| --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 江苏省启动 7.65GW 省管海风竞配，看好海风成长性 | | | | ◼ 核心观点 事件： ...

商贸零售 行业研究/行业点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 11 月社零同比+3%，线下持续回暖 ——11 月社零数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 12 月 16 日，国家统计局公布 2024 年 11 月份社零数据。11 月我国社 零总额为 4.38 万亿元，同比增长 3.0%（增速环比-1.8pct）；其中，除 汽车以外的消费品零售额 3.90 万亿元，同比增长 2.5%（增速环比2.4pct）。1-11 月，社零总额 44.27 万亿，同比增长 3.5%；其中，除汽 车以外的消费品零售额 39.80 万亿，增长 3.7%。我们认为，11 月社零 增速回落，主要系"双 11"大促前置，与 23 年错配。 电商渗透率维持高位，线下便利店专业店表现较优。1-11 月份，全国 网上零售额 14.03 万亿（yoy+7.4%）；其中实物商品网上零售额 11.81 万亿(yoy+6.8%)，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 26.7%，电商渗透率 环比+0.8pct；在实物商品网上零售额中，吃类/穿类/用类商品分别 +16.2%/2.8%/6.3%。我们推算 1-11 月线下零售额为 32.47 万亿 （yoy+4.6 ...

电力设备 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 江门川岛一、二海上风电集中送出工程项目获核准 ——风电行业周报（20241209-20241213） ◼ 核心观点 海上风电加快建设节奏。1）根据中广核电子商务平台，12 月 9 日， 中广核广东江门川岛一 400MW 海上风电场风电机组设备采购（一标 段、二标段），中广核广东阳江三山岛五 500MW 海上风电场风电机组 设备采购（一标段、二标段）中标候选人公示，明阳智能、远景能源、 金风科技预中标。2）根据国家能源集团广东公司之声，12 月 9 日， 江门川岛一、二海上风电集中送出工程项目获核准批复。该项目送出 总容量为 800MW，风电机组发出电能升压后通过 2 回 500kV 海底电 缆送出。3）根据风电头条，国家电投大连市花园口 I、II 海上风电项 目（合计 400MW）风电机组（含塔筒）由远景能源中标，中标均价 3240 元/kW。 ◼ 数据跟踪 本周（20241209-20241213）板块行情回顾：1）本周电力设备板块涨跌 幅-1.73%，在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名中位列第 30 名。2）本周 风电设 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its fundamentals and expected performance relative to market benchmarks [5][90][99]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the precipitated silica industry, with significant growth potential through high-end transformation and expansion of production capacity [4][5]. - The demand for high-dispersion silica, particularly in green tires, is expected to rise due to the automotive industry's growth and the trend towards sustainable production [4][5]. - The company is actively expanding its global footprint and enhancing its technological capabilities to support high-end product development [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Leader in Precipitated Silica, High-End Transformation Growth Expected - The company is the largest producer of precipitated silica in China and one of the largest globally, with a complete industrial chain from raw materials to final products [15][16]. - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.03% in revenue and 11.21% in net profit from 2019 to 2023, with a significant increase in net profit expected in 2024 [26][28]. 2. Green Tires on the Rise, Precipitated Silica Industry Prosperity Continues - The demand for precipitated silica is expected to grow, particularly in the tire industry, where it can replace carbon black and reduce rolling resistance by about 30% [4][54]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trend of domestic substitution in the precipitated silica market, as the industry is expected to consolidate [41][43]. 3. Global Layout and Technological Leadership Support High-End Transformation - The company has a production capacity of 330,000 tons per year, with plans to increase capacity by an additional 100,000 tons through new projects [56][58]. - The company has established a strong technological platform, focusing on R&D to develop various high-end silica products, including those for oral care and biomass-derived silica [71][76]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately 503 million, 613 million, and 711 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15x, 12x, and 10x [5][90]. - The report emphasizes the company's potential for growth driven by the expansion of high-value-added products and the successful implementation of new projects [5][90].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has signed a sales contract with GIM Graphene Fibre Limited, amounting to approximately USD 171.68 million, which includes the provision of six production lines. This contract is expected to significantly impact the company's future operating performance positively [4]. - The global and Chinese carbon fiber markets are experiencing steady growth, with the global demand increasing from 53,000 tons in 2015 to 115,000 tons in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.17%. In China, the demand rose from 16,789 tons to 69,075 tons during the same period, with a CAGR of 19.34% [4]. - The company aims to accelerate its market expansion in new material equipment, which is anticipated to enhance its sales scale and business performance [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Contract Overview - The company signed a sales contract with GIM Graphene Fibre Limited on December 2, 2024, for a total amount of USD 171.68 million, including equipment worth USD 164.18 million and a deposit of USD 7.5 million. The contract stipulates the phased delivery of six production lines, with the first line to be executed immediately and subsequent lines in 2025 and 2026 [4]. Market Growth - The carbon fiber market is expanding, with significant growth in both global and Chinese markets. The global demand for carbon fiber has increased significantly, and China remains the largest market for carbon fiber, indicating a robust growth trajectory [4]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026, expecting revenues of CNY 1.776 billion, CNY 2.389 billion, and CNY 3.005 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.3%, 34.5%, and 25.8%. Corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be CNY 0.47, CNY 0.80, and CNY 1.12 [5][7].

电力设备 行业研究/行业点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 点 评 辽宁省启动 7GW 省管海风竞配，海风建设提速 ◼ 核心观点 事件： 2024 年 12 月 16 日，辽宁省发改委发布对《辽宁省 2024 年度海上风 电建设方案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见的公告。此次征求意见时间 为 2024 年 12 月 16 日-2024 年 12 月 18 日。 根据《征求意见稿》，辽宁省管海域海上风电总规模 700 万千瓦，其 中：大连市 200 万千瓦、丹东市 350 万千瓦、营口市 70 万千瓦、葫芦 岛市 80 万千瓦。 《征求意见稿》要求，项目业主应注重规模化开发，至少开发建设 50 万千瓦以上规模海上风电项目。注意集约利用海洋资源，优化海底电 缆送出通道布置。除大连市 DL2、DL3 项目可以采取单条海底电缆送 出通道外，其他区域每条海底电缆送出通道容量不得低于 50 万千瓦。 辽宁省十四五规划保障海风需求。根据辽宁省人民政府办公厅发布的 《辽宁省"十四五"海洋经济发展规划》，到 2025 年辽宁省海上风电 累计并网容量有望达 4.05GW。根据 CWEA，截至 2023 年底，辽宁省 ...

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The 2-year and 10-year government bond yields in China continued to decline, with the 10-year yield falling to 1.7771% and the 2-year yield to 1.1770%, resulting in a narrowing yield spread of 0.6001% [18][22][24] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net cash injection of 188.4 billion yuan in the open market, while MLF saw a net withdrawal of 14.5 billion yuan [18][22] - In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.40%, and the dollar index increased to 106.94, leading to a marginal widening of the China-U.S. 10-year bond yield spread to -2.62% [22][24] Group 2: Market Liquidity - In December 2024, 38 new public funds were established, including 14 equity funds, with a total issuance of 675 million units [5][32] - The number of newly established ETF funds in 2024 decreased year-on-year, with 150 new ETFs launched compared to 157 in 2023, and 4 new equity ETFs in December with an issuance of 15.3 million units [5][32] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of approximately 198 billion yuan in the week of December 9-13, with a total net inflow of 691.3 billion yuan for the year, marking a historical high [5][37] Group 3: Margin Financing - The average margin buying amount increased to 178.9 billion yuan, up 12.4% week-on-week, with the total margin balance reaching approximately 1.88 trillion yuan [46][47] - The sectors with the highest net margin financing were media (approximately 3.37 billion yuan), machinery (approximately 2.85 billion yuan), and food and beverage (approximately 1.92 billion yuan), totaling about 8.14 billion yuan [47] - The margin financing balance for the electronics sector was approximately 210.9 billion yuan, accounting for 3.01% of its market capitalization [47] Group 4: Fundraising - In December, 5 companies conducted IPOs, raising approximately 3.26 billion yuan, while the total equity financing scale for the month was 27.15 billion yuan [52][53] - A total of 8 listed companies participated in private placements in December, raising a total of 21.3 billion yuan [52][53]

宏观研究/宏观点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 点 评 财政收入进一步修复 ◼ 核心观点 ——11 月财政收支分析 1.从当月同比来看，11 月公共财政收入进一步加速，但支出增速边际 回落。11 月公共财政收入当月同比 11.02 %（前值 5.49 %），公共财政 支出当月同比 3.78 %（前值 10.37 %）。 2.从累计同比来看，财政收入压力进一步缓解，支出继续加力。1-11 月 公共财政收入累计同比-0.6 %（前值-1.3 %），公共财政支出累计同比 2.8 %（前值 2.7 %）；政府性基金收入累计同比-18.4 %（前值-19.0 %）， 政府性基金支出累计同比-2.6 %（前值-3.8 %）。 3.公共财政收入结构：税收收入与非税收入都在改善。1-11 月公共财 政收入 199,010 亿元。分中央与地方来看，中央财政收入占比 44.9%， 同比-2.5 %（前值-3.9 %），地方本级财政收入占比 55.1%，同比 1.1 % （前值 0.9 %）；分税收与非税收入来看，税收收入占比 81.4% ，同比 -3.9 %（前值-4.5 %），非税收入同比 17.0 %（前 ...

纺织服饰 行业研究/行业点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 点 评 11 月社零同比+3.0%，以旧换新相关品类表现亮眼，化妆品、 服饰类双月数据保持增长 ——11 月社零数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 2024 年 11 月社零同比增长 3.0%，增速环比回落 1.8pct。据国家统计局， 11 月份，社会消费品零售总额 43763 亿元，同比增长 3.0%，低于 wind 一 致预期的 5.30%，增速环比下降 1.8pct。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售 额 38998 亿元，增长 2.5%，增速环比下降 2.4pct。但将 10、11 月两个月 合并来看，社零总额平均增长 3.9%，比三季度增速加快 1.2pct，表明四季 度以来市场销售总体回升。我们认为，11 月增速的回落，主要是受"双十 一"促销前移及上年同期基数较高等短期因素影响，后续随着消费品以旧 换新等促消费政策持续带动，实体店铺零售继续改善，叠加年节来临带动 消费需求提升，市场总体将延续稳定恢复态势。 从渠道看，线上消费持续增长，实体店铺稳步改善。据推算，11 月实物 商品网上零售额 14729 亿元，占社零总额的 33.7%，线 ...

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