汽车 行业研究/行业投资策略 自主整车向上，产业升级加速 ——汽车行业 2025 年投资策略 ◼ 总量微增，自主向上 预计 2025 年乘用车销量 2809 万，同比约+2%：根据乘联分会的数据， 2024 年 1-11 月，我国乘用车累计批发销量为 2411.5 万辆，同比增长 5.6%；新能源乘用车的累计批发销量为 1071.6 万辆，同比增长 38.1%。 根据盖世汽车的测算，2025 年中国国产乘用车整体销量有望超过 2800 万，其中内销在 2260 万左右，出口在 550 万左右。新能源销量有望超 过 1550 万辆，同比增幅超过 25%。 自主品牌强势崛起：根据中国汽车工业协会的数据，2024 年 1-11 月， 自主品牌乘用车累计销量为 1589.60 万辆，同比增长 23.02%。自主品 牌的月度销量占比也持续走高，从 2024 年 1 月的 62.19%增长至 2024 年 11 月的 69.88%。根据乘联分会，比亚迪、吉利、上汽通用五菱、 长安、奇瑞等新能源表现很强，成为新能源的中流砥柱。出口方面， 2024 年 1-11 月中国汽车实现出口 584 万台，同比增长 23%，中国汽 车 ...

"AI+终端"有望引领新一轮消费电子创新周期。AI 眼镜有望超越 TWS 耳机成 为下一个热门终端，行业规模或超千亿。根据贝哲斯报告，2023 年全球智能眼镜 市场规模达 394.73 亿元，预计到 2029 年将达到 1067.78 亿元，23-29 年 CAGR 为 18.56%。AI 耳机有望加速换机迭代。根据头豹研究院，预计 2024 至 2028 年，AI 智能耳机行业市场规模由 73.18 亿元增长至 1646.75 亿元，CAGR 为 117.80%。我 们认为，智能体设备集成人工智能技术，通过语音交互和大模型 AI 助手，为用户 提供更加便捷丰富的体验。当前 AI 终端（眼镜/耳机）市场正处于快速增长的前 夜，随着产品不断迭代更新，需求逐步攀升，相关产业链有望持续受益。 "AI+自主可控"仍是半导体产业发展主旋律。GPGPU 与 ASIC 并驾齐驱，算力 芯片及相关产业链进入高速发展阶段。根据前瞻产业研究院报告，2024 年中国人 工智能芯片市场规模有望达到 1447 亿元。根据华经产业研究院，2023 年中国半 导体设备零部件市场规模约为 1281 亿元，2019-2023 CAGR 约为 ...

证券研究报告 2024年12月31日 行业：轻工制造 增持（维持） 以旧换新仍可期，出口回暖待时机 ——2025年轻工家居行业投资策略 分析师： 黄骥 E-mail： huangji@yongxingsec.com SAC 编号：S1760523090002 分析师： 李瑶芝 E-mail： liyaozhi@yongxingsec.com SAC 编 号 ：S1760524020001 核心观点 ◼ 25年补贴政策有望延续，龙头公司或充分受益。财政部在本轮消费品以旧换新方面，直接向地方安排1500亿元左右超长期特别国 债资金，支持地方自主实施消费品以旧换新。家具补贴效果显著，11月家具零售额同比+10.5%，环比连续3个月提升。财政部长 表示2025年将"扩大消费品以旧换新的品种和规模"，我们认为，以旧换新25年延续概率较高，我们按照25年中央家居补贴 100/200/300亿元测算，若其中有30%的增量由于补贴政策拉动，预计对家具行业整体增速的拉动分别为3.2%/6.3%/9.5%，若按照 中指研究院对25年地产销售面积增速的预测-6.3%计算，预计25年整体家居行业增速分别为-3.1%/0%/3.2%。 ...

证券研究报告 2025年1月1日 行业：石油石化 增持（维持） ◼ 1）国际油价有望延续高位震荡，同时，能源央企大力推动油气增储上产 ，稳步推进绿色低碳转型，建议关注中国石油、中国海油等。 ◼ 2）海洋油气投资加快，油服板块景气上行，同时，随着技术崛起及"一 带一路"战略的推动，海外拓展有望加速，建议关注中海油服、海油工程 等。 ◼ 3）在能源安全及政策推动下，新疆煤化工项目及天然气等资源开发提速 ，建议关注宝丰能源、新天然气等。 ◼ 4）炼化企业依托于一体化平台布局石化新材料，叠加产品价差修复预期 ，景气向上可期，建议关注卫星化学、恒力石化等 目录/Contents 01 02 03 04 国际油价高位震荡，利好上游高股息板块 海洋油气投资加快，油服板块景气上行 投资建议及风险提示 多元布局叠加价差修复，炼化景气向上可期 05 新疆资源开发提速，看好天然气与煤化工板块 上游格局向好，下游景气修复 ——2025年石油化工行业投资策略 分析师：赵飞 Tel: E-mail: zhaofei@yongxingsec.com SAC编号：S1760524040002 主要观点 ◼ 风险提示：油价大幅波动风险，需求不 ...

证券研究报告 2024年12月30日 行业：传媒 增持（维持） IP助力悦己消费，"谷子经济"打开新的空间 ——传媒行业2025年年度策略 目录/Contents 01 02 03 04 05 行情回顾-整体跑输指数 游戏行业稳健增长，IP生态成为核心引擎 影视板块票房有望修复，微短剧增长潜力较大 广告行业保持平稳增长，AIGC落地较快 谷子经济快速增长，IP是核心驱动力 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 1.1 行业回顾：今年以来传媒板块表现弱于大盘 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 ◼ 年初至今，截至2024年11月30日，申万传媒板块整体涨幅为8.57%，同期创业板综合指数区间涨跌幅为 15.13%，沪深300区间涨跌幅为14.15%，申万传媒指数均跑输创业板综合指数和沪深300指数。 ◼ 31个申万一级行业排名第13。 ◼ 截止到11月30日，SW传媒的PE约为40.1倍，处于历史估值中枢附近。 分析师：应豪 SAC编号：S1760524050002，E-mail：yinghao@yongxingsec.com 分析师：黄伯乐 SAC编号：S1760520110001，E-mail：huangbole@yon ...

Group 1: Industrial Enterprises Performance - Industrial enterprises' cumulative operating income from January to November decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous value of 1.9%[4] - The total profit of industrial enterprises for the same period showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.7%, worsening from the previous decline of 4.3%[4] - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 7.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 10.0%[4] Group 2: Asset and Liability Trends - From January to November, the total assets of industrial enterprises increased by 4.7% year-on-year, up from 4.6% previously, indicating a reversal of the previous downward trend[4] - The total liabilities of industrial enterprises also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, compared to 4.5% previously, suggesting a rebound in the balance sheet[4] Group 3: PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1%, slightly down from 50.3% in November, remaining above the critical threshold for three consecutive months[4] - The construction PMI showed a significant recovery, rising to 53.2% from 49.7% in the previous month[4] - The service sector PMI increased to 52.0%, up from 50.1%, indicating further improvement in economic activity[4] Group 4: Inventory and Price Indices - The production index in the manufacturing PMI for December was 52.1%, down from 52.4% in November, while the purchasing quantity index rose to 51.5% from 51.0%[5] - The raw material inventory index remained below the critical value at 48.3%, slightly up from 48.2%, and the finished goods inventory index was at 47.9%, up from 47.4%[5] - The purchasing price index in December was 48.2%, down from 49.8%, and the factory price index was 46.7%, down from 47.7%, indicating downward pressure on prices[18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [28][36]. Core Insights - The retail sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with a notable decline in the index by 2.13% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.48 percentage points [29][36]. - The report highlights a recovery in offline sales driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption, suggesting a gradual improvement in consumer confidence [29][46]. - Key investment themes include the growth of physical retail spaces that cater to emotional value consumption and the ongoing expansion of e-commerce platforms [30][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The retail sector ranked 22nd among 30 sectors in the CITIC index this week, with significant gains in sub-sectors like supermarkets and medical beauty [19][39]. - Year-to-date, the retail sector has increased by 14.57%, still lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 1.46 percentage points [36]. 2. Industry Data Tracking - In November, the total retail sales reached 4.38 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [46]. - The online retail penetration rate remains high, with online sales accounting for 26.7% of total retail sales [47]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Major Events - Notable developments include the opening of new stores by major players like Walmart and Hema, indicating aggressive expansion strategies [58][60]. - The report mentions the collaboration between Ai Ying Shi and Bandai to create a Gundam base in Suzhou, which is expected to attract younger consumers [8]. 4. Company Performance - The report identifies top-performing stocks in the retail sector, with Dongbai Group and Zhongbai Group showing significant gains of 32.87% and 28.38% respectively [23][39]. - Conversely, companies like Wenfeng and Dongfang Group faced substantial declines, with losses of 19.89% and 19.24% respectively [43][39].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [7][19]. Core Insights - High-speed copper connections: The GB200 features 5000 NVLink copper cables, and the related industry chain is expected to continue benefiting. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, the demand for AI servers and high-throughput switches is increasing, which will drive the growth of high-speed backplane connectors. The global backplane connector market was valued at 2 billion USD in 2021 and is projected to reach 5 billion USD by 2031 [4][31]. - Domestic substitution: It is anticipated that the sales revenue of domestic semiconductor equipment will grow by 35% in 2024, exceeding 110 billion CNY, with a market share in mainland China increasing to 30%, up 5 percentage points from 2023 [5][74]. - Advanced packaging: Samsung is expanding its advanced packaging capabilities, which is expected to benefit the related industry chain. The importance of packaging in HBM products is increasing, prompting Samsung to invest in both domestic and overseas production bases [72]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - AI edge: The penetration rate of AI functions in the smart glasses market is expected to exceed 60% by 2025, with the related industry chain likely to benefit continuously [71]. - High-speed copper connections: Benefiting from the development of AI servers, the industry chain is expected to benefit, with recommendations to focus on companies like Wolong Materials, Jingda Co., and others [23]. - Advanced packaging: The industry chain is expected to see accelerated growth due to major semiconductor manufacturers' continued investment in advanced packaging [23]. 2. Market Review - During the week of December 23-27, the A-share Shenwan Electronics Index fell by 0.66%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.01 percentage points [76]. - The performance of the Shenwan electronic secondary industry was mixed, with components rising by 1.32% and electronic chemicals II falling by 3.69% [10][47]. 3. Industry News - SK Hynix received a direct subsidy of 458 million USD from the U.S. Department of Commerce to support its AI chip packaging facility in Indiana [15][30]. - Longxin Technology announced that it is providing the latest VR Quest3 display module for Meta and is accelerating production expansion [18][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from the national housing and urban construction work meeting held on December 24, 2024, which emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and promoting high-quality development in housing and urban construction [7][15]. - The report highlights the importance of optimizing housing supply systems and increasing the supply of affordable housing to meet the rigid housing demands of urban residents [12][41]. - The report suggests that the real estate market is likely to stabilize, with expectations for further optimization of restrictive policies in core cities and continued improvement in policies related to urban village renovations [15][17]. Market Review - The A-share construction materials index fell by 0.59% during the week of December 23-27, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.95 percentage points [18]. - Among the sub-sectors, the decoration materials sector performed well with a 1.08% increase, while the cement sector declined by 1.91% [22]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic glass fiber market saw a price increase of 100-200 yuan per ton for mainstream products as of December 27, 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 16.93% [7][28]. - Cement prices have shown a downward trend, with the average price for bagged cement at 349.88 yuan per ton, down 0.32% from the previous month [30][58]. - The floating glass market experienced a slight price adjustment, with the average price at 1408.62 yuan per ton, down 1.73% month-on-month and 29.92% year-on-year [31][75]. Company Dynamics - The report highlights significant stock performance, with companies like Huayi Co. and Ningbo Fuda showing substantial increases of 92.65% and 77.4% respectively since the beginning of the year [26][27]. - Conversely, companies such as ST Shentian and Jingan Photovoltaic faced significant declines of -72.83% and -50.69% respectively [26][27].