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散奶价格短期反弹难改去化大势,奶价拐点仍可期
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-14 14:41
Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The short-term rebound in raw milk prices does not change the ongoing destocking trend, but a price turning point is anticipated [1] - After significant destocking, beef cattle prices are gradually recovering, with September average prices reaching 25.99 CNY/kg, up 10.7% from the beginning of the year [2] - The rise in beef cattle prices is positively impacting the prices of cull cows, which in September averaged 19.33 CNY/kg, up 19.2% year-to-date [3] Summary by Sections 1) Raw Milk Price Analysis - Despite a short-term price rebound due to holiday stocking and school milk demand, overall prices remain below cost levels, leading to continued industry losses and destocking [1] - The September cow inventory decreased by 0.18% month-on-month, with a cumulative reduction of approximately 8% [1] 2) Beef Cattle Price Analysis - The average price of beef cattle in September was 25.99 CNY/kg, reflecting a 10.7% increase since the start of the year and a 15.6% increase from previous lows [2] - The average price of calves rose to 32.42 CNY/kg, marking a 39% increase from the lowest point in 2024 [2] 3) Impact of Beef Prices on Dairy Companies - The increase in beef cattle prices has led to a rise in cull cow prices, which is expected to improve the financial performance of dairy companies [3] - The trend of narrowing losses from cull cows is likely to continue for an extended period due to the long replenishment cycle in the beef industry [3] 4) Investment Recommendations - The core logic of the sector remains unchanged, with expectations for a price turning point and attractive valuations [4] - Recommended stocks include: Yuran Dairy, China Shengmu, Aoyuan Group, Modern Dairy, and Tianrun Dairy for dairy; and China Shengmu, Guangming Meat, and Fucheng Co. for beef [4]
思摩尔国际(06969):25Q3收入创单季历史新高,HNB业务出货量大幅增加
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-14 12:17
港股公司报告 | 公司点评 我们认为,公司作为提供雾化科技解决方案的全球领导者,壁垒优势不断 凸显,在监管不断趋严的背景下,预计产业链集中度或将加速提升。HNB 业务作为第二增长曲线预计 2026 年起对收入和利润有显著贡献,由于公司加 大自有品牌市场开拓力度,销售费用显著增长,我们调整公司2025-2027 年经 调整净利润为 13.92/20.23/27.59 亿元(前值为 14.72/19.79/26.63 亿元),26/27 年同比+45.33%/36.39%。基于公司的技术和龙头优势,维持"买入"评级。 思摩尔国际(06969) 证券研究报告 25Q3 收入创单季历史新高,HNB 业务出货量大幅增加 事件:公司发布 2025Q3 财务更新,经初步审核,25Q1-Q3 公司实现营收 102.10 亿元,同比增加 21.8%,实现净利润 8.09 亿元,同比下降 23.8%, 加回以股份为基础的非现金开支后,实现经调整净利 11.82 亿元,同比增加 0.1%;25Q3 实现营收 41.97 亿元,环比增加 27.5%,同比增加 27.2%,实 现净利润 3.17 亿元,环比增加 5.7%,同比下降 1 ...
转债市场跟踪:对比4月,转债TACO交易再现?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-14 11:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market or still favors TACO trading, but the volatility of equity asset prices may be weaker than that during the April 2025 tariff 1.0 period [6]. - In the short - term, with relatively weak equity elasticity, it's recommended to maintain a moderately low position and focus on low - price convertible bonds with clause resonance, especially export - chain convertible bonds affected by tariff policies [7]. - In the medium - term, the upward repair of domestic micro - enterprise performance is becoming a consensus, and the high - price equity - biased strategy may still be structurally dominant, with high attention on the rotation strategy of small - cap growth convertible bonds in technology self - controllable directions [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 April 2025 Market Phases and Performance - **Tariff Upgrade Pre - period (April 2 - 7)**: A - shares and convertible bonds declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 7.34% on April 7, and the Wind Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Weighted Index fell over 12%. High - price convertible bonds led the decline, and the equity - biased convertible bond strategy underperformed the market [1]. - **Tariff Counter - measure Initiation (April 8 - 11)**: A - shares and convertible bonds rebounded. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rebounded 2.45%, and high - price convertible bonds rose 5.38% [1]. - **Trade Friction Continuation (April 12 - 20)**: Market risk - aversion sentiment was high, and financial real - estate and dividend industries performed relatively well. Convertible bonds fluctuated narrowly [2]. - **Trade Friction Easing (April 21 onwards)**: Advanced manufacturing and technology sectors drove the market up, while the financial real - estate sector corrected [2]. 3.2 April 2025 Convertible Bond Market Performance by Industry - **High External - demand Exposure Industries**: Industries such as power equipment, machinery, and electronics had deep declines during the tariff upgrade pre - period and weak rebounds later. For example, electronics and home appliance industry convertible bonds' underlying stocks fell over 15% initially and only rebounded about 5% later [3]. - **Balanced Internal and External - demand Exposure Industries**: Industries like national defense and military, computer, and environmental protection had high declines initially but strong rebounds later [3]. - **Domestic - demand - led Industries**: Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, and transportation had low initial declines and led the rebounds [3]. 3.3 April 2025 Performance of Key Export - chain Convertible Bonds - **Good Initial and Rebound Performance**: Convertible bonds in chemical pesticides (Limin Convertible Bond, Suli Convertible Bond), textile and apparel (Shengtai Convertible Bond), and medical equipment (Yirui Convertible Bond, Kangyi Convertible Bond) had low initial declines and good rebounds [4]. - **High Initial Decline but Strong Rebound**: Convertible bonds in semiconductors (Huaya Convertible Bond, Weil Convertible Bond), military (Ruichuang Convertible Bond, Hangxin Convertible Bond), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (Zhongchong Convertible Bond 2) had high initial declines but strong rebounds [4]. - **Deep Initial Decline and Weak Rebound**: Convertible bonds in consumer electronics, cleaning home appliances, medical outsourcing, and tires had deep initial declines and weak rebounds [4]. 3.4 Current Situation of the Convertible Bond Market - **Investor Behavior**: Since the end of August, investors have tended to "take profits". By the end of September, the scale of Shanghai - listed convertible bonds decreased naturally by 7.1% compared to the end of July. Insurance institutions were the main force in reducing holdings, with a 33% reduction, and other major holders also reduced their holdings [6]. - **Valuation**: Thanks to the reverse increase of public funds, convertible bond valuations are still at a relatively high historical level, and valuation indicators have slightly repaired upwards since late September [6].
机械设备锂电设备:锂电扩产周期叠加固态创新周期带来β机遇,差异化发展路径深挖α潜力
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-14 09:14
证券研究报告 2025年10月14日 行业报告: 行业深度研究 机械设备 锂电设备——锂电扩产周期叠加固态创新周期带来β机 遇,差异化发展路径深挖α潜力 作者: 分析师 朱晔 SAC执业证书编号:S1110522080001 1 行业评级: 上次评级: 强于大市 强于大市 维持 ( 评级) 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要 α——锂电设备企业的横向与纵向差异化发展 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 资料来源:宁德时代公告,高工产研行业报告,天风证券研究所 4 ➢ 锂电池出货量持续高速增长:根据高工产研行业报告,全球动力电池出货量由2020年的182GWh增至2024年969GWh,至2025年有望增至1285GWh,预 计2020-25CAGR达48%;全球储能电池出货量由2020年的27GWh增至2024年的301GWh,至2025年有望增至481GWh,预计2020-25CAGR达 78%。全球动力+储能电池出货量有望由2020年的209GWh增至2025年的1766GWh,年复合增速达53%。 ➢ 长期增长依旧具备充足空间:据高工产研行业报告,2030年全球动力+储能电池有望达到5 ...
政策与大类资产配置周观察:特朗普TACO交易再起
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-14 08:12
策略报告 | 投资策略 特朗普 TACO 交易再起 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置周观察 海内外政策要闻 国庆中秋全社会跨区域人员流动量再创新高。来自交通运输部的数据,10月1日 至8日,累计全社会跨区域人员流动量约24.32亿人次,创历史同期新高;日均3.04 亿人次,同比(2024年国庆假期7天日均)增长6.2%。从出行方式看,铁路、公 路、水路、航空客运量均实现同比增长,各方式运输服务保障能力持续提升。 国务院总理李强赴平壤出席朝鲜劳动党建党80周年庆祝活动。应朝鲜劳动党中央 委员会和朝鲜民主主义人民共和国政府邀请,中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理 李强10月9日上午率中国党政代表团乘包机离开北京,赴平壤出席朝鲜劳动党建 党80周年庆祝活动并对朝鲜进行正式友好访问。 何立峰副总理会见多位跨国公司负责人。中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何 立峰 10 月 10 日下午会见美国雅培公司、英国保诚集团、韩国 SK 集团等知名跨 国公司负责人,就全球和中国经济形势、扩大对华投资等交换意见。 国内外政策导向分析 国庆节后(10.8-10.11)海外政策聚焦于WTO上调2025年全球贸易增长预期, AI产品在上半年 ...
一文全析“公募REITs”:公募REITs的概念及核心结构
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-14 07:14
固定收益 | 固定收益专题 固定收益 证券研究报告 不动产投资信托基金(Real Estate Investment Trust, REITs)是向投资者发 行收益凭证,募集资金投资于不动产,并向投资者分配投资收益的一种投 资基金。 公募 REITs 的二级市场 一文全析"公募 REITs" 公募 REITs 的概念及核心结构 中国公募 REITs 未采用海外市场常见的公司型或契约型,而是基于现有法 律框架,采用了"公募基金+ABS"的双层 SPV 结构。 公募 REITs 的发展历程 中国公募 REITs 市场的发展历程大致可分为三个阶段:(1)早期探索与类 REITs 时代(2005-2019);(2)试点启动与市场诞生(2020-2021):2021 年 6 月 21 日,首批 9 单基础设施公募 REITs 产品成功挂牌上市,标志着中 国公募 REITs 市场正式诞生。(3)探索并实现常态化发行(2022 年以来): 2024 年 7 月,发改委发布《关于全面推动基础设施领域不动产投资信托基 金(REITs)项目常态化发行的通知》,标志着中国基础设施公募 REITs 正式 迈入常态化发行的新阶段。 公 ...
赤子城科技(09911):事件点评:多品矩阵筑根基,AI+创新拓增长
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-14 05:41
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of HKD 14.14, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 11.43 [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 3.181 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.0%. The social business segment contributed approximately HKD 2.834 billion, growing by 37.0% year-on-year. Notably, the SUGO platform saw revenue growth exceeding 100% and profit growth over 150% [1]. - The company is actively expanding its innovative product offerings, including the launch of the AI creative content community Aippy, which allows users to generate interactive content using natural language. This aligns with the company's strategy to deepen its presence in the global social entertainment market [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY2025-FY2027, increasing the projections from HKD 67.1 billion, HKD 77.5 billion, and HKD 89.5 billion to HKD 69.1 billion, HKD 85.5 billion, and HKD 102.5 billion respectively. The net profit estimates have also been revised upwards [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the adjusted EBITDA reached HKD 650 million, representing a 44.0% increase year-on-year. The diversified product portfolio and AI technology integration have enhanced the company's strategic foresight and risk resilience [1]. Market Expansion - The company has established a regional headquarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to strengthen its ties with the Middle Eastern market. Additionally, a global headquarters was set up in Hong Kong, marking a new phase in the company's globalization strategy [2]. Product Development - The company is focusing on innovative products, with significant investments in short video content and social e-commerce, contributing to a 70.5% year-on-year revenue increase in its innovative business segment [1][2].
可川科技(603052):3C+汽车功能件双轮驱动,复合铝箔+光模块新增长曲线
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-14 05:09
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 42.00 CNY per share, based on a current price of 29.5 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the dual growth drivers of 3C and automotive functional components, with new growth curves emerging from composite aluminum foil and optical modules [1][2]. - The functional components sector is expected to see a turning point due to the resonance between the new energy and 3C cycles, with significant growth potential in battery-related products [2][5]. - The composite aluminum foil market is projected to grow from approximately 2 billion CNY in 2023 to over 24 billion CNY by 2026, with the company already having completed validation with major clients [3]. - The optical interconnection segment is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by AI and communication technologies, with the company establishing a full-chain capability in optical modules [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established over 10 years ago, focuses on functional components and has expanded into new energy battery sectors, forming three main product categories: battery, structural, and optical components [1][14]. - The company has a strong client base, including major players in the consumer electronics and automotive industries, ensuring stable revenue streams [15][16]. Functional Components - The functional components are critical non-standard parts that enhance the performance of end products, with a direct correlation to the global lithium battery output, which is expected to continue growing [2][37]. - The company’s battery functional components are closely linked to the lithium battery market, with a projected increase in demand as the market recovers [2][53]. Composite Aluminum Foil - The composite aluminum foil is positioned to capture a significant market opportunity, with the company planning to invest 500 million CNY in expanding production capabilities [3][23]. - The company has already secured production capacity with leading 3C battery manufacturers, indicating strong market validation [3][24]. Optical Modules - The optical module business is set to benefit from the increasing demand for high-speed communication technologies, with the company having developed a complete production process for optical chips and modules [4][24]. - Revenue projections for the optical module segment are optimistic, with expected revenues of 1.2 billion CNY in 2025, growing to 4.3 billion CNY by 2026 [4][5]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 1.09 billion CNY in 2025 to 2.18 billion CNY in 2027, with net profits projected to rise from 780 million CNY to 4.05 billion CNY in the same period [5][18]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profit margins as new products gain traction and operational efficiencies improve [25][29].
鸿路钢构(002541):Q3新签订单对应加工量小幅增长,看好Q4基建稳增长预期
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-14 02:16
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company has seen a slight increase in new orders and processing volume in Q3, with a total of 22.267 billion yuan in new orders for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.56%. In Q3 2025 alone, new orders amounted to 7.887 billion yuan, up 4.19% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in actual processing volume corresponding to orders, with a projected processing volume of 1.72 million tons for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [2]. - The steel supply-side reform is anticipated to enhance the company's earnings elasticity, as improved steel prices could lead to accelerated order releases and better accounting profit margins [3]. - The company is focusing on intelligent transformation and has established a dedicated R&D team for smart manufacturing, which is expected to contribute additional profits in the coming years [4]. Summary by Sections Orders and Production - In Q3 2025, the company secured 27 contracts exceeding 10,000 tons, indicating a year-on-year increase in large orders. The main project types include renewable energy, internet, and data centers [2]. - The average price of new orders in Q3 2025 was between 4,584 and 8,512 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase from the previous year [2]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 23.539 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.60%. However, a decline of 8.60% is expected in 2024 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.179 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight increase to 811.5 million yuan in 2025 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16, 14, and 12 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 13.124 billion yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.43 [7].
天风证券晨会集萃-20251014
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-14 00:13
证券研究报告 | 2025 年 10 月 14 日 晨会集萃 制作:产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|中观景气度数据库和定量模型应用——中观景气度高频跟踪及运 用》 1、从整体的行业景气度方面来看,本周电力设备、机械设备、电子、食 品饮料、轻工制造、房地产、商贸零售等行业整体呈上行趋势;石油石化、 建筑材料、医药生物、纺织服饰、汽车、公用事业、环保等行业整体呈下 行趋势。2、本周,我们预测了未来 4 周表现较优的申万二级行业。重视 汽车服务、商用车、汽车零部件、轨交设备Ⅱ、铁路公路、照明设备Ⅱ、 乘用车、家电零部件Ⅱ、化学制药、非金属材料Ⅱ、塑料、消费电子、化 学纤维、电子化学品Ⅱ、电机Ⅱ等申万二级行业。3、根据经济复苏与市 场流动性,可以把投资主线降维为三个方向:1)Deepseek 突破与开源引 领的科技 AI,2)内外共振,经济逐步修复,牛市主线风格"强者恒强", 但周期后半段易有所表现,3)低估红利继续崛起。 风险提示:1)历史复盘仅供参考;2)市场波动性可能影响资产表现;3) 基于模型的定量分析无法代替上市公司基本面的定性分析。 《固收|进出口的"韧性"与"底气"——9 月进出口数据点评》 1、9 月出口 ...