Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [5][8]. Core Insights - The foldable screen market is expected to benefit from the exposure of Transsion's new foldable smartphones, Tecno Phantom V Fold2 and Phantom V Flip2, which feature significant design improvements and advanced specifications [5][6]. - Apple's upcoming product launch on September 10 is anticipated to drive the replacement cycle for users, benefiting the related supply chain [6][15]. - The passive components sector, including major manufacturers like Murata and TDK, is expected to see price increases of approximately 10% to 20% due to rising demand from smartphone and PC markets [6][14]. - Advanced packaging equipment sales are projected to grow by over 10% in 2024, driven by increasing demand for AI servers and advancements in packaging technologies [6][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The foldable screen industry is poised for growth with the launch of new models, suggesting a focus on companies like Dongmu Co., Jingyan Technology, and others [8]. - The Apple supply chain is expected to benefit from the new iPhone launch, with recommended companies including Luxshare Precision and others [8]. - The passive components sector is likely to grow due to rising prices and demand, with specific companies highlighted for investment [8]. - The advanced packaging segment is also expected to see accelerated growth, with recommended companies such as Yongxi Electronics and others [8]. 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 3.43% during the week of August 26 to August 30, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.6 percentage points [9][10]. - Among the secondary sectors, "Other Electronics II" saw the highest increase at 5.99%, while "Optical and Optoelectronics" had the lowest at 2.67% [9][10]. 3. Industry News - Major passive component manufacturers are expected to raise prices by 10% to 20% due to market conditions [14]. - Apple has officially announced a product launch event for September 10, expected to unveil new iPhone models [15]. - TrendForce forecasts a growth of over 10% in advanced packaging equipment sales in 2024, driven by AI server demand [16]. - Transsion's new foldable smartphones have been revealed, indicating potential growth in the foldable screen market [17]. 4. Company Dynamics - Unigroup Guowei focuses on special integrated circuits and smart security chips, achieving high-level international certifications [18]. - Silan Microelectronics' subsidiary is expected to release new circuit capacity in Q1 2025, indicating growth in production capabilities [19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" for the electronics sector [1]. Core Insights - The NAND Flash market is experiencing slight price fluctuations, with a significant year-on-year decrease of 40% in retail channel shipments for consumer NAND Flash in Q2 2024, indicating severe challenges in the global consumer storage market [1][13]. - NAND Flash wafer prices continue to rise, increasing operational costs for module manufacturers, while DRAM prices show minor fluctuations with SK Hynix successfully developing the sixth-generation 10nm (1c) DDR5 DRAM, expected to supply next year [1][14]. - The market for embedded products is seeing price reductions, particularly in low-capacity eMMC products due to weak demand, while high-capacity products are slightly adjusted to capture market share [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Price Tracking of Storage Chips - NAND Flash prices fluctuated between -1.22% to 4.64% with an average change of 0.51% during the week of August 26 to August 30, 2024 [1]. - DRAM prices showed a range of -4.73% to 0.07%, with an average decline of 1.10% during the same period [1]. 2. Industry News - The supply side of the storage market is showing signs of loosening, with a narrowing of price declines in the channel market after three rounds of price drops [12]. - The consumer storage market is facing significant challenges, with a notable drop in shipments and rising wafer prices impacting operational costs [13]. 3. Company Dynamics - Jiangbolong is adjusting its external and internal production capacities based on business development and customer demand, following acquisitions in Brazil and Suzhou [17]. - Jiangbolong clarified that reports of a "cooperation breakdown" with Kingston are inaccurate, and discussions regarding collaboration are ongoing [18]. 4. Company Announcements - Jiangbolong reported a revenue of approximately 9.039 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 143.82%, with a net profit of about 594 million yuan, up 199.64% [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry [1]. Core Insights - Nvidia's Q2 performance shows sustained high growth, with revenue of $30.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 122% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%. Net profit reached $16.599 billion, up 168% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong demand in AI and related sectors [5][6]. - China has established a nationwide satellite navigation positioning benchmark network, consisting of over 3,300 stations, enhancing high-precision navigation services and promoting the development of the BeiDou system [5]. - The three major telecom operators in China reported steady growth in H1 2024, with revenues of CNY 546.7 billion, CNY 266 billion, and CNY 197.3 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 3.0%, 2.8%, and 2.9% respectively. Net profits also increased, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom reporting profits of CNY 80.2 billion, CNY 21.8 billion, and CNY 13.8 billion, growing by 5.3%, 8.2%, and 11.3% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - Nvidia's strong Q2 results highlight significant growth in AI demand, benefiting related computing and optical communication sectors [5]. - The establishment of a unified satellite navigation benchmark network in China is expected to benefit related industry chain companies [5]. - The three major telecom operators have shown resilience and growth despite macroeconomic challenges, indicating potential benefits for related listed companies and upstream communication equipment manufacturers [5][6]. 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Communication Index fell by 0.5% from August 26 to August 30, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.33 percentage points [7][10]. - Within the Shenwan secondary industry, the communication services sector decreased by 0.15%, while the communication equipment sector fell by 0.68% [10][13]. 3. Industry News - China Mobile's research institute awarded a contract to ZTE for domestic intelligent computing servers, with an average bid price of CNY 875,000 per unit [20]. - GSA's survey indicates that 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) has become mainstream, with expected growth in shipments [21]. - China Unicom announced the results of its general server procurement, with a total bid amount of approximately CNY 328.9 million [22]. 4. Company Dynamics - Lihua Microelectronics reported progress on its convertible bond project related to smart photovoltaic and communication chips [23]. - Yutai Microelectronics anticipates a surge in demand for in-vehicle communication due to increasing automotive intelligence [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][12]. Core Views - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 6.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 193 million yuan, up 105.26% year-on-year [2]. - The company's revenue from the "smart manufacturing + integrated services" business reached 3.674 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.37%, with a net profit of 213 million yuan, up 44.64% year-on-year [2]. - The electric vehicle charging network business generated revenue of 2.658 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.32%, while reducing losses compared to the previous year [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 18.473 billion yuan, 22.713 billion yuan, and 28.004 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.5%, 23.0%, and 23.3% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 712 million yuan, 893 million yuan, and 1.389 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.9%, 25.5%, and 55.5% [3][4]. Market Position - As of June 2024, the company operated 595,000 public charging terminals, maintaining the industry’s leading position, with a market share of 18.95% as of July 2024 [2][5]. - The company has successfully delivered products to over 50 countries globally, indicating strong international market penetration [2]. Financial Metrics - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.67 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 1.32 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 25, 20, and 13 for the same years [3][4]. Business Segments Performance - The revenue from the new energy generation sector was 1.293 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 18.91%, while the grid sector revenue was 1.007 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.92% [2]. - The strategic emerging industries generated revenue of 1.373 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 21.06% [2]. Cash Flow and Assets - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 830 million yuan, with a net profit of 789 million yuan [8]. - The total assets are expected to grow from 23.877 billion yuan in 2023 to 36.017 billion yuan by 2026 [8]. Summary of Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 7.3% in 2023 to 14.3% in 2026 [4][9]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is expected to remain stable around 67.8% to 69.3% over the forecast period [9].

Group 1: Long-term Investment Opportunities in Hard Technology - The long-term investment opportunities in A-shares are centered around hard technology growth under the new quality productivity framework, particularly in areas such as chips, AI, intelligent driving, and humanoid robots [2][12][21] - The overall profit forecast for A-shares has been marginally revised upward, especially for large-cap blue-chip sectors like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300, indicating a stable improvement in fundamentals [2][21] - The government’s recent policies, including the "New National Nine Articles," are expected to stabilize market expectations and alleviate uncertainties, promoting a new phase of quality improvement in the capital market [2][12] Group 2: Real Estate Market Recovery - The real estate market is expected to take time to stabilize, with current challenges likely to gradually ease, particularly as government interventions aim to adjust supply-demand imbalances [2][12] - Recent policies in major cities, such as Beijing, are anticipated to have a demonstration effect on surrounding regions and the national market, potentially improving market conditions over time [2][12] - The rental yield in third-tier cities continues to rise, surpassing that of first-tier cities, indicating a shift in investment dynamics within the real estate sector [2][12] Group 3: Currency Stability and Macro Environment - The short-term fluctuations in the RMB against the USD are contributing to market pressures, but the macroeconomic fundamentals remain robust, providing a solid foundation for long-term currency stability [3][12] - The Chinese economy is currently undergoing a critical phase of industrial upgrading, and a stable exchange rate is essential for fostering a conducive environment for foreign direct investment [3][12] - The anticipated decline in US inflation may support expectations for interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares for investment [3][12] Group 4: Focus on Sustainable Energy and AI - The expansion of AI data centers is expected to significantly increase energy storage demand, highlighting the importance of sustainable energy solutions in the context of rapid technological advancement [2][12][16] - The cumulative installed capacity of energy storage in China has seen substantial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 109% as of May 2024, indicating a strong market trend [2][12][18] - Tesla's rapid development in the energy storage sector is setting new benchmarks for the industry, promoting technological advancements and enhancing local employment and supply chain development [2][12][19]

Economic Outlook - The probability of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy remains uncertain, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in July, triggering the "Sam Rule," indicating potential recession signals[4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed confidence in achieving a 2% inflation rate while maintaining a strong labor market, but emphasized that the timing and pace of interest rate cuts will depend on future data and evolving risks[10][11] Market Indicators - From July 29 to August 30, the U.S. 1-year Treasury yield decreased from 4.79% to 4.38%, and the 10-year yield fell from 4.17% to 3.91%, reflecting rising expectations for interest rate cuts[4][13] - The U.S. dollar index declined from 104.57 to 101.73 during the same period, while gold prices increased from $2,391 to $2,513 per ounce[4][13] Employment Trends - The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in July, continuing an upward trend since March 2024, with average hourly wage growth declining to 3.82%[16] - Powell noted that the rise in unemployment is not due to large-scale layoffs typical of recessions but rather an increase in labor supply and a slowdown in hiring[16] Economic Growth - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 2024 was 3.15% year-on-year, up from 2.92%, with personal consumption contributing 1.95 percentage points to growth[18] - The inventory cycle in the U.S. is entering an initial phase of inventory accumulation, as manufacturers, retailers, and wholesalers have shown increasing inventory growth from April to June[18][22] Inflation Dynamics - The U.S. CPI fell below 3.0% in July, with the PPI also showing a decline, indicating easing inflationary pressures[25] - International oil prices showed a slight decrease in August compared to July, which may help stabilize global inflation expectations[25] Investment Recommendations - Continuous monitoring of economic, employment, and inflation indicators is essential to validate the "soft landing" scenario, as the current situation does not confirm its likelihood[6][28] - The potential for geopolitical shocks to elevate energy prices and the impact of interest rate cut expectations on U.S. housing prices pose significant risks[7][29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for precious metals [2][11]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the timing for adjusting monetary policy has arrived, with market expectations for a rate cut in September. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts further drive market hedging activities, leading to a positive outlook for gold prices in the medium to long term [2][11]. - The Politburo meeting emphasized the commitment to achieving annual economic development goals, with policies like "equipment updates + trade-in" expected to boost demand, supporting a favorable outlook for industrial metal prices [2][11]. - For small metals and new materials, the report highlights investment opportunities driven by price increases that improve industry and company profitability. The rare earth market shows stable supply and increased transactions, with expectations for price stability and improvement [2][11][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Investment Recommendations - Powell's remarks suggest a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with geopolitical tensions remaining unresolved, which is expected to keep gold prices high [2][11]. - The industrial metals sector is expected to benefit from domestic demand driven by government policies aimed at economic stabilization [2][11]. 2. Weekly Sector Performance Review - The non-ferrous metals index saw a slight decline of -0.39% for the week ending August 23, 2024, ranking third among 31 sectors [14]. - The performance of sub-sectors included gold (+4.13%), copper (+0.32%), and aluminum (-0.75%) [16]. 3. Price and Inventory Performance 3.1 Precious Metals - As of August 23, 2024, COMEX gold closed at $2508.4 per ounce, up 0.39% from the previous week, while silver rose 3.5% to $29.786 per ounce [21][23]. 3.2 Industrial Metals - LME copper and aluminum prices increased by 1.5% and 8.96%, respectively, while SHFE copper prices slightly decreased by 0.04% [25][26]. 3.3 Energy Metals - Lithium and cobalt prices continued to decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down 1.2% to 74,300 yuan per ton [30]. 3.4 Small Metals and New Materials - Rare earth prices showed a positive trend, with neodymium oxide prices increasing by 1.55% [36]. 4. Important News of the Week - Powell's statements regarding the readiness to adjust monetary policy highlight the potential for future rate cuts, which could impact the overall economic landscape and financial markets [43].

中小市值 行业研究/行业点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 点 评 英伟达发布 FY25Q2 财报，业绩持续高增 ——AI 行业点评报告 核心观点 近日，英伟达发布了 FY25Q2 财报，业绩持续高增。 FY25Q2 GAAP 营业收入为 300.40 亿美元，YoY+122%，QoQ+15%， 超出此前指引的 280 亿美元（±2%）；GAAP 净利润约为 165.99 亿美 元，YoY+168%，QoQ+12%；GAAP / Non-GAAP 毛利率分别为 75.1% （YoY+5.0pct，QoQ-3.3pct）、75.7%（YoY+4.5pct，QoQ-3.2pct），符合 此前指引的 74.8%（±50bp）、75.5%（±50bp）。 数据中心驱动业绩增长，其他业务齐头并进。 数据中心：FY25Q2 营业收入为 263 亿美元，YoY+154%，QoQ+16%； 游戏、AIPC：FY25Q2 营业收入为 29 亿美元，YOY+16%，QoQ+9%； 专业可视化:FY25Q2 营业收入为 4.54 亿美元，YOY+20%，QoQ+6%； 汽车、机器人:FY25Q2 营业收入为 3. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% [19]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue in Q2 2024, with significant contributions from magnesium alloy products [6]. - The company is benefiting from the automotive lightweighting trend, which is expected to lead to simultaneous volume and price increases [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of approximately 183 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 7.11%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was approximately 37 million yuan, a decrease of about 5.00% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue reached approximately 101 million yuan, up about 11.28% year-on-year and 22.73% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q2 was approximately 19 million yuan, down about 12.14% year-on-year but up 9.28% quarter-on-quarter [5]. Customer and Product Insights - The company saw accelerated production from its client, SAIC Zhiji, with a total production of 17,581 vehicles in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 220.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 92.18% [6]. - Revenue from magnesium alloy die-casting parts reached approximately 118 million yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 25.87%, while revenue from aluminum alloy die-casting parts was approximately 56 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 2.48% [6]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was approximately 32.34%, a decrease of 5.91 percentage points year-on-year and 3.55 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was approximately 19.1%, down 5.09 percentage points year-on-year and 2.35 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The company is actively expanding its customer base and has secured multiple new projects, which include components for automotive display systems, central control panels, and tire support brackets [7]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 500 million, 699 million, and 962 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of approximately 42.1%, 39.6%, and 37.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be approximately 113 million, 161 million, and 227 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of approximately 41.6%, 42.1%, and 41.0% [8][10].

策略研究/策略周报 | --- | |-------| | | | | | --- | --- | |-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | --- | |-------| | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------| | 美债利率持续下行， | 融资大幅流出电子、 ...