中恒电气（002364） 证券研究报告 通信电源龙头，受益 AIDC 算力提升 专注电源 29 载，受益 AIDC 算力提升。公司成立于 1996 年，主要从事高 频开关电源系统的研发、生产、销售和服务。主要业务包含电力电子制造 和电力数字化两大板块，电源系统业务为公司营收主线，未来有望受益智 算中心算力提升。 通信电源：数据中心电源受益算力高增，5G 扩张带动站点能源 1）全球及中国算力规模呈高速增长态势。2020 到 2023 年，全球算力规 模已提升至 1369EFLOPS，CAGR 达 46.5%。智能算力规模持续快速扩张， 2024 年，中国智能算力的增幅已经远超同期通用算力增幅，预计 2025 年， 中国智能算力占比将达到 35%。伴随算力规模攀升，数据中心用电量增速 显著。2024 到 2030 年全国数据中心用电量年均增速预计约 20%，显著高 于全社会用电量增速。 2）HVDC 凭借多维优势驱动渗透率加速提升。目前数据中心和智算中心 的通用供配电解决方案为 UPS 供电系统。相较于传统 UPS 供电系统， HVDC 在能效、供电可靠性等方面展现出显著优势。公司为数据中心 HVDC 绿色供电技 ...

公司报告 | 公司点评 电广传媒（000917） 证券研究报告 25Q1 受投资项目影响短期承压。2025 年第一季度，公司实现营业收入 9.22 亿元，同比增长 2.67%； 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 0.03 亿元，同比减少 89.1%。主要系 IPO 数量减少，基金投资项目 退出减少，投资业务板块利润下降。2024 年，公司营业收入 39.02 亿元，同比减少 0.47%；归属于上市 公司股东的净利润 0.96 亿元，实现连续四年盈利。 文旅业务践行"文化+科技+旅游"，"新文旅"战略纵深推进。2024 年，文旅业务实现收入 4.11 亿元， 占总营业收入比重 10.52%。芒果文旅各景区累计接待游客 620 多万人次，同比增长 51%。存量项目方 面，长沙世界之窗主题乐园 2024 年实现营业收入 1.78 亿元，净利润 0.25 亿元；圣爵菲斯大酒店 20 24 年实现收入 1.41 亿元，净利润 0.0 3 亿元，连续九年实现盈利。新项目方面，衡阳苏州湾老街暨青春东 洲岛项目于 2024 年 9 月 20 日试运营，累计接待游客量超 200 万人次；湘潭万楼芒果青年码头项目于五 一期间吸引 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 转债策略研究 证券研究报告 如何构建转债评级预测模型？ 可转债主体年报业绩期结束，转债评级调整重回市场短期关注焦点。评级 调整有何规律？如何对转债评级调整做前瞻预测？ 转债信用评级动态演化分析 1）转债市场近 5 年反映出信用风险边际扩大的趋势，整体呈"易下难上" 格局。2020-2024 年，评级下调数量由 7 只增至 49 只，上调案例不到 3 例/年。2）评级调整呈现季节性集聚。3）行业结构性分化明显，社会服务、 纺织服饰等行业下调比例显著较高。4）产业链分化显著，TMT 与制造产 业链风险抬升。5）评级下调迁移路径集中，下调主体中 AA、AA-级占比 长期占据主导地位。 转债评级因子体系 在可转债信用评级的预测中，构建一个全面且科学的评级因子体系是实现 精准预测的关键基础。基于市场实践与理论分析，并结合机器学习模型的 结果，可以将转债评级因子体系分为五大类： 1）转股压力因子：大多指标均为快变量，随市场行情逐日变化，便于实 时跟踪转债转股压力动态。债券余额/正股市值、正股近期是否创年内新低 等指标与评级下调显著正相关；正股收盘价、转股价值等显著负相关。 2）偿债压力因子：构 ...

公司报告 | 公司点评 古井贡酒（000596） 证券研究报告 坚持"全国化、次高端"战略，25 年稳健发展可期 2024 年 公 司 营 业 收 入 / 归 母 净 利 润 / 扣 非 归 母 净 利 润 分 别 为 235.78/55.17/54.57 亿元（同比+16.41%/+20.22%/+21.40%）；2025Q1 公司 营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 91.46/23.30/23.12 亿元（同 比+10.38%/+12.78%/+12.78%）。 年份原浆引领增长，产品结构稳中有升。24 年年份原浆/古井贡酒/黄鹤楼 及 其 他 营 业 收 入 180.86/22.41/25.38 亿元（同比 +17.31%/+11.17%/+15.08%），其中年份原浆占比提升 0.59pcts 至 79.10%， 年份原浆增长快于整体，奠定公司增长基本盘。量价角度看，24 年公司酒 类销量/吨价分别同比+8.44%/+7.37%，量价齐升驱动公司营收增长，其中， 年份原浆销量/吨价同比+11.99%/+4.75%，年份原浆延续放量势能，同时从 均吨价来看产品结构整体仍保持升级态势。 省内大本 ...

公司报告 | 公司点评 渤海轮渡（603167） 证券研究报告 运量有望增长，高股息或持续 航空运力减少，轮渡客运量有望回升 烟台—大连航线航空运力大幅减少，旅客有望分流到轮渡，带动渤海轮渡 客运量增长。2025 年 2 月开始，大连—烟台航线航空运力同比降幅持续 扩大，5 月份航班量同比下降 52%、座位数同比下降 40%。2025Q1 该 航线有 4 家航空公司在运营；到 5 月下旬，幸福航空和九元航空已经没有 航班计划和航班量，东方航空和天津航空的航班量减少。同时，机票价格 （最低价）已经高于轮渡（最低价）。所以部分航空旅客有望转向轮渡出行， 渤海轮渡客运量有望扭转下滑趋势。 开始运新能源汽车，车运量有望回升 5 月 31 日开始，渤海轮渡新投入的"绿安通"轮货滚船正式上线运营， 这是烟台至大连航线首艘可以运载新能源车的滚装船。姊妹船"绿安达" 轮不久也将上线。随着新能源汽车销量增长，往来渤海海峡的轮渡车运需 求在增加。渤海轮渡开通新能源汽车轮渡业务，有望带动车运量增长，车 运量下滑趋势有望扭转。 盈利有望增长，高股息或将持续 渤海轮渡客运量和车运量有望增长，并带动收入和利润增长。2023 和 2024 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 06 月 13 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《固收|美债仍有上行压力？》 一、拉长时间看，美债似乎进入拐点。期限溢价从 2023 年下半年开始持 续上行，背后是市场对美国财政问题恶化、贸易政策不确定性的担忧。一 些历史规律也在失效，铜金比和 10Y 美债走势不再相关，或反映了投资 者正在重新定价美国国债的避险属性。二、下半年美债怎么看？展望下半 年，关税和财政问题延续，10Y 美债收益率预计继续在当前 4.2–4.6%区 间附近震荡，但三季度面临进一步上行的风险。美债信用下降的背景下， 期限利差将继续扩大、利率曲线进一步陡峭化。三季度，核心因素是关税、 财政法案。关注一是 7 月 9 日对等关税的"暂停期"到期后，关税是否落 地执行；二是财政法案方面，两党博弈或在 8 月进入最后阶段。四季度， 核心因素在于美联储。从目前联储官员表态来看，相比于降息以预防衰退， 维持高利率来控通胀仍然更为重要。受益于移民流入的下降，就业数据尚 稳健；而关税对通胀的传导，美联储或需更多时间观察数据结果。年内或 降息 1-2 次，但不足以带动长端利率显著下行。 风险提示：特朗普关税谈判超 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the 10Y US Treasury yield still faces significant upward risks in the second half of the year. It is expected to continue oscillating around the current range of 4.2–4.6%, with a risk of further upward movement in the third quarter. Against the backdrop of the decline in US Treasury credit, the term spread will continue to widen, and the yield curve will become steeper [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Year's US Treasury Trend Review - Since April, the US Treasury yield has experienced two rapid upward movements. Trump's tenure can be divided into four stages: from February to March, recession expectations led to a downward trend in yields; in April, tariffs caused a sharp decline; in May, Moody's downgrade and the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" led to another drop; since late May, concerns have eased, and yields have slightly declined [10][11]. - In the long - term, the US Treasury seems to have reached an inflection point. The term premium has been rising since the second half of 2023, reflecting concerns about the US fiscal problems and trade policy uncertainties. The historical positive correlation between the copper - gold ratio and the 10Y US Treasury yield has disappeared, indicating a re - pricing of the US Treasury's safe - haven attribute [12][15]. 3.2 Three Upward Risks of US Treasuries 3.2.1 Uncertainty of Trump's Spending Bill - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" may be signed into law in the second half of the year. If it is implemented in August, the Treasury will issue bonds to replenish funds, and if the spending scale exceeds expectations, it may exacerbate deficit concerns, pushing up the term spread [18][21]. 3.2.2 Shaking Market Confidence in US Treasury Credit - The US fiscal debt - servicing burden is increasing. The post - pandemic deficit rate has remained high, with a central level of 6.4% from 2022 to the present, significantly higher than the pre - pandemic level. The CBO predicts that the public debt - to - GDP ratio will reach 118% by 2035 [23][26]. - The "de - dollarization" process is accelerating. The proportion of overseas holders of US Treasuries has decreased to 32.6% at the end of 2024, while the proportion of gold in official reserves has increased from 5.7% in 2013 to 12.8% in 2024 [33]. 3.2.3 Increased Fragility of the US Treasury Market Structure - The "basis trading" strategy of hedge funds has increased the vulnerability of the US Treasury market. Since 2022, the "short" positions of hedge funds in the US Treasury futures market have significantly increased [37]. - The continuous rise in Japanese government bond yields may lead to a reduction in Japanese investors' purchases of US Treasuries. As Japan exits its ultra - loose monetary policy, the attractiveness of the "carry trade" has decreased, reducing the demand for US dollar assets [38][40]. 3.3 Outlook for US Treasuries in the Second Half of the Year - In the third quarter, the core factors are tariffs and fiscal bills. Attention should be paid to whether the reciprocal tariffs will be implemented after July 9th. The bipartisan game on the fiscal bill may enter the final stage in August, and attention should be paid to whether the fiscal expenditure scale exceeds expectations and the impact of the Treasury's bond issuance on the term spread [42]. - In the fourth quarter, the core factor is the Fed's decision. Maintaining high interest rates to control inflation is more important than cutting rates to prevent recession. The Fed may cut rates 1 - 2 times this year, but it is not enough to drive down long - term interest rates significantly [46].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has a stable main business, with a focus on high-end and international development to build long-term competitiveness [1][3] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.014 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.02%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 142 million yuan, down 68.67% year-on-year [1] - The company is actively expanding its market, with notable progress in the high-end ultrasound segment and stable performance in the endoscope segment [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's R&D expense ratio was 23.48%, an increase of 5.36 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio reached 28.45%, up 3.72 percentage points [2] - The ultrasound business generated revenue of 1.183 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 3.26% year-on-year, but high-end product sales increased [2] - The endoscope revenue was 795 million yuan, down 6.44% year-on-year, with the HD-580 series performing well [2] Growth Strategy - The company adheres to a high-end and diversified strategic path, with R&D expenses of 473 million yuan in 2024, focusing on high-end fields [3] - The company has made significant advancements in artificial intelligence technology, with the AI prenatal ultrasound screening technology receiving domestic certification [3] - Internationally, the company achieved a revenue of 970 million yuan, accounting for 48% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 3.27% [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.416 billion yuan, 2.852 billion yuan, and 3.382 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 332 million yuan, 456 million yuan, and 671 million yuan for the same years [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market," with an expected industry index increase of over 5% in the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the revenue for the company is under short-term pressure due to changes in customer structure, while gross margin has significantly improved. The overall gross margin is 23.5%, an increase of 11.2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by substantial improvements in the gross margins of ADAS and robotic products [2][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in automotive intelligence and the development of the robotics industry, suggesting a positive outlook for future growth [5]. Revenue Overview - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 330 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%. The revenue from ADAS products was 230 million yuan, down 25.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a major OEM customer switching to other suppliers. Conversely, revenue from robotic and other products was 70 million yuan, showing an impressive growth of 87.0% due to increased sales of E1R and Airy [2]. Delivery Volume - The delivery volume of LiDAR products in Q1 2025 was 108,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%. The ADAS LiDAR delivery volume was 96,700 units, down 16.8%, while the delivery volume for robotic and other fields increased by 183.3% to 11,900 units [3]. ADAS LiDAR Business - The company has launched the 1080-line LiDAR EM4 and digital LiDAR EMX in January and April, respectively. Since the launch of the EM platform, the company has secured production contracts for over 100 vehicle models from 30 OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, with 38 models already in mass production [3]. Robotics LiDAR Business - In the field of robotic LiDAR, the company has established exclusive partnerships with leading global lawnmower robot clients and has reached cooperation agreements with major players in the delivery robot sector. The company has also formed mass production agreements in the Robotaxi sector with companies like Didi and Pony.ai [4]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that despite short-term revenue pressures, the significant improvement in gross margins for ADAS and robotic products positions the company favorably within the LiDAR industry. Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the company as it continues to capitalize on the trends in automotive intelligence and robotics [5].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The report indicates that U.S. shale oil companies are maintaining capital expenditure discipline, with many companies lowering their capital expenditure guidance for 2025 Q1 due to the impact of U.S. government tariff policies and OPEC's accelerated production increase, resulting in a drop of approximately $10 per barrel in oil prices since April [1][13] - The sensitivity analysis shows that below $60 WTI, there is a linear relationship between the number of drilling rigs and the lagged WTI price, with a $1 change in price risking 4-5 drilling rigs and 2-3 hydraulic fracturing platforms [2][21] - The breakeven oil price for the latest sample of shale oil companies is highest at $62 per barrel, with an average of $54 per barrel, slightly down from the previous year [4][48] - The report concludes that shale oil companies' willingness to increase or decrease production is contingent on oil prices, with production increases likely only above $65-70 per barrel, while maintaining current activity in the $50-60 range, and potential widespread reductions below $50 [5][71] Summary by Sections 1. Capital Expenditure Discipline - U.S. shale oil companies have adjusted their capital expenditure guidance for 2025, reflecting a focus on efficiency and cost management, with some companies reducing the number of drilling rigs while maintaining production guidance [1][13][14] 2. Sensitivity Analysis of Shale Oil Activity - The analysis indicates that the number of drilling rigs is closely tied to WTI prices below $60, with a notable decline in drilling rigs observed as WTI prices fell [2][21][22] 3. Production Cost Trends - The report highlights a continued trend of cost deflation in shale oil production, although tariff policies may introduce uncertainties regarding future costs [3][31] 4. Breakeven Points for Shale Oil Companies - The breakeven oil prices for major shale oil companies have been calculated, with the highest being $62 per barrel, and the average breakeven price showing a slight decrease compared to the previous year [4][48] 5. Conclusion on Production Willingness - The report summarizes the production willingness of shale oil companies based on oil price ranges, indicating that significant production increases are unlikely below $65 per barrel, while stability is expected in the $50-60 range [5][71]