证券研究报告 2025年10月19日 行业报告： 行业专题研究 医疗设备行业及个股2025半年度回顾与展望 天风医药细分领域分析与展望（2025H1） 作者： 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 二季度收入、净利润同比下滑，2025H1业绩承压。2025H1医疗设备板块整体营业收入同比-7.3%；归母净利润 同比-27.0%；扣非归母净利润同比-27.7%。2025Q2板块整体营业收入同比-8.89%；归母净利润同比-34.9； 扣非归母净利润同比-36.8%。2025H1业绩阶段性承压。 毛利率同比下降，费用率同比持平。2025H1板块毛利率为50.5%，2025Q2板块毛利率为49.7%，同比小幅下降。 毛利率下降主要因为国内医疗器械集采和地方设备更新相关的招采对于国内市场的产品价格压力较大。步策相 招投标持续恢复，数据改善或将迎来拐点 国内招投标在恢复过程中。去年12月份以来医疗设备的月度招标数据持续改善，只是因为当前的竞争更加激烈， 导致从公开招标到收入确认的周期被显著拉长，因此国内今年上半年的收入实际对应的是去年招标的大幅下滑 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 固收周度点评 证券研究报告 把握债市结构性行情 1、本周债市行情回顾：债市仍在寻方向，避险情绪暂时引导行情 本周，债市整体围绕关税摩擦、权益市场表现、避险情绪呈现先跌后涨行 情。其中，超长债在后半周表现亮眼。 其一，配置力量全面回归或为时尚早，但短期内存在边际利好因素。四季 度超长债供给压力预计将低于二三季度，且利率风险指标多为月末季末时 点考核，因此当前大行配债面临的约束虽依然存在，但程度或有所缓和。 保险方面，本周 30Y 期地方政府债和铁道债表现强劲，利率分别下行 6.0BP、 6.7BP，其背后反映的或是保险的配债力量。 2、本周债市聚焦：利差交易的快速演绎 （一）市场抢跑 30Y 国债切券行情，后续新老券利差或区间徘徊。 10 月 14 日，今年的 1.3 万亿元特别国债发行计划已圆满收官。其中，原定 于 10 月 10 日续发的最后一期 30Y 国债变更为分散续发 20Y、50Y 期，反 映出"财政部在债务管理中的灵活性和前瞻性"。考虑到明年仍将有新增超 长期特别国债发行额度，以及目前财政预算支出进度偏慢，"25 特 6"再 迎续发的概率或较小。 目前，"25 特 2" ...

- The report introduces a timing system model based on the distance between the 120-day long-term moving average and the 20-day short-term moving average of the WIND All A Index. The model's construction involves calculating the difference between the two moving averages, with the short-term average currently above the long-term average. The formula for the distance is expressed as: $ Distance = \frac{Short\ Term\ MA - Long\ Term\ MA}{Long\ Term\ MA} $ where Short Term MA represents the 20-day moving average and Long Term MA represents the 120-day moving average. The current distance is 12.26%, down from 12.89% last week, and remains significantly above the threshold of 3%[2][11][17] - The report evaluates the timing system model as effective in identifying market trends, noting that the recent shift from an upward trend to a volatile trend is captured by the model. The model's core observation focuses on changes in risk appetite during volatile periods[2][11][17] - The report highlights the "TWO BETA" model for industry allocation, which recommends focusing on technology sectors, including domestic computing power and the Hang Seng Internet sector. The model emphasizes policy-driven sectors such as photovoltaics and chemicals, alongside dividend assets[3][12][17] - The report suggests using a position management model to adjust stock allocation based on the WIND All A Index. The model recommends a 60% allocation for absolute return products, considering the index's PE at the 85th percentile and PB at the 50th percentile, indicating a medium valuation level[3][12][17] - The timing system model's backtesting results show that the current WIND All A Index trend line is at 6264 points, while the closing price is 6108 points, significantly below the trend line. The market's profitability effect indicator has turned negative for the first time in six months, signaling a potential end to the upward trend[2][11][17]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the orthopedic consumables sector [2]. Core Insights - The orthopedic consumables sector experienced significant performance improvement in H1 2025, with a positive trend in overseas expansion and accelerated corporate layouts [3][5]. - The overall revenue of the A-share orthopedic consumables sector increased by 16% year-on-year in H1 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 70% and non-recurring net profit increasing by 75% [5][11]. - The gross profit margin for the sector was 66% in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.95 percentage points, attributed to ongoing cost control and optimization [5][11]. - The report highlights a favorable trend in overseas business, which is expected to become a significant growth driver for companies in the sector [5][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Orthopedic Consumables H1 2025 Report Analysis - The orthopedic consumables sector saw a revenue increase of 16.24% in H1 2025, with a gross profit margin of 66.07% [9][11]. - The second quarter of 2025 showed a revenue growth of 23% year-on-year, with net profit growth of 84% [11]. 2. Segment Analysis - The joint business segment benefited from the implementation of centralized procurement policies, leading to a sustained increase in both volume and price for leading companies [22]. - The spinal segment is experiencing stable execution of centralized procurement, with significant room for domestic companies to increase market share [29]. 3. Related Company Summaries - **Dabo Medical**: Achieved a revenue of 12.1 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.55%, with a net profit of 2.44 billion yuan, up 76.69% [41]. - **Weigao Orthopedics**: Reported a revenue of 7.41 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight decrease of 1.28%, but net profit increased by 52.43% [57]. - **Aikang Medical**: Generated a revenue of 6.94 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.65% year-on-year [47]. - **Chunli Medical**: Recorded a revenue of 4.88 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 28.27% year-on-year [52]. - **Sanyou Medical**: Achieved a revenue of 2.50 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.77% [61].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 122.00 CNY, based on a current price of 61.99 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company, Xianhui Technology, is recognized as a national-level "specialized and innovative" small giant in the lithium battery equipment sector, focusing on both equipment and structural components to drive growth [1][14]. - The company has entered a new phase of global expansion and solid-state battery development, with significant achievements in overseas markets and partnerships [1][4][39]. - The domestic lithium battery equipment market is expected to see a turning point in growth, driven by increasing production capacity and demand from leading battery manufacturers [2][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xianhui Technology specializes in intelligent manufacturing equipment for fuel and new energy vehicles, having been recognized as a national-level specialized small giant in 2021 [1][14]. - The acquisition of Fujian Dongheng in 2022 allowed the company to enter the lithium battery structural components market, creating a dual-driven product layout [1][14]. Lithium Battery Equipment - The global lithium battery shipment volume is projected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 5,154 GWh by 2030, indicating a robust expansion phase for the industry [39][40]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth, with its domestic lithium battery equipment revenue expected to rebound significantly in the coming years [2][39]. International Expansion - The company has established subsidiaries in Europe and North America, achieving a 482% increase in overseas revenue in 2024 compared to the previous year [3][23]. - By the end of 2024, 68% of the company's orders were from overseas projects, highlighting the importance of international markets for future growth [3][23]. Solid-State Battery Development - Xianhui Technology is collaborating with Qingtao to advance solid-state battery equipment research, aiming to enhance production capabilities and accelerate the commercialization of solid-state batteries [4][39]. - The establishment of a joint laboratory for advanced solid-state battery technology is expected to foster innovation and development in this area [4][39]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.08 billion CNY in 2025, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the following years [5][26]. - The financial outlook indicates a recovery in profitability, with a forecasted net profit of 3.24 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][26]. Management and Shareholding - The management team has a strong background, with significant ownership stakes in the company, ensuring alignment with shareholder interests [34][37]. - The company maintains close ties with major automotive groups, which could enhance business opportunities and collaboration in the future [34][37].

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 流动性跟踪 证券研究报告 大会期间资金平稳或仍占主导 1、核心观点 （1）资金面再度进入舒适状态：10 月中上旬，资金面再度进入舒适状态， 扰动有限的同时，支撑因素较多，包括节假日取现资金回流、财政支出到 位、央行中长期流动性净投放规模可观。 （2）下周资金面仍有望持稳：历史上的 10 月，资金面扰动主要集中在下 旬，资金面往往受到税期走款和跨月压力的共振，而 10 月通常为缴税大月， 税期走款规模相对更大。下周将召开二十届四中全会，从近五年情况看， 尽管 10 月多次举行重要会议，但对资金面的实际影响整体有限，资金更多 沿着季节性规律演绎。2022 年与 2023 年 10 月中下旬资金利率均有上行， 但主要源于流动性缺口，而非会议本身的直接影响。 聚焦今年，资金面有望延续季节性平稳状态：跨季后资金面再度进入低位 低波的舒适状态，几乎再现 8 月状态，彼时打破平稳状态的因子主要在于， 税期走款的和债基赎回压力的发酵，而后随着税期影响消退、央行大额投 放下压力逐步缓解。 下周扰动因子有限，主要集中于周一、周五的国债发行，全周政府债发行 合计超 8000 亿元；此外，周二、周五存单到 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the transaction volume of new real - estate properties increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while the transaction volume of second - hand properties increased month - on - month. Automobile consumption heated up, and movie box office decreased. The demand for consumption showed differentiation. [1][2] - In the production field, the operating rates showed differentiation. The PTA operating rate decreased, and the petroleum asphalt operating rate increased. [1][3] - In terms of investment, the apparent consumption of rebar recovered, but its price decreased. The cement price and inventory - to - capacity ratio were lower than the same period last year. [1][4] - Commodity futures prices fluctuated. Futures prices of non - ferrous metals such as lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and copper led the gains. [1][5] - The central government highly values the continuous pressure on the real - estate market. Recently, first - tier cities have relaxed purchase restrictions, and it is expected that the real - estate policy toolbox may be further opened, aiming for a soft - landing of the market. [1][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Demand - Real - estate: The transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand properties in key cities increased month - on - month. As of the week of October 17, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 242.9 million square meters, up 166% month - on - month and down 22% year - on - year. [2][11] - Consumption: Automobile consumption heated up rapidly, with the daily average retail sales of passenger cars up 94.1% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year. Movie consumption decreased year - on - year, with the national movie box office down 78.3% month - on - month and 38.5% year - on - year. The national migration scale index continued to decline, and subway ridership in first - tier cities increased. [2][36] 3.2 Production - Mid - and upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces increased 1.1% month - on - month, the PTA operating rate decreased 1.6% month - on - month, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remained flat, the rebar operating rate increased 1.3 pct to 41.3%, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased 1.3 pct to 35.8%. [45] - Downstream: The operating rates of automobile tires recovered. The operating rate of all - steel tires increased 20.6% month - on - month, and that of semi - steel tires increased 26.2% month - on - month. [45] 3.3 Investment - Rebar: The apparent consumption of rebar increased 50.5% month - on - month to 219.8 million tons, and the price decreased 1.1% month - on - month to 3224.8 yuan/ton. The asphalt price decreased 3.9% month - on - month to 3231 yuan/ton. [64] - Cement: As of the week of October 17, the cement price index decreased 1.9% month - on - month to 102.8 points. As of the week of October 10, the cement shipping rate decreased 2.1 pct to 37.9%, and the cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased 1.7 pct to 63.3%. [64] 3.4 Trade - Export: The container throughput of ports decreased 6.1% month - on - month and was higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased 4.1% month - on - month. The freight rates of European, East - American, and West - American routes decreased month - on - month. The BDI index increased 5.9% month - on - month. [76] - Import: The CICFI composite index was 633.2 points, down 2.2% month - on - month. [76] 3.5 Price - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased 0.4% month - on - month. The prices of pork and eggs decreased, while the prices of vegetables and fruits increased month - on - month. [5][89] - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased 2.2% month - on - month. The spot price of Brent crude oil decreased 6.1% month - on - month, the COMEX gold futures price increased 5.0% month - on - month, and the LME copper spot price decreased 1.2% month - on - month. In the commodity futures market, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and copper led the gains, while hot - rolled coils, asphalt, and glass led the losses. [5][96] 3.6 Interest - Bearing Bond Tracking - Next week (October 20 - 24), the planned issuance of interest - bearing bonds is 91.42 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 7.74 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 63.3 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 3.25 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds is 24.72 billion yuan, with a net financing of 16.58 billion yuan; the issuance of policy - financial bonds is 3.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 21.06 billion yuan. [6][113] - As of October 17, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year reached 99.6%, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds was 84.0%. [6][115][117] 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - High - level meetings: On October 14, Li Qiang presided over a symposium of economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments. [124] - Monetary policy: On October 15, the central bank carried out a 60 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation for 6 months. [124] - Fiscal policy: The Ministry of Finance will continue to issue in advance the new local government debt limit for 2026. [124] - Macro data: In September, China's exports and imports denominated in US dollars increased year - on - year. The year - on - year decline of CPI narrowed to 0.3%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.3%. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low this year. [124] - Overseas news: OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecast. Powell hinted at a possible interest - rate cut, and the Fed's Beige Book showed that the US economic activity changed little. [124][125] - Real - estate policy: Shanghai will implement urban renewal, Tianjin allowed the withdrawal of housing provident funds for elevator installation in existing residential buildings, and Chengdu implemented a new policy for converting commercial housing loans to provident fund loans. [125]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Chengdu XianDao (688222) [7] Core Insights - Chengdu XianDao focuses on the discovery and optimization of small molecule and nucleic acid new drugs, leveraging four core technology platforms: DEL, FBDD/SBDD, OBT, and TPD, to establish an internationally leading R&D system for new drug discovery and optimization [1][16] - The company is a leader in DEL technology, possessing the largest known library of small molecule compounds globally, and has formed a DEL alliance with major international pharmaceutical companies, enhancing its technical leadership [2][4] - The integration of DEL and AI technologies, along with the completion of high-throughput infrastructure, positions the HAILO platform to significantly expand the chemical space for molecule screening [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Diversified Platform Development - Chengdu XianDao is an international high-tech innovative drug R&D company with subsidiaries in Cambridge, UK, and Houston, USA, focusing on small molecule and nucleic acid drug discovery [16] - The company achieved a revenue of 227.01 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.58%, with a net profit of 50.04 million yuan, up 390.72% [20][22] 2. New Drug Development Trends - The report highlights a resurgence in new drug development, with a significant increase in the number of new chemical entities approved by the FDA, indicating a recovery in both global and domestic new drug R&D [30][34] - In the first half of 2025, the company’s DEL segment generated revenue of 102.19 million yuan, a 40.45% increase year-on-year, driven by flexible and diversified custom library and screening services [22] 3. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 504 million yuan, 608 million yuan, and 739 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.95%, 20.70%, and 21.57% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 81 million yuan, 122 million yuan, and 156 million yuan for the same years [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the stable operation of existing mines and the potential for high-quality development through expansion and exploration [12][10]. - The company has significant mineral resources, particularly in copper, which is expected to see a value reassessment due to a long-term supply-demand gap [21][30]. - The company is likely to benefit from an upward cycle in copper prices, with overseas contracts showing strong growth and sufficient impairment provisions reducing risks [36][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Stable Operation and Development of Existing Mines - The company operates three main mines that contributed 28.2 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for 1.2% of total revenue and 5.5 billion yuan in profit, representing 17.8% of net profit [12][10]. - The current resource reserves for the three main mines include nickel (2.115 million tons), cobalt (219,000 tons), copper (1.791 million tons), lead (314,000 tons), and zinc (615,000 tons) [17][12]. 2. Copper Resource Value Reassessment - There is a significant long-term gap in copper supply, with global refined copper demand projected to reach 33 million tons by 2035, while supply is expected to fall below 19 million tons [21][30]. - The company has two pending copper mines: the Sia Dyk copper mine in Pakistan with 3.78 million tons of copper resources and the Aynak copper mine in Afghanistan with 12.36 million tons of resources [30][34]. 3. Improvement in Core Business and Overseas Growth - New contracts signed from January to August 2025 totaled 679.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 18.2%, but overseas contracts increased by 8.9% [36][3]. - The company has adequately provisioned for asset impairments, with impairment losses accounting for 1.5% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating a potential for gradual improvement in core business performance [36][3]. 4. Financial Data and Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is 6.15 billion yuan, 6.66 billion yuan, and 7.27 billion yuan respectively, with significant contributions expected from the copper mines once operational [42][4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to decline slightly in 2025 but recover in subsequent years, with a projected revenue of 542.24 billion yuan in 2025 and 573.46 billion yuan in 2026 [4][45].

Group 1 - The report highlights that national top-level policies are guiding the rapid development of six key areas in "AI+ applications" as outlined in the State Council's opinion released on August 26, 2025 [2][8] - The six key areas include "AI+" in scientific technology, industrial development, consumer quality enhancement, public welfare, governance capabilities, and global cooperation [2][8] - By 2027, it is expected that AI will be widely integrated into these six areas, with the application penetration rate of new intelligent terminals exceeding 70% [9] Group 2 - The report identifies 50 representative stocks across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US-listed Chinese companies that are actively engaged in "AI+ applications" within the six key areas [3] - Key recommended stocks include: - Shuanghuan Transmission (002472.SZ) for AI+ industrialization and intelligent robotics - Orbbec (688322.SH) for AI+ hardware - Shengye (6069.HK) for AI+ supply chain finance [3] - Stocks to watch include: - Xindong Company (2400.HK) for AI+ gaming - Huazhu Gaoke (688433.SH) for AI+ intelligent manufacturing - Guodun Quantum (688027.SH) for AI+ quantum technology [3] Group 3 - The report elaborates on the "AI+" scientific technology direction, which includes accelerating scientific discovery processes, driving innovation in technology research and development models, and innovating social science research methods [12][17][24] - Specific companies mentioned in the "AI+" scientific technology sector include: - iFlytek (002230.SZ) focusing on AI core technology and applications in various fields [13] - Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH) emphasizing AI-driven digital infrastructure [13] - BGI Genomics (688114.SH) integrating AI into life sciences [13] Group 4 - The "AI+" industrial development direction aims to cultivate new intelligent native models and promote the intelligent transformation of traditional industries [28] - Companies highlighted in this sector include: - Daotong Technology (688208.SH) for AI+ automotive diagnostics [30] - Dingjie Smart (300378.SZ) for AI+ manufacturing digitalization [30] - Huichan Co., Ltd. (688500.SH) for AI+ data intelligence [30] Group 5 - The "AI+" consumer quality enhancement direction focuses on expanding service consumption scenarios and improving the quality of life services [49] - Companies in this area include: - Xindong Company (2400.HK) for AI+ gaming [51] - Giant Network (002558.SZ) integrating AI into core gaming products [51] - Perfect World (002624.SZ) utilizing AI tools in game development [51]