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宏观数据预测专题:三季度经济金融“成绩单”前瞻
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-12 02:47
固定收益 | 固定收益专题 三季度经济金融"成绩单"前瞻 证券研究报告 宏观数据预测专题 三季度经济复苏的成色与瓶颈如何?四季度经济如何演绎?本文聚焦于 此。 工业增加值:预计 9 月当月同比为 5.4% 9 月生产 PMI 较前值上升 1.1pct 至 51.9%,升至近 6 个月高点;采购量指数 升至 51.6%,企业加快原材料采购,显示生产积极性和经济景气度边际回升, 故而我们预计今年 9 月工增环比或为正,9 月工业增加值同比增速为 5.4%。 社零:预计 9 月当月同比为 3.2% (1)9 月服务业 PMI 较上月回落 0.4pct 至 50.1%,餐饮、房地产等行业商 务活动指数低于临界点;(2)9 月地产销售有所好转,但仍低于历史同期, 预计地产后周期消费边际改善,但难以为 9 月社零增速提供较大支撑;(3) 考虑到"以旧换新"政策补贴效应下降,预计其对社零的支撑或有所减弱。 固定资产投资:预计 9 月累计同比 0.2% 基建方面,9 月基建投资累计同比有所回落。(1)9 月建筑业 PMI 为 49.3%, 比上月上升 0.2pct,但仍处于收缩区间;(2)9 月石油沥青装置开工率明 显回升, ...
流动性跟踪:下周资金有望延续舒适状态
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-11 14:42
Group 1 - The report indicates that liquidity is expected to remain comfortable in the upcoming week, with a stable transition across the quarter despite some fluctuations observed from September 23 to September 25, where the central bank's operations were relatively cautious [1][12] - On September 26, the central bank injected 600 billion yuan through a 14-day reverse repurchase agreement, which revitalized market sentiment and helped overnight funds recover to below 1.35%, supported by increased fiscal spending at the quarter's end [1][12] - Historical trends suggest that in October, funding rates typically operate around a central level, with early month conditions being relatively loose due to the easing of regulatory assessments and the influx of fiscal spending [18] Group 2 - The upcoming week will see nearly 1.7 trillion yuan in public market maturities, including 1.021 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, 500 billion yuan in buyout repos, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [3][24] - Government bonds are set to issue over 200 billion yuan, with planned issuances of 221 billion yuan in national bonds and 213 billion yuan in local bonds, while maturing national bonds total 2.594 trillion yuan and local bonds 946 billion yuan [4][35] - The willingness of major banks to lend has shown signs of recovery, with funding rates declining; for instance, DR001 decreased by 6.81 basis points to 1.32% as of October 10 [5][18]
高频跟踪周报20251011:基建实物工作量的积极变化-20251011
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-11 14:42
Group 1: Demand - New housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreased by 61% week-on-week and 48% year-on-year, remaining below seasonal levels [13][15][29] - First-tier cities saw significant declines in new housing transactions, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing week-on-week drops of 78%, 72%, 61%, and 85% respectively [13][15] - Automotive consumption showed a notable increase, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars rising by 49.3% week-on-week, despite a year-on-year decline of 4.8% [38] Group 2: Production - PTA operating rate remained stable at 77.7%, while the operating rate for rebar decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.0% [47] - The operating rate for asphalt facilities increased to a year-to-date high of 40.1%, reflecting a 5.7 percentage point rise [47] - Downstream production rates for automotive tires decreased significantly, with full steel tire operating rates dropping by 14.9% and semi-steel tire rates by 18.3% [47][59] Group 3: Investment - Apparent consumption of rebar fell by 39.4% week-on-week to 146.0 million tons, with prices slightly decreasing to 3260.0 yuan per ton [62] - Cement shipment rates decreased week-on-week, with the cement price index dropping by 0.6% to 104.9 points [62][70] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to accelerate infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [1] Group 4: Trade - Port container throughput increased by 8.8% week-on-week, surpassing last year's levels, while the CCFI comprehensive index fell by 6.7% [73] - Export shipping prices continued to decline, with significant drops in rates for European and American routes [73][77] - The BDI index also experienced a decline of 4.4% week-on-week [73] Group 5: Prices - Agricultural product wholesale prices saw a slight decrease, with the 200 index dropping by 0.1% [83] - Pork prices fell by 2.7% week-on-week, while vegetable prices decreased by 2.9% [83][86] - The PPI for industrial products decreased by 0.2%, with Brent crude oil prices falling by 0.6% [87] Group 6: Interest Rate Bonds - As of October 10, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds reached 99.3%, with a total issuance of 19,862 billion yuan [102][104] - New general bonds issued totaled 6,717 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 84.0% [107] - The total issuance of government bonds for the year was 121,835 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 55,837 billion yuan [109]
华夏中海商业REIT即将发售
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-11 10:51
Industry Dynamics - Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT (Fund Code: 180607) is set to be launched for sale from October 13 to October 14, 2025, at a price of 5.281 yuan per share, with a total fundraising target of 1.5843 billion yuan. The public offering will consist of 27 million shares. During the offline inquiry phase, the REIT received inquiries from 149 institutional investors managing 1,014 allocation targets, with a total subscription amount of 23.6074 billion shares, which is 374.72 times the initial offline offering of 6.3 million shares, setting a new market record [1][7]. Primary Market - As of October 10, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs has reached 196.6 billion yuan, with a total of 75 REITs issued [8]. Market Performance - In the week from October 9 to October 10, 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell by 0.26%, while the REITs Total Index decreased by 0.25%. The Property REITs Index dropped by 0.29%, and the Operating Rights REITs Index declined by 0.16%. In terms of major asset classes, the REITs Total Index outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.27 percentage points but underperformed the CSI All Bond Index by 0.36 percentage points and the Nanhua Commodity Index by 0.71 percentage points. On an individual security level, E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT, Huatai Nanjing Jianye REIT, and Huaxia Jinyu Intelligent Manufacturing Park REIT led the gains with increases of 1.93%, 1.35%, and 1.03%, respectively. Conversely, Hongtu Shenzhen Anju REIT, CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT, and Huaxia Jinmao Commercial REIT experienced declines of -1.76%, -1.63%, and -1.63%, respectively [2][16]. Liquidity - Overall liquidity in the REITs market increased this week. The total trading volume of REITs (MA5) was 434 million yuan, up 0.4% from the previous week. The trading volumes for Property and Operating Rights REITs (MA5) were 301 million yuan and 134 million yuan, reflecting changes of 3.3% and -5.4%, respectively. Specifically, the MA5 trading volumes for various REIT categories this week were 54 million yuan for Park Infrastructure, 43 million yuan for Energy Infrastructure, 29 million yuan for Warehousing and Logistics, 34 million yuan for Affordable Rental Housing, 14 million yuan for Municipal Environmental Protection, 77 million yuan for Transportation Infrastructure, 164 million yuan for Consumer Infrastructure, and 21 million yuan for Data Center Infrastructure. The Consumer Infrastructure category accounted for 37.7% of the total trading volume [3][37]. Correlation - The correlation coefficients between the CSI REITs Index and major asset classes over different periods indicate varying relationships. For instance, the CSI REITs Index has a negative correlation with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index over the past 20 days, while it shows a positive correlation with the CSI All Bond Index [29][30].
银行:14天OMO、MDS、MLF的定价
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-11 07:33
行业报告 | 行业专题研究 银行 证券研究报告 14 天 OMO、MDS、MLF 的定价 14 天 OMO、买断式逆回购(以下简称 MDS)、MLF均为利率招标、多重价位中标,在这一 模式下,银行司库在申报时会有三点考虑: 第一,理论上,OMO、MDS、MLF 均属于央行投放的基础货币,既然有央行信用背书,定 价应低于同期限市场类利率。 第二,这些工具已弱化政策属性,意味着各家机构的中标利率并不统一,而是存在一定差异, 甚至不排除会出现 OMO、MDS、MLF 高于市场利率的情况。 第三、银行司库在申报这些工具时,我们预计主要考虑四点:政策利率、市场利率、自身头寸、 同业情况,具体而言:1、政策利率。7 天 OMO 利率作为基准利率,目前为 1.4%,这意味 着其 他货币政策 工具利率, 都不会低 于这一水平 。例如, MDS 框定 的利率区间 为 1.4%-1YMLF 利率(由银行申报 MLF 时决定)。2、市场利率。在框定利率区间后,银行司 库一般会选择同期限市场利率,作为货币政策工具报价的参考系。例如,MDS 和 1YMLF 则 会分别参考 3M 和 6M、以及 1Y 同业存单(AAA)收益率。3、自身 ...
固态电池设备的瓶颈:等静压
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-10 14:53
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [3][55]. Core Insights - The core bottleneck for solid-state battery performance and mass production is the densification of the solid-solid interface, which can be improved using isostatic pressing technology [5]. - Isostatic pressing technology effectively eliminates internal voids in battery cells, enhances inter-component contact, increases conductivity, and reduces volume changes during operation [5]. - The global isostatic pressing market is projected to reach 91.26 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.69% [27]. Summary by Sections Isostatic Pressing Equipment - Isostatic pressing machines are categorized into cold, warm, and hot types based on the temperature during forming and consolidation [20][21]. - Cold isostatic pressing operates at room temperature with pressures ranging from 100 to 630 MPa, while warm and hot types operate at temperatures not exceeding 500°C and 1000-2200°C, respectively [21][23]. Latest Developments of Leading Companies - Naconor is focusing on solid-state battery core equipment, including isostatic pressing technology, which is still in the R&D and validation stage [7]. - China Aviation Industry Corporation's subsidiary, Chuanxi Machinery, has produced over 1,500 isostatic pressing machines, widely used in defense and high-tech sectors [7]. Market Trends - The Asia-Pacific region is leading the global isostatic pressing market due to demand for high-performance components and favorable government policies [27]. - North America and Europe are emerging markets for isostatic pressing, driven by manufacturing in aerospace, automotive, and energy sectors [27]. Applications of Isostatic Pressing Technology - Isostatic pressing is applied in various industries, including ceramics, hard alloys, new energy, and refractory materials, to enhance density and performance [14]. - The technology ensures uniform pressure application, reducing internal stress and improving mechanical properties [26]. Equipment Development and Innovations - The HIPEX1850 hot isostatic pressing machine developed by China Steel Research is the second largest in the world, capable of processing large aerospace components [31]. - Sichuan Lieneng has developed the first large-diameter, high-pressure warm isostatic pressing machine in China, addressing equipment challenges for large ceramic parts [42].
同业存单的“预算线”
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-10 14:25
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [7] Core Insights - The report focuses on the treasury behavior of banks, explaining the "budget line" logic of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) and reviewing historical patterns to assist investors in assessing the interest rate levels of interbank CDs from a different analytical perspective [2][12]. - The "three principles" for issuing interbank CDs are: meeting regulatory indicators, ensuring safety of reserves, and balancing costs. These principles are dynamic and adjust according to market conditions and the bank's operational status [3][14]. - The average liability cost rate of state-owned and joint-stock banks serves as the "budget line" for pricing interbank CDs, with a focus on controlling costs and avoiding significant increases in financial expenses [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Logic of the "Budget Line" for Interbank CDs - The issuance of interbank CDs is primarily based on three principles: indicators must meet standards, reserves must be safe, and costs must be balanced. The emphasis on these principles can shift based on market conditions [3][14]. - As of September, the total balance of OMO, MLF, and MDS approaches 14 trillion, indicating a generally friendly attitude from the central bank towards liquidity [3][28]. - Treasury departments typically set the issuance rate of 1Y interbank CDs not to significantly exceed the average liability cost rate of the bank [30]. 2. Historical Review and Outlook of the "Budget Line" for CDs - From 2019 to the present, the 1Y interbank CD interest rate has generally formed a corridor with the 1Y MLF rate as the upper limit and the average liability cost rate as the lower limit. However, since Q2 2024, the interest rate has trended below the average liability cost rate [5][35]. - The decline in the average liability cost rate's lower limit function is attributed to the continuous decline in bank interest margins and the emergence of a trend where interest margins fall below non-performing loan rates [5][36]. - By H1 2025, the average liability maintenance rate for state-owned and joint-stock banks, excluding Postal Savings and China Merchants Bank, is projected to be 1.71%, indicating that the current 1Y interbank CD rate aligns closely with the "budget line" [6][42].
金油比价明显分化怎么解释?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-10 13:33
行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 金油比价明显分化怎么解释? 金油比价,当下较大分化怎么解释? 当前金油比价是历史次高,仅次于 2020 年疫情原油胀库负价格阶段。我们 认为定价因素差异在于原油是基本面定价,黄金是宏观定价。 油价跟随基本面,略微领先 US10Y 过去十年,油价紧跟基本面(OECD 原油库存):当下 OECD 原油库存处于 中等偏低水平,但是油价率先下跌,因为市场预期 2026 年原油基本面持续 宽松会加剧累库。 过去十年,油价和 US10Y 呈现略微领先的正向关系:原油累库预期→油价 下跌预期→通胀压力缓解预期→降息预期。 过去十年,金价与美国 10 年期国债收益率几乎呈负相关:黄金作为无息资 产,其机会成本和实际利率水平相关,当实际利率下降时,黄金的吸引力提 升,反之则下降。美国从 2025 年 9 月开始降息 25 个基点,市场普遍预期 美国进入降息周期,债券市场对降息预期的定价最为敏感,市场主流预期美 国 10 年期国债收益率下降。 本轮金价和新兴国家央行需求相关:自俄乌战争发生之后,新兴市场央行加 大购买黄金的力度,相较于发达市场央行持有的黄金比例较低,央行需求的 ...
2025年诺贝尔生理学或医学奖授予“外周免疫耐受”的开创性发现,Treg在自免、癌症、免疫排斥等多个方向具备开发潜力
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-10 10:42
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded for groundbreaking discoveries in "peripheral immune tolerance," highlighting the development potential of regulatory T cells (Treg) in autoimmune diseases, cancer, and organ transplantation [1][2] - Key research findings include the identification of Treg cells by Shimon Sakaguchi in 1995 and the discovery of the FOXP3 gene's role in Treg development and function by Mary E. Brunkow and Fred Ramsdell in 2001 [2] - The "peripheral immune tolerance" mechanism offers therapeutic avenues for various diseases, including enhancing Treg function for autoimmune diseases, inhibiting Treg activity in cancer to allow immune system attacks on tumors, and improving organ transplant acceptance [3] Summary by Sections - **Therapeutic Development**: Multiple therapies targeting the Treg mechanism are currently undergoing clinical validation, with companies like RegCell and Sonoma Biotherapeutics founded by the awarded scientists focusing on Treg therapies [4] - **Market Opportunities**: Chinese companies such as Cellin Biotech and Bionautics are also entering this field, targeting diseases like amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis through Treg therapies [4] - **Targeted Therapy Challenges**: The main challenge in Treg-targeted therapies is selectivity, requiring drugs to distinguish between harmful tumor-infiltrating Tregs and beneficial peripheral Tregs [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies to watch include Lixin Pharmaceutical (CCR8 antibody LM-108), Kangyuan Pharmaceutical (CCR8 antibody KYS2301), and others developing CTLA-4 and CCR8 antibodies [5]
豪悦护理(605009):逐步深化洁婷整合
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-10 07:13
公司报告 | 半年报点评 25Q2 营收 8 亿,同增 26%,归母净利 0.6 亿,同减 47%,扣非后归母 净利 0.6 亿,同减 48%。 25H1 公司营收 18 亿,同增 34%,归母净利 1.5 亿,同减 23%,扣非后 归母净利 1.5 亿,同减 24%。公司营收增长系湖北丝宝纳入合并范围。 25H1 公司婴儿卫生用品收入 9.31 亿,占总营收 52.9%;成人卫生用品 6.39 亿,占总营收 36.31%;其他产品 1.90 亿,占总营收 10.79%。 聚焦主业,持续提升经营质效 公司将聚焦资源持续加大线上推广投入,促进自主品牌发展,优化产品结 构,研发迭代新产品,持续与大客户开展深度合作,以婴儿护理用品、成 人护理用品等产品为重点,拓宽合作区域。 豪悦护理(605009) 证券研究报告 逐步深化洁婷整合 公司发布半年报 公司依托对市场深入了解及工艺技术创新,为消费者增加新产品选择,研 发的结构完全创新的易穿脱经期裤、超透气新型材料等产品,已经推向市 场。同时,公司及时抓住消费新需求,新增湿巾类系列产品品类,加大自 有品牌推广投入,提升销售量。 持续迭代产品能力及客户资源优势突出 通过对消 ...