Group 1: CDS Prices and Market Trends - Oracle's 5-year CDS price reached 145.5 basis points, significantly higher than Apple's 25.7, Amazon's 35.9, Google's 39.9, and Microsoft's 35.9 basis points, but lower than the high-yield bond basket's 315.1 basis points[4] - Despite Oracle's CDS price increase, the North American high-yield bond basket's CDS price fell to 315.1 basis points, the lowest since September 26[6] - Investors expect the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts to be lower and delayed, with the SOFR futures curve's low point at 3.1%, unchanged from October but lower than December's 3.2%[10] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 rose to 4.3%, up from 3.8% in the previous quarter, marking the highest level since Q3 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%[15] - The Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index's equity risk premium (ERP) stands at 4.2%, below the 16-year average by one standard deviation, indicating potential for valuation uplift[17] - China's 10-year government bond forward arbitrage return is at 35 basis points, 65 basis points higher than December 2016 levels[21] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - Investors maintain expectations that the European Central Bank will not cut rates further, with the Euribor futures curve's low point at 2.1%, higher than previous months[12] - The divergence in the copper-gold price ratio and offshore RMB exchange rate signals inconsistent trends, with the copper-gold ratio dropping to 2.7 and the offshore RMB rising to 7.0[27] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 28.8, above the past 16-year average, suggesting increased attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [19]. Core Insights - The insurance index increased by 2.98%, outperforming the broader market by 1.03 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with notable increases from ZhongAn (+4.74%), Ping An (+3.51%), and China Pacific (+3.14%) [1]. - As of November 2025, the insurance industry is projected to achieve a cumulative original premium of 5.76 trillion yuan, with property insurance at 1.34 trillion yuan and life insurance at 4.42 trillion yuan [2]. - The report highlights a potential short-term upward trend in long-term interest rates, which may benefit the insurance sector. Despite anticipated performance pressure due to high investment bases in 2026, the report suggests that stabilizing interest rates and improving "spread" (investment income minus comprehensive liability costs) could drive valuation recovery [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector's absolute performance over the past 12 months is 33.4%, with a relative performance of 16.6% compared to the benchmark [6]. Company Valuations - The report provides PEV valuations for life insurance companies: China Life at 0.89x, Ping An at 0.86x, New China at 0.8x, and China Pacific at 0.69x. For H-shares, Ping An is at 0.74x, New China at 0.57x, and China Pacific at 0.54x [4]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant valuation recovery potential, such as China Life H and China Pacific [3]. Earnings Forecasts - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025E for key companies are as follows: China Pacific at 5.68 yuan, China Life at 6.34 yuan, New China at 12.62 yuan, China Pacific at 3.00 yuan, and China Property at 2.07 yuan. The report also provides PE and PB ratios for these companies, indicating a favorable investment outlook [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [41][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of Hainan's customs closure and the winter sports season on service consumption, predicting a robust demand for hospitality and travel services in 2026. Notably, Hainan's first week of duty-free shopping post-closure saw sales of 1.1 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 54.9% [4]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in domestic ski and ice tourism ticket bookings, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately 70% from November 2025 to February 2026 [4]. - Key investment targets include hotels with balanced supply and demand, human resources services, the duty-free sector, and internet platforms that integrate online and offline operations [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion RMB and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion RMB [1]. Market Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 1.05% in the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, while the overall A-share market rose by 2.77% [7][10]. - The report notes that the hospitality sector, including hotels, saw varied performance, with some companies like Green Tea Group and Dingdong Maicai showing significant gains [16][19]. Important Announcements - Key announcements from companies in the consumer services sector include share buybacks and financial updates, such as Guilin Tourism's court ruling to recover illegal profits of 52.15 million RMB [31][30]. Upcoming Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in the upcoming month, including Nanjing Commercial Travel and Changbai Mountain [34].

证 券 研 究 报 告 安克创新（300866）14 周年庆&嘉年华活动点评 强推（维持） 线下活动诚意十足，重视长线配置价值 事项： 近日我们受邀出席公司新品内测与线下访谈活动，并同步参加安克创新 14 周 年庆以及创造者嘉年华，现作核心反馈如下： 评论： | 元 | | | --- | --- | | 目标价：145 | | | 当前价：113.63 | 元 | [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 24,710 | 31,080 | 38,150 | 45,675 | | 同比增速(%) | 41.1% | 25.8% | 22.7% | 19.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 2,114 | 2,699 | 3,211 | 3,785 | | 同比增速(%) | 30.9% | 27.6% | 19.0% | 17.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | 3.94 | 5.03 | 5.99 | 7.06 | | 市盈率 ...

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 化妆品行业跟踪：林清轩通过港交所聆讯 2025年12月29日 分析师 汤秀洁 执业编号：S0360525080008 邮箱：tangxiujie@hcyjs.com 联系人 王笑飞 执业编号：S0360125090005 邮箱：wangxiaofei@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。华创证券对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考， 并不构成本公司对所述证券买卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 摘要 证券研究报告 此页包含机密资料，其全部或任何部分不可被复制或再发送。本页不构成对任何产品的要约出售/购买、招揽或建议。关于免责声明全文，详见本PPT最后部分。 2 林清轩：甄选高山红山茶花，开创以油养肤理念，连续11年位居精华油榜首，线下554家门店并逐步发力电商，精耕细作铸就国货高端品牌。 行业：预测2025年以油养肤市场规模从2024年77亿元同比增长45%至 ...

宏观研究 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 52 期 沥青开工率明显改善 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数震荡回升。截至 12 月 21 日，该指数为 5.22%，环比前 一周上行 0.06 个点。 2、地产销售：商品房住宅成交面积同比降幅继续收窄。我们统计的 67 个城 市，截至 12 月 26 日当周，商品房成交面积同比为-19%。12 月前 26 日累计同 比为-26%。11 月同比为-34%。 3、基建：石油沥青装置开工率改善。截至 12 月 24 当周，开工率为 31.3%， 较上周环比回升 3.7 个点，较去年同期高 5.4 个点。 4、价格：铜价、金价、油价均上涨。COMEX 黄金收于 4546.2 美金/盎司，上 涨 4.6%；LME 三个月铜价收于 12218 美元/吨，上涨 4.1%；美油收于 56.7 美 元/桶，上涨 1.1%，布油收于 60.6 美元/桶，上涨 1.4% （二）景气向下 1、耐用品消费：乘用车零售低位运行。12 月第三周，乘用车零售同比增速- 11%，前值-17%。12 月前三周累计同比-18.8%。11 月全月同比为-8.1%。 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 大类资产年关盘点 ——策略周聚焦 ❖ 2025 年全球大类资产对比：贵金属、权益市场表现强势 过去两年贵金属持续走强，年初以来黄金涨 63.8%，白银自 11 月底加速上行， 涨幅达 158%，超越黄金。中国权益资产表现突出，A 股和港股分别上涨 18.3% 和 28.7%，显著优于过去三年，并反超美股（17.8%）和欧股（17.4%）。美债 小幅上涨 3.4%，中债下跌 1.1%；原油跌 8.8%，国内房价跌 5.7%；比特币由 前两年领涨转为回调 13.3%。 ❖ 2025 年全球主要股指对比：权益资产普遍上行，新兴市场、科技股优势凸显 相较 22 年普跌及 23–24 年结构性分化，2025 年全球股指普遍回暖，新兴市场 与科技股优势突出。上证指数上涨 18.3%，显著优于 21–23 年低迷表现，自 24 年 924 后稳步修复。今年亚洲市场领涨，韩国综合指数大涨 72.1%，日经 225 涨 27.2%；欧洲相对疲弱，法国 CAC40 和英国富时 100 分别涨 9.8%和 20.8%； 美股延续上涨趋势，纳指与标普 500 分别涨 22.2%和 17 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has emphasized increasing efforts in nuclear fusion technology, indicating a strategic shift from basic research to engineering and industrialization [8][10] - Trump Media Technology Group has reached a merger agreement with TAE Technologies, valuing the deal at over $6 billion, with plans to construct the world's first commercial nuclear fusion power plant by mid-2026 [10][11] - The Chengdu quasi-ring symmetric stellarator project has successfully completed its main structure, expected to operate by 2027, filling a significant gap in China's stellarator research [12] Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 331.83 billion yuan, with 121 listed companies [4] - The industry has shown a 3.1% absolute performance over the last month and a 5.1% performance over the last six months [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Hezhong Intelligent and Lianchuang Optoelectronics, with a suggestion to pay attention to Guoguang Electric [3][35] - The nuclear fusion sector is expected to see significant capital expenditure growth, with an estimated investment of 146.5 billion yuan in major domestic projects over the next 3-5 years [7][30] - The magnet segment holds a high value proportion, with recommendations to focus on Xibu Superconductor, Yongding Co., and Jingda Co. [35][42] Market Trends - Recent bidding activity has shown a total of 5.21 billion yuan in awarded projects, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the nuclear fusion sector [17][21] - The market has experienced significant stock price movements, with top gainers including Zhongtung High-tech and Zhongke Technology, each rising by 18% in the last half of December [30][33]

证 券 研 究 报 告 思特威-W（688213）深度研究报告 强推（首次） L3 获批有望加速智驾落地，"安防+手机+汽 车"共驱成长 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,968 | 9,206 | 12,218 | 15,142 | | 同比增速(%) | 108.9% | 54.3% | 32.7% | 23.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 393 | 1,001 | 1,431 | 1,902 | | 同比增速(%) | 2,662.8% | 154.8% | 43.0% | 32.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.98 | 2.49 | 3.56 | 4.73 | | 市盈率(倍) | 98 | 38 | 27 | 20 | | 市净率(倍) | 9.2 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 26 日收盘价 公司研究 集成电路 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the bond market in November 2025 based on the central bank's balance sheet and bond custody data, presenting the latest ideas of the central bank's monetary policy and the new dynamics of institutional investors' bond - market investment strategies, and predicting short - term investment opportunities and risks in the bond market [9]. - In the cross - year allocation window, some trading opportunities can be appropriately participated in, and when the 10y Treasury bond approaches 1.85%, it has a safety margin and can also be appropriately allocated. For 30y bonds, small - band operations can be carried out when the 30 - 10y spread is above 40bp, and larger positions require the start of a decline in the 10y Treasury bond yield or an improvement in the supply - demand structure of ultra - long bonds. The cross - year funds are expected to remain loose, and the coupon - holding strategy can be continued, with different strategies for different types of investors [10][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 11 - month Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation 3.1.1 November 2025 Central Bank Balance Sheet Change Interpretation - In November 2025, the central bank's balance sheet size increased from 47.06 trillion yuan to 47.30 trillion yuan. The main increase items on the asset side were "claims on other depository corporations", and on the liability side, they were "currency issue" and "deposits of other depository corporations", while the main decrease item was "deposits of financial corporations not included in reserve money" [15]. - On the asset side, near the end of the year, the central bank "withdrew short - term funds and released long - term funds", and the increment of "claims on other depository corporations" rebounded. The central bank increased its net purchase of Treasury bonds, and its Treasury bond holdings increased slightly after considering the maturity of the month. - On the liability side, due to the strong demand for cash by residents and enterprises at the end of the year, the "currency issue" and "deposits of other depository corporations" of the central bank increased seasonally [27] 3.1.2 Impact of the Central Bank's Operations on Custody Volume in November 2025 - In November 2025, the central bank carried out 150 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations and a net purchase of 5 billion yuan of Treasury bonds, with a total net investment of 54.88 billion yuan through innovative tools. The single - month increase in the "ChinaBond - Other" (central bank) account was 59.07 billion yuan, which was relatively close to the net investment scale of innovative tools. The main incremental bond types were Treasury bonds and local government bonds [31][32] 3.2 Leverage Ratio: Driven by the Carry Trade Space, the Institutional Leverage Level Continued to Rise - In November, with the central bank's increased volume of outright reverse repurchases and MLF and the help of fiscal expenditures, the capital market was generally stable. The carry - trade strategy of institutions was dominant, the average monthly trading volume of the whole - market pledged repurchase increased from 7.3 trillion yuan in October to 7.5 trillion yuan in November, and further rose to 8.3 trillion yuan since December. The average leverage ratio of bond funds increased from 116.9% in October to 117% in November, and further to 118.7% since December [34] 3.3 By Institution: The Power of Allocation - Oriented Investors Remained, Funds Reduced Duration, and Wealth Management Reserves Coupon - Bearing Assets 3.3.1 Reasons for the Widening of the 30 - 10y Spread - In the long - run, the imbalance in the supply - demand structure of ultra - long bonds may affect the spread center, including the continuous lengthening of government bond issuance terms and the weakening of the allocation demand for ultra - long bonds. However, in the short - term, the direct reason for the widening of the 30 - 10y spread was the large - scale selling by trading - oriented investors such as funds and securities companies [43][46] 3.3.2 Banks: Large - Scale Banks' Short - Term Bond Buying Continued to Increase, and Rural Commercial Banks' Sentiment towards Allocating Certificates of Deposit Improved - Large - scale banks: In November, the single - month bond investment volume increased significantly. In the primary market, the demand for underwriting government bonds increased, and in the secondary market, the net buying of short - term bonds was strengthened. Due to the pressure of duration indicators, the continuous buying of short - term bonds by large - scale banks led to a continuous widening of the 10 - 3y Treasury bond term spread [55][58] - Rural commercial banks: The sentiment towards allocating bonds improved, and they turned to net buyers of certificates of deposit. In November, the net selling scale decreased significantly, and they increased their positions in some bonds during the bond - market adjustment. Since December, with the rising spread between certificates of deposit and Treasury bonds, rural commercial banks turned to net buyers of certificates of deposit [61] 3.3.3 Insurance: During the Bond - Market Adjustment, Insurance Increased Positions at High Yields, Mainly Increasing Positions in Exchange - Traded Local Government Bonds - In November, as the bond - market yield fluctuated upward, insurance companies increased their positions at high yields, mainly increasing their positions in exchange - traded local government bonds. The total monthly bond - allocation increment in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased, and the net buying scale also rose [70] 3.3.4 General Funds: Driven by the Defensive Mentality, Funds Reduced Duration and Sold Ultra - Long Bonds, and Wealth Management Reserves Coupon - Bearing Assets in Advance - Funds: In November, the redemption pressure of funds reappeared, and the scale of bond funds was under pressure. Driven by the defensive mentality, they reduced duration and sold ultra - long bonds, with the net buying scale significantly weaker than the seasonal level. Since mid - December, the sentiment towards allocating bonds has improved [81] - Bank wealth management: Supported by the transfer of deposits, the scale of bank wealth management increased, and the main allocation varieties switched from certificates of deposit to short - term credit bonds, preparing coupon - bearing assets for the next year in advance [84] 3.3.5 Foreign Capital: The Comprehensive Return on Investing in Certificates of Deposit Remained at a Low Level, and the Net Outflow of Foreign Capital Accelerated - In November 2025, the comprehensive return on foreign capital's investment in certificates of deposit remained at a low level, and the net outflow scale increased, mainly reducing positions in certificates of deposit and Treasury bonds [93] 3.4 By Bond Type: The Main Support for the Increment of the Bond - Market Custody Volume was Government Bonds - In November, the increment of the bond - market custody volume increased to 1.4798 trillion yuan, and government bonds were the main support, with the increments of Treasury bonds and local government bonds being 645.7 billion yuan and 590.2 billion yuan respectively [95] - Interest - rate bonds: The net financing scale increased. The net financing scale of interest - rate bonds increased from 623 billion yuan to 1495.1 billion yuan, with the net financing scale of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all rising [102] - Certificates of deposit: The maturity pressure increased, and the net financing of certificates of deposit decreased significantly. In November, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit increased significantly, the issuance scale decreased, and the net financing scale dropped from 796.9 billion yuan to - 511.2 billion yuan [105]