策略报告 | 投资策略 策略专题 证券研究报告 牛市领涨主线之外，哪些行业值得关注？ 核心结论：牛市主线风格"强者恒强"，但周期风格后半段易有所表现。复 盘大类风格在 06-07 年以及 14-15 年牛市的整体表现，可发现在聚焦主线之 外，周期风格在大盘整固后的后半段相较大盘亦有明显超额。本轮牛市来看， 周期股也同样维持较为稳健的超额，但并未相对大盘走出一段独立行情。通 过四象限定位我们发现筛选出单季度（25Q2）的行业格局变动方向，其中有 色、化工的营收增速、ROE 环比变动较好，具备较好的基本面特征。 牛市主线风格"强者恒强"，但周期风格后半段易有所表现。复盘大类风格在 06-07 年以及 14-15 年牛市的整体表现，也可发现主线风格"强者恒强"。而 在聚焦主线之外，我们发现，周期风格在牛市前半段表现只能说稳健，而在 大盘整固后的后半段相较大盘亦有明显超额。本轮牛市来看，周期股也同样 维持较为稳健的超额，但并未相对大盘走出一段独立行情。 通过四象限定位我们发现筛选出单季度（25Q2）的行业格局变动方向，其中 有色、化工的营收增速、ROE 环比变动较好，具备较好的基本面特征。 有色板块的金属新材料、小金 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue recovery with a 62.38% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 1.875 billion yuan, primarily due to the recovery in rare earth prices and adjustments in marketing strategies [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing price recovery in rare earth products, with notable increases in prices observed in the third quarter of 2025, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which have exceeded 600,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The company possesses significant resource advantages, being the only holder of an ion-type rare earth mining license in Hunan province, which supports its mining and metallurgy operations [3]. - The company's profitability is showing signs of recovery, with gross profit reaching 251 million yuan in the first half of 2025, and a gross margin of 13.37% [4]. Summary by Sections Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.875 billion yuan, a 62.38% increase year-on-year, driven by price recovery and sales growth [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 162 million yuan, with a significant contribution from both volume and price increases [1]. Capacity and Price Trends - The company has been ramping up production capacity, with key facilities having a combined capacity of 9,400 tons [2]. - The average price for light rare earth oxide praseodymium and neodymium in the first half of 2025 was 430,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a 12.68% increase year-on-year [2]. Resource and Operational Synergies - The company has a unique position in the market with its exclusive mining rights and has completed necessary environmental assessments for its mining operations [3]. - Revenue from rare earth oxides and metals accounted for 63.51% and 35.95% of total revenue, respectively, showing substantial year-on-year growth [3]. Profitability and Financial Outlook - The gross margin is expected to improve as rare earth prices continue to rise, with a gross margin of 15.65% reported for the second quarter of 2025 [4]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 410 million yuan, 634 million yuan, and 904 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" in the copper smelting industry, driven by economic slowdown and the need for industry self-discipline to prevent vicious competition [3][4][6] - The copper smelting sector is facing significant losses, necessitating a focus on capacity optimization to improve profitability [3][22] - The report suggests that the copper industry is expected to return to profitability in the long term, with an emphasis on optimizing capacity and improving operational efficiency [3][22] Industry Overview - The "anti-involution" movement was first highlighted in a Politburo meeting on July 30, 2024, aiming to strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent harmful competition [3][5] - The copper smelting industry is currently experiencing substantial losses, with the need for a shift towards capacity optimization and the elimination of outdated production methods [3][22] - The report identifies the mismatch between copper mining and smelting capacities as a critical issue, with domestic smelting capacity expanding while raw material supply remains heavily reliant on imports [45][49] Economic Context - The report draws parallels between the current "anti-involution" movement and previous supply-side reforms, both occurring in a context of economic growth slowdown [7][9] - It highlights that both periods experienced declining GDP growth rates and prolonged periods of negative Producer Price Index (PPI) [9][10] - The current economic environment is characterized by weaker demand on the consumer side, exacerbating challenges for industries like copper smelting [10][14] Capacity Optimization Strategies - The report outlines key strategies for optimizing copper smelting capacity, including the elimination of outdated production capacity and the adoption of advanced smelting technologies [3][52] - It emphasizes the importance of constructing high-standard smelting facilities and effectively utilizing recycled resources [3][52] - The report suggests that companies with cost advantages in smelting are likely to have stronger profitability as the industry undergoes restructuring [3][22] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies with smelting cost advantages and those involved in mining and smelting integration, such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and others [3][22] - It indicates that the copper smelting industry may see a turnaround in profitability as capacity mismatches are addressed and operational efficiencies are improved [3][22] Challenges and Risks - The report notes that the copper smelting industry is currently facing significant challenges, including high production costs and a reliance on imported raw materials [3][45] - It highlights the need for the industry to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory environments to mitigate risks associated with overcapacity and competition [3][22]

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Market Overview - The report highlights a resurgence in the interest rate cut trade, with global stock indices mostly rising in August, and the A-share market surpassing 3800 points [2][24] - In August, major A-share indices experienced significant gains, with growth and cyclical styles leading the market [2] - The bond market saw long-term interest rates rise while short-term rates fell, with the long-term rate exceeding 1.8% and credit spreads slightly widening [2][24] Group 2: Fixed Income and Credit Strategy - The report discusses the categorization of "other" bonds, primarily including commercial bank bonds and PPN, with a significant portion maturing within five years [4][26] - It notes that over 90% of bonds maturing beyond five years are classified as secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds, indicating a strong correlation between trading volumes and these categories [4][26] - The report provides an overview of credit bonds with yields above 2.2%, indicating a total of 185,744 million yuan in outstanding local government bonds, with 60,791 million yuan yielding above 2.2% [6][29] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Guotai Junan (国泰海通) reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with adjusted revenue reaching 236.97 billion yuan, up 76.8% year-on-year [11][33] - The company’s brokerage, investment banking, asset management, proprietary trading, and credit businesses all showed strong growth, particularly in credit business revenue, which surged by 259.8% [11][33] - Anker Innovations (安克创新) achieved a revenue of 128.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.4%, driven by strong performance in charging and storage products [18][37] Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and cloud infrastructure investments, with major companies like Alibaba and Nvidia increasing their capital expenditures significantly [12][37] - It suggests that the ongoing trends in the AI sector, along with the push for satellite industrialization, present substantial investment opportunities [12][37] - The outlook for Guotai Junan remains positive, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating continued growth, maintaining a "buy" rating [11][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotai Junan (601211) is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that after the merger, Guotai Junan has achieved steady growth in performance, with all business lines contributing positively. The company reported adjusted revenues of 135.4 billion and 236.97 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 98.3% and 76.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 35.0 billion and 157.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 38.3% and 213.7% [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The brokerage business generated revenues of 30.8 billion and 57.3 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 95.1% and 86.3%. The average daily trading volume for stocks was 14,872 billion and 16,135 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 56.8% and 63.9% year-on-year [2]. - The investment banking segment reported revenues of 6.8 billion and 13.9 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 30.5% and 19.4%. The total underwriting scale for IPOs, refinancing, and bond underwriting reached 37.5 billion, 1,195.1 billion, and 7,336.4 billion yuan, showing significant increases of 168.9%, 1,468.5%, and 48.6% respectively [2]. - The asset management business achieved revenues of 14.1 billion and 25.8 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 40.6% and 34.2%. The non-monetary public fund management scale reached 504 billion yuan, up 39.0% year-on-year [3]. Self-Operated and Credit Business - The credit business saw revenues of 24.9 billion and 31.9 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 259.8% and 205.4%. The margin trading balance was 18,504 billion yuan at the end of June 2025, reflecting a 25.0% increase year-on-year [4]. - The self-operated business reported revenues of 53.4 billion and 93.5 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 109.0% and 89.6%. The financial asset scale reached 802.9 billion yuan, up 85.0% year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the merger has allowed Guotai Junan to share resources and complement each other's strengths, which is expected to further solidify its leading position in the industry. The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 230 billion, 214 billion, and 235 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 76.3%, -6.9%, and 9.7% [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights that in August, the A-share market surpassed 3800 points, with a significant inflow of funds and a rise in market enthusiasm [2][3][9] - The major broad-based indices in the A-share market experienced substantial gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 7.97%, the CSI 300 by 10.33%, and the ChiNext Index by 24.13% [13][14] - The report notes that the performance of various sectors was led by growth and cyclical stocks, with notable gains in the communication, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and computer sectors [13][14] Group 2 - In the bond market, long-term interest rates rose, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a peak of 1.8478% in August, reflecting a 13.4 basis point increase [27][29] - The report indicates that the credit spread slightly rebounded in August, with the highest level reaching 32.65 basis points [29][32] - The report mentions that the commodity market saw a decline in the industrial product index, with oil prices weakening while gold and silver maintained strength [30][43] Group 3 - The report states that global equity indices mostly rose in August, with the Dow Jones leading the gains among the three major US indices [45][48] - The AH premium index rebounded, indicating a recovery in the valuation of A-shares compared to H-shares, with the CSI 300/Hang Seng Index ratio rising to over 17% [45][53] - The report highlights that the US Treasury market saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.23% by the end of August, reflecting a 14 basis point decrease [54][60]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anker Innovations is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][18]. Core Views - Anker Innovations reported a revenue of 12.87 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.4%, and a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, also up by 33.8% [1]. - The company continues to launch technologically advanced products, maintaining strong growth across various product categories and regions [2][3]. - The overall financial outlook remains positive, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 expected to be 2.61 billion, 3.43 billion, and 4.29 billion yuan respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Anker Innovations achieved a revenue of 12.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, and a non-GAAP net profit of 960 million yuan [1]. - For Q2 2025, the revenue was 6.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 670 million yuan [1]. - The revenue breakdown shows significant growth in the charging and energy storage category, which generated 6.82 billion yuan (up 37%), and the smart innovation category, which brought in 3.25 billion yuan (up 37.77%) [2]. Product Categories - Charging and energy storage products saw a revenue increase of 37% due to new product launches [2]. - Smart innovation products, including the eufyMake UV PrinterE1, achieved record crowdfunding success, indicating strong market demand [2]. - Smart audio products generated 2.80 billion yuan, with new releases enhancing the product lineup [2]. Regional Performance - North America contributed 5.70 billion yuan (up 23.2%), while Europe saw a remarkable growth of 66.96% to 3.43 billion yuan [2]. - The Chinese market and others generated 3.74 billion yuan (up 25.96%), benefiting from brand investments and channel expansions [2]. Channel Performance - Online sales reached 8.68 billion yuan (up 28.9%), while offline sales grew by 43.6% to 4.19 billion yuan, indicating a successful multi-channel strategy [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 showed slight variations across product categories, with a noted decrease in domestic gross margin potentially due to tariffs and product recalls [3]. - The overall net profit margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 9.3%, reflecting a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory with projected revenues of 32.47 billion yuan in 2025, 41.37 billion yuan in 2026, and 50.49 billion yuan in 2027 [5]. - The dynamic PE ratios for the next three years are projected at 28.1x, 21.4x, and 17.1x, indicating favorable valuation metrics [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.736 billion yuan in H1, a decrease of 2.19% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.815 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company added 2.2 GW of new wind and solar capacity in H1, with a total installed capacity of 49.9366 GW by the end of June [2]. - Despite the increase in installed capacity, the average utilization hours for power generation decreased, leading to an 8.85% increase in total power generation to 39.314 billion kWh [3][4]. - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 6.4 billion, 6.6 billion, and 7.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 18, and 17 times [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 revenue was 14.736 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.19% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.815 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is projected to be 29.884 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.22% [5][10]. Installed Capacity and Power Generation - The company added 2.2 GW of new installed capacity in H1, with a total of 49.9366 GW by the end of June, including 22.9702 GW from wind power and 25.9055 GW from solar power [2]. - The average utilization hours for wind power decreased by 97 hours to 1146 hours, while solar power utilization decreased by 96 hours to 597 hours [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 6.4 billion, 6.6 billion, and 7.2 billion yuan, with P/E ratios of 19, 18, and 17 times respectively [5]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 393.097 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 72.32% [10].

Group 1 - The report focuses on how to accurately and finely track the institutional trading behavior of perpetual bonds from the limited available data dimensions [1][10] - "Other" bonds mainly refer to commercial bank ordinary bonds, secondary capital bonds, and PPN, excluding other separately listed interbank bond types [1][10] - The trading data and transaction data roughly correspond to three categories: commercial bank bonds, perpetual bonds, and PPN [1][10] Group 2 - For bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, over 85% are commercial bank bonds and PPN, with commercial bank bonds accounting for about 50% and PPN for about 35% [2][12] - The remaining portion includes a small amount of TLAC bonds and perpetual bonds [2][12] - For bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years, approximately 90% to 95% are secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds, with a small amount of TLAC bonds and PPN [3][23] Group 3 - Bank perpetual bonds are primarily classified as "other" bonds with a maturity of over 30 years, showing a high correlation in scale and trend with the trading volume of bank perpetual bonds [4][26] - Secondary capital bonds are the main component of "other" bonds with maturities between 5 to 15 years, with a significant correlation observed in the 7-10 year and 10-15 year maturity segments [5][31] - The issuance period of secondary capital bonds is generally structured as 5+5 years or 10+5 years, leading to a fixed difference of 5 years between the exercise period and maturity period [5][40]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 固定收益 证券研究报告 （3）河南、山东、陕西等区域整体估值相对较高，区域整体估值在 2.23-2.34%区间，2.2%以上债券占比在 44-60%区间。其中山东区域 2.2%以 上存量超 8000 亿元，公募非永续存量超 2900 亿元。 （4）重庆、天津、云南、广西、贵州等区域，2.2%以上债券占比在 38-72% 区间，贵州省占比居高。重庆区域 2.2%以上债券集中在 3 年期以上隐含 AA(2)，天津、云南、广西区域在隐含 AA 仍有一定存量。 聚焦省内，2.2%以上城投债如何分布？ 我们进一步聚焦省内，仍根据上文所梳理的 4 个梯队来观察，聚焦 2.2%以 上债券，并关注其中的公募非永续债： （4）重庆、天津、云南、广西、贵州。 2.2%以上，产业债有哪些？ 2.2%以上信用债一览 2.2%以上，城投债有哪些？ 截至 2025 年 8 月 29 日，全国存量城投债规模为 185744 亿元，估值在 2.2% 以上存量债有 60791 亿元，占比 32.7%；估值在 2.2%以上的公募非永续城 投债有 25218 亿元，占整体存量债比重 13.6%。分省来看： （1）江苏、 ...