信贷有望迎来"开门红" ——12 月社融数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 固定收益/固收点评 事件：2025 年 1 月 14 日，央行公布 2024 年金融统计数据：广义货币 M2 同比增长 7.3%，高于前值 0.2 个百分点；狭义货币 M1 同比下降 1.4%，增速回升 2.3 个百分点。2024 年末社会融资规模存量同比增长 8%；2024 年全年社会融资规模增量累计为 32.26 万亿元，比上年少 3.32 万亿元。 政府融资成为社融超预期重要支撑。12 月社融同比增速为 8.00%，较 前值回升 0.2 个百分点；12 月新增社融初值为 28,575 亿元，高于万得 一致预测，较上年同期多增 9175 亿元。政府融资连续回升，成为拉动 社融增长的主要贡献项。直接融资方面：企业债净融资同比增加； 新 增非标融资减少 1,201 亿元，同比少减 360 亿元。信贷方面，居民端 来中长贷延续改善，12 月居民贷款增加 3,500 亿元，同比多增 1,279 亿元。其中，居民短贷增加 588 亿元，同比少增 171 亿元；而中长期 贷款增加 3,000 亿元，同比多增 1,538 亿元。从企业端来看，12 月企 业 ...

汽车 行业研究/行业周报 特斯拉 Semi 工厂有望于 2025 年投产，小米汽车 2025 年交付目标 30 万辆 ——汽车行业周报（2024/12/30~2025/01/03） ◼ 行情回顾 过去一周(2024/12/30~2025/01/03），申万汽车行业下跌 7.45%，表现 弱于同花顺全 A，所有一级行业中涨跌幅排名第 19。细分板块涨跌 幅：过去一周(2024/12/30~2025/01/03），摩托车及其他跌幅最小，汽 车服务跌幅最大。摩托车及其他下跌 6.28%，商用车下跌 6.35%，乘 用车下跌 6.88%，汽车零部件下跌 7.96%，汽车服务下跌 9.84%。 ◼ 核心数据 数据跟踪： 1）行业总量：据中汽协数据，2024 年 11 月汽车销量约 331.6 万辆， 环比+8.6%，同比+11.7%。 2）车企端：据乘联会数据，2024 年 11 月，比亚迪、吉利和奇瑞零 售销量位列前三，分别约 41.7、21.7 和 15.8 万辆，份额分别约为 17.2% 、 9.0% 和 6.5%。 其 中 比 亚 迪 汽 车 、 奇 瑞 汽 车 分 别 同 比 +58.6%、+65.0%。 2 ...

计算机 行业研究/行业周报 亿航智能全球首个"三证"eVTOL 完成试飞 ——计算机行业周报（2025.1.13-2025.1.17） ◼ 本周核心观点及要闻回顾 低空经济：全球首个"三证"eVTOL——亿航智能无人驾驶载人电动 垂直起降飞行器在上海完成试飞 ◼ 市场行情回顾 本周，A 股申万计算机指数上涨 6.14%，板块整体跑赢沪深 300 指数达 4pct，跑赢创业板综指数达 0.75pct。在申万 31 个一级子行业中，计算 机板块周涨跌幅排名为第 3 位。计算机二级行业涨跌幅分别为：软件开 发(7.49%)、计算机设备(4%)、IT 服务 II(6.23%)。海外市场指数整体走 势较强，涨跌幅由高到低分别为：Wind 美国中资股软件与服务(7.3%)、 恒生资讯科技业(4.11%)、纳斯达克(2.45%)、道琼斯美国科技(1.66%) 、 台湾信息服务(-1.26%)。 ◼ 投资建议 本周我们重点看好受益 Kimi 相关 API 发布的大模型板块、受益亿航 智能全球首个"三证"eVTOL 完成试飞的低空经济板块、以及受益 联想入局的机器人板块。 大模型：建议关注云赛智联、润泽科技等； 人形机器人：建 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Accumulate" [6] Core Viewpoints - NAND flash memory is currently in oversupply, leading major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to plan production cuts in 2025 to stabilize prices. Recent data shows that the price fluctuations for 22 types of NAND particles ranged from -1.23% to 2.50%, with an average change of 0.42% [1][23] - The DRAM market is expected to begin recovering in the second quarter of 2025, as indicated by Nanya Technology's management, who noted a shift in customer attitudes due to regional economic stimulus measures [2][24] - The overall storage market is in a consolidation phase, with trading activity being relatively subdued. Despite manufacturers implementing production adjustments, the market remains in a state of supply-demand imbalance, leading to price declines in most applications except for AI servers [3][23] Summary by Sections NAND Market - Major manufacturers are planning production cuts in 2025 to address the oversupply of NAND flash memory, with a focus on stabilizing prices. The current market faces challenges, particularly in non-enterprise SSD segments, where demand is lower than expected [1][23] DRAM Market - Nanya Technology anticipates a recovery in the DRAM market starting in Q2 2025, supported by positive customer sentiment following economic stimulus initiatives. Recent price changes for 18 DRAM types showed fluctuations between -1.07% and 1.36%, with an average change of 0.09% [2][24] HBM Market - Micron plans to ramp up production of advanced HBM processes in Taiwan, with expectations for the HBM4 generation to begin production in 2026. This growth is driven by strong demand from AI applications [2][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the HBM industry chain, which is expected to benefit from the rapid development of advanced computing chips. Recommended companies include Saiteng Co., Yishitong, Lianrui New Materials, and Huahai Chengke. For storage chips, companies like Dongxin Co., Zhaoyi Innovation, Hengsuo Co., and others are highlighted as potential investments [4][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [6] Core Insights - The launch of Loomos AI glasses by Flash is expected to benefit the related industry chain, as it is powered by GPT-4o, indicating a positive trend in AI applications [11][29] - The Ministry of Commerce has introduced a subsidy plan for purchasing mobile phones, tablets, and smartwatches, which is anticipated to benefit the consumer electronics industry [12][31] - Micron Technology is investing approximately $7 billion in Singapore to expand advanced packaging capacity, highlighting the growing importance of advanced packaging in the AI era [13][29] - Domestic semiconductor equipment sales are projected to grow by 35% in 2024, indicating a speeding up of the domestic substitution process in the semiconductor industry [14][30] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - AI Edge: The launch of Loomos AI glasses by Flash is expected to benefit the related industry chain, with applications in real-time assistance powered by GPT-4o [11] - Consumer Electronics: The subsidy plan for mobile devices is expected to stimulate demand and benefit the industry chain [12] - Advanced Packaging: Micron's investment in Singapore for advanced packaging is set to meet the growing demand from AI [13] - Domestic Substitution: A projected 35% growth in domestic semiconductor equipment sales in 2024 indicates a rapid domestic substitution process [14] 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 4.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.94 percentage points [3][17] - The performance of the Shenwan Electronics sub-sectors varied, with Electronic Chemicals II leading at 5.43% [20][22] 3. Industry News - The introduction of new AI products and subsidies is expected to drive growth in the consumer electronics sector [12][31] - Micron's new advanced packaging facility in Singapore is a significant investment aimed at supporting AI growth [13][29] 4. Company Dynamics - Companies such as Guoguang Electric, Edifier, and others are recommended for their potential benefits from hardware innovation and AI applications [15] - The performance of individual stocks varied significantly, with notable gains for Jin'an Guoji and Qingyi Optoelectronics [25][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The retail sales of passenger cars in China from January 1 to 19, 2025, reached 1.05 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 5% and a month-on-month decline of 27%. However, wholesale sales for the same period increased by 25% year-on-year, totaling 1.244 million units [12][33]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for domestic automotive consumption driven by supportive policies, despite a decrease in retail sales [12]. - The report notes that the inventory level of automotive dealers has increased compared to November 2024, with a comprehensive inventory coefficient of approximately 1.14 [12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector rose by 1.74% from January 20 to 24, 2025, outperforming the overall A-share market, ranking 7th among all primary sectors [14][16]. - The commercial vehicle segment saw the highest increase of 4.62%, while the passenger vehicle segment experienced a decline of 0.27% during the same period [16]. Industry Data Tracking - In December 2024, total automotive sales were approximately 3.489 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 5.2% and a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [22][23]. - The market share of new energy vehicles in December 2024 was about 45.8%, with a significant increase in sales and exports of new energy vehicles [31][27]. Industry Dynamics - Strategic partnerships are forming, such as SAIC Motor's collaboration with Meituan to enhance market potential and service quality [39]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to promote the development of battery swap models and support the electric vehicle industry [39]. Company Announcements - Companies like Dual Ring Transmission and Seres are projecting significant increases in net profits for 2024, with estimates of 24.45% to 26.90% and 302.32% to 309.30% respectively [41]. - Wencan Co. anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 118.11% to 177.60% for 2024 [41].

Trade Data Analysis - In December, China's export value increased by 10.7% year-on-year, while imports rose by 1.0%, resulting in a trade surplus of $104.84 billion[1] - For the full year 2024, cumulative exports grew by 5.9% compared to a decline of 4.7% in 2023, while imports increased by 1.1% compared to a decline of 5.5% in 2023, leading to a total trade surplus of $992.16 billion, a 20.7% increase from 2023[1] - The export price index stood at 94.6, while the export quantity index was at 117.3, indicating ongoing price pressure despite quantity growth[1] Export Product Structure - The share of electromechanical products in exports rose to 59.4% in 2024, with a cumulative export growth of 7.5%, compared to a decline of 2.4% in 2023[2] - High-tech product exports accounted for 24.7% of total exports, with a cumulative growth of 4.8%, recovering from a decline of 10.8% in 2023[2] - Key products showed varied performance: automotive exports grew by 15.5% (down from 69.0% in 2023), while household appliances surged by 14.1% (up from 3.8% in 2023)[2] Regional Export Performance - In December, exports to the U.S. increased by 15.6%, while exports to the EU rose by 8.8%[3] - Exports to ASEAN countries surged by 18.9%, with significant growth in exports to Singapore (6.4%), Thailand (28.5%), and Vietnam (13.9%)[3] - Exports to Brazil and India showed modest growth, with increases of 5.6% and 0.0%, respectively[3] Impact of Strong Dollar - The U.S. dollar index rose from 101.2 on October 1 to 108.5 by December 31, affecting emerging market exports[4] - The strong dollar may suppress emerging market currencies, benefiting their exports, but could also limit monetary policy flexibility in major economies, impacting global demand recovery[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for the electronics sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - AI Edge: Baidu Smart Cloud collaborates with DPVR to develop AI glasses, indicating a positive outlook for the related supply chain [12][30]. - Consumer Electronics: The Ministry of Commerce has clarified subsidy types and standards for mobile phones, tablets, and smartwatches, which is expected to benefit the related supply chain [13][32]. - Advanced Packaging: GlobalFoundries announced an investment of $575 million to build an advanced packaging and photonics center in New York, highlighting the growing importance of advanced packaging in the computing era [14][30]. - Domestic Substitution: It is projected that domestic semiconductor equipment sales will grow by 35% in 2024, exceeding 110 billion yuan, indicating a speeding up of the domestic semiconductor industry chain [15][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - AI Edge: The collaboration between Baidu Smart Cloud and DPVR aims to innovate in AI glasses, which is expected to benefit the supply chain [12]. - Consumer Electronics: Subsidies for digital products are expected to stimulate demand and benefit the supply chain [13]. - Advanced Packaging: The establishment of a new center by GlobalFoundries is anticipated to enhance production capabilities in advanced packaging [14]. - Domestic Substitution: The growth in domestic semiconductor equipment sales is expected to accelerate the domestic industry chain [15]. 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 2.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.29 percentage points [19]. - The performance of sub-sectors included Components (6.96%), Consumer Electronics (6.06%), and Others (5.79%) [22]. 3. Industry News - Baidu Smart Cloud and DPVR's partnership focuses on AI glasses development, enhancing the smart wearable market [30]. - GlobalFoundries' investment in New York aims to provide comprehensive manufacturing capabilities for key semiconductor areas [14]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment sales are projected to grow significantly, indicating a robust domestic market [31]. 4. Company Dynamics - Huahai Qingke's CMP equipment shows strong performance in various chip manufacturing sectors, indicating a growing market share [33]. - Wolong Nuclear Materials is delivering 224G high-speed communication cables, reflecting strong market demand [34]. - Tianjian Co. anticipates shipments of AI glasses in the first half of the year, indicating ongoing product development [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the computer industry [6]. Core Insights - Nvidia has launched a large AI training database named Nemotron-CC, containing a total of 6.3 trillion tokens, with 1.9 trillion being synthetic data. The development utilized model classifiers and rephrasing techniques to ensure high quality and diversity of data [1][19]. - Adobe has introduced a series of new generative AI tools aimed at automating labor-intensive production tasks, including the "Firefly Bulk Create" application, which allows users to quickly adjust the size of up to 10,000 images or replace all backgrounds in one click [2][19]. - Salesforce's CEO stated that Microsoft Copilot has low usage rates and has not provided transformative experiences for customers, who prefer tools like ChatGPT [3][19]. - iFLYTEK has released the X1 deep reasoning model, which is the first domestically trained model with deep thinking and reasoning capabilities based on a fully domestic computing power platform. It claims to achieve industry-leading results with lower computing power [4][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with Nvidia's training database and iFLYTEK's deep reasoning model, along with Adobe's new generative AI tools, the AI industry chain is expected to see continued improvement. It recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the IaaS layer, specifically mentioning companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMAZON) [5][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the computer industry [7] Core Insights - The establishment of the Low Altitude Economy Development Department by the National Development and Reform Commission is expected to create investment opportunities within the industry [2] - Unitree Technology's B2-W industrial quadruped robot has demonstrated advanced capabilities, including a speed of over 6 meters per second and a load-bearing capacity of 20 kg for over 4 hours [1][30] - The largest Huawei HarmonyOS ecological center has been inaugurated in Wuhan, which will serve as a comprehensive public service platform for the region [3][32] Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Computer Index fell by 4.25%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 5.61 percentage points [4][18] - The performance of the computer sector ranked 29th among 31 first-level sub-industries [4][19] - The secondary industry performance showed declines in software development (-4.7%), computer equipment (-1.62%), and IT services II (-5.79%) [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the low-altitude economy sector, particularly companies like Lais Information, due to the establishment of the Low Altitude Economy Development Department [5][16] - For humanoid robots, companies such as Nengke Technology are recommended [5][16] - The Huawei supply chain is highlighted, with recommendations for companies like Chinasoft International and Softcom Power [5][16]