行业研究 保险Ⅲ 2026 年 01 月 27 日 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 保险股公募持仓跃升至 2.29% | 华创证券研究所 | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：陈海椰 | 证券分析师：徐康 | | 邮箱：chenhaiye@hcyjs.com | 电话：021-20572556 | | 执业编号：S0360525070004 | 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com | | | 执业编号：S0360518060005 | 数据口径：剔除指数型基金持仓数据，基金重仓持股口径。 行业整体：非银金融持仓环比+1.19pct，减持多元金融，增持保险、证券。2025Q4 非银 金融持仓占比 3.29%（环比+1.19pct），其中保险行业持仓合计 2.29%（环比+1.19pct），证 券行业持仓合计 0.84%（环比+0.16pct），多元金融行业持仓占比 0.17%（环比-0.16pct）。 7.50% 5.55% 4.12% 2.56% 0.25%0.54%0.44%0.27%0.56%1.16%0.84%0.75%1.39%1.10% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992.HK) with a target price of HKD 319.85 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has conducted two share buybacks, demonstrating confidence in its long-term growth logic. The buybacks occurred on January 19 and 21, 2026, costing HKD 251 million and HKD 96 million, respectively, with average prices of HKD 179.60 and HKD 192.98 per share [2]. - The financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach HKD 13,038 million in 2024, growing to HKD 64,823 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.9% in 2024 and 23.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 3,125 million in 2024 to HKD 21,734 million in 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 188.8% in 2024 and 24.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - The report highlights the company's strong IP platform and diversified product matrix, which are expected to continue meeting the demand in the trendy toy market. The ability to sustain and innovate across various IPs is emphasized as a key strength [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 13,038 - 2025: 37,195 - 2026: 52,533 - 2027: 64,823 [2][8] - Net profit (in million HKD) projections are: - 2024: 3,125 - 2025: 12,235 - 2026: 17,475 - 2027: 21,734 [2][8] - Earnings per share (in HKD) are expected to grow from 2.33 in 2024 to 16.20 in 2027 [2][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 84 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [2][8].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20260126 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债回调，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 1.19%、上证综指环比下降 0.09%、深证成 指环比下降 0.85%、创业板指环比下降 0.91%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.57%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 1.24%。 市场风格：中盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.06%、大盘价值环比上涨 0.86%、中盘成长环比上涨 0.48%、中盘价值环比上涨 1.33%、小盘成长环比 下降 2.09%、小盘价值环比下降 0.15%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 927.91 亿元，环比 减少 3.02%；万得全 A 总成交额为 32806.44 亿元，环比增长 5.21%；沪深两 市主力净流出 757.10 亿元，十年国债收益率环比降低 0.56bp 至 1.82%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 143.04 元，环比昨日下降 1.07%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 205.54 元，环比 下降 0.59%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 主动权益基金新发规模创2022年以来新高 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2026年1月26日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 1）资金供给端收缩：偏股型公募新发规模上升至历史高位，其中主动权益基金新发规模达217.1亿份创2022年以来 新高、杠杆资金&股票型ETF净流入规模大幅下滑至历史低位、回购金额持续收缩； 2）资金需求端收缩：股权融资规模收缩至历史中低位、产业资本净减持小幅收缩但仍处历史高位。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，本周热度 分位（下同）上行行业主要为：建筑+10pc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in ticket bookings for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have established a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support loans for small and micro enterprises, which is expected to leverage nearly 900 billion yuan in private investment [5]. - The report suggests that the pre-holiday booking window for the Spring Festival has opened, with positive year-on-year performance in flight bookings, particularly benefiting destinations like Hainan due to increased tourist flow [5]. - The report recommends monitoring changes in booking data for transportation and hotels leading up to the Spring Festival, as well as investment opportunities arising from policies promoting service consumption [5]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion yuan [2]. - The industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.20%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a 1.80% increase, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.62% [8][10]. - The report notes that the hotel and restaurant sectors showed positive performance, with hotel stocks rising by 3.69% and restaurant stocks by 3.31% during the reporting period [18]. Related Companies - Recommended companies include hotels with balanced supply and demand such as Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and Huazhu Group, as well as human resources services like Core International and Beijing Renli [5]. - The report also highlights companies in the duty-free sector benefiting from new policies, such as China Duty Free Group and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [5]. - Other notable mentions include online and offline integrated platforms like Meituan and Alibaba, and innovative tourism companies like Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the insurance sector, expecting a robust growth in premiums for listed insurance companies in 2025 [1][4]. Core Insights - The insurance index decreased by 4.04%, underperforming the market by 3.42 percentage points, with mixed performances among individual stocks [1]. - The China Insurance Association indicated that the current standard interest rate for ordinary life insurance is 1.89% [2]. - China Taiping announced a significant profit increase for 2025, projecting a rise of approximately 215% to 225% compared to 2024, driven by improved net investment income and favorable tax policies [2]. - The health insurance sector has seen an average compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the past decade [2]. - Agricultural insurance premiums in China have surpassed 155 billion yuan, with nearly 80% coming from government subsidies [2]. Summary by Sections Premium Growth Projections - In 2025, New China Life is expected to achieve premiums of 195.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with a "front-high and back-stable" growth pattern anticipated [3]. - China Pacific Insurance is projected to reach total premiums of 461.7 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with life insurance being the main growth driver [3]. - ZhongAn Online is expected to achieve premiums of 35.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [3]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates steady premium growth for listed insurance companies in 2025, primarily driven by life insurance and the expansion of distribution channels [4]. - The property insurance sector is expected to show varied performance, influenced by adjustments in non-auto insurance business [4]. Investment Recommendations - The insurance sector has experienced two weeks of adjustments, mainly due to a slowdown in growth and high valuations [4]. - The report suggests that the performance of listed insurance companies in 2025 will be primarily driven by investment returns, with a favorable outlook for the first half of 2026 [4]. - The report highlights the potential for price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios to recover, with estimates for major life insurance companies indicating potential increases above 1x [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides PEV valuations for major life insurance companies, with China Life at 0.87x, New China Life at 0.86x, and Ping An at 0.77x [4]. - For property insurance, the report lists valuations with China Property at 1.15x and PICC at 1.26x [5].

Investment Rating - The insurance industry is rated as "Recommended" for the next 3-6 months, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% [21]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to see steady premium growth in 2025, with significant contributions from bancassurance channels and the expansion of distribution networks [4][3]. - The report highlights that the average premium growth for listed insurance companies in 2025 is projected to be robust, driven by factors such as improved investment returns and favorable tax policies [2][4]. - The report notes that the health insurance sector has experienced an average compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the past decade, indicating strong market potential [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index decreased by 4.04% this week, underperforming the broader market by 3.42 percentage points [1]. - Individual stock performances varied, with notable declines in companies like China Life (-3.77%) and Ping An (-3.66%), while China Taiping showed a significant increase of 8.78% [1]. Company-Specific Insights - China Taiping is expected to see a substantial increase in its annual profit, projected to grow by approximately 215% to 843.2 million HKD in 2025, driven by enhanced net investment income and favorable tax policies [2]. - New China Life's premiums are expected to reach 195.9 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [3]. - China Pacific Insurance's total premiums are projected to be 461.7 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 4.4%, supported by an 8.1% increase in life insurance premiums [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the insurance sector has undergone two weeks of adjustments, primarily due to a slowdown in the "New Year" growth and high valuations [4]. - For the medium term, the first half of 2026 is expected to have relatively low base pressure, with an active equity market and a thriving liability side likely to drive performance beyond expectations [4]. - The report indicates that the current stabilization trend in long-term interest rates significantly alleviates pressure on interest spreads, suggesting potential for price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios to recover towards 1x [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides PEV valuations for various companies, indicating that China Life is at 0.87x, New China Life at 0.86x, and Ping An at 0.77x [4]. - For property and casualty insurance, the report lists China Re at 0.60x and China Pacific at 1.09x, with a recommendation order favoring China Taiping and China Ping An [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [41][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in ticket bookings for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have established a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support loans for small and micro enterprises, which is expected to leverage nearly 900 billion yuan in private investment [5]. - The report suggests that the pre-holiday booking window for the Spring Festival has opened, with positive year-on-year performance in flight bookings, particularly benefiting destinations like Hainan due to increased tourist flow [5]. - The report recommends monitoring changes in booking data for transportation and hotels leading up to the Spring Festival, as well as the impact of service consumption-related policies on investment opportunities [5]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion yuan [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -7.7%, while the relative performance is -6.9% [3]. Weekly Performance - The consumer services industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.20%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a rise of 1.80%, and the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.62% [8]. - Notable performers in the sector included SF City with a 34.27% increase and Jiuhua Tourism with a 10.89% increase [5]. Important Announcements - Beijing Human Resources reported a planned reduction of 1.698 million shares by a shareholder, amounting to 313 million yuan, reducing their stake to 5.8% [31]. - Guilin Tourism expects to turn a profit in 2025 with a projected net profit of 11 million yuan, driven by a 10% increase in tourist numbers [31]. - Jinling Hotel anticipates a net profit of 55 million to 63.5 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.37% to 90.93% [31].

证 券 研 究 报 告 黄酒行业调研反馈报告 推荐（维持） 三问三答，黄酒复兴行至何方？ 行业研究 其他酒 2026 年 01 月 26 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 联系人：王培培 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 10 | 0.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 752.55 | 0.06 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 678.81 | 0.07 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 4.1 ...

Policy Implementation - Multiple fiscal and financial policies have been implemented to stimulate domestic demand, including an extension of the equipment update interest subsidy policy until the end of 2026, supporting various sectors with a total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan[2] - The first batch of 936 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been allocated to support approximately 4,500 projects in sectors such as industrial, energy, education, and healthcare, driving total investment over 460 billion yuan[16] Consumer and Business Support - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended to the end of 2026, with a 1% annual subsidy rate and the inclusion of credit card installment payments[13] - The interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises is set at 1.5 percentage points, targeting key industries such as new energy vehicles and medical equipment[3] Economic Strategy - The government emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that the fiscal deficit and total debt levels remain at necessary levels, with a focus on increasing overall expenditure in 2026[12] - A strategic plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 is under development, aiming to adapt to demand upgrades and promote high-quality economic growth[4] Risk Management - The government is committed to balancing risk prevention and development, with measures to reduce local government debt burdens and enhance fiscal sustainability[13] - There is a risk of policy updates not being timely, which could affect the effectiveness of these measures[4]