines increased by 15 aircraft by December 2025, with a year-on-year fleet growth of 4% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for TSMC, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [50]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached NT$1,046.09 billion (US$33.73 billion), a year-over-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.9%, exceeding the upper guidance range [8][10]. - The gross margin for Q4 2025 improved to 62.3%, up from 59.5% in the previous quarter, driven by cost improvements and higher capacity utilization [2][8]. - The company plans to significantly increase capital expenditures, with a projected budget of US$52 billion to US$56 billion for 2026, focusing on advanced technology and long-term capacity expansion [4][22]. Summary by Sections 1. TSMC Q4 2025 Operational Performance - Revenue: Q4 2025 revenue was NT$1,046.09 billion (US$33.73 billion), up 25.5% YoY and 1.9% QoQ, supported by strong demand for leading technology [8][10]. - Gross Margin: Achieved a gross margin of 62.3%, higher than the guidance range, due to cost improvements and favorable exchange rates [8][10]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders was NT$505.74 billion, reflecting a 35.0% YoY increase [8][10]. 2. Revenue Breakdown - By Platform: In Q4 2025, mobile accounted for 32% of revenue, HPC 55%, IoT 5%, automotive 5%, and digital consumer electronics 1% [14]. - By Process Technology: Revenue from 3nm process technology constituted 28%, while 5nm accounted for 35% [18]. 3. TSMC Q1 2026 Guidance - Revenue Guidance: TSMC expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between US$34.6 billion and US$35.8 billion, representing a YoY growth of approximately 38% [5][22]. - Gross Margin Guidance: Expected gross margin for Q1 2026 is between 63% and 65% [5][22]. 4. Capital Expenditure - Q4 2025 capital expenditure was approximately US$11.51 billion, with a total capital expenditure for 2025 increasing to US$40.9 billion from US$29.8 billion in 2024 [4][12]. - The capital budget for 2026 is projected to be between US$52 billion and US$56 billion, with a significant portion allocated to advanced technology [4][22]. 5. Global Manufacturing Layout - TSMC is accelerating capacity expansion in Arizona, with plans for multiple fabs to meet strong AI demand [11][15]. - The company is also expanding its manufacturing capabilities in Japan and Europe, supported by local government initiatives [15].

Export Structure Overview - In 2025, China's export structure shows a significant contribution from emerging markets, with a 49.1% share, up 2.5 percentage points from 2024[21] - Exports to the US decreased to 11.1%, down 3.5 percentage points from 2024, while non-US developed markets increased to 39.8%, up 1 percentage point[21] Commodity Contribution - Intermediate goods' export share rose from 41.9% in 2017 to 47.4% in 2025, with an annual increase of 0.7 percentage points[28] - Consumer goods' share fell from 36.6% to 28.7%, with an average annual decline of about 1 percentage point[28] - Capital goods' share slightly decreased from 21.5% to 20.1%, maintaining relative stability[28] Growth Contribution - From 2018 to 2025, the contribution of intermediate goods to export growth increased from 55.8% to 85%, while consumer goods' contribution dropped from 24.7% to -34%[28] - Capital goods' contribution rose from 19.4% to 22.4% during the same period[28] Regional Analysis - In the US, intermediate goods' share increased by 2.7 percentage points to 33.2%, while consumer goods decreased by 1 percentage point to 43.3%[41] - In the EU, intermediate goods remained stable at 39.3%, with consumer goods dropping by 3.1 percentage points to 31.7%[46] - In ASEAN, intermediate goods rose by 3.1 percentage points to 61.6%, while consumer goods fell by 5 percentage points to 19.1%[52] Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are driving growth, with significant contributions from regions like Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America, which collectively boosted exports by 5.6%[22] - The overall export growth for China in 2025 is projected at 5.5%, a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year[21]

- The report constructs an equal-weighted index based on the stocks investigated by fund managers over the past six months, with the "Research Stock-All Sample Index" achieving a cumulative return of 21.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2% during the same period[5][13][14] - The "Research Stock-Growth Index" achieved a cumulative return of 20.5% over the past six months, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2% during the same period. Additionally, the representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate reached 29.2%, outperforming both the Growth Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[25][26][27] - The "Research Stock-Balanced Index" recorded a cumulative return of 25.7% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 19.8%, which is lower than the Balanced Index but higher than the Shanghai Composite Index[32][33][34] - The "Research Stock-Value Index" achieved a cumulative return of 18.3% over the past six months, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 8.8%, which is lower than both the Value Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[39][40][42] - The "Research Stock-Large Cap Index" achieved a cumulative return of 23.8% over the past six months, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate reached 28.4%, outperforming both the Large Cap Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[51][52][54] - The "Research Stock-Mid Cap Index" recorded a cumulative return of 23.9% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 23.0%, which is close to the Mid Cap Index and higher than the Shanghai Composite Index[61][62][61] - The "Research Stock-Small Cap Index" achieved a cumulative return of 19.2% over the past six months, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 17.5%, which is lower than the Small Cap Index but higher than the Shanghai Composite Index[68][69][71] - The "Research Stock-TMT Index" achieved a cumulative return of 23.9% over the past six months, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate reached 38.8%, outperforming both the TMT Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[79][80][79] - The "Research Stock-Manufacturing Index" recorded a cumulative return of 23.4% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 29.4%, outperforming both the Manufacturing Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[87][88][87] - The "Research Stock-Consumer Index" achieved a cumulative return of 7.5% over the past six months, slightly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 1.9%, which is lower than both the Consumer Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[94][95][94] - The "Research Stock-Cycle Index" recorded a cumulative return of 21.3% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 29.2%, outperforming both the Cycle Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[100][101][100] - The "Research Stock-Financial Real Estate Index" achieved a cumulative return of 33.2% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 7.7%, which is lower than both the Financial Real Estate Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[107][108][107]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【专题报告】 收益差择时系列之二：如何在 A 股指数与恒 生指数构建多空模型？ ❖ 摘要 本文是华创金工在港股指数量化择时研究的第三篇，上一篇《收益差择时 模型：基于 A 股指数与恒生指数的实证》构建了上下行收益差的多头策略， 本文的目标是构建上下行收益差的多空策略。 上下行收益差多空策略在 A 股指数上的年化收益与夏普比率基本上超越 了各自上下行收益差多头策略。尤其在上证 50 指数、沪深 300 指数、上证 180 指数、中证 100 指数大盘风格指数的年化和夏普均能显著超越各自多头策略， 历史回溯表现优秀。 在恒生指数上面，上下行收益差多空策略与成交额上下行收益差多空策略 表现并不尽入人意。因此我们另辟蹊径，选择上证 50 指数作为恒生指数的相 似指数，构建了上下行收益差相似多头策略与上下行收益差相似多空策略。 上下行收益差相似多头策略在恒生指数(HSI)表现如下，年化收益为 8.86%，最大回撤为 41.72%，夏普比率 0.4，胜率 48.80%，盈亏比 1.93。上下 行收益差相似多头策略在恒生国企指数(HSCEI)表现如下，年化收益为 12.3%， 最大回撤为 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 事 项 2025 年 12 月，社融存量同比 8.3%（前值 8.5%），M2 同比 8.5%（前值 8 %）， 新口径 M1 同比 3.8%（前值 4.9%）。 ❖ 核心观点。 1、对于当下的流动性判断： 【宏观快评】 12 月 M2 同比抬升的原因及影响 ——12月金融数据点评 ①从整体的流动性来看，新增居民存款/新增 M2 这一比值仍维持在低位，这 对应当下宏观整体的流动性仍相对充裕，金融资产估值仍有支撑； ②从实体经济的流动性来看，12 月与企业预期更相关的旧口径 M1 同比回落 1.8%，领先企业利润增速的企业居民存款剪刀差回落 0.9%，两者均为 2024 年 9 月以来的最大跌幅。 ③从金融市场的流动性来看，与企业存款的弱势不同，12 月非银存款同比大 幅多增，这也与 12 月以来权益市场成交金额的火热相匹配。企业存款弱，非 银存款强，短期资金存在"脱实向虚"的可能。 2、对于未来的流动性判断： 3、但我们提示本轮宽松过峰有三点不同： ①由于经济景气当下主要集中在中游，而中游的需求更依赖海外，因此流动性 收缩对中游利润冲击并不明显； ②结合国际经验来看，只要没开 ...