电力及公用事业 电力月报 同步大市-A(维持) 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguijun@sxzq.com 11 月用电量增速回落，看好后续需求修复 2025 年 1 月 3 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 电力及公用事业板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 相关报告： 【山证电力及公用事业】10 月用电量增 速回落，看好后续需求修复-【山证煤炭 公用】电力月报 2024.12.18 【山证电力及公用事业】供需两旺，火 电改善超预期-【山证煤炭公用】电力行 业 2024 年三季报综述 2024.11.27 分析师： 投资要点： 电力月度数据： 11 月行情回顾：11 月 CS 电力及公用事业板块下跌 1.77%，沪深 300 指 数上涨 0.66%，电力及公用事业跑输大盘 2.42 个百分点，涨幅位列 24/29。 中信三级行业分类板块中，火电下跌 4.69%，水电下跌 1.26%，燃气上涨 2.82%。 用电端： 1-11 月全社会用电量实现高速增长，11 月增速环比回落。1- ...

基础化工行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 周观点：化工进口关税调整，降低乙烷等税率。国务院关税税则委员会 发布《2025 年关税调整方案》，对 935 项商品实施低于最惠国税率的进口暂 定税率，其中与化工相关的产品涉及 10 种，新增乙烷、环硅酸锆钠、乙烯- 乙烯醇共聚物、环烯烃聚合物，分别降低税率为 1%/2.5%/3.5%/1.5%；删除 煤焦油及其他矿物焦油、车用汽油及航空汽油、柴油、氯乙烯、乙二醛，分 别增加税率为 5%/4%/5%/4.5%/2.5%，5-7 号燃料油改为燃料油，税率增加 2%。 以上涉及调整的化工产品 24 年 1-11 月进口量排序前五分别为 5-7 号燃料油、 乙烷、氯乙烯、煤焦油及其他矿物焦油、环烯烃聚合物，进口量对应为 2180/505/67/21/12 万吨，进口均价分别为 3620/3405/4144/3557/36351 元/吨。 进口关税的调整，利好国内炼油和乙烷行业。提升燃料油、煤焦油、氯乙烯 的进口关税，有利于提升国内炼油和氯碱生产企业的竞争力，减少进口的供 应压力；降低乙烷的进口关税，有利于降低乙烷裂解及加工等行业的进口成 本，提升该领域的竞争力。 石化：欧洲供应 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the electronic industry, indicating an expected price increase exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [2][82]. Core Insights - The electronic industry has shown mixed performance in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.95% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.13%, while the Semiconductor Index declined by 0.60% [20][21]. - Key developments include Hon Hai (Foxconn) entering the R&D phase for NVIDIA's GB300 AI server, and Xiaomi building its own GPU cluster to support AI model development [75][76]. - The U.S. government has initiated a trade investigation into traditional Chinese semiconductors, which may lead to increased tariffs on chips used in everyday products [75][76]. Market Overview - The overall market performance for the week of December 23-27, 2024, showed varied results, with the semiconductor sector underperforming compared to other segments [20][21]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 3.18%, and the Taiwan Semiconductor Index increased by 4.90%, indicating stronger performance in these regions compared to the domestic market [20][21]. Sector Performance - Among sub-sectors, components (+1.32%), other electronics (+0.88%), and digital chip design (+0.63%) were the top performers for the week [20][21]. - Notable individual stock performances included DingTong Technology (+34.19%), ZhaoLong Interconnect (+32.73%), and ShiYiDa (+31.83%) [32][34]. Industry News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of foundational research and the development of key technologies during a recent visit to Zhejiang, highlighting the need for innovation to drive development [75]. - Xiaomi's initiative to establish a GPU cluster is part of its broader strategy to invest heavily in AI technologies, with a focus on enhancing its capabilities in AI model training [75][76].

Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,407.33 with a gain of 0.21% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,671.16 with a gain of 0.10% [3] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3,999.05 with a gain of 0.45% [3] - The Small and Medium Enterprise Board Index closed at 6,527.71 with a gain of 0.15% [3] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2,206.29 with a gain of 0.06% [3] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1,020.63 with a gain of 0.20% [3] Coal Industry Insights - The coal market is experiencing a reduction in port inventories, leading to a rebound in downstream coal prices [25][26] - As of December 27, the reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 766 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -1.42% [26] - The inventory at northern ports decreased by 3.07% to 24.61 million tons [26] - The average price for metallurgical coal at Tianjin Port was 1,780 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -2.73% [30] - The coal transportation index decreased by 3.21% to 661.29 points [30] Company-Specific Analysis: China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - China Coal Energy is a leading state-owned enterprise in the coal sector, with a focus on the entire coal industry chain [34] - The company has seen an increase in shareholding by its parent company, China Coal Group, which now holds 57.41% of shares [36] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, projected at 37.7% for 2023 [36] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are 1.30, 1.47, and 1.65 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.1, 8.0, and 7.2 [38] - The investment rating for China Coal Energy has been upgraded to "Buy-A" based on growth prospects and valuation recovery expectations [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the new materials sector [5]. Core Insights - The Guangdong Provincial Government has introduced an energy-saving and carbon reduction action plan, which is expected to drive rapid development in the wind power industry chain, benefiting companies like "Times New Materials" and "Meijia Xincai" [2]. - The new materials sector has experienced a decline, with the new materials index falling by 0.97%, underperforming the ChiNext index by 0.75% [2]. - The report highlights the significant potential for growth in the solid-phase synthesis carrier market due to the launch of Eli Lilly's weight loss drug, Tirzepatide, in China, with an expected global market demand reaching 3.53 billion by 2030 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.9% from 2024 to 2030 [6]. Market Performance - The new materials sector has seen a decline in the past week, with the synthetic biology index down 3.29%, semiconductor materials down 1.23%, electronic chemicals down 1.66%, and biodegradable plastics down 2.26%, while industrial gases increased by 0.13% [40]. - The overall market performance for the week (December 23-27, 2024) shows the CSI 300 index increased by 1.36%, and the Shanghai Composite index increased by 0.95% [27]. Price Tracking - The report provides a detailed price tracking of various chemical raw materials, including: - Biodegradable materials: PLA (Injection Grade) at 18,000 CNY/ton, PLA (Blown Film Grade) at 17,000 CNY/ton, PBS at 19,000 CNY/ton, and PBAT at 9,800 CNY/ton [1]. - Vitamins: Vitamin A at 137,500 CNY/ton (-14.60%), Vitamin E at 142,500 CNY/ton (-3.39%), Vitamin D3 at 265,000 CNY/ton (+0.95%) [1]. - Industrial gases: UPSSS grade hydrofluoric acid at 11,000 CNY/ton and EL grade hydrofluoric acid at 5,700 CNY/ton [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the energy-saving and carbon reduction policies, particularly in the wind power sector [2]. - It also recommends monitoring companies involved in the solid-phase synthesis carrier market due to the anticipated growth driven by the new weight loss drug [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the companies discussed [2][18]. Core Insights - The new stock market activity has increased, with December seeing a decline in the first-day gains and opening valuations of new stocks across major boards [5][32]. - The report highlights key new stocks that have been listed recently, including 佳驰科技 (Jiachi Technology) and 先锋精科 (Pioneer Precision) [5][59]. - The report indicates that the first-day opening valuations for new stocks have generally decreased, with the overall market showing signs of volatility [5][61]. Summary by Sections Section 1: New Stock Market Activity - In December, the first-day gains and opening valuations of new stocks on the main board decreased, with 17 stocks recording positive gains, accounting for 39.53% of the total [5][15]. - The report notes that the first-day opening valuation for the main board was 33.72 times earnings, a decrease from previous months [5][68]. Section 2: Key New Stocks - The report lists several key new stocks that have been recently issued, including 钧崴电子 (Junwei Electronics) and 思看科技 (Sikan Technology), which are expected to perform well in their respective markets [47][71]. - 钧崴电子 focuses on precision resistors and fuses, with a projected fundraising of 6.44 billion yuan [54][71]. - 思看科技 is a leading player in the industrial-grade 3D visual digitization market, serving numerous high-profile clients [75][78]. Section 3: Market Trends and Valuations - The report indicates that the TTM-PE (trailing twelve months price-to-earnings ratio) for new stocks on the 科创板 (Star Market) increased to 39.09 times in December, while the first-day gains decreased to 433.38% [61][68]. - The report also highlights that the market for 3D visual digitization products is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 26.6% from 2022 to 2027 [56][78].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform - A" rating for the solar energy industry, indicating expected performance in line with the benchmark index [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average price of polysilicon remains stable at 39.0 CNY/kg for dense material and 36.0 CNY/kg for granular silicon, with a slight increase in transaction prices due to reduced production from major companies [3]. - The average price for 182mm bifacial PERC modules is 0.68 CNY/W, and for 182mm TOPCon double-glass modules, it is 0.71 CNY/W, both remaining unchanged from the previous week, indicating a stable pricing environment amid weak demand [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new technology directions in the industry, recommending companies such as Aiko Solar and Longi Green Energy, and highlights the ongoing production cuts in the photovoltaic glass sector [5]. Summary by Sections Polysilicon Prices - The average price for dense polysilicon is 39.0 CNY/kg, and for granular polysilicon, it is 36.0 CNY/kg, both stable compared to the previous week. The reduction in production by leading companies is expected to alleviate supply-demand pressure [3]. Module Prices - The average price for 182mm bifacial PERC modules is 0.68 CNY/W, and for 182mm TOPCon double-glass modules, it is 0.71 CNY/W, with no changes from the previous week. The market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term due to weak overall demand [5]. Battery Prices - The average price for M10 battery cells is 0.275 CNY/W, and for 210mm battery cells, it is 0.280 CNY/W, both remaining stable. The report anticipates that upstream N-type silicon prices may increase, while battery manufacturers are also considering raising prices in January [12]. Export Data - In November, module exports decreased by 16.5% month-on-month, totaling 12.8 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 30.1%. Cumulative exports from January to November reached 203.66 billion CNY, down 29.5% year-on-year [19].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the company, New Hope Liuhe, is positioned as a leader in the fine chemical industry, leveraging its technological capabilities to achieve high profitability through the production of high-value, high-barrier products [10][21]. - The vitamin market is experiencing a supply tightness, which is driving up industry profitability. The company benefits from this trend due to its strong technical capabilities and cost advantages, maintaining a net profit margin of 28% for vitamin E despite price pressures in 2023 [21][11]. - The global flavor and fragrance market is recovering, with a market size exceeding $30 billion. The company's scale and product diversity allow it to achieve significantly higher gross margins compared to competitors [12][21]. Group 2 - The amino acid market, particularly methionine, is projected to exceed $30 billion. The company is expanding its capacity with an 18,000-ton liquid methionine facility, expected to contribute approximately $1.4 billion in revenue and $500 million in net profit [22][21]. - The new materials segment, particularly PPS and high-temperature nylon, is seeing increased demand driven by the automotive and consumer electronics sectors. The company is a leader in PPS production technology and is expanding its production capacity for PA66 [23][21]. - The financial projections for the company indicate significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of $21.23 billion, $24.43 billion, and $27.70 billion for 2024 to 2026, respectively, alongside net profits of $5.38 billion, $6.09 billion, and $6.86 billion during the same period [25][21].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Newand (002001 SZ) with a Buy-B rating [1] Core Views - Newand is a leader in China's fine chemical industry, leveraging its strong technical capabilities to break through high-value-added, high-barrier, and large-capacity products [1] - The company has established leading technical strengths in vitamins, methionine, flavors and fragrances, and PPS, with significant cost advantages and a rich product portfolio [1] - Newand's profitability has consistently ranked at the top of the A-share chemical sector [1] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 21 226 billion yuan in 2024 to 27 698 billion yuan in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 40 4%, 15 1%, and 13 4% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 5 376 billion yuan in 2024 to 6 861 billion yuan in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 98 8%, 13 3%, and 12 6% respectively [4] - EPS is forecasted to be 1 75 yuan, 1 98 yuan, and 2 23 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12 6x, 11 1x, and 9 9x [4] Business Segments Vitamins - Newand is a leader in the vitamin industry, with vitamin A and E capacities of 8,000 tons and 60,000 tons, accounting for 14 8% and 21 43% of global capacity, respectively [34] - The company benefits from tight supply and rising prices in the vitamin market, driven by factors such as DSM's exit from the animal nutrition business and BASF's production disruptions [18][152] - Newand's vitamin E net profit margin remained high at 28% in 2023, despite price pressures, due to cost reductions in key intermediates like citral and linalool [18] Methionine - Newand has become a global leader in methionine, with a solid methionine capacity of 300,000 tons and plans to build an 180,000-ton liquid methionine project [15][190] - The company's methionine business achieved a net profit margin of 37% in the first half of 2024, contributing 33% of revenue and 53% of net profit [190] - The liquid methionine project, expected to be completed by the end of 2024, is projected to generate 1 382 billion yuan in revenue and 511 million yuan in net profit at full capacity [190] Flavors and Fragrances - Newand is the largest domestic flavors and fragrances company, with a diverse product portfolio and a strong market position [15] - The global flavors and fragrances market is recovering, with domestic exports growing by over 20% in 2024, benefiting Newand's business [15][193] - The company's flavors and fragrances segment has shown an upward trend in gross margin, driven by economies of scale [15] New Materials - Newand is a pioneer in the domestic PPS market and is expanding into the PA66 industry, with significant growth potential [2][20] - The company's PPS capacity is 22,000 tons, and it is investing in a 480,000-ton PA66 project in Zhejiang, which is expected to generate 14 5 billion yuan in revenue and 2 1 billion yuan in net profit at full capacity [20][53] Industry Insights Vitamins - The vitamin industry is highly concentrated, with high technical barriers and stable competition [18] - Supply-side disruptions, such as BASF's production issues and DSM's exit, have driven up vitamin prices, benefiting domestic leaders like Newand [18][152] - The vitamin E market is expected to remain strong, even if BASF resumes production, due to aging facilities and reliance on imports [155] Methionine - Methionine is a key feed additive with a global market size of over 32 5 billion yuan, and domestic companies are increasing their market share through technological breakthroughs [172][174] - Newand's integration with Sinopec's Zhenhai refinery provides cost advantages for its liquid methionine project, enhancing its competitiveness [190] Flavors and Fragrances - The global flavors and fragrances market is highly concentrated, with the top four companies accounting for over 50% of the market [193] - Domestic companies like Newand are benefiting from the shift of global production and R&D to emerging markets, as well as the recovery in global demand [193] New Materials - The PPS and PA66 markets are growing, driven by demand from industries such as new energy vehicles and consumer electronics [2][20] - Newand's investments in PPS and PA66 are expected to strengthen its position in the high-performance materials market [20][53]

Industry Overview - The coal import volume continued to grow in November 2024, with various coal types showing month-on-month increases [5][28] - The overall coal import price remained relatively high, with a month-on-month increase of 1.48% in November [28] Coal Import Data - From January to November 2024, the cumulative coal and lignite import volume reached 490 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15% [7] - In November alone, the import volume was 54.98 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.36% and a month-on-month increase of 18.88% [7] - The average import price for coal during January to November 2024 was recorded at $97 per ton, a decrease of 13.04% compared to the same period last year [7] Coal Types Analysis - The import volume for thermal coal, coking coal, and lignite all showed year-on-year growth in November, while anthracite coal saw a decline [20][28] - The demand for thermal coal increased due to lower temperatures, contributing to the month-on-month rise in import volume [28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks and stable high-dividend varieties in a low-interest-rate environment, with specific recommendations for companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Zhongmei Energy [21] - Companies such as Pingmei Shenma Group, Huabei Mining, and Yanzhou Coal Mining are highlighted as having high dividend elasticity [21] Solar Energy Sector - In November 2024, the domestic photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity increased by 25.0 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.3% and a month-on-month growth of 22.4% [3][17] - The cumulative installed capacity for PV from January to November 2024 reached 206.3 GW, with a year-on-year increase of 25.9% [3] Inverter Export Data - The inverter export value in November was 4.33 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [3] - Cumulative inverter exports from January to November totaled 54.04 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% [3]