证券研究报告 纺织服装 行业周报（20241006-20241012） 同步大市-A(维持) 迅销公布 FY2024 业绩，预计 FY2025 收入同比增长 9.5% 2024 年 10 月 14 日 行业研究/行业周报 纺织服装行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 - 纺织服装 - -- 沪深300 分析师： 王冯 执业登记编码：S0760522030003 邮箱：wangfeng@sxzq.com 孙萌 执业登记编码：S0760523050001 邮箱：sunmeng@sxzq.com 海外 UNIQLO，FY2024，实现营收 1.71 万亿日元，同比增长 19.1%，经营利润 2834 亿 日元，同比增长 24.9%。截至 FY2024 末，门店数量 1698 家，较年初净增加 64 家。分 区域看，（1）大中华区实现营收 6770 亿日元，同比增长 9.2%，经营利润 1048 亿日元， 同比增长 0.5%。（2）南韩与东南亚、印度及澳洲地区实现营收 5405 亿日元，同比增长 20.2%，经营利润 976 亿日元，同比增长 24.8%。（3）北美地区实现营收 2177 亿日元， 同比增长 32.8%，经营 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the solar energy industry, indicating expected performance in line with the market [2][5]. Core Insights - The National Energy Administration has released a draft for the management of distributed photovoltaic power generation, aiming to promote high-quality development and establish a new power system [1]. - In August, the solar power sector saw a 2.9% year-on-year increase in newly installed capacity, although downstream prices are under pressure [2]. - The report highlights the stability of polysilicon prices, with dense material averaging 40.0 CNY/kg and granular silicon at 36.5 CNY/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous week [4]. - The average price of 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafers is stable at 1.25 CNY/piece, while the 182mm N-type wafers are at 1.08 CNY/piece, reflecting a stagnant market [4]. - The report notes a decline in module prices, with 182mm bifacial PERC modules averaging 0.70 CNY/W, down 4.1% from the previous week [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The solar energy industry has shown a 2.9% increase in new installations in August, with a total of 5,742 new photovoltaic projects registered [2]. - The National Energy Administration is pushing for enhanced development of large-scale wind and solar projects, addressing infrastructure gaps [2]. Price Tracking - Polysilicon prices remain stable, with no significant changes observed in the market due to low demand and high inventory levels [4]. - The average prices for battery cells and modules have remained steady, but there is an expectation of further price declines due to ongoing market pressures [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading integrated solar storage companies such as Canadian Solar, and highlights companies like Sungrow and Deye for their potential in the African and Latin American markets [5]. - It also suggests monitoring companies involved in new solar technologies and those in the stable photovoltaic glass segment, such as Flat Glass Group [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a significant decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,217.74, down 2.55% [1] - The overall market sentiment appears negative, with declines across various indices including the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index [1][2] Group 2: Power Industry Analysis - The power industry showed a stable supply-demand balance in the first half of 2024, with electricity consumption reaching 46,575 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [3][4] - Hydropower revenue grew significantly, with a 15.8% increase in the second quarter, while thermal power revenue declined by 9.5% [3][4] - The overall profit margin for the power sector improved, with a gross margin of 23.4% in the first half of 2024, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Group 3: Thermal Power Sector - The thermal power sector faced revenue challenges, with a 3.0% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2024, and a more pronounced 9.5% drop in the second quarter [4] - Despite revenue pressures, the gross margin for thermal power improved to 15.0%, reflecting a 3.2 percentage point increase year-on-year [4] - The net profit for the thermal power sector surged by 48.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, driven by cost improvements [4] Group 4: Hydropower Sector - The hydropower sector experienced a robust recovery, with revenue growth of 10.9% in the first half and 15.8% in the second quarter of 2024 [5] - The gross margin for hydropower reached 47.9%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit rising by 26.3% [5] - The sector's debt repayment capacity showed improvement, with several companies reporting positive revenue growth [5] Group 5: Green Power Sector - The green power sector's revenue remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% in the first half of 2024, but a decline of 2.3% in the second quarter [5] - The gross margin for green power decreased to 43.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit declining by 6.2% [5] - Despite challenges, some companies within the green power sector reported improved performance [5] Group 6: Investment Strategy - The report suggests that electricity demand growth is expected to outpace GDP growth, driven by new energy industries and high energy consumption sectors [5] - The thermal power sector may see a recovery as fuel prices stabilize, while hydropower is expected to benefit from improved water conditions [5] - Long-term prospects for hydropower remain positive, with potential for increased market prices and improved dividend ratios [5] Group 7: Longi Technology Overview - Longi Technology is positioned as a leading player in the semiconductor packaging industry, focusing on high-value applications [10][11] - The company has a strong patent portfolio and positive cash flow, indicating robust self-sustaining capabilities [10][11] - The acquisition of Shendi Semiconductor enhances Longi's storage packaging capabilities and market share in the NAND sector [12] Group 8: Auto Electronics and Future Growth - Longi Technology is expanding its automotive electronics segment, which is a strategic move to tap into high-value applications [11][12] - The company is also investing in advanced packaging technologies to meet the growing demand for high-performance chips [11][12] - The partnership with Western Digital through the acquisition is expected to strengthen Longi's market position in the storage sector [12] Group 9: Autoimmune Drug Market - The global autoimmune drug market is rapidly growing, with a market size of $132.3 billion in 2022 projected to reach $176.7 billion by 2030 [13][14] - The report notes a significant increase in the commercialization of domestic IL-17 and IL-4R monoclonal antibodies [13][14] - The penetration of biological agents in autoimmune diseases is expected to increase, with new drug breakthroughs anticipated [13][14] Group 10: Key Companies in Autoimmune Drugs - Key players in the autoimmune drug market include Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and Changchun High-tech [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of drug efficacy and safety for long-term treatment in autoimmune diseases [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the electricity sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The electricity sector experienced robust growth in electricity consumption, with a total of 46,575 billion kWh in the first half of 2024, representing an 8.1% year-on-year increase. However, the growth rate slowed in the second quarter to 6.1% [10][11]. - The revenue for the electricity sector slightly decreased by 1.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, primarily due to pressure on the thermal power segment in the second quarter, which saw a revenue decline of 5.7% [14][18]. - Profitability improved overall, with a gross margin of 23.4% in the first half of 2024, up by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit growth of 22.2% [18][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Sector Overview - The electricity sector showed strong supply and demand dynamics, with high growth continuing into 2024. The total electricity consumption reached 46,575 billion kWh in the first half of 2024, marking an 8.1% increase year-on-year [10][11]. - The second quarter saw a total electricity consumption of 23,202 billion kWh, reflecting a 6.1% year-on-year growth, although this was a decrease of 3.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [10][11]. 2. Thermal Power Segment - The thermal power segment's revenue decreased by 3.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with a more significant decline of 9.5% in the second quarter due to improved water inflow affecting thermal power generation [22][24]. - Despite revenue pressures, the gross margin for the thermal power segment improved to 15.0%, up by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 48.3% [22][24]. 3. Hydropower Segment - The hydropower segment benefited from improved water inflow, with revenue growth of 10.9% in the first half of 2024 and 15.8% in the second quarter. The gross margin reached 47.9%, up by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [22][24]. - The net profit for the hydropower segment grew by 26.3% in the first half of 2024, with a notable increase of 31.1% in the second quarter [22][24]. 4. Green Power Segment - The green power segment's revenue remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% in the first half of 2024, but a decline of 2.3% in the second quarter. The gross margin decreased to 43.5%, down by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][22]. - Net profit for the green power segment fell by 6.2% in the first half of 2024, with a more significant decline of 13.9% in the second quarter [4][22]. 5. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that electricity demand growth will continue to outpace GDP growth, driven by new industrial developments and energy substitution trends. The thermal power segment is expected to recover gradually, while the hydropower segment is likely to maintain its positive momentum due to improved water conditions [4][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Anta Sports [2][5] Core Views - Anta's brand retail sales growth has slowed down in Q3 2024, with online performance outperforming offline channels. The overall retail discount has improved, and inventory levels are healthy [1][5] - The FILA brand experienced a decline in retail sales, primarily due to the trend towards cost-effective consumption and adjustments in FILA FUSION and FILA KIDS [5][4] - The report anticipates that Anta and FILA's Q3 sales performance fell short of internal expectations, but the Golden Week holiday is expected to boost sales due to increased foot traffic [5] Company Performance - In Q3 2024, Anta's brand retail sales are expected to grow in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with online sales projected to increase by over 20% [1] - FILA's retail sales saw a low single-digit decline year-on-year, with inventory turnover nearing 5 months, indicating a controllable level [4] - Other brands under Anta, such as Descente and KOLON, reported retail sales growth of 45%-50%, with KOLON expected to grow by 65%-70% [2][3] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for Anta are as follows: 2024E at 69,369 million, 2025E at 77,443 million, and 2026E at 86,527 million, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.2%, 11.6%, and 11.7% respectively [7][8] - Net profit estimates are 13,293 million for 2024E, 13,606 million for 2025E, and 15,522 million for 2026E, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.9%, 2.4%, and 14.1% respectively [7][8] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 4.69, 4.80, and 5.48 for 2024-2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.4, 19.0, and 16.6 [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Anta Sports [2][5] Core Views - Anta's brand retail sales growth has slowed down in Q3 2024, with online channels performing better than offline. The overall retail discount has improved, and inventory levels are healthy [1][5] - FILA brand retail sales have declined, primarily due to the trend towards cost-effective consumption and adjustments in FILA FUSION and FILA KIDS [5][4] - The company is expected to achieve high-quality and stable growth through continuous dynamic management and cost control [5] Company Performance - In Q3 2024, Anta's brand retail sales are expected to grow in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with online sales projected to increase by over 20% [1] - FILA brand retail sales have decreased in the low single digits year-on-year, with inventory turnover close to 5 months, indicating a controllable level [4][5] - Other brands under Anta, such as Descente and KOLON, have shown strong growth, with retail sales increasing by 45%-50% year-on-year [2][3] Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 69,369 million, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [7] - Net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 13,293 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.9% [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 4.69, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.4 for 2024 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company, Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology Co., Ltd. (长电科技) [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is accelerating its transition from consumer electronics to high-value-added fields, with a focus on enhancing its storage packaging capabilities through the acquisition of Shengdie Semiconductor [1][2]. - The global third-largest outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) company, Changjiang Electronics is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in NAND demand driven by the AI era [1][2]. - The company has a strong patent portfolio and leads the industry in advanced packaging technology, which is crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the semiconductor market [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology Co., Ltd. is the third-largest OSAT provider globally, offering a comprehensive range of services from system integration to product testing [11][12]. - The company has a significant international presence, with over 70% of its revenue coming from overseas markets [11][12]. Recent Performance - The company experienced a revenue decline of 12.1% in 2023 but is expected to recover with projected revenue growth of 21.9% in 2024 [3][17]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be 21.68 billion yuan, with a steady increase expected through 2026 [2][3]. Market Trends - The global semiconductor packaging market is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of approximately $82.2 billion in 2023, expected to reach $89.9 billion in 2024 [28][29]. - The demand for advanced packaging solutions is being driven by the recovery in consumer electronics and the growth of AI applications [25][28]. Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of Shengdie Semiconductor will enhance the company's capabilities in storage packaging and strengthen its market position [1][2]. - The company is focusing on high-end packaging technologies, particularly in the 5G and automotive sectors, to capture higher value in the semiconductor supply chain [2][3][43]. Financial Projections - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from 0.82 yuan in 2023 to 1.21 yuan in 2024, reflecting a recovery in profitability [3][17]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected at 32.1, decreasing to 16.0 by 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [2][3].

Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,301.93 with an increase of 1.32% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,471.08 with a decrease of 0.82% [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3,997.79 with an increase of 1.06% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2,212.91 with a decrease of 2.95% [1] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 954.17 with a decrease of 4.38% [1] Industry Commentary: Computer - The release of the "Opinions on Accelerating the Development and Utilization of Public Data Resources" by the Central Committee and the State Council is expected to catalyze the marketization of public data [2][3] - The National Data Bureau plans to introduce eight institutional documents to enhance data element value, including data property rights and data circulation [2][3] Industry Commentary: Solar Energy - In August 2024, domestic photovoltaic (PV) installations increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a cumulative installation of 140.0 GW from January to August, representing a 23.7% increase [6][7] - The export value of inverters in August was 61.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.2% [6][7] - The total solar power generation in August was 386.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 21.7% [7] Industry Commentary: Textile and Apparel - From January to August 2024, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to 930.69 billion and 1,047.06 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% and a decline of 1.0% respectively [8][9] - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports from January to September 2024 reached 274.38 billion and 165.38 billion USD, with year-on-year growth of 8.9% and 12.5% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the computer industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 10% [1][5]. Core Viewpoints - Recent policies have been introduced to accelerate the marketization of public data resources, with specific goals set for 2025 and 2030 regarding the development and utilization of public data [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of data element marketization, highlighting the expected compound annual growth rate of over 15% for the data industry by 2029 [1][2]. - Key focus areas for investment include state-owned data element companies and those with a presence in critical sectors such as government and healthcare [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer industry has seen significant policy developments aimed at enhancing the utilization of public data resources, which is expected to drive market growth [1]. - The National Data Bureau has outlined a two-phase goal for public data resource development, with initial rules expected by 2025 and full maturity by 2030 [1]. Policy Developments - The report notes that multiple policy documents have been released, including guidelines for promoting high-quality data industry development and the establishment of a national data standard system by the end of 2026 [1][2]. - Specific measures include the establishment of a public data open directory and improved management of data resource operations [1]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including those with state-owned backgrounds and those operating in key sectors like government and healthcare [2][3]. - Data security firms are also highlighted as important players in the evolving landscape of data utilization [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the computer industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by over 10% [6]. Core Insights - The recent policy developments are expected to accelerate the marketization of public data resources, with specific goals set for 2025 and 2030 regarding the establishment of a regulatory framework and the cultivation of data-driven enterprises [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of public data resource allocation and operational requirements, emphasizing the need for a dynamic public data open directory and improved management of data resources and authorized operators [2][3]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The computer industry has seen significant policy announcements aimed at enhancing the development and utilization of public data resources, which are anticipated to drive market growth [1][3]. Policy Developments - The Central Committee and State Council have issued opinions to expedite the development of public data resources, with a focus on establishing a regulatory framework by 2025 and achieving a mature system by 2030 [2][3]. - Recent policies include the promotion of high-quality data industry development and the establishment of a national data standard system by the end of 2026 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on data element vendors with state-owned backgrounds, such as Cloud Sai Zhilian and Guangdian Yuntong, as well as companies with a presence in key sectors like government and healthcare [3][4]. - Data security firms are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities, including companies like Jida Zhengyuan and Qiming Star [4].