电力设备 行业研究/行业点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 点 评 光伏制造行业规范条件出台，新增和改扩 建项目门槛提高 ◼ 核心观点 11 月 20 日，工信部对《光伏制造行业规范条件》和《光伏制造行业 规范公告管理暂行办法》进行了修订，其中提到，引导地方依据资源 禀赋和产业基础合理布局光伏制造项目，鼓励集约化、集群化发展。 引导光伏企业减少单纯扩大产能的光伏制造项目，加强技术创新、提 高产品质量、降低生产成本。新建和改扩建光伏制造项目，最低资本 金比例为 30%。 规范条件要求，每年用于研发及工艺改进的费用不低于总销售额的 3% 且不少于 1000 万元人民币，鼓励企业取得省级以上独立研发机构、技 术中心或高新技术企业资质；申报符合规范名单时上一年实际产量不 低于上一年实际产能的 50%。我们认为对企业研发费用占比以及产能 利用率提出要求有利于驱动企业持续创新迭代、有序扩张。 多晶硅新建和改扩建项目综合电耗要求提高至 53 千瓦时/千克。根据 7 月工信部发布的《光伏制造行业规范条件（2024 年本）》（征求意见 稿），新建和改扩建项目还原电耗小于 44kwh/kg，综合电耗小于 57k ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [7]. Core Insights - The demand for submarine cables is expected to grow due to accelerated offshore wind construction both domestically and internationally, with significant increases in installed capacity projected for the coming years [4][5]. - The industry is characterized by high barriers to entry, leading to a concentrated market with major players like Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optic-Electric dominating the market [4][5]. - The trend towards higher voltage levels and flexible direct current technology in submarine cables is evident, enhancing the unit value of these products [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Offshore Wind Construction and Cable Demand Growth - Global offshore wind capacity is projected to exceed 410 GW from 2024 to 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of 20% [4][15]. - Europe is identified as a key market, with expected new installations of 5.6 GW in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 51% [4][17]. - Domestic offshore wind projects are accelerating, with an anticipated addition of nearly 15 GW by 2025, more than doubling the previous year's figures [4][23]. 2. Trends in Submarine Cable Technology - The voltage levels for array cables are transitioning from 35 kV to 66 kV, while outgoing cables are moving from 220 kV to 330/500 kV [4][35]. - Flexible direct current technology is increasingly being utilized for long-distance transmission, with several offshore wind projects already employing this technology [4][35]. 3. High Barriers and Market Concentration - The submarine cable industry has significant technical and performance requirements, creating high entry barriers [4][35]. - Major players in the domestic market, such as Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optic-Electric, hold substantial market shares due to their established reputations and project delivery experiences [4][5]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic companies like Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optic-Electric, which are expected to benefit from the improving domestic offshore wind market [5]. - Companies that have secured overseas orders since 2023, such as Dongfang Cable and Zhongtian Technology, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - Nvidia's FY25Q3 performance continues to show high growth, with revenue reaching approximately $35.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 94% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17%, exceeding previous guidance [2] - The company's GAAP net profit for FY25Q3 is approximately $19.3 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 109% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 16% [2] - The guidance for FY25Q4 indicates a positive outlook, with expected revenue of $37.5 billion and slight decreases in gross margin [2] Revenue Breakdown - Data Center: FY25Q3 revenue is $30.8 billion, up 112% year-over-year and 17% quarter-over-quarter [2] - Gaming and AI PC: FY25Q3 revenue is $3.3 billion, up 15% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter [2] - Professional Visualization: FY25Q3 revenue is $0.486 billion, up 17% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter [2] - Automotive and Robotics: FY25Q3 revenue is $0.449 billion, up 72% year-over-year and 30% quarter-over-quarter [2] Industry Developments - Nvidia's data center business is expanding globally, with significant deployments of its H200 and Blackwell architectures in cloud services by major companies like AWS and Microsoft [2] - Collaborations with telecom operators such as T-Mobile and Ericsson are underway to accelerate the commercialization of AI-RAN [2] - Nvidia's AI software is being utilized by leading consulting firms to help various industries accelerate AI adoption [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market shows a slight increase in margin trading balance, while overall trading activity has decreased [4][17][21] - The stock-bond yield spread has decreased, indicating a relatively high investment cost-effectiveness in the A-share market, with the CSI 300 dividend yield at 2.95% and the 10-year government bond yield at 2.09% [4][14][17] - The trading volume of the CSI 500 has seen the largest decline, with a decrease of 33.92% compared to the previous week [21][22] Group 2 - The PE valuation percentiles for major indices have generally declined, with the Wind ChiNext leading the drop by 6.6 percentage points [6][25][31] - The growth style has experienced the largest decline in PE valuation percentiles, down by 5.2 percentage points, while the financial sector has seen a mixed performance [31][32][41] - The banking sector's PE valuation percentile has increased by 2.8 percentage points, contrasting with the significant decline in the home appliance sector, which dropped by 6.3 percentage points [7][41]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [9] Core Views - Recent economic data from the US shows recovery, with the dollar index strengthening, leading to fluctuations in gold prices. The initial jobless claims were reported at 217,000, lower than the expected 223,000, indicating resilience in the US job market. The October CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, halting a six-month decline, while the core CPI remained stable at 3.3%. The PPI also exceeded expectations, suggesting inflation is not balanced, which may affect the Fed's interest rate decisions. The dollar index reached a high of 106.67, putting downward pressure on gold prices in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, gold remains a valuable asset due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising US government debt [4][24][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to experience short-term fluctuations but retains long-term investment value. Copper and aluminum prices are projected to improve in the long term despite short-term impacts from the cancellation of export tax rebates. The supply situation for rare earths from Myanmar remains uncertain, with potential cost increases due to new resource fees [7][26][29]. 2. Weekly Sector Performance Review - As of November 15, 2024, the non-ferrous metals index decreased by 5.71% week-on-week, ranking 25th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 10.28% [30][32]. 3. Price and Inventory Performance 3.1 Precious Metals - As of November 15, 2024, COMEX gold closed at $2567.4 per ounce, down 4.62% from the previous week. COMEX silver closed at $30.335 per ounce, down 3.47% [43][44]. 3.2 Industrial Metals - On November 15, 2024, LME copper and SHFE copper prices were reported at $8969 per ton and ¥73860 per ton, respectively, reflecting decreases of 4.92% and 4.2% week-on-week. LME aluminum prices were $2663.5 per ton, up 1.39%, while SHFE aluminum prices were ¥20800 per ton, down 4.1% [5][50]. 3.3 Rare Metals and New Materials - The supply of rare earths from Myanmar is uncertain, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide decreasing by 1.18%, 2.57%, and 2.18%, respectively. Prices for magnesium ingots, antimony, germanium dioxide, molybdenum, tungsten bars, titanium sponge, vanadium, and gallium also showed declines [6][27]. 4. Important News of the Week - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products, effective December 1, 2024, which may widen the price gap between domestic and international markets [5][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4]. Core Insights - The recent issuance of guidelines for AI applications in the healthcare sector is expected to catalyze investment opportunities along the industry chain. The guidelines focus on integrating AI with medical service management, public health services, health industry development, and medical education and research, outlining 84 subfields for application [15][16]. - The report emphasizes that AI in healthcare is receiving strong policy support from the government, with various national and local policies aimed at promoting the integration of AI, cloud computing, and big data in drug development and clinical research [16]. Market Review - During the week of November 11-15, 2024, the A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector fell by 3.92%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.63 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 0.02 percentage points. Among 31 first-level sub-industries, the pharmaceutical sector ranked 18th in terms of weekly performance [17]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index decreased by 5.52%, but outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 0.76 percentage points, ranking 6th among 12 first-level sub-industries [17]. Company Dynamics Company Announcements - Notable announcements include the receipt of medical device registration certificates and clinical trial application acceptances by various companies, indicating ongoing regulatory progress in the sector [30]. Financing Dynamics - Recent financing activities include a planned issuance of shares by ST Miao Pharmaceutical, aimed at raising funds for liquidity [32]. Unlocking Dynamics - Several companies have had shares unlocked recently, with significant volumes and market values, indicating potential changes in shareholding structures and liquidity in the market [35].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In October, public fiscal revenue increased by 5.49% year-on-year, up from 2.45% in the previous month, while public fiscal expenditure rose by 10.37%, marking the first double-digit growth of the year[4]. - Cumulative public fiscal revenue from January to October showed a decline of 1.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 2.2%, while cumulative expenditure increased by 2.7% compared to 2.0% previously[4]. Fiscal Structure Insights - Total public fiscal revenue from January to October reached 184,981 billion yuan, with central revenue accounting for 44.6% (down 3.9% year-on-year) and local revenue at 55.4% (up 0.9% year-on-year)[4]. - Tax revenue constituted 81.5% of total revenue, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.5%, while non-tax revenue increased by 15.3%[4]. Key Tax Revenue Performance - Major tax categories showed varying performance: domestic VAT decreased by 5.1%, corporate income tax by 2.9%, and personal income tax by 3.9% year-on-year[4]. - The cumulative year-on-year growth for domestic consumption tax was 2.4%, an increase from 1.6% previously[4]. Expenditure Breakdown - Public fiscal expenditure totaled 221,465 billion yuan from January to October, with central expenditure at 14.7% (up 7.9% year-on-year) and local expenditure at 85.3% (up 1.8% year-on-year)[4]. - The highest growth in expenditure categories was seen in agriculture, forestry, and water affairs at 10.4% year-on-year, while health expenditure fell by 8.5%[4]. Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue from January to October was 35,462 billion yuan, down 19.0% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer revenue at 26,971 billion yuan, a decline of 22.9%[4]. - Government fund expenditure was 70,107 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with land use rights-related expenditure at 36,097 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.0%[4]. Investment Outlook - The gradual recovery of fiscal revenue, coupled with the introduction of a debt resolution plan on November 8, is expected to enhance fiscal expenditure growth, supporting overall demand recovery and further revenue improvement[5].

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Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Increase" (Maintain) [7] Core Viewpoints - The retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 45,396 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, driven by the pre-sale of Double Eleven and an extended cycle, leading to a significant increase in discretionary consumption [5][17] - Domestic sports brands performed well during the Double Eleven sales event, with total e-commerce sales reaching 14,418 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%, and clothing sales accounting for 1,664 billion yuan, up 21.4% [5][18] - Textile and apparel exports showed a positive trend, with October exports amounting to 25.48 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [5][19] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints of the Week - Retail sales in October were 45,396 billion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [17] - The growth in discretionary consumption was notable, particularly in cosmetics and apparel, with cosmetics up 40.1% year-on-year [17][35] 2. Industry Dynamics 2.1. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 3.29%, while the textile and apparel sector dropped by 3.38%, underperforming the index by 0.09 percentage points [22] 2.2. Individual Stock Performance - Among 113 companies in the A-share retail sector, 29 stocks rose, while 84 fell, with the top gainers including Coolte Intelligent and ST Bosen [28] 3. Industry Tracking 3.1. Industry Data Tracking - The textile and apparel export in October was 25.48 billion USD, with textile exports at 12.39 billion USD, up 16.1% year-on-year [46] 3.2. Industry News - La Chapelle was delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange due to financial difficulties [53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [8]. Core Insights - The retail sector showed improvement in October, driven by holiday effects and consumption policies [4]. - E-commerce penetration remains high, with online retail sales growing significantly [5]. - There is a divergence in growth between essential and discretionary consumption categories [7]. - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from consumption policies and e-commerce strategies [10]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Data - In October, total retail sales reached 4.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [4]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales were 4.09 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year [4]. - From January to October, total retail sales amounted to 39.90 trillion yuan, growing 3.5% year-on-year [4]. E-commerce Performance - Online retail sales for the first ten months were 12.36 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [5]. - The penetration rate of e-commerce reached 25.9%, indicating a slight increase [5]. - In October, online retail sales of physical goods grew by 0.27% year-on-year [5]. Consumption Trends - In October, commodity retail sales grew by 5.0%, while catering revenue increased by only 3.2% [6]. - Essential consumption categories like grain, oil, and food saw rapid growth, while discretionary items showed mixed results [7]. - The report highlights the impact of consumption policies on sales in sectors like home appliances and electronics [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng in the jewelry sector, which are expected to benefit from long-term growth despite short-term price fluctuations [10]. - It also recommends attention to companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Miniso, which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in offline sales [10]. - In the e-commerce space, companies such as Pinduoduo and Alibaba are highlighted for their strategic positioning [10].