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德业股份首次覆盖报告:迎光储新兴市场机遇,逆变器与电池包并蒂开花
甬兴证券· 2025-02-14 08:36
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4][6]. Core Views - The company has established a product matrix consisting of three main product series: heat exchangers, circuit control, and environmental appliances. The inverter products, including storage, micro-grid, and string inverters, have seen significant growth since 2016, with a notable increase in sales volume [1][25]. - The global household energy storage market is rapidly growing, benefiting the company's storage inverter sales, which have increased significantly from 2.62 million units in the first half of 2021 to 214,100 units in the first half of 2024 [1][42]. - The integration of energy storage battery products with storage inverters has opened new market opportunities, with revenue from storage battery products reaching approximately 884 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 965.43% [2][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Traditional Business Development - The company has a stable development in traditional businesses, with inverters contributing significantly to performance elasticity. In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 7.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% [16][18]. - The inverter products accounted for 66.44% of the company's revenue in 2022, with a remarkable growth of 230.41% compared to 2021 [18][23]. 2. Rapid Growth in Household Storage Market - The household storage market is experiencing rapid growth, driving high demand for storage inverters. The global household storage market is expected to exceed 15GW/34GWh by the end of 2023, with significant contributions from countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, the USA, and Australia [36][39]. - The company’s storage inverters have seen a substantial increase in shipment volume, with 214,100 units sold in the first half of 2024, despite a year-on-year decline of 28.56% in storage inverters [1][42]. 3. Emerging Market Demand - The demand for solar storage in emerging markets is robust, particularly in regions like South Africa and Pakistan, which are experiencing significant growth in solar installations due to supportive policies and government funding [3][54]. - In 2023, the company’s photovoltaic products had a revenue distribution of 32.84% in South Africa, 8.52% in Brazil, 7.20% in Hong Kong, 5.60% in Germany, and 4.04% in India, indicating a strong international presence [66]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 10.31 billion yuan in 2024 to 15.38 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits increasing from 3.03 billion yuan to 4.72 billion yuan during the same period [4][11]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 15, and 12 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting a favorable valuation for investors [4][11].
风电行业周报:国家发改委、国家能源局发布新能源上网电价市场化改革新政
甬兴证券· 2025-02-14 00:31
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The new policy for market-oriented pricing of renewable energy grid connection is expected to promote high-quality development in the renewable energy sector and accelerate the establishment of a unified national electricity market [1][62] - The wind power sector has shown growth, with a 4.5% year-on-year increase in new installations in 2024, totaling 79.34 GW [2][24] - The approval of wind power projects in 2024 reached 103.41 GW, a significant increase of 63.24% year-on-year [42] Market Performance Review - The electricity equipment sector experienced a weekly increase of 5.61%, ranking 8th among 31 first-level industries [11] - The wind power equipment sub-sector saw a weekly increase of 2.83%, lagging behind other sectors [14] Wind Power Installation Data - As of the end of 2024, China's cumulative wind power installed capacity reached 520 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [24] - In December 2024 alone, new installations amounted to 27.59 GW [24] Wind Power Project Approval Data - The approval of land-based wind projects in 2024 was 87.55 GW, up 71.78% year-on-year, while offshore projects accounted for 14.62 GW, up 27.14% [42] Investment Recommendations - Companies benefiting from the demand for offshore wind power and deep-sea projects include Dongfang Cable, Haili Wind Power, Qifan Cable, and Yaxing Anchor Chain [3][62] - Companies with strong overseas market expansion capabilities include Dajin Heavy Industry, Taisen Wind Power, and Zhenjiang Co., Ltd. [3][62] - Wind turbine manufacturers with recovering profitability include Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, Sany Renewable Energy, and Yunda Co., Ltd. [3][62]
情绪与估值12月第5期:高股息板块估值分位上行
甬兴证券· 2025-02-13 01:44
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that during the week of December 26 to December 31, the A-share market saw a slight decrease in margin trading balance, with overall trading activity declining. Major indices experienced a general decline in PE valuation percentiles, with the CSI 1000 leading the drop [1][3] - The sentiment analysis shows a slight decrease in margin trading balance, with the proportion of financing purchases increasing slightly. The average margin trading balance was approximately 1.88 trillion yuan, down 0.30% from the previous week [2][10] - The overall trading activity in the market decreased, with the Shenzhen Component Index experiencing the largest decline in trading volume, down 9.54% compared to the previous week [12][15] Group 2 - The valuation analysis reveals that the PE valuation percentiles for major indices generally declined, with the CSI 1000 leading the drop by 4.4 percentage points. The Wind ChiNext Index also saw a decline of 4.1 percentage points [17][18] - The style analysis indicates that the PE valuation percentiles for various styles generally fell, with the growth style experiencing the largest decline of 3.6 percentage points. The PB valuation percentiles also saw a general decline, with the growth style down 5.1 percentage points [31][32] - The industry analysis shows that most industry PE valuation percentiles declined, with the coal industry leading the gains, increasing by 2.3 percentage points, while the pharmaceutical industry saw the largest decline of 8.7 percentage points [45][46]
流动性12月第4期:12月IPO量价齐升
甬兴证券· 2025-02-13 01:42
Macro Liquidity - The 2-year government bond yield increased to 1.1320%, while the 10-year yield decreased to 1.6929%, resulting in a narrowing yield spread of 0.5609%[9] - The central bank's net withdrawal from the open market was 798.2 billion CNY, and the MLF net withdrawal was 1.15 trillion CNY[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.62%, and the dollar index increased to 108.02, with the China-U.S. 10-year bond yield spread widening to -2.93%[12][13] Market Liquidity - In December, 110 new funds were established, with 49 being equity funds, totaling 1.493 trillion units issued, and 280 billion units for equity funds alone, accounting for 18.7%[21][22] - A total of 21 new equity ETFs were launched in December, with 103.2 billion units issued, contributing to a total of 169 new ETFs in 2024, up from 157 in 2023[23][24] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 154 billion CNY last week, with a total net inflow of 731 billion CNY for the year, marking a historical high[33][34] Financing and IPOs - The average financing purchase amount was 131.8 billion CNY, down 2.6% week-on-week, with a total margin balance of approximately 1.88 trillion CNY[40] - In December, 11 companies conducted IPOs, raising approximately 9.3 billion CNY, while the total equity financing scale reached about 45.2 billion CNY[44]
计算机行业周报:GitHub Copilot推出视觉功能——全球AI产业跟踪
甬兴证券· 2025-02-13 01:41
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - Amazon plans to launch the next generation of Alexa generative AI services using the Claude model, with over 100 million active users and more than 500 million devices sold [20][21] - DeepMind's AI system AlphaGeometry2 has achieved significant progress in solving geometry problems from the International Mathematical Olympiad, solving 84% of the problems from the past 25 years [21] - GitHub has announced major updates to its AI programming assistant Copilot, including a "Vision" feature that allows users to upload images for code generation [22] - DeepSeek-V3 API service has ended its promotional pricing, with costs increasing from 2 yuan to 8 yuan per million output tokens [22] Investment Recommendations - The report is optimistic about the overall AI industry chain and suggests focusing on IaaS layer investment opportunities, recommending stocks such as MSFT, GOOGL, META, and AMAZON [5][23]
计算机行业周报:比亚迪宋PLUS智驾版SUV将上市,配备“天神之眼”系统
甬兴证券· 2025-02-13 01:41
计算机 行业研究/行业周报 比亚迪宋 PLUS 智驾版 SUV 将上市,配备"天神之眼"系统 ——计算机行业周报(2025.2.5-2025.2.7) ◼ 本周核心观点及要闻回顾 大模型应用:春节期间三家基础电信企业均全面接入 DeepSeek 开源 大模型 据 IT 之家援引"工信微报"微信公众号,2025 年春节期间,基础电 信企业积极利用 AI 开展创新服务,融合其在 5G、云平台、大数据等 方面能力,多领域布局,拓展 AI 应用场景,丰富 AI 应用供给。三家 基础电信企业均全面接入 DeepSeek 开源大模型,实现在多场景、多 产品中应用,针对热门的 DeepSeek-R1 模型提供专属算力方案和配套 环境,助力国产大模型性能释放。 大模型底座:DeepSeek 成最快突破 3000 万日活 App 据 IT 之家援引 QuestMobile 数据显示,DeepSeek 在 1 月 28 日的日活 跃用户数首次超越豆包,随后在 2 月 1 日突破 3000 万大关,成为史 上最快达成这一里程碑的应用。据 AI 产品榜,2025 年 1 月 20 日 DeepSeekR1 模型发布后,DeepSee ...
电力设备:新能源上网电价市场化改革,迈出新型电力系统建设关键步伐
甬兴证券· 2025-02-11 09:49
电力设备 行业研究/行业点评 新能源上网电价市场化改革, 迈出新型电力系统建设关键步伐 ◼ 核心观点 发改委、能源局发布《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革 促进新能 源高质量发展的通知》。 改革总体思路是,坚持市场化方向,推动新能源上网电量全面进入市 场、上网电价由市场形成,配套建立可持续发展价格结算机制,区分 存量和增量分类施策,促进行业持续健康发展。 改革主要内容有三方面。一是推动新能源上网电价全面由市场形成。 新能源项目上网电量原则上全部进入电力市场,上网电价通过市场交 易形成。二是建立支持新能源可持续发展的价格结算机制。新能源参 与市场交易后,在结算环节建立可持续发展价格结算机制,对纳入机 制的电量,按机制电价结算。三是区分存量和增量项目分类施策。存 量项目的机制电价与现行政策妥善衔接,增量项目的机制电价通过市 场化竞价方式确定。 方案提出在推动新能源全面参与市场的同时,建立新能源可持续发展 价格结算机制,对纳入机制的电量,当市场交易价格低于机制电价时 给予差价补偿,高于机制电价时扣除差价。通过这种"多退少补"的 差价结算方式,让企业能够有合理稳定的预期,从而促进行业平稳健 康发展,助力"双碳"目标的 ...
通信行业点评报告:北美CSP资本开支指引超预期,2025年预计超3000亿美元
甬兴证券· 2025-02-11 09:49
通信 行业研究/行业点评 北美 CSP 资本开支指引超预期,2025 年预计 超 3000 亿美元 ——通信行业点评报告 ◼ 核心观点 微软持续投资云计算和人工智能基础设施。据新华社报道,2025 年 1 月 30 日,微软发布 2025 财年(2024 年 7 月至 2025 年 6 月)第二季 度财报显示,受云计算业务大幅增长带动,企业当季营业收入达到 696 亿美元,同比增幅超过 12%;当季归母净利润 241 亿美元,同比增长 10%。当季,微软云计算业务收入达 409 亿美元,同比增长 21%,其 中智能云业务营收为 255 亿美元,同比增长 19%。微软公司表示,将 持续投资云计算和人工智能基础设施。微软董事长兼首席执行官萨提 亚·纳德拉表示,按照当前发展势头,微软公司人工智能业务年收入 预计超过 130 亿美元,同比增长将达 175%。根据 C114 通信网援引极 客网消息,微软计划在 2025 财年投入 800 亿美元建设 AI 数据中心。 Meta 2025 年计划资本开支快速增长。根据新浪财经报道,2025 年 1 月 30 日,Meta 发布 2024 财年第四季度及全年未经审计财报。报 ...
医药生物行业周报:诺和诺德、礼来披露年报,减肥药市场持续增长
甬兴证券· 2025-02-11 09:40
医药生物 行业研究/行业周报 诺和诺德、礼来披露年报,减肥药市场持续增长 ——医药生物行业周报(2024.2.3-2.7) 行情回顾 上周(2025 年 2 月 3 日-2 月 7 日),A 股申万医药生物上涨 3.21%, 板块整体跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.23pct,跑输创业板综指数 2.74pct。在 申万 31 个一级子行业中,医药板块周涨跌幅排名为第 9 位。恒生医 疗保健指数上涨 4.2%,板块整体跑输恒生指数 0.3pct。在恒生 12 个 一级子行业中,医疗保健行业周涨跌幅排名为第 4 位。 核心观点 诺和诺德、礼来相继发布 2024Q4 业绩。近日诺和诺德和礼来相继披露 2024 年第四季度业绩,数据显示两个公司旗下的减肥药销售额持续增 长。诺和诺德年报显示 2024 年减肥用司美格鲁肽注射液 Wegovy 创收 582.06 亿丹麦克朗(84.48 亿美元),同比增长 86%,其三款司美格鲁肽 产品全年合计收入 2018.49 亿丹麦克朗,即 292.96 亿美元。礼来年报显 示 2024 年降糖版替尔泊肽 Mounjaro 全年销售额突破百亿美元,达到 115.401 亿美元,同比增长 ...
电子行业存储芯片周度跟踪:西部数据减少NAND供应,存储市场或于Q2复苏
甬兴证券· 2025-02-11 09:40
电子 行业研究/行业周报 西部数据减少 NAND 供应,存储市场或于 Q2 复苏 ——存储芯片周度跟踪(2025.02.05-2025.02.07) NAND: 西 部 数 据 2025 年 或 将 逐步减少 NAND 供 应 。 根 据 DRAMexchange,上周(20250205-0207)NAND 颗粒 22 个品类现货 价格环比涨跌幅区间为-1.18%至 2.94%,平均涨跌幅为 0.18%。其中 16 个料号价格持平,4 个料号价格上涨,2 个料号价格下跌。根据科 创板日报报道,对于 NAND,西部数据预计收入将环比下降 15%左 右,预计 2025 年逐步减少市场供应。 DRAM:铠侠宣布开源 AiSAQ 技术,可降低生成式 AI 系统中的 DRAM 需求。根据 DRAMexchange,上周(20250205-0207)DRAM 18 个品类现货价格环比涨跌幅区间为-0.79%至 2.29%,平均涨跌幅为 0.08%。上周 7 个料号呈上涨趋势,11 个料号呈下降趋势,0 个料号 价格持平。根据 CFM 闪存市场报道,铠侠宣布开源其全新全存储 ANNS 产品量化(AiSAQ)技术,这是一种针 ...