[Table_Authors] 分析师: 宫慧菁 执业证书编号： S0270524010001 电话： 020-32255208 邮箱： gonghj@wlzq.com.cn [Table_ReportType] ——2024 年中期策略投资报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 06 月 18 日 ⚫ 2024 上半年 A 股市场回顾：A 股年初下行后明显回升，4 月 以来窄幅震荡。5 月至今 A 股量价有所回落，主要宽幅指数 箱体震荡。从风格看，各风格板块较 2023 下半年均实现不 同程度的回升，其中稳定、金融和周期风格指数由跌转涨。 分行业看，行业自身防御属性较强与红利低波策略受追捧 下，银行业涨幅居行业首位。 ⚫ A 股市场流动性处于改善通道中：今年 1-2 月 A 股市场流 动性转弱，资金呈流出趋势，多数板块出现下跌。3 月以来， 随着金融监管总局、证监会、交易所等强调建设以投资者 为本的资本市场，着力稳定投资者预期，鼓励中长期资金 加配权益市场，市场逐步回暖，资金净流出情况改善。随着 国内经济增速有望回升、企业盈利逐步改善，同时系列新 政策增强市场信心，长线资金加配 A 股的意 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [8]. Core Insights - TSMC plans to raise prices for advanced packaging, with an estimated increase of 10%-20% in advanced packaging quotes by 2025 due to supply-demand imbalance [1]. - The advanced packaging market is projected to grow rapidly, with the global market size expected to increase from $37.8 billion in 2023 to $69.5 billion by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7% [2]. - TSMC aims to expand its CoWoS capacity at a CAGR of over 60% until 2026, potentially increasing capacity to four times the 2023 level, while SoIC capacity is expected to grow at a 100% CAGR, reaching six times the 2023 level by the end of 2026 [2]. - The demand for advanced packaging is driven by the rise of AI accelerator hardware, with major clients like NVIDIA accounting for about half of TSMC's advanced packaging capacity [2]. - The investment from major players in the advanced packaging sector is expected to reach approximately $11.5 billion in 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Advanced Packaging Demand - The demand for advanced packaging is significantly driven by the launch of AI models with trillions of parameters, leading to increased hardware requirements [2]. - TSMC's advanced packaging clients include major companies such as AMD, Broadcom, Amazon, and Marvell, indicating a strong market demand [2]. Market Growth and Investment - The advanced packaging market is experiencing robust growth due to strong demand from mobile, consumer electronics, telecommunications, infrastructure, and automotive sectors [2]. - Major companies are expected to continue investing heavily in advanced packaging technologies, with TSMC, Intel, Samsung, and others leading the charge [2]. Chiplet Technology - Chiplet technology is seen as a key solution for advancing heterogeneous integration in packaging, allowing for modular production and improved performance [2]. - This technology is expected to provide a cost-effective solution for high-performance chips in the context of limited external conditions for developing advanced processes domestically [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional packaging manufacturers that are upgrading their technologies and leading companies in the Chiplet technology space [3].

[Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 06 月 18 日 星期二 【市场回顾】 周一 A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.55%，深成指收 涨 0.31%，创业板指收涨 0.83%。沪深两市成交额 7514.36 亿元，北 向资金净流出 33.01 亿元。申万行业方面，电子、电力设备、汽车领 涨，煤炭、钢铁、房地产领跌；概念板块方面，AI 手机、PCB 概念、 AI PC 领涨，租售同权、特色小镇、煤炭概念领跌。港股方面，恒生 指数收跌 0.03%，恒生科技指数收涨 0.05%；海外方面，美国三大指 数集体收涨，道指收涨 0.49%，标普 500 收涨 0.77%，纳指收涨 0.95%。 【重要新闻】 【国家统计局发布 5 月国民经济数据】中国 5 月份国民经济延续回 升向好态势，运行总体平稳。国家统计局发布数据显示，5 月份规模 以上工业增加值同比增长 5.6%，环比增长 0.30%；社会消费品零售总 额 39211 亿元，同比增长 3.7%，比 4 月加快 1.4 个百分点，环比增 长 0.51%。1-5 月份，中国固定资产投资（不含农户）188006 亿元， 同比增长 ...

Market Indicators - During the week of June 11 to June 14, major A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the CSI 300 index experiencing the largest decline of 0.91%, followed by the Shanghai Composite Index at -0.61%. The STAR 50 and ChiNext indices saw increases of 2.21% and 0.58% respectively [5][33]. - The average daily trading volume for the two markets was 744.79 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.07%. The electronics sector was the most active, with a trading volume of 573.13 billion yuan, followed by power equipment and pharmaceutical sectors at 220.55 billion yuan and 204.00 billion yuan respectively [8][18]. Liquidity Indicators - As of June 14, the net inflow of funds into the A-share market was 620.26 billion yuan, with a large single net amount (BBD) of -32.44 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total buying amount of 167.20 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 17.14 billion yuan, marking a significant week-on-week decrease of 423.07% [39][23]. Valuation Levels - As of June 14, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai 50 index was at a historical percentile of approximately 60.70% since 2010. Among the major indices, only six sectors had PE ratios exceeding the historical 50th percentile [44][47]. - The current valuation levels for various sectors indicate that the non-bank financial sector (55.46%), coal (60.20%), and basic chemicals (63.40%) are above the historical 50th percentile, while sectors like social services, power equipment, and computer industries are below the historical 10th percentile [47][48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that are aligned with the development of new productive forces, equipment upgrades, and the replacement of consumer goods. Additionally, it highlights that growth sectors are showing improved conditions, while defensive configurations in dividend styles continue to attract capital [50].

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|银行 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 研 财政发力 存款增速环比回升 0.1% (维持) 究 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——银行行业月报 2024年06月17日 [事Ta件ble：_S ummary] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 2024年6月14日，中国人民银行发布2024年5月金融统计数据 报告、社融存量以及增量统计数据报告。 银行 沪深300 20% 15% 10% 投资要点： 5% 行 0% 5月社融存量增速8.4%，增速环比回升0.1%：5月，社融新增2.07 -5% 业 -10% 万亿元，同比多增。其中企业债融资和政府债融资是主要拉动项。 -15% 月 -20% 存量规模391.9万亿元，同比增速8.4%，增速环比回升0.1%，符 -25% 报 合市场预期，政府债发行提速，支撑社融增速小幅回升。 数据来源：聚源，万联证券研究所 信贷增长延续弱势：5月，新增人民币贷款9500亿元，同比少增 [相Ta关ble研_R ...

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|社会服务 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 (维持) 研 深巷烟火藏故事，万国风华汇一堂 究 [Table_ReportTyp—e] —2024年中期社会服务行业投资策略报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年06月14日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar：y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 2024年一季度，社会服务板块业绩增长亮眼，领跑市场，但行情整体承 社会服务 沪深300 压，板块面临外部经济不确定性增加与内部需求疲软的双重挑战。在消费 10% 5% 行 分层加剧，高性价比与悦己、品质型消费观并存以及内容形式多样、鼓励 0% -5% 业 用户自发创造和分享的新媒体平台迅猛发展的大背景下，旅游底层逻辑正 -10% -15% 投 在面临从资源服务延伸到内容服务，由“权威推荐”转向“真实分享”， -20% -25% -30% 由“热门旅游城市”转向“小众目的地”，由“游山玩水”转向“深度体 资 -35% -40% 验”的更新迭代。一方面，小众目的地逐渐兴 ...

[Table_Title] 万联晨会 核心观点 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|------------------------|--------| | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 | \n指数名称 收盘 涨跌幅 | % | | 上证指数 | 3,032.63 | 0.12% | | 深证成指 | 9,252.25 | 0.50% | | 沪深 300 | 3,541.53 | 0.44% | | 科创 50 | 754.26 | -0.62% | | 创业板指 | 1,791.36 | 0.76% | | 上证 50 | 2,426.51 | 0.60% | | 上证 180 | 7,765.77 | 0.37% | | 上证基金 | 5,997.17 | 0.28% | | | | | [Table_MeetContact] 主持人: 叶柏良 $$start$$ 【重要新闻】 深巷烟火藏故事，万国风华汇一堂 万千财富，与您相连 万千财富，与您相连 [Table_AdressInfo ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of AI empowerment across various industries in Guangdong Province, aiming to enhance productivity and establish a new economic growth driver by 2025 and 2027, with the AI core industry scale expected to exceed 300 billion and 440 billion respectively [17][26] - The rapid growth of the AI industry in Guangdong is highlighted, with an estimated core industry scale of nearly 180 billion in 2023, reflecting an approximate 18% year-on-year increase, and a significant number of AI-related enterprises registered [17][26] - The report outlines specific measures to strengthen the AI industry chain, including the construction of a robust AI computing power foundation and the development of over 100 large-scale intelligent terminal products across various application scenarios [2][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the accelerated construction of the domestic AI industry chain, particularly in data factor industries, domestic computing power and storage demand, as well as the rapid deployment of applications in AIGC and intelligent driving sectors [2][17] - The measures introduced by the Guangdong government are expected to further enhance the advantages of the AI industry and facilitate the transformation of economic growth drivers [17] Application Scenarios - The report identifies eight major categories for AI application, including mobile phones, computers, home appliances, and robotics, with a goal of creating over 500 application scenarios in sectors such as manufacturing, education, and elderly care to improve labor productivity [2][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The Guangdong Provincial Government has issued measures to empower AI across various industries, aiming for the AI core industry scale to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2025 and 440 billion yuan by 2027 [1]. - The AI industry in Guangdong is rapidly growing, with an expected core industry scale of nearly 180 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting an approximate 18% year-on-year growth [2]. - The measures aim to strengthen the AI industry's development advantages and complete the industrial chain, facilitating the transformation into new economic growth drivers [2]. - The focus is on building a robust AI infrastructure, including advancements in chips, software, and algorithms, to support the widespread application of AI in various sectors [2]. - Specific application scenarios are outlined, targeting eight major categories such as mobile phones and robotics, with plans to develop over 100 widely used smart terminal products and 500 application scenarios in fields like manufacturing and education [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Growth - Guangdong's AI industry is projected to grow significantly, with a core industry scale of nearly 180 billion yuan in 2023, marking an 18% increase year-on-year [2]. - The number of AI-related enterprises in Guangdong reached 244,800 by May 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [2]. Policy Measures - The recent measures build upon previous policies to accelerate the formation of new productive forces, emphasizing the construction of a national AI computing power hub and innovation ecosystems [2]. - The measures specify tasks for solidifying the AI infrastructure, including the development of foundational technologies and platforms [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the accelerated construction of the domestic AI industry chain, particularly in data elements, domestic computing power, and storage demands, as well as the rapid deployment of applications in AIGC and intelligent driving [3].

Core Insights - The tourism industry is steadily recovering during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a total of 110 million domestic tourists, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and total spending of 40.35 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year [26][21] - The demand for tourism is normalizing, with a significant portion of travelers being young people, particularly those born in the 2000s, who accounted for 37% of travelers, showing a nearly 30% increase in travel numbers compared to last year [21][8] - Cultural trends, particularly the resurgence of traditional Chinese culture, are driving tourism experiences, with many tourists engaging in activities related to national customs and heritage [21][8] Market Review - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.08%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.44% [29][13] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 690 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.335 billion yuan from northbound funds [29][13] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.31%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.71% [29][15] Economic Indicators - In May, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year, with a core CPI increase of 0.6%, indicating a stable consumption market [14][7] - The green electricity consumption in China exceeded 180 billion kilowatt-hours in the first five months of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 327% [14][7]