www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 需求加速恢复，偿债指标有望继续改善 ——机场行业回顾及展望 联合资信 公用评级三部 |杨婷|张晨 联合资信评估股份有限公司 China Lianhe Credit Rating Co.,Ltd. 一、行业概况 2024 年 1－9 月，民航业国内需求常态化增长、国际需求加速恢复，机场主要 运营指标均超过 2019 年同期水平；东北地区和西部地区旅客恢复率、中部地区货 物恢复率远超行业平均水平。 受益于出入境限制放开、休闲旅游和商务出行需求提升，2023 年，我国机场 客货吞吐量快速恢复，旅客吞吐量恢复至 2019 年的 93.2%，货邮吞吐量恢复至 2019 年的 98.4%；进入 2024 年，国内航空出行需求常态化增长、国际航线加速修复综 合作用下，2024 年前三季度，机场行业综合运营指标同比均较快增长。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------------|----------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the aviation transportation industry, with continuous improvement in operational performance [1]. Core Insights - The aviation transportation industry is experiencing robust demand in both passenger and cargo markets, with domestic routes supporting passenger traffic and international routes showing rapid recovery [2][3]. - In the first nine months of 2024, the total transportation turnover reached 110.66 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, surpassing 2019 levels [2]. - Passenger turnover for the same period was 974.39 billion passenger-kilometers, up 27.5% year-on-year, with domestic routes accounting for 79.67% of the total [2]. - Cargo turnover also saw a significant increase, with a total of 25.66 billion ton-kilometers, reflecting a 27.9% year-on-year growth [3]. Industry Operation Analysis - The passenger market remains strong, with a total of 552 million passengers transported, marking a 19.1% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average ticket price for economy class on domestic routes decreased by 15.9% to 745.5 yuan, indicating increased competition and a balanced supply-demand situation [21]. - The operational efficiency of airlines improved, with a daily aircraft utilization rate of 9.0 hours and a passenger load factor of 83.2%, up 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Corporate Performance Analysis - Major airlines have reported improved financial performance, with most achieving profitability in the first three quarters of 2024 [21]. - Despite increased passenger volume, revenue growth has lagged due to falling average ticket prices, with only China Eastern Airlines and Shenzhen Airlines not returning to profitability [25]. - The cash flow from operating activities remained positive, but significant capital expenditures and debt repayments continue to pressure financing [27]. Debt Burden and Repayment Indicators - The overall debt burden in the aviation sector remains high, with many airlines relying on bank loans for financing [33]. - As of September 2024, the debt-to-asset ratios for most airlines are concentrated between 60% and 90%, indicating a heavy reliance on debt [40]. - The report highlights that short-term debt constitutes over 40% of total debt for several major airlines, reflecting a need for careful management of short-term liabilities [42]. Social Responsibility and Environmental Impact - Major airlines are actively implementing ESG principles, focusing on sustainable development and reducing carbon emissions [31]. - Despite an increase in fuel consumption due to higher capacity, airlines are adopting measures to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions [31].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the securities industry Core Insights - The securities industry experienced fluctuations in stock market indices and trading activity in 2023, with a notable decline in equity financing and a steady increase in bond market issuance [2][3] - In 2024, the stock market indices showed significant volatility, but benefitted from favorable policies leading to a rapid increase in trading volume towards the end of the third quarter [4] - The bond market continued to grow, with the total bond balance reaching 169.04 trillion yuan by September 2024, reflecting an 8.54% increase from the previous year [8] - The overall performance of securities companies was mixed, with a slight increase in revenue but a decline in net profit in 2023, and a further decrease in revenue in the first half of 2024 [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2023, the stock market indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.70% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 13.54% year-on-year [3] - The total number of listed companies increased to 5,363 by the end of September 2024, with a total market capitalization of 97.06 trillion yuan, a 10.66% increase from the previous year [4] - The bond market issuance remained strong, with 71.05 trillion yuan issued in 2023, a 15.46% increase year-on-year [7] Industry Policies - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has implemented various policies to enhance market quality and regulate securities companies, including stricter rules on stock lending and measures to improve the quality of listed companies [19][20] - In 2024, the CSRC has focused on promoting mergers and acquisitions among securities firms to strengthen the industry and support high-quality development [32] Future Trends - The report indicates a continuing trend of concentration in the securities industry, with larger firms gaining a competitive edge through mergers and acquisitions, while smaller firms face challenges in differentiation and growth [32][34] - The regulatory environment remains stringent, with increased scrutiny on compliance and risk management practices among securities firms [35]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment rating for the general financial institutions sector, with a focus on the 3C rating framework assessing operational, financial, and sustainable development capabilities [7][9]. Core Insights - Regulatory policies are increasingly detailed, aiming to guide general financial institutions back to their core businesses while enhancing governance and risk control, which may impose transformation pressures on some institutions [1][2][3]. - The automotive finance sector is experiencing heightened competition due to changes in the automotive industry, particularly between traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, impacting the business scale and profitability of some automotive finance companies [5][11]. - Consumer finance companies are witnessing growth in asset scale, driven by policies promoting consumption recovery, although they face challenges in customer acquisition and profitability differentiation [6][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - General financial institutions include financial leasing, automotive finance, and consumer finance, with regulatory policies aimed at promoting long-term healthy development and improving service quality [1]. - The introduction of new management measures for automotive finance companies emphasizes risk management and governance, enhancing their ability to serve the automotive market [1][2]. Financial Leasing Sector - The financial leasing industry is transitioning from rapid growth to steady development, with a noticeable head effect and varying competitive strengths among companies [4]. - Financial leasing companies are increasing capital to support business expansion, although they face risks related to asset-liability mismatches [4][11]. Automotive Finance Sector - Automotive finance companies primarily support their brand dealers and retail customers, benefiting from group backing but facing intensified competition from banks and other financial entities [5]. - The sector's asset quality remains stable, but there are disparities in non-performing loan levels among companies [5][11]. Consumer Finance Sector - Consumer finance companies are expanding their asset scale, with a significant trend towards online transformation, although they still rely heavily on third-party customer acquisition [6]. - The sector's profitability is under pressure due to declining pricing levels and increased risk asset provisions, necessitating a focus on capital replenishment [6][9]. 3C Rating Framework - The 3C rating framework evaluates entities based on operational capability, financial strength, and sustainable development, providing a comprehensive assessment of credit risk [7][8]. - The report highlights a differentiation in credit ratings among general financial institutions, influenced by their size, governance, and shareholder support [11][14]. Rating Adjustments - In 2024, there were changes in the 3C ratings for three general financial institutions, reflecting shifts in business scale and profitability [16].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the optional consumption industry in 2025, with head enterprises expected to consolidate their credit levels due to competitive advantages [1][46]. Core Insights - In 2024, policy stimuli are expected to significantly boost demand for optional consumer goods, although macroeconomic changes may lead to increased uncertainty in personal income and more cautious consumer spending decisions [1][46]. - The textile manufacturing sector is showing positive trends, while brand apparel is experiencing structural differentiation. The real estate policies are anticipated to release demand for home appliances, and the consumer electronics sector is slowly recovering, with AI and core components being the main investment focus [1][46]. - The overall development of the optional consumption industry is projected to remain stable in 2025, supported by effective consumption promotion policies [1][46]. Industry Overview - The optional consumption products include housing, automobiles, furniture, home appliances, mid-to-high-end apparel, electronic products, and cultural tourism products. The consumption frequency of optional goods is lower than that of essential goods, and they are closely related to macroeconomic conditions [4][1]. - In 2024, the global economic growth is slowing, and personal income faces more uncertainties, leading to cautious public consumption decisions. The average disposable income per capita in China for the first three quarters of 2024 was 30,941 yuan, a real growth of 4.9% year-on-year [3][1]. Subsector Analysis Textile and Apparel Industry - In the first three quarters of 2024, retail sales of clothing and textile products in China showed weak performance, with a retail growth of only 0.2% year-on-year. The textile manufacturing sector, however, is experiencing a recovery in orders and profitability [5][6]. - The export of textile products from China accounted for approximately 30% of global exports, but the focus is shifting towards Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam [5][6]. Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance market in China is becoming saturated, with retail sales growth of only 7.8% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2024. The demand for new appliances is closely tied to the real estate market, which is currently facing a downturn [12][13]. - Domestic home appliance companies are increasingly looking to overseas markets for growth, facing challenges such as trade sanctions and delivery risks [14][12]. Consumer Electronics Industry - The consumer electronics market is showing signs of moderate recovery, with global smartphone shipments increasing by 7.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024. The introduction of AI-enabled products is expected to drive further growth [15][19]. - Companies in the consumer electronics sector are under pressure to invest heavily in AI and core components to maintain competitiveness [46][19]. Policy Analysis - In 2024, the government has implemented various consumption promotion policies, including trade-in programs and subsidies for purchasing new appliances, which are expected to positively impact the optional consumption industry [24][25]. - The government is also focusing on creating new consumption scenarios to stimulate growth across various sectors, including home appliances and electronics [26][25]. Credit Status of Industry Enterprises - As of the first nine months of 2024, there were instances of credit downgrades among enterprises in the optional consumption sector, with one company defaulting on two bonds [29][36]. - The total amount of outstanding bonds in the optional consumption sector is approximately 155.99 billion yuan, with a significant portion maturing between 2025 and 2027, indicating potential repayment pressures [32][36]. Industry Outlook - The optional consumption industry is expected to maintain stability in 2025, with leading enterprises leveraging their competitive advantages to solidify credit levels. The overall industry is projected to develop steadily [46][41].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power and electrical equipment manufacturing industry, suggesting an upward momentum for the sector in 2025 [1][29]. Core Insights - The power and electrical equipment manufacturing industry is experiencing significant growth driven by increased electricity consumption and substantial investments in power generation and grid infrastructure. The new energy sector is becoming the dominant force in new installations, with a notable shift towards clean energy projects [1][3][4]. - The report highlights that the industry is closely linked to national economic development and electricity investment demand, with a steady recovery in electricity consumption observed in 2023 and projected growth in 2024 [4][29]. - The construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects is entering its third round, with ongoing planning and construction of clean energy bases and inter-provincial transmission channels, which are expected to continue driving demand in the sector [1][29]. Industry Overview - In 2023, the total electricity consumption in China reached 9.22 trillion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The growth rate improved quarterly, indicating a robust recovery in demand [4][10]. - The investment in power generation and grid projects has seen significant increases, with power generation investment growing by 37.7% and grid investment by 5.4% in 2023 [8][10]. - The report notes that the new installed capacity for renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, accounted for 79.2% of the total new installations in 2023, emphasizing the shift towards sustainable energy solutions [8][10]. Company Characteristics - The power and electrical equipment manufacturing industry is characterized by a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, leading to intense competition. The competitive landscape is pyramid-shaped, with higher voltage levels presenting stronger technical barriers and advantages for leading companies [15][16]. - Companies in this sector face challenges in negotiating power with upstream and downstream partners, leading to significant capital tied up in accounts receivable and inventory [16][18]. - The diversification of product offerings and strong technical capabilities are crucial for companies to maintain stable profitability and enhance their resilience against market fluctuations [15][19]. Credit Analysis - The bond issuance scale in the industry has increased, with a notable shift from net outflow to net inflow in financing as of 2024. The majority of bond issuers are rated AA, with a significant portion of outstanding bonds held by AA and AAA-rated companies [22][26]. - The report indicates that the industry has experienced fluctuations in net financing since 2020, with a peak in 2020 and a decline in 2021 and 2023, but a recovery is noted in 2024 [23][24]. Future Outlook - The implementation of the "dual carbon" strategy and the anticipated growth in energy demand are expected to support the development of the power equipment manufacturing industry. The report anticipates sustained demand for UHV construction and smart distribution networks [29][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and the transition to a new power system, which will enhance the industry's capacity to integrate renewable energy sources and improve grid reliability [29][36].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the trade industry Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's total import and export trade value reached 32.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports by 4.1% [4] - The export growth rate is significantly influenced by the economic changes in major global economies, while the domestic real estate market continues to decline, leading to a noticeable drop in import growth [4] - The trade structure is improving, with a shift towards high-end manufacturing products, particularly in the machinery and electronics sectors, which accounted for 59.3% of total exports [8] - The report anticipates that the external environment will become increasingly complex and severe in the fourth quarter of 2024, with potential impacts from trade friction and adjustments in the real estate market [22] Summary by Sections 1. Trade Operation Status - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's import and export trade maintained stable growth, with total trade valued at 4.55 trillion USD, a 3.4% increase year-on-year [4] - Exports to ASEAN and other developing economies showed a significantly better trend compared to developed economies like the US and EU, with exports to ASEAN growing by 9.4% [7] - The structure of export products is shifting towards high-end manufacturing, with machinery and electronics exports reaching 11.03 trillion yuan, an 8% increase [8] 2. Commodity Price Trends - In the first three quarters of 2024, international oil prices experienced volatility due to geopolitical factors and supply changes, while steel prices declined due to weak demand from the real estate sector [9][10] - Coal prices have been on a downward trend due to oversupply and weak demand, although there was a slight recovery expected with the onset of winter [13] 3. Industry Policies - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies, which may increase costs for certain exporting enterprises, particularly those with lower efficiency [15] - A joint opinion from various government bodies aims to enhance cooperation between commerce and finance to support high-quality development in cross-border trade and investment [17] 4. Outlook - The report projects that while trade operations have been stable in 2024, the fourth quarter may face challenges due to trade friction and a weak domestic demand environment, which could impact import growth [22]

Industry Overview - The construction industry is highly cyclical and closely tied to economic growth, with downstream demand primarily driven by real estate and infrastructure investment [1][3] - Since 2020, the industry has faced challenges due to real estate market regulation and local government debt policies, leading to slower growth and increased differentiation among enterprises [1] - The industry's liquidity has tightened, with increased funding pressure, declining profitability, and rising bad debt provisions [1] Real Estate Policy Impact - The "Three Red Lines" policy introduced in August 2020 significantly impacted real estate market financing, leading to reduced bank credit growth for real estate developers [5] - Real estate developers' new construction area has been declining since 2020, with negative double-digit growth rates since 2021 [5] - Despite policy support measures, real estate companies continue to face significant funding pressures, with negative loan balance growth since Q3 2023 [5][6] Local Government Debt Impact - The 2023 debt resolution package has restricted new financing for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), affecting new government investment projects [9][11] - Construction industry new contract value declined by 2.85% in 2023, the first negative growth since 2015 [11] - Central enterprises have seen increased market share, while local state-owned enterprises experienced their first negative growth in new contracts [13] Financial Analysis by Ownership Asset Management - Central enterprises have lower downstream funding requirements and stronger bargaining power compared to local SOEs and private enterprises [19][21] - The industry's downstream funding ratio (receivables + inventory + contract assets)/current assets increased from 59.71% in 2019 to 66.47% in 2023 [19][21] Profitability - Industry-wide ROE has fluctuated between 6.20% and 6.86%, with central enterprises maintaining higher profitability than local SOEs and private enterprises [27] - Private enterprises have seen significant profit margin compression, with ROE declining to 2.17% in 2023 [27] Debt and Liquidity - Private enterprises have higher debt capitalisation ratios, increasing from 36.39% in 2019 to 48.05% in 2023 [32] - Central enterprises maintain better short-term debt coverage ratios compared to local SOEs and private enterprises [38] Credit and Asset Impairment - Industry-wide credit impairment losses increased from 0.53 billion yuan in 2019 to 1.76 billion yuan in 2023, with central enterprises showing the highest impairment levels [42] - Asset impairment losses grew from 0.03 billion yuan in 2019 to 0.43 billion yuan in 2023, with local SOEs showing the highest sensitivity to industry downturns [45] Litigation Analysis - Construction industry litigation cases increased significantly since 2021, with private enterprises experiencing the highest growth rates in lawsuits [48] - Private enterprises, primarily engaged in building construction and survey design, have been most affected by the "Three Red Lines" policy [48] Future Outlook - Market pressure on the construction industry is expected to decrease with potential real estate market recovery and local government debt resolution [51] - Industry consolidation is expected to continue, with central enterprises and strong local SOEs gaining more market share [51] - Private enterprises and weaker local SOEs are likely to face increased competitive pressure [51]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit outlook for the toll road industry, citing government support and strong refinancing capabilities as key factors [58] Core Views - The toll road industry is experiencing a slowdown in investment, with highway mileage growth expected to remain low in the coming years [7] - Regional disparities in investment pressure are evident, with some western provinces facing significant construction tasks and investment burdens [10] - Road transport remains the dominant mode for passenger and freight transport in China, although the share of road passenger transport has declined significantly [13] - The industry is shifting towards smart highways and digital transformation, particularly in eastern regions [56] Industry Policy - The "Five-Year Action Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a Transportation Power (2023-2027)" aims to increase the national expressway mileage to approximately 130,000 km by 2027, adding about 11,000 km [3] - REITs have become a significant financing tool for toll road enterprises, with several major REITs issued in recent years [44] - The "Financial Leasing Company Management Measures" have imposed restrictions on financing lease targets, potentially affecting toll road enterprises' financing options [6] Industry Operations - China's expressway mileage reached 183,600 km by the end of 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6% [10] - Road passenger transport accounted for less than 50% of total passenger transport for the first time in 2023, at 49.14% [13] - Road freight transport accounted for 72.45% of total freight transport in 2023, with a slight downward trend expected due to the shift from road to rail and water transport [13] Provincial Toll Road Enterprises - Provincial toll road enterprises dominate their respective regions, with most controlling over 60% of the province's toll road mileage [23] - Eastern provinces such as Shanghai, Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong have high toll revenue per kilometer, exceeding 7 million yuan [25] - Construction costs for new expressways are rising, with Shanghai's cost reaching 635 million yuan per kilometer, while Jiangsu and Guizhou range between 350-400 million yuan per kilometer [25] Financial Risks - The total debt of 23 provincial toll road enterprises reached approximately 8,114.641 billion yuan by June 2024, with a debt capitalization ratio of 63.78% [38] - Short-term debt coverage ratios have weakened slightly, but the industry's strong cash flow generation and ample credit lines provide sufficient debt repayment capacity [40] - Toll revenue coverage of interest expenses improved in 2023, with eastern and central regions generally achieving full coverage, while some western and northeastern regions rely on other business income or government support [47] Data Asset Accounting - Toll road enterprises have begun accounting for data assets, including traffic flow data, vehicle type data, and bridge monitoring data, following the implementation of the "Interim Provisions on Accounting Treatment of Enterprise Data Resources" in 2024 [50] - Data asset accounting is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support digital transformation in the long term [50]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit outlook for the water industry, with low credit risk overall [1]. Core Viewpoints - The water industry is expected to continue growing due to increased investment in water infrastructure, driven by government policies and economic stability [1][7]. - The total investment in national water conservancy construction reached 928.98 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 9.8% increase year-on-year [1][8]. - The water industry is characterized by high entry barriers and stable demand and supply, with a tendency towards regional monopolies and the coexistence of leading companies operating across regions [1][7]. Industry Development Status - The water resources in China are abundant but unevenly distributed, with urban domestic water supply and sewage treatment being significant growth drivers for the industry [2][4]. - The water industry chain includes water extraction, processing, supply, and sewage treatment, with urban water demand influenced by economic growth and population increase [2][3]. Macroeconomic Environment and Policy Guidance - The government has introduced new policies to enhance efficiency, expand capacity, and improve profitability in the water sector [7][9]. - The economic growth rate for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.8%, with fixed asset investment increasing by 3.4% [8]. Industry Competition Landscape - The water industry is stable, with regional monopolies and leading companies coexisting, primarily consisting of state-owned enterprises [14]. - The competition is expected to focus on environmental governance and related sectors, which require significant capital and technical expertise [14]. Industry Investment - Urban water supply investment reached 75.62 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase [15]. - The sewage treatment and recycling investment was 75.81 billion yuan in 2023, up 7.05% from the previous year [16]. Water Price Changes - Water prices in key cities have been adjusted upwards, indicating potential for further increases in the future [17]. - The average sewage treatment price in 36 major cities remained stable at 1.02 yuan per cubic meter, suggesting room for future price adjustments [17]. Financial Performance of Water Enterprises - Water enterprises saw a compound annual growth rate of 4.4% in total revenue from 2021 to 2023, while total profit decreased at a compound annual rate of 16.64% [20]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue for water enterprises was 249.55 billion yuan, a decline of 3.32% year-on-year [20]. Debt Situation of Water Enterprises - The total debt of water enterprises reached 920.72 billion yuan by the end of 2023, reflecting a 14.15% increase from the previous year [30]. - The debt structure is primarily long-term, with long-term debt accounting for 77.39% as of September 2024 [30]. Bond Issuance Situation of Water Enterprises - In the first ten months of 2024, 52 water enterprises issued bonds totaling 120.56 billion yuan, a 30.44% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [42]. - The average issuance interest rate for short-term bonds was 2.08%, down from 2.44% in 2023, indicating a decrease in financing costs [53].