Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [19]. Core Insights - The insurance sector index decreased by 3.64% this week, underperforming the broader market by 3.07 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with notable declines in major companies like Ping An and China Pacific [1][3]. - China Pacific Life Insurance increased its stake in Shanghai Airport to 5% through block trading, marking the first significant acquisition by insurance capital in 2026. This trend reflects a growing interest in high-dividend assets amid a low-interest-rate environment [2][3]. - The report highlights a shift towards long-term investments by insurance capital, focusing on stable cash flow and high dividend yield assets, particularly in sectors like banking and public utilities [3]. - Regulatory support for long-term capital market participation is emphasized, with expectations of continued downward pressure on long-term interest rates, prompting insurance companies to seek dividend assets as a strategic choice [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index fell by 3.64%, with significant declines in major stocks such as Ping An (-3.87%) and China Pacific (-4.97%). The 10-year government bond yield is at 1.84%, down 4 basis points from the previous week [1]. Recent Developments - China Pacific Life's acquisition of 72.424 million shares of Shanghai Airport, increasing its total holdings to approximately 124 million shares, represents a strategic move in the current market [2]. - The establishment of the Honghu Zhiyuan Fund, focusing on well-governed, high-dividend large-cap stocks, indicates a trend towards stable investment strategies among insurance companies [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued stocks like China Pacific, which shows strong operational stability and recovery potential in both A and H shares. It also notes that Ping An's performance is expected to remain resilient despite market pressures [3][8]. - Valuation metrics indicate that major players like New China Life and China Life are trading at PEV multiples of 0.92x and 0.91x, respectively, while Ping An is at 0.80x, suggesting potential for upside [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 14.00 yuan [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase driven by new product launches, achieving a revenue of 950 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 26.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 111 million yuan, up 59.1% year-on-year [2][5]. - In Q4 2025, the company generated a revenue of 300 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, although the net profit decreased by 9.8% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product range and enhancing its brand presence in the domestic market, which is expected to drive revenue growth in the future [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 950 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 111 million yuan, with a growth rate of 59.0% [5][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.34 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35 times [5][10]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 1,077 million yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 24.7% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][13]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a net profit growth of no less than 30% for 2025, driven by increased sales of high-refractive and multifunctional lenses, scale effects, automation improvements, and optimized financial structure [1]. - The company is well-positioned in the smart glasses market, with ongoing collaborations with major clients and positive feedback from end-users on delivered products [7]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will reach 564 million HKD in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 31.7% [3][8]. Financial Performance - Total revenue is expected to grow from 2,061 million HKD in 2024 to 2,347 million HKD in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 13.9% [3]. - The company's net profit is projected to increase from 428 million HKD in 2024 to 564 million HKD in 2025, with a net profit margin improvement to 24% [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.89 HKD in 2024 to 1.18 HKD in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its global production capacity, with plans in Japan and Thailand, while steadily expanding its domestic distribution channels [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on the smart glasses segment, which is expected to become a significant growth driver alongside its traditional lens manufacturing business [7]. - The target price for the company's stock has been raised to 69.36 HKD, reflecting a favorable valuation based on projected earnings [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The human-shaped robot's ability to run smoothly represents a significant technological leap from mere functionality to human-like capabilities, indicating a potential shift towards practical applications in complex environments [9][20] - The competition in the humanoid robot industry has evolved into a multi-dimensional strategic game, with different focuses across the supply chain, emphasizing the need for companies to integrate technology, establish standards, and meet real industry demands [22][30] - The future of humanoid robots hinges on overcoming five critical conditions: technological maturity, cost control, clear market positioning, infrastructure development, and societal acceptance [30][31] Summary by Sections Section 1: The Impact of Robot Running Demonstrations - The recent running demonstrations by Tesla's Optimus and Figure AI have generated significant global interest, suggesting a potential breakthrough in the commercialization of humanoid robots [5][6] - These demonstrations challenge the notion that advanced robotics can only exist in controlled environments, indicating a shift towards practical, scalable applications [31] Section 2: Technical Breakdown of Running Capabilities - Achieving running capabilities involves overcoming substantial technical challenges, including dynamic balance, rapid response times, and energy efficiency [10][19] - The transition from walking to running signifies a fundamental change in robotic capabilities, moving from static to dynamic balance, which is essential for operating in unpredictable environments [12][20] Section 3: Business Logic Behind the Demonstrations - The timing of these demonstrations reflects a strategic move by industry leaders to signal their technological advancements and readiness for market integration [32] - Both Tesla and Figure AI are pursuing different paths: Tesla aims for a universal platform while Figure AI focuses on specific industrial applications, highlighting the diverse strategies within the industry [26][30] Section 4: Industry Chain Dynamics - The competition among suppliers, manufacturers, and application developers is intensifying, with each segment vying for control over standards and market share [22][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a robust ecosystem that supports the development and deployment of humanoid robots in real-world applications [30] Section 5: Future Outlook - The next few years are critical for validating the feasibility of humanoid robots, with key indicators including commercial orders, supply chain formation, and cost reduction trends [31] - The industry is at a pivotal moment, transitioning from experimental demonstrations to practical implementations that can deliver economic value [31]

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2026年1月17日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第159期 隐形正畸行业近况更新 本周专题联系人：李婵娟 张良龙 华创医药团队： | 首席分析师 | 郑辰 | | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联席首席分析师 | | 刘浩 | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长 | | 李婵娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长 | | 高初蕾 | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 | 王宏雨 | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 | 朱珂琛 | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukechen@hc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [61]. Core Insights - The domestic passenger load factor for listed airlines continues to improve, with Spring Airlines leading at 92.2% in December, and Air China showing the highest year-on-year increase [1]. - The report highlights a structural improvement in demand for the aviation industry, with a notable recovery in cross-border travel demand outpacing domestic demand [9]. - The report emphasizes the high elasticity of prices under high load factors, indicating potential for price increases as the industry recovers [9]. Summary by Sections 1) Domestic Routes - In December, the ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth was led by Spring Airlines at 16.4%, followed by China Southern Airlines at 6.8% and Air China at 4.2% [2]. - The RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth for December was also led by Spring Airlines at 17.7%, with Air China at 10.6% and China Southern Airlines at 6.9% [2]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, East China Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 10.7%, while Spring Airlines and East China Airlines both had RPK growth of 9.1% [2]. 2) International Routes - In December, China Southern Airlines led with an ASK growth of 25.8%, followed by East China Airlines at 9.4% and Air China at 4.1% [3]. - The RPK growth for December was also led by China Southern Airlines at 22.8%, with East China Airlines at 11.0% and Air China at 9.1% [3]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) showed the highest ASK growth at 37.6% and RPK growth at 43.5% [3]. 3) Regional Routes - In December, Spring Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 92.0%, while 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) experienced a decline of 20.2% [4]. - The RPK growth for December was again led by Spring Airlines at 97.5%, with 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) showing a decline of 15.9% [4]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, China Southern Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 3.1%, while Spring Airlines and 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) both showed significant declines [4]. 4) Passenger Load Factor - In December, Spring Airlines had a load factor of 91.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [5]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, Spring Airlines maintained a load factor of 91.5%, with Air China at 81.9% showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [5]. - The total fleet of the five listed airlines increased by 15 aircraft by December 2025, with a year-on-year fleet growth of 4% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for TSMC, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [50]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached NT$1,046.09 billion (US$33.73 billion), a year-over-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.9%, exceeding the upper guidance range [8][10]. - The gross margin for Q4 2025 improved to 62.3%, up from 59.5% in the previous quarter, driven by cost improvements and higher capacity utilization [2][8]. - The company plans to significantly increase capital expenditures, with a projected budget of US$52 billion to US$56 billion for 2026, focusing on advanced technology and long-term capacity expansion [4][22]. Summary by Sections 1. TSMC Q4 2025 Operational Performance - Revenue: Q4 2025 revenue was NT$1,046.09 billion (US$33.73 billion), up 25.5% YoY and 1.9% QoQ, supported by strong demand for leading technology [8][10]. - Gross Margin: Achieved a gross margin of 62.3%, higher than the guidance range, due to cost improvements and favorable exchange rates [8][10]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders was NT$505.74 billion, reflecting a 35.0% YoY increase [8][10]. 2. Revenue Breakdown - By Platform: In Q4 2025, mobile accounted for 32% of revenue, HPC 55%, IoT 5%, automotive 5%, and digital consumer electronics 1% [14]. - By Process Technology: Revenue from 3nm process technology constituted 28%, while 5nm accounted for 35% [18]. 3. TSMC Q1 2026 Guidance - Revenue Guidance: TSMC expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between US$34.6 billion and US$35.8 billion, representing a YoY growth of approximately 38% [5][22]. - Gross Margin Guidance: Expected gross margin for Q1 2026 is between 63% and 65% [5][22]. 4. Capital Expenditure - Q4 2025 capital expenditure was approximately US$11.51 billion, with a total capital expenditure for 2025 increasing to US$40.9 billion from US$29.8 billion in 2024 [4][12]. - The capital budget for 2026 is projected to be between US$52 billion and US$56 billion, with a significant portion allocated to advanced technology [4][22]. 5. Global Manufacturing Layout - TSMC is accelerating capacity expansion in Arizona, with plans for multiple fabs to meet strong AI demand [11][15]. - The company is also expanding its manufacturing capabilities in Japan and Europe, supported by local government initiatives [15].

Export Structure Overview - In 2025, China's export structure shows a significant contribution from emerging markets, with a 49.1% share, up 2.5 percentage points from 2024[21] - Exports to the US decreased to 11.1%, down 3.5 percentage points from 2024, while non-US developed markets increased to 39.8%, up 1 percentage point[21] Commodity Contribution - Intermediate goods' export share rose from 41.9% in 2017 to 47.4% in 2025, with an annual increase of 0.7 percentage points[28] - Consumer goods' share fell from 36.6% to 28.7%, with an average annual decline of about 1 percentage point[28] - Capital goods' share slightly decreased from 21.5% to 20.1%, maintaining relative stability[28] Growth Contribution - From 2018 to 2025, the contribution of intermediate goods to export growth increased from 55.8% to 85%, while consumer goods' contribution dropped from 24.7% to -34%[28] - Capital goods' contribution rose from 19.4% to 22.4% during the same period[28] Regional Analysis - In the US, intermediate goods' share increased by 2.7 percentage points to 33.2%, while consumer goods decreased by 1 percentage point to 43.3%[41] - In the EU, intermediate goods remained stable at 39.3%, with consumer goods dropping by 3.1 percentage points to 31.7%[46] - In ASEAN, intermediate goods rose by 3.1 percentage points to 61.6%, while consumer goods fell by 5 percentage points to 19.1%[52] Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are driving growth, with significant contributions from regions like Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America, which collectively boosted exports by 5.6%[22] - The overall export growth for China in 2025 is projected at 5.5%, a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year[21]

- The report constructs an equal-weighted index based on the stocks investigated by fund managers over the past six months, with the "Research Stock-All Sample Index" achieving a cumulative return of 21.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2% during the same period[5][13][14] - The "Research Stock-Growth Index" achieved a cumulative return of 20.5% over the past six months, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2% during the same period. Additionally, the representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate reached 29.2%, outperforming both the Growth Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[25][26][27] - The "Research Stock-Balanced Index" recorded a cumulative return of 25.7% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 19.8%, which is lower than the Balanced Index but higher than the Shanghai Composite Index[32][33][34] - The "Research Stock-Value Index" achieved a cumulative return of 18.3% over the past six months, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 8.8%, which is lower than both the Value Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[39][40][42] - The "Research Stock-Large Cap Index" achieved a cumulative return of 23.8% over the past six months, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate reached 28.4%, outperforming both the Large Cap Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[51][52][54] - The "Research Stock-Mid Cap Index" recorded a cumulative return of 23.9% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 23.0%, which is close to the Mid Cap Index and higher than the Shanghai Composite Index[61][62][61] - The "Research Stock-Small Cap Index" achieved a cumulative return of 19.2% over the past six months, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 17.5%, which is lower than the Small Cap Index but higher than the Shanghai Composite Index[68][69][71] - The "Research Stock-TMT Index" achieved a cumulative return of 23.9% over the past six months, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate reached 38.8%, outperforming both the TMT Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[79][80][79] - The "Research Stock-Manufacturing Index" recorded a cumulative return of 23.4% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 29.4%, outperforming both the Manufacturing Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[87][88][87] - The "Research Stock-Consumer Index" achieved a cumulative return of 7.5% over the past six months, slightly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 1.9%, which is lower than both the Consumer Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[94][95][94] - The "Research Stock-Cycle Index" recorded a cumulative return of 21.3% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 29.2%, outperforming both the Cycle Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[100][101][100] - The "Research Stock-Financial Real Estate Index" achieved a cumulative return of 33.2% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 7.7%, which is lower than both the Financial Real Estate Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[107][108][107]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【专题报告】 收益差择时系列之二：如何在 A 股指数与恒 生指数构建多空模型？ ❖ 摘要 本文是华创金工在港股指数量化择时研究的第三篇，上一篇《收益差择时 模型：基于 A 股指数与恒生指数的实证》构建了上下行收益差的多头策略， 本文的目标是构建上下行收益差的多空策略。 上下行收益差多空策略在 A 股指数上的年化收益与夏普比率基本上超越 了各自上下行收益差多头策略。尤其在上证 50 指数、沪深 300 指数、上证 180 指数、中证 100 指数大盘风格指数的年化和夏普均能显著超越各自多头策略， 历史回溯表现优秀。 在恒生指数上面，上下行收益差多空策略与成交额上下行收益差多空策略 表现并不尽入人意。因此我们另辟蹊径，选择上证 50 指数作为恒生指数的相 似指数，构建了上下行收益差相似多头策略与上下行收益差相似多空策略。 上下行收益差相似多头策略在恒生指数(HSI)表现如下，年化收益为 8.86%，最大回撤为 41.72%，夏普比率 0.4，胜率 48.80%，盈亏比 1.93。上下 行收益差相似多头策略在恒生国企指数(HSCEI)表现如下，年化收益为 12.3%， 最大回撤为 ...