研究早观点 2024 年 8 月 14 日 星期三 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【山证化工】万华化学（600309.SH）2024 年中报点评-底部盈利进一 步夯实，POE 及乙烷裂解将带来新增量 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,867.95 | 0.34 | | 深证成指 | 8,409.22 | 0.43 | | 沪深 300 | 3,334.39 | 0.26 | | 中小板指 | 5,402.53 | 0.28 | | 创业板指 | 1,607.19 | 0.93 | | 科创 50 | 710.75 | 0.48 | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20240805-20240811）-——千帆首批组网 星发射，卫星互联网产业迈入新阶段 【行业评论】化学原料：新材料周报（240805-0809）-折叠屏手机高景 气，三折设 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within 6-12 months [2][3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with a 13.63% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2024, reaching 502 million yuan, and a 32.09% increase in net profit, amounting to 52 million yuan [2][3]. - The company's main business line, network security products, has been a significant driver of revenue growth, achieving a 12.55% increase in revenue to 366 million yuan in the first half of 2024 [3]. - The company is expected to continue growing alongside the development of the security industry, leveraging self-developed hardware and promoting application delivery products to enhance profitability [3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 68.54%, an increase of 1.07% year-on-year, primarily due to improved margins in application delivery and network products [3]. - The company’s net profit margin reached 10.36%, up 1.45% year-on-year, reflecting effective cost control measures [3]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.24, 0.30, and 0.37 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 47.71, 38.48, and 31.18 [3][5]. Market Segmentation - Government client revenue reached 161 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.54%, with a gross margin of 78.94% [1]. - Revenue from operator clients was 135 million yuan, a decrease of 10.37% year-on-year, primarily due to the timing of revenue recognition [1]. - Public utility client revenue grew by 7.94% year-on-year, reaching 84 million yuan, making it the company's third-largest downstream sector [1].

非银行金融 行业周报（20240805-20240809） 领先大市-A(维持)) 券商业务资格新规推出，关注券商中报业绩 2024 年 8 月 14 日 行业研究/行业周报 非银行金融行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 业绩分化下关注超预期券商-行业周报 （20240722-20240728） 2024.7.31 【山证非银】业绩披露季，关注部分超 预 期 可 能 - 行 业 周 报 （20240715-20240721） 2024.7.22 刘丽 执业登记编码：S0760511050001 电话：0351--8686985 电话：0351-8686900 邮箱：liuli2@sxzq.com 孙田田 执业登记编码：S0760518030001 邮箱：suntiantian@sxzq.com 证监会就券商业务资格新规征求意见。近日证监会就《证券公 司业务资格管理办法》及相关配套规则征求意见。明确资格种类、 不同业务资格管理方式、统一资格准入，同时健全证券公司业务资 格的强制退出机制，即对违法违规的证券公司，证监会可依法撤销 证券业务许可。提出业务规模持续一定时间低于规定标准的应主动 申请注销相关业务许可，并 ...

非银行金融 行业周报（20240805-20240809） 领先大市-A(维持)) 券商业务资格新规推出，关注券商中报业绩 2024 年 8 月 14 日 行业研究/行业周报 非银行金融行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 业绩分化下关注超预期券商-行业周报 （20240722-20240728） 2024.7.31 【山证非银】业绩披露季，关注部分超 预 期 可 能 - 行 业 周 报 （20240715-20240721） 2024.7.22 刘丽 执业登记编码：S0760511050001 电话：0351--8686985 电话：0351-8686900 邮箱：liuli2@sxzq.com 孙田田 执业登记编码：S0760518030001 邮箱：suntiantian@sxzq.com 证监会就券商业务资格新规征求意见。近日证监会就《证券公 司业务资格管理办法》及相关配套规则征求意见。明确资格种类、 不同业务资格管理方式、统一资格准入，同时健全证券公司业务资 格的强制退出机制，即对违法违规的证券公司，证监会可依法撤销 证券业务许可。提出业务规模持续一定时间低于规定标准的应主动 申请注销相关业务许可，并 ...

· 太阳能 光伏行业中期策略 同步大市-A(维持) 不惧阵痛，低碳前行 2024 年 8 月 14 日 行业研究/行业中期策略 太阳能板块近一年市场表现 300274.SZ 阳光电源 买入-A 605117.SH 德业股份 买入-A 601865.SH 福莱特 买入-A 601012.SH 隆基绿能 买入-A 600732.SH 爱旭股份 买入-A 【山证太阳能】国务院明确提出将碳排 放指标纳入国民经济和社会发展规划 2024.8.4 分析师： 肖索 执业登记编码：S0760522030006 邮箱：xiaosuo@sxzq.com 贾惠淋 执业登记编码：S0760523070001 邮箱：jiahuilin@sxzq.com 投资要点： 光伏行业供需失衡，产品价格阶段性下行： 需求有望达到 1000GW。 1）光伏行业需求增速阶段性下行：国内来看，受 2023 年基数较高等因素影 响，2024 年 1-6 月，全国光伏新增装机同比+30.7%，短期增速放缓。展望后 续，国家碳达峰碳中和目标不变，二十大三中全会强调了健全绿色低碳发展 机制；叠加国家陆续出台政策强调保障可再生能源消纳能力，新能源装机长 期景气度 ...

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------| | | | | 基础数据： 2024 年 6 月 30 日 | | | 每股净资产（元）： | 62.89 | | 每股资本公积（元）： | -14.06 | | 每股未分配利润（元）： | 55.08 | 执业登记编码：S0760523050002 邮箱：gaoyuyang@sxzq.com 张天 2024H1，公司家庭市场收入 698.35 亿元，同比+7.5%，占主营业务收入 比 15.1%。其中，家庭宽带收入 511.60 亿元，同比 9.0%；智慧家庭收入 180.66 资料来源：最闻 亿元，同比 4.5%。家庭宽带客户 2.72 亿户，净增 848 万户；千兆宽带客户 9125 万户，同比+51.2%；FTTR 客户 505 万户，同比+296.4%。家庭客户综 分析师： 合 ARPU 为 43.4 元，同比+0.2%。家庭市场收入稳步增长主要由于用户数增 加（全年目标净增 1800 万），千兆宽带渗透、FTTR 客户发展、智家+内容用 户增长驱动家庭用户 ARPU 值保持稳定。 证券 ...

化学制剂 人福医药（600079.SH） 买入-B(维持) 业绩基本符合预期，麻醉药持续放量 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 2024 年 7 月 26 日，公司发布 2024 年半年报。2024 年 H1 公司营收 128.6 亿元（+3.9%）；实现归母净利润 11.1 亿元（-16.1%），主要系上年同期公司 出售资产及债务重组实现的非经常性损益所致；实现归母扣非净利润 10.89 亿元（+1.68%）。 事件点评 市场数据：2024 年 8 月 13 日 收盘价（元）： 20.10 年内最高/最低（元）： 27.36/15.68 流通A股/总股本（亿）： 15.37/16.32 流通 A 股市值（亿）： 308.91 总市值（亿）： 328.08 基础数据：2024 年 6 月 30 日 基本每股收益(元)： 0.68 摊薄每股收益(元)： 0.68 每股净资产(元)： 12.43 净资产收益率(%)： 7.17 资料来源：最闻 魏赟 执业登记编码：S0760522030005 邮箱：weiyun@sxzq.com 归核聚焦制药主业盈利凸显，仿创结合管线逐步丰富。公司持续剥离非 核心业务，正在出售武汉康 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [3][4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the first half of the year, with stable profitability from its main products, including fertilizers and polyformaldehyde. The "mineralization integration" and full industry chain operational advantages have contributed to this success [1][4]. - The company is well-positioned in the phosphate chemical industry, benefiting from tight supply conditions and strong resource security. Its phosphate reserves are nearly 800 million tons, with an annual mining capacity of 14.5 million tons, ranking among the top in the country [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in performance due to continuous improvements in operational efficiency, procurement integration, and optimized debt structure [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter, the company achieved revenue of 18.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.19% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.382 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.01% [1][4]. - For the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 31.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.841 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.10% [4][5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for the first half of 2024 was 1.55 yuan, with a projected EPS of 2.57, 2.68, and 2.80 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7]. Market Data - As of August 13, 2024, the closing price of the company's stock was 20.00 yuan, with a year-to-date high of 22.10 yuan and a low of 14.09 yuan. The circulating A-shares market capitalization is 36.687 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 15.29% and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected at 7.7, 7.3, and 7.0 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7].

证券研究报告 ——2024 年 7 月金融数据点评 2024 年 8 月 14 日 宏观研究/事件点评 投资要点： 7 月新增社融大幅低于预期，弱于季节性。结构上，一是信贷大幅回落， 相关报告： 7 月 LPR 调降对信贷推动有限，主因实际利率依然偏高。尤其需要关注企 业中长期贷款今年来首次大幅回落，本质上是企业主动融资意愿偏弱。二是 随着信用债发行利率、票据利率大幅下降，企业债券表现平稳，表内票据大 幅增加，显示企业对融资利率仍较为敏感。三是政府债券发行节奏有所加快， 分析师： 三季度政府债券有望成为支撑社融的主力。总体看，信贷和政府债券融资节 郭瑞 奏仍错位，政策合力尚待优化。 执业登记编码：S0760514050002 新增社融大幅低于预期，弱于季节性。7 月社融新增 7708 亿元，大幅低 电话：0351-8686977 于万得一致预期的 1.02 万亿元，同时大幅弱于季节性（2016-2019 年同期均 邮箱：guorui@sxzq.com 值为 1.43 万亿元，2020-2023 年同期均值为 1.02 万亿元）。7 末社融存量同比 张治 增长 8.2%，高于前值 0.1 个百分点，主因去年新增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) [1] Core Views - The polyurethane industry demand continues to grow, with the company achieving a revenue of 35.455 billion yuan from polyurethane series, up 8.19% year-on-year, and a sales volume of 2.69 million tons, up 14.47% year-on-year [1][3] - The company is expected to benefit from the ethane cracking project, which will bring additional volume, and the optimization of product structure is progressing steadily [2][5] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 97.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.77%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.6% to 8.174 billion yuan [3] - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 16.41%, a slight decline of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year, with a period expense ratio of 5.5%, up 0.67 percentage points from the previous year [1][3] Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 17.061 billion yuan, 22.176 billion yuan, and 25.463 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.43, 7.06, and 8.11 yuan [5][6] - The company’s P/E ratios for the same years are expected to be 13.8, 10.6, and 9.2 times [5][6] Market Conditions - The global polyurethane industry demand remains strong, with growth in markets such as refrigeration and automotive, while the petrochemical industry is experiencing low profit levels due to various factors including international oil price fluctuations [1][3]