市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 09 日 星期五 研报精选 "五一"旅游市场平稳增长，长线游与入境游表现亮眼 家电行业 25Q1 基金持仓跟踪报告 交运行业 25Q1 公募基金持仓跟踪报告 | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 3,352.00 | 0.28% | | 深证成指 | 10,197.66 | 0.93% | | 沪深 300 | 3,852.90 | 0.56% | | 科创 50 | 1,026.44 | -0.36% | | 创业板指 | 2,029.45 | 1.65% | | 上证 50 | 2,679.51 | 0.33% | | 上证 180 | 8,546.20 | 0.14% | | 上证基金 | 6,902.65 | 0.35% | | 国债指数 | 224.77 | 0.05% | | [Table_InterIndex] | 国际市场表现 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [5][32]. Core Insights - The transportation industry has seen a continuous decline in public fund holdings for three consecutive quarters, indicating a low allocation status. As of Q1 2025, the total market value of public fund holdings in the SW transportation industry was 42.588 billion, down 15.3% from Q4 2024, and accounted for 1.41% of the total market value of public fund holdings in A-shares, which is below the benchmark allocation by 2.07 percentage points [2][11]. - The report highlights that all sub-sectors within the transportation industry experienced reductions in holdings, with defensive sectors like road and rail potentially gaining favor due to tariff war disturbances, while cyclical sectors like aviation may continue to recover and exceed expectations due to ongoing domestic demand expansion policies [1][3][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Decline in Heavyweight Allocation - The total market value of public fund holdings in the SW transportation industry as of Q1 2025 was 42.588 billion, reflecting a 15.3% decrease from Q4 2024. This represents a continuous decline over three quarters [2][11]. 2. Stocks: General Reduction Across Sub-sectors - All sub-sectors faced reductions, with specific impacts noted: - **Logistics**: Major reductions in cross-border logistics stocks, while some stocks like China Foreign Trade and JD Logistics saw increases [3][22]. - **Shipping and Ports**: Most stocks in the port sector were reduced, with only a few like Beibu Gulf Port seeing increases [3][22]. - **Rail and Road**: Mixed performance with some highway stocks like Guangdong Expressway A seeing increases, while others faced reductions [3][22]. - **Aviation**: Stocks like China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines saw increases, while others faced significant reductions [3][22]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while the transportation industry is currently underweighted, the defensive attributes of road and rail sectors may attract interest amidst tariff uncertainties. Conversely, the aviation sector may benefit from domestic demand policies, suggesting a potential for recovery and exceeding expectations [1][30].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market within the next six months [3][17]. Core Insights - The tourism market is experiencing steady growth, with domestic travel reaching 314 million trips during the "May Day" holiday, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Total spending by domestic tourists amounted to 180.27 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.0% increase [2][8]. - Long-distance travel destinations are gaining popularity, with ticket sales in regions like Qinghai, Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Gansu showing a significant year-on-year increase of 100% to 200%. The inbound tourism market is also rebounding strongly, with a 130% year-on-year surge in inbound travel orders [2][12]. - The introduction of policies such as a 240-hour visa-free stay and the "immediate refund" tax policy is driving an increase in inbound tourist numbers [10][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Steady Growth in the Tourism Market - The tourism market is maintaining steady growth, with a total of 314 million domestic trips taken during the "May Day" holiday, a 6.4% increase from the previous year. Domestic tourist spending reached 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [2][8]. 2. Rise of Long-Distance Travel Destinations - The reduction in working days has led to more tourists opting for early bird or staggered trips, significantly boosting long-distance travel destinations. Ticket sales in regions like Qinghai, Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Gansu have seen a year-on-year increase of 100% to 200% [12][14]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on scenic spots and performance companies that demonstrate stable operating performance and effectively meet personalized and diversified demands [15].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 星期四 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 证 券 研 究 报 告 周三 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.8%，深成指收 涨 0.22%，创业板指收涨 0.51%。沪深两市成交额 14680.98 亿元。申 万行业方面，国防军工、银行、基础化工领涨，传媒、计算机、电子 领跌；概念板块方面，兵装重组概念、成飞概念、转基因涨幅居前， 中国 AI 50、华为盘古、Sora 概念跌幅居前。港股方面，恒生指数收 涨 0.13%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.75%；海外方面，美国三大指数集体 收涨，道指收涨 0.7%，标普 500 收涨 0.43%，纳指收涨 0.27%。 【重要新闻】 【三部门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期】央行宣布推出十项政策 措施，其中包括全面降准 0.5 个百分点，下调政策利率 0.1 个百分 点，降低结构性货币政策工具利率和公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点， 设立 5000 亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等。金融监管总局将推出 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperforming the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market within the next six months [4][13]. Core Insights - The series of financial policies announced are expected to positively impact the consumption industry by enhancing market liquidity, supporting the real economy, and stabilizing market expectations [2][3]. - The reduction in mortgage rates is anticipated to boost the real estate market, thereby improving consumer purchasing power and stimulating consumption [3][9]. - The policies are designed to support the service and elderly care sectors, which are projected to experience significant growth due to demographic changes and a shift towards service consumption [9][10]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China has implemented several measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, which are expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2][3]. - The establishment of a 500 billion yuan loan facility for service consumption and elderly care is aimed at enhancing credit support for these sectors [2][10]. Sectoral Opportunities - **Social Services**: The tourism and hospitality sectors are expected to benefit from improved consumer sentiment and increased domestic travel, with a focus on tourism, duty-free shopping, and restaurant chains [10]. - **Retail**: The jewelry sector is likely to see growth due to rising gold prices and consumer preference for domestic brands, while the cosmetics industry is expected to gain market share from foreign brands [10][11]. - **Light Industry**: The home appliance and furniture sectors are projected to recover as real estate stabilizes and "trade-in" policies are implemented [10]. - **Food and Beverage**: The liquor industry is anticipated to rebound due to recovering demand, while the broader food sector is expected to benefit from declining costs and increased consumption [11][12].

2025Q1 利润稳健，门店优化推动长期发展 [Table_StockName] ——大参林（603233）点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] [Table_Summary] 事件: 4 月 26 日，公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报。2024 年，公司实 现总营业收入 264.97 亿元（+8.01%）；实现归母净利润 9.15 亿元（- 21.58%）。2025Q1，公司实现总营业收入 69.56 亿元（+3.02%）；实现归 母净利润 4.60 亿元（+15.45%）。 投资要点: 深耕华南，积极实施省外扩张战略 公司持续新开门店、并购和新拓展加盟等方式，继续下沉已布局区域的 二、三级市场，同步开拓重要区域的新市场，保持零售业务规模优势。 截至 2025Q1，公司拥有门店 16,622 家（含加盟店 6,239 家），净增门 店 69 家。2025Q1，公司华南/华中/华东/东北华北西南和西北地区收入 分别为 43.03/6.76/5.47/12.20 亿元，同比增速分别为 -0.94%/8.31%/5.16%/10.70%，可以看出公司华南以外市场增长较强势。 公司持续推进 ...

2025Q1 利润稳健，门店优化推动长期发展 [Table_StockName] ——大参林（603233）点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] [Table_Summary] 事件: 4 月 26 日，公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报。2024 年，公司实 现总营业收入 264.97 亿元（+8.01%）；实现归母净利润 9.15 亿元（- 21.58%）。2025Q1，公司实现总营业收入 69.56 亿元（+3.02%）；实现归 母净利润 4.60 亿元（+15.45%）。 深耕华南，积极实施省外扩张战略 公司持续新开门店、并购和新拓展加盟等方式，继续下沉已布局区域的 二、三级市场，同步开拓重要区域的新市场，保持零售业务规模优势。 截至 2025Q1，公司拥有门店 16,622 家（含加盟店 6,239 家），净增门 店 69 家。2025Q1，公司华南/华中/华东/东北华北西南和西北地区收入 分别为 43.03/6.76/5.47/12.20 亿元，同比增速分别为 -0.94%/8.31%/5.16%/10.70%，可以看出公司华南以外市场增长较强势。 公司持续推进强势区域的加 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in plasma collection, with a total of 630.6 tons collected in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [2] - The company has a diverse product line with 11 varieties and 31 specifications, including human immunoglobulin and coagulation factors [2] - The revenue from blood products in 2024 was 15.14 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.86% year-on-year, despite a competitive market leading to price declines [2][3] - The company is expanding its research pipeline and has received regulatory approvals for products aimed at international markets, including a registration certificate for immunoglobulin in Pakistan [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 17.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.58%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.97 billion yuan, an increase of 67.18% [1] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 5.36 billion yuan, up 19.49%, but net profit decreased by 8.25% to 1.39 billion yuan [1] Product and Market Development - The company has 20 operational plasma collection stations and one under construction, totaling 21 stations [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and enhancing production processes to drive revenue growth in blood products [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the company in 2024 was 64.65%, an increase of 11.90 percentage points compared to the previous year, but it decreased to 53.80% in Q1 2025 [3] - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.20 billion yuan, 5.98 billion yuan, and 6.54 billion yuan, respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The real estate market in China still has significant growth potential, with recent supportive monetary policies expected to boost housing demand and stabilize the market [1][4]. - The recent reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates is anticipated to further lower commercial loan rates, thereby reducing home purchase costs and enhancing market attractiveness [3][4]. - Continuous monetary policy support is expected to maintain a stable environment for the real estate sector, with further optimization of policies likely to accelerate [1][7]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates, which will open up further room for commercial loan rate reductions [3]. - A comprehensive monetary policy package, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, enhancing liquidity and market confidence [4]. Market Dynamics - The first quarter of this year saw an increase of over 750 billion yuan in real estate loan balances, with personal housing loans experiencing the largest quarterly increase since 2022 [7]. - The approval amount for "white list" loans in the real estate sector has risen to 6.7 trillion yuan, indicating strong financial support for the industry [7]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality state-owned enterprises benefiting from supply-side reforms, stocks related to land acquisition policies, and companies expected to rebound as the market stabilizes [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with expectations of a relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [4][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.735 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 34.58% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 397 million yuan, an increase of 67.18% [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 536 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.49%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.25% to 139 million yuan [1][2]. - The company has a stable growth in plasma collection, with a total collection of 630.6 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [2]. - The company has 11 product varieties and 31 specifications, including imported recombinant factor VIII, and operates 20 plasma stations with one under construction [2]. - The revenue from blood products in 2024 was 1.514 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.86% year-on-year, despite a competitive market leading to a decline in product gross margins [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 1.971 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 13.62%, and further to 2.242 billion yuan in 2026 [3][10]. - The net profit is expected to reach 519 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 30.86%, and 597 million yuan in 2026 [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.03 yuan in 2025 and 1.18 yuan in 2026 [3][10]. Research and Development - The company is expanding its research pipeline with a focus on both long-term and short-term strategies, including the approval of drug registration certificates for certain products expected to launch in 2025 [3]. - The company has received drug registration approval for its immunoglobulin product in Pakistan, which is anticipated to enhance overseas revenue [3]. Market Position - The company is experiencing pressure on gross margins due to rising costs and increased competition in the blood products sector, with gross margins reported at 64.65% in 2024 [3][9]. - The company’s sales, management, and financial expense ratios were 33.47% in 2024, indicating an increase in operational costs [9].