Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see a rebound in Q4 due to low base effects and the holiday season, despite facing pressure in North America and Asia-Pacific in Q3 [7] - The company anticipates flat revenue growth for 2024, with a positive outlook for 2025 [8] - The resilience of the Samsonite brand is noted, while TUMI is impacted by weak high-end consumer spending [9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, revenue decreased by 8.3% year-on-year to $880 million, with a gross margin of 59.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The adjusted EBITDA margin fell by 2.7 percentage points to 17.6% compared to the previous year [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 39.1% to $70 million, with a net profit margin of 7.5% [7] - The company added 83 stores year-on-year, with fixed SG&A expenses increasing by 0.4% [7] Regional Performance - Q3 2024 revenue by region showed declines: Asia (-12.2%), North America (-7.9%), Europe (-2.3%), and Latin America (-8.3%) [5] - The revenue decline in Asia was attributed to high base effects from the previous year and weak consumer demand, particularly in China and India [5] - North America faced challenges due to weak retail traffic and high-end consumer spending, with TUMI's revenue down 14.2% [5] - Latin America showed strong growth in local currency terms, with a revenue increase of 13.7% [5] Brand Performance - Revenue changes for Q3 2024 compared to the previous year: Samsonite (-3.9%), TUMI (-9.5%), and American Tourister (-17%) [9] - TUMI's revenue was significantly affected by weak high-end consumer spending in North America and Asia [9] - All brands experienced growth in Latin America, with revenue increases of 19.4% for Samsonite, 27.4% for TUMI, and 6.6% for American Tourister [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $343 million and $375 million for 2024 and 2025, respectively [9] - The report assigns a PE valuation range of 14-15X for 2024, translating to a fair value range of HKD 25.72-27.56 per share [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected return above the benchmark index by more than 10% [26]. Core Insights - The report highlights the integration of AI and digital economy infrastructure, emphasizing the growing demand for communication capabilities driven by AI model training and applications [2]. - The satellite communication sector is expected to experience rapid growth, supported by national policies and local government initiatives [2]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Aojie Technology, Shengke Communication, and Zhongci Electronics, among others [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the optimization plan for existing data centers in Beijing, which is set to receive policy support from multiple government departments [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on companies involved in AI-driven technologies, optical fiber cables, and IoT, with specific mentions of companies like Hengtong Optic-Electric and Zhongtian Technology [2]. - It also notes the evolution of communication speeds from 100G to 1.6T, creating new demands for optical chips and related technologies [2]. Market Performance - The report provides a simulation investment portfolio for the communication industry, detailing the performance of selected stocks and their respective weights [11]. - It notes that the communication sector experienced a decline of 2.37% in the week of November 11-15, with an average drop of 4.74% for the selected stocks in the portfolio [12][13]. Sector Analysis - The report outlines the performance of various sub-sectors within the communication industry, highlighting significant growth in optical modules and PCB-related sectors, with year-to-date increases of 84.64% and 79.25%, respectively [16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the AI sector's attention continues to rise, with companies like Applovin and Shopify benefiting from AI-driven business growth. The advancements in text-to-video technology are expected to lower user creation barriers and reshape the video content creation ecosystem. The report suggests focusing on companies with relevant AI products and quality IP reserves, while also monitoring cultural exports and IP derivatives [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Haidong Media portfolio increased by 2.85% in November, while the Shenwan Media Index rose by 1.07%, contrasting with a 3.29% decline in the CSI 300 Index [8]. Recommended Companies - Suggested companies to focus on include: 1. Internet sector: Tencent Holdings, Bilibili-W, Kuaishou-W 2. Gaming sector: Kaiying Network, Shenzhou Taiyue, Gibit, Sanqi Interactive Entertainment, ST Huatong 3. Marketing: Focus Media, Easy Point Tianxia 4. IP Entertainment: Shanghai Film, Chinese Online, Yaoji Technology, Aofei Entertainment 5. AI Applications: Doushen Education, Kunlun Wanwei, Huace Film & TV, Meitu 6. Undervalued State-Owned Enterprises: Broadcasting - Jishi Media, Zhongguang Tianze; Publishing - Southern Media, Anhui New Media, Times Publishing 7. High-growth lottery sector: Songyang Resources 8. New focus on gaming + AI toy sector: Shifeng Culture [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in new home transaction growth, with a year-on-year increase of 13% in the 46th week of 2024 for 30 major cities, despite a week-on-week decline of 4.42% [4]. - The cumulative transaction area for new homes from November 1 to November 14, 2024, reached 4.65 million square meters, representing a 56.5% increase compared to the same period in October 2024 and a 20% year-on-year increase [5]. - The report notes a decline in second-hand home transactions, with a total area of 2.06 million square meters in the 46th week of 2024, down 6.7% week-on-week but up 19.1% year-on-year [6]. - Land supply and transaction data indicate a supply area of 35.4 million square meters and a transaction area of 11.04 million square meters, with a supply-to-sales ratio of 3.21 times [7]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In the 46th week of 2024, the new home transaction area for 30 major cities was 2.27 million square meters, with a breakdown of 760,000 square meters in first-tier cities, 1.07 million square meters in second-tier cities, and 450,000 square meters in third-tier cities [4]. Cumulative New Home Transactions - From November 1 to November 14, 2024, the cumulative transaction area for new homes was 4.65 million square meters, with first-tier cities accounting for 1.43 million square meters, second-tier cities 2.31 million square meters, and third-tier cities 910,000 square meters [5]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - The second-hand home transaction area for 18 cities in the 46th week of 2024 was 2.06 million square meters, with first-tier cities at 538,000 square meters, second-tier cities at 1.44 million square meters, and third-tier cities at 85,000 square meters [6]. Land Supply and Transactions - The land supply area for the week was 35.4 million square meters, with a total land transaction area of 11.04 million square meters, and the cumulative land supply for the year was 82,173 million square meters, down 13% year-on-year [7]. Real Estate Index Performance - The real estate index was reported at 2362.2 points, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 8.05%, while the year-to-date performance showed an increase of 8.82% [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The automotive industry has shown mixed performance in recent weeks, with the Shenwan Automotive Index down 2% over the past week, while the New Energy Vehicle Index remained flat [3][9]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from November 1 to 10 reached 567,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%, while cumulative retail sales for the year reached 18.402 million units, up 4% year-on-year [4][20]. - The integration of the Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands is expected to enhance brand positioning and sales synergy for Geely Group [4][22]. - The rapid growth of intelligent driving data from Li Auto indicates significant advancements in user experience and technology [4][21]. - The government is accelerating the pilot programs for intelligent connected vehicles, which is expected to boost the related industry chain [4][25]. Summary by Sections Automotive Industry Market Performance - Over the past week (November 8-15, 2024), the Shenwan Automotive Index decreased by 2%, while the New Energy Vehicle Index was flat. In the past month, the Shenwan Automotive Index increased by 11% [9][10]. - The automotive sector has shown strong performance this year, with the Shenwan Automotive Index up 17% year-to-date [10][11]. Key Stocks in the Automotive Sector - Notable gainers in the past month include Lihu Co., Jinbei Automotive, and Yingboer, while significant decliners include Hailian Jinhui and Jingu Co. [13][16]. Passenger Vehicle Sales - From November 1 to 10, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 310,000 units, a 70% increase year-on-year, with cumulative sales for the year at 8.638 million units, up 41% [20]. Strategic Developments - The preliminary agreement between Zhongsheng Holdings and Seres for distribution cooperation highlights the potential for growth in the electric vehicle market through strategic partnerships [5][26]. - The recommendation for investment includes companies with strong capabilities in autonomous driving and those involved in domestic substitution and industrial upgrades, such as XPeng Motors and BYD [6][27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the rapid acceleration of AI application deployment among major companies, indicating a significant growth trend in the AI sector [5] - Tencent's release of the AI smart workbench "ima" is seen as a pivotal moment for AI applications, enhancing user interaction and knowledge management [5] - Baidu's daily usage of its Wenxin model has surged to over 1.5 billion calls, reflecting a 7.5 times increase since May and a 30 times increase year-on-year, showcasing the explosive growth of AI applications in China [5] - The report suggests that the AI application "explosion point" may be approaching, driven by widespread enterprise adoption and innovation [5] Summary by Sections AI Application Development - Major companies are actively launching AI application products, with Tencent, Baidu, and ByteDance leading the charge [5] - Tencent's "ima" integrates various data sources to provide personalized assistance and knowledge management [5] - Baidu's new AI technologies, including iRAG and a no-code tool, are enhancing the practicality and accessibility of AI applications [5] Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in AI application usage, with Baidu's Wenxin model achieving unprecedented growth in daily calls [5] - The trend indicates a shift towards AI as a mainstream application, with enterprises increasingly collaborating with AI service providers [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Dameng Data, Inspur, Kingsoft Office, and Hikvision, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI application boom [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the coal sector, driven by rising coal prices and high dividend yields from select stocks [2][3]. Core Insights - The coal sector has historically generated excess returns primarily due to rising coal prices, with recent stability in high price levels suggesting continued potential for excess returns [2]. - High dividend stocks within the coal sector are currently undergoing a valuation recovery, indicating a decoupling from coal price fluctuations [3]. - Demand for coal remains resilient, particularly from the thermal power sector, while chemical and steel industries show stable demand patterns [10][13][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Performance Review - The coal sector's excess returns are closely correlated with coal price increases, with recent price stability suggesting ongoing profitability [2]. - High dividend stocks are experiencing a revaluation phase, indicating a shift in market perception despite coal price fluctuations [3]. 2. Demand Analysis - Thermal power demand shows resilience, with production growth rates of +6.1% year-on-year for 2023, while chemical and steel sectors maintain stable demand [10]. - Steel demand is supported by structural adjustments in product offerings and increased exports, with a notable 19.6% year-on-year increase in steel exports for the first eight months of 2024 [13]. - Chemical sector demand is expected to remain strong, with coal consumption for chemical production increasing by 9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [16]. 3. Production Insights - Coal production in the first nine months of 2024 shows a slight year-on-year increase of +0.6%, with significant reductions in production from Shanxi province [23]. - Coking coal production has declined by 6% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced output in Shanxi [25]. 4. Import Trends - Coal imports are projected to exceed 500 million tons in 2024, with a significant increase in imports from Australia and Indonesia [26][27]. - The share of imported coking coal has risen to 20% in the first nine months of 2024, indicating a growing reliance on imports to meet domestic demand [30].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the photovoltaic (PV) sector, indicating a turning point after a prolonged price decline, with a focus on quality and technology, and encouraging innovation and concentration among leading companies [25]. Core Insights - The PV industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with signs of a turning point emerging, supported by frequent meetings to strengthen self-discipline and combat unhealthy competition [7][10]. - Domestic policies are frequently issued, indicating sustained growth in PV demand, with significant government support for renewable energy development [13][15]. - New technologies are gaining support in bidding processes, which is expected to lead to rapid promotion and application of these technologies [18][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Photovoltaic Cycle Bottom and Turning Point Signals - The industry is recognized to be at the bottom of its cycle, with a sample of 52 PV companies showing signs of profit stabilization and price recovery [6][10]. - The average bidding price for various components has shown a slight increase, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [10][11]. 2. PV Demand: Frequent Domestic Policies and Sustained Growth - The report highlights that the domestic PV installation capacity is expected to reach 250 GW in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4% [14][15]. - The global PV penetration rate reached 5.49% in 2023, with China's rate at 6.18%, indicating significant growth potential [15]. 3. New Technologies Supported in Bidding, Expected Rapid Promotion - New technologies such as N-type, HJT, and BC have been included in bidding processes, with average prices indicating a premium for these advanced technologies [18][20]. - The report anticipates that 2025 may be a critical year for the development of new technologies, particularly if production challenges can be overcome [22][23]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies at the bottom of the material price cycle, such as Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, and JinkoSolar, among others [25]. - It also suggests monitoring companies involved in inverter technology and energy storage, as well as those innovating in new technologies [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected return above the benchmark index by more than 10% [42]. Core Insights - The cement industry is experiencing a rebound in profitability after a prolonged low period, with supply-side constraints and improving demand expectations contributing to this recovery [4][8]. - In the glass sector, the report highlights the emergence of potential investment opportunities among leading companies as the industry navigates through a challenging phase marked by significant supply reductions [22][26]. - The decorative building materials segment emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with high shareholder returns, focusing on those with strong cash dividend policies and high input-output ratios [32][34]. Cement Industry Summary - The cement industry's profitability has reached a low point, with the price difference between cement and coal showing signs of improvement since Q3 2024, indicating a potential recovery [4][6]. - Supply-side measures have been implemented, with increased kiln shutdown days in East China, leading to a significant reduction in production days compared to the previous year [8][9]. - Demand is expected to improve, supported by fiscal policy changes, including an increase in local government debt limits [8][12]. - Key companies to watch include Conch Cement and Taipai Group, which exhibit strong cash positions and dividend policies [13]. Glass Industry Summary - The glass industry is at a historical low in profitability, with significant supply reductions expected as companies opt for early cold repairs and delayed restarts [18][22]. - The report suggests that leading companies like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group are well-positioned to gain market share as the competitive landscape improves [26][28]. - The report notes a 10% reduction in supply from February to October 2024, which is expected to lead to inventory depletion among glass manufacturers [22][24]. Decorative Building Materials Summary - The report identifies a substantial market for renovation in the existing housing stock, with an estimated 300 billion square meters of existing residential space projected to drive demand for building materials [35][36]. - Companies with high input-output ratios and strong shareholder return policies, such as Weixing New Materials and Rabbit Baby, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [34][35]. - The report emphasizes the correlation between a company's culture, incentive mechanisms, and its long-term performance in terms of return on investment [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical industry, anticipating demand recovery and profit improvement in Q3 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The overall mechanical sector is under pressure, with a significant focus on policy enhancements [1]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across 35 sub-industries, with median profit growth rates of +5.06% and -6.90% year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 7.45%, reflecting a decline of 1.19 percentage points [1][5]. - The mechanical industry's overall gross profit margin is reported at 27.88%, down 0.09 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Mechanical Industry Performance (Q1-Q3 2024) - The mechanical sector's profitability is under pressure, with Q3 2024 showing a decline in revenue and net profit compared to previous quarters [1]. - Key financial metrics include a gross profit margin of 28.16% and a net profit margin of 6.39%, both reflecting year-on-year declines [1]. 2. Sub-Industry Analysis - **Energy Equipment**: Performance is under pressure, with cash flow issues noted [1]. - **Forklifts**: Steady growth with ongoing trends in electrification and internationalization [1]. - **Semiconductor Equipment**: Notable improvement in profitability, with a recovering industry outlook [1]. - **Scientific Instruments**: Continuous improvement in profitability, driven by domestic substitution trends [1]. 3. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 50.1%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing sentiment [1]. - The report notes a significant increase in fixed asset investment, particularly in the real estate sector, supported by government policies [1]. 4. Material Costs and Market Conditions - Raw material prices have shown fluctuations, with steel prices declining and aluminum prices increasing slightly [4]. - The report tracks various economic indicators, including the BDI index and CCFI shipping rates, which reflect broader market conditions [4]. 5. Valuation Metrics - As of October 31, 2024, the mechanical industry is positioned in the upper-middle range of valuation among sectors, with a rolling P/E ratio of 25.57 [5]. - Specific sub-industries such as electrical machinery have the lowest P/E ratio at 18.99, while others like aerospace and shipping equipment have higher ratios [5].