固定收益 | 固定收益定期 权益优于债券，黄金盘整筑底 证券研究报告 大类资产配置月报 2025.11 一、宏观环境回顾与展望 海外方面：就业疲软，通胀温和，关税风险下降，降息周期预计延续 美国就业显著走弱，通胀全面低于预期，政府停摆导致数据"空窗期"加 大了前景不确定性。中美经贸磋商取得积极成果，我们认为，当前至明年 初，或迎来中美经贸外交的"平静期"。 国内方面：内需复苏偏弱，结构分化，出口强劲，政策或"谋定而后动" 受益于中美关系缓和，四季度出口有望保持韧性、但增速或将放缓。11-12 月消费旺季或提振消费短期表现，但中长期更重要的仍是就业和收入预期 的持续稳定提升。基建投资有望改善，制造业投资分化，房地产恢复缓慢。 总体看，实现全年 5%左右增长目标的压力不大。关注 12 月中央经济工作 会议，四季度不排除政策有"适时加力"的可能，但更多或聚焦向明年布 局，保留"谋定而后动"的空间。 二、大类资产回顾与展望 回望过去 1 个月：海外市场博弈的因素主要包括：10 月上旬，日本和法国 政坛动弹、美国政府关门；10 月中旬，中美贸易关系博弈、美国信贷风险 暴露；10 月下旬，美国 CPI 数据、美联储 FO ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the release of the "Guidelines for Performance Benchmarking of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on October 31, which aims to promote high-quality development in the public fund industry [1][7] - The guidelines emphasize the internal control responsibilities of fund managers and the external responsibilities of market institutions, highlighting the need for a robust internal control system covering benchmark selection, disclosure, monitoring, evaluation, and accountability [8][10] - The guidelines require that performance benchmarks be representative and objective, with a focus on selecting indices that accurately reflect the market and establishing a benchmark element library [10] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, 79 actively managed equity funds have changed their performance benchmarks this year, compared to only 54 in the entire year of 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in benchmark adjustments [2][11] - The changes in performance benchmarks are more aligned with actual investment characteristics, with over half of the changes involving the selection of more representative stock indices, such as transitioning from the CSI 300 to industry or thematic indices [11][13] - The report notes a shift in the distribution of active equity funds' performance relative to benchmarks, with a decreasing proportion of funds showing significant negative deviations, reflecting the reform direction of emphasizing excess returns relative to benchmarks [2][11]

公司发布 25 年三季报，25Q1-3 公司实现营业收入 732.81 亿元，同比 +1.95%，实现归母净利润 53 亿元，同比+11.04%，其中 Q3 单季度实现营 业收入 297.45 亿元，同比+14%，实现归母净利润 25.2 亿元，同比+59.72%， 新开工项目受土地组卷报批、项目红线用地征拆等前期工作影响，未能实 现大面积动工，三季度公司盈利能力改善明显。 订单保持高增长，省内外项目快速发展 25Q1-3 公司新签订单 971.73 亿元，同比+25.16%，其中 25Q1-3 基建新签 订单 826.70 亿元，同比+26%，订单保持较高增长。从订单类型来看，25H1 公司省内中标项目 162 个，金额约 572.3 亿元；省外及国外中标项目 56 个，金额 150.1 亿元，公司成功中标标志性品牌工程江苏张靖皋长江大桥 ZJG-A9 标段，进一步扎根站稳江苏市场；成功中标成都经温江至邛崃高速 公路扩容项 TJ1 标段 TJ3 标段，进一步促进成都西部交通网络的"扩容升 级"。海外市场方面，公司积极拓展国际市场，成功签约科威特经济适用房 项目，并在埃塞俄比亚、马来西亚等新市场实现项目突破。 ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 公牛集团（603195） 证券研究报告 短期调整，蓄势待发 事件： 2025 年 10 月 30 日，公司发布 2025 年三季度财报。2025Q1-Q3，公司实现 营业收入 122 亿元（同比-3.2%，下同），归母净利润 29.8 亿元（-8.7%）， 扣非归母净利润 27 亿元（-4.9%）。其中，2025Q3 公司实现营业收入 40.3 亿元（-4.4%），归母净利润 9.2 亿元（-10.3%），扣非归母净利润 8.6 亿元 （-8.3%）。 点评： 收入降幅收窄，积极布局新业务。受新房竣工低迷影响，国内相关行业整 体需求疲软，公司收入同样承压。今年以来公司依托 PDU（电源分配单元） 积极向数据中心业务布局。目前已与字节跳动、腾讯等客户形成了较好的 合作关系，大功率直流 PDU、高功率小母线等系列新产品受到了广泛好评， 微模块等趋势性新产品正在加紧研发中。凭借在照明及新能源领域积累的 平台化研发和产品能力，公司积极布局太阳能照明业务，通过不断深化的 用户需求洞察，围绕庭院、工厂、乡镇道路照明等场景，推出了"一体化 路灯头"、"投光灯"等高性能产品。 理财收益扰动表观业绩增速 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5][3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operations, outperforming the industry despite challenges in the real estate sector affecting its engineering channel. The retail segment is expected to grow due to consumer preferences for high-quality products supported by government subsidies [2][3]. - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 54.1%, reflecting a slight increase, while the net profit margin was 16.5%, showing resilience in profitability [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, and a net profit of 1.16 billion yuan, down 3.7%. In Q3 2025 alone, revenue was 2.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4%, with a net profit of 450 million yuan, up 0.6% [1][2]. - The company’s operating expenses increased, with the selling expense ratio rising to 30.3%, attributed to reduced government subsidies and increased manufacturer support [2][3]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.56 billion yuan, 1.71 billion yuan, and 1.91 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 11.8x, 10.8x, and 9.7x [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.834 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.38%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.570 billion yuan, down 28.83% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.091 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.53%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 18.69% [1]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth acceleration in Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025 [2]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue breakdown by product line shows that the in vitro diagnostics line generated 3.634 billion yuan in Q3, a decrease of 2.81% year-on-year, while the life information and support line saw a revenue of 2.952 billion yuan, an increase of 2.60% [2]. - The medical imaging line's revenue remained stable at 1.689 billion yuan in Q3, with international revenue accounting for 61% of this line [2]. - The company has increased its R&D expense ratio to 9.43%, reflecting a focus on high-end market breakthroughs [3]. Market Position and International Expansion - The international market grew by 11.9% in Q3 2025, with Europe experiencing a 29% growth [4]. - The company aims to enhance its global supply chain and local production capabilities, which is expected to improve the profitability of its international business [4]. - The company has installed 180 laboratory automation lines domestically, nearing the total for 2024, and has exceeded its international sales target [4]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 33.790 billion yuan, 36.977 billion yuan, and 42.223 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 9.564 billion yuan, 10.996 billion yuan, and 12.746 billion yuan [4]. - The downward revision in forecasts is attributed to intense domestic competition and ongoing healthcare reforms [4].

| 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 11 月 03 日 吴立 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517010002 wuli1@tfzq.com 周新宇 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524070007 zhouxinyu@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 中小市值 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《新兴产业-行业研究周报:菲莫国际、 思摩尔国际发布 2025 年三季度报告， 财务数据表现良好；宁波、黄埔海关查 获 ZYN 侵权产品》 2025-10-26 2 《新兴产业-行业投资策略:哪些"AI+ 应 用 " 赛道 有望 率 先跑 出 龙头 ？ 》 2025-10-17 新兴产业 证券研究报告 国产机器人亮相十五运会火炬传递，重点关注产业链龙头奥比中光、柯力传感！ 本周，国内机器人产业迎来亮眼突破：在第十五届全国运动会（简称十五运会）深圳站火炬传 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the stock-bond allocation value has retreated from historical extremes, with the equity risk premium (ERP) stabilizing below one standard deviation [1] - The overall A-share index PE valuation stands at 22.0, with most broad-based indices around the 60th percentile historically, indicating relatively low valuations [1][29] - Market trading indicators show a decline in trading heat, with turnover rates and transaction volumes decreasing compared to the previous month, suggesting a cooling market sentiment [1][29] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggestions have been officially released, marking a new phase in China's modernization process, emphasizing the importance of building a modern industrial system and financial strength [2] - The report indicates that local governments are likely to draft their own five-year plans by the end of the year, following the central government's guidelines [2] - The AI infrastructure investment is expected to significantly increase, with companies like Microsoft planning to expand their global AI infrastructure spending to meet growing demand [2] Group 3 - The report identifies green methanol as a key alternative fuel, with a projected demand of approximately 6.79 million tons from new methanol-fueled vessels expected to launch in the coming years [5] - China's green methanol production capacity is anticipated to achieve scale ahead of other regions, with a significant portion of global projects being developed in China [5] - The report recommends focusing on green methanol producers and related equipment manufacturers, highlighting companies like Goldwind Technology and Donghua Technology [5] Group 4 - The report notes that the AI server and cloud computing business is experiencing rapid growth, with a significant increase in revenue and profitability for companies involved in AI infrastructure [4] - The demand for AI computing power continues to rise, with GPU server shipments increasing by over five times year-on-year [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and market demand in driving the performance of companies in the AI sector [4] Group 5 - The report discusses the transition from UPS to HVDC technology, with major companies like Meta and NVIDIA making significant advancements in this area [7] - The domestic market is expected to see sustained demand for HVDC technology driven by initiatives like "East Data West Computing" [7] - Investment recommendations include focusing on domestic leaders in HVDC technology and companies that can benefit from the transition from UPS to HVDC [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [7]. Core Insights - The bank's revenue and profit have shown steady improvement, with a revenue of approximately 265.08 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.82% [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 76.562 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.98% [2][5]. - The bank's net interest margin recorded at 1.68%, a slight decrease of 2 basis points compared to the first half of 2025 [2]. - Non-interest income has significantly increased, with net fees and commissions rising by 11.48% year-on-year to 23.094 billion yuan, and investment income soaring by 76.70% to 31.651 billion yuan [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the bank's total interest-earning assets amounted to 18.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.15% [3]. - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities stood at 17.30 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.81% [3]. - The non-performing loan ratio was reported at 0.94%, with a loan provision coverage ratio of 240.2% [4][5]. - The bank's projected net profit growth for 2025-2027 is estimated at 0.95%, 2.68%, and 3.98% respectively [5]. Asset and Liability Structure - The composition of interest-earning assets includes loans (51.43%), financial investments (35.28%), interbank lending (6.43%), and deposits with the central bank (6.86%) [3]. - The structure of interest-bearing liabilities is primarily composed of deposits (93.72%), bonds issued (1.82%), interbank liabilities (4.31%), and borrowings from the central bank (0.16%) [3]. Market Position and Valuation - The current price of the bank's stock is 5.75 yuan, with a target price yet to be specified [7]. - The bank's total market capitalization is approximately 576.37 billion yuan [8].

股债性分类指数看，10 月偏债型转债整体表现相对最好，偏股型转债整体 下行。三类转债整体涨跌幅均弱于对应类别正股。 10 月各风格转债指数表现分化明显，其中低价、高 YTM、高股息风格转 债指数涨幅最大，且跑赢中证转债指数，而动量、低溢价转债指数本月涨 幅为负。年内来看，低溢价转债指数涨幅已低于双低风格。从 2018-2024 各年度 11 月来看，历史 11 月双低、高股息风格胜率相对中证转债指数更 高。 固定收益 | 固定收益专题 贝塔收敛，低估为锚 证券研究报告 转债量化月报 转债指数跟踪 10 月主要权益指数、中证转债指数先下后上，整体呈"V"形走势。中证 转债指数月度下跌 0.11%，年内来看，中证转债指数涨幅为 16.99%。 期权估值继续冲高，当前已高于历史 99%分位水平 期权定价看，转债市场估值自 8 月下旬高点回落后，10 月末估值再次冲高， 当前估值偏差值为 6.94%，高于 2018 年以来 99%分位水平（6.63%）。市场 低估转债个券数量仅 17 只，数量占比为 4.49%。中长期来看，警惕估值水 平均值回归带来的回调风险。 结构上看，当前仅 A+及 A评级分档下转债整体估值低于 ...