证券研究报告 | 2025 年 10 月 21 日 晨会集萃 1、在全年赚钱效应已较充分兑现的背景下，四季度资金行为易趋于保守， 叠加政策预期与业绩验证窗口共振，市场风格往往阶段性转向"盈利质量 +估值安全"的大盘蓝筹。整体而言，根据 2005-2024 样本，微盘股胜率 领先，但各风格之间的差异并不明显，表明四季度或存在风险再平衡特征。 2、行业层面，领涨行业多集中在金融、稳定、顺周期板块，一定程度上 反映年底投资者风险偏好下降，存在锁定年内收益的需求。3、同样考虑 与今年类似的前三季度大盘整体走牛行情，可以观察到存在两种逻辑：一 是"滞涨补涨+高涨幅获利了结"的切换逻辑。第二个逻辑是主线的定力， 如 2017 年的食品饮料和 2020 年的机械设备、电力设备、军工等中游制 造。4、四季度需关注低估值板块切换条件是否成熟，以及高位板块景气 能否持续。目前，部分金融、周期、消费等顺周期板块估值仍处于历史低 位，存在安全边际和切换空间，但我们认为仅凭低估值或难驱动持续性行 情，需叠加政策催化、经济数据改善。 风险提示：1）过去历史经验仅供参考；2）政策出台和落地具备不确定性； 3）海外流动性超预期收紧。 《策略 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "credit explosion chain" in the US may not have ended, and risks may further ferment in the short term, but the risk of a systemic crisis is still controllable, and the probability of a "subprime crisis" is low [4]. - If the risk ferments, US stocks are expected to fall first and then rise; US Treasury yields and the US dollar tend to decline; gold will rise; and emerging markets are expected to see their equities fall first and then rise, with bond yields declining [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Three "Explosion" Events Trigger Concerns about US Financial Risks - **Tricolor Bankruptcy, Auto - Loan ABS Risk**: On September 10, 2025, Tricolor Holdings filed for bankruptcy due to high - leverage, sub - prime loans, "repeated pledge" fraud, and rising auto - loan default rates. The "repeated pledge" of the same "auto - loan pool" as collateral and the increase in sub - prime auto - loan delinquency rates added to its operating pressure. Fifth Third Bank and JPMorgan Chase suffered losses of about $1.8 trillion and $1.7 trillion respectively due to Tricolor's bankruptcy [13]. - **First Brands Bankruptcy, "Black - Box" Financing Exposure**: On September 28, 2025, First Brands, an auto - parts leader, filed for bankruptcy protection, leaving a $5.8 billion leveraged loan debt and a total debt of nearly $12 billion. It relied on syndicated loans and private credit, accumulating high leverage through private credit and asset factoring, with billions of dollars of financing off - balance - sheet. Jefferies faced a $715 million exposure, and UBS and a Japanese joint - venture company may bear losses [15]. - **Two Regional Banks Disclose "Credit Fraud"**: On October 16, 2025, Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp disclosed major credit fraud and bad - debt events. Zions' subsidiary provided a $60 million loan and made a $50 million bad - debt provision. On that day, bank stocks tumbled, and safe - haven funds flowed into Treasuries and precious metals, with gold breaking through $4,300 [16]. 2. Comparison between the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank Crisis and the 2025 Credit Storm - **2023 Silicon Valley Bank Crisis**: The core cause was the asset - liability mismatch and the exposure of interest - rate risk due to the Fed's sharp interest - rate hikes. The secondary cause was the high customer concentration and the resulting confidence - based bank run [20]. - **2025 Credit Storm**: Different from the SVB crisis, the core causes were financial fraud, high - leverage financing, weak credit risk control, deteriorating credit quality due to economic slowdown, and the spread of losses through structured tools [22]. 3. Outlook on the Subsequent Risks of "Credit Explosions" - **Short - Term Spread Possible but Systemic Risk Controllable**: The "credit explosion chain" may not end, and risks may ferment in the short term. The US financial market shows "multi - layer fragility" including large post - pandemic issuance of private credit, CLOs, and CRE ABS; deterioration of underlying asset quality in auto, commercial real estate, and SME loans; and insufficient risk control. However, the risk of a systemic financial crisis is controllable as large banks and the core financial system are stable, and the Fed has room for easing. Current credit risk indicators are performing well [4]. - **Impact on Asset Prices if Risks Ferment**: US stocks are expected to fall first and then rise, with short - term impacts concentrated on the banking and financial sectors. US Treasury yields and the US dollar tend to decline, while gold will rise. Emerging market equities are expected to fall first and then rise, and bond yields may decline [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.62 HKD, representing a potential upside of over 20% from the current price of 9.68 HKD [5][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong revenue growth in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.612 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22%. Gross profit also rose by 22% to 1.182 billion RMB, maintaining a high gross margin of over 73% [1]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the company's robust foundation in artificial intelligence (AI) research, application, and commercialization, alongside favorable digital and AI policies [1][4]. - The company's net profit for H1 2025 was 201 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 41% [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - The company's MaaS (Managed as a Service) revenue in H1 2025 was 502 million RMB, up 19% year-on-year, with core customer revenue increasing by 16% to 381 million RMB and a core customer retention rate of 98% [2]. - BaaS (Banking as a Service) revenue from the financial industry cloud reached 857 million RMB, a 45% increase year-on-year, accounting for 53% of total revenue [2]. - BaaS revenue from the insurance sector, however, declined by 19% to 253 million RMB, despite first-year premiums increasing by 5% to 2.006 billion RMB [3]. AI Commercialization - The company accelerated the commercialization of its AI capabilities in H1 2025, signing contracts with multiple institutions and launching innovative products based on its proprietary large language model, BR-LLM [4]. - The integration of AI capabilities into various sectors, including telecommunications and healthcare, is expected to enhance the company's revenue stability and growth potential [4]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the company's revenue forecasts for FY2025-FY2027 to 3.24 billion RMB, 3.72 billion RMB, and 4.23 billion RMB, respectively, while net profit estimates are revised to 284 million RMB, 351 million RMB, and 431 million RMB for the same period [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price yet to be specified [7] Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in its main brand retail sales, with a low single-digit year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, while its subsidiary, Saucony, experienced over 20% year-on-year growth in retail sales [1] - The company has made notable strides in brand building, serving as the global partner for the 12th World Games in 2025 and providing official gear support, which enhances its international influence [2] - The company is focusing on the growth needs of youth by launching products like antibacterial pants for children and collaborating with various authoritative institutions to promote scientific growth [3] - Saucony has accelerated its growth since being acquired by the company in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 100% and projected revenue surpassing 1 billion RMB in 2024 [4] Financial Projections - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 14.6 billion RMB, 15.4 billion RMB, and 16.5 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.4 billion RMB, 1.5 billion RMB, and 1.7 billion RMB [5]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [3] Core Views - Since October, domestic demand for building materials has shown weakness, with cement affected by cooling, rainfall, and funding issues, resulting in a year-on-year shipment rate still 10 percentage points lower as of last Friday. Glass prices are hindered by insufficient replenishment sentiment post-holiday, leading to increased producer inventory and price stagnation. Currently, the profitability of major building materials like cement and glass remains at relatively low levels. A previously released plan for stable growth in the building materials industry suggests potential continued policy support for supply-side optimization in the fourth quarter. As the year-end performance sprint approaches, companies may increasingly seek to optimize supply and raise prices through market mechanisms. Recent market performance indicates a relative advantage for cyclical stocks, suggesting a possible style shift in the fourth quarter. The building materials sector currently possesses both low valuation defensive attributes and valuation recovery momentum under anti-involution catalysts, continuing to recommend high-demand African cement and glass fiber with price increase expectations [2][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week (October 13-17, 2025), the CSI 300 index fell by 2.22%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) dropped by 3.48%. Among sub-sectors, ceramics and glass performed relatively well, while fiberglass saw a significant decline. Notable individual stock performances included Fashilong (up 18.1%), Huali Shares (up 14.5%), Hainan Development (up 10.9%), Saitex New Materials (up 7.7%), and Tubao (up 6.9%) [1][9]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends the following stocks: Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, Qingsong Construction, China National Materials, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Sankeshu, and Dongpeng Holdings. The current building materials industry is nearing a cyclical bottom, with high-demand new materials expected to continue demonstrating growth potential. Cement is anticipated to benefit from improving infrastructure and real estate demand, with long-term supply dynamics expected to optimize. Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement, Western Cement, and Qingsong Construction, with a focus on companies like Sankeshu and Dongpeng Holdings that are likely to improve their balance sheets as real estate policies become more favorable [3][17].

Core Conclusions - In the context of a fully realized profit effect throughout the year, fourth-quarter funding behavior tends to be conservative, with market style often shifting towards "profit quality + valuation safety" large-cap blue chips [2][3] - The overall market shows a tendency for risk rebalancing in the fourth quarter, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and performance strategies showing positive excess returns relative to the entire A-share market, indicating a shift towards fundamental certainty as the trading focus moves from "high elasticity" to "high stability" [3][9] - Leading sectors in the fourth quarter are concentrated in financial, stable, and cyclical sectors, reflecting a decrease in investor risk appetite and a demand to lock in annual returns [3][17] Calendar Effects in Q4 - The fourth quarter is characterized by a tendency for conservative funding behavior, with a shift towards large-cap blue chips that emphasize profit quality and valuation safety [9][21] - Historical data from 2005 to 2024 shows that micro-cap stocks have a leading win rate, but differences among styles are not significant, suggesting a potential risk rebalancing feature in Q4 [9][17] - The trading behavior in Q4 tends to exhibit reduced volatility, with a marginal tightening of market liquidity and a decrease in average turnover rate [3][9] Switching Conditions Assessment - Attention should be paid to whether the conditions for switching to undervalued sectors are maturing and whether the prosperity of high-valued sectors can be sustained [21] - Some financial, cyclical, and consumer sectors remain at historically low valuations, indicating safety margins and switching potential; however, merely relying on low valuations may not drive a sustainable market trend without policy catalysts and improvements in economic data [21][21]

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 机构行为周度跟踪 证券研究报告 超调品种的价值回归 债市活力指数明显回升 整体来看，本周现券市场净买入力度排序为：其他产品类>保险>基金>农 村金融>货基>券商>理财>城商行，净卖出力度排序为大行>股份行>外资 银行。 券种选择上，目前各类机构主力的券种为：1）大行和农商行无明显主力品 种；2）保险主力 1 年以内利率债；3）基金主力 1-3 年信用债；4）理财 主力 1-3 年信用债；5）其他产品类主力 1 年以内信用债。 截至 10 月 17 日，债市活力指数较 10 月 10 日上升 21pcts 至 21%，5D-MA 上升 19pcts 至 25%。 其中，债市活力升温指标包括：十年期国开债隐含税率（反向）（滚动两年 分位数由 0%上升至 2%）、10Y 国开债活跃券成交额/9-10Y 国开债余额（滚 动两年分位数由 16%升至 56%）、银行间债市杠杆率较过去 4 年同期均值的 超额水平（滚动两年分位数由 6%升至 16%）、30Y 国债换手率（滚动两年分 位数由 3%升至 45%）。降温指标包括：中长期纯债基久期中位数（滚动两年 分位数由 87.6%降至 85.0%） ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 可转债周报 20251020 证券研究报告 风格切换，往后怎么看？ 转债周度专题 本周 A 股权益及转债市场整体回调，市场风格相比节前有所切换，银行、 煤炭等大盘价值行业明显好于科技成长。 归因来看，我们认为近期市场风格切换或主要系：1、Q3 科技等板块结构 性行情过于突出，估值及拥挤度明显提升，而当前市场从成交量、两融等 来看交投情绪或仍不低，资金向估值以及拥挤度等更低方向做切换。2、资 金行为角度，进入 Q4，年末调仓与防御需求下，资金对前三季度涨幅居前 的板块获利了结，转向低估值、高分红的价值板块。3、外部风险及市场情 绪扰动：中美贸易及关税扰动等加剧市场避险情绪，资金短期撤离高弹性 科技股。同时 Q3 业绩期临近，市场或更多定价基本面，部分中小盘股业 绩不及预期风险或导致资金短期向大盘蓝筹集中。 转债后续如何展望？ 对于转债整体，维持相对中性态度。参考《转债量化月报：10 月，转债高 估寻机》中观点，当前点位转债整体估值仍较贵，历史来看性价比或不高， 波动率反转择时因子也更偏中性。且考虑到 Q4 部分机构资金或仍有止盈 行为而流出，以及短期来看，外部风险及市场情绪扰动仍存， ...

风险提示：下游需求不及预期；行业竞争加剧；项目实施不及预期；客户 集中度较高。 公司报告 | 季报点评 圣晖集成（603163） 证券研究报告 Q3 归母净利润同比增长 94%，看好半导体产业链高景气及海外需求增长 三季报业绩增速亮眼，看好公司中长期增长潜力 圣晖集成发布三季报，25 年前三季度，公司实现收入 21.16 亿，同比 +46.3%，归母净利润为 0.96 亿，同比+29.1%；Q3 单季度实现收入 8.21 亿， 同比+59.4%，归母净利润为 0.33 亿，同比+93.9%，主要系新签订单大幅增 长以及海外项目转化所致。考虑到下游高景气及订单前置发力，我们上调 公司 26、27 年业绩，预计公司 25-27 年归母净利润为 1.34、1.7、2 亿（前 值 25-27 年预测为 1.34、1.55、1.75 亿），对应 PE 为 32、26、22 倍，维 持"买入"评级。 在手订单稳步增长，产业需求保持 根据公司三季度在手订单情况，截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日，公司在手订单余 额为 22.14 亿元（未含税），比上年同期增长 21.21%，IC 半导体行业、精密 制造行业、光电及其他行 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The overall sales of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to decline by 20%-30%, aligning with pre-festival expectations due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" in May [2] - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, while the mass market is under pressure, with a notable shift towards lower-priced products in certain regions [3] - The market is characterized by "overall pressure with regional differentiation," where high-end and regional leading brands perform better compared to mass-market products [3] - The price of high-end liquor is stabilizing after a decline, with notable brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing recovery in prices [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the double festival period are under pressure, with a slight recovery in terminal sales observed in September, but overall sales remain constrained [2] - Inventory levels among distributors are high due to sluggish sales, leading to cautious payment collection [2] Regional Analysis - Jiangsu: Stable sales in urban areas, but rural markets are struggling [3] - Henan: Lower-priced products are becoming the main sales drivers due to changing consumer perceptions [3] - Sichuan: Differentiated performance in urban and rural markets, with rural areas showing resilience [3] - Shandong: Sales are influenced by promotional activities, but overall market sentiment is weak [3] Pricing Trends - High-end liquor prices are stabilizing after a decline, with Moutai's price around 1760 yuan [4] - Strong brand power is crucial for performance, with brands like Jiu Gui and Jian Nan Chun showing better resilience [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the upcoming Q3 earnings disclosures, risks may be fully released, and the sector could see a recovery in sentiment [5] - Key investment lines include: 1. High elasticity stocks under policy expectations: Jiu Gui, She De, Shui Jing Fang, Lao Jiao, Hua Zhi [5] 2. Stocks benefiting from consumer recovery: Gu Jing Gong Jiu, Ying Jia, Jin Si Yuan [5] 3. Strong alpha stocks: Moutai, Fen Jiu [5]