Industry Overview - The cement industry in China has experienced four cycles since 1992: 1992-1998, 1999-2005, 2006-2015, and 2016-present [2] - The demand side and fuel side of the cement industry exhibit strong cyclicality, while the supply side shows passive cyclicality [2] - The cyclical characteristics of the cement industry have become more pronounced as the industry matures [2] - The current downturn cycle is expected to end with improvements in supply-demand balance, relying on supply-side measures such as staggered production, capacity reduction, and environmental protection policies [2] Historical Development - The cement industry in China has not yet completed a full lifecycle, with stages including introduction (1978-1991), rapid growth (1992-2015), and platform period (2016-present) [3] - Cement demand and dry-process capacity grew rapidly during the high-speed economic growth period, driven by real estate and infrastructure investments [3] - Since 2021, the cement industry may have entered a decline phase due to the deep adjustment of the real estate sector [3] Cycle Analysis 1992-1998 Cycle - Cement demand grew rapidly with an 11% CAGR, but the growth rate was "high in the front and low in the back" [7] - The industry was in a state of supply shortage, with small vertical kilns and wet-process cement plants dominating the market [7] 1999-2005 Cycle - Cement demand grew at a 13% CAGR, driven by real estate investment, reaching 862 million tons in 2003 [12] - Dry-process capacity expanded rapidly, leading to structural overcapacity by the end of the cycle [16] - Cement prices showed seasonal fluctuations but generally increased during the upswing [12] 2006-2015 Cycle - Cement demand reached a historical peak, driven by real estate and infrastructure investments [17] - The "Four Trillion" stimulus plan and industrial policies led to a surge in dry-process cement investment [19] - Industry concentration increased, with the top 10 companies accounting for 52.65% of clinker capacity by 2015 [30] 2016-Present Cycle - Cement demand fluctuated at a high level during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, supported by shantytown renovation and infrastructure investment [34] - Supply-side reforms and staggered production helped control excess capacity, leading to five consecutive years of profit growth [34] - Since 2021, cement demand has declined due to falling real estate investment, leading to renewed supply-demand imbalances [47] Key Players - The top five cement companies in China are China National Building Material (CNBM), Anhui Conch Cement, Tangshan Jidong Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Hongshi Group, accounting for 46.26% of total clinker capacity [57] - CNBM and Conch Cement are national players, while the other three are regional players with some overseas operations [57] - Conch Cement has the highest clinker capacity utilization rate at 81%, followed by Hongshi Group at 90% [73] Future Outlook - The current downturn cycle is expected to end with improvements in supply-demand balance, relying on supply-side measures [85] - Conservative estimates suggest cement demand will be 16-18 billion tons, while optimistic estimates suggest 18-20 billion tons [88] - To achieve supply-demand balance, the industry may need to reduce clinker capacity by 0.90-4.33 billion tons [89] - Companies with large capacity, high operational efficiency, strong resource endowments, low debt, diversified development, and strong shareholders are expected to weather the cycle [94] Key Metrics - Cement industry profits reached a historical high of 186.7 billion yuan in 2019 but fell to 31.03 billion yuan in 2023 [51] - The clinker capacity utilization rate dropped to a historical low of 59% in 2023 [48] - Cement prices fell below 300 yuan/ton in some regions due to weak demand and intense competition [48]

Industry Overview - Hunan Province has significant regional and resource advantages, with a continuous economic growth trend and an optimized industrial structure, presenting a "tertiary-secondary-primary" economic development pattern [2] - The tertiary industry is the main driver of economic growth in Hunan, with the province's GDP ranking in the upper-middle range nationally and per capita GDP in the middle range [6] - The urbanization rate in Hunan is below the national average, and fixed asset investment growth turned negative in 2023 [6] Economic and Fiscal Strength - Hunan's general public budget revenue ranks in the middle nationally, with a low fiscal self-sufficiency rate and declining government fund revenue [24] - The province's government debt scale grew rapidly by the end of 2023, with a relatively high debt ratio ranking low nationally [24] - The economic and fiscal strength of cities and prefectures in Hunan varies significantly, with Changsha, the provincial capital, having a clear advantage over others [29] Debt and Financial Risks - The debt balance of local governments in Hunan's cities and prefectures continued to grow by the end of 2023, with some areas experiencing significant increases [3] - Xiangtan City saw the largest increase in government debt ratio due to substantial debt resolution policy support [3] - Hunan has repeatedly proposed implementing a comprehensive debt resolution plan and strengthening debt risk monitoring [3] Urban Investment Enterprises - Hunan has a large number of urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds, mainly distributed in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and northern Hunan regions [62] - The bond issuance scale of urban investment enterprises in Hunan increased by 15.83% year-on-year in 2023, with Changsha, Changde, and Zhuzhou being the main issuers [65] - The net financing scale of bonds issued by urban investment enterprises in most cities and prefectures in Hunan decreased in 2023, with Xiangtan City experiencing a significant net outflow [66] Debt Repayment Capacity - By the end of 2023, the coverage ratio of monetary funds to short-term debt of urban investment enterprises in Hunan was generally weak, indicating significant short-term liquidity pressure [72] - Changsha's urban investment enterprises have the largest debt scale in Hunan, with a substantial amount of bonds maturing in 2025, posing significant repayment pressure [74] - The overall financing pace of urban investment enterprises in Hunan slowed down in 2023, with a 29.94% year-on-year decrease in net cash inflow from financing activities [77]

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－上海篇 联合资信 公用评级一部 |唐立倩|丁立飞|董思茵|曹洁 报告概要 ⚫ 上海市是我国的经济、金融、贸易、航运、科技创新中心，经济实力及城市竞争力持续 居于全国前列。2023 年，上海市 GDP 超四万亿元，规模居全国城市首位；人均 GDP 达 19.03 万元，在省级行政区中仅次于北京居第二位；上海市产业结构持续优化，形成了以 现代服务业为主体、战略性新兴产业为引领、先进制造业为支撑的现代产业体系。上海 市财政实力雄厚，财政收入质量高，自给能力强。上海市是国内首批启动隐性债务清零 的试点城市，政府债务负担轻，整体偿债能力强。 ⚫ 从上海市下辖区层面看，上海市各区经济实力分化较大，浦东新区经济总量超万亿，处 于绝对领先地位，黄浦区人均 GDP 居于首位；上海市各区产业均衡发展，依据资源禀赋 和特色优势，推动产业结构调整和科技创新政策落地，促进城市整体竞争力进一步提升。 2023 年，上海市各区一般公共预算收入规模差距较大，浦东新区最强；各区收入质量均 较高。截至 2023 年底，上海市各区整体政府债务余额增速不高，各区负 ...

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 湖北省城投企业 3C 研究 联合资信 公用评级三部 |黄旭明 一、湖北省经济及财政实力 湖北省交通地位重要，公路、水运发达，水资源、矿产资源和科教资源丰富，2023 年经济总量与人均 GDP 分别位居全国第 7 位和第 9 位。从财政实力看，湖北省一般 公共预算收入规模位居全国第 11 位，财政自给率较低；政府性基金收入虽小幅增长， 但土地使用权出让金对政府性基金收入贡献率持续走低。湖北省综合财力和政府债务 负担处于全国中上游水平。 二、湖北省各地市（州）经济及财政实力 湖北省下辖 12 个地级市、1 个自治州、3 个省直辖县级市和 1 个林区。从区域发 展水平看，湖北省各地市（州）可以分为三个梯队：第一梯队为武汉市，2023 年武汉 市 GDP 占全省经济总量的 35.86%，其经济实力明显高于其他地区；第二梯队为襄阳 市和宜昌市，是湖北省大力发展的两个省级副中心城市；第三梯队为其余各地市（州）， 其经济实力明显低于上述三个城市。 从财政实力看，2023 年，武汉市一般公共预算收入远大于省内其他地市，襄阳 市、宜昌市一般公共预算收入介于 200 亿元与 30 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but it highlights the challenges and opportunities for urban investment (城投) enterprises in the context of strict regulatory environments and market complexities [1][49] Core Views - Urban investment enterprises play a crucial role in urbanization and infrastructure development but face challenges such as local government debt risks [1] - Since July 2023, the central government has introduced a series of debt resolution policies, leading to controlled growth in debt scale and increased difficulty in new debt issuance [1][5] - Urban investment enterprises are accelerating market-oriented transformation and building industrial platforms to meet regulatory requirements and break through financing restrictions [1][4] - The report identifies four types of platforms that have successfully issued new bonds: state-owned capital holding platforms, industrial integration platforms, diversified business platforms, and urban operation platforms [42][43][47][48] Policy Environment and Regulatory Standards - The central government has introduced a "package debt resolution plan" since July 2023, with policies focusing on fiscal, financial, and regulatory measures to manage local government debt risks [5][49] - Key policies include the "35号文" and "47号文," which classify local state-owned enterprises into three categories and impose differentiated financing restrictions based on regional risk levels [5] - High-risk provinces face stricter financing restrictions, while non-high-risk provinces have more flexibility in issuing new bonds [5] Sample Analysis of New Bond Issuance - From October 2023 to September 2024, 176 urban investment enterprises issued 313 new bonds totaling 2563.29 billion yuan, accounting for 6.61% of total urban investment bond issuance during the same period [9] - The majority of new bond issuances were concentrated in non-high-risk provinces, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai leading in terms of issuance volume [11][24] - Private placement bonds and medium-term notes were the most common types of new bonds issued, with private placement bonds accounting for 25.90% of total issuance [23] Characteristics of New Bond Issuers - New bond issuers are diverse, including state-owned capital holding platforms, industrial integration platforms, diversified business platforms, and urban operation platforms [42][43][47][48] - High-rated issuers (AAA and AA+) dominate the new bond market, with 61 AAA-rated issuers and 75 AA+-rated issuers among the 176 sample enterprises [12] - Regional differentiation is evident, with non-high-risk provinces like Guangdong and Zhejiang leading in new bond issuance, while high-risk provinces like Chongqing and Tianjin also saw some issuances [11][19] Future Outlook - Urban investment enterprises must focus on debt risk management, optimize debt structures, and accelerate market-oriented transformation to enhance profitability and risk resilience [49][50] - The central government will continue to strengthen local government debt management, and urban investment enterprises will face strict restrictions on new bond issuance [50] - As debt resolution progresses and urban investment enterprises deepen their transformation, it is expected that local state-owned enterprises will have more opportunities to expand financing channels and drive regional economic development [50]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the office market in Qingdao Core Insights - The Qingdao office market is experiencing a significant increase in supply, with a peak of 1.7557 million square meters in 2021, followed by a decline in new supply in 2022 and 2023 [3][4] - The demand structure for office space in Qingdao remains stable, with major industries including professional services, technology, finance, real estate, and logistics [5] - The vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings in Qingdao has consistently been higher than that of major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, averaging over 20% in most years [6][7] - Rental prices for Grade A office buildings have been on a downward trend since 2016, currently at 104.02 yuan per square meter per month, the lowest since 2012 [8] Regional Environment Analysis - From 2008 to 2023, Qingdao's GDP growth has mirrored national trends, with an average annual growth rate of 11.11% from 2008 to 2015, followed by a slowdown due to external economic conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The population growth rate in Qingdao has faced pressure, with a range of 0.28% to 2.53% from 2008 to 2023, and a notable decline in the younger population segment [2] Historical Operation of the Office Market - The supply of Grade A office buildings in Qingdao saw limited growth from 2009 to 2015, with a significant increase in 2021, followed by a decrease in subsequent years [3][4] - The net absorption of office space in 2023 was approximately 158,000 square meters, with over 50,000 square meters attributed to state-owned enterprises [5] Future Outlook - The external environment indicates challenges for population and economic growth, with the 14th Five-Year Plan targeting a GDP growth rate of around 7% and a population of 11 million by 2025 [9] - Demand for office space is expected to improve due to policy support and urban development initiatives, but the influx of new projects may increase vacancy rates and pressure rental prices [10] - The report anticipates an additional 420,000 square meters of new supply in the next four years, primarily in the CBD areas of Qingdao [10][11]

各位投资者晚上好我是今天这个大拐点大机遇拥抱科技新动能的这个主持人赵良璧那么我们今天呢请来我们科技组的四位这个首席然后这个给大家分享一下这个我们对科技板块啊应该说下一阶段的观点那么呢 首先我们这个科技板块的一致的一个想法或者一致的一个观点就是我们觉得未来就是一个科技的一个长流势我们的观点非常明确就是看好科技科技的一个长流势那么我们呢会针对这个应该说国际环境的一个大的一个变化 那么中国也面临一个大的机遇那么在这个时点呢我们觉得新旧动能转换的关键时点科技应该说它无论是从这个产业的发展也好还是说本身产业带动二级市场的表现来说我们这都是非常就是明确看多的那么我们今天主要是从这个 上中下三个就是科技板块上中下游三个产业链就是全产业链给大家系统的说一下或者分享一下我们对整个科技板块上中下游的重要的这些纸板块的观点那么首先是请我们的电子首席高峰老师分享一下电子观点各位领导晚上好 欢迎各位收听我们的大观点大局系列的电话会议解读那么我是电子组的首席评论师高峰那么今天由我来解读一下关于我们整个大观点大局系列中电子股的一个表现的一个背后逻辑以及近期包括三级爆之后我们的一些观点 那么首先呢我们先看一下整个电子板块呢那么自从在这一波这 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 联合资信评估股份有限公司 hina Lianhe Credit Rating Co.,Ltd. 一、信用增进行业基本情况 1. 信用增进行业概述 我国的信用增进行业相对于融资担保行业起步较晚。2009年,全国首家信 用增进公司 -- 中债信用增进投资股份有限公司(以下简称"中债增进")组建 成立,是信用增进行业起始的重要一步。为解决企业主体信用级别较低,债券发 行困难的问题,国内多家省级信用增进公司陆续创设或改组产生,业务范围以债 券增信为主,展业区域性特点明显、股东背景为地方大型国有平台企业。2016年, 国内第一家省级信用增进公司 -- 晋商信用增进股份有限公司成立,随后,四川 省、陕西省、山东省和河南省等地的信用增进公司也陆续成立。随着债券市场信 用风险攀升,成立较早的信用增进公司已在风险筛选分担、增强投资者认可度等 方面发挥了重要作用。 目前,国内的信用增进公司见表 1,截至 2024年 9 月末,已展业 ...

Industry Overview - The number of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises has increased, but the proportion of loss-making enterprises has also risen, indicating deepening industry differentiation [1][3] - Revenue and total profits of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises have shown a narrowing year-on-year decline, with policy stabilization contributing to this trend [3] - The aging population in China has reached 217 million by the end of 2023, driving demand for healthcare services [3] - Total medical visits in 2023 reached 6.407 billion, a 9.38% year-on-year increase, reflecting steady growth in healthcare consumption [3] Financial Performance - In 2023, pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises reported revenue of 2.52057 trillion yuan, a 3.40% year-on-year decline, and total profits of 256.01 billion yuan, a 17.50% year-on-year decline [5] - From January to August 2024, revenue was 1.60372 trillion yuan, a 0.50% year-on-year decline, and total profits were 220.4 billion yuan, a 0.30% year-on-year decline, showing a significant narrowing of the decline [5] - Gross profit margins of sample pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises have been declining but remain relatively high, with gross profit margins of 57.11% in 2021, 55.11% in 2022, and 54.06% in 2023 [8] - R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue have been increasing, reaching 10.32% in the first half of 2024, reflecting a strong focus on innovation [8] Policy Impact - The pharmaceutical industry is highly sensitive to policy changes, with reforms in healthcare, medical insurance, and pharmaceuticals driving the industry [11][12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes innovation in drug development, high-end formulation production, and the reform and development of traditional Chinese medicine [12] - Volume-based procurement (VBP) policies have led to significant price reductions, with average price cuts ranging from 48% to 58% across different rounds of VBP [16][17] - The 2023 National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) included 126 new drugs, with an average price reduction of 61.7% during negotiations [34] Innovation and R&D - R&D investment in the pharmaceutical industry has been increasing, with R&D expenditure reaching 3.3278 trillion yuan in 2023, an 8.1% year-on-year increase [35] - In 2023, there were 1,310 applications for Class 1 innovative drugs, a 33.81% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in chemical drugs (35.50%) and biological products (32.20%) [37] - The focus of new drug development remains on oncology, with over 50% of new drug applications targeting this area, followed by digestive and metabolic diseases, infections, and nervous system disorders [38] Credit and Bond Market - In 2023, pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises issued bonds totaling 88.245 billion yuan, a 2.61% year-on-year decrease, while bond repayments totaled 96.699 billion yuan, a 2.90% year-on-year decrease [23] - From January to September 2024, net financing in the bond market turned positive, with 87 bonds issued totaling 61.364 billion yuan and repayments of 51.739 billion yuan [23] - The majority of bond issuers are rated AA*, with AAA-rated enterprises accounting for 30.70% of total outstanding bonds and AA*-rated enterprises accounting for 40.60% [24] Industry Outlook - Domestic pharmaceutical demand is expected to continue growing, supported by the sustainability of medical insurance fund payments [33] - Cost control will remain a key policy focus, with VBP price reductions expected to become more moderate, potentially moving away from a sole focus on the lowest price [34] - Innovation drugs are expected to dominate R&D efforts, with a shift towards differentiated development to avoid redundant investments in similar targets [35][38] - Medical anti-corruption efforts are expected to promote healthier industry development, creating a more favorable business environment for high-quality pharmaceutical enterprises [39][41]

好的各位下午好这次呢我们有幸邀请到联合水屋的董秘徐总来参加我们这次三级外的业绩交流在前三季度市场严峻市场严峻考验的情况之下公司前三季度呢依然保持了良好的一个业绩的一个成绩首先呢我们请徐总对公司前三季度的一个经营情况做一个介绍徐总谢谢啊向总大家大家早上好 呃那呃我先简单说一下我们那个三级度准备的上半年包括三级度的准备的情况吧后面看看大家有些什么样的问题我们针对现在在在讨论讨论那么从收入啊跟经济用来看呢昨天晚上也是那个三级报有纪录出来那么从尤其从最近的情况呢我们还是比去年同期啊还是有百分之二十多的增长那也是我们一直尤其从今年开始把各个各个那个 周期来看 一季报 大年报 三季报我们基本上都维持这么一个二十多一个比例的增长然后收入大致是持平 然后三季度还好一点 前三季度略有一点下降这也是跟现在很多一个市场一个宏观情况包括企业 其他我们商业的工厂那边有关但是本身来说我们还是相对比较稳定的而且三季度陆续的已经有一些恢复 包括我们也可以看到我们的OE其实也是不断的在跟跟去年相比也好前三个季度上也是增长那么这个是从数据上面提升一个情况那么从我们经营情况来看从整个方面虽然说营业收入前三季度略有一点 下降但是其实主要的原因不是在 ...