[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/有色金属/铝 证券研究报告 神火股份（000933）公司季报点评 2024 年 10 月 23 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 股票数据 | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 22 日收盘价（元） ] | 18.63 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 13.04-25.38 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 2249/2243 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 41905/41791 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《煤炭有望量增价稳，电解铝盈利走阔优势巩 | | | 固》 2023.10.24 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -14.70% 0.30% 15.30% 30.30% 45.30% 20 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" and the rating is maintained [3] Core Views - The SW LED index rose by 6.54% this week, while the SW Electronics index rose by 9.65%, and the CSI 300 index rose by 0.98% [3] - The LED industry underperformed the electronics industry by 3.11% but outperformed the CSI 300 by 5.56% [3] - Key companies to watch include Leyard, Unilumin, MTC, and Sanan Optoelectronics [5] Sector Performance - Top gainers in the LED sector this week were Qianzhao Photoelectric, Aike Co, and Jiuliang Co, with gains of 29.33%, 12.52%, and 12.47% respectively [4] - Absen reported a 2.73% YoY decline in Q3 2024 revenue to 920 million yuan and a 62.21% YoY decline in net profit to 28.9453 million yuan [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, Absen's revenue increased by 7.11% YoY to 2.718 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 46.36% YoY to 118 million yuan [4] - Aoto Electronics announced a planned reduction of up to 10 million shares (1.5392% of total shares) by its controlling shareholder [4] Industry News - Visionox's Guangzhou intelligent manufacturing base is expected to produce over 10 million components annually [4] - Delijia initiated an LED agricultural light strip manufacturing project with a total investment of 108 million yuan [4] - Yiyue Technology's production base in Hefei has commenced operations, expected to produce various electronic process equipment [4] - Skyworth Commercial's Wuhan factory COB Mini LED backlight production line has officially started operations [4] - The Skyworth Wuhan Mini LED Display Technology Industrial Park project has a total investment of 3.5 billion yuan and is expected to produce over 2.4 million Mini LED display terminals annually [4] - HKC launched a 27-inch MiniLED monitor with a starting price of 1,399 yuan [4] - Xiaomi's S Pro Mini LED 2025 series TV started pre-sales on October 14, with prices ranging from 4,599 yuan to 12,999 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and maintains "Market Performance" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in investment, sales, and new construction area, indicating a potential recovery in the construction sector [1]. - Infrastructure investment has accelerated in September, with significant improvements in both broad and narrow infrastructure investment growth rates [1][10]. - The manufacturing sector continues to show robust growth, with a year-on-year increase in investment [1][20]. Summary by Sections Downstream and Leading Indicators - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous eight months [10]. - In September, both broad and narrow infrastructure investment growth rates improved, with broad infrastructure investment increasing by 17.5% year-on-year and narrow infrastructure investment by 2.2% [12]. - Real estate investment decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months, with sales area down by 17.1% [15][16]. Funding Tracking - Special bond issuance significantly increased in September, with a total of 1,027.917 billion yuan issued, a 29.06% increase from August [22]. - The funding availability rate for construction sites improved, reaching 62.50% by the end of September, with a continuous upward trend observed over the past three weeks [24]. Industry Order Tracking - Major construction state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have seen a slowdown in new order growth, with some companies reporting declines in new contracts [27]. - The overseas contracting sector remains strong, with new contracts increasing by 21.1% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024, although the growth rate has decreased compared to earlier months [32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dongyue Group is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - Dongyue Group is a leading enterprise in the fluorosilicone industry, primarily engaged in fluorosilicone chemical business across five segments, including high polymer materials, refrigerants, organic silicon, dichloromethane, PVC, and caustic soda [5][6] - The company experienced a decline in net profit in 2024H1, amounting to 233 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.70%. The revenue for 2021-2024H1 was 15.847 billion yuan, 20.036 billion yuan, 14.554 billion yuan, and 7.285 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of +57.48%, +26.43%, -27.36%, and +1.07% respectively [5] - The company benefits from rising refrigerant prices, with R22's market average price increasing by 56.41% since January 29, 2024, and R32's price rising by 126.87% year-on-year [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 708 million yuan in 2023, with projections of 907 million yuan, 1.476 billion yuan, and 2.012 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [7][11] - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 14.493 billion yuan, with expected growth to 15.940 billion yuan in 2024, 17.979 billion yuan in 2025, and 20.378 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.0%, 12.8%, and 13.3% [7][11] Market Position and Innovation - The company introduced 101 new product grades in 2023, enhancing its competitive edge and market position. It holds a total of 620 authorized patents and has published 127 various standards [6] - Research and development expenditures were approximately 935 million yuan in 2023, accounting for 6.45% of total revenue [6] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 907 million yuan, 1.476 billion yuan, and 2.012 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.52 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 1.16 yuan [6][11] - The estimated PE ratio for 2024 is between 16-18 times, leading to a reasonable value range of 8.32-9.36 yuan, which translates to 9.04-10.17 HKD based on the exchange rate [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1][3]. Core Insights - Hangzhou Bank's profitability remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio steady at 0.76% and a net interest margin stabilizing and recovering. The bank maintains a high level of corporate credit lending [3]. - In Q3 2024, the bank's revenue increased by 0.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 15.1%. For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue grew by 3.9%, and net profit increased by 18.6% [3]. - The annualized ROA for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 0.03 percentage points to 0.72%, while the annualized ROE rose by 0.39 percentage points to 13.51% [3]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved by 0.45 percentage points to 8.76% [3]. - The bank's net interest income in Q3 2024 grew by 11.04% year-on-year, with a calculated net interest margin of 1.29%, up 5 basis points from Q2 2024 [3]. - Total loans increased by 12.8% compared to the end of 2023, with corporate loans rising by 15.8% and personal loans by 7.0% [3]. - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 is 2.8, 3.26, and 3.74 yuan, with net profit growth rates of 18.38%, 15.82%, and 14.53% respectively [3]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) for 2024E is projected at 36,748, with a year-on-year growth of 4.95% [5]. - Net profit (in million yuan) for 2024E is projected at 17,028, with a year-on-year growth of 18.38% [5]. - The average ROE for 2024E is expected to be 16.69% [5]. - The projected PE ratio for 2024E is 5.58, and the PB ratio is 0.84 [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company achieved a successful turnaround in net profit for Q3, with significant growth in its open platform and consumer business. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 14.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.73%. However, it faced a net loss of 344 million yuan compared to a profit of 99 million yuan in the same period last year. The gross profit was 6.007 billion yuan, up 18.17% year-on-year [4][5] - The company has strengthened its position as a national AI leader, with its "Xunfei Spark" model becoming the preferred choice for central state-owned enterprises. The company has undertaken multiple national strategic tasks and has led the industry in the number and amount of model-related project bids [5][9] - The company is actively enhancing its marketing capabilities and has seen a doubling in sales of its AI learning machines, with a significant increase in user satisfaction and market share [7][9] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.525 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%, and a net profit of 56.96 million yuan, up 120.87% year-on-year. The operating cash flow for the quarter was 715 million yuan, a 100.09% increase [4][6] - The company forecasts revenues of 22.622 billion yuan, 26.697 billion yuan, and 32.331 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected revenue growth rate of 15.1% in 2024 [6][11] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 42.4% to 41.2% over the next few years, with net profit margins projected to improve gradually [11][12] Business Performance - The company reported a 44% increase in revenue from its open platform and consumer business, with smart hardware revenue growing by 41% and intelligent automotive business by 49% [4][5] - The sales collection for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 15 billion yuan, a 25% increase from the same period in 2023, indicating healthy cash flow management [8] - The company has established a robust ecosystem for its "Xunfei Spark" model, with a significant increase in the number of developers and partnerships with over 41,500 enterprise clients [5][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the recent decline in power stocks is not justified by pessimistic expectations for electricity prices. The report maintains an optimistic outlook for future electricity prices, suggesting that there will not be significant changes compared to 2024, with only minor declines expected in some provinces [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity generation, with September's thermal power generation up by 8.9% year-on-year, indicating a clear supply-demand imbalance in the thermal power sector [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - Recent performance shows a decline in major power stocks: Huadian International down 4.6%, Huaneng International down 3.6%, and others also experiencing declines, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4% [3]. - The electricity price expectations continue to influence stock prices, but the necessity for pessimistic views on electricity prices is deemed low [3]. Electricity Generation and Supply - In September, the output of raw coal increased by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing to the overall supply-demand dynamics in the thermal power sector [3]. - The report notes that the overall supply of thermal power is evidently insufficient, reinforcing the optimistic outlook for future electricity prices [3]. Market Developments - The inter-provincial electricity spot market commenced formal operations on October 15, which is expected to enhance the reflection of electricity supply and demand and promote the consumption of renewable energy [4]. - The report mentions that during the trial operation from January to August 2024, the utilization rate of renewable energy increased by 1 percentage point, with a significant amount of clean energy being consumed through inter-provincial trading [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on various investment opportunities within the thermal power sector, including companies like Zhejiang Energy, Huaneng International, and others, as well as those involved in renewable energy and nuclear power [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the increase in basic public health service funding standards for 2024 will enhance the growth certainty of the pharmaceutical industry. The per capita subsidy for basic public health services will rise to 94 yuan, and the subsidy for urban and rural residents' basic medical insurance will increase to 670 yuan per person per year. This is expected to generate an additional 359 billion yuan in funding for urban and rural residents' medical insurance, with total income projected to exceed 1.1 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In the week of October 14-20, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, while the SW Pharmaceutical Biotechnology Index increased by 1.04%, ranking 20th among Shenwan's primary industries. The top-performing sectors within biopharmaceuticals were chemical raw materials (+3.0%), chemical preparations (+3.0%), and medical services (+1.2%). The top three individual stock performers were Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical (+57.82%), Micron Technology (+49.18%), and Changshan Pharmaceutical (+39.77%). Conversely, the largest declines were seen in New Industry (-17.03%), Yihuilong (-16.09%), and Yaokang Biological (-15.01%) [5][6]. 2. Financial Projections - The report anticipates that the increase in urban and rural residents' medical insurance funding standards will lead to a projected income of approximately 1.1 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The total basic medical insurance income is expected to reach about 3.5 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 1,138 billion yuan compared to 2023. Additionally, the expected fiscal investment in basic public health services for 2024 is around 1,316 billion yuan, an increase of 61 billion yuan from 2023 [4][5]. 3. Monthly Portfolio Performance - The performance of Haitong's pharmaceutical portfolio for October 2024 shows an average decline of 3.9%, outperforming the overall pharmaceutical index, which fell by 5.9%. The top three performers in the monthly portfolio were Te Bao Biological (+16.1%), Aohua Endoscopy (+2.2%), and Baili Tianheng-U (-0.6%) [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to provide an additional cash return of $180 million over the next three years, with a total return rate of 11.1% anticipated for 2024. The company plans to maintain a 70% dividend payout ratio and return up to $60 million annually through special dividends or buybacks, totaling $180 million [4]. - The company has shown stable order growth in Q3 2024, with a revenue increase of 0.6% to $390 million. Manufacturing revenue grew by 0.2% to $380 million, with a shipment volume increase of 5.7% to 12.9 million pairs, although the average selling price (ASP) decreased by 4.9% to $29.3 [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin and EBIT margin reached a ten-year high in 2023, indicating improved production efficiency and profitability for 2024 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at $1,493 million, with a slight increase to $1,497 million in 2024, followed by $1,563 million in 2025 and $1,640 million in 2026. Year-over-year growth rates are expected to be -8% in 2023, 0% in 2024, 4% in 2025, and 5% in 2026 [5][7]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from $141 million in 2023 to $166 million in 2024, $186 million in 2025, and $205 million in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 20%, 17%, and 12% respectively [5][7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 24.6% in 2023 to 25.3% in 2024, and further to 25.9% by 2026 [5][7]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect since September 9, leading to improved liquidity and significant net inflows from southbound funds [4]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected to be between 10-11 times, with a corresponding fair value range of HKD 15.80 to 17.38 per share [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.885 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.88%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 857 million yuan, up 55.13% year-on-year [5][6] - The growth in performance is attributed to steady increases in grid investment, ongoing construction of the grid, and the delivery of key projects [5][6] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid projects, which are accelerating due to national energy policies [6][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.843 billion yuan, an increase of 8.42% year-on-year, with a net profit of 323 million yuan, up 47.72% year-on-year [6][9] - The comprehensive gross margin for Q3 2024 was 25.58%, an increase of 4.16 percentage points year-on-year [6][9] - The company’s expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 12.52%, an increase of 1.60 percentage points year-on-year [6][9] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.2 billion yuan in 2024, with an expected EPS of 0.88 yuan [7][11] - The anticipated growth in net profit for 2024-2026 is 47.1%, 32.4%, and 20.3% respectively [7][11] - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 25-30X, with a target price range of 22-26.4 yuan [8][11] Industry Context - The ongoing construction of ultra-high voltage projects is expected to drive the company's high-voltage switch business and overall performance growth [8][11] - Recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration are set to accelerate the development of distribution networks, which will further benefit the company [8][11]