中国海油（600938） 证券研究报告 油气产量高速增长，部分抵消油价波动压力 公司报告 | 半年报点评 中国海油 2025Q2 归母净利润 330 亿 公司 2025Q2 收入 1008 亿元，同比-12.6%，归母净利润 330 亿，同比-17.6%。 Q2 天然气产量大幅增长，主要得益于国内"深海一号"二期投产 2025Q2 原油产量同比+5.5%，其中国内同比+6.3%，海外同比+4.0%。天然 气产量同比+13.6%，其中国内同比+18.6%，海外同比+1.3%。国内原油主要 得益于渤中 19-2、19-6 等油气田的贡献，国内天然气主要得益于"深海 一号"二期全面投产。海外原油增长主要是巴西、圭亚那项目贡献。 严控成本，成本继续下降 2025Q2 单位折旧摊销 / 作业费用 / 弃置费 / 销售管理费用分别为 13.87/6.83/0.72/1.89 美金/桶，同比分别-1.7%/+1.7%/-15.3%/-9.5%。 实现油价较往年同期折价明显收窄 2025Q2 石油平均实现价格 65.77 美元/桶，同比-19.7%，比布油折价 0.9 美 元（折价同环比均明显改善）。Q2 天然气实现价格8. ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 恒立液压（601100） 证券研究报告 中报业绩表现稳健，看好线性驱动器项目贡献新增长极 公司发布 2025 年半年报，业绩表现稳健： 25H1 公司实现收入 51.71 亿元，同比+7%；归母净利润 14.29 亿元，同比 +10.97%；扣非归母净利润 14.5 亿元，同比+16.9%。单 Q2 公司实现收入 27.49 亿元，同比+11.24%；归母净利润 8.12 亿元，同比+18.31%；扣非归 母净利润 7.67 亿元，同比+17.33%。 25H1 公司实现毛利率 41.85%，同比+0.33pct，净利率 27.7%，同比+1.01pct； 期间费用率 9.45%，同比-1.93pct，其中销售、管理、研发、财务费用率分 别变动+0.05pct、+1.11pct、-0.03pct、-3.06pct。 挖机份额持续提升，非挖品类持续突破： 25H1 公司销售挖掘机用油缸 30.83 万只，同比增长超 15%；挖掘机用液压 泵阀在中大型挖掘机上取得持续突破，产品份额持续提升。 非挖行业用液压泵阀产品谱系持续扩充，销量同比增长超 30%；其中，紧 凑液压阀、径向柱塞马达等产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [7][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, achieving revenue of 5.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, and a net profit of 490 million yuan, up 28% year-on-year [1]. - The consumer goods segment showed robust growth, with revenue from the core product, wet and dry cotton towels, reaching 810 million yuan, a 19.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - The medical supplies segment also performed well, with total revenue of 2.52 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a 46.5% year-on-year growth [3]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 48.3%, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 9.8%, down by 0.3 percentage points [1]. - The consumer goods segment's gross margin improved to 58.6%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the medical segment's gross margin decreased to 37.4%, down 0.7 percentage points [4]. - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 340 million yuan, indicating stable operational fundamentals [1]. Business Segments - The consumer goods business generated revenue of 2.75 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 20.3% increase year-on-year, with a notable performance from the "Nais Princess" sanitary napkin line, which saw a 67.6% increase in revenue [2]. - The medical supplies segment's revenue reached 2.52 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with surgical supplies and high-end dressings showing significant growth rates of 193.5% and 25.7% respectively [3]. Channel Strategy - The company has accelerated its omnichannel strategy, with online sales reaching 1.71 billion yuan, a 23.6% increase year-on-year, and offline stores contributing 724 million yuan, up 2.75% [5]. - The total number of offline stores reached 484, with a membership base of nearly 67 million, reflecting continued brand penetration [5]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings forecast, projecting net profits of 1.04 billion yuan, 1.26 billion yuan, and 1.49 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.79 yuan, 2.16 yuan, and 2.56 yuan [6].

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 扩容在即，再看科创债 ETF 证券研究报告 信用策略系列 7 月以来，信用债收益率及信用利差大致呈现出"W 型"走势，成分 券相较于非成分券的相对估值变动大致呈现如下特征： 7 月底以来，部分科创债 ETF 换手率降至不足 10%；8 月下旬以来，伴 随市场阶段性企稳，科创债 ETF 换手率再度有所抬升；此外，科创债 ETF 净值基本跟随对应跟踪指数表现，近期整体呈现震荡回落趋势。 当前，10 只科创债 ETF 的持仓券加权久期在 3.20-4.74 年不等。 二、哪些成分券被增持？ 截至 2025 年 8 月 27 日，被持仓最多的成分券发行主体包括： 国家电力、中铁股份主体的成分券被科创债 ETF 持仓规模在 30 亿元 以上； 7 月中上旬，首批科创债 ETF 上市初期建仓需求下，市场一定程度上 抢筹科创债，进而带动成分券估值迅速下行，较非成分券平均"超涨"约 10bp，1-3 年和 3-5 年期科创债 ETF 主要持仓期限的成分券超涨幅度高于 短端和超长端。 一、上市以来，科创债 ETF 表现如何？ 截至 2025 年 8 月 27 日，首批 10 只科创债 ETF 规模合 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 锡业股份（000960） 证券研究报告 锡锌铟产量超预期，卡房矿区加强开发，资源潜力可期 业绩：25H1 公司实现营收 210.9 亿元，同比+12.3%；归母净利润 10.6 亿元，同比 +32.8%；扣非归母净利润 13 亿元，同比+30.6%。其中 Q2 实现营收 113.6 亿元，同 比+9.5%，环比+16.8%；归母净利润 5.6 亿元，同比+18.8%，环比+12.6%；扣非归 母净利润 8.1 亿元，同比+16.6%，环比+64%。 H1 产量超计划达成，金属价格上涨同步带动利润率上行 锡、锌、铟产量超预期，2025H1 公司生产有色金属总量 18.13 万吨，其中：锡 4.81 万吨（年度计划完成率 53.4%）、铜 6.25 万吨（年度计划完成率 50%）、锌 6.98 万 吨（年度计划完成率 53%）、铟 71 吨（年度计划完成率 69.4%），同比增幅为 6.42%、 -11.10%、1.45%、9.23%。 锡价上行提振锡业务毛利率。25H1，受锡矿供应紧张驱动，锡期货价格偏强运行， 沪锡主力合约均价 26.55 万/吨，同比+5.7%，25 年 6 月末较 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 690 million yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in performance is attributed to the expansion of orders for new aircraft components, cost reduction, and high-quality development initiatives [1][2]. - The company is focusing on the development of the civil aircraft industry and aims to extend its business into future aircraft and high-end manufacturing applications [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, with a net profit of 400 million yuan, an increase of 4.0% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 7.3%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant improvements in quality and efficiency [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 17.2% year-on-year, reflecting a commitment to enhancing research and development [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 1.135 billion yuan, 1.350 billion yuan, and 1.601 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 69.63, 58.53, and 49.36 [2][3].

公司报告 | 半年报点评 广博股份（002103） 证券研究报告 全力聚焦 IP 衍生品业务，协同创新抢抓新机遇 公司发布半年报 25Q2 公司营收 6.9 亿同减 2%，归母净利 0.5 亿同减 8%；25H1 公司营收 12 亿同增 2%，归母净利 0.8 亿同增 4%。 25H1 公司创意产品营收 0.6 亿同减 31%，办公直销营收 6 亿同增 6%；境 内收入 7 亿同减 2%，境外收入 4 亿同增 12%。 全力聚焦 IP 衍生品业务，协同创新抢抓新机遇 公司目前拥有"面包超人"、"JOJO"、"HUNTER×HUNTER"、"银魂"、"三 丽鸥"、"猫福珊迪"、"Brunch Brother"、"魔道祖师"、"天官赐福"、"初音 未来"、"盗墓笔记"、"龙族"、"葬送的芙莉莲"、"咒术回战"等多个国内 外热门 IP ，公司自主培育的"汐西酱"、"MIMO"等 IP 深受粉丝喜爱。 从产品布局来看，公司在巩固文创、常规文具优势项目同时，加速徽章（吧 唧）、卡牌、毛绒等新项目孵化，这与国内 IP 衍生品市场品类结构高度契 合。 公司打造极致单品矩阵的策略，希望通过强化产品竞争力，在细分领域抢 占先机 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The report indicates that the company has successfully navigated a challenging adjustment period in FY25, with core ongoing business showing healthy growth despite a significant drop in overall revenue and profit due to the divestment of the "Yuhui Tongxing" business [3][4] - The total GMV for FY25 is reported at 8.7 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 39.2%, with self-operated products accounting for 43.8% of this total [4] - The company has strengthened its self-operated product development, launching 732 SPUs by May 2025, up from 488 SPUs in FY24, with a diverse range of products including health foods and pet supplies [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25, the company reported revenue of 4.4 billion, with a net profit from ongoing operations of 620 million, and an adjusted net profit of 1.74 billion. Excluding "Yuhui Tongxing," revenue was 4.2 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 31%, while ongoing net profit was 1.35 billion, a year-over-year increase of 30% [1][2] Sales and Marketing Expenses - Sales and marketing expenses for ongoing operations were 902 million, a year-over-year increase of 4.2%, primarily due to increased advertising spending [2] Self-operated Products and Channels - The self-operated product revenue reached 3.5 billion, with a GMV of 3.8 billion, representing 43.8% of total GMV. The self-operated products on the company's app accounted for 28.8% of all self-operated product GMV [1][4] - The company's app channel has seen rapid growth, with GMV from the app increasing to 15.7%, generating revenue of 1.1 billion, up from 900 million in FY24 [5] User Engagement and Satisfaction - The number of paid app subscribers reached 264,000, a year-over-year increase of 33.1%, with user satisfaction rising to 98.7% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 4.61 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 710 million yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year. However, the second quarter showed a positive trend with revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 370 million yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [1][2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 470 million yuan, which corresponds to a dividend payout ratio of 66.4% of the net profit for the first half of the year [1] - The introduction of cabinet products is expected to contribute significantly to long-term growth, with 100 million yuan in revenue from this segment in the first half of 2025 [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 48.6%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 14.7%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 15.8 billion yuan, 17.3 billion yuan, and 19.6 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 12.2x, 11.1x, and 9.9x [3] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 11.20 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.06%, and a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10.20% [4][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company maintains a strong position in the traditional kitchen appliance market, with significant advantages in channels and brand strength. The long-term penetration potential for products like dishwashers remains broad [3] - The company’s subsidiary, Hangzhou Mingqi, reported revenue of 240 million yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a slight increase from the previous year [2]

公司报告 | 半年报点评 欧普照明（603515） 证券研究报告 营收端相对底部，盈利能力稳健 事件： 2025 年 8 月 27 日，欧普照明发布 2025 半年报。2025H1 公司实现营业收 入 32.2 亿元，同比-4.5%，归母净利润 3.7 亿元，同比-4.1%，扣非归母净 利润 2.8 亿元，同比-13.0%。2025Q2 公司实现营业收入 17.3 亿元，同比 -3.2%，归母净利润 2.3 亿元，同比-13.6%，扣非归母净利润 1.9 亿元，同 比-12.1%。 点评： 营收降幅逐季收窄。公司 25Q2 收入同比下滑 3.2%，对比 24Q3/24Q4/25Q1 （yoy 分别-14%/-11%/-6%）降幅进一步收窄。公司在行业发展相对疲软的 周期，积极修炼内功、打磨中长期竞争力，加速渠道下沉与海外拓展，凭 借成熟的营销团队和全国覆盖的渠道网络，提升了商用、电商及国际市场 的渗透力。 毛利率同比回升，捐赠影响表观业绩。公司 25H1 毛利率 38.1%，可比口径 同比-0.3pct，净利率同比持平。2025Q2 毛利率同比+0.6pct 至 39.6%，费 用率整体平稳，销售/管理/研发 ...