Economic Data Review - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 51, indicating expansion, while the Q3 actual GDP annualized growth rate was finalized at 4.4%[1] - Japan's December export growth was below expectations at 5.1%, compared to the forecast of 6.1%[10] - The Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index increased to 40.8, and France's Manufacturing PMI reached a near four-year high of 51[10] US Economic Indicators - The WEI index for the US decreased to 2.34% from 2.48%[15] - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth marginally fell to 5.5% from 5.7%[17] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the US rose to 6.09% from 6.06% the previous week, while the MBA Market Composite Index increased by 14.1% to 397.2[21] Employment Trends - ADP's weekly job additions fell to 46,000, down from 70,000 the previous week[26] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 200,000 from 199,000 the prior week, while continuing claims decreased to 1.849 million[30] - The INDEED job vacancy index showed a slight decline, averaging 105.3, down 0.5% from the previous week[34] Price Movements - The RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index increased by 3.4% to 312.24, while US gasoline prices rose to $2.70 per gallon, up 1.3% from the previous week[36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US dropping to 0.812 from 0.848[43] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed improvement for the yen against the dollar, while the euro's liquidity worsened[46] - The 10-year US-EU bond yield spread narrowed to 132.3 basis points from 134.6 basis points[48]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 法国制造业 PMI 升至近四年新高——海外 周报第 124 期 ❖ 核心观点： 1、重要数据回顾：①美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 回升，第三季度实际 GDP 环比折年率终值为 4.4%，ADP 周度新增就业人数下滑。②日本 12 月出口增 速不及预期。③欧元区 1 月 ZEW 经济景气指数回升，1 月制造业 PMI 初值 回升，法国制造业 PMI 升至近四年新高的 51。 2、美国基本面高频：①景气上行的有：地产（房贷申请数量继续回升）、物价 （大宗价格回升、美国汽油零售价回升）、就业（续请失业金回落）。②景气下 行的有：WEI 指数（经济景气下行）、消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回落）、 就业（初请失业金人数回升）。 3、美国流动性高频：①美国和欧元区金融条件收紧。②离岸美元流动性：日 元兑美元流动性改善，欧元兑美元流动性恶化。 ❖ 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 美国经济活动指数回落。1 月 17 日当周，美国 WEI 指数升至 2.34%，上周为 2.4 。 上周为-0.03%。 ❖ 三、需求 1、美国红皮书商业零售同比增速边际回落。1 月 16 日当周 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry but emphasizes a positive outlook on various segments within the industry, particularly innovative drugs and medical devices [9][10]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is transitioning from a quantity-driven logic to a quality-driven logic, focusing on differentiated products and internationalization by 2025 [9]. - There is a notable shift in funding from active to passive medical funds, indicating a low allocation status in the pharmaceutical sector, which is expected to change as passive funds become a significant part of the investment landscape [16][17]. - The report outlines a structured approach to ETF investment in the pharmaceutical sector, emphasizing a dynamic combination of broad-based and targeted strategies to balance returns and risks [27]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index decreased by 0.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 25th among 30 sectors [6]. - The top-performing stocks included *ST Changyao, Hualan Biological Engineering, and Kangzhong Medical, while the worst performers were Kaiyin Technology and Aidi Pharmaceutical [6]. Innovative Drugs - The report highlights a positive outlook for domestic innovative drugs, suggesting a focus on companies that can deliver profits, such as BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others [9]. Medical Devices - The medical device sector is expected to see a recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment by 2025, with a focus on companies like Mindray and United Imaging [9]. - The home medical device market is also anticipated to grow due to supportive policies and accelerated international expansion [9]. Innovation Chain (CXO + Life Science Services) - The report indicates a potential recovery in overseas investment and financing, with domestic financing expected to stabilize, marking the beginning of a new wave of innovation [9]. Pharmaceutical Industry - The report suggests that the specialty API sector may see cost improvements, leading to a new growth cycle, with companies like Tonghua Dongbao and Huahai Pharmaceutical highlighted for their potential [9]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report discusses the expected growth in the basic drug market and the impact of state-owned enterprise reforms on companies like Kunming Pharmaceutical and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical [11]. Pharmacy Sector - The report expresses optimism about the pharmacy sector due to the acceleration of prescription outflow and the optimization of competitive dynamics, recommending companies like YaoXing and YiFeng Pharmacy [11]. Medical Services - The report notes that anti-corruption measures and centralized procurement are improving the market environment for private medical services, with recommendations for companies like Huashan Medical and Aier Eye Hospital [11]. Blood Products - The report anticipates a favorable long-term growth path for the blood products industry, with companies like TianTan Biological and Boya Biological expected to benefit from increased demand and supply elasticity [11].

证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 工业略降温，二手房延续"开门红" ——每周高频跟踪 20260124 （1）动力煤：煤价由涨转跌。全国多地降温，居民用电需求增加，沿海电 厂日耗迅速攀升。但下游库存仍较为充裕，补库压力不明显。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格由涨转跌。本周冬季需求淡季特征明显，户外施 工逐步停滞，螺纹钢表观需求下降，厂库、社库双增，下游需求季节性走 弱，钢厂利润修复缓。 （3）沥青：开工率环比下降。受降温降水天气影响，终端施工需求进一步 下滑，华南需求平稳，其他地区需求均下降至低位。 2、地产：（1）新房成交行情小幅降温。1 月 16 日-1 月 22 日，30 城新房成交 面积 116.4 万平方米，环比-10.55%，单周同比-38%，跌幅扩大。（2）二手房 成交环比继续增长。二手房成交面积环比+14.3%，环比保持上行，同比回正 至+14%，表现强势。 ❖ 消费相关：1 月中上旬乘用车零售同比-28% 1、汽车：1 月 1 日-28 日，乘用车市场零售 67.9 万辆，同比-28%，环比- 37%，去年春节偏早，节前集中购车影响形成高基数，导致 1 月同比偏低。 2、原油：油价涨幅扩大。布伦特原油 ...

Market Performance - Since October 2025, major indices have shown upward volatility, with the CSI 2000, CSI 500, and National CSI 2000 all achieving over 10% gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index has repeatedly surpassed 4000 points, reaching recent highs[1] - The top five performing sectors in Q4 2025 were non-ferrous metals (33.48%), national defense and military industry (28.59%), oil and petrochemicals (25.94%), basic chemicals (18.59%), and building materials (18.01%)[1] Fund Establishment and Positioning - A total of 100 new actively managed equity funds were established in Q4 2025, with a total share of 604.71 billion[2] - The average stock positions of various types of actively managed equity funds decreased compared to Q3 2025, with mixed equity funds averaging 88.69% (down 1.05%) and ordinary stock funds at 90.52% (down 0.52%)[3][31] Industry Distribution - The sectors with increased holdings of over 10 billion included non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials, while sectors with decreased holdings included pharmaceuticals, computers, electronics, power equipment and new energy, and media[4] - The top five heavy-weight sectors for actively managed equity funds in Q4 were electronics (22.89%), communication (11.14%), power equipment and new energy (9.29%), pharmaceuticals (8.1%), and non-ferrous metals (8.09%) with notable increases in non-ferrous metals (up 2.08%) and communication[4][47] Individual Stock Analysis - The top five stocks with the largest increases in holdings were Zhongji Xuchuang, Dongshan Precision, China Ping An, Xinyi Technology, and Shengyi Technology[5] - The largest reductions in holdings were seen in Industrial Fulian, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Ningde Times, Luxshare Precision, and Focus Media[5] Billion Fund Holdings - As of January 22, 2026, there were 31 funds with over 10 billion in assets, a decrease of 3 from the previous quarter, with significant changes in holdings for companies like Shengyi Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang[6] Hong Kong Stock Holdings - The top three Hong Kong stocks held by funds in Q4 2025 were Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and SMIC, each with a market value exceeding 18 billion, but all saw reductions of over 10 billion compared to the previous quarter[7]

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国太平（00966.HK）2025 年报预增点评 推荐（维持） 业绩增长两倍，主因投资与税收 目标价：29.6 港元 事项： ❖ 根据公司初步估算，本集团 2025 年度股东应占溢利预计同比增加 215%至 225%。 评论： 一、对于新保险合同准则执行年度为 2025 年度及之前的企业，自 2026 年起以 新保险合同准则为基础，作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业首次执行《保险合同准则》产生的留存收益累积影响数，按税前金额计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额，或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税 所得额。两种方法可自主选择，一经选择不得更改。 首次执行年度至 2025 年度期间，企业执行《保险合同准则》为基础计算的应 纳税所得额与已申报的应纳税所得额的差额，计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额， 或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税所得额。 二、对于 2026 年度及以后年度为首次执行年度的企业，在计算缴纳企业所得 税时，自首次执行年度起以《保险合同准则》为基础，按照企业所得税现行规 定作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业因执行《保险合同准则》产生的留 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 评论： 一、对于新保险合同准则执行年度为 2025 年度及之前的企业，自 2026 年起以 新保险合同准则为基础，作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业首次执行《保险合同准则》产生的留存收益累积影响数，按税前金额计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额，或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税 所得额。两种方法可自主选择，一经选择不得更改。 首次执行年度至 2025 年度期间，企业执行《保险合同准则》为基础计算的应 纳税所得额与已申报的应纳税所得额的差额，计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额， 或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税所得额。 二、对于 2026 年度及以后年度为首次执行年度的企业，在计算缴纳企业所得 税时，自首次执行年度起以《保险合同准则》为基础，按照企业所得税现行规 定作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 中国太平（00966.HK）2025 年报预增点评 推荐（维持） 业绩增长两倍，主因投资与税收 目标价：29.6 港元 事项： ❖ 根据公司初步估算，本集团 2025 年度股东应占溢利预计同比增加 215%至 225%。 企业因执行《保险合同准则》产生的留 ...

策略研究 【策略快评】 加周期金融地产，减消费 TMT ——25Q4 基金季报点评 主动权益 Q4 新发持续回暖，存量赎回明显下降 ①从发行来看，25Q4 基金新发份额环比增长 0.2%，10-12 月发行规模分别为 159、253、151 亿元，合计 562 亿，季度新发较 Q3 基本持平。②从申购赎回 来看，25Q4 主动偏股型基金存量赎回 1261 亿份，较 25Q3 赎回 2184 亿份下 降。四季度市场呈现震荡走势，随着海外流动性和风险改善、"十五五"规划 建议落地以及政治局会议等催化下，叠加以商业航天为代表的主题行情火热， 市场风险偏好明显回升，推动基金新发规模持续回暖。同时，随着主动权益基 金赚钱效应的回归，存量基金赎回规模出现明显下降。 风格配置：增配周期、金融地产，减配消费、TMT ①板块：主板、科创板占比下降，创业板占比上升。②大类行业：增配周期、 金融地产，减配消费、TMT。25Q4 主动偏股型基金周期板块持股市值占比从 25Q3 的 11.9%提升至 25Q4 的 15.4%，金融地产板块持股市值占比从 3.9%上 升至 4.5%；消费板块持股市值占比从 25Q3 的 20.1%下降至 ...

- In the past two years, broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net outflows, with a cumulative net outflow of 534.63 billion yuan since 2026, including 267.32 billion yuan from CSI 300, 71.58 billion yuan from CSI 1000, 45.67 billion yuan from STAR 50, 49.11 billion yuan from SSE 50, and 33.39 billion yuan from ChiNext Index[3] - Since 2024, there have been four major net inflows of medium- and long-term funds through broad-based ETFs, mainly into CSI 300 (current retained market value of approximately 608.8 billion yuan), CSI 1000 (approximately 163.4 billion yuan), CSI 500 (approximately 137.7 billion yuan), and ChiNext Index (approximately 105.8 billion yuan)[3] - Medium- and long-term funds in Q3 2025 were heavily invested in banks (37% of market value), non-bank financials (19%), food and beverage (5%), construction (4%), and utilities (4%)[3] - The report provides detailed statistics on the net inflows and outflows of major broad-based ETFs, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, ChiNext Index, and others, with specific figures for each ETF[5] - The report includes a table estimating the current cost lines for major ETFs, showing the buy and sell cost lines for each round of net inflows and outflows, along with the retained market value and the current index price[7] - The report lists the top holdings of medium- and long-term funds in Q3 2025, including Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Ping An Insurance, Bank of China, and others, with specific market values and percentages[9] - The report notes that the data comes from periodic reports disclosed by listed companies, fund reports, and other sources, and that medium- and long-term funds include entities such as Central Huijin, China Securities Finance, and others[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, under the "controlling incremental" policy, the national land transaction volume continued to decline, but the decline significantly narrowed. The full - year transaction volume was about 3.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9%, and the decline decreased by 9 percentage points year - on - year. The premium rate was about 7.5%, a year - on - year increase of 1.25 percentage points, and the proportion of land purchased by urban investment companies was around 45%, a year - on - year decrease of 6 percentage points [6][9]. - Looking forward, land supply may continue to be optimized, and the decline in land transaction volume may narrow, driving the year - on - year decline in land transfer income in government fund revenue to continue narrowing. Attention should be paid to land supply in core cities and the confidence of real - estate enterprises in land acquisition [6][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 National Land Transaction Changes - In 2025, the central government made efforts in demand, supply, and real - estate enterprise financing to promote the market to "stop falling and stabilize". The land transaction volume continued to decline but with a narrowing decline. Structurally, in the first half of the year, the transaction volume increased by 12% year - on - year, decreased by 7% in the third quarter, and decreased by 22% in the fourth quarter, with a significant increase in urban investment companies' land acquisition for support [6][9]. 3.2 2025 Provincial and Municipal Land Transaction Status Analysis 3.2.1 Provincial Land Transactions - In terms of transaction volume, Jiangsu and Zhejiang exceeded 400 billion yuan, Shandong and Guangdong exceeded 200 billion yuan, and Qinghai and Ningxia were less than 10 billion yuan. 14 provinces had year - on - year growth, with Jilin at 84%, while Shaanxi decreased by 37%, and Jiangsu and Guangxi decreased by over 20% [2][20]. - In terms of premium rate, 15 provinces exceeded 5%, with Zhejiang, Shanghai, etc. exceeding 10%, and Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi less than 2%. 20 provinces had a year - on - year increase, with Zhejiang increasing by nearly 11 percentage points, and Guangxi decreasing by about 9 percentage points [2][21]. 3.2.2 Top 30 Cities in Land Transaction Volume - The top 30 cities in land transaction volume were mainly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Hangzhou had the highest transaction volume at 183 billion yuan, followed by cities with over 70 billion yuan. 10 cities had year - on - year growth, and Yancheng and Changzhou decreased by over 50% [3][23]. - In terms of premium rate, Shenzhen and Hangzhou were around 30%. 17 cities had a year - on - year increase, with Hangzhou, Jinhua, and Taizhou increasing by 10 percentage points or more, and Yangzhou decreasing by 48 percentage points [3][23]. 3.3 2025 Provincial and Municipal Urban Investment Company Land Acquisition Status Analysis 3.3.1 Provincial Urban Investment Company Land Acquisition - In terms of land acquisition amount, Jiangsu ranked first at 332.2 billion yuan, with Shandong, Zhejiang, Hubei, and Sichuan exceeding 100 billion yuan. 9 provinces had year - on - year growth, and Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi decreased by over 50% [4][25]. - In terms of the proportion of land acquisition, 10 provinces had a proportion over 50%, concentrated in the central and western regions. 9 provinces had a year - on - year increase, and Liaoning decreased by over 20 percentage points [4][25]. 3.3.2 Top 30 Cities in Urban Investment Company Land Acquisition Amount - The top 30 cities in urban investment company land acquisition amount were mainly in Jiangsu. Nantong, Wuhan, and Nanjing exceeded 40 billion yuan. 7 cities had year - on - year growth, and Yancheng, Changzhou, and Xi'an decreased by over 50% [5][27]. - In terms of the proportion of land acquisition, 19 cities had a proportion over 50%, with Yangzhou at 80% and Hangzhou at 12%. 6 cities had a year - on - year increase, with Hefei increasing by nearly 12 percentage points and Wuxi decreasing by nearly 27 percentage points [5][27]. 3.3.3 Top 30 Urban Investment Entities in Land Acquisition Amount - In 2025, the top 30 urban investment entities in land acquisition amount were mainly in Jiangsu and Fujian. Wuhan Urban Construction Ruizhen Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. had the highest amount at 12.9 billion yuan. Beijing Huarong Infrastructure Investment Co., Ltd. had the highest proportion of local land transaction volume at 100% [29].