[Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 05 月 08 日 星期三 【市场回顾】 周二 A 股缩量震荡，三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.22%， 深成指跌 0.08%，创业板指跌 0.14%，沪深两市成交额 9685 亿元，北 向资金净卖出 21.40 亿元。行业方面，国防军工、基础化工、房地产 行业领涨；家用电器、通信、公用事业行业领跌。概念板块方面，染 料、成飞概念、民爆概念领涨；ST 板块、胎压监测、星闪概念概念领 跌。港股方面，恒生指数跌 0.53%，恒生科技指数跌 2.13%。海外方 面，美国三大股指涨跌不一，道指涨 0.08%，标普 500 指数涨 0.13%， 纳指跌 0.10%；欧洲主要股指普遍上涨，亚太股市涨跌不一。 研报精选 [Table_Summary] 概览 【重要新闻】 "五一"旅游持续火热，关注行业下沉化与多元化趋势 基金重仓配置维持低配，影视院线板块市场关注度提升 粉丝效应及喜剧刚需撑起五一档票房，市场维持显著复苏态势 光学光电子及 PCB 板块较受关注，基金配置趋向多元化 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------ ...

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|电子 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 光学光电子及 PCB 板块较受关注，基金配置 强于大市 研 (维持) 究 趋向多元化 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——电子行业跟踪报告 2024年05月07日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar：y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 SW电子24Q1基金重仓及超配比例环比均有所回落。适配比例方面，SW 电子 沪深300 电子行业2024年Q1适配比例为7.39%，环比-0.46pct，同比+0.17pct， 15% 10% 处于历史较高水平；基金重仓比例方面，SW 电子行业 2024 年 Q1 基金 行 5% 重仓比例为12.08%，环比-1.89pct，同比+2.66pct；超配比例方面，SW 0% 业 -5% 电子行业2024年Q1基金重仓超配比例为4.69%，环比-1.42pct，同比 -10% 跟 -15% +2.49pct。 踪 -20% -25% 报 投资要点： -30% 告 前十大重 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company reported a 30% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023, with a steady growth in Q1 2024 [3] - The company achieved a revenue of 71.436 billion yuan in 2023, representing a 13.37% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 2.214 billion yuan, which is a 30.23% increase [3] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 19.50 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, totaling 1.02 billion yuan [3] - In Q1 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 25.630 billion yuan, up 4.36% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.802 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% increase [3] - The jewelry segment showed robust revenue growth, with an increase of 15.44% year-on-year, totaling 58.136 billion yuan in 2023 [3] - The company expanded its marketing network by adding 385 new stores, reaching a total of 5,994 marketing outlets by the end of 2023 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 8.30%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 4.17%, up 0.57 percentage points [3] - For Q1 2024, the gross profit margin was 8.37%, and the net profit margin was 4.11%, both showing year-on-year increases [3] - The company’s operating expenses remained stable, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios reported at 1.48%, 0.69%, 0.20%, and 0.05% respectively for 2023 [3] Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 79.066 billion yuan, 88.235 billion yuan, and 98.538 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 10.68%, 11.60%, and 11.68% [4] - Net profit is expected to reach 2.547 billion yuan, 2.897 billion yuan, and 3.306 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 15.00%, 13.77%, and 14.12% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.87 yuan, 5.54 yuan, and 6.32 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|社会服务 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 研 行业需求回暖，业绩边际改善 (维持) 究 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——社会服务行业 2023 年年度业绩综述报告 2024年05月06日 [投Ta资ble要_S点um：m ary] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 社服需求回暖，业绩大幅改善。2023年社会服务行业实现营收1396.53 社会服务 沪深300 亿元（YoY+31.16%），归母净利润合计90.20亿元（YoY+233.12%）， 5% 0% 营收和归母净利润增速在申万31个一级子行业中分别排名第1和第2， -5% 行 -10% 业绩大幅改善，盈利能力触底反弹，费用小幅下行。 -15% 业 -20% -25% 跟 ⚫ 旅游及景区板块：2023 年板块业绩显著提升，费用率大幅回落，营收 -30% -35% 踪 及归母净利润同比分别+115.88%、+150.81%。行业限制逐渐放宽，不断 -40% 报 恢复发展，国家层 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9][26]. Core Views - The company's revenue from gold and jewelry business has seen significant growth, while the women's bag business is under short-term pressure. The company is actively exploring the cultivated diamond market [2]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 59.00 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.56%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.33 billion yuan, up 67.41% year-on-year [21]. - The company has launched several new products in the fashion jewelry and traditional gold jewelry categories, with revenues of 29.89 billion yuan and 22.65 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20.43% and 56.75% [2]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company has strengthened its operations in the fashion product category, launching several new national style series products [2]. - The revenue from the leather goods segment was 3.71 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 14.41% [2]. - The company has actively explored the cultivated diamond market, launching new brands and products in collaboration with a joint venture [2]. Financial Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.43, 0.49, and 0.56 yuan per share respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times based on the stock price as of May 6, 2024 [9]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 14.79%, 13.80%, and 13.33% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [22]. Market Strategy - The company is expanding its offline presence by increasing the number of jewelry franchise stores and enhancing its online sales through live streaming and other digital marketing strategies [14]. - In 2023, the company added 293 new jewelry franchise stores and achieved online sales revenue of 12.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.91% [14].

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[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 05 月 07 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周一 A 股三大指数集体上涨，截至收盘，沪指涨 1.16%，深成指涨 2.00%，创业板指涨 1.98%，沪深两市成交额 11021 亿元，北向资金 净买入 93.16 亿元。行业方面，美容护理、基础化工、轻工制造行业 领涨；仅通信、银行行业小幅收跌。概念板块方面，合成生物、染料、 燃料乙醇概念领涨；ST 板块、量子科技、云办公概念领跌。港股方 面，恒生指数涨 0.55%，恒生科技指数跌 0.92%。海外方面，美国三 大股指集体收涨，道指涨 0.46%，标普 500 指数涨 1.03%，纳指涨 1.19%；欧洲及亚太股市多数收涨。 政策推动加量提质，聚焦当下重点问题 行业需求回暖，业绩边际改善 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|---------------------|----------| | [Table_InterIndex] \n指数名称 | ...

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|房地产 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 研 首提消化存量房产，关注后续政策进展 (维持) 究 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——房地产行业快评报告 2024年05月06日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar：y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 房地产行业修复仍曲折推进，基于此次政治局会议表态，我 们认为后续政策端在围绕供给端以项目为主体的保交楼政策 房地产 沪深300 10% 仍会持续推进、以房企为主体的融资端政策仍会获得支持； 5% 0% 行 需求端核心城市尤其是一线城市限购、首付比例调降等政策 -5% -10% 业 仍值得期待，房贷利率调降预计仍有空间，近期北京、天津 -15% -20% 快 均出台了放松限购等政策，对于释放部分需求以及提振购房 -25% -30% 评 者信心具有重要意义；库存方面，预计未来围绕新房库存去 -35% -40% 报 化以及“以旧换新”等盘活库存类的政策或将逐步推出。此 -45% 告 外，此次 ...

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|社会服务 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 五一出行需求旺盛，出境游与县域旅游备受 强于大市 研 (维持) 究 青睐 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——社会服务行业周观点(04.29-05.05) 2024年05月06日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar：y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 上周（4月29日-5月5日）沪深300指数上涨0.56%、申万社会服务 指数上涨 0.49%，社会服务指数跑输沪深 300 指数 0.07 个百分点，在 社会服务 沪深300 10% 申万 31 个一级行业指数涨跌幅排第 23。年初至今沪深 300 指数上涨 5% 0% 行 5.05%、申万社会服务指数下跌9.45%，申万社会指数跑输沪深 300指 -5% -10% 数14.5个百分点，在申万31个一级子行业中涨跌幅排名第25。上周社 业 -15% -20% 会服务子板块中旅游及景区、专业服务出现下跌，分别为-1.67%、- 周 -25% -30% ...

Economic Outlook - The current economic recovery in China is primarily restorative, with insufficient internal momentum and demand challenges[3] - By December 2023, the economy is expected to show a rebound, with a focus on qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth[3] Policy Direction - The policy focus is on stabilizing and expanding demand to support ongoing economic recovery[3] - Active fiscal policies are to be enhanced for effectiveness, with an emphasis on timely issuance of special bonds and maintaining necessary fiscal spending intensity[3] Monetary Policy - A prudent monetary policy is expected to remain flexible and effective, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments[3] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is anticipated in Q2 2024, which may enhance coordination with monetary policy[10] Real Estate Sector - Policies will continue to address real estate risks, promoting a new development model while ensuring housing supply meets demand[10] - The focus will be on local policies to support housing needs and stabilize the market[10] Investment Recommendations - The stock market may benefit from ongoing policy support, with attention to liquidity and price indicators such as M1 and PPI[3] - The bond market may face pressure in the long term as the economy stabilizes, despite short-term rate declines[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations and external economic conditions adversely affecting exports[12]