证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 53 周） 新房成交环比高增，韶关对农村转移人口购 推荐（维持） 房给予契税补贴 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 01 月 07 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 相关研究报告 《商业地产行业跟踪报告：行业分化，强者恒强》 2025-12-31 《房地产行业周报（2025 年第 52 周）：北京出台 楼市新政，新房周成交环比上涨》 2025-12-31 《房地产行业重大事项点评：北京楼市再宽松》 2025-12-26 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 板块行情：第 53 周（12 月 29 日-12 月 31 日）申万一级行业指数中，房地产 指数下跌 0.7%，在 31 个一级行业板块中排名第 19。 政策要闻：地方层面：1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring supply chain opportunities from the demand side, particularly in the context of the upcoming CES event, which is expected to showcase a variety of new smart glasses products [3][9]. - The report highlights that 2026 is anticipated to be a year of significant growth for smart glasses, driven by supportive policies and supply upgrades, with a focus on enhancing product features and user experience [9]. Industry Overview - The light industry manufacturing sector comprises 164 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,094.55 billion and a circulating market value of about 934.63 billion [6]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months has been 32.9%, while the relative performance compared to the benchmark has been 5.8% [7]. Key Company Forecasts and Valuations - 康耐特光学 (Kangnait Optical) is projected to have an EPS of 1.18, 1.45, and 1.81 for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with a strong buy rating [4]. - The PE ratios for 康耐特光学 are forecasted to be 41.05, 33.26, and 26.64 for the same years, indicating strong growth potential [4]. Upcoming Events - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is scheduled from January 6 to 9, showcasing over 50 exhibitors in the AI glasses segment, with significant product launches expected from various companies [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints On January 6, 2026, the convertible bond market followed the underlying stocks to rise, with increased valuations. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up, and the median price and weighted average price of convertible bonds both increased. Most industries in the A-share and convertible bond markets rose, with different performance in different sectors [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Main Index Performance - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.35% day - on - day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.40%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.90%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.43%. The Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 1.38%, and the Convertible Bond Index rose 1.32%. In terms of style, mid - cap value was relatively dominant, with mid - cap value rising 2.75% [1][7][8]. 2. Market Fund Performance - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 94.734 billion yuan, a 13.55% increase from the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2.832278 trillion yuan, a 10.32% increase [1][9]. - **Capital Flow**: The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17.668 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 2.45bp to 1.88% [1]. 3. Convertible Bond Valuation - **Valuation Increase**: The 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate was 35.23%, up 0.42pct from the previous day. The overall weighted parity was 104.28 yuan, up 1.52%. The price median was 136.95 yuan, up 1.59% [2][17][21]. - **Premium Rate by Type**: The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 17.18%, down 0.55pct; the premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 87.25%, up 0.24pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.36%, down 0.32pct [2]. 4. Industry Rotation - **A - share Market**: Among the 30 industries, 29 rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were non - ferrous metals (+4.26%), non - banking finance (+3.73%), and basic chemicals (+3.12%), while the only declining industry was communication (-0.77%) [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Among the convertible bond market, 27 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were communication (+4.44%), non - banking finance (+3.62%), and non - ferrous metals (+3.28%), and the only declining industry was environmental protection (-0.28%) [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has successfully completed the first flight of the "Jiutian" drone, marking a significant technological breakthrough in large drone capabilities in China [8]. - The company has won bids for key projects, including the low-orbit broadband phased array terminal, indicating a shift towards application-side satellite logic and a closed-loop system [8]. - The launch of the "Guangzhou Low Altitude Flight Comprehensive Management Service Platform" demonstrates the company's commitment to developing a comprehensive ecosystem for low-altitude operations, integrating various technologies and services [8]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the "14th Five-Year Plan" for military informationization, the third generation of Beidou navigation system upgrades, and emerging fields such as low-altitude, drones, and low-orbit satellites [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 4,920 million in 2024 to 4,387 million in 2025, before increasing to 5,336 million in 2026 and 6,317 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -23.7% in 2024 and a recovery of 21.6% in 2026 [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 53 million in 2024, dropping to -87 million in 2025, and then recovering to 362 million in 2026 and 518 million in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 514.0% in 2026 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.02 in 2024, -0.04 in 2025, and then rise to 0.15 in 2026 and 0.21 in 2027 [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 809 in 2024, -493 in 2025, and then stabilize at 119 in 2026 and 83 in 2027 [3].

Group 1: CFETS Index Overview - The CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index is a nominal basket currency index based on trade shares, using geometric averaging of the RMB against a basket of currencies[2] - The currency basket is adjusted annually based on trade data from two years prior, with the new weights effective from January 1, 2026, based on 2024 trade data[3] Group 2: Weight Adjustments and Trends - The new weights for 2026 align closely with the 2024 trade shares, with the USD weight at 18.31% and the EUR weight at 17.86%, both exceeding their respective trade share benchmarks by 1.07 and 1.69 percentage points[4] - The concentration of the top five currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, KRW, AUD) has declined for four consecutive years, reaching 58.15% in 2026, down from 66.03% in 2020, averaging a decline of 1.31 percentage points per year[4][19] - The weight of developed market currencies has decreased from 76.97% in 2020 to 69.56% in 2026, while emerging market currencies have increased from 23.03% to 30.44%[5][26] Group 3: Currency Weight Changes - The USD weight has dropped from 19.88% in 2022 to 18.31% in 2026, with an average annual reduction of approximately 0.51 percentage points from 2024 to 2026[5][30] - Among emerging market currencies, ASEAN, Middle Eastern, and Russian currencies have the highest weights, collectively accounting for 19.29% of the emerging market currency weight in 2026[6][32] Group 4: Future Implications - The trade share data from 2025 will guide the currency weight adjustments for 2027, indicating a potential continued decline in the concentration of the top five currencies[7] - The influence coefficient of the USD index on the USDCNY midpoint has decreased from 0.337 to 0.331, indicating reduced depreciation pressure on the RMB against the USD[8][47]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2026 年第 1 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要： Let the future tell the truth, and evaluate each one according to his work and accomplishments. —Nikola Tesla 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2026 年 01 月 06 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《开年话躁动——总量"创"辩第 119 期》 2026-01-06 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 57 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-29 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 56 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-15 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 55 期：美联储继续降 息，同时重启扩表——12 月美联储议息会议点评 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for BYD, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][17]. Core Views - BYD's total sales for the year are projected to reach 4.6 million vehicles, with strong performance from the Fangchengbao model and exports [2][7]. - The target price is set at 113.8 CNY for A-shares and 111.2 HKD for H-shares, reflecting a robust growth outlook despite recent challenges [2][7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Total revenue is expected to grow from 777.1 billion CNY in 2024 to 1,070.5 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.5% [3][8]. - **Net Profit**: Projected net profit is anticipated to decline from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 35.2 billion CNY in 2025, before rebounding to 60.0 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a significant recovery [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to decrease from 4.42 CNY in 2024 to 3.86 CNY in 2025, then increase to 6.58 CNY by 2027 [3][8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to range from 22 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 4.8 to 2.6 over the same period [3][8]. Sales Performance - **Sales Breakdown**: In December, BYD sold 134,000 vehicles, with a total of 4.6 million vehicles sold for the year, marking an 8% increase year-on-year [7]. - **Export Growth**: Exports reached 133,000 vehicles in December, representing a 133% increase year-on-year, with a total of 1.05 million vehicles exported for the year [7]. - **Brand Performance**: The Dynasty series sold 188,500 vehicles in 2025, while the Ocean series achieved 222,000 vehicles sold [7]. Market Outlook - **Product Cycle**: A new product cycle is expected to begin in March 2026, with the launch of the upgraded Qin L DM-i model, which is anticipated to enhance market share and brand value [7]. - **Sales Projections**: Future sales are projected to reach 5.27 million vehicles in 2026 and 5.85 million in 2027, with corresponding revenue growth [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业周报（20251229-20260104） "高质量"回归 行业研究 证券Ⅱ 2026 年 01 月 06 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：杜婉桢 邮箱：duwanzhen@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 投行评价体系迭代升级，引导行业向"功能性"与 推荐（维持） 《证券行业周报（20251124-20251130）：券商系期 货公司或在券业整合中重塑行业格局》 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 53 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 41,461.03 | 3.34 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 34,907.12 | 3.50 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.4% | 9.6% | 15.3% | | 相对表现 | 0.5% | -8.9% | -9.7% | -9% 3% 14% 2 ...

Strategy - The year 2025 marks a watershed moment for Chinese and American technology stocks, with Chinese tech stocks showing a significant increase compared to their American counterparts, driven by "hard technology" and domestic substitution [12][15][19] - The overall performance of Chinese tech stocks includes a 49.6% increase in the ChiNext Index, a 46.3% increase in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index, and a 23.5% increase in the Hang Seng Tech Index, outperforming the Nasdaq's 20.4% increase [12][15] - The market is increasingly cautious about the high concentration of profits among a few tech giants in the US, as evidenced by the performance of the "MAG 7" stocks [19][24] Electronics - The scaling law remains effective, with the introduction of multimodal and agent models expected to accelerate AI computing demand [35] - The PCB industry is anticipated to maintain high growth due to its heavy asset nature, with capacity release and product structure optimization driving non-linear performance improvements [35] - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jingwang Electronics, Shenzhen South Circuit, Dongshan Precision, Huitian Technology, and others [35] Computer - The inference and agent ecosystem is experiencing a comprehensive explosion, with global models gradually entering a commercial closed loop [36] - Significant events include OpenAI's partnership with Disney for the Sora model and the planned IPO of Zhipu AI, which aims to be the first publicly listed company focused on general artificial intelligence [36][37] - The release of OpenAI's GPT-5.2-Codex marks a new benchmark for AI programming capabilities [36] Media - The capitalization progress of the AI industry chain is ongoing, which is expected to boost sentiment in the internet and AI sectors [37] - Notable acquisitions include Meta's purchase of the AI agent application Manus, which has achieved an ARR of over $100 million [37] - The valuation of global AI applications is expanding, with OpenAI's ARR projected to reach $20 billion and a valuation exceeding $500 billion [37] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, with companies that have developed product capabilities in key components or specific solutions likely to benefit [38] - The market's aesthetic preferences prioritize incremental components and Tesla-related supply chains, indicating potential investment opportunities [38] - Recommended stocks include Xinjie Electric, Huichuan Technology, and Hengli Hydraulic [38] Automotive - The 2026 automotive subsidy policy is expected to lead to an early rebound in the automotive sector, with retail sales projected to grow by 2% and electric vehicle sales by 11% [39] - The shift from fixed subsidies to percentage-based subsidies is anticipated to favor higher-priced vehicles [39] - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile and BYD, with a focus on the intelligent driving sector [39]

Macro Insights - The current macro liquidity phase is expected to decline, with government bond growth and loan growth likely to marginally decrease, leading to a continuous decline in M2 year-on-year in Q1[1] - The recent slight increase in market volatility suggests that the most accommodative macro liquidity period is passing, which historically impacts asset valuations negatively[1] - The current economic cycle shows that the midstream sector is the most stable, as its demand is less sensitive to domestic liquidity conditions, potentially benefiting from supply-side contractions[1] Asset Allocation - International experience indicates that current 10-year bond yields are still below reasonable international levels, while the stock-bond ratio suggests stocks have a comparative advantage in allocation[1] - If liquidity contraction impacts "expensive" assets, bonds may be considered "expensive" as long as the economic cycle continues to improve marginally[1] - The strategic view remains to favor stocks over bonds, maintaining a cautious stance on bonds[2] Market Strategy - The spring market rally is primarily driven by liquidity, with expectations of limited pullbacks due to macro liquidity stability[3] - Key focus areas include real estate, exchange rates, local government meetings, local bond issuance, and U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[3] - Recommended sectors for investment include non-bank financials, technology manufacturing, and cyclical sectors like coal and non-ferrous metals[3] Fixed Income Strategy - The expected net financing of government bonds in Q1 is around CNY 3.6 trillion, with January and March being peak months[4] - The demand for bonds is anticipated to be better than Q1 2025 due to the "opening red" effect from deposits and insurance premiums[4] - The bond market is expected to show a downward trend in yields, with a focus on ticket interest strategies remaining favorable[4]