电子 行业研究/行业周报 NAND：三星计划到 2030 年实现 1000 层 NAND 并推出 400 层晶圆 键合技术。根据 DRAMexchange，上周（20250224-0228）NAND 颗 粒 22 个品类现货价格环比涨跌幅区间为 0.00%至 3.45%，平均涨跌幅 为 0.49%。其中 11 个料号价格持平，11 个料号价格上涨，0 个料号价 格下跌。三星电子在国际固态电路会议（ISSCC）上展示了其晶圆键 合、低温蚀刻和钼应用等技术。这些技术将从 400 层的 NAND 闪存 技术开始应用，可用于在 NAND 区域实现 1000 多层堆叠。 DRAM：TrendForce 称 2024 年四季度 DRAM 内存产业营收 280 亿 美元，环比增长 9.9%。根据 DRAMexchange，上周（20250224- 0228）DRAM 18个品类现货价格环比涨跌幅区间为-1.16%至 2.47%， 平均涨跌幅为 0.20%。上周 8 个料号呈上涨趋势，10 个料号呈下降趋 势，0 个料号价格持平。TrendForce 集邦咨询表示，2024 年四季度全 球 DRAM 内存产业实现 280 亿 ...

策略研究/策略点评 择时而入，乘势而上 ——2025 年政府工作报告点评 ◼ 核心观点 ◼ 投资建议 我们看好新质生产力背景下科技创新的长期趋势，投资有望围绕"人 工智能+"的方向逐级展开，从商业化落地进程和技术发展节奏角度， 建议持续关注智能驾驶/人形机器人/卫星互联网（低空经济）赛道。 ◼ 风险提示 财政支持力度不及预期、战略性新兴产业发展不及预期。 | 分析师： | 唐文卿 | | --- | --- | | E-mail： | tangwenqing@yongxi | | | ngsec.com | | SAC编号： | S1760524050001 | | 相关报告： | | 《3 月金股：政策暖风 科技慢牛》 ——2025 年 03 月 02 日 《2 月金股：创新崛起，生态重塑》 ——2025 年 02 月 05 日 《务天时，则财生》 ——2025 年 01 月 11 日 大力提振消费和提高投资效益是扩大内需、拉动经济增长的主动力和 稳定锚。在提振消费方面，中央安排 3000 亿元超长期特别国债支持以 旧换新政策。同时，通过多渠道促进居民增收、创新消费场景、扩容 服务消费等措施，释放消费潜力， ...

石油石化 行业研究/行业周报 长丝下游开工提升，把握行业布局机会 ——石油化工行业周报（20250224-20250228） ◼ 市场行情回顾 ◼ 风险提示 油价大幅波动、需求不及预期、海外经营风险等。 ◼ 核心观点 上游板块方面，上周国际油价有所下滑。从周度数据以及 EIA 短期展 望数据来看，尽管未来两年美国原油产量维持增长，但是国际油价重 心仍有望高位震荡，持续利好上游油气公司。油服方面，北美活跃钻 机数周环比增加，但是同比减少较为明显。全球的钻井平台数量今年 四季度环比下滑，未来提升空间较大。中游炼化板块方面，新加坡柴 油价差周下滑约 1.5 美元/桶，汽油价差周下滑约 1.4 美元/桶，乙烯与 石脑油价差周上涨约 2 美元/吨，PX 与石脑油价差周下滑约 14 美元/ 吨。从周度数据来看，成品油产品中，新加坡汽油价差走势相对更强； 炼厂化工品中，乙烯与石脑油价差有所扩大，PX 与石脑油价差有所缩 小，炼化公司的业绩修复空间较大。 终端聚酯方面，截至 2 月 28 日，POY 价差约为 1343 元/吨。从库存天 数 来 看 ， 江 浙 织 机 FDY/DTY/POY 的 库 存 天 数 环 比 变 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [7] Core Viewpoints - M&A events are beneficial for the brokerage sector, enhancing risk appetite. The stock prices of China Galaxy and CICC rose by 8.46% and 3.19% respectively due to market rumors of mergers, although both companies later clarified that no such plans were in place [3][12] - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to bring attention to the brokerage sector, with government reports likely focusing on stabilizing the stock market and encouraging long-term capital inflows, which could reduce performance uncertainty for brokerages [4][13] - The brokerage sector may see opportunities from two catalysts: one being the potential for macro policy adjustments exceeding expectations, and the other being the positive feedback from the current structural market conditions [4][13] Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume of A-shares reached 19,916 billion yuan this week, up 4.1% week-on-week, and 18,402 billion yuan in February, up 52.6% month-on-month. Year-to-date, the average daily trading volume is 15,228 billion yuan, up 84.1% year-on-year [2][28] - As of February 28, 2025, the A-share margin trading balance was 18,982 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 18,871 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 111 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 187.3 billion yuan and 188.1 billion yuan respectively [2][28] - 25 new equity funds were established this week, totaling 251.7 million shares, a 477% increase week-on-week [2][28] Investment Suggestions - With significant increases in market trading activity, it is recommended to focus on internet brokerages with high trading elasticity and beta attributes, such as East Money. Additionally, attention should be given to leading brokerages like CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and Huatai Securities, which have advantages in equity asset management and ETF management [5][13] - Brokerages with M&A expectations, such as China Galaxy and CICC, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The pet industry is experiencing increased investment interest, particularly in smart pet products, driven by the rise of "empty nest" pet ownership and refined pet care demands [2][3] - Tianyuan Pet's acquisition of "Itpin" aims to enhance offline channel capabilities and integrate resources to strengthen its brand matrix centered around pet stores [1] - The Chinese pet economy is projected to grow from 592.8 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.15 trillion yuan by 2028, indicating a robust market trend [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The pet industry is witnessing a surge in investment as companies from various sectors enter the market, recognizing the growing consumer spending on pets [3] - The market is characterized by a shift towards smart pet products, which cater to the needs of busy pet owners [2] Company Developments - Tianyuan Pet has launched its first asset acquisition project with Chongqing Xiyuan Information Technology Co., enhancing its B2B digital procurement platform for pet stores [1] - Xiaomai and other tech giants are entering the pet electronics market, developing smart pet devices [3] Market Trends - The demand for smart pet products is expected to grow due to advancements in AI, IoT, and big data technologies, which will create new opportunities in the industry [2] - Companies with strong product development, brand building, and resource integration capabilities are likely to thrive amid industry evolution [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies involved in smart pet technology and interactive pet products, such as Tianyuan Pet, Yiyi Co., and Source Fly Pet [4] - Consider investments in companies like Xiaomi, Haier, and Unilever that are diversifying into the pet sector [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - Beijing has introduced 12 measures to promote high-quality development in the advertising industry, which is expected to benefit the entire industry chain. The annual revenue of large-scale advertising companies in Beijing reached 343.4 billion yuan, maintaining the top position in the country with a steady growth trend [10][26] - The success of "Nezha 2" has not only boosted the domestic film market but also reignited interest in the "Guzi economy," with related merchandise sales exceeding 300 million yuan within a month of its release, breaking previous records [2][10] - Multiple regions, including Zhejiang and Guangzhou, have expressed support for the gaming industry to grow stronger, with specific policies and funding being developed to enhance the sector [11][27] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Media Index fell by 8% from February 24 to February 28, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 5.78 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 3.55 percentage points. The performance of the seven sub-sectors of the Shenwan Media Index ranked as follows: Television Broadcasting (-5.28%), Publishing (-5.79%), Advertising Marketing (-7.09%), Digital Media (-8.38%), Gaming (-9.1%), Education (-9.16%), and Film and Television (-9.89%) [3][14][17] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: - Advertising Marketing: Suggested companies include Focus Media and Easy Point [12] - Guzi Economy: Suggested companies include Aofei Entertainment, Guangbo Shares, Huali Technology, and Chuangyuan Shares [12] - Gaming: Suggested companies include Kaiying Network, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and G-bits [12] 3. Industry News - Beijing's 12 measures aim to enhance the digital advertising industry's quality and support the construction of digital advertising industrial parks, optimizing medical advertising management and providing guidelines for financial and real estate advertising [26] - The merchandise sales related to "Nezha 2" have surpassed 300 million yuan, with over 2 billion yuan coming from trendy items like blind boxes and figurines, leading to the emergence of nearly 10 million-level stores [2][10] - Zhejiang and Guangzhou are implementing measures to support the gaming industry, including policies for promoting local games abroad and enhancing cultural trade innovation [11][27]

通信 行业研究/行业周报 A OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.5，英伟达财报表现亮眼 ——通信行业周报（2025.2.24-2025.2.28） ◼ 核心观点 本周我们看好光模块、运营商、通信设备等板块。 光模块：建议关注中际旭创、天孚通信、新易盛等。 运营商：建议关注中国移动、中国电信、中国联通等。 通信设备：建议关注中兴通讯、紫光股份等。 ◼ 风险提示 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 算力：OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.5。据澎湃新闻报道，当地时间 2 月 27 日 （周四），OpenAI 通过一段 13 分钟的视频发布了其最新模型 GPT- 4.5，这是迄今为止最大的模型。据悉，GPT-4.5 的训练使用了 GPT- 4o 10 倍的计算能力，它的能力展示了预训练规模进一步扩展带来的 能力的提升。在多项基准测试中，GPT-4.5 超过了 GPT-4o，尤其在数 学能力上上升了 27%，编码能力提升 7%-10%。山姆·奥特曼也表示 这是一个庞大且昂贵的模型，目前仅向 ChatGPT Pro 推出。"我们一 直在增长，GPU 已经用完了。我们下周将增加数万张 GPU。" 通信设备：光传输设备市场强势收官，2 ...

策略研究/策略月报 3 月金股：政策暖风 科技慢牛 ◼ 核心观点 金股推荐：1、传媒：腾讯控股；2、传媒：小米集团-W；3、汽车：零 跑汽车；4、电新：明阳电气；5、电子：东睦股份；6、汽车：博俊科 技；7、机械：精工科技；8、机械：信捷电气。 2025 年两会焦点并非经济增长或通胀，而是财政在新质生产力发展层 面的支持力度。我们认为即将召开的两会，政府有望加大超长期特别 国债的发行对于"两新"政策的支持和战略新兴产业的投资。面对全 球复杂的国内外经济形势，中国政府有望实施更加积极的财政政策， 发挥财政资金引导撬动作用支持现代化产业体系建设，加快培育发展 新质生产力。我们认为超长期国债或将重点流向先进制造业，例如半 导体、人工智能、先进制造（汽车/机器人）等前沿领域。通过大规模 投资，政府旨在加速技术突破和产业升级，引导产业结构性改革，推 动中国在全球产业链中占据更高附加值位置。此外，随着先进制造业 的逐步落地也有望带动上下游产业链协同发展，创造更多高质量就业 机会，促进中国经济向创新驱动转型和发展。 民营企业座谈会的召开意义重大，开启民营经济高质量发展新篇章。 我们认为，2 月中旬召开的民企座谈会具有重要的 ...

北京出台政策推动广告行业发展，浙江、广州多地支 持游戏产业"做大做强" ——传媒行业周报（2025.02.24-2025.2.28） ◼ 核心观点 传媒 行业研究/行业周报 本周（2.24-2.28），A 股申万传媒指数下跌 8%，整体跑输沪深 300 指 数 5.78pct，跑输创业板综指数 3.55pct。申万传媒二级七大子板块 涨跌幅由高到低分别为：电视广播(-5.28%)、出版(-5.79%)、广告营 销(-7.09%)、数字媒体(-8.38%)、游戏(-9.1%)、教育(-9.16%)、影 视院线(-9.89%）。从海外市场指数表现来看，整体继续维持弱势，海 内外指数涨跌幅由高到低分别为：纳斯达克(-3.47%)、中国金龙指数 (-3.9%)、道琼斯美国科技(-4.11%)、恒生科技(-4.97%)、申万传媒 (-8%)。 ◼ 投资建议 本周我们看好广告营销、谷子经济、游戏等方面。 广告营销：建议关注分众传媒、易点天下等。 谷子经济：建议关注奥飞娱乐、广博股份、华立科技、创源股份 等。 游戏：建议关注恺英网络、三七互娱、吉比特等。 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 广告营销：北京推出 12 项举措推动广告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ning Shui Group, indicating a positive outlook on the company's performance relative to the market benchmark [4]. Core Views - The successful election of the new board and supervisory committee on February 17 and 18, 2025, reflects the company's stable governance structure and commitment to strategic direction [2]. - The company is actively promoting the integration of artificial intelligence in smart water management, collaborating with major AI models to enhance service delivery [2]. - Local government leaders have praised the company's focus on its core business and its achievements in digital transformation, highlighting its competitive position in the water meter industry [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to approximately 1.346 billion, 1.706 billion, and 1.976 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates of 48 million, 53 million, and 58 million yuan [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.789 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.1%. However, a significant decline of 24.8% is expected in 2024 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.24 yuan in 2024, recovering to 0.26 yuan in 2025 and 0.29 yuan in 2026 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - Ning Shui Group is recognized as a leader in the water meter industry, with high concentration, competitive products, and significant sales volume [3]. - The company is leveraging new information technologies to extract data value and enhance operational efficiency in water management [2].