石油石化 证券研究报告 金油比价分化与回归 金油比价，当下较大分化怎么解释？ 当前金油比价是历史次高，仅次于 2020 年疫情原油胀库负价格阶段。我们 认为定价因素差异在于原油是基本面定价，黄金是宏观定价。 金油与美元指数关系 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 首先，2000 年以后和以前情况不同。2000 年以后，油价 vs.金价在某种程 度上呈现反相关（USDX 弱，油价弱而金价强），因而 2000 年之后的金油比 价会表现更极端有一定合理性。 其次，历史上每次金油比价极高值出现，都是油价大跌导致的。极值回归都 是以实体改善、油价触底反弹为标志的。 第三，极值回归之后，金价之后 4-5 个月见顶（2016 年 3 月比价极值回归， 当月油价见底，到 2016 年 8 月金价见顶。2020 年 4 月金油比价极值回归， 当月油价见底，2020 年 8 月金价见顶。油价反弹代表实体复苏，实体复苏 之后宽松预期会受到压制。） 风险提示：1) 特朗普执政政策的不确定性； 2）宏观经济的不确定性；3） 地缘局势的不确定性。 2025 年 10 月 17 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue at 358 million yuan, down 18.88% year-on-year, and net profit at 6 million yuan, down 80.99% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is increasing its investment in Shanghai Huilun Pharmaceutical to enhance its innovation and research capabilities, raising its stake from 14.5971% to 15.4567% [1][3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's gynecological products generated 266 million yuan in revenue, down 16.61% year-on-year, while urological products and heat-clearing and detoxifying products saw declines of 26.8% and 23.04%, respectively [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 from 1.192 billion yuan and 1.339 billion yuan to 631 million yuan and 669 million yuan, respectively [4][5]. Research and Development - The company has a robust pipeline of traditional Chinese medicine innovations, focusing on various therapeutic areas, including bacterial vaginosis and male health maintenance [3]. - Huilun Pharmaceutical, in which the company holds a stake, is developing nearly 20 small molecule innovative drugs, with several expected to enter clinical phases by the end of 2025 [3]. Financial Projections - The company's projected net profit for 2025 is 21 million yuan, down from previous estimates of 116 million yuan and 134 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decline to 0.09 yuan in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [5][10].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the performance forecasts for Q3 2025 in the electronics and basic chemicals sectors are promising, with over 10 companies expecting a year-on-year profit growth exceeding 30% [1][9] - The electronics sector is expected to maintain high growth due to the AI wave, which is driving new demand for AI inference [1][12] - The basic chemicals sector is experiencing structural improvements due to supply constraints and demand support, with some industries already showing signs of recovery [1][24] Group 2 - As of October 15, 2025, the overall disclosure rate for Q3 2025 earnings forecasts across all A-shares is approximately 2.83%, with a positive forecast rate of about 83.06% [2][33] - Among the disclosed companies, the median year-on-year net profit growth rate is 71.2%, while the overall method shows a growth rate of 65.6% [2][45] - The sectors with the highest expected profit growth include non-ferrous metals (165.2%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (213.7%), and media (753.9%) [45][48] Group 3 - In the upstream materials sector, significant growth is noted in industrial metals (2150.1%), new metal materials (298.8%), and minor metals (365.7%) [3][48] - The midstream manufacturing sector shows high growth rates in batteries (130.8%), wind power equipment (212.7%), and other electronics (111.6%) [3][51] - In the downstream consumption sector, notable growth is observed in agricultural product processing (372.8%), chemical pharmaceuticals (251.4%), and gaming (753.9%) [3][48] Group 4 - The sectors with the highest positive forecast rates for Q3 2025 include comprehensive services, non-bank financials, and social services, all at 100% [1][41] - Conversely, the sectors with the lowest positive forecast rates include building materials, coal, and beauty care [1][41] - The report highlights that the electronics industry is benefiting from a strong demand for AI-related hardware, with significant growth in the electronic information manufacturing sector [12][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 net profit doubled, exceeding expectations, with revenue of 5.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, and a net profit of 1.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.52% [1][4] - The opening of six new zones contributed to revenue growth, with a total area of 1.25 million square meters, including 410,000 square meters for the market sector, attracting merchants from eight new industries [2] - The company has seen significant growth in cross-border payment services, with transaction volumes exceeding 27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35% [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.061 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.07%, and a net profit of 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.45% [1] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.749 billion yuan, 6.251 billion yuan, and 7.919 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 17, and 13 [4][5] - The company's total revenue is expected to grow from 11.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 33.1 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][11] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company maintains a strong position as a core hub for exports in Yiwu, with significant potential for import growth, particularly in consumer goods [4][3] - The company's innovative pilot projects in the import sector have successfully covered 193 SKUs, indicating robust progress in import reforms [3] - The overall import value in Yiwu has increased by 34% year-on-year, highlighting the growing demand for imported consumer products [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for China Tower (00788) as a first-time coverage [6]. Core Viewpoints - China Tower, established in 2014, is the world's largest communication infrastructure service provider, backed by the three major telecom operators in China, ensuring a solid industry leadership position [1][15]. - The company has adopted a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on operator business while expanding into cross-industry and energy operations, leading to steady revenue growth [2][24]. - The tower business remains a stable cash flow source, contributing over 70% of revenue, while the indoor distribution and energy businesses are rapidly growing [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Tower was established to address the issue of redundant construction in the telecom industry, providing site space, supporting facilities, maintenance, and power services [15][18]. - As of June 2025, the company has over 2.1 million sites and total assets exceeding 330 billion yuan [1][15]. Business Strategy - The "one body, two wings" strategy integrates operator business as the core, with intelligent connection and energy businesses as the wings, enhancing growth potential [2][24]. - The company has seen a shift in revenue structure, with the tower business's share decreasing from 93.4% in 2019 to 76.2% in H1 2025, while the contributions from intelligent connection and energy businesses are increasing [25][24]. Financial Performance - Revenue has grown from 71.82 billion yuan in 2018 to an expected 97.77 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.28% [2][28]. - Net profit has increased significantly from 2.65 billion yuan in 2018 to an expected 10.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 26.25% [2][31]. - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, increasing from 14.98% in 2018 to 68.19% in 2024, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [5][45]. Business Segments - The tower business is entering a phase of stock operation, with site sharing levels improving; as of June 2025, the number of tower sites reached 2.119 million [3][81]. - The indoor distribution business has seen rapid growth, with revenue increasing from 1.82 billion yuan in 2018 to 8.43 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining a CAGR of 29% [93]. - The energy business, focusing on battery swapping, has expanded rapidly, with over 320 cities offering services and a market share nearing 50% [4][34]. Market Position - China Tower leads the global market in terms of revenue, with 97.77 billion yuan in 2024, while also facing competition from American and Indian tower companies [53][56]. - The company benefits from a stable ownership structure, primarily held by the three major telecom operators, ensuring a solid operational foundation [20][24].

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 利率专题 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 17 日 国开债利差会收窄吗？ 国开-国债利差的历史回顾与总结 国开-国债利差具体有多少？纵览其历史走势，资管新规是重要的分水岭， 以此为界，利差经历了由区间震荡、均值回归，到突破下限、极致压缩的 变化。今年二季度以来，利差又再度走阔。 国开-国债利差的走势受什么因素主导？23 年以前，国开债主导利差走势， 且与债市行情紧密相关；23 年以后，"牛市收窄、熊市走阔"的规律仍在， 但国开债利率的解释力度削弱，利差与利率之间背离的时期也时有出现。 规律"失效"频次的增加一方面是由于隐含税率压缩到历史极致低位之后， 国开债利率进一步下行的空间受阻；另一方面，近两年国债流动性较国开 有明显改善，也使得国债对利差的影响力上升。 我们对 2023 年之后，几段利率与隐含税率走势背离的时期进行回顾： 1）23 年 1-4 月，债市利率高位震荡之后下行，10Y 国开债隐含税率从 23/1/4 的 4.2%上升至 23/4/25 的 6.2%，或由于交易情绪依然偏弱、偏好国债的配 置盘主导行情。23 年一季度，债市从 22 年底的赎回潮中开始修复，风险 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7][24]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.234 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.38%, with a net profit of 806 million yuan, up 5.60% year-on-year [12][24]. - The increase in sales volume has driven revenue and profit growth, with the second quarter showing a revenue of 2.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.63% [12][24]. - The original drug business has seen significant growth, with revenue from original drugs, formulations, and trade reaching 3.655 billion, 1.171 billion, and 1.287 billion yuan respectively [2][13]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company reported a gross profit of 1.473 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of approximately 93 million yuan year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.6%, down 0.6 percentage points [2][13]. - Domestic sales increased by 799.5 million yuan to 3.579 billion yuan, while overseas sales decreased by 260 million yuan to 2.655 billion yuan [2][13]. - The gross profit from original drugs, formulations, and trade was 1.031 billion, 312 million, and 105 million yuan respectively, with corresponding gross margins of 28.2%, 26.7%, and 8.2% [2][13]. Production and Sales Volume - The production volume for original drugs and formulations in the first half of 2025 was 57,800 and 25,500 tons, respectively, with sales volumes of 56,700 and 28,100 tons [3][15]. - The average selling price for original drugs was 64,500 yuan per ton, down 3.0% year-on-year, while the average selling price for formulations was 46,000 yuan per ton, down approximately 8.3% [3][15]. Future Growth Potential - The company is advancing the Liaoning Youchuang project, which is expected to provide new growth in the next 2-3 years, with a total investment budget of 3.48 billion yuan and a cumulative investment progress of 84.41% [4][23]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 1.47 billion, 1.78 billion, and 2.04 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027 [24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 145.2 CNY based on a PE of 20X for 2025 [5][3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to expand its growth through overseas markets and the two-wheeler market, leveraging its cost advantages and technological innovations [2][3]. - The company has a significant cost advantage, with a gross margin level exceeding 10 percentage points compared to industry peers, attributed to manufacturing cost efficiencies, technological innovations, and a favorable customer structure [1][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2003, focuses on automotive instruments and has expanded into smart cockpit products, maintaining a leading position in the automotive electronics industry [12][19]. - Key products include electronic combination instruments, full LCD combination instruments, and dual-screen instruments, contributing significantly to revenue [12][19]. Growth Drivers - **Overseas Market Expansion**: The company aims to increase its market share overseas, with a current share rising from 4% in 2022 to 6% in 2023, targeting markets in Korea, the USA, and Malaysia [2][33]. - **Two-Wheeler Market**: The company plans to leverage its automotive instrument capabilities to enter the two-wheeler market, establishing connections with major motorcycle manufacturers [2][37]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 46.45 billion CNY in 2025 to 71.74 billion CNY by 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 11.15 billion CNY to 17.67 billion CNY during the same period [3][42]. - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin of around 34% over the next few years, with specific product lines showing varied growth rates [41][42]. Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 6.97 CNY in 2025, increasing to 11.05 CNY by 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio projected to be 20X for 2025 [3][42]. - The financial data indicates a strong growth trajectory, with significant increases in both revenue and profit margins anticipated [4][42].

基金研究 | 基金专题报告 基金研究 证券研究报告 基于价值驱动的产业趋势洞察者：华商张明昕的投资 与超额收益溯源 华商基金的张明昕是一位具备深厚投研底蕴和系统投资框架的基金经理， 截至 2025 年二季度末（2025 年 6 月 30 日）张明昕在管基金总规模 42.41 亿。他善于判断市场趋势及风格，擅长新能源、TMT、高端制造、优质消 费/医药、周期等行业轮动投资。其以价值为基、趋势为翼的投资理念，使 其在复杂市场环境中仍能保持较强的适应性与竞争力。 张明昕目前所管理的三只公募基金中的两只公募基金（华商均衡成长以及 华商优势行业），基金业绩卓越，截止 2025 年 9 月 22 日相对同类基金（偏 股混合型基金以及灵活配置型基金）超额分别达到了 67.07%以及 57.18%， 展现了明显的超额收益能力。基金业绩排名在同类基金中分别位于前 0.86% 以及前 1.25%，他对市场机会的捕捉能力较强，短期内即为投资者创造了丰 厚的回报。 除华商均衡成长以及华商优势行业之外，基金经理另有一只 7 月 15 日开始 管理的基金——华商致远回报，该基金为浮动费率基金，浮动费率的收费 模式改变了传统固定费率模式， ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a decline in social financing growth, with government bonds contributing negatively, while corporate bonds show strong performance [2][21] - There is a recovery in medium to long-term loans for residents, supported by new policy financial tools introduced by the end of September [2][22] - The M2-M1 spread has narrowed to a new low, indicating an increase in the liquidity of funds, driven by market risk appetite and the performance of the equity market [2][22] Group 2 - The PPI has shown a narrowing decline, indicating a potential entry into an upward cycle, with various macro policies yielding positive effects [4][28] - The CPI remains negative, primarily due to falling food prices, while core CPI shows resilience with a slight increase [4][30] - The report suggests that the PPI may turn positive in the first half of 2026, depending on the effectiveness of policies and improvements in demand [4][29] Group 3 - The titanium dioxide industry is closely linked to domestic demand and real estate, with opportunities remaining in external demand despite anti-dumping investigations [8][36] - The industry has a significant portion of outdated capacity, with about 20% of production facilities over 20 years old [8][37] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with integrated operations, such as Longbai Group, which has a comprehensive titanium supply chain [8][37] Group 4 - Juhua Co., Ltd. is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for refrigerants, with a projected CAGR of 8.7% in revenue and 20.4% in net profit from 2013 to 2024 [10][32] - The company holds a leading market share in the production of third-generation refrigerants, with a production quota of 271,000 tons for 2025 [10][33] - Juhua's diverse product portfolio includes fluorinated chemicals and advanced petrochemical materials, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [10][34]