行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|红利资产月报（2026 年 1 月） 港口集装箱景气度相对较好，强调交运红利 推荐（维持） 板块配置价值 交通运输 2026 年 01 月 28 日 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 121 | 0 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 康耐特光学（02276.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 配股募资 14 亿港元，强化 XR 业务布局，彰 显成长雄心 事项： 1）公司拟通过配售代理向不少于 6 名承配人配售 2700 万股，配售价格每股 52.00 港元。若悉数配售，预计筹集资金总额约 14.04 亿港元，净额约 14.00 亿 港元。配售完成后总股本预计由 4.80 亿股增至 5.07 亿股。2）根据 AR 圈报 道，字节跳动旗下的 AI 眼镜预计于"春节前后"的时间节点上市，或通过"限 量赠送"替代公开销售。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,061 | 2,347 | 2,835 | 3,380 | | 同比增速(%) | 17.1% | 13.9% | 20.8% | 19.2% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 428 | 564 | 696 | 869 | | 同比增速(%) | 31.0% ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 年度回顾：利润的结构变化 ——12月工业企业利润点评 主要观点 12 月工业企业利润数据：受其他损益收入比下降影响，利润增速回升 12 月，据统计局数据，规模以上工业企业当月利润由 11 月份下降 13.1%转为 增长 5.3%，回升 18.4 个百分点。库存方面，截止至 2025 年 12 月，库存同比 3.9%，前值为 4.6%。分所有制看，12 月，国有控股工业企业利润增速为-51.5%， 私营企业增速为 0.56%，外商及港澳台为 41.4%。 量、价、利润率拆分来看，量价双升。PPI 同比，12 月同比为-1.9%，11 月为 -2.2%。工增 12 月增速为 5.2%，11 月为 4.8%；收入端 12 月增速为-3.21%， 11 月为-0.26%。利润率方面，12 月为 5.57%，去年同期（可比口径）为 5.13%。 利润率拆分来看，12 月毛利率为 16.40%，去年同期为 16.44%；费用率 10.7%， 去年同期为 10.23%；其他损益收入比为 0.14%，去年同期为 0.87%。 全年利润结构回顾：中游制造与大宗商品占比回升 （一） ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by over 5% compared to the benchmark index in the next 3-6 months [19]. Core Insights - The launch of Clawdbot, an AI assistant capable of taking over devices and performing tasks autonomously, has generated significant market interest, achieving over 50,000 stars on GitHub within days of its release [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of low-latency and secure infrastructure support for AI agents like Clawdbot, which is expected to benefit companies involved in cloud computing, AI data centers, computing power services, and content delivery networks [8]. Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 64,957.50 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 58,620.09 billion [5]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months has been 13.7%, 22.6%, and 42.4% respectively, while the relative performance has been 10.3%, 7.0%, and 19.2% [6]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies that provide secure and low-latency infrastructure, including: 1. Cloud computing: Alibaba, NET, Deepin Technology, Kingsoft Cloud, New Idea Network Group, Yuke Data 2. AI Data Centers: Runze Technology, Baoxin Software, Data Port, Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, Yunsai Zhili 3. Computing Power Services: Kexin Data, Hongjing Technology, Dawi Technology, Youfang Technology, Litong Electronics, Zhiwei Intelligent 4. CDN: Wangsu Technology 5. Chips: Haiguang Information, Cambricon, Muxi Co., Tian Shuzhixin, Moer Thread, Longxin Zhongke 6. Large Models: Minimax, Zhipu, iFlytek [8].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 行业表现：今日正股行业指数下降占比过半，共计 23 个行业下跌。A 股市场 中，跌幅前三位行业为煤炭（-2.27%）、农林牧渔（-1.95%）、钢铁（-1.34%）； 涨幅前三位行业为电子（+2.27%）、通信（+2.15%）、国防军工（+1.65%）。 转债市场共计 17 个行业上涨，涨幅前三位行业为通信（+3.75%）、国防军工 （+2.65%）、机械设备（+1.63%）；跌幅前三位行业为煤炭（-1.04%）、有色金 属（-0.90%）、纺织服饰（-0.77%）。 (1) 收盘价：大周期环比-0.20%、制造环比+0.88%、科技环比+1.97%、大消费 环比-0.27%、大金融环比+0.02%。 (2) 转股溢价率：大周期环比+0.59pct、制造环比+0.3pct、科技环比-0.13pct、 大消费环比+0.88pct、大金融环比+0.071pct。 转债市场日度跟踪 20260127 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债缩量上涨，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.15%、上证综指环比上涨 0.18%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.09%、创业板指环比上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate bond market has gone through stages of risk accumulation, concentrated outbreak, and current orderly resolution and yield gaming. The recent Vanke bond extension event has led to significant fluctuations in the real - estate sector's valuation, prompting a re - examination of the industry's credit boundaries and pricing logic. The report backtracks the adjustment and repair patterns of the real - estate bond sector, explores potential stabilization signals in the current market adjustment, and outlines investment strategies [2][12]. - Currently, the bottom of credit expectations has been initially established, and the easing of pessimistic sentiment in the bond market provides conditions for the valuation repair of real - estate bonds. However, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds in the short term is low, and the spreads of different issuers may diverge, with high - quality issuers having stronger valuation repair momentum [5][43]. - The investment strategy focuses on 1 - 2 - year central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds to capitalize on valuation repair opportunities [6][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Past: Review of the Adjustment Characteristics of the Real - Estate Bond Sector after Public Opinion Shocks - **Stage One (2020)**: Industry risks gradually accumulated, with a few real - estate enterprises defaulting. The excess spread of real - estate bonds did not widen significantly, and the industry's credit risk continued to build up. The spill - over effect of the Yongmei default on real - estate bonds was not immediately apparent [3][13]. - **Stage Two (2021 - 2023)**: The number of defaulting real - estate enterprises increased significantly, and at the same time, policies to stabilize the real - estate market were intensively introduced. The excess spread of AA - rated real - estate bonds fluctuated widely at high levels, with the widening and narrowing cycles often around 5 months [3][14]. - **Stage Three (Since 2024)**: The industry's credit risk is being cleared in an orderly manner, with occasional local risks. Real - estate bonds with high coupon rates are attractive, becoming a target for institutions to seek excess returns in an "asset shortage" environment. The excess spread of real - estate bonds significantly narrowed during the alpha market of spread compression from April to August in 2024 and 2025, but then the credit spread widened [3][16]. 3.2 Current: Significant Adjustment of the Real - Estate Sector's Valuation since Vanke Announced the Proposed Extension 3.2.1 Weak Trading Sentiment and Significant Valuation Increases of Multiple Issuers in the Sector - Since Vanke announced the proposed extension of its bond, the trading prices of many real - estate enterprise bonds have significantly deviated from their valuations, and the valuation yields of issuers have generally increased. Some issuers, including central enterprises, local state - owned enterprises, mixed - ownership enterprises, and private enterprises, have been particularly affected. There is a risk of further increases in valuation yields [4][17][18]. 3.2.2 Signals of Stabilization in the Adjustment: Trading Sentiment, Issuance Situation, and Negative Public Opinion - **Trading sentiment**: It is becoming more moderate, with the trading deviation of real - estate bonds narrowing, and the proportion of TKN transactions stabilizing or rising, showing an initial trend [20][21]. - **Issuance situation**: The primary - market issuance of real - estate bonds has recovered, with the subscription multiple increasing, especially in the recent week [24]. - **Negative public opinion**: The market has become more "insensitive" to negative information. The Vanke event has fully fermented, and the risk of further transmission has narrowed [31]. 3.3 Outlook: Offensive Allocation Strategy after the Adjustment Stabilizes 3.3.1 Conditions for the Offensive Window: Comprehensive Judgment Based on Policies, Credit Risk Expectations, and Bond - Market Sentiment - **Policy aspect**: In the short term, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds is low, but targeted relief policies for high - risk issuers can be expected. If favorable policies are introduced, the repair process of real - estate bonds may accelerate [5][35][43]. - **Credit risk expectation aspect**: The market's pessimistic sentiment towards the real - estate industry's credit risk has reached the bottom. The debt disposal process of Vanke is an important factor affecting market sentiment. With the confirmation of Vanke's disposal plan, the short - term credit expectation bottom of real - estate bonds may be established [37]. - **Bond - market sentiment aspect**: When the bond - market sentiment is good and institutions have a high demand for returns, the spread repair momentum of real - estate bonds is stronger; otherwise, there is greater pressure for spread widening [39]. 3.3.2 Investment Strategy: Focus on 1 - 2 - Year Central and Local State - Owned Enterprise Real - Estate Bonds to Capitalize on Valuation Repair - The core of the current strategy is to moderately extend from the previously conservative bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year to 1 - 2 - year medium - to high - grade central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds, which can provide more attractive coupon yields with relatively controllable risks [44]. - **Central enterprises**: They have strong shareholder backgrounds, sound finances, and are mainly located in core cities. Representative issuers include Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. and China Resources Land Limited. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 2.10% to 2.70%, and the average excess spread ranges from 35 to 85 BP [6][45]. - **Local state - owned enterprises**: They are located in regions with good economic development, have strong shareholder backgrounds, and perform well in terms of profitability and solvency. Representative issuers include Shanghai Lujiazui (Group) Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Urban Construction and Development Co., Ltd. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 1.95% to 2.0%, and the average excess spread ranges from 15 to 20 BP [6][45].

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创农业 12 月白羽肉禽月报 毛鸡价格攀升后回落，鸡苗价格高位收尾 ❑ 毛鸡&鸡苗：毛鸡价格攀升后回落，鸡苗价格高位收尾。 父母代产能方面，2025 年 12 月协会样本点在产父母代存栏 2130 万套，同比- 2.7%，环比-2.8%；后备父母代种鸡平均存栏量 1573 万套，同比-5.1%，环比 +4.0%。12 月父母代鸡苗价格为 43.80 元/套，最新报价 25 年第 53 周数据为 48.12 元/套。 综合来看，鸡苗端环比微跌，毛鸡养殖端环比上涨。12 月毛鸡养殖亏损 0.26 元/羽，环比盈利大幅上涨；孵化场盈利 0.77 元/羽，环比盈利小幅扩张。 行业研究 邮箱：zhanghaoyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070009 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 101 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 13,312.46 | 1.31 | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 伊朗地缘"灰犀牛"：哪些价格受影响？ 主要观点 伊朗骚乱似有平息，但"灰犀牛"的地缘风险仍存。本篇报告主要概述伊朗的 基本经济国情，侧重自然资源、优势产业和出口结构。 ❖ 一、伊朗近期发生了什么？ 经济困境引发各地抗议，逐步升级为伊朗全国大规模骚乱，伤亡人数是过往二 十余年动荡之最。去年 11 月开始，伊朗多地因物价上涨、货币贬值等问题发 生抗议，随后扩散至全境并出现暴力骚乱和大规模伤亡，期间全面断网 8 天。 1 月下旬局势趋于缓和。1 月 21 日伊朗官方称近期骚乱事件导致 3117 人死亡。 地缘冲突风险仍存。1 月 22 日特朗普表示美国"大型舰队"正驶向伊朗周边。 从经济地理位置看，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡具有强大控制力。霍尔木兹海峡是全 球能源贸易的咽喉要道，流经该海峡的石油和其他液体燃料贸易量约占全球消 费量约 20%，占全球海运贸易量约 27%，流经该海峡的 LNG 贸易量约占全球 LNG 贸易量的 20%，约占全球天然气贸易量的 9%。 ❖ 二、伊朗的主要自然资源 1、石油：全球探明原油储量第三，目前日产量约 320 万桶/日，出口量约 180 万桶/日。伊朗 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创农业 12 月白羽肉禽月报 毛鸡价格攀升后回落，鸡苗价格高位收尾 ❑ 毛鸡&鸡苗：毛鸡价格攀升后回落，鸡苗价格高位收尾。 父母代产能方面，2025 年 12 月协会样本点在产父母代存栏 2130 万套，同比- 2.7%，环比-2.8%；后备父母代种鸡平均存栏量 1573 万套，同比-5.1%，环比 +4.0%。12 月父母代鸡苗价格为 43.80 元/套，最新报价 25 年第 53 周数据为 48.12 元/套。 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 综合来看，鸡苗端环比微跌，毛鸡养殖端环比上涨。12 月毛鸡养殖亏损 0.26 元/羽，环比盈利大幅上涨；孵化场盈利 0.77 元/羽，环比盈利小幅扩张。 行业研究 农林牧渔 2026 年 01 月 27 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张皓月 邮箱：zhanghaoyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070009 证券分析师：陈鹏 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只 ...

❑ 2026 年 1 月 5 日，NVIDIA 宣布，NVIDIA BlueField-4 数据处理器（NVIDIA BlueField 全栈平台的一部分）为 NVIDIA 推理上下文内存存储平台提供支持， 该平台是面向下一代 AI 前沿的新一代 AI 原生存储基础设施。1 月 20 日，在 2026 阿里云 PolarDB 开发者大会上，阿里云旗下云原生数据库 PolarDB 正式 发布 AI 数据湖库（Lakebase）等系列全新产品能力。 评论： ❑ 我们认为：大模型记忆和硬件，将成为模型发展核心叙事，助力 AIDB 与向量 数据库规模化进程： 证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业重大事项点评 AI infra：算力系统化升级 DB for AI 进程加速 事项： 行业研究 计算机 2026 年 01 月 27 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周楚薇 邮箱：zhouchuwei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数( ...