Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the liquidity situation in December 2025 and makes a forecast for January 2026. In December, the central bank actively injected liquidity, and the funds across the year were stable. The monetary policy emphasizes cross - cycle balance and flexible and efficient use of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. In January, the liquidity gap pressure is relatively large, and the potential disturbances on the bank's liability side may increase in the middle and late months, but the funds fluctuation may be relatively mild, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the bank's liability pressure after the increase in fiscal factor disturbances [1][3][4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. December 2025 Funds and Liquidity Review: Active Injection, Stable across the Year (1) Funds Review: Narrow - range Fluctuation Continued In December 2025, the overnight fluctuation range narrowed compared with the previous month, and the 7D funds fluctuation range widened. The overnight funds basically ran stably around 1.28%, and the 7D funds were stable around 1.45% from the beginning of the month to the 23rd, then rose continuously until reaching 1.9821% on the 31st. The overnight and 7D funds did not show an inversion. The funds were loose at the beginning of the month, the central bank carried out 100 billion yuan of 3M repurchase on the 5th, and 60 billion yuan of 6M repurchase in the middle of the month, continuing the "short - term contraction and long - term expansion" operation. At the end of the year, affected by seasonal factors, the 7D funds price fluctuated slightly. The funds across the year were relatively stable [11][12]. (2) Liquidity Review: The Central Bank Actively Injected in December, Continuing the "Short - term Contraction and Long - term Expansion" - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In December, the base money may have increased by 1.7 trillion yuan, with government deposits supplementing about 1 trillion yuan, the central bank's net injection totaling 752.8 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds continuing to withdraw slightly by 7 billion yuan. After deducting the consumption of excess reserves, the excess reserves at the end of the month may have increased by about 1 trillion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio may be around 1.5%, at a seasonal level. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases may be around 0.8%, close to the seasonal level [36]. - **Open - market Operations**: In December, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchases slightly increased, with a net injection of 28.19 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 40 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan matured, with a balance of 6.25 trillion yuan. The net injection of the outright reverse repurchase was 20 billion yuan, with a balance of 6.5 trillion yuan. The central bank also net - bought 5 billion yuan of national debt, carried out 26 billion yuan of treasury time deposits, and 15.94 billion yuan of PSL and other structural tools [46][51][54]. 2. December 2025 Monetary Policy Tracking: Focus on Cross - cycle Balance, Flexibly and Efficiently Use Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts In December 2025, important meetings emphasized "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts." The overall loosening may be relatively prudent, but the idea of liquidity protection continues. The central bank emphasizes cross - cycle balance to avoid large - scale policy expansion and contraction. The central economic work conference takes promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. The fourth - quarter monetary policy meeting first proposed to "give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies." In a neutral scenario next year, the policy interest rate is likely to be cut once, with a range of 10bp [3][57][63]. 3. January 2026 Gap Prediction: Disturbances May Increase in the Middle and Late Months (1) Rigid Gap: Reserve Requirement Slightly Consumes Excess Reserves, and MLF Maturities Decrease Marginally In January, the increase in general deposits may consume about 32.96 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF matures at 20 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase matures at 1.7 trillion yuan (1.1 trillion yuan for 3M and 600 billion yuan for 6M), of which 1.1 trillion yuan of the 3M outright reverse repurchase was renewed on the 7th [69]. (2) Exogenous Shocks: Cash Withdrawal and Non - financial Institution Deposits Consume Liquidity at the End of the Year In January, cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits slightly consume excess reserves. Cash withdrawal may consume about 67.87 billion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 16.36 billion yuan [71]. (3) Fiscal Factors: A Big Month for Taxation, Coupled with Government Bond Issuance, May Partially Consume Reserves In January, government bond issuance pressure increases. Considering factors such as payment and refund, taxation, and fiscal expenditure, government deposits may consume about 1.2 trillion yuan of liquidity [4][75][76]. (4) Comprehensive Judgment: Stable at the Beginning of the Month, Disturbances May Increase in the Middle and Late Months In January, the liquidity gap pressure is relatively large, but the bank's liquidity level at the beginning of the month may be relatively abundant. Affected by factors such as the maturity of high - interest deposits and the renewal of large - scale certificates of deposit, the potential disturbances on the bank's liability side may increase in the middle and late months. However, considering the current relatively low excess reserve level, the central bank has no intention of large - scale withdrawal, and the Spring Festival is later, so the funds fluctuation may be relatively mild. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the bank's liability pressure after the increase in fiscal factor disturbances [4][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the economic operation was in the traditional off - season, but factors such as the late Spring Festival and the extended stocking cycle might boost industrial production. The export growth rate might decline slightly but still be better than that in October. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was expected to reach around 4.5%, and the whole - year GDP was likely to achieve 5% and end smoothly [3][6]. - For the bond market, there was little suspense about the economic data in December. The market mainly focused on the verification of the "good start" of the economy at the beginning of the year. With the concentrated implementation of macro - policies to stabilize growth at the end of the year, the "two new" policies were issued one week earlier than in 2025, and the support amount for the early - batch "two important" and central budget - investment plan projects also increased compared with the previous year. January 2026 was expected to be the window for the concentrated effect of the "good start" policies, and high - frequency verification during the data "vacuum period" should be concerned [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Inflation - CPI: It was expected that the CPI in December would rise to around 0.9% year - on - year. Fruit and vegetable prices supported the food price to rise above the seasonal level, and the non - food item was in line with the seasonality. The CPI was expected to increase by about 0.2% month - on - month [3][6][8]. - PPI: It was predicted that the PPI in December would rise to around - 1.9% year - on - year. The non - ferrous industry faced imported inflation pressure, and the prices of domestic bulk commodities such as steel and PTA improved. The PPI was expected to increase by about 0.2% month - on - month [3][6][14]. 3.2 Export - The export growth rate was expected to be around 5.0% in December. The export momentum in December was not weak, although the year - on - year growth rate of container throughput at ports was lower than that in November but better than that in October. The import was expected to increase by around 1.5% year - on - year, with the price support continuing to expand [3][21]. 3.3 Industrial The industrial growth rate in December was expected to be around 5.1%. The PMI in December returned above the boom - bust line, and the production sub - item further expanded. The late Spring Festival in 2026 extended the stocking cycle, which had a certain driving effect on production [3][6][24]. 3.4 Investment - The cumulative growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to December was expected to be around - 3.0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was about - 1.5%, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was about - 16.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was about + 1.2% [3][6][33]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail in December was expected to be around 1.0%. As the national subsidy funds were approaching the end, the marginal boost to automobile consumption from the subsidy decline weakened. The year - on - year decline in gasoline prices widened, and the drag on social retail from petroleum product consumption continued to increase [3][6][36]. 3.6 Financial Data - In December, the bill interest rate declined against the trend, reflecting the weak credit impulse at the end of the year. The new credit in December was expected to be about 80 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of 99 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year. The new social financing was about 1.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 58.85 billion yuan [3][6][45]. - The M2 growth rate was expected to remain around 8.0%. The new deposits were close to the seasonal level. From the asset side, the year - on - year growth rate of the credit balance might slightly decline to 6.3%, and the social financing growth rate might decline to around 8.4% affected by the high base of government bonds. From the liability side, the M2 in December might increase by 1.5 trillion yuan [3][48].

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 53 周） 新房成交环比高增，韶关对农村转移人口购 推荐（维持） 房给予契税补贴 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 01 月 07 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 相关研究报告 《商业地产行业跟踪报告：行业分化，强者恒强》 2025-12-31 《房地产行业周报（2025 年第 52 周）：北京出台 楼市新政，新房周成交环比上涨》 2025-12-31 《房地产行业重大事项点评：北京楼市再宽松》 2025-12-26 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 板块行情：第 53 周（12 月 29 日-12 月 31 日）申万一级行业指数中，房地产 指数下跌 0.7%，在 31 个一级行业板块中排名第 19。 政策要闻：地方层面：1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring supply chain opportunities from the demand side, particularly in the context of the upcoming CES event, which is expected to showcase a variety of new smart glasses products [3][9]. - The report highlights that 2026 is anticipated to be a year of significant growth for smart glasses, driven by supportive policies and supply upgrades, with a focus on enhancing product features and user experience [9]. Industry Overview - The light industry manufacturing sector comprises 164 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,094.55 billion and a circulating market value of about 934.63 billion [6]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months has been 32.9%, while the relative performance compared to the benchmark has been 5.8% [7]. Key Company Forecasts and Valuations - 康耐特光学 (Kangnait Optical) is projected to have an EPS of 1.18, 1.45, and 1.81 for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with a strong buy rating [4]. - The PE ratios for 康耐特光学 are forecasted to be 41.05, 33.26, and 26.64 for the same years, indicating strong growth potential [4]. Upcoming Events - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is scheduled from January 6 to 9, showcasing over 50 exhibitors in the AI glasses segment, with significant product launches expected from various companies [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints On January 6, 2026, the convertible bond market followed the underlying stocks to rise, with increased valuations. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up, and the median price and weighted average price of convertible bonds both increased. Most industries in the A-share and convertible bond markets rose, with different performance in different sectors [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Main Index Performance - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.35% day - on - day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.40%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.90%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.43%. The Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 1.38%, and the Convertible Bond Index rose 1.32%. In terms of style, mid - cap value was relatively dominant, with mid - cap value rising 2.75% [1][7][8]. 2. Market Fund Performance - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 94.734 billion yuan, a 13.55% increase from the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2.832278 trillion yuan, a 10.32% increase [1][9]. - **Capital Flow**: The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17.668 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 2.45bp to 1.88% [1]. 3. Convertible Bond Valuation - **Valuation Increase**: The 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate was 35.23%, up 0.42pct from the previous day. The overall weighted parity was 104.28 yuan, up 1.52%. The price median was 136.95 yuan, up 1.59% [2][17][21]. - **Premium Rate by Type**: The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 17.18%, down 0.55pct; the premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 87.25%, up 0.24pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.36%, down 0.32pct [2]. 4. Industry Rotation - **A - share Market**: Among the 30 industries, 29 rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were non - ferrous metals (+4.26%), non - banking finance (+3.73%), and basic chemicals (+3.12%), while the only declining industry was communication (-0.77%) [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Among the convertible bond market, 27 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were communication (+4.44%), non - banking finance (+3.62%), and non - ferrous metals (+3.28%), and the only declining industry was environmental protection (-0.28%) [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has successfully completed the first flight of the "Jiutian" drone, marking a significant technological breakthrough in large drone capabilities in China [8]. - The company has won bids for key projects, including the low-orbit broadband phased array terminal, indicating a shift towards application-side satellite logic and a closed-loop system [8]. - The launch of the "Guangzhou Low Altitude Flight Comprehensive Management Service Platform" demonstrates the company's commitment to developing a comprehensive ecosystem for low-altitude operations, integrating various technologies and services [8]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the "14th Five-Year Plan" for military informationization, the third generation of Beidou navigation system upgrades, and emerging fields such as low-altitude, drones, and low-orbit satellites [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 4,920 million in 2024 to 4,387 million in 2025, before increasing to 5,336 million in 2026 and 6,317 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -23.7% in 2024 and a recovery of 21.6% in 2026 [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 53 million in 2024, dropping to -87 million in 2025, and then recovering to 362 million in 2026 and 518 million in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 514.0% in 2026 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.02 in 2024, -0.04 in 2025, and then rise to 0.15 in 2026 and 0.21 in 2027 [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 809 in 2024, -493 in 2025, and then stabilize at 119 in 2026 and 83 in 2027 [3].

Group 1: CFETS Index Overview - The CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index is a nominal basket currency index based on trade shares, using geometric averaging of the RMB against a basket of currencies[2] - The currency basket is adjusted annually based on trade data from two years prior, with the new weights effective from January 1, 2026, based on 2024 trade data[3] Group 2: Weight Adjustments and Trends - The new weights for 2026 align closely with the 2024 trade shares, with the USD weight at 18.31% and the EUR weight at 17.86%, both exceeding their respective trade share benchmarks by 1.07 and 1.69 percentage points[4] - The concentration of the top five currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, KRW, AUD) has declined for four consecutive years, reaching 58.15% in 2026, down from 66.03% in 2020, averaging a decline of 1.31 percentage points per year[4][19] - The weight of developed market currencies has decreased from 76.97% in 2020 to 69.56% in 2026, while emerging market currencies have increased from 23.03% to 30.44%[5][26] Group 3: Currency Weight Changes - The USD weight has dropped from 19.88% in 2022 to 18.31% in 2026, with an average annual reduction of approximately 0.51 percentage points from 2024 to 2026[5][30] - Among emerging market currencies, ASEAN, Middle Eastern, and Russian currencies have the highest weights, collectively accounting for 19.29% of the emerging market currency weight in 2026[6][32] Group 4: Future Implications - The trade share data from 2025 will guide the currency weight adjustments for 2027, indicating a potential continued decline in the concentration of the top five currencies[7] - The influence coefficient of the USD index on the USDCNY midpoint has decreased from 0.337 to 0.331, indicating reduced depreciation pressure on the RMB against the USD[8][47]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2026 年第 1 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要： Let the future tell the truth, and evaluate each one according to his work and accomplishments. —Nikola Tesla 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2026 年 01 月 06 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《开年话躁动——总量"创"辩第 119 期》 2026-01-06 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 57 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-29 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 56 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-15 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 55 期：美联储继续降 息，同时重启扩表——12 月美联储议息会议点评 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for BYD, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][17]. Core Views - BYD's total sales for the year are projected to reach 4.6 million vehicles, with strong performance from the Fangchengbao model and exports [2][7]. - The target price is set at 113.8 CNY for A-shares and 111.2 HKD for H-shares, reflecting a robust growth outlook despite recent challenges [2][7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Total revenue is expected to grow from 777.1 billion CNY in 2024 to 1,070.5 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.5% [3][8]. - **Net Profit**: Projected net profit is anticipated to decline from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 35.2 billion CNY in 2025, before rebounding to 60.0 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a significant recovery [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to decrease from 4.42 CNY in 2024 to 3.86 CNY in 2025, then increase to 6.58 CNY by 2027 [3][8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to range from 22 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 4.8 to 2.6 over the same period [3][8]. Sales Performance - **Sales Breakdown**: In December, BYD sold 134,000 vehicles, with a total of 4.6 million vehicles sold for the year, marking an 8% increase year-on-year [7]. - **Export Growth**: Exports reached 133,000 vehicles in December, representing a 133% increase year-on-year, with a total of 1.05 million vehicles exported for the year [7]. - **Brand Performance**: The Dynasty series sold 188,500 vehicles in 2025, while the Ocean series achieved 222,000 vehicles sold [7]. Market Outlook - **Product Cycle**: A new product cycle is expected to begin in March 2026, with the launch of the upgraded Qin L DM-i model, which is anticipated to enhance market share and brand value [7]. - **Sales Projections**: Future sales are projected to reach 5.27 million vehicles in 2026 and 5.85 million in 2027, with corresponding revenue growth [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业周报（20251229-20260104） "高质量"回归 行业研究 证券Ⅱ 2026 年 01 月 06 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：杜婉桢 邮箱：duwanzhen@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 投行评价体系迭代升级，引导行业向"功能性"与 推荐（维持） 《证券行业周报（20251124-20251130）：券商系期 货公司或在券业整合中重塑行业格局》 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 53 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 41,461.03 | 3.34 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 34,907.12 | 3.50 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.4% | 9.6% | 15.3% | | 相对表现 | 0.5% | -8.9% | -9.7% | -9% 3% 14% 2 ...