固本强基，融合天地 [Table_ReportType] ——2025 年通信行业投资策略报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 回顾 2024 年，申万通信行业指数 2024 年大幅跑赢沪深 300 和创业板 指，在申万 31 个一级行业中位列第三，表现较优。估值方面，通信行 业 2024 年末估值水平较年初略有提升，且略高于历史 3 年均值水平， 但仍然处于合理区间。展望 2025 年，通信行业 5G 基础设施建设有序 推进，目前 5G 已经形成规模化应用，但应用的广度、深度还需要进一 步加强。把握 AI 算力产业链和天地一体化的双核心主线投资机遇。 算力即国力，我们认为通信行业 2025 年第一个核心投资主线仍然会 聚焦在 AI 算力产业链，围绕 AI 算力产业链寻找技术进步叠加需求提 升带来的投资机遇，包括智算中心、液冷、服务器、光模块、光芯片 等细分领域。此外，伴随我国卫星陆续的成功发射，以及多项支持性 政策的出台，天地一体化领域有望成为通信行业 2025 年的另一核心 投资主线，寻找政策支持叠加产业进程提速带来的投资机遇，包括低 空经济、北斗导航、 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 07 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周一 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.14%，深成指收 跌 0.12%，创业板指收跌 0.09%。沪深两市成交额 10584.79 亿元。申 万行业方面，医药生物、钢铁、银行领涨，商贸零售、食品饮料、社 会服务领跌；概念板块方面，流感、禽流感、仿制药一致性评价涨幅 居前，社区团购、AI 眼镜、智能音箱跌幅居前。 港股方面，恒生指 数收跌 0.36%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.18%；海外方面，美国三大指数 涨跌不一，道指收跌 0.06%，标普 500 收涨 0.55%，纳指收涨 1.24%。 【重要新闻】 【央行明确释放稳汇率信号】接近央行人士称，由于近期海外投资者 对高等级人民币债券需求较为旺盛，央行拟于 1 月在香港新增发行离 岸人民币央行票据，预计发行规模会远超过去单次最大发行规模。中 国《金融时报》也连发两篇文章指出，央行有充足的工具箱、丰富的 经验应对人民币汇率贬值，有能力保持人民币汇率 ...

市 场 研 究 别与 8 家外资机构代表深入交流】座谈会上，与会外资机构积极评价 中国政府推进经济持续稳定发展的政策措施和坚定决心，一致认为 2024 年 9 月 26 日中央政治局会议及中央经济工作会议以来，存量政 策持续发力、增量政策陆续推出，有力稳定社会预期，国际投资者信 心得到提振。 研报精选 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 06 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 1.57%，深成指 收跌 1.89%，创业板指收跌 2.16%。沪深两市成交额 12675.97 亿元。 申万行业方面，有色金属、煤炭、石油石化领涨，商贸零售、计算机、 社会服务领跌；概念板块方面，青蒿素、仿制药一致性评价、可燃冰 涨幅居前，快手概念、MLOps 概念、社区团购跌幅居前。港股方面， 恒生指数收涨 0.7%，恒生科技指数收涨 1.05%；海外方面，美国三大 指数集体收涨，道指收涨 0.8%，标普 500 收涨 1.26%，纳指收涨 1.77%。 【重要新闻】 【 ...

证券研究报告|传媒 元旦档创造良好开局，影片后续稳定力充足 [Table_ReportType] ——传媒行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] ⚫ 元旦档票房超 3 亿元，创造良好开局。元旦档相较于国庆档、春 节档等大型档期来说，时间较短，影响力较弱，但是作为新年的 开端，仍是备受市场关注的重点档期，氛围契合的中小体量电影 在其中挑起大梁。根据灯塔数据，2025 年元旦档期（一月一日） 收获票房 3.06 亿元，同比去年元旦当天票房微幅下滑 7.77%。从 跨年表现来看，元旦前夕（十二月三十一日）收获票房 3.84 亿元， 日均票房均超过 3 亿元，总票房共计 6.90 亿元，这一跨越新旧的 档期为今年电影市场创造了良好开局。 ⚫ 元旦假期未调休，观影热情受影响。从细分数据来看，观影总场 次 47.89 万场，同比上涨 4.68%；观影总人次 745.82 万，同比下 滑 7.54%；平均票价保持平稳，为 41 元。综合来看，票房微幅下 滑的主要原因还是在于此次元旦假期位于星期三，并未调休和周 末连接形成档期效应，观众观影热情有所影响，观影人次有所下 降 ...

[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 03 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|------------------------|--------| | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 | \n指数名称 收盘 涨跌幅 | % | | 上证指数 | 3,262.56 | -2.66% | | 深证成指 | 10,088.06 | -3.14% | | 沪深 300 | 3,820.40 | -2.91% | | 科创 50 | 955.33 | -3.40% | | 创业板指 | 2,060.44 | -3.79% | | 上证 50 | 2,610.34 | -2.77% | | 上证 180 | 8,387.67 | -2.94% | | 上证基金 | 6,655.04 | -2.47% | | 国债指数 | | | 223.13 0.23% 【市场回顾】 周四 ...

[Table_RightTitle] 策略研究|策略月报 [Table_Authors] 分析师: 宫慧菁 执业证书编号： S0270524010001 电话： 020-32255208 邮箱： gonghj@wlzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 政策持续释放利好 [Table_ReportType] ——2024 年 12 月策略月报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 02 日 [投资要点： Table_Summary] ⚫ 12 月 A 股主要股指涨跌互现：截至 12 月 25 日收盘，上证 综指收报 3,393.35 点，较 11 月末上涨 2.01%。分结构看， 本月 A 股主要股指表现不一。其中，上证 50 涨幅较大，达 3.25%，沪深 300 涨超 1.5%，创业板指跌 1.02%。 ⚫ 市场流动性有所转弱：总体看，12 月 A 股限售解禁规模环 比有所回落，重要股东净减持 A 股，新成立的偏股型基金 份额环比减少。市场流动性边际走弱。 ⚫ 投资者情绪波动，交投热度有所回落：12 月 A 股投资者风 险偏好波动走弱，交投热度环比降温。TMT 板块在成长板 ...

Core Insights - The energy storage industry is experiencing continuous improvement in fundamentals since 2024, with significant growth in large-scale storage projects and increasing economic viability of independent storage stations and commercial storage projects [13][19][20] Market Overview - On January 2, 2025, the A-share market saw all three major indices decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.63% to 3,351.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.40% to 10,414.61 points, and the ChiNext Index down 2.93% to 2,141.60 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1,345.55 billion RMB, with net purchases of 6.441 billion HKD from southbound funds [3][9][10] Industry Analysis - In China, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage reached 58.52 GW/128 GWh by the end of September 2024, an increase of approximately 86% compared to the end of 2023. The bidding data for energy storage projects in 2024 showed a total scale of 53.11 GW/139.43 GWh, representing year-on-year growth of 55.61% and 52.75% respectively [19][20] - The U.S. energy storage market is witnessing strong growth, with new installed capacity reaching 8.35 GW/24.96 GWh in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 83.43% and 82.11%. The grid-side storage capacity is expected to continue its explosive growth [20] - In Europe, large-scale storage is expected to take over from household storage, with predictions of 22.4 GWh of new installed capacity in 2024, a 30.23% increase from 2023. Large-scale storage is projected to contribute 11 GWh of this capacity [20] Future Outlook - The energy storage industry is expected to continue improving in 2025, driven by dual growth trends in domestic and overseas markets. Large-scale storage is anticipated to see a high degree of certainty in growth, while household storage is expected to stabilize and contribute to new increments [13][20] - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to see significant growth in large-scale storage due to energy consumption structures and renewable energy targets set for 2030 [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the energy storage industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [69]. Core Insights - The energy storage industry is experiencing continuous improvement in fundamentals, with significant growth in both domestic and international markets. The report highlights the strong performance of large-scale storage projects and the increasing competitiveness of Chinese companies in the global market [63][66]. Market Review - The global energy storage market is thriving, with Chinese companies enhancing their competitiveness. In 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage in China reached 58.52 GW/128 GWh, representing an approximate 86% increase compared to the end of 2023 [66][68]. - The bidding data for energy storage projects in China shows a significant increase, with 817 projects completed from January to November 2024, totaling 53.11 GW/139.43 GWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 55.61% and 52.75% respectively [66]. Domestic Trends - Independent energy storage systems are becoming more economically viable, and commercial energy storage is expected to gain momentum. The report notes that the profitability of independent storage stations is improving, with utilization rates significantly higher than those of renewable energy paired storage [67][35]. - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of energy storage installations in the East China region, with over 9 GW added this year, particularly in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang provinces [18]. Supply Side - The industry is facing intensified competition, leading to a decline in project prices. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped from 500,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of 2023 to around 78,800 CNY/ton as of December 2024, a decrease of 41.67% year-on-year [16]. Overseas Trends - In the United States, large-scale storage projects are showing strong growth, with an installed capacity of 8.35 GW/24.96 GWh added in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 83.43% and 82.11% respectively [48][68]. - The report indicates that the European market is expected to see an increase in large-scale storage installations, with projections suggesting that large storage will become the main growth driver in the region [72]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that will benefit from the growth of large-scale storage installations in the U.S., Middle East, and Europe, as well as those that can capitalize on the recovery of household storage demand in emerging markets [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail industry as of December 30, 2024 [7]. Core Insights - The consumer sector is still in a recovery phase, with a focus on rational spending. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales from January to November 2024 is +3.5%, a slowdown of 3.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023. Retail sales of gold and jewelry and cosmetics have decreased by -3.3% and -1.3% respectively [13][17]. - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a top priority, aiming to stimulate consumption through various measures, including increasing residents' income and creating new consumption growth points [18][19]. - The report highlights the rise of domestic brands in the cosmetics sector, with significant growth in sales during promotional events like "Double 11," where overall sales increased by +26.6% [7][56]. Summary by Sections Industry Review and Outlook - The overall economy is expected to maintain steady growth, with a year-on-year increase in per capita disposable income of +4.9% in Q3 2024. However, the social retail sales growth has slowed down due to insufficient domestic demand [13][17]. - The government aims to stimulate consumption by enhancing income for low- and middle-income groups and implementing policies to support new consumption growth points, particularly in smart home products, cultural tourism, and domestic brands [18][19]. Cosmetics Sector - The cosmetics market is experiencing fluctuations, but there is potential for future demand recovery. The cumulative retail sales of cosmetics from January to November 2024 show a year-on-year increase of +1.3% [7][56]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with younger consumers showing a higher acceptance of these products. The report suggests focusing on leading domestic cosmetic companies with strong R&D and marketing capabilities [7][56]. Gold and Jewelry Sector - The rapid increase in gold prices has suppressed consumer demand for gold jewelry, leading to a slowdown in store expansion among leading companies. The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product design and operational capabilities, as well as those offering high dividends [7][52]. - The report notes that the performance of leading gold and jewelry companies has varied, with some achieving positive growth while others face challenges due to rising gold prices [52].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the social services industry, indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the broader market by more than 10% over the next six months [197] Core Views - The social services industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic tourism, with key holiday periods in 2024 showing tourism revenues surpassing 2019 levels [196] - The hotel industry is experiencing a trend of consolidation, with star-rated hotels decreasing by 27% since early 2019, while chain hotels have expanded, increasing the industry's chain rate to 40.95% in 2023 [3][4] - The catering industry is rapidly expanding its chain operations, with the number of chain catering outlets reaching 64,693 in 2023, a 35.82% increase from the previous year, and total revenue growing by 38.85% to 323.9 billion RMB [6] Industry Trends Tourism - Domestic tourism has shown robust recovery, with the 2024 National Day holiday seeing 765 million domestic trips, a 5.9% increase year-on-year, and total tourism spending reaching 700.817 billion RMB, up 6.3% from the previous year [129] - Inbound tourism is benefiting from visa facilitation policies, with 17.446 million foreign visitors entering China under visa-free policies in the first 11 months of 2024, a 123.3% increase year-on-year [17] Hotels - The hotel industry is seeing a recovery in leisure travel demand, with domestic tourism trips reaching 4.237 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a 15.32% increase year-on-year, and tourism revenue growing by 17.89% to 4.35 trillion RMB [199] - Major hotel chains like Home Inns and Jinjiang have seen revenue per available room (RevPAR) recover to 2019 levels by Q3 2024, driven by a 10% increase in average daily rates, though occupancy rates have not fully recovered [29] Catering - The chain catering market is growing rapidly, with the chain rate increasing from 12% in 2018 to 21% in 2023, indicating significant penetration and market share growth for chain brands [6] - Catering brands are increasingly expanding overseas, with notable examples like Haidilao, which has grown its overseas revenue from $230 million in 2020 to $690 million in 2023, representing a 45.81% CAGR [141] Ice and Snow Tourism - The ice and snow tourism industry is booming, with the market size growing from 270 billion RMB in 2015 to 890 billion RMB in 2023, and is expected to surpass 1 trillion RMB by 2025 [119] - Key players in the ice and snow tourism sector, such as Changbai Mountain and Dalian Sun Asia, have reported strong revenue growth in 2024, with increases of 19.55% and 7.74% respectively [131]