Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2][17]. Core Insights - The year-end TAC peak season elasticity has been realized, and the air freight market remains at a high level of prosperity. The air freight spot market continues to thrive due to the ongoing cross-border e-commerce boom, with the Shanghai (BAI80) freight index at 5327, down 7% week-on-week but up 11% year-on-year, equivalent to 193% of the same period in 2019. The Hong Kong (BAI30) freight index stands at 4411, down 3.2% week-on-week but up 5% year-on-year, also close to last year's peak [5]. - The recent listing of China Cargo Airlines is expected to increase attention on the sector. As the only flag carrier cargo airline in China, it holds the largest market share on major routes to North America and Europe. Eastern Air Logistics, as a leading cargo airline, benefits from the sustained release of cross-border e-commerce dividends [6]. - The government's policies to stabilize foreign trade remain strong, with measures approved to support financial backing, cross-border trade settlements, and overseas smart logistics platform construction. It is expected that foreign trade will maintain stable growth in 2025, highlighting structural growth opportunities [6]. - Investment recommendations suggest that new long-term contracts are likely to see price increases, and the domestic air cargo industry is expected to capitalize on this momentum. Eastern Air Logistics is recommended, with a focus on China Cargo Airlines. The average freight index for Hong Kong and Shanghai is projected to increase by 6.2% and 10.9% year-on-year, respectively, setting a higher price baseline for new long-term contract negotiations [6]. - Eastern Air Logistics plans to distribute cash dividends of 618 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 48% based on the first half of 2024's net profit, indicating a strong performance outlook for the coming year [6]. Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: The air freight market is experiencing high demand, with significant year-on-year increases in freight indices for major ports [5]. - **Company Developments**: The listing of China Cargo Airlines is anticipated to enhance sector visibility, while Eastern Air Logistics continues to lead in operational quality and market share [6]. - **Policy Environment**: Government measures to support foreign trade are expected to foster a stable growth environment for the industry [6]. - **Investment Outlook**: The recommendation to invest in Eastern Air Logistics and monitor China Cargo Airlines reflects confidence in the sector's growth potential [6].

金融工程|量化投资专题 2024 年 12 月 31 日 证券研究报告 图 1: 大盘精选 30(GFAI30.WI) Al 复盘之精选 30 策略组合 深度学习研究报告 报告摘要: 4.0 3.5 3 0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 21-08-3 122-07-0 20-11-0 24-02-2 24-12-2 20-01-0 23-04-2 数据来源:Wind, 广发证券发展研究中心 | 分析师: 安宁宁 | | --- | | SAC 执证号: S0260512020003 | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | 0755-23948352 | | anningning@gf.com.cn | | 分析师: 陈原文 | | SAC 执证号: S0260517080003 | | 0755-82797057 | | chenyuanwen@qf.com.cn | | 请注意,陈原文并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人,不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | 相关研究: | | | --- | --- | | 基于卷积神经网络的股价走 | 2023-04-06 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.89 CNY per share, indicating an expected upside from the current price of 13.98 CNY [41][251]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is shifting positively, which is expected to support a recovery in the company's performance. The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 70% over the past eight years, reflecting its strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns [53][97]. - The company is well-positioned within the Guangdong transportation network, benefiting from the ongoing expansion and improvement of highway infrastructure in the region. The completion of expansion projects for key highways is anticipated to enhance traffic flow and revenue generation [40][51]. - The company has a significant competitive advantage due to its strategic location and the high traffic volume on its toll roads, with average toll revenue per kilometer exceeding 13 million CNY annually [34][274]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights an expected improvement in the macroeconomic environment, which is anticipated to boost the company's performance. The infrastructure sector is set to benefit from increased government spending and supportive policies [5][243]. Company Overview - The company operates as the only publicly listed highway platform under the Guangdong Transportation Group, focusing on toll road operations. It has undergone two major asset restructurings, enhancing its profitability and market position [40][71]. - As of the end of 2023, the company controls approximately 295.88 kilometers of highways, with significant revenue contributions from its key toll roads [40][111]. Financial Performance - The company reported a toll revenue of 48.11 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected decline in revenue for 2024 due to the impact of the newly opened Shen-Zhong Channel, which is expected to gradually stabilize [11][92]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate a net profit of 16.10 billion CNY in 2024, with slight growth expected in subsequent years [251][248]. Highway Expansion Projects - The ongoing expansion of the Jingzhu Expressway and Guanghui Expressway is expected to significantly increase capacity and toll revenue. The Jingzhu Expressway is projected to complete its expansion by 2027, with toll rates expected to rise by approximately 30% post-expansion [11][187]. - The Guanghui Expressway is also undergoing preparatory work for expansion, with completion expected by the end of 2028 [239][242]. Competitive Position - The company benefits from a strong market position within the Guangdong province, where it holds a significant share of the toll road market. The competitive landscape is characterized by stable pricing and a mature network of highways [34][126]. - The report notes that the company's toll revenue per kilometer is among the highest in the industry, reflecting its operational efficiency and strategic asset management [34][179].

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% M2同比 社融存量同比 PPI当月同比（右） 数据来源：国家统计局，广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源：国家统计局，央行，广发证券发展研究中心 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 深度分析|建筑材料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 11 月地产销售同比增速转正，基建增速环比小幅下行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 11 月地产销售同比增速转正，基建增速环比小幅下行。据国家统计 局，2024 年 11 月单月开发投资/新开工面积/销售面积/竣工面积分别同 比-11.6%/-26.8%/+3.2%/-38.8%，增速环比+0.8/-0.1/+4.8/-18.7pct， 地产进一步企稳，销售面积增速去年 5 月以来首次同比转正，地产投 资/开工增速环比变动不大，地产竣工降幅环比扩大；中央持续表态推 动房地产市场止跌回稳，当前处于政策窗口期，未来仍有加力空间。 2024 年 11 月狭义/广义基建投资单月增速分别为 3.3%/9.8%，增速环 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 7.84 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 6.51 CNY [5][38]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant rebound in performance in 2024, with a projected EPS of 0.48 CNY, followed by 0.52 CNY in 2025 and 0.63 CNY in 2026. The estimated revenue for 2024 is 212.35 billion CNY, with a slight decline of 1.4% year-on-year, but growth is expected to resume in subsequent years [38]. - The company is expanding its online business, with projected revenues of 42.36 billion CNY, 55.06 billion CNY, and 71.58 billion CNY for 2024 to 2026, respectively, reflecting a consistent growth rate of 30% [9]. - The company is also focusing on its franchise business, with expected revenues of 93.67 billion CNY in 2024, showing a decline of 12.31% due to market conditions, but a recovery is anticipated in the following years [24]. - The company is enhancing its retail operations through strategic partnerships, such as the collaboration with JD.com to open new discount retail stores, which is expected to be a new growth driver [20]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 18,562 million CNY, with a projected increase to 21,528 million CNY in 2023, followed by a slight decrease to 21,235 million CNY in 2024, and then growth to 23,364 million CNY in 2025 and 26,259 million CNY in 2026 [2]. - The EBITDA for 2022 was 4,651 million CNY, expected to rise to 5,384 million CNY in 2023, but projected to decline to 4,436 million CNY in 2024 before recovering to 4,944 million CNY in 2025 and 5,733 million CNY in 2026 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 2,155 million CNY, with a forecast of 2,952 million CNY in 2023, a drop to 2,282 million CNY in 2024, and then growth to 2,510 million CNY in 2025 and 3,005 million CNY in 2026 [2]. Revenue Breakdown - The direct sales revenue is projected to be 48.06 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 54.00 billion CNY in 2025 and 61.92 billion CNY in 2026, with a stable gross margin of 62.11% [42]. - The franchise business is expected to generate 93.67 billion CNY in 2024, with a gross margin of 37.86% [24]. - The group purchase business is anticipated to yield 20.53 billion CNY in 2024, with a gross margin of 44.00% [25].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 19.41 CNY per share, based on a 13x PE valuation for 2024 [21][34]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from a phase of capacity expansion to a focus on operations and international expansion, achieving positive free cash flow for the first time in 2023 [30][58]. - The quality of the company's waste incineration assets is high, with a strong cash generation capability, and it has a leading position in the industry [32][61]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on shareholder returns, including a stock buyback plan using both self-funding and special loans [53][50]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue from the kitchen waste treatment segment is projected to grow from 430 million CNY in 2024 to 508 million CNY in 2026, with corresponding gross profits of 121 million CNY to 142 million CNY [13]. - The company expects EPS to be 1.49 CNY, 1.62 CNY, and 1.71 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with PE ratios of 10.60, 9.77, and 9.27 [21][22]. Business Segmentation - The company's revenue is primarily derived from waste incineration operations, which accounted for 70% of total revenue in 2023, with a gross margin of 89% [71][73]. - Other segments, including kitchen waste treatment and lithium battery recycling, contribute less significantly to overall revenue, with respective shares of 11% and 3% [71]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 3.178 billion CNY in 2023, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous year, with a projected slight recovery in 2024 [22]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 603 million CNY, reflecting a decline of 17.1% year-on-year [22].

[Table_PageText] 深度分析|汽车 根据中汽协，24年1-11月一汽集团、陕汽集团、东风集团重卡累计出口市占率 均同比上升，分别同比+4.6pct、+1.3pct、+2.9pct至19.7%、21.6%、8.9%；重汽 集团、福田汽车重卡出口市占率同比下降，分别同比-4.6pct、-3.3pct至40.4%、 4.0%。 图21：中国重卡出口市场中各家整车厂累计份额 47% 48% 48% 42% 36% 39% 59% 41% 39% 38% 34% 39% 37% 38% 37% 44% 13% 14% 15% 19% 19% 21% 12% 18% 21% 23% 24% 18% 19% 20% 21% 19% 22% 20% 21% 20% 23% 20% 16% 21% 20% 21% 22% 24% 22%26% 25% 22% 5% 7% 6% 6% 5% 9% 5% 10% 9% 10% 11% 11% 16% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 8% 10% 6% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 6% 5% 5% 7% 6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 4% 6% 7% ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the textile and apparel sector is "Buy" [14]. Core Viewpoints - The textile and apparel industry is expected to show resilience in 2024, with companies like Semir Apparel, Weigao Medical, and Bosideng likely to lead the sector. Additionally, home textile leaders such as Mercury Home Textiles and Fuanna are anticipated to benefit from a stable real estate market and increasing wedding demand in 2025 [14]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that are actively exploring new product lines for growth, such as Nanshan Zhishang, and recommends accumulating shares of companies like Huali Group and Weixing Co. at lower prices in 2025, despite potential short-term disruptions from trade frictions [14]. - The report highlights that the industry has high entry barriers and strong competitiveness, with leading companies expected to maintain steady growth [14]. Summary by Sections Textile and Apparel Industry Review - The textile and apparel sector saw a decline of 3.45% from December 1 to December 27, ranking 23rd among 31 primary industries. The light industry manufacturing sector also declined by 4.10%, ranking 28th [14]. - Cotton spinning enterprises reported a cumulative yarn production increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while fabric production rose by 1.0% year-on-year from January to November 2024 [14]. Data Tracking - The report includes data on the import and export situation of wool and wool products, with a total import value of 14.95 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [14]. - The report also notes that the export value of Swiss watches to China decreased by 27.0% year-on-year in November 2024, with a cumulative export value decline of 26.3% from January to November 2024 [14]. Light Industry Manufacturing Review - The light industry manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery, driven by improved real estate policies and consumer demand. The report suggests that the packaging industry is likely to benefit from domestic demand improvements [14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 12.03 per share, based on a 35x PE valuation for 2025 [2][177] Core Views - The company's business is recovering from the bottom, with significant future growth potential. The issuance of stock options and high market capitalization targets demonstrate management's confidence [2] - The company has no direct comparable listed companies in Hong Kong. Historical valuations during high-growth periods (2020-2021) reached over 30x PE [2] - The company's reasonable value is estimated at HKD 12.03 per share based on a 35x PE valuation for 2025 [2] Market Overview - The global and US e-cigarette markets remain stable, with e-cigarettes accounting for approximately 7.8% of the US tobacco market. The US e-cigarette market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% from 2022 to 2031 [193] - The US disposable e-cigarette market share increased from 25% in 2020 to 52% in 2022, with non-tobacco and non-menthol flavors accounting for 80% of disposable e-cigarettes [194] - As of March 2024, only 34 FDA-authorized products accounted for 13.7% of total US retail store sales [195] Company Performance - The company's total share capital and market capitalization are 6,179.67 million shares and HKD 69,583 million, respectively [3] - The stock price has fluctuated between HKD 4.73 and HKD 15.18 over the past year, with a 30-day average trading volume of 11.66 million shares and turnover of HKD 128.81 million [3] - The stock price has declined by 12.71% over the past three months but increased by 27.51% over the past six months [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to grant 61 million stock options to the chairman at an exercise price of HKD 11.26, with market capitalization targets of HKD 300 billion, HKD 400 billion, and HKD 500 billion by 2025-2030 [2] - The company also plans to grant stock options or awards to core employees [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 9.0%, 31.7%, and 28.9% in 2024-2026, with net profit growth of -18.0%, 44.9%, and 44.0% respectively [73] Industry Trends - The global HNB market continues to grow at a double-digit rate, with PMI, BAT, and Japan Tobacco accounting for 71.4%, 15.5%, and 4.3% of the global heated tobacco market share in 2022 [211] - PMI's heated tobacco unit sales increased by 13% YoY in Q1-Q3 2024, with strong growth in Europe and Japan [55] - BAT's new HNB product, glo Hilo, is expected to have significant growth potential with improved heating technology and taste experience [61]