Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][32]. Core Views - The company has achieved a new level of profitability, with total revenue for 2024 reaching 841.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.75%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 325.20 billion yuan, up 19.36% [6][14]. - The company is characterized as a high-dividend asset, with a cash dividend of 0.21 yuan per share distributed in January 2025, totaling 51.38 billion yuan, and a historical cumulative cash dividend of 188 billion yuan since its listing [7][14]. - The company’s operational performance is expected to improve significantly due to the full operation of major hydropower stations, with a projected increase in net profit for 2024-2026 [14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 1.3291 yuan for 2024, reflecting a 19.36% increase year-on-year [6]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected at 15.72%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [6]. Operational Highlights - The company’s six hydropower stations generated a total of 2,959.04 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.11% [8]. - The company’s investment income for the first three quarters of 2024 rose by 11.41% year-on-year, supported by strategic investments in the hydropower sector [13]. Market Position - The company is the largest listed hydropower company in the world, with a total installed capacity of 71.795 million kilowatts, and is recognized as a value blue-chip stock with strong and stable profitability [14]. - The company’s dividend yield over the past 12 months reached 3.66%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.67% [14].

Group 1: Lithium Battery - The lithium battery index increased by 2.15%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 1.19% [2][11] - The global market for electric vehicle power batteries is expected to reach approximately 894.4 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.2% [12] - The prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have shown slight declines, with prices at 77,600 CNY/ton and 73,900 CNY/ton respectively [12] Group 2: Chemical Industry - The CITIC basic chemical industry index rose by 1.23%, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index [3][14] - The potassium fertilizer sector is highlighted for its strong resource attributes and tightening supply-demand dynamics, which may drive prices higher [15][16] - The polyester filament industry is expected to see rapid growth in production and demand due to a recovery in the textile and apparel sector [15][16] Group 3: New Materials - The new materials index decreased by 0.11%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [4][18] - The rapid development of downstream sectors such as commercial aerospace and humanoid robots is expected to drive demand for upstream new materials [19] - Investment focus is suggested on thermal barrier coatings, rare earth permanent magnet materials, and high-temperature superconducting materials [19] Group 4: Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 1.42%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points [5][21] - Price increases for cultural paper and corrugated paper products are anticipated due to rising raw material costs [23] - The home improvement sector is expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at boosting domestic consumption [23] Group 5: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The index for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery rose by 0.98%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [6][26] - The pork market is experiencing limited price increase potential due to stable supply and lack of significant demand from downstream customers [27] - The white feather broiler market is expected to strengthen, with improved operational rates among key slaughter enterprises [28][29] Group 6: Machinery - The CS machinery index decreased by 0.07%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.26 percentage points [31] - The sales of excavators and loaders showed slight year-on-year growth, indicating a stable market [33] - Investment recommendations include traditional engineering machinery and high-speed rail equipment with stable fundamentals [33] Group 7: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry index fell by 2.87%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [8][35] - The market for polysilicon remains stable, with significant price variations among different suppliers [36] - Investment focus is suggested on leading companies in the photovoltaic materials sector, particularly those with clear capacity reduction expectations [36] Group 8: Electric Power and Utilities - The electric power and utilities index increased by 0.08%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [9][39] - The acceleration of market-oriented reforms in the electricity sector presents new development opportunities [40] - Investment recommendations include large hydropower and nuclear power enterprises with strong dividend yields [40] Group 9: Media - The media index increased by 9.87%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [9][43] - The success of animated films like "Nezha" indicates a strong supply-driven market in the film industry [44] - Investment focus is suggested on the IP industry chain, particularly in light of the growing consumer willingness to pay for quality IP derivatives [46]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with January sales reaching 1.015 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29% [5][8] - The communication industry is experiencing a transformation with the integration of AI technologies, particularly through the DeepSeek model, which is expected to enhance data-driven services and revenue growth [16][17] - The coal industry is undergoing a transition towards cleaner and smarter operations, with a focus on maintaining coal as a primary energy source in the near future [22][24] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,355.83, with a slight increase of 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.39% to 10,791.06 [3] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 14.21 and 38.49, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][11] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 30,772.79, down by 0.67%, while the Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.62% to 26,643.39 [4] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan to enhance the competitiveness of the new energy storage manufacturing industry by 2027, focusing on technologies like supercapacitors and sodium batteries [5][8] - The telecommunications sector is seeing a rise in big data business revenue, with a 69.2% year-on-year increase, driven by the adoption of the DeepSeek model [17][19] Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is rated as "stronger than the market," with a focus on high-dividend, low-valuation companies, as the industry continues to show resilience despite recent price fluctuations [24][25] - The semiconductor and AI sectors are expected to attract significant investment, with a recommendation to monitor developments in these areas closely [29][31]

锂电池 分析师：牟国洪 登记编码：S0730513030002 mough@ccnew.com 021-50586980 销量同比增长，短期适度关注 ——锂电池行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 发布日期：2025 年 02 月 17 日 锂电池相对沪深 300 指数表现 11721 资料来源：中原证券研究所，Wind 相关报告 《锂电池行业月报：销量高增长，短期适度 关注》 2025-01-14 《锂电池行业月报：销量持续高增长，板块 持续关注》 2024-12-12 《锂电池行业年度策略：业绩持续改善，关 注四条主线》 2024-12-04 联系人：李智 马嵚琦 1 月锂电池板块指数走势弱于沪深 300 指数。2025 年 1 月，锂电 池指数下跌 0.31%，新能源汽车指数上涨 3.75%，而同期沪深 300 指数下跌 0.09%，锂电池指数走势弱于沪深 300 指数。 风险提示： 行业政策执行力度不及预期；细分领域价格大幅波动；新 能源汽车销量不及 预期；行业竞争加剧；盐湖提锂进展超预期；系统风 险。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -10% -5% 1% 7% 12% 18% 23% 29% 2024.02 2024.06 2024.10 2025.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,346.72 | 0.43 | | 深证成指 | | 10,749.46 | 1.16 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,939.01 | 0.87 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,762.63 | 1.07 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,947.80 | 0.84 | | 中证 | 1000 | ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 软件医疗行业领涨 A 股小幅上扬 ——市场分析 周五 A 股市场先抑后扬、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低开后震荡回 落，盘中股指在 3323 点附近获得支撑，午后股指震荡回升，盘中软 件开发、计算机设备、通信服务以及医疗服务等行业表现较好；房 地产、商业百货、旅游酒店以及非金属材料等行业表现较弱，沪指 全天基本呈现小幅上扬的运行特征。当前上证综指与创业板指数的 平均市盈率分别为 14.15 倍、38.02 倍，处于近三年中位数平均水 平，适合中长期布局。两市周五成交金额 17452 亿元，处于近三年 日均成交量中位数区域上方。2024 年底召开的政治局会议，释放了 重要的政策信号，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，稳住楼市股市， 加强超常规逆周期调整，大力提振消费，实施更加积极的财政政策 以及实施适度宽松的货币政策。2025 年，中国经济预计将继续保持 复苏态势，GDP 增速有望达到 5%左右。消费、投资、出口等主要经 济指标将持续改善，为上市公司业绩增长提供支撑。监管层将继续 实施积极的财政政策和稳健 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives the coal industry an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [13]. Core Viewpoints - China's coal reserves rank fourth globally, accounting for 13.30% of the world's proven reserves, with significant concentration in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Shaanxi provinces [4][22]. - The coal industry is undergoing a deep transformation towards green, clean, and intelligent development, with policies aimed at promoting efficient utilization, ecological protection, and enhancing production efficiency through smart technologies [5][24]. - Coal will maintain its status as China's primary energy source for a considerable time, with consumption expected to peak in 2028, followed by a plateau period until 2037 [6][31]. - The coal sector in Henan province is crucial, with a projected production of 10.4 million tons in 2024, although its national share is declining from 5.94% in 2011 to 2.18% [7][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of China's Coal Resources - China's coal reserves are ranked fourth globally, with a total of 2,185.70 billion tons as of the end of 2023, reflecting a 5.6% increase from 2022 [20][21]. - The concentration of coal resources is high, with Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Shaanxi provinces accounting for 73.77% of the total reserves [22]. 2. Current State of the Coal Industry - The coal industry is experiencing a new upturn since 2020, with production expected to grow by 1.3% in 2024, reaching 4.76 billion tons [6][31]. - The demand for coal is supported by electricity, chemical, and construction sectors, despite rising mining and transportation costs [6]. 3. Henan Province Coal Industry - Henan is one of the 14 major coal bases in China, with significant companies like Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group [7]. - The province faces challenges such as insufficient backup resources and uneven geographical distribution, leading to a decline in coal production share [7][11]. 4. Characteristics of the Coal Sector - The coal sector is characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, with an average yield of 6.41% as of February 7, 2025 [12]. - Major coal companies exhibit stable performance and high return on equity, supported by long-term contracts to stabilize prices [12]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on large coal enterprises with high dividend yields and stable performance, as the sector presents good opportunities for low-cost entry during price adjustments [13].

Key Points - The report highlights the positive performance of the A-share market, with specific sectors such as cultural media, semiconductor, and electric power leading the gains [4][8][13] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 suggests a GDP growth rate of around 5%, supported by improvements in consumption, investment, and exports [7][14][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality content in the film industry, with the success of films like "Nezha" significantly boosting box office records [22][38] - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from advancements in AI technology, particularly with the release of models like DeepSeek-R1, which enhances performance and reduces costs [18][34][35] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,332.48, down 0.42% [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 14.20 and 38.45 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [7][14] - The cultural media sector outperformed the market, with significant contributions from blockbuster films driving audience engagement and revenue [22][38] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is experiencing a price recovery, particularly in potassium fertilizer and polyester filament sectors, driven by tightening supply and increasing demand [16][17] - The software industry is facing a slowdown, with revenue growth expected to be around 10% in 2024, down from previous years [18] - The home improvement sector is seeing a revival, supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption [26][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as cultural media, semiconductors, and electric power for short-term investment opportunities [7][14][15] - In the film industry, continued attention is recommended for high-quality content production and distribution, as it significantly impacts box office performance [22][38] - The semiconductor sector is advised for investment due to its growth potential driven by AI advancements and domestic production capabilities [34][35]

计算机 投资要点： （1）国产化：2024 年，我国集成电路在进口依赖度比例为 78% （即国产化占比 22%），较 1-11 月回落 2 PCT，下滑趋势明显 加大，表明美国一系列禁令影响在持续释放。阿斯麦对中国出口 量的快速上升，意味着未来国内芯片产量有望得到较大增长。华 为 2024 年收入重回美国制裁前的水平，研发投入增长明显。 ——计算机行业月报 分析师：唐月 登记编码：S0730512030001 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) tangyue@ccnew.com 021-50586737 发布日期：2025 年 02 月 13 日 DeepSeek-R1 带来 AI 技术突破，持续 关注 GPT-5 的推出进程 （2）AI：R1 在后训练阶段大规模使用了强化学习，来取代传统 大模型中监督式微调的方法，不需要大量的标注数据，节省了算 力，同时实现了与 o1 相媲美的性能。这意味着在 Scaling Law 失 效的困扰下，人类在增加训练数据和算力以外，探索出了高效的 架构与训练策略提升的新路径，这或将成为推动 OpenAI 的 GPT- 5 问世的一个最重要的技术突破。 资料来源：中原证 ...