证 券 研 究 报 告 思特威-W（688213）深度研究报告 强推（首次） L3 获批有望加速智驾落地，"安防+手机+汽 车"共驱成长 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,968 | 9,206 | 12,218 | 15,142 | | 同比增速(%) | 108.9% | 54.3% | 32.7% | 23.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 393 | 1,001 | 1,431 | 1,902 | | 同比增速(%) | 2,662.8% | 154.8% | 43.0% | 32.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.98 | 2.49 | 3.56 | 4.73 | | 市盈率(倍) | 98 | 38 | 27 | 20 | | 市净率(倍) | 9.2 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 26 日收盘价 公司研究 集成电路 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the bond market in November 2025 based on the central bank's balance sheet and bond custody data, presenting the latest ideas of the central bank's monetary policy and the new dynamics of institutional investors' bond - market investment strategies, and predicting short - term investment opportunities and risks in the bond market [9]. - In the cross - year allocation window, some trading opportunities can be appropriately participated in, and when the 10y Treasury bond approaches 1.85%, it has a safety margin and can also be appropriately allocated. For 30y bonds, small - band operations can be carried out when the 30 - 10y spread is above 40bp, and larger positions require the start of a decline in the 10y Treasury bond yield or an improvement in the supply - demand structure of ultra - long bonds. The cross - year funds are expected to remain loose, and the coupon - holding strategy can be continued, with different strategies for different types of investors [10][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 11 - month Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation 3.1.1 November 2025 Central Bank Balance Sheet Change Interpretation - In November 2025, the central bank's balance sheet size increased from 47.06 trillion yuan to 47.30 trillion yuan. The main increase items on the asset side were "claims on other depository corporations", and on the liability side, they were "currency issue" and "deposits of other depository corporations", while the main decrease item was "deposits of financial corporations not included in reserve money" [15]. - On the asset side, near the end of the year, the central bank "withdrew short - term funds and released long - term funds", and the increment of "claims on other depository corporations" rebounded. The central bank increased its net purchase of Treasury bonds, and its Treasury bond holdings increased slightly after considering the maturity of the month. - On the liability side, due to the strong demand for cash by residents and enterprises at the end of the year, the "currency issue" and "deposits of other depository corporations" of the central bank increased seasonally [27] 3.1.2 Impact of the Central Bank's Operations on Custody Volume in November 2025 - In November 2025, the central bank carried out 150 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations and a net purchase of 5 billion yuan of Treasury bonds, with a total net investment of 54.88 billion yuan through innovative tools. The single - month increase in the "ChinaBond - Other" (central bank) account was 59.07 billion yuan, which was relatively close to the net investment scale of innovative tools. The main incremental bond types were Treasury bonds and local government bonds [31][32] 3.2 Leverage Ratio: Driven by the Carry Trade Space, the Institutional Leverage Level Continued to Rise - In November, with the central bank's increased volume of outright reverse repurchases and MLF and the help of fiscal expenditures, the capital market was generally stable. The carry - trade strategy of institutions was dominant, the average monthly trading volume of the whole - market pledged repurchase increased from 7.3 trillion yuan in October to 7.5 trillion yuan in November, and further rose to 8.3 trillion yuan since December. The average leverage ratio of bond funds increased from 116.9% in October to 117% in November, and further to 118.7% since December [34] 3.3 By Institution: The Power of Allocation - Oriented Investors Remained, Funds Reduced Duration, and Wealth Management Reserves Coupon - Bearing Assets 3.3.1 Reasons for the Widening of the 30 - 10y Spread - In the long - run, the imbalance in the supply - demand structure of ultra - long bonds may affect the spread center, including the continuous lengthening of government bond issuance terms and the weakening of the allocation demand for ultra - long bonds. However, in the short - term, the direct reason for the widening of the 30 - 10y spread was the large - scale selling by trading - oriented investors such as funds and securities companies [43][46] 3.3.2 Banks: Large - Scale Banks' Short - Term Bond Buying Continued to Increase, and Rural Commercial Banks' Sentiment towards Allocating Certificates of Deposit Improved - Large - scale banks: In November, the single - month bond investment volume increased significantly. In the primary market, the demand for underwriting government bonds increased, and in the secondary market, the net buying of short - term bonds was strengthened. Due to the pressure of duration indicators, the continuous buying of short - term bonds by large - scale banks led to a continuous widening of the 10 - 3y Treasury bond term spread [55][58] - Rural commercial banks: The sentiment towards allocating bonds improved, and they turned to net buyers of certificates of deposit. In November, the net selling scale decreased significantly, and they increased their positions in some bonds during the bond - market adjustment. Since December, with the rising spread between certificates of deposit and Treasury bonds, rural commercial banks turned to net buyers of certificates of deposit [61] 3.3.3 Insurance: During the Bond - Market Adjustment, Insurance Increased Positions at High Yields, Mainly Increasing Positions in Exchange - Traded Local Government Bonds - In November, as the bond - market yield fluctuated upward, insurance companies increased their positions at high yields, mainly increasing their positions in exchange - traded local government bonds. The total monthly bond - allocation increment in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased, and the net buying scale also rose [70] 3.3.4 General Funds: Driven by the Defensive Mentality, Funds Reduced Duration and Sold Ultra - Long Bonds, and Wealth Management Reserves Coupon - Bearing Assets in Advance - Funds: In November, the redemption pressure of funds reappeared, and the scale of bond funds was under pressure. Driven by the defensive mentality, they reduced duration and sold ultra - long bonds, with the net buying scale significantly weaker than the seasonal level. Since mid - December, the sentiment towards allocating bonds has improved [81] - Bank wealth management: Supported by the transfer of deposits, the scale of bank wealth management increased, and the main allocation varieties switched from certificates of deposit to short - term credit bonds, preparing coupon - bearing assets for the next year in advance [84] 3.3.5 Foreign Capital: The Comprehensive Return on Investing in Certificates of Deposit Remained at a Low Level, and the Net Outflow of Foreign Capital Accelerated - In November 2025, the comprehensive return on foreign capital's investment in certificates of deposit remained at a low level, and the net outflow scale increased, mainly reducing positions in certificates of deposit and Treasury bonds [93] 3.4 By Bond Type: The Main Support for the Increment of the Bond - Market Custody Volume was Government Bonds - In November, the increment of the bond - market custody volume increased to 1.4798 trillion yuan, and government bonds were the main support, with the increments of Treasury bonds and local government bonds being 645.7 billion yuan and 590.2 billion yuan respectively [95] - Interest - rate bonds: The net financing scale increased. The net financing scale of interest - rate bonds increased from 623 billion yuan to 1495.1 billion yuan, with the net financing scale of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all rising [102] - Certificates of deposit: The maturity pressure increased, and the net financing of certificates of deposit decreased significantly. In November, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit increased significantly, the issuance scale decreased, and the net financing scale dropped from 796.9 billion yuan to - 511.2 billion yuan [105]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming year [1]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see a recovery in market expectations driven by three potential catalysts: the implementation of subsidy policies, better-than-expected export figures in Q1 (with November exports increasing by 45%), and stronger-than-expected retail sales post-Spring Festival [1]. - Retail sales for Q4 2025 have been revised downwards due to previous expectations of demand being pulled forward, with a forecast of a 14% decline in retail sales for Q4 2025, followed by a slight growth of 0.3% in 2025 [2]. - The report highlights the performance of key automotive companies, recommending Geely and JAC Motors due to their strong product cycles and potential for significant profit increases [5]. Data Tracking - In early December, discount rates slightly decreased, with an average discount amount of 22,156 yuan, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month [4]. - In October, wholesale vehicle sales reached 2.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, while retail sales fell by 9.2% year-on-year [4]. - The report provides detailed sales figures for new energy vehicle manufacturers, with BYD delivering 480,186 units in November, a 5.3% year-on-year decline but an 8.7% increase from the previous month [6]. Market Performance - The automotive sector index increased by 2.66% this week, ranking 12th out of 29 sectors [9]. - The report notes that the automotive sector's performance is improving, with a significant number of stocks showing positive growth [31]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the automotive sector is reported at 33, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [31].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美联储降息≠人民币升值≠出口承压——汇 率升值叙事的三重纠偏 ❖ 核心观点：1、热门叙事及核心逻辑是什么？美联储降息→人民币升值→或损 害出口竞争力。 2、叙事逻辑的不严密之处在哪？1）美联储降息"未必"等于美元趋势走弱； 2）人民币升值"未必"等于出口竞争力受损。 3、怎么看待后续人民币汇率？我们认为，首先人民币汇率估值中性，不存在 高低估问题。内部来看，人民币汇率在出口韧性与政策呵护下，有稳定的基础， 但趋势性大幅回升的基本面动能或仍有待进一步积累，同时政策层面逆周期因 子影子近期持续平抑升值波动；外部来看，美国预防式降息或有助于支撑其经 济增长和资产价格相对优势，叠加美元指数空仓交易已较为极致，单边持续走 弱的压力或有限。因此人民币对美元出现趋势性大幅升值概率或不高。不过， 5 月以来的人民币升值或已释放部分企业待结汇头寸，人民币汇率可承受的波 动区间或相应拓宽，且仍需注意，剩余积压外汇盘在重要整数 7.0 关口可能释 放，放大升值波动。 放长远来看，只有经济基本面支持下的大幅升值才是持续的、能承受的、合意 的。汇率虽然在短期看起来总像是可动用的工具和原因 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting a positive outlook due to macroeconomic sentiment and policy resonance leading to rising metal prices [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the weakening US dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand dynamics have significantly boosted precious metal prices, with gold reaching 1016 CNY per gram (+3.71% week-on-week), silver at 18308 CNY per kilogram (+19.07%), platinum at 2534.7 USD per ounce (+29.37%), and palladium at 2060.5 USD per ounce (+27.03%) [3]. - The report expresses a long-term bullish view on precious metals, citing sustained demand from central banks and industrial applications, particularly for silver, which has seen a historical price surge due to supply shortages and increased ETF demand [3]. - The report notes that the copper smelting profit margins are expected to be impacted by an oversupply of smelting capacity, prompting the government to encourage mergers and acquisitions to enhance bargaining power for imported copper concentrates [4]. - The report discusses the encouragement from the National Development and Reform Commission for large-scale mergers in the alumina industry, which has led to a slight rebound in alumina prices despite high inventory levels and anticipated price declines due to lower raw material costs [5]. - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high, indicating potential for aluminum price elasticity and dividends, with expectations of sustained high profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector [6][11]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Precious metals have seen significant price increases due to a combination of a weaker dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand conditions [3]. - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold and silver prices, driven by investment demand and industrial applications [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report highlights the government's push for consolidation in the alumina sector, which may stabilize prices despite current oversupply conditions [5]. - The copper-aluminum price ratio indicates strong potential for aluminum price increases, supported by low global inventories and production constraints [6][11]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper smelting sector faces challenges due to excess capacity, leading to calls for industry consolidation to improve competitiveness [4]. Precious Metals - The report recommends investment in precious metal stocks, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as silver and copper stocks, reflecting a positive outlook for these sectors [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, with a focus on AI equipment and consumables, as well as commercial aerospace [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth in demand for high-performance servers, GPUs, and advanced PCBs driven by the surge in AI technology and applications. The global PCB industry is projected to grow from $73.6 billion in 2024 to $96.4 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.6% [7][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements in PCB equipment and consumables, particularly in drilling and exposure equipment, which are expected to see significant market growth due to the increasing complexity of AI applications [22][24]. - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a critical phase with the successful launch of reusable rockets, which could significantly reduce satellite launch costs and accelerate satellite networking processes [7][24]. Summary by Sections Industry and Company Investment Views - The report discusses the impact of AI on PCB demand, noting that the need for high-density and high-layer PCBs is increasing, which will drive the demand for advanced drilling and exposure equipment [22][24]. - Key companies to watch include Dingtai High-Tech and Zhongtung High-New in the consumables sector, and Dazhu CNC and Xinqi Micro-Assembly in the equipment sector [7][24]. - The report suggests that the equipment industry is entering a golden age due to the expansion of AI infrastructure, with significant growth expected in drilling and exposure equipment markets [22][24]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides macroeconomic data, including the manufacturing PMI index and fixed asset investment growth rates, which are crucial for understanding the overall health of the mechanical industry [26][30]. - The mechanical sector has shown a strong performance, with a 4.5% increase in the sector index, outperforming the broader market indices [11][16]. Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the mechanical sector, with several companies rated as "Strong Buy," indicating strong expected growth in earnings per share (EPS) and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [2][8].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 60 期） 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 海外观察：美国发布《先进空中交通国家战 推荐（维持） 略 2026-2036》 交通运输 2025 年 12 月 28 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 121 | ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20251222-20251226） 短期择时看多指数增加，后市或震荡偏多 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨 1.88%，创业板指单周上涨 3.9%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型所有宽基指数中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型看多。特征成交量 模型看空。智能算法沪深 300 模型中性，智能算法中证 500 模型中性。 中期：涨跌停模型看多。上下行收益差模型所有宽基指数看多。月历效应模型 中性。 长期：长期动量模型看多。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看多。A 股综合国证 2000 模型中性。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。恒生指数上下行收益差模型中性。 本周行业指数普遍上涨，涨幅前五的行业为：有色金属、国防军工、基础化工、 建材、电子，跌幅前五的行业为：商贸零售、银行、煤炭、食品饮料、医药。 从资金流向角度来说，基础化工、电力设备及新能源、银行、纺织服装主力资 金净流入居前，电子、计算机、医药、通信、传媒主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 96.46%，相较于上周减少了 118 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 87.99%，相较于上 ...

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Indicator" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the total heat indicators of individual stocks within broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[7] - The total heat indicator for individual stocks is defined as the sum of browsing, self-selection, and click counts, normalized by the market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][7] - The report constructs a rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the "others" group has the highest change rate[13][16] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 36.71% in 2025[16] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on concept heat: a "TOP" portfolio consisting of the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat in the hottest concepts, and a "BOTTOM" portfolio consisting of the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat in the hottest concepts[32][33] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 42.4% in 2025[34] - The heat change rate (MA2) for broad-based indices this week shows that the CSI 500 index has the highest increase of 7.1%, while the CSI 300 index has the largest decrease of 5.08%[2][16] - The heat change rate (MA2) for Shenwan primary industries this week shows that the top five industries with the highest positive change rates are retail, building materials, automotive, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemicals, while the top five industries with the highest negative change rates are banking, coal, media, computer, and electronics[2][27] - The heat change rate (MA2) for Shenwan secondary industries this week shows that the top five industries with the highest positive change rates are environmental equipment II, special steel II, glass fiber, beverage and dairy, and aerospace equipment II[2][27] - The top five concepts with the highest heat change rates this week are sugar substitute, automotive dismantling, civil explosives, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and PVDF concept[2][28]

Group 1: Overall Industrial Profit Trends - In November, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises decreased to -13.1%, down from -5.5% in the previous month[2] - As of November, inventory increased by 4.6% year-on-year, compared to 3.7% in the previous month[2] - State-owned industrial enterprises saw a profit growth rate of -17.0%, while private enterprises had -12.6%, and foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan enterprises reported -7.3%[2] Group 2: Midstream Sector Performance - The midstream sector showed a profit growth rate of 6.77% in November, the only sector with positive growth, compared to -3.85% previously[5] - Midstream revenue growth was 4.66% in November, outperforming other sectors[5] - The midstream PPI turned positive for the first time since June 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.04%[19] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The electronic equipment manufacturing industry saw a profit increase of 57.4%, driven by rapid development in aerospace and intelligent products[5] - The mining sector's profit growth was -21.16%, while manufacturing and electric heat, gas, and water sectors reported -13.54% and -1.59%, respectively[31] - The midstream sector's profit margin in November was 5.7%, higher than the previous year's 5.5%[19]