Revenue and Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal revenue from January to April decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, improving from a previous decline of 1.1%[1] - Public fiscal expenditure increased by 4.6% year-on-year, up from 4.2% previously[1] - Government fund revenue fell by 6.7% year-on-year, an improvement from a 11.0% decline[1] - Government fund expenditure surged by 17.7% year-on-year, compared to 11.1% previously[1] Government Fund Details - Total government fund revenue reached 12,586 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue at 9,340 billion yuan, down 11.4%[1] - Government fund expenditure totaled 26,136 billion yuan, up 17.7% year-on-year, with land use rights expenditure at 13,647 billion yuan, down 8.4%[1] Fiscal Structure Insights - Total public fiscal expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, with central government expenditure accounting for 13.1% (up from 9.0%) and local government expenditure at 86.9% (up from 3.9%)[2] - Debt interest payments increased by 11.0% year-on-year, while social security and employment expenditures rose by 8.5%[2] Revenue Composition - Total public fiscal revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, with central revenue at 42.1% (down 3.8%) and local revenue at 57.9% (up 2.2%)[3] - Tax revenue constituted 81.3% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%[3] - Personal income tax increased by 7.4% year-on-year, while corporate income tax decreased by 3.1%[3] Investment and Risk Considerations - The acceleration in government fund expenditure and a year-on-year increase of 20.9% in local government bond balances indicate a proactive fiscal stance[4] - Risks include the potential for intensified de-globalization and changes in policy rhythm[5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [7] Core Insights - Samsung Electronics is developing a hybrid CXL module that combines NAND flash memory, aiming for commercialization by 2027 [1][28] - The global DRAM market size in Q1 2025 grew by 42.5% year-on-year to $26.729 billion, driven by strong demand from AI servers and a recovery in PC and mobile demand [2][28] - HBM4 production is imminent, with significant improvements in speed and power efficiency compared to HBM3E, expected to boost demand in AI and high-performance computing markets [3][28] - There is a tightening supply of LPDDR4X resources, leading to significant price increases in the spot market due to production cuts by DRAM manufacturers [4][29] Summary by Sections NAND - Samsung is developing a hybrid CXL module that integrates NAND flash memory, with a target for commercialization in 2027. Recent spot prices for 22 NAND products showed an average fluctuation of 0.64% [1][28] DRAM - The DRAM market saw a 42.5% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, reaching $26.729 billion, despite an 8.5% quarter-on-quarter decline. The demand is supported by AI server needs and a recovery in PC and mobile sectors [2][28] HBM - HBM4 is set for mass production, featuring a 60% increase in data transfer speed and a 30% reduction in power consumption compared to HBM3E. The number of TSV interfaces has doubled, and the capacity per DRAM has increased from 24Gb to 32Gb [3][28] Market Dynamics - The LPDDR4X market is experiencing supply constraints due to production cuts, resulting in significant price increases. The long-term outlook suggests continued tight supply due to reduced production capacity [4][29] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the HBM industry chain and the semiconductor cycle recovery, recommending stocks such as Saiteng Co., Yishitong, and Dongxin Co. [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [4] Core Viewpoints - In April, China's total retail sales reached 3.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, indicating a slight decrease in growth rate compared to the previous month [1] - The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles amounted to 3.35 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year, reflecting the resilience of China's industrial supply chain and the vast potential of the domestic market [1] - E-commerce penetration is slowing, while offline convenience stores and specialty stores are performing well, with retail sales growth of 9.1% for convenience stores and 6.4% for specialty stores in the first four months [2] - The consumption upgrade policy is showing effects, particularly in the gold and jewelry sector, which saw a significant year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April [3] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In April, the retail sales of essential goods such as grain and oil increased by 14.0%, while optional consumption categories showed mixed results, with home appliances and furniture growing by 38.8% and 26.9% respectively [3][17] - The overall retail sales growth for April was 5.1%, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to March [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. The recovery of gold and jewelry sales driven by the Spring Festival effect and geopolitical risks increasing demand for safe-haven assets, with companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng recommended for attention [4] 2. The gradual recovery of offline sales as domestic consumption policies take effect, with traditional supermarkets undergoing reforms, recommending companies like Gao Xin Retail and Yonghui Supermarket [4] 3. The optimization of competition in the e-commerce sector, with a focus on major platforms like Pinduoduo and Alibaba [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The modification of the asset restructuring policy aims to implement the new "National Nine Articles" requirements and related measures from the "M&A Six Articles" [2] - The new "National Nine Articles" emphasizes enhancing the reform of mergers and acquisitions, with various measures to invigorate the M&A market [2] - The modifications to the restructuring regulations include establishing a phased payment mechanism for shares, increasing regulatory tolerance for financial condition changes, and introducing a simplified review process for certain transactions [3] Summary by Sections M&A Market Activity - The M&A market is expected to see a significant increase in activity due to the new regulations, with the number of planned asset restructurings, major asset restructurings, and completed major asset restructuring transaction amounts being 1.4 times, 3.3 times, and 11.6 times higher than the same period last year, respectively [4] Regulatory Changes - Key changes in the restructuring regulations include: - Establishing a phased payment mechanism for share acquisitions, extending the registration decision validity period to 48 months [3] - Increasing regulatory tolerance for changes in financial conditions and related party transactions [3] - Introducing a simplified review process for certain restructuring transactions, allowing for a decision within 5 working days [3] - Setting a 6-month lock-up period for major shareholders of the acquired company [3] - Encouraging private equity funds to participate in M&A by linking investment periods to lock-up periods [3] Market Implications - The efficiency of resource allocation in M&A is expected to improve, further invigorating both primary and secondary markets, which is beneficial for brokerage firms' investment banking businesses [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [6] Core Views - The agricultural sector is seen as a stable consumer goods category with strong demand and policy support, making it a potential safe haven for funds in a complex external environment [4] - The current prices of major meat proteins and agricultural products are in a bottoming phase, with quality leading companies expected to achieve stable growth in performance [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - For the week of May 12-16, 2025, the agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.07 percentage points, with the Shenwan Agricultural Index closing at 2,620.55, up 0.05% [15][17] - Among sub-sectors, the animal health sector rose by 7.36%, while feed and fishery sectors increased by 2.04% and 0.91% respectively; however, agricultural processing, breeding, and planting sectors saw declines of 0.90%, 0.96%, and 1.29% respectively [15][17] Key Industry Data Swine Farming - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of live pigs nationwide was 14.61 CNY/kg, down 1.42% week-on-week and down 4.76% year-on-year; self-breeding profits were 80.66 CNY/head, decreasing by 3.67 CNY/head week-on-week [2][21] Poultry - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of broiler chicks was 2.85 CNY/chick, down 2.06% week-on-week, and the price of white feather broilers was 7.40 CNY/kg, down 0.67% week-on-week [2][27] Agricultural Products - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of wheat was 2,468.89 CNY/ton, up 0.33% week-on-week; corn was 2,304.29 CNY/ton, up 0.50% week-on-week; however, soybean meal prices fell to 2,988.00 CNY/ton, down 9.45% week-on-week [3][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality swine companies with strong cost control, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - For the poultry sector, it recommends looking at integrated leaders like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock for their cost advantages [4] - In the feed sector, Haida Group is highlighted as a beneficiary of recovering livestock inventory [4] - For agricultural products, attention is drawn to Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang, as well as seed companies like Denghai Seeds and Longping High-Tech [4]

非银金融 行业研究/行业周报 低配券商板块或迎公募资金重配置机会 ——券商&资本市场周观察（2025.5.12-2025.5.16） ◼ 市场要闻 1. 中国证监会修改《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》，深化上市公司 并购重组市场改革；2. 首批 26 只上报浮动费率基金主要对标沪深 300、 中证 A500、500、800 等主流宽基指数。 ◼ 数据跟踪 本周证券(申万)指数上涨 2.18%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.07pct。红塔证券 （+13.84%）、锦龙股份（+13.18%）、广发证券（+6.09%）领涨。券商 ETF 本周环比-8.9 亿份，今年以来累计流入资金 36.7 亿元。截至 2025/5/16，证券(申万)指数 PB1.27X，位于近 5 年由低至高 38%分位。 1）交投：本周 A 股日均成交额 12663 亿元，环比-6.4%，本年 A 股日 均成交额 14336 亿元，同比+58.8%。 2）两融：截止 2025/5/15，A 股两融余额 18085 亿元，其中融资余额 17967 亿元，融券余额 118 亿元，环比分别+44.9、+42.9、+2.0 亿元。 年内日均两融余额同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 15, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for April 2025. M2 increased by 8.00% year - on - year, M1 increased by 1.50% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of April 2025 increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The accelerated implementation of existing fiscal policies and government financing supported the growth of April's social financing data. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in April was 8.70%, and the initial value of new social financing was 115.85 billion yuan. Government bond net financing in April was 97.62 billion yuan, 106.99 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2][13]. - The low base and capital re - flow drove the rebound of M2 growth. At the end of April, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 rebounded by 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value, indicating weak corporate investment willingness [3][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government Financing Supports the Stable Growth of Social Financing - The implementation of existing fiscal policies accelerated, and government financing supported the significant rebound of April's social financing data. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in April was 8.70%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. The initial value of new social financing was 115.85 billion yuan, 135.72 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Government bond net financing in April was 97.62 billion yuan, 106.99 billion yuan more than the same period last year [13]. - Credit in the social financing caliber in April was weak. New RMB loans were 8.44 billion yuan, 24.65 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Direct financing: corporate bond net financing increased by 23.4 billion yuan in April, 6.33 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 3.92 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Non - standard financing: new non - standard financing decreased by 28.73 billion yuan in April, 13.86 billion yuan less than the same period last year [13]. - New RMB loans in the financial institution caliber in April were 28 billion yuan, 45 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate department: corporate loans increased by 61 billion yuan, 25 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident department: resident loans decreased by 52.16 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2][14]. 3.2 Low Base and Capital Re - flow Drive the Rebound of M2 Growth - At the end of April, M2 increased by 8.00% year - on - year, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous value. The low base caused by the rectification of "manual interest compensation" and "squeezing water" in financial data last year, combined with the acceleration of deposit creation by government financing and the reduction of capital re - flow to wealth management products, pushed up the year - on - year growth rate of M2. M1 increased by 1.50% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value, indicating that corporate investment willingness needs to be improved. The M1 - M2 gap was negative, and the absolute value widened to 6.50 pct [23]. - In terms of deposit structure, non - bank deposits increased significantly year - on - year. Household deposits decreased by 139 billion yuan in April, 46 billion yuan less than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 132.97 billion yuan, 54.28 billion yuan less than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 157.1 billion yuan, 190.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 37.1 billion yuan, 27.29 billion yuan more than the same period last year [3][23]. 3.3 Investment Advice - Credit supply needs to pick up. The social financing data in April verified the policy effect of the front - loaded fiscal policy. Government bonds became the core source of increment, and the credit structure may reflect the strengthened support for key areas of the real economy. Although the credit growth rate may be disturbed by debt replacement in the short term, the supporting role of finance in the economy will continue to appear under the synergistic effect of policies [4][30]. - April is a traditional "low - credit month", and combined with the uncertainty of foreign trade, credit demand may be under pressure in the short term. However, a package of financial policies introduced in May is expected to boost confidence. In the future, attention should be paid to the issuance rhythm of special treasury bonds and the marginal impact of changes in the foreign trade environment on the demand side. The central bank's monetary policy focus has shifted from "responding to shocks" to "structural breakthroughs" [4][30]. - There is adjustment pressure in the short - term bond market, and the yield curve of bonds becomes steeper. It is recommended that investors grasp the rhythm, trading accounts increase positions on adjustments, and allocation accounts pay attention to the opportunity to intervene when the supply of local bonds increases [4][30].

短债收益率回落，融资加码科技 ——流动性 5 月第 1 期 ◼ 内容要点 策略研究/策略周报 上周（5.5-5.9）2 年期国债收益率下行、10 年期上行；美国 2 年期、 10 年国债收益率继续上行，美元指数回升，中美 10 年国债利差边际 扩大；上周融资买入额回升，南向资金流小幅净流入。 ◼ 宏观流动性 国内：上周（5.5-5.9），2 年期国债收益率下行、10 年期上行，10 年期 与 2 年期国债利差扩大。上周央行公开市场净回笼 7817 亿元，MLF 净回笼 1250 亿元。 国外：上周（5.5-5.9）2 年期、10 年期美债收益率继续上行，美元指 数上行，中美 10 年期国债利差边际扩大。上周 10 年期美债收益率上 行至 4.37%，美元指数升至 100.42。截至 5 月 9 日，中美 10 年期国债 利差扩大至-2.73%。 ◼ 市场流动性 公募基金：2025 年 5 月新成立 15 只基金，其中 13 只为股票型基金。 截至 5 月 9 日，2025 年 5 月新成立基金 15 只，24 年 5 月为 94 只； 其中，5 月新成立股票型基金 13 只，发行总额约 58 亿份。 ETF ...

固定收益/固收周报 短期债市调整压力增加 ——固收周报（2025.05.05-2025.05.09） 利率债：国债收益率多数下行，期限利差走阔：2025 年 05 月 02 日- 2025 年 05 月 09 日期间，央行总计开展 8,361.00 亿元逆回购操作，共 16,178.00亿元逆回购到期，全口径下净回笼 7,817.00亿元。银行间资 金价格整体下行，其中，DR001 下行 29.45BP 至 1.4908%；DR007 下 行 25.77BP 至 1.5409%。利率债一级市场发行 5,785.79 亿元，净融资 额为 2,352.91 亿元。国债 10 年期上行 1.08BP 至 1.6351%，1 年期、3 年期 、5 年期、7 年期国债收益率分别下行 4.05BP、1.33BP、 2.06BP、0.86BP 至 1.4194%、1.4633%、1.4957%、1.5720%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 16.44BP 走阔至 21.57BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率整体下行：2025 年 05 月 05 日-2025 年 05 月 11日期间，信用债发行规模增加，其中信用债一级市场新发行 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of the agriculture sector with an "Overweight" rating, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry due to stable demand and strong policy support [3][5]. Core Views - The agriculture sector is seen as a defensive investment option amidst a complex external environment, with many meat protein and agricultural product prices currently in a recovery phase, suggesting potential for stable growth in leading companies [3]. - The report highlights that low costs are a core competitive advantage for listed pig farming companies, recommending a focus on firms with strong cost control or clear cost reduction paths [3]. - The report suggests monitoring specific companies across various segments, including pig farming, poultry, feed, and agricultural products, indicating a diversified investment approach [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agriculture sector underperformed the market by 1.02 percentage points during the week of May 6-9, 2025, with the index closing at 2,619.30, reflecting a 0.99% increase [14]. - Among sub-sectors, the fishery sector performed best with a 3.87% increase, while the breeding sector saw a slight decline of 0.19% [16][18]. Key Industry Data Pig Farming - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.82 CNY/kg, down 0.13% from April 30, 2025, and down 0.74% year-on-year [1]. - The profit from self-breeding was 84.33 CNY per head, while the profit from purchasing piglets increased by 9.92 CNY to 58.46 CNY per head [1]. Poultry - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of broiler chicks was 2.91 CNY per chick, up 0.34% week-on-week, while the price of white feather broilers was 7.45 CNY/kg, down 0.40% [2]. Agricultural Products - As of May 9, 2025, the average prices for key crops were as follows: wheat at 2,460.67 CNY/ton (up 0.19%), japonica rice at 2,864.00 CNY/ton (up 0.21%), corn at 2,292.86 CNY/ton (up 1.78%), and soybean meal at 3,300.00 CNY/ton (down 5.08%) [2]. Company Announcements - Muyuan Foods reported selling 6.573 million pigs in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.80%, with an average selling price of 14.66 CNY/kg [35][36]. - Shennong Development achieved a sales revenue of 1.533 billion CNY in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.68% [37].