市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 15 日 星期四 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周三 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.86%，深成指收 涨 0.64%，创业板指收涨 1.01%。沪深两市成交额 13165.99 亿元；申 万行业方面，非银金融、交通运输、食品饮料领涨，国防军工、美容 护理、机械设备领跌；概念板块方面，中韩自贸区、航运概念、自由 贸易港概念涨幅居前，HJT 电池、BC 电池、TOPCON 电池概念跌幅居 前；港股方面，恒生指数收涨 2.3%，恒生科技指数收涨 2.13%；海外 方面，美国三大指数涨跌不一，道指收跌 0.64%，标普 500 收涨 0.72%， 纳指收涨 0.72%。 【重要新闻】 【美国调整对华加征关税】于美东时间 5 月 14 日凌晨 0 时 01 分，美 国撤销对中国商品加征的共计 91%的关税，调整实施 34%的对等关税 措施，其中 24%的关税暂停加征 90 天，保留剩余 10%的关税。同时， 美方还将对中国小额包裹的国际邮件从价税率 ...

Investment Rating - The cosmetics industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [3] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the cosmetics industry has been relatively weak due to internal and external factors, but some companies have achieved impressive revenue and net profit growth through strong product capabilities and flexible marketing strategies. With the gradual economic recovery and the introduction of consumption-boosting policies, further demand recovery is expected in the second half of the year. In the medium to long term, some domestic beauty brands are enhancing R&D investment and standing out due to their outstanding product capabilities amid the rise of domestic trends. Additionally, stricter industry regulations are favorable for compliant leading enterprises. It is recommended to focus on domestic cosmetics leaders with strong R&D, product strength, and marketing capabilities [1][2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January 1, 2025, to May 6, 2025, the cosmetics sector rose by 29.07%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 32.28 percentage points. The brand segment increased by 31.08%, while the raw materials segment faced a decline of 20.37% [10][13] - Individual stock performance highlights include Bawei Co. leading the OEM segment, Ruoyuchen leading the operation segment, and Jinbo Biological, Marubi, and Shanghai Jahwa leading the brand segment [13][14] Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit: The raw materials segment faced pressure, while some leading companies in the OEM and brand segments showed impressive performance. For instance, Bawei Co. reported a revenue increase of 48.27% and a net profit increase of 10.28% in 2024 [16][17] - Gross and net profit margins: Most beauty companies saw an increase in gross margins in Q1 2025. Qing Song Co. improved its profitability due to continuous innovation in cosmetic raw materials and product formula optimization [20][21] - Inventory turnover and operating capital turnover: Bawei Co. had the highest inventory turnover rate in the cosmetics sector at 6.93 times, while the operating capital turnover rate for the brand segment was also generally above 1 [23] Valuation Situation - The valuation levels of individual stocks are varied. In 2025, the PE ratios for leading companies like Lafang and Ruoyuchen are relatively high at 64 and 49 times, respectively, while companies like Kesi and Fulejia have lower PE ratios of 17 and 18 times [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.17% while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.13% and 0.12% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1,291.365 billion yuan [2][7] - The banking, beauty care, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, while the defense, computer, and machinery sectors experienced declines [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.87%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 3.26%, indicating a challenging environment for Hong Kong stocks [2][7] - In the U.S., the Dow Jones decreased by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 0.72% and 1.61% respectively, reflecting a mixed sentiment in the overseas markets [2][7] Industry Analysis - The electric power equipment sector saw a decrease in the total market value held by public funds, amounting to 276.574 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decline of 14.21% quarter-on-quarter but a slight increase of 3.05% year-on-year [9][10] - The sector's overweight ratio fell to 3.29%, down 1.60 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a reduced preference among funds for this sector [9][10] - The top five and ten holdings in the electric power equipment sector showed an increase in concentration, with the CR5 and CR10 ratios rising to 68.70% and 75.59% respectively, while the CR20 ratio decreased [10][11] - The battery and photovoltaic equipment segments faced significant reductions in holdings, while the wind power equipment sector saw increased interest due to accelerated project implementations [11][12] Social Services Sector - The social services sector reported a total revenue of 190.795 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.95%, but the net profit dropped by 31.26% to 7.366 billion yuan [13][14] - The tourism and scenic area segment achieved a revenue of 35.423 billion yuan, up 15.24% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 7.19% [13][14] - The hotel and catering segment, however, experienced a revenue decline of 1.49% to 29.853 billion yuan, with net profit falling by 19.73% [14][15] - The report suggests that the implementation of vacation policies and the expansion of the inbound consumption market will continue to drive growth in the tourism and related sectors [14][15]

营收增长利润承压，旅游景区业绩稳健 [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业 2024 年业绩综述报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 社会服务板块全年业绩增收不增利。2024 年上市公司业绩出炉，社会 服务板块增收不增利，营业收入合计 1907.95 亿元，同比增长 6.95%， 在申万一级行业中排名第 3；归母净利润合计 73.66 亿元，同比下降 31.26%，在申万一级行业中排名第 22。 旅游及景区板块：2024 年旅游及景区板块实现营收 354.23 亿元，同比 +15.24%，归母净利润 16.73 亿元，同比+7.19%。五一黄金周居民旅游 热情高涨，旅游市场持续回暖。调休工作日的减少使得更多游客选择拼 假开启早鸟游或节末错峰游，推动长线游目的地表现亮眼，各地创新和 丰富消费场景，以多元供给激发消费潜力、市场活力，为游客带来深度 体验。 3288 酒店餐饮板块：2024 年酒店餐饮板块实现营收 298.53 亿元，同比- 1.49%，归母净利润 15.67 亿元，同比-19.73%。消费承压导致板块业绩 出现波动，全年表现不佳。行业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market" with expectations of a relative increase in index performance over the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The total market value of public funds heavily invested in the SW power equipment industry decreased by 14.21% quarter-on-quarter to 276.57 billion yuan in Q1 2025, while showing a slight year-on-year increase of 3.05% [1][15]. - The overweight ratio for the industry has declined to 3.29%, down 1.60 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.21 percentage points year-on-year [1][15]. - The SW power equipment industry ranks third among 31 Shenwan primary industries in terms of fund holding market value, following electronics and food and beverage [2][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The SW power equipment industry saw a quarter-on-quarter decrease in fund holding market value, with a total of 276.57 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 14.21% decline [1][15]. - The industry’s overweight ratio is 3.29%, which is a decrease from previous quarters [1][15]. Subsector Analysis - The battery, photovoltaic equipment, and grid equipment sectors experienced a decline in fund holding values, while the wind power and motor sectors saw significant increases, with wind power holdings rising by 54.76% and motor holdings by 100.88% [21][22]. - The total market value for the wind power sector reached 89.75 billion yuan, while the motor sector reached 34.25 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [21][22]. Stock Trends - The top ten stocks in the SW power equipment industry include CATL, Sungrow, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, with varied performance; stocks like Keda and Deye saw significant gains, while JA Solar and Tongwei experienced notable declines [3][30]. - The top ten stocks that saw increased holdings include Zhenyu Technology and Longi Green Energy, while major reductions were observed in stocks like CATL and Sungrow [33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading stocks in the lithium battery sector due to stable growth in new energy vehicle production, as well as on wind power equipment stocks supported by government initiatives [36]. - Emerging technologies such as AI and solid-state battery advancements are expected to drive demand in related sectors, presenting potential investment opportunities [36].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.63%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,308.276 billion yuan. The leading sectors included defense and military, electric equipment, and machinery, while agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and public utilities lagged behind [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.98%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 5.16%. In overseas markets, the three major US indices also rose, with the Dow Jones up 2.81%, the S&P 500 up 3.26%, and the Nasdaq up 4.35% [2][7] Important News - The joint statement from the high-level China-US economic and trade talks indicated that both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar cancellation. Both sides will establish mechanisms for ongoing consultations regarding economic and trade relations [8] - According to the China Automobile Industry Association, in April, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.619 million and 2.59 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 8.9% and 9.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.251 million and 1.226 million units, with year-on-year growth of 43.8% and 44.2% [3][8] Industry Analysis - The SW Electronics industry is projected to achieve operating revenue of 3,329.907 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.90%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 15.47%, a slight decline of 0.31 percentage points, primarily due to raw material cost pressures. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 129.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.07%, indicating improved profitability [9] - In Q1 2025, the SW Electronics industry is expected to achieve revenue of 823.831 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.98%, and a net profit of 34.263 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.58% [9] - The semiconductor sector is anticipated to recover in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing this upward trend. The integrated circuit manufacturing and analog chip design sub-sectors are expected to return to profitability, driven by terminal recovery, AI computing power construction, and self-control demand [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market, indicating an expected increase in the industry index relative to the broader market by over 10% in the next six months [4][50]. Core Insights - In 2024, the SW electronics industry is projected to achieve operating revenue of CNY 3,329.907 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.90%. The gross margin is expected to be 15.47%, a slight decline of 0.31 percentage points, primarily due to raw material cost pressures. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be CNY 129.296 billion, a significant increase of 43.07% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1][13]. - For Q1 2025, the industry is expected to generate revenue of CNY 823.831 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.98%, with a net profit of CNY 34.263 billion, up 29.58% year-on-year, marking the highest growth in nearly three years for Q1 [1][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The SW electronics industry is experiencing a recovery in performance, with 2024 showing a significant improvement in revenue and net profit. The overall expense ratio has decreased, indicating better cost control [1][13]. - Q1 2025 marks a new high for both revenue and net profit, with double-digit year-on-year growth [1][19]. 2. Subsector Analysis - **Semiconductors**: The sector is expected to see a recovery in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing this trend. Key subsectors like integrated circuit manufacturing and analog chip design have returned to profitability, driven by demand from terminal recovery and AI computing [2][20]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Performance is mixed, with revenue growth outpacing profit growth due to raw material cost pressures. New product launches and promotional events are expected to boost demand [2][24]. - **Optoelectronics**: The panel sector has turned profitable due to improved supply dynamics, while the optical components sector continues to grow, reflecting overall recovery [2][29]. - **Components**: The sector benefits from the high demand in the AI computing supply chain, with significant growth in revenue and profit expected [3][34]. - **Electronic Chemicals**: Steady revenue growth is anticipated, with improved profitability in Q1 2025 due to the semiconductor industry's recovery [3][40]. - **Other Electronics**: This sector shows revenue growth, but profit growth lags behind, indicating potential cost pressures [3][46]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The SW electronics industry is expected to achieve overall year-on-year growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with varying performance across subsectors. Key areas to watch include digital chip design, advanced packaging, and PCB sectors, which are showing signs of improved profitability [3][46].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market, indicating a potential increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [4][50]. Core Insights - In 2024, the SW electronics industry is expected to achieve a revenue of CNY 3,329.907 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.90%. The gross margin is projected to be 15.47%, a slight decline of 0.31 percentage points, primarily due to raw material cost pressures. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be CNY 129.296 billion, a significant increase of 43.07% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1][13]. - In Q1 2025, the industry is anticipated to generate revenue of CNY 823.831 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.98%, and a net profit of CNY 34.263 billion, reflecting a 29.58% increase year-on-year, marking the highest growth in nearly three years for Q1 [1][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The SW electronics industry is experiencing a recovery in performance, with 2024 showing a significant improvement in revenue and net profit. The overall expense ratio has decreased, indicating better cost control [1][13]. - Q1 2025 has set new records for revenue and net profit, both achieving double-digit year-on-year growth [1][19]. 2. Subsector Analysis - **Semiconductors**: The sector is expected to recover in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing this upward trend. Key subsectors like integrated circuit manufacturing and analog chip design have returned to profitability, driven by demand from terminal recovery and AI computing [2][20]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Performance is mixed, with revenue growth outpacing profit growth due to raw material cost pressures. New product launches and promotional events are expected to boost demand [2][24]. - **Optoelectronics**: The panel sector has returned to profitability, aided by improved supply dynamics and production strategies. All subsectors showed revenue growth in Q1 2025, reflecting overall recovery [2][29]. - **Components**: The sector benefits from the high demand in the AI computing supply chain, with significant revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025 [3][34]. - **Electronic Chemicals**: This sector has shown steady revenue growth, with improved profitability in Q1 2025 due to the overall recovery in the semiconductor industry [3][40]. - **Other Electronics**: This sector's performance has improved, but profit growth has lagged behind revenue growth due to cost pressures [3][46]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The SW electronics industry is expected to see overall growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with varying performance across subsectors. Key areas to watch include digital chip design, advanced packaging, and PCB sectors, which are showing signs of improved profitability [3][46].

Core Views - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.69%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.87. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 11,918.86 billion [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, beauty care, banking, and textile and apparel sectors led the gains, while electronics, computers, and defense industries faced declines. Concept sectors such as ST stocks, fentanyl, and sugar substitutes saw significant increases, while sectors like Sci-Tech innovation new stocks, storage chips, and DRG/DIP concepts faced declines [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.4%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.93%. In overseas markets, the Dow Jones fell by 0.29%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.07%, and the Nasdaq remained unchanged [2][7] Important News - The high-level China-U.S. economic and trade talks held in Geneva from May 10 to 11 were described as candid, in-depth, and constructive, achieving important consensus and substantial progress. Both sides agreed to establish a consultation mechanism for economic and trade discussions [3][8] - The National Bureau of Statistics released April CPI and PPI data, indicating that the CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month after a 0.4% decline in the previous month, while the year-on-year decline remained at 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year. The PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][8] Industry Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a divergence in performance since the beginning of the year, with the overall performance of various sub-sectors under pressure. Focus is on structural opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovation, overseas expansion, and self-sufficiency [9] - The pharmaceutical index has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.76 percentage points, with the pharmaceutical sub-sectors showing varied performance. The chemical preparation sub-sector has increased by 8.90%, while medical services and pharmaceutical commerce have seen increases of 2.79% and 0.41%, respectively [10] - The overall revenue and net profit of the pharmaceutical sector are expected to decline in 2024 and Q1 2025, with several sub-sectors experiencing pressure on profit margins. However, the medical research outsourcing sector showed promising growth in Q1 2025 [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to face overall revenue and net profit declines in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a focus on sub-sectors that show revenue growth, such as medical research outsourcing and hospitals. The chemical pharmaceutical sector has performed well in the secondary market, with attention on innovation-driven, domestic substitution, and policy immunity themes [13] - In the electronics sector, the SW electronics industry saw an increase in fund heavy positions in Q1 2025, with a focus on semiconductor self-sufficiency and AI computing applications. The top ten heavy stocks are primarily from the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, indicating institutional interest in self-sufficient semiconductor stocks [14][15] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in semiconductor self-sufficiency, AI computing, and AI edge applications, with a recommendation to focus on domestic semiconductor manufacturers and the growing demand for domestic computing capabilities [16]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the market index in the next six months [5][39]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the SW Electronics industry saw an increase in fund heavy positions, with a heavy position ratio of 17.03%, up by 0.10 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 4.95 percentage points year-on-year [1][13]. - The top ten heavy stocks are predominantly in the semiconductor sector, indicating a strong institutional focus on self-controllable semiconductor companies [2][17]. - The semiconductor sector's overweight ratio has been rising for three consecutive quarters, reaching 7.83% [3][29]. Summary by Sections Fund Heavy Positions and Overweight Ratios - The SW Electronics industry had a matching ratio of 9.09% in Q1 2025, which is at a historically high level, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.24 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.70 percentage points [1][13]. - The overweight ratio for the SW Electronics industry in Q1 2025 was 7.94%, showing a slight decrease of 0.15 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 3.25 percentage points year-on-year [1][13]. Top Heavy Stocks - The top ten heavy stocks in Q1 2025 are all from the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, with semiconductor stocks making up 90% of the list, highlighting the focus on self-controllable semiconductor companies [2][17]. - The top ten heavy stocks include SMIC, Cambricon, and others, with significant price movements, such as Chipone's stock increasing by 102.17% [2][17]. Institutional Focus Areas - Institutions are particularly focused on self-controllable semiconductors, AI computing power, and edge applications, with the top ten stocks showing a strong presence in these areas [2][22]. - The top ten stocks that saw increased holdings include Chipone, Lattice Technology, and others, with a notable emphasis on AI computing and edge applications [22][24]. Sector Overweight Ratios - The semiconductor sector continues to be overweight, with a ratio of 24.61% when considering the SW Electronics industry as the denominator, reflecting a significant increase of 2.65 percentage points [29][31]. Diversification in Fund Holdings - The concentration of fund heavy positions has decreased, indicating a trend towards diversification, with the top five, ten, and twenty stocks accounting for 39.50%, 57.89%, and 72.46% of the total fund heavy positions, respectively [3][33].