www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2024 年地方 AMC 回顾与展望系列之发债回顾—— 信用风险水平稳定 短期偿债压力较大 联合资信 金融评级 | 梁兰琼 | 卢芮欣 | 陈鸿儒 2024 年注销 1 家地方 AMC，行业主体数量缩减至 59 家。 2023 年以来，行业舆情风险、经营风险多发，共 3 家主体发生评级调 整，行业整体信用水平仍保持稳定。 2024 年 1－10 月，行业发行的长期债券及资产证券化产品规模有所增 长，短期债券发行规模持较上年全年有所下降，发行利率及利差均明显下降 且区间收窄，行业净融资额有所回升。 地方 AMC 债券到期集中在 3 年以内，短期偿债压力较大；有 2 家民营 主体存在债券展期，展期企业 2025 年集中偿债压力很大。 联合资信评估股份有限公司 China Lianhe Credit Rating Co.,Ltd. 一、 行业主体概况 2024 年一家地方 AMC 注销，行业数量缩减至 59 家。 市场参与主体方面，截至 2023 年末，经国家金融监管机构（原银监会、原银 保监会、现国家金融监督管理总局，下同）认可并公布名单的地方 AMC 共 60 ...

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2024 年地方 AMC 回顾与展望系列之 2025 年展望—— 使命担当化风险 业务重塑存挑战 联合资信 金融评级 | 卢芮欣| 陈鸿儒 | 梁兰琼 2024 年以来，行业仍延续"严监管+鼓励展业"的政策基调和"中央+ 地方"的双监管格局，政策鼓励行业更好地发挥金融救助和逆周期调节功能。 《金融资产管理公司不良资产业务管理办法》对地方 AMC 有较大指导 意义，地方 AMC 统一的监管制度有望出台。 随着深化发展，行业在市场供给、处置方式、融资渠道等方面均呈现多 元化的发展趋势。 在行业全面回归主业趋势下，地方 AMC 发展机遇与挑战并存，行业马 太效应仍将延续。 联合资信评估股份有限公司 China Lianhe Credit Rating Co.,Ltd. 一、 行业政策回顾 2024 年以来，行业仍延续"严监管+鼓励展业"的政策基调，继续引导不良资产 管理公司回归主业，并鼓励其更好地发挥金融救助和逆周期调节功能；地方 AMC 监 管规则尚未出台，但新发布的《金融资产管理公司不良资产业务管理办法》对地方 AMC 有较大指导意义。 | --- | --- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating for the region or sector [1][2][3] Core Views - Zhejiang Province has significant regional advantages, well-developed transportation infrastructure, and a prominent port economy, with a continuous net inflow of permanent residents and a high urbanization rate [2][5] - The province's economy and fiscal strength rank among the top in China, with a relatively low government debt burden compared to the national average [2][5] - The industrial structure is dominated by secondary and tertiary industries, with a focus on advanced manufacturing clusters and industrial transformation [2][5] - Local government debt in Zhejiang has been growing, with Hangzhou and Ningbo having relatively lighter debt burdens [2][3] - Urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang have a large number of outstanding bonds, primarily concentrated in the Hangzhou Bay Greater Bay Area, with AA and AA+ ratings being the most common [2][3] Economic and Fiscal Strength of Zhejiang Province - Zhejiang's GDP in 2023 reached 8.2553 trillion yuan, ranking fourth in China, with a growth rate of 6.0%, higher than the national average [10][11] - The province's per capita GDP was 125,000 yuan, ranking sixth nationally [10][11] - The industrial structure is shifting towards tertiary industries, which accounted for 56.1% of GDP in 2023, up from 47.9% in 2013 [11] - Zhejiang is accelerating the construction of "415X" advanced manufacturing clusters, focusing on industries such as new-generation information technology, high-end equipment, and green petrochemicals [15] - The province's general public budget revenue in 2023 was 860.051 billion yuan, ranking third nationally, with a fiscal self-sufficiency rate of 69.6% [18][19] Economic and Fiscal Strength of Prefecture-level Cities in Zhejiang - Hangzhou and Ningbo lead in GDP, with Hangzhou surpassing 2 trillion yuan and Ningbo exceeding 1 trillion yuan in 2023 [32] - The economic strength of prefecture-level cities varies significantly, with Hangzhou Bay Greater Bay Area cities having higher per capita GDP, while cities like Jinhua and Lishui lag behind the national average [32] - Hangzhou and Ningbo also lead in general public budget revenue, with Hangzhou reaching 261.7 billion yuan and Ningbo 178.6 billion yuan in 2023 [35] - Most prefecture-level cities saw a decline in land transfer revenue due to the real estate market adjustment, with Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shaoxing, and Jiaxing experiencing significant drops [38] Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang - As of October 2024, Zhejiang had 457 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds, primarily at the district and county levels, concentrated in the Hangzhou Bay Greater Bay Area [44] - The credit ratings of these enterprises are mainly AA and AA+, with Hangzhou having the highest proportion of AAA-rated enterprises at 23% [46] - In 2023, Zhejiang issued 993 urban investment bonds totaling 766.9 billion yuan, with Hangzhou accounting for over 23% of the issuance [48] - The issuance period of urban investment bonds has lengthened, with 5-year bonds increasing by 27.2 percentage points in 2024 compared to 2023 [49] - The total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang reached 7.68 trillion yuan by the end of 2023, with Hangzhou accounting for 24% of the total [55] Debt and Repayment Capacity of Urban Investment Enterprises - The debt structure of urban investment enterprises is dominated by bank financing, accounting for 58.5% of total debt, while bond financing accounts for 29.7% [55] - The maturity of urban investment bonds is concentrated in 2025 and 2026, with Taizhou having the highest proportion of bonds maturing in 2026 at 47.9% [57] - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio of urban investment enterprises has declined, with Quzhou, Lishui, and Jiaxing having ratios above 0.5, while Zhoushan has the lowest at 0.3 [58] - Financing activities of urban investment enterprises remained positive in 2023, with Quzhou, Jinhua, Jiaxing, and Ningbo seeing growth rates exceeding 30% [59]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Guizhou Province is a crucial hub in the western land-sea new corridor and connects the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area with the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, enhancing its transportation network [2][5][6]. - The economic scale and growth rate of Guizhou Province are below the national average, with a GDP of CNY 20,913.25 billion in 2023, representing a growth rate of 4.9%, which is lower than the national average of 5.2% [10][21]. - The province's economy is primarily driven by the tertiary sector, particularly tourism, which saw a 29.2% increase in visitor numbers and a 41.2% increase in tourism revenue in 2023 [10][12]. - Guizhou's fiscal situation shows a reliance on higher-level subsidies, with a significant government debt burden, ranking 30th and 28th in government debt ratio and liability ratio, respectively [21][33]. Summary by Sections Economic and Fiscal Strength of Guizhou Province - Guizhou's economic development is characterized by a low urbanization rate of 55.94%, which is below the national average of 66.16% [10]. - The province's GDP structure has shifted towards a higher proportion of the tertiary sector, which accounted for 51.2% of the GDP in 2023 [10][12]. - The province's public budget revenue grew rapidly, with a total of CNY 2,078.37 billion in 2023, marking a 10.2% increase [21]. Debt Situation - Guizhou's local government debt is concentrated in the provincial level, Guiyang, and Zunyi, with a total debt balance of CNY 15,124.69 billion in 2023, reflecting a debt ratio of 181.60% [21][37]. - The province has implemented a "package debt reduction" initiative, which has somewhat alleviated overall debt risks [37][41]. City-Level Economic and Fiscal Conditions - Economic strength varies significantly among cities, with Guiyang and Zunyi being the economic centers, accounting for nearly half of the province's total GDP [25][33]. - The fiscal self-sufficiency of cities is low, with most cities relying heavily on subsidies from higher levels of government [33][37]. City Investment and Industry Layout - The report highlights the industrial layout of various cities, with Guiyang focusing on advanced manufacturing and Zunyi on liquor production, while other cities emphasize tourism and health care [29][33]. - Guizhou's investment in infrastructure and key industries is projected to reach CNY 420 billion during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [7]. Debt Repayment Capacity of City Investment Companies - The province's city investment companies are primarily located in Guiyang, Liupanshui, and Zunyi, with a total of 91 companies as of September 2024 [46]. - The debt repayment pressure is significant, especially for companies in Zunyi and other cities, with a large portion of their debt maturing in 2025 [52].

Industry Overview - Chongqing's economy ranks in the middle nationally, with a per capita GDP higher than the national average, and its industrial structure is dominated by the tertiary sector [2] - The Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle holds significant strategic importance, with strong future growth potential [2] - The "One District, Two Groups" spatial layout shows significant differentiation in economic development and industrial structure among districts and counties, with the central urban area and main urban new area accounting for over 75% of Chongqing's total economic output [2] - The transportation infrastructure in Chongqing is well-developed, with significant investments planned during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, including 190 billion yuan for railways and 250 billion yuan for highways [4] Economic and Fiscal Strength - In 2023, Chongqing's GDP reached 3,014.579 billion yuan, ranking 17th nationally, with a growth rate of 6.1%, slightly above the national average [7] - The tertiary sector contributed 54.3% to Chongqing's GDP in 2023, with key industries including electronics manufacturing and automotive manufacturing [8][9] - Chongqing's fiscal revenue showed a recovery in 2023, with general public budget revenue increasing by 16%, ranking third nationally [13] - The local government debt balance in Chongqing reached 1,225.8 billion yuan by the end of 2023, with a debt ratio of 175.28% and a liability ratio of 40.66% [16] Regional Economic and Fiscal Analysis - The central urban area and main urban new area are the core regions of Chongqing's economic development, contributing over 75% of the city's total economic output [17] - The "One District, Two Groups" spatial layout divides Chongqing into 38 administrative districts and counties, with the main urban area focusing on high-tech industries and the "Two Groups" areas relying more on agriculture and tourism [18][19] - In 2023, the central urban area and main urban new area had higher fiscal self-sufficiency rates compared to the "Two Groups" regions, which are more dependent on upper-level subsidies [30][31] Urban Investment Enterprises (UIEs) - Chongqing's UIEs are mainly rated AA and AA+, with AAA-rated UIEs concentrated in the central urban area and main urban new area [45] - In 2023, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds in Chongqing reached 241.525 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 71.937 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in the central urban area and main urban new area [47] - By the end of October 2024, the outstanding urban investment bonds in Chongqing amounted to 645.889 billion yuan, with significant concentrations in districts like Jiangbei, Jiangjin, and Hechuan [49] - The debt burden of UIEs in Chongqing has been increasing, with some districts facing significant repayment pressures in 2025, particularly in Shapingba, Changshou, and Jiangjin districts [53][57]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Shanxi Province has a strong natural resource endowment, primarily focused on coal and related industries, but faces significant pressure for industrial upgrading and structural adjustment due to tightening energy conservation and pollution prevention regulations [2][4] - The economic and fiscal strength of various cities in Shanxi Province shows significant differentiation, with Taiyuan leading in economic and fiscal capabilities [2][20] - The overall debt level of local governments in Shanxi is rising, with Taiyuan's government debt scale significantly higher than other cities, while cities like Xinzhou and Yuncheng are experiencing rapid debt growth [2][20] Economic and Fiscal Strength of Shanxi Province - Shanxi's economy is heavily reliant on coal, with GDP growth slowing in 2023 due to high coal prices and reduced demand in steel and construction [4][10] - The province's GDP in 2023 was approximately 25698.18 billion, with a growth rate of 5.0% [12] - The fixed asset investment growth rate turned negative in 2023, indicating economic pressure [10][12] Debt Situation - In 2023, Shanxi's local government debt rate was 105.9%, ranking 28th nationally, indicating a relatively light overall debt burden [23][20] - The province issued 603 billion in new special bonds in 2023, focusing on infrastructure projects [41][20] - The debt management policy emphasizes a "provincial responsibility, city and county efforts to reduce debt" mechanism, with targeted measures for high-risk areas [43][44] City-Level Economic and Fiscal Strength - Taiyuan's GDP accounted for 21.69% of the province's total in 2023, showcasing its economic dominance [30] - The fiscal strength of cities varies significantly, with Taiyuan's budget revenue far exceeding that of other cities [35][34] - In 2023, the general public budget revenue for Taiyuan was 3479.37 billion, while other cities struggled with declining revenues [21][35] City Investment and Debt Management - The report highlights that Shanxi's cities are increasingly reliant on upper-level subsidies to support their fiscal strength, with over 38.99% of comprehensive financial capacity coming from these subsidies in 2023 [20][38] - The debt levels of many cities remain below 100%, indicating a cautious approach to debt management [20][34] - The province's cities are encouraged to actively resolve existing debt through various strategies, including the issuance of special bonds [43][41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry or city investment enterprises in Henan Province Core Insights - The real estate industry has entered a downward trend since 2021, with various factors contributing to this decline. Despite some recovery in land markets in first-tier and hot cities, most regions continue to see a decrease in land transfer fees, putting pressure on government finances. The central bank and local governments have implemented easing policies to temporarily boost demand, but a fundamental turnaround in the industry is not expected soon [2][4][6] - In Henan Province, many cities have seen a continuous decline in land transfer fees, particularly in areas heavily reliant on land sales. This trend is expected to worsen in the first half of 2024, impacting local government finances significantly [2][3][20] - The downward trend in the real estate sector is expected to increase liquidity pressure on city investment enterprises, as their cash flow is affected by reduced regional financial capacity and increased competition for land acquisition [3][4][34] Summary by Sections 1. National Real Estate Industry Development and Land Transfer Situation - The real estate sector's trajectory is closely linked to economic development and government finances. In 2023, various policies aimed at optimizing the real estate market have been implemented, but the industry continues to face significant downward pressure [6][7] - Nationally, land transfer fees decreased by 13.2% in 2023, with most provinces experiencing declines, particularly in regions like Guangxi and Liaoning, where decreases exceeded 30% [16][17] 2. Impact of Real Estate Downturn on Local Government Finances in Henan - The decline in the real estate market has led to reduced land transfer revenues, significantly affecting local government finances, especially in areas with high land dependency [19][20] - In 2023, Henan's land transfer fees amounted to 146.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.64% compared to 2022, with a high land auction failure rate of 26.52% [21][22] 3. Impact of Real Estate Downturn on City Investment Enterprises' Credit Risk - The downturn in the real estate sector has led to increased liquidity pressure on city investment enterprises in Henan, as their cash flow is squeezed by reduced land sales and increased competition for land acquisition [34][51] - The report highlights that city investment enterprises in regions like Zhengzhou and Luoyang face significant cash flow pressures due to high land acquisition ratios, which have increased in 2024 [34][38] - The overall debt burden of city investment enterprises in Henan has increased, with areas like Zhengzhou and Kaifeng showing particularly high debt ratios, indicating a growing credit risk [42][43]

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 地产市场低迷和地方化债背景下，建筑施工行业持续分化 --建筑施工企业信用风险研究 联合资信 公用评级一部 | 李 颖 高志杰 韩子祺 建筑施工行业作为强周期行业，行业景气度与经济增速高度相关，行业下游发展状况对建 筑施工行业产生较大影响。在 2020 年以来的房地产市场调控政策和地方政府化债政策影响下， 建筑施工行业增长乏力，行业内部分化愈加明显，资质较差企业持续爆发信用风险。 在行业流动性趋紧的背景下，2019－2023 年，建筑施工企业整体垫资压力进一步加大，盈 利指标呈下降趋势，行业整体债务负担较重，坏账计提规模明显提升，企业涉诉规模快速增长； 行业内部分化明显，市场订单持续向竞争实力强的中央企业集中，民营企业处于弱势地位，垫资 规模相对较高，盈利状况持续弱化，坏账计提充分性存疑，需关注因坏账计提不充分导致后续风 险集中释放问题。 未来，随着房地产市场回稳复苏，地方政府财政压力缓解，建筑施工行业市场压力将有所下 降，但行业内部分化将持续进行，市场集中度继续提升，拥有良好的融资能力和较高资质壁垒的 中央企业和实力很强的地方国企优势更加突出，实力较弱的地方国 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The optional consumption industry is expected to maintain a stable development trend in 2025, with leading companies consolidating their credit levels due to competitive advantages [1] Core Viewpoints - Policy stimulus in 2024 significantly boosted demand for optional consumer goods, but macroeconomic uncertainties led to more cautious consumer decisions [1] - Intensified competition within the industry has squeezed profit margins, increasing operational pressure on smaller firms and highlighting credit risks [1] - The textile manufacturing sector shows positive momentum, while brand apparel experiences structural differentiation [1] - Real estate policies are expected to release demand for home appliances, and consumer electronics demand is slowly recovering, with AI and core components being key investment areas [1] Industry Overview - In 2024, global economic growth slowed, and geopolitical risks increased, leading to more cautious consumer behavior [3] - China's per capita disposable income in the first three quarters of 2024 was 30,941 yuan, a real increase of 4.9% year-on-year, while per capita consumption expenditure was 20,631 yuan, a real increase of 5.3% [3] - The government introduced policies such as trade-in programs and consumption subsidies to stimulate domestic demand [3] - The average consumption propensity in China was 66.7% in the first three quarters of 2024, slightly higher than 66.4% in the same period of 2023 [3] Textile and Apparel Industry - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's retail sales grew by 3.3%, while apparel and footwear retail sales increased by only 0.2%, indicating weaker performance compared to the overall consumer market [5] - Textile manufacturing companies saw improved profitability due to overseas brands entering a restocking cycle, with orders growing steadily since early 2024 [6] - Brand apparel companies faced weaker profitability, with sportswear brands outperforming casual fashion brands [7] - Key companies like Anta Sports, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees reported revenue growth, while casual fashion brands like Semir and Peacebird struggled [7] Home Appliance Industry - China's home appliance market is nearing saturation, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment growing by 7.80% in the first ten months of 2024, but overall growth remains limited [12] - The real estate market downturn has reduced demand for new home appliances, with residential sales area decreasing by 17.70% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2024 [13] - Overseas markets have become a key growth area for home appliance companies, with China accounting for 82.7% of global air conditioner production capacity, 57.6% of refrigerator production capacity, and 52% of washing machine production capacity [14] Consumer Electronics Industry - Global and Chinese consumer electronics markets showed moderate recovery in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by new product releases and AI-powered devices [15] - Global smartphone shipments increased by 7.8%, 6.5%, and 4.0% in the first three quarters of 2024, while foldable phone shipments in China grew by 83%, 104.6%, and 13.6% respectively [15] - AI technology is becoming a key driver for consumer electronics upgrades, with AI-powered smartphones and PCs gaining traction [17] - Emerging markets like Africa and the Middle East show potential for structural improvement in consumer electronics demand [23] Industry Policies - In 2024, the government introduced policies to promote consumption, including trade-in programs for home appliances, furniture, and electronics, as well as subsidies for green and smart home appliances [24][25] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued measures to create new consumption scenarios, focusing on tourism, entertainment, sports, and home improvement [26] - Real estate policies were adjusted to support home purchases, including tax reductions and relaxed mortgage requirements, which are expected to boost demand for home appliances and furniture [27] Corporate Credit Status - In the first three quarters of 2024, one company in the optional consumption industry defaulted on two bonds, and five companies experienced credit rating downgrades [29] - New bond issuances in the industry totaled 53 issues, raising 46.191 billion yuan, with interest rates up to 5.00% [30] - Outstanding bonds in the industry amounted to 155.990 billion yuan, with a significant portion maturing between 2025 and 2027, posing potential repayment pressure [32] Industry Outlook - In 2025, the optional consumption industry is expected to maintain stable development, with leading companies consolidating their credit levels [1] - Companies with strong supply chain management, technological innovation, and brand advantages are likely to outperform, while those lacking these capabilities may face challenges [42] - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to continue its positive trend, with leading companies expanding overseas production capacity [44] - Home appliance and furniture demand may stabilize with real estate policy support, while consumer electronics companies need to invest in AI and core components to maintain competitiveness [46]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The PV industry is a strategic emerging industry in China with international competitive advantages, but it is influenced by national industrial policies, subsidy policies, and macroeconomic conditions, exhibiting cyclical characteristics [1][3] - Global PV installed capacity is expected to grow significantly, with China leading in manufacturing scale, technological level, and market expansion [4][5] - The industry faces challenges such as overcapacity, price declines, and intensified competition, but long-term prospects remain positive due to global energy transition trends [1][30] Industry Overview - China's PV industry has formed a competitive advantage globally, with rapid growth in installed capacity, reaching 216.88GW in 2023, a 148% year-on-year increase [4] - The global PV market is expected to grow, with BNEF predicting 592GW of new installations in 2024, a 33% increase from 2023 [5] - China's energy consumption is still dominated by traditional energy sources, leaving significant room for the development of clean energy like PV [3][4] Supply Chain Analysis Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices have dropped significantly, falling over 70% in 2023 and further declining in 2024, with prices below cash costs for many companies [8][9] - China's polysilicon production capacity reached 240.8 million tons in 2023, with a 75.9% year-on-year increase in effective capacity [12] - The polysilicon sector is expected to be the first to undergo capacity consolidation due to price pressures and high production costs [14] Solar Cells - TopCon technology dominates the solar cell market, with N-type cells accounting for 58% of total capacity in 2023 [15][16] - China's solar cell production has grown significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.45% from 2012 to 2023 [15] - The industry faces profitability challenges, with many companies experiencing losses and reduced operating rates [17][18] PV Modules - Global module production capacity reached 1103GW in 2023, with China accounting for 83.4% of global capacity [21] - The module market is highly competitive, with oversupply and low profitability, especially for smaller players [21][22] - Large-size and N-type modules are gaining market share, driving industry consolidation [21] Overseas Demand and Layout - PV exports from China show a trend of "price reduction and volume increase," with Asia becoming the largest export market in 2024 [23] - Chinese PV companies are expanding overseas production capacity, particularly in Southeast Asia and the US, to mitigate trade barriers and enhance competitiveness [23][25] - The US market remains highly profitable but faces significant trade barriers, leading Chinese companies to invest in local production [25][26] - The Middle East is emerging as a key market, with Chinese companies investing in new production facilities to meet growing demand [27] Summary and Outlook - In the short to medium term, industry competition will intensify, with vertical integration and consolidation expected [30][31] - Leading companies with strong R&D capabilities and sufficient cash reserves are better positioned to navigate the industry cycle [30][31] - Long-term growth prospects remain strong, driven by global energy transition and supportive policies, with PV expected to become the largest energy source by 2027 [32][33]