Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, highlighting the need for proactive measures to shorten adjustment periods and smooth market fluctuations [5][14][17] - The article from "Qiushi" magazine outlines the critical role of real estate in the national economy and stresses the necessity of maintaining policy strength to align with market expectations [5][14][16] Section Summaries 1. Policy Environment During New Year - The article in "Qiushi" magazine discusses the current phase of the real estate market, indicating a shift from housing shortages to a balance in supply, with a focus on quality over quantity in housing demand [13][15] - It highlights the financial asset nature of real estate, emphasizing its significance in stabilizing the economy and the need for effective expectation management [14][15] 2. Transaction Performance: New and Second-Hand Housing - New housing transactions during the New Year period saw a significant decline, with a daily average of 15.66 million square meters sold across 32 cities, down 44.8% year-on-year [19][21] - In contrast, second-hand housing transactions showed relative stability, with an average of 2,676 units sold daily across 80 cities, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [26][28] 3. Market Trends and Insights - The real estate sector's performance was weak, with the SW real estate index down 0.7%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.1 percentage points [5][19] - The report notes that the PB valuation for major developers is at 0.45x, indicating low market expectations for price recovery [5][19] 4. Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [6][19] - Companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development are highlighted for their potential upside based on current market conditions and valuations [6][19] 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that despite current challenges, there remains significant potential for growth in housing services, second-hand transactions, and real estate asset management, with estimates indicating a need for 10 to 14.9 million new homes annually [16][18] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining policy strength and aligning it with market expectations to foster recovery in the real estate sector [16][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are expected to enter a new phase of intensive catalysis, with both industrial logic and catalysts presenting opportunities. Long-term prospects for domestic large models catching up with overseas counterparts and further application deployment are positive. The report recommends leading internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent, as well as niche application leaders such as Kuaishou and Meitu [7][10]. Summary by Sections Domestic AI Dynamics Tracking - The report tracks domestic AI large model product data, indicating that the web traffic for major AI models remains stable, with some fluctuations. For instance, Kimi had 7.99 million visits, down 7.83% week-on-week, while DeepSeek led with 66.33 million visits, down 5.06% [21][23]. - The report also notes that the average daily visit duration for Kimi is around 8 minutes, while other models like DeepSeek and Tongyi Qianwen are around 5 minutes [13]. Key Company Events - The report mentions that GLM-4.7 has topped the Artificial Analysis global open-source ranking, achieving a score of 68 in the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, making it the top model in both open-source and domestic categories [39][40]. Overseas AI Dynamics Tracking - In the overseas market, ChatGPT continues to lead in web traffic, while Claude's traffic has seen a decline. The report emphasizes the competitive landscape of AI models globally [41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the securities industry, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - The public fund sales fee reform has been smoothly implemented, with a focus on benefiting investors and addressing market concerns. The reform is expected to save approximately 51 billion CNY in investment costs annually, with a comprehensive fee rate reduction of about 20% [5]. - The new rules on redemption fees have been established to protect market liquidity while benefiting investors. The differentiation in redemption fees is aimed at encouraging long-term investment practices [5]. - The classification of products and supporting policies have been upgraded to create a more refined fee rate regulatory system, promoting the development of index funds and equity funds [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth management institutions' service capabilities in the context of the growing equity fund market, suggesting a focus on companies like Huatai Securities, CICC, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities [5]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued new regulations on public fund sales fees, effective from January 1, 2026, marking the completion of a three-phase fee reduction process [5]. - The third phase of the reform is projected to provide approximately 30 billion CNY in annual benefits to investors [5]. Product Classification - The new regulations simplify redemption fee structures into three tiers and allow flexible arrangements for different types of funds, particularly benefiting individual investors in index funds [5]. - The maximum subscription fee rates have been refined, with specific caps for different fund types, encouraging the growth of index funds [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the reforms and the anticipated growth in the equity fund market, including Huatai Securities (AH), CICC (H), Guotai Junan (AH), and CITIC Securities (AH) [5].

Group 1: Global Bull Market Structure - The global equity market shows a significant structural characteristic of "80/20 differentiation," where the percentage of declining stocks in major markets like the US, Germany, Japan, and South Korea reached 56%, 51%, 29%, and 35% respectively, while the A-share market had a decline rate of only 18% [12][10] - Leading sectors include technology and resources, driven by macro narratives such as the acceleration of the AI industry cycle and the revaluation of resources in the de-dollarization cycle. These sectors generally have strong profit support [16][10] - Market capitalization concentration is reaching new highs, with the top 10 companies in most global equity markets accounting for 30%-50% of total market capitalization. In contrast, the concentration in Chinese markets is significantly lower at 18% [25][22] Group 2: Scarcity of High-Growth Assets - The economic cycle has flattened, leading to a scarcity of high-growth assets. In the A-share market, companies with a net profit growth rate exceeding 20% account for 36%, down from historical averages of around 42%-45% [31][30] - In the US, the proportion of companies with net profit growth exceeding 30% is currently 32%, below the historical average of 35%, while the percentage of companies with negative growth is 45%, higher than the historical average of 38% [37][36] - Globalization remains a source of sustained growth, with high growth concentrated in non-US countries post-2020, while the overseas revenue share of major developed countries' companies is significantly higher than that of Chinese companies [48][47] Group 3: Pricing Logic and Market Dynamics - In 2025, the pricing logic in the A-share market is expected to become more extreme, with the effectiveness of growth factors significantly surpassing other financial indicators [54][53] - The current market pricing structure resembles the latter part of the "golden girl" phase, characterized by a significant index rise alongside a high percentage of declining stocks, indicating potential market extremes [54][10] - Signals for market exit may not be effectively indicated by traditional metrics such as industry performance dispersion or valuation dispersion, suggesting a need for a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics [54][10]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong performance in gaming and social entertainment media, with companies like Bilibili and Tencent outperforming the market [3][4][8] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications and the gaming sector, predicting continued industry growth in 2026 [14][19][22] Group 1: Internet Sector - E-commerce: The report notes that the national subsidy policy for 2026 is expected to be slightly better than anticipated, although recent e-commerce performance remains weak [19][20] - Social Entertainment Media: Bilibili and Tencent's advertising performance continues to exceed market expectations, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving [19][20] - Internet Healthcare: JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their platform advantages to deepen cooperation with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, leading to strong revenue and profit growth [20] Group 2: Media Sector - Gaming: The report remains optimistic about the gaming sector's performance driven by fundamentals, recommending leading companies such as Tencent and NetEase [22][23] - Advertising: The report discusses recent adjustments by Focus Media regarding its acquisition of New Wave, reflecting concerns about growth impacts from reduced investment [23][24] - Publishing: Some publishing companies are facing negative impacts from educational reforms, leading to delays in revenue recognition [24] Group 3: Key Company Analysis - Tencent Holdings: The company reported a revenue of 192.9 billion RMB for Q3 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 15% [29] - Kuaishou: The company achieved a total revenue of 35.6 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 14% [30] - Bilibili: The company reported total revenue of 7.685 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 5% [31]

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|计算机 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汉得信息（300170.SZ） AI Agent 核心玩家，商业化进展显著 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | Table_Invest] [公司评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 18.92 元 | | 合理价值 | 23.78 元 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-04 | 基本数据 [Table_BaseInfo] | 总股本/流通股本（百万股） | 1022/0.00 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 19341/0.00 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 25.22/11.15 | | 30 日日均成交量/成交额（百万） | 69/1233 | | 近 3 个月/6 个月涨跌幅（%） | -2.17/15.51 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业周报 降息预期交易继续 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [分析师： Table_Author]宫帅 SAC 执证号：S0260518070003 SFC CE No. BOB672 010-59136660 gongshuai@gf.com.cn 分析师： 王乐 SAC 执证号：S0260523050004 021-38003617 wangle@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈琪玮 SAC 执证号：S0260524040003 SFC CE No. BTE650 021-38003631 chenqiwei@gf.com.cn 请注意，王乐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 -4% 16% 35% 55% 74% 94% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 有色金属 沪深300 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 工业金属与钢铁：内需预期有望改善，工业金属价格或高位运行。铜 铝：25 年 12 月 ...

Manufacturing Sector - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 points to 50.1, significantly above the seasonal trend where the average decline over the past 10 years was 0.3 points[3] - Only 4 out of 15 sub-sectors are in the expansion zone, a decrease of 4 from November, with specialized equipment, non-metallic mineral products, and agricultural products falling below the prosperity line[3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5, up 2.4 points from the previous month, indicating strong growth in this sector[3] Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical, automotive, textile, and computer communication sectors lead in prosperity, with PMI values between 55-60, while the chemical, metal products, and non-metallic mineral sectors are between 45-50[4] - The pharmaceutical sector's production and demand may be influenced by the flu season, while the petrochemical sector stabilized with a production increase of 15 points[5] - The electrical machinery sector saw a 1.3-point increase in PMI, driven by strong demand in home appliances and new energy sectors[6] Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology maintain high prosperity levels, with biotechnology PMI rising by 2.7 points[7] - Among seven emerging industries, biotechnology has the highest prosperity level at 60, while new energy vehicles and next-generation information technology are between 50-55[7] Construction Sector - The construction sector's PMI rose by 3.2 points to 52.9, marking a return to expansion after four months[9] - The real estate sector saw a slight increase of 0.5 points, with construction activities improving due to favorable policies and funding availability[8] - New orders in the construction sector increased by 1.3 points, with real estate new orders rising by 8.2 points[10] Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index increased by 0.2 points to 49.7, with online information technology services and postal services leading the growth[12] - The hospitality and catering sectors experienced the lowest prosperity levels, with indices below 45, reflecting weak consumer activity[12] - The financial services sector remains strong, with indices above 60, indicating robust performance in monetary and capital market services[12]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the commercial aerospace industry, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO has been accepted, marking a significant milestone in the industry as it transitions from a 1 to N phase in the supply chain [4]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with Zhang Changwu holding 23.47% of the shares and controlling 75.20% of the voting rights [4]. - Revenue from 2022 to 2024 shows a significant increase from 0.78 million to 39.5 million, with a projected revenue of 36.43 million in the first half of 2025, primarily from a single client [4]. - The report notes that the company has incurred net losses, with figures of -800 million, -1.19 billion, -880 million, and -600 million for the years 2022 to 2025 H1 [4]. - Major expenditures include costs related to rocket launch services and R&D, with costs rising from 34 million in 2022 to 208 million in 2024 [4]. - The company plans to raise 7.5 billion for projects aimed at enhancing reusable rocket capacity and technology, with specific investments allocated to various production sites [4]. - Blue Arrow's "Zhuque" series rockets have achieved significant milestones, including being the first liquid-fueled rocket to enter mass production in China's private aerospace sector [4]. - The global rocket launch service market is projected to grow from 16.5 billion in 2023 to over 50 billion by 2032, indicating substantial market potential [4]. - The report recommends monitoring companies related to 3D printing and suggests several firms for investment consideration, including Jiangshun Technology and Changchuan Technology [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO status is currently "Accepted" as of December 31, with a focus on enhancing production capabilities and technology [4]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with significant control held by a single individual [4]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth from 2022 to 2024 shows a substantial increase, with a notable reliance on a single client for income [4]. - The company has reported consistent net losses over the past few years, indicating financial challenges [4]. Expenditure Analysis - Major costs are associated with rocket launch services and R&D, with a clear upward trend in expenses [4]. Market Potential - The global market for rocket launch services is expected to see significant growth, driven by increasing satellite deployment needs [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies within the 3D printing sector and highlights specific firms for potential investment [4].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 牛肉进口实施配额制及配额外关税，看好肉牛价格周期上行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-04 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -4% 4% 11% 19% 26% 34% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 农林牧渔 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]钱浩 | SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 | | | --- | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BND274 | 021-38003634 | | | shqianhao@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 李雅琦 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 | 021-68827265 | | | liyaqi@gf.com.cn | 请注意，李雅琦并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 ...