Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of HKD 15.97 and a fair value of HKD 19.99 [4]. Core Insights - The company is the world's largest sports shoe manufacturer, driven by both manufacturing and retail operations, with a potential performance turnaround expected [1][9]. - The manufacturing business is expected to see revenue and profitability improvements due to various factors, including a recovery in order placements from brand clients and a favorable market environment in 2026 [9]. - The retail business is actively pursuing multi-channel and refined operations, which are anticipated to lead to a performance rebound [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest sports shoe manufacturer globally, with a market share based on annual production [14]. - It has a significant workforce of 285,500 employees, with 265,500 in manufacturing and 20,700 in retail [14]. - The company achieved a revenue of USD 8.182 billion in FY2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2][14]. Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment contributed 68.7% of total revenue and 85.2% of profit in FY2024, with revenues of USD 5.621 billion, up 11.1% year-on-year [17]. - The average selling price (ASP) for shoes was USD 20.25, down 5.1% year-on-year due to a higher concentration of high-end products in previous years [17]. - The company has a diversified production base across several countries, with significant output from Indonesia, Vietnam, and China [15][17]. Retail Business - The retail segment, operated through the subsidiary BaoSheng International, generated USD 2.561 billion in FY2024, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year [24]. - The company is optimizing its store network, reducing the number of direct-operated stores to 3,448 while improving average store size [24]. - The retail business is expected to benefit from improved discount rates and effective inventory management [9]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.23, USD 0.26, and USD 0.28 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively [9]. - The report estimates a fair value of HKD 19.99 per share based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method [9]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a historical increase of 2044.24% since its listing in 1992, although it has faced challenges in recent years due to external market conditions [46]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fluctuated between 7 and 18 times, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [46].

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 高频数据下的 12 月经济：数量篇 | 分析师： [Tabl | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 贺骁束 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003589 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | hexiaoshu@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，贺骁束并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 用电量增速淡季偏弱，叠加暖冬影响，中电联口径截至 12 月 25 日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发 电量同比下降 8.5%，较 11 月同比的-7.2%进一步有所走低。工业开工率同样呈淡季特征，叠加基数偏高，除 下游汽车全钢胎 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the energy storage sector, driven by the implementation of capacity pricing mechanisms in China and increasing demand for energy storage solutions globally, particularly in the context of AI advancements [7][14][27] - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is expected to see a reversal in profitability due to ongoing technological innovations and regulatory measures aimed at curbing excessive competition [7][14][27] Energy Storage - Large-scale energy storage in China is transitioning towards market-driven models, with the introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms expected to enhance the economic viability of storage projects. The expected installed capacity for energy storage in China is projected to reach 154 GWh in 2025, 254 GWh in 2026, and 337 GWh in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 40.2%, 65.2%, and 32.5% respectively [7][14][27] - The report highlights that the U.S. is experiencing rapid growth in energy storage demand, particularly driven by data center construction, with an anticipated addition of 13 GW of data centers leading to a storage demand of 10.7 to 25 GWh [7][14][27] - In Europe, the demand for flexible resources is increasing, and the development of large-scale storage is accelerating due to improved business models and subsidies. The report forecasts that global energy storage installations will reach approximately 279 GWh in 2025, 423 GWh in 2026, and 563 GWh in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 52%, and 33% respectively [7][14][27] Photovoltaic Industry - The report notes that the PV industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with regulatory bodies emphasizing the need to address price violations and excessive competition within the sector. This is expected to lead to improved profitability in the downstream component segment of the PV industry by 2026 [7][14][27] - Global PV installations are projected to reach nearly 580 GW in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6%, driven by reasonable capacity limits in various regions [7][14][27] - Technological innovations aimed at reducing costs and increasing efficiency are expected to facilitate a reversal in profitability for the PV sector, with advancements in battery technology playing a crucial role [7][14][27] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the PV sector that are driving N-type technology innovations, such as JinkoSolar, Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, and JA Solar. It also suggests focusing on companies benefiting from new technological iterations in auxiliary materials [7][14][27] - In the energy storage sector, it highlights companies with technological leadership and competitive advantages, such as Sungrow Power Supply, Hubei Huadian, Canadian Solar, and Shenghong Technology, while also suggesting attention to firms like Shuneng Electric and Kehua Data [7][14][27]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Business Price Index (BPI) recorded 899 points in the fourth week of December, reflecting a 2.4% increase compared to the end of November[3] - The highest BPI index for the year was 907 points on March 16, while the lowest was 849 points on June 11[3] - The energy index decreased by 4.2% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous index increased by 11.4% month-on-month[4] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Silver prices surged by 9.76%, nickel by 7.05%, and copper by 4.31% in the fourth week of December[4] - The South China Comprehensive Index rose by 3.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year average increase of 3.0%[5] - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) increased by 6.0% month-on-month, with lithium carbonate futures rising by 26.2%[6] Group 3: Real Estate and Logistics - The second-hand housing price index in major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) decreased by 1.0% to 1.9% month-on-month[5] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 26.7% month-on-month, while the road logistics price index decreased by 1.3%[7] - The average wholesale price of pork dropped by 1.4%, while key vegetable prices fell by 2.8%[7] Group 4: Price Trends - The ICPI index (based on online data) reached 100.41, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.42%[7] - The DXI index (representing the DRAM memory industry) rose by 21.1%, reaching a historical high[6]

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a recovery in profits, with November electricity consumption increasing by 6.2% year-on-year [6][32] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, indicating confidence in its future performance [3] Group 1: Coal Sector Review - In December, the coal sector saw a slight decline, underperforming the market by 19.4 percentage points year-to-date [6][16] - The coal sector's cumulative decline for the year is 1.7%, ranking 29th out of 30 sectors [6][16] - The sub-sectors of thermal coal, coking coal, and coke experienced declines of 3.5%, 4.5%, and 5.8% respectively in December [6][16] Group 2: Coal Market Overview - November electricity consumption grew by 6.2%, while non-electric demand remained weak, and coal imports fell by approximately 20% year-on-year [6][32] - Domestic coal prices have shown weakness in thermal coal, while coking coal prices have stabilized and slightly increased [32][40] - International coal prices for high-calorific thermal coal have remained stable, while coking coal prices have continued to rise [49] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Supply - In November, domestic raw coal production decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with imports down by 19.9% [59] - The total raw coal production for the first eleven months of the year was 4.402 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [59] - The report highlights that the demand for electricity and industrial production remains a critical factor influencing coal consumption [51][52] Group 4: Key Companies and Financial Analysis - Key companies with stable profits and dividends include China Shenhua, Yancoal, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6][7] - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and supply constraints include Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Huabei Mining [6][7] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key companies, indicating their earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and return on equity (ROE) [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company is a leader in corporate management training, demonstrating strong growth resilience with a revenue scale that continues to increase, and a net profit margin consistently above 30% since 2023 [9] - The industry benefits from the development of the private economy, with long-term quality leaders having opportunities to increase market share despite short-term macroeconomic pressures [9] - The company leverages a differentiated product strategy and an excellent business team to create a competitive advantage, focusing on practical management training courses and a strong faculty with real-world experience [9] - The strategic focus on large clients, the "Hundred Schools Plan," and AI empowerment are expected to enhance growth flexibility and drive future expansion [9] - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of 300 million, 350 million, and 400 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 52.53 RMB per share based on a 2026 P/E ratio of 18x [9] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply engaged in corporate management training for over 20 years, providing a full lifecycle of management education services, with management training revenue accounting for over 80% of total revenue [14] Industry Analysis - The corporate training industry is experiencing continuous growth, with the market size expected to reach 1.3194 trillion RMB by 2025, driven by an increasing number of enterprises and a growing awareness of training needs [45][46] Product and Team Strength - The company emphasizes research and development to create effective and comprehensive course offerings, utilizing a "factory model" for systematic course development [55] - The faculty includes a mix of local practitioners and international experts, ensuring high-quality course delivery [60] Growth Strategies - The company has successfully implemented a large client strategy, significantly increasing its client base and revenue from major enterprises [72] - AI initiatives are enhancing operational efficiency across various business processes, contributing to improved performance metrics [77][78]

Group 1: PMI Overview - December PMI overall rebounded, with manufacturing PMI rising 0.9 points to 50.1 and non-manufacturing PMI increasing 0.7 points to 50.2[4] - Composite PMI for December was 50.7, up 1.0 points from previous values, marking a rebound after consecutive declines in October and November[4] - Manufacturing PMI in December is notably higher than the ten-year average decline of 0.3 points for the same period, indicating a seasonal anomaly[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Large enterprises saw a PMI rebound of 1.5 points, while small enterprises experienced a contraction of 0.5 points, reflecting a divergence in business conditions[5] - December BCI was 49.8, down from 51.6, and EPMI was 49.1, down from 52.7, indicating a significant seasonal decline[6] - Construction PMI surged to 52.8 in December from below 50 for four consecutive months, influenced by favorable weather and policy-driven infrastructure investments[10] Group 3: Demand and Supply Indicators - Supply and demand indicators showed synchronized rebounds, with production and procurement indices rising 1.7 and 1.6 points respectively[6] - New orders and new export orders increased by 1.6 points and 1.4 points, respectively, indicating improved business activity expectations[6] - The business activity expectation index rose to 56.5, up from 56.2, suggesting positive sentiment among businesses[8] Group 4: Price Indices - The raw material procurement price index slightly decreased to 53.1 from 53.6, while the factory price index increased to 48.9 from 48.2, indicating a mixed price environment[10] - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to continue influencing price dynamics positively[9] Group 5: Risks and Outlook - Risks include unexpected changes in the external economic and financial environment, geopolitical risks, and potential underperformance in construction activity in Q1[12] - The report suggests that domestic policy benefits and improvements in fundamentals may create favorable conditions for Q1 data[12]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the coal industry is entering a new cycle with a significant increase in value, driven by supply-demand restructuring and improved market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Cycle Review - The coal price center has significantly increased during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to usher in a new cycle [4][15]. - The report reviews four cycles of the coal industry, highlighting that the current cycle may see a recovery from the bottom in the second half of 2025 [15][16]. - The average price of Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal reached 718 RMB/ton in the second half of 2025, reflecting a 6% increase compared to the first half [20][21]. Group 2: Supply Restructuring - Coal production from 2020 to 2024 increased by 23% to 4.78 billion tons, but growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025, with production growth in Xinjiang only at 2.6% [4][33]. - The report anticipates that coal production will enter a peak and decline phase, with growth rates expected to be between 0.5% and 1.0% from 2026 to 2028 [4][33]. - Regulatory policies are expected to impact coal production, potentially leading to negative growth in certain periods [4][33]. Group 3: Demand Restructuring - The demand for coal is expected to maintain resilience, with electricity consumption projected to grow at around 5% over the next five years, driven by new manufacturing and increased electrification [4][33]. - The report notes that while coal consumption is expected to decline in the short term due to electricity demand pressures, it is likely to recover as macroeconomic policies strengthen in 2026 [4][33]. - Chemical demand is projected to grow at approximately 5%, while declines in steel and construction materials are expected to narrow [4][33]. Group 4: Global and Commodity Perspectives - The report highlights that global coal production is expected to decline, while Southeast Asian demand is projected to grow by 3-5% from 2025 to 2030 [4][33]. - Compared to other commodities, coal has shown weaker performance, with the copper-coal ratio and gold-coal ratio at historical highs [4][33]. - The coal industry's share of industrial profits has dropped to historical lows, while the electricity sector's profit share has reached a high of 10% [4][33]. Group 5: Overall Viewpoint - The report concludes that the coal price center is expected to rise to around 750 RMB/ton in 2026, with leading companies offering dividend yields of 4-6% [4][33]. - Key companies identified include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to maintain stable profitability [4][33]. - The report emphasizes that after a pessimistic outlook on coal prices is reversed, valuation elasticity is likely to become apparent [4][33].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a current price of 39.95 CNY and a fair value of 44.47 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of aviation engines, focusing on both military and civilian applications, with a comprehensive product range including complete engines and components, as well as maintenance services [8][17]. - The investment logic is based on sustained demand growth in the military sector due to aircraft upgrades and the increasing maturity of aviation engine technology, which drives demand in the civil aviation market [8][17]. - The aftermarket for engine maintenance is highlighted as having a superior business model with stable cash flows and lower risks associated with downstream models [8][43]. - The report forecasts significant growth in revenue and profit margins, driven by product diversification and increasing maintenance service volumes, with a projected revenue of 64.18 billion CNY by 2027 [2][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a major player in the aviation engine manufacturing sector, producing a wide range of military and civilian engines, with a significant portion of revenue coming from engine and derivative product sales [17][25]. - The company has a history of over 20 years and has undergone significant restructuring to become a publicly listed entity [20][21]. Aftermarket Maintenance Opportunities - The global aviation engine maintenance market is expected to exceed 500 billion USD over the next decade, with maintenance revenues being at least four times that of new engine sales [43][49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the maintenance market, which is characterized by stable cash flows and lower sunk costs, making it an attractive segment for the company [8][43]. Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 64.18 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% from 2023 to 2027 [2]. - The report maintains a fair value estimate of 44.47 CNY per share, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 128 times for 2026, supporting the "Accumulate" rating [4][8].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a high growth period for the wind power industry, driven by structural inflation and dual coastal dynamics, leading to a profit reversal [1] - The investment strategy is rated as "Buy" for the wind power sector, reflecting confidence in future growth [2] Group 1: Global Demand and Market Dynamics - The "136 Document" promotes the full market entry of renewable energy, with a significant shift in capital expenditure from solar to wind power among major state-owned enterprises [15][16] - Domestic wind power installations are expected to grow, with onshore wind capacity projected to increase from 100 GW to 105 GW and offshore wind from 9 GW to 15 GW between 2025 and 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29.1% for offshore wind [17][18] Group 2: Profitability and Market Trends - The report indicates that the domestic wind power sector is entering a profitability upturn due to the effectiveness of anti-involution policies, with high-price orders securing profits for the next two years [19] - The transition from large-scale competition to a diversified value chain is highlighted, with a focus on cost reduction and risk mitigation as large-scale projects slow down [36] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high overseas customer ratios and active offshore deployment, such as Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Smart Energy, and SANY Heavy Energy [5] - For foundational components, companies like Dajin Heavy Industry and Hailey Wind Power are recommended, while for subsea cables, firms with strong port capabilities like Dongfang Cable and Zhongtian Technology are highlighted [5] Group 4: Regional and International Developments - The report notes that European offshore wind capacity is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 54.3% from 2025 to 2027, driven by strong policy support and market demand [36] - In Asia, countries like Vietnam and the Philippines are setting ambitious offshore wind targets, with Vietnam aiming for 6 GW by 2030 and the Philippines targeting 40 GW by 2050 [44]