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联邦制药:2024上半年盈利略超预期,未来将稳健增长
中泰国际证券· 2024-09-05 02:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight revenue increase of 3.9% year-on-year to 7.176 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 16.1% to 1.49 billion RMB, slightly exceeding expectations [2]. - The formulation segment, particularly the animal health and insulin products, showed strong sales performance, with revenues increasing by 25.7% and 11.3% respectively, despite a 1.5% decline in human antibiotic sales due to centralized procurement impacts [2]. - The intermediate and active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) segments also performed well, with revenues increasing by 25.4% and 1.2% respectively, indicating robust demand outside of human antibiotics [2]. - The company expects the animal health business to maintain rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 18.6% from 2023 to 2026, while insulin revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.5% over the same period [2]. - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards by 5.4%, 4.8%, and 1.8% respectively, but raises net profit forecasts by 0.2%, 1.8%, and 4.2% for the same periods due to a decrease in sales expense ratios [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024E is projected at 14.445 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 5.1% [4]. - Net profit for 2024E is expected to reach 2.883 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 6.8% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is estimated at 1.59 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.3 [4]. Business Segments - The formulation segment's revenue is projected to be 4.883 billion RMB in 2024E, with a slight decline due to antibiotic sales [4]. - The intermediate segment is expected to generate 2.660 billion RMB in 2024E, benefiting from high demand for 6-APA [4]. - The API segment is forecasted to achieve 6.902 billion RMB in revenue for 2024E, with a stable growth outlook [4]. Valuation - The target price is set at 11.90 HKD, based on a rolling P/E of 6.5 times the 2025E earnings [3][5]. - The current market price is 9.21 HKD, indicating a potential upside of over 20% [5].
朝云集团:产品推陈出新,宠物业态高质量成长
中泰国际证券· 2024-09-05 02:10
朝云集团(6601 HK) | 2024 年 9 月 4 日 香港股市 | 消费 朝云集团 (6601 HK) 产品推陈出新,宠物业态高质量成长 2024 半年毛利率提升至 46.4%,高于预期 朝云集团(6601 HK)上半年实现总收入 12.5 亿元(人民币,下同),同比增长 10.3%。 得益于公司履带式推出爆款单品,平均单价上升,以及原材料价格下跌,公司上半年整 体毛利率提升 5.1 百分点至 46.4%,高于原先预期。费用方面,销售费用和行政费用因广 告促销和人工开支上升略有提升,费用率为32.4%,大致平稳。公司整体盈利能力提升, 上半年净利润 1.8 亿,同比提升 31.5%,净利润率上涨 2.3 百分点至 14.4%。公司半年派 息 0.059 港元,派息率维持 40% 家居护理护城河坚实;宠物品类加速拓店 公司基本盘家居护理收入保持增长趋势,其中杀虫驱蚊/家居清洁/空气护理产业收入分 别提升 12.7%/8.2%/2.4%,家居护理品类占收入 70.4%。杀虫驱蚊产品连续九年市占率第 一,以及家居清洁产品市占率保持第二,证明消费者对品牌忠诚度较高,用户粘性较 强。公司以已有拳头产品,叠加产品 ...
信达生物:上半年销售表现优异,2024~26E收入将快速增长
中泰国际证券· 2024-09-02 10:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to HKD 55.40 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong sales performance in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 46.3% to RMB 3.95 billion, driven by a 55.1% increase in pharmaceutical sales [2][3]. - Despite a significant increase in net loss by 182.1% to RMB 390 million, this was attributed to the absence of a one-time tax refund from the previous year and an increase in R&D expenses [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards, with a projected CAGR of 26.4% from 2023 to 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been slightly increased by 0.04%, with 2025 and 2026 revenue estimates raised by 4.4% and 5.9% respectively [3][6]. - The company expects a revenue CAGR of 26.4% from 2023 to 2026, driven by growth in existing and new products [3]. Product Pipeline - The core product, Dabu, continues to see increased indications, with a revenue increase of 45.6% in the first half of 2024, amounting to USD 239 million (approximately RMB 1.68 billion) [3]. - New products launched post-2020 have significantly contributed to revenue, with their share rising from 26.6% in 2021 to 58.8% in the first half of 2024 [3]. - The recently launched Dabot will contribute to revenue in the second half of the year, targeting a significant market in non-small cell lung cancer [3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach RMB 8.318 billion in 2024, RMB 10.437 billion in 2025, and RMB 12.538 billion in 2026, with respective growth rates of 34.0%, 25.5%, and 20.1% [7]. - The net loss is expected to decrease from RMB 729 million in 2024 to RMB 400 million in 2026, indicating a path towards profitability [7]. Valuation - The updated DCF model reflects an increase in the target price from HKD 51.05 to HKD 55.40, based on the upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [3][4].
VESYNC:收入略受影响;但核心能力增强
中泰国际证券· 2024-08-29 08:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Vesync with a target price of HK$6.20 [6][9]. Core Insights - Vesync's revenue for the first half of the year was US$290 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, slightly below the previous double-digit growth expectation. The non-Amazon sales channels showed strong performance, with a 46.5% year-on-year increase, accounting for 28.4% of total revenue. However, Amazon channel revenue decreased by 3.4% due to inventory destocking [2]. - The company's net profit reached approximately US$45 million, a 37.7% increase year-on-year, marking a record high for the first half of the year. The interim dividend was set at HK$0.0888 per share, with a payout ratio of 30% [2]. - North American business remained stable with a revenue of US$230 million, a 13.0% year-on-year increase, driven by more products on supermarket shelves and new TikTok retail channels. Conversely, European sales dropped by 18.6% due to weakened demand in Turkey and earthquake impacts [3]. - The main brand, Levoit, accounted for 65.1% of revenue, with air purifiers and humidifiers capturing 33.3% and 23.9% market shares in the U.S. respectively. The company plans to expand its product categories, including hair care, massage, and pet-related products [4]. - The forecast for FY24E and FY25E net profit is expected to increase by 20.5% and 15.9% respectively, with revenue projections adjusted to US$640 million for FY24E and US$740 million for FY25E [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY22 was US$490 million, with a growth rate of 8.0%. For FY23, actual revenue was US$585 million, with a growth rate of 19.4%. The forecast for FY24 is US$643 million, with a growth rate of 9.8% [5]. - Net profit for FY22 was a loss of US$16 million, while FY23 showed a profit of US$77 million. The forecast for FY24 is US$93 million, reflecting a growth rate of 20.5% [5]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for FY24 is projected at US$0.086, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.6 times [5].
翰森制药:2024年上半年业绩超预期,肿瘤药引领快速增长
中泰国际证券· 2024-08-29 08:44
Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for the company from "Hold" to "Buy" [3][4]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2024, with revenue exceeding expectations, driven primarily by the oncology drug segment, which saw a revenue increase of 75.1% year-on-year [2]. - The forecast for revenue and net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted upwards due to the strong performance in the oncology segment, with expected revenue growth from 61.6 billion RMB in 2023 to 90.8 billion RMB in 2026, representing a CAGR of 13.8% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 increased by 44.2% to approximately 6.506 billion RMB, with the core pharmaceutical sales rising by 13.8% to 5.1 billion RMB after excluding project prepayments [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 111.5% to 2.73 billion RMB, driven by a 3.0 percentage point increase in gross margin and a 3.5 percentage point decrease in the sales expense ratio [2]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been raised by 2.2%, while the forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly lowered by 4.1% and 0.1%, respectively [2]. - The net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been increased by 5.5%, 0.1%, and 4.6%, respectively, reflecting the strong growth in the oncology drug segment [2]. Target Price - The target price has been raised to 23.40 HKD, reflecting the upward adjustments in profit forecasts [3][5].
中广核矿业:低成本+保下限定价:减少铀价波动对盈利的影响
中泰国际证券· 2024-08-29 08:44
香港股市 | 新能源 | 核燃料 公司点评 中广核矿业(1164 HK) 低成本+保下限定价:减少铀价波动对盈利的影响 未评级 1H24 年股东净利润同比下跌 37.0% 公司 FY24 年中期业绩逊于市场预期。上半年股东净利润同比下跌 37.0%至 1.1 亿元(港 币,下同),主因(一)公司毛利由 1H23 的 1.9 亿元盈利转为 5,643 万元亏损,因天然铀贸 易价差转正为负;(二)所得税支出同比大幅增加 277.7%至 2.1 亿元。由于哈萨克斯坦收紧 税收优惠,公司估计未必可享用因持股联营铀矿企业奥公司(Ortalyk)而衍生分红预提税的 5%优惠税率,因此先行恢复至 15%基本税率(见图表 1)。 铀矿业务盈利大幅增加 虽然如此,上半年铀矿业务盈利同比大幅增长。合营企业谢公司(Semizbay-U)及联营公司 奥公司(Ortalyk)应占利润分别同比上升 194.6%及 481.0%至 2.1 亿元及 2.3 亿元。铀矿总产 量同比增加 5.2%至 1,334tU。销售均价同比上涨 34.5%至 78 美元(每磅计算,下同)。 足够防范铀价波动的影响 今年初现货铀价一度突破 100 美元高水平 ...
中集安瑞科:FY24中期业绩逊预期,但清洁能源板块保增长
中泰国际证券· 2024-08-27 10:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.90, down from HKD 9.20 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for the first half of 2024 decreased by 14.5% year-on-year to RMB 490 million, primarily due to a 47.1% decline in revenue from the chemical and environmental protection segment and a 25.1% increase in financial expenses [2][6]. - Despite the overall decline, the clean energy segment saw a revenue increase of 25.1% year-on-year to RMB 7.88 billion, benefiting from rising natural gas consumption and imports in China [2][6]. - New orders in the clean energy segment surged by 63.3% year-on-year to RMB 12.92 billion, with significant growth in both offshore and onshore clean energy orders [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, total revenue was RMB 11.48 billion, reflecting a 6.7% increase year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for the clean energy segment improved by 0.4 percentage points to 12.6%, while the chemical and environmental protection segment's margin fell by 7.0 percentage points to 15.7% [2][6]. - The company reported a total of RMB 16.4 billion in new orders for 1H24, a 29.5% increase year-on-year, with the clean energy segment contributing significantly to this growth [2][6]. Order Backlog - As of June 30, 2024, the company's order backlog reached RMB 29.35 billion, a 42.5% increase year-on-year, with the clean energy segment accounting for 78.1% of this backlog [2][6]. Strategic Direction - The company reiterated its goal to transform from a traditional equipment manufacturer to a comprehensive service provider for low-carbon smart energy solutions, expanding its business into upstream and downstream segments of the energy value chain [2][6].
药明生物:上半年业绩逊预期,短期内仍面对挑战
中泰国际证券· 2024-08-27 05:47
药明生物(2269 HK) | 2024 年 8 月 26 日 香港股市 | 医药 药明生物(2269 HK) 上半年业绩逊预期,短期内仍面对挑战 2024 年上半年业绩逊预期 公司 2024 年上半年收入同比增加 1.0%至 85.7 亿元(人民币,下同),其中剔除新冠项 目影响后收入同比增加 7.7%。公司股东净利润同比下降 33.9%至 15.0 亿元,反映核心业 务盈利的经调整净利润同比下跌 20.7%至 22.5 亿元,业绩逊预期,主因:1)中国国内市 场不景气,中国业务收入同比下降 20.9%至 14.2 亿元。2)公司去年同期从两项大额预付 许可交易中获得预付款贡献了约 3 亿元毛利,但今年上半年没有这种交易,外加中国工 厂产能利用率下降等原因,导致毛利率同比下降 2.8 个百分点。 预计短期内公司仍然面对挑战,下调收入与盈利预测 我们预计短期内公司仍然面对挑战,因此将 2024-26E 收入预测分别下调 2.9%、9.8%、 12.9%,股东净利润预测分别下调 14.6%、18.4%、20.8%,经调整净利润分别下调 8.9%、 18.3%、20.8%,基于:1)公司上半年新签的 61 个项目 ...
石药集团:上半年业绩逊预期,下调24-26E收入与盈利预测
中泰国际证券· 2024-08-23 02:11
石药集团(1093 HK) | 2024 年 8 月 22 日 香港股市 | 医药 石药集团(1093 HK) 上半年业绩逊预期,下调 24-26E 收入与盈利预测 二季度成药业务收入环比下降,2024 年上半年业绩逊预期 公司 2024 年上半年收入同比增加 1.3%至 162.8 亿元(人民币,下同),股东净利润同 比增加 1.7%至 32.2 亿元,业绩逊预期。分板块看,主要业务成药业务收入同比增加 4.8%,功能食品及其它产品的收入同比下跌 25.2%,原料药业务则下降 5.9%。由于疫情 后维生素 C 与抗生素需求并未显著下滑,原料药业务收入好于预期。尽管如此,由于肿 瘤药领域津优力二季度集采后降价过半后销量未能如期增长等原因,二季度成药业务 收入环比减少两成,导致上半年成药业务收入增速逊预期。咖啡因持续降价等因素导 致功能食品收入下降。除此以外,公司加大研发投入,上半年研发费用率从去年同期 的 14.3%上升至 15.6%,导致上半年盈利增速逊预期。 神经系统收入维持稳健增长,但肿瘤药仍面对挑战 公司成药业务中神经系统与肿瘤药收入总共占近六成。上半年神经系统药物收入同比 增长 15.0%,管理层表 ...
粤丰环保:FY24中期业绩逊预期,但运营收入保持增长
中泰国际证券· 2024-08-22 08:45
粤丰环保(1381 HK) | 2024 年 8 月 22 日 香港股市 | 环保 | 垃圾焚烧发电 粤丰环保(1381 HK) FY24 中期业绩逊预期,但运营收入保持增长 1H24 股东净利润同比下跌 27.1% 公司 FY24 中期业绩逊预期。上半年股东净利润同比下跌 27.1%至 4.5 亿元(港币,下同), 主因(一)公司没有录得建设服务收入,因没有工程在建;(二)智能停车业务录得一次性 5,190 万元减值亏损;(三)利息支出同比增长 8.9%至 3.5 亿元,因借款利率上升,及上半 年没有工程在建而不符合利息资本化条件;(四)税项同比上升 29.1%至 8,800 万元,因实 质税率由 10.8%上升至 19.2%,部份项目税项优惠期完结。另一方面,与去年不同,公司 今年不派发中期股息(见图表 1)。 毛利率大幅上升,但股东净利润率仅微升 由于没有工程在建,上半年公司收入同比下跌 28.5%至 21.3 亿元。但是公司运营业务维 持增长。售电量及垃圾处理量分别同比上升 4.6%及 7.6%至 278 万兆瓦时及 870 万吨。电 力销售及垃圾处理费收入分别同比上升 4.7%及 4.9%至 12. ...