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FY23业绩符合预期,项目发展保持推进
中泰国际证券· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 4.00, reflecting a potential upside of 35.2% based on a 6.0x P/E ratio for 2024 [4][14]. Core Insights - The company's FY23 performance met expectations, with total revenue increasing by 9.3% year-on-year to RMB 20.28 billion. However, net profit slightly declined by 3.7% to RMB 2.21 billion. The dividend payout ratio was raised from 36.4% to 42.0% [2][4]. - The company experienced a decline in net profit margin for its renewable energy segment, dropping from 33.6% to 29.1%, while the natural gas segment saw a slight increase in net profit margin to 6.7% [2][8]. - The company plans to accelerate wind power capacity growth, targeting an addition of 800-1,000 MW in FY24, following a 2.4% increase in cumulative wind power capacity to 5,812 MW in FY23 [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23 total revenue reached RMB 20.28 billion, with renewable energy revenue down 1.6% to RMB 6.24 billion and natural gas revenue up 15.0% to RMB 14.03 billion [2][8]. - The company’s total installed wind power capacity increased to 5,812 MW, with wind generation slightly up by 0.4% to 14,081 GWh [3][9]. - The natural gas sales volume grew by 15.9% to 4.50 billion cubic meters, with projections for FY24 and FY25 indicating further growth of 7.1% and 7.0%, respectively [4][9]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report has slightly lowered the net profit forecasts for FY24 and FY25 by 7.1% and 8.0%, respectively, with new projections of RMB 2.88 billion for FY24 and RMB 3.50 billion for FY25 [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for FY24 is adjusted to RMB 0.69, reflecting a decrease of 10.1% from previous estimates [10][11]. Shareholder Information - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 25.75 billion, with a current share price of HKD 2.96 [5][14]. - Major shareholder is Hebei Construction Investment, holding 49.17% of the shares [5].
2023年盈利超越预期,未来将稳健增长
中泰国际证券· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 11.58 [3][12]. Core Views - The company's 2023 earnings exceeded expectations, with a revenue growth of 21.2% to RMB 13.74 billion, driven by a significant recovery in demand for intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients in overseas markets, as well as a gradual recovery in the domestic market [1]. - The company expects stable revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with a projected CAGR of 6.9% from 2023 to 2026, supported by improving demand in the pharmaceutical sector, a rebound in insulin business revenue, and continued growth in the animal health business [2]. - The company has multiple diabetes drugs in its R&D pipeline, with potential approvals for liraglutide, degludec insulin, and semaglutide expected in 2024 and 2025, which could provide new revenue growth points [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue reached RMB 13.74 billion, a 21.2% increase year-on-year, slightly above expectations. The revenue from intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients grew by 44.9% and 23.7%, respectively [1]. - The gross profit margin improved from 43.8% to 46.1%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 70.9% to approximately RMB 2.70 billion, exceeding expectations by 18.8% [1][8]. Revenue Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly raised by 0.05% and 2.5%, respectively, with expected revenues of RMB 15.10 billion and RMB 15.94 billion [2][9]. - The insulin business, which saw a 4.9% decline in 2023, is expected to recover starting in 2024, with a projected CAGR of 11.4% from 2023 to 2026 [2]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 11.58 based on a 7.0x 2024E PER valuation, reflecting an increase in net profit estimates for 2024 and 2025 by 21.2% and 23.0%, respectively [3][10].
盈利能力稳健,但派息低于预期
中泰国际证券· 2024-04-09 16:00
增持: 基于股价的潜在投资收益介于 10%以上 至 20% 之间 香港股市 | 教育行业 | 高等教育 降本增效效果显著,净利润提升 26.0% 预计 FY24E 资本开支 1.7 亿 下调毛利率,目标价调整至 4.45 港元 投资风险 图表 1:建桥教育 – 主要财务数据(人民币百万元) 请阅读最后一页的重要声明 页码: 1 / 5 评级:买入 股票资料 股价走势图 来源:彭博、中泰国际研究部 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 10/23 11/23 12/23 1/24 2/24 3/24 (港元) (百万股) 成交量(右轴) 股价 恒生指数 20230404 – 更新报告:稳健内生增长;加强产教融 合 20230830 – 更新报告:毛利率创新高,盈利能力提 升 建桥教育(1525 HK) | 2024 年 4 月 10 日 建桥教育(1525 HK) | 2024 年 4 月 10 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------|----------|------ ...
FY23铀矿业务持续增长
中泰国际证券· 2024-03-28 16:00
中广核矿业(1164 HK) | 2024年3月25日 香港股市 | 新能源 | 核燃料 公司点评 中广核矿业(1164 HK) 未评级 FY23 铀矿业务持续增长 股票数据(更新至2024年3月22日) 2023年盈利逊预期 现价 1.65港元 2023 年股东净利润同比下跌 3.5%至 5.0 亿元(港币,下同),低于市场预测的 5.6 亿元 10.6%,主因(一)天然铀贸易业务价差收窄导致公司毛利率由FY22 的4.1%下跌至FY23 的 总市值 12,541.13 百万 港元 1.8%,公司毛利同比下跌 10.9%至1.3 亿元;(二)财务开支同比上涨113.1%至 1.3 亿元; 流通股比例 27.78% (三)去年联营公司奥公司就 2018-20 年期间违规开采铀矿向哈萨克斯坦政府支付 2.0 亿元 已发行总股本 7,600.68百万 罚款。因违规发生在2021年中广核矿业参股前,奥公司应转回应占款项但尚未进行。 52周价格区间 0.78-2.12港元 天然铀矿主业仍表现亮丽 3个月日均成交额 63.53百万 港元 2023 年公司天然铀矿主业 (合营及联营企业运营)仍表现亮丽。铀矿总产量(tU) ...
创新药将引领收入稳健增长
中泰国际证券· 2024-03-27 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price raised to HKD 17.90, indicating a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 15.48 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue increase of 7.7% year-on-year in 2023, reaching RMB 10.14 billion. Excluding milestone revenues, pharmaceutical product sales grew by 1.1% to RMB 9.40 billion, with innovative drug sales surging by 37.1% to RMB 6.87 billion, now constituting 67.9% of total revenue [2][3]. - The management anticipates steady revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with a projected CAGR of 12.3%. Key drivers include strong sales growth of the oncology drug Amelotex and the hepatitis B drug Hengmu, both showing robust demand despite a challenging industry environment [3][4]. - The company is expected to receive a USD 185 million upfront payment for ADC drug HS-20093 from GSK in 2024, along with potential milestone payments based on development progress [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a gross profit increase of 6.5% to RMB 9.07 billion in 2023, with a reduction in sales expense ratio from 37.8% to 34.9%. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 26.9% to RMB 3.28 billion, exceeding expectations [2][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly adjusted upwards by 0.04% and 0.1%, respectively, reflecting the positive performance in 2023 [3][4]. - The financial outlook includes projected revenues of RMB 9.38 billion, RMB 10.10 billion, RMB 12.05 billion, RMB 13.66 billion, and RMB 14.29 billion for the years 2024E to 2026E, with corresponding growth rates of 7.7%, 19.3%, 13.3%, and 4.6% [5][10].
收入结构改变,毛利率大幅提升
中泰国际证券· 2024-03-27 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$4.40, indicating a potential upside of 10.3% based on the current price of HK$3.99 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue structure has changed, leading to a significant increase in gross margin, which rose by 11.1 percentage points to 41.8% in FY23. However, total revenue decreased by 39.6% year-on-year to HK$4.98 billion, primarily due to the depreciation of the RMB and a reduction in project development [2][3]. - The company aims to maintain its capacity in FY24, which is expected to enhance future dividend payout ratios and further support gross margin improvements as construction revenue decreases [3][4]. - The sanitation business is developing rapidly, contributing to revenue diversification. In FY23, sanitation and other service revenues increased by 50.7% to HK$340 million, and the report anticipates this segment's revenue share will reach 9.0% by 2025 [4]. Financial Summary - For FY23, the company reported a net profit of HK$1.00 billion, a decline of 24.8% year-on-year, with an expected recovery to HK$1.27 billion in FY24 and HK$1.38 billion in FY25 [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY23 was HK$0.41, with projections of HK$0.52 for FY24 and HK$0.57 for FY25 [4][7]. - The company’s total revenue for FY23 was HK$4.98 billion, with forecasts of HK$4.67 billion for FY24 and HK$4.71 billion for FY25, reflecting a downward trend in revenue generation [4][7].
盈利能力显著改善;2024夯实市场推广
中泰国际证券· 2024-03-27 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 6.66 [7]. Core Insights - The company's profitability has significantly improved in FY23, with a net profit of USD 77 million, compared to a loss of USD 16 million in FY22. Revenue reached USD 590 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.4% [2]. - The gross margin increased by 17.9 percentage points to 46.9%, with a further improvement in the second half of FY23 [2]. - The company is expanding its non-Amazon sales channels, achieving a 61.2% year-on-year growth in this segment [3]. - The company maintains a leading position in the air fryer market in Spain and Norway, and its air purifier market share in the U.S. has risen to 28.6% [4]. - In FY24, the company plans to focus on content marketing through platforms like TikTok and YouTube, expecting revenue and net profit to grow by 20.2% and 25.1%, respectively [5]. Financial Summary - FY23 revenue was USD 590 million, with a growth rate of 19.4%. The forecast for FY24 revenue is USD 704 million, representing a growth rate of 20.2% [6]. - The net profit for FY23 was USD 77 million, with a forecast of USD 97 million for FY24, indicating a growth rate of 25.1% [6]. - The diluted earnings per share for FY23 was USD 0.068, projected to rise to USD 0.086 in FY24 [6]. - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 40% for FY23, with a dividend of HKD 0.1569 per share [2].
预计2024年收入将恢复双位数增长
中泰国际证券· 2024-03-25 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.00 [4][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to recover to double-digit revenue growth in 2024, following a slight revenue increase of 1.7% to RMB 31.45 billion in 2023, which was below expectations [1][4]. - The oncology segment experienced a significant revenue decline of 16.4% in 2023 due to price reductions from centralized procurement, but is projected to rebound with a CAGR of 21.0% from 2023 to 2026 [2]. - The neurology drug segment showed a robust growth of 12.1% in 2023, with expectations for continued steady growth through 2026, driven by strong demand for key products [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue was RMB 31.45 billion, slightly below the forecast by 2.0%, while the net profit decreased by 3.6% to RMB 5.87 billion [1][4]. - The gross margin declined by 1.4 percentage points due to price pressures in the oncology and vitamin segments [1]. Oncology Segment - The oncology revenue dropped significantly in 2023 but is expected to recover starting in 2024, supported by new product approvals and the resolution of pricing impacts from centralized procurement [2]. Neurology Segment - The neurology drug revenue increased by 12.1% in 2023, with further growth anticipated due to successful sales strategies and new product approvals [3]. Future Product Pipeline - The company plans to launch over 50 new products and indications in the next five years, with key products expected to gain approval in the US, which could enhance global visibility and sales [3]. Valuation Adjustments - The revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 have been adjusted downwards by 4.5% and 5.6% respectively, reflecting the company's performance in 2023 [4][9].
2023年亏损超预期,但预计收入将维持较快增长
中泰国际证券· 2024-03-21 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [2][3][15] Core Views - The company reported a larger-than-expected loss in 2023, but its main product sales revenue grew rapidly, with total revenue increasing by 36.2% year-on-year to 6.21 billion RMB [2][5] - The company is expected to maintain strong revenue growth, with a projected CAGR of 22.1% from 2023 to 2026 [2][5] - The target price has been adjusted to 46.00 HKD based on a revised DCF model [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue reached 6.21 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 5.07 billion RMB, reflecting a gross margin increase of 39.8% year-on-year [2][5] - The net loss attributable to shareholders decreased by 52.8% to 1.03 billion RMB [2][5] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-25 has been slightly raised by 0.05% and 0.3% respectively, with expected revenues of 8.31 billion RMB and 9.90 billion RMB [2][5] Product Pipeline and Growth Drivers - The main product, 达伯舒 (Daboshu), is expected to see steady growth, with sales projected to increase from approximately 2.83 billion RMB in 2023 to 4.20 billion RMB in 2025 [2][5] - Other products have also shown rapid sales growth, with their contribution to total revenue rising from 26.6% in 2021 to 50.65% in 2023 [2][5] - Several products are expected to achieve significant milestones in 2024, including new drug applications and clinical trial advancements [2][7] Adjustments and Projections - The sales and marketing expenses forecast for 2024-25 has been increased due to management's commitment to promoting new products [2][5] - The net loss forecast for 2024 has been adjusted from 230 million RMB to 620 million RMB, while the net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 550 million RMB to 180 million RMB [2][5] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a recovery path, with expectations of turning profitable by 2025 [2][5]
新股报告:荃信生物-B
中泰国际证券· 2024-03-20 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating with a score of 64 out of 100 for the company [3][31]. Core Insights - The company is the first biotech firm to go public in 2024, with cornerstone investors including Huadong Medicine, which has subscribed for $25 million (approximately HKD 196 million), representing 4.45% of the total shares post-offering [3]. - The market sentiment for the biotech sector has improved since the beginning of the year, but the company faces challenges in product promotion compared to essential drugs like oncology treatments [3]. - The company has no products on the market and primarily incurs research and administrative expenses, with R&D expenditures increasing significantly in 2023 [22][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2015 and focuses on developing biologics for autoimmune and allergic diseases, with two core products, QX002N and QX005N, currently in clinical trials [31]. Financial Performance - R&D expenses were CNY 150 million in 2021 and CNY 260 million in 2022, with a 38.7% year-on-year increase in the first nine months of 2023 [22]. - Administrative expenses also rose by 38.7% in the same period, leading to a net loss of CNY 370 million, a 90.2% increase year-on-year [22]. Market Potential - The company is expected to commercialize QX001S for moderate plaque psoriasis by Q4 2024, potentially becoming the first biosimilar of ustekinumab in China [31]. - The domestic market for psoriasis drugs grew from USD 60.42 million in 2018 to USD 143.58 million in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.2% [31]. Valuation - The company's expected market capitalization upon listing is approximately HKD 44.0-44.9 billion, which is slightly lower than comparable companies, but the valuation is justified due to the lower urgency in treating autoimmune diseases compared to oncology [34].