Domestic Economic Overview - In September, the manufacturing PMI index rose to 49.8%, up from 49.4% in August, indicating a marginal recovery in production activities, although it remains in the contraction zone [8][9] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50%, down from 50.3% in the previous month, while the composite PMI output index increased slightly to 50.6% from 50.5% [8][9] - Supply-side indicators showed improvement, with the production index and new orders index rising to 51.9% and 49.7%, respectively, reflecting a marginal increase [8][9] - The upstream price index has turned down for the first time since June, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [8][9] International Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September was delayed, with the ADP employment number showing a decrease of 32,000, contrary to expectations of an increase of 51,000 [24] - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East impacting economic conditions [19][21] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies are focused on three main directions: 1) Breakthroughs in technology AI led by Deepseek, 2) Economic recovery with a "stronger stronger" market style, and 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [26] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Hang Seng Internet sector, suggesting that funds will initially favor high-growth sectors before concentrating on main lines as the market matures [26] Policy Tracking - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to discuss documents for the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session, indicating a focus on economic planning and policy adjustments [17] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at supplementing project capital [17]

Core Insights - The report indicates that trading sentiment remains active, with asset linkage indicators showing significant potential for growth. The current stock-to-bond allocation value has retreated from historical extremes, with the equity risk premium (ERP) stabilizing below one standard deviation [2][3][17] - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is at 22.5, with most broad-based indices around the 70th percentile historically, suggesting that valuations remain relatively low [2][18] - Investor behavior shows an increase in stock buybacks, while net reductions in industrial capital have widened. The three main funding sources have seen a rebound compared to the previous month, indicating a positive trend in new fund establishment [3][36][41] Asset Linkage Indicators - The stock-to-bond relative yield is at 0.97% and -0.05% respectively, indicating a high comparative value for stock assets against bonds, despite a recent decline from previous peaks [11][14] - The holding stock-bond yield difference is at 6.20%, reflecting a significant historical percentile of 66.9%, suggesting upward potential [14] - The ERP is currently at 2.59%, which is below the historical average and indicates a relatively high risk premium for equities [17] Market Configuration Indicators - The PE ratio for the Wind All A index is at 22.5, with a historical percentile of 78.5%, indicating that most indices are above the 50th percentile historically [18][20] - Valuation dispersion is at 0.795, close to the historical median, suggesting a moderate level of risk [21] - The turnover rate is reported at 2.05%, indicating a high level of trading activity, with a historical percentile of 85.3% [26] Market Trading/Sentiment Indicators - The maximum daily trading volume for the month is at 91%, indicating sustained high trading sentiment [29] - The industry trend indicator shows that 97% of industries have a positive monthly trend, reflecting strong market momentum [32] - The proportion of stocks above the 50-week moving average is at 77.08%, indicating a high level of market strength [35] Investor Behavior - The stock buyback scale has increased to 12.152 billion, indicating a positive trend in corporate actions [38] - The net reduction in industrial capital has widened to 48.929 billion, suggesting a cautious outlook from major shareholders [41] - The three funding sources indicator is at 0.65, showing a recovery in funding flows and an increase in new fund establishment [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.168 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.64%. The net loss was 413 million yuan, a reduction in loss of 36.01% compared to the previous year [1]. - The sales revenue of the company's core product, Tislelizumab, in the domestic market reached approximately 954 million yuan in H1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of about 42%. The product has received approval for 12 indications, with four new indications added to the medical insurance directory in 2025 [2]. - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody, JS207, is currently in Phase II clinical trials, demonstrating strong anti-tumor activity in preclinical studies. It is being explored in various tumor types in combination with other therapies [3]. - The company has a rich pipeline of oncology drugs, with the anti-BTLA monoclonal antibody, Tifcemalimab (JS004), currently in Phase III clinical trials for LS-SCLC, having enrolled nearly 400 patients [4]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 2.584 billion yuan and 3.441 billion yuan, respectively. The expected net loss for 2025 is adjusted to 675 million yuan [5]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 31.77 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 766.39 million shares [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -2.32 yuan in 2023 to 0.18 yuan in 2027, indicating a potential turnaround in profitability [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 700 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, down 8.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on differentiated growth through new materials, particularly in high-end markets [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 200 million, 230 million, and 280 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 55x, 48x, and 39x [4]. Product and Service Summary - **Fine Woolen Fabric**: Revenue of 340 million yuan, down 16%, with a gross margin of 38.3%, up 0.5 percentage points [2]. - **Apparel**: Revenue of 220 million yuan, down 21%, with a gross margin of 37.4%, up 4.5 percentage points [2]. - **Ultra-High Fiber**: Revenue of 90 million yuan, up 2.6%, with a gross margin of 27.2%, up 13 percentage points; this product is a strategic focus for the company [2]. - **Nylon Fiber**: Revenue of 70 million yuan, with a gross margin of 7.9% [2]. - **Others**: Revenue of 10 million yuan, up 45% [2]. Marketing Summary - Direct sales revenue was 650 million yuan, down 1.6%, while distributor sales revenue was 80 million yuan, down 31% [3]. - The company employs a "direct + agency" dual marketing model, establishing professional teams and direct offices for comprehensive market development and after-sales service [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 11.1 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 9.5 billion yuan [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach approximately 5.1 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 33.55% [10][11]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 2.87%, 15.36%, and 17.12% respectively [9]. Financial Forecast Summary - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 200.64 million yuan in 2025, with an EPS of 0.40 yuan [10][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 35.27% by 2025 [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes overseas and domestic macro - dynamic trends during the National Day holiday. Overseas, the US government shutdown, economic data fluctuations, and changes in market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are the main focuses. Domestically, A - shares show a structural market, and the bond market maintains an oscillating pattern. Meanwhile, the National Day holiday sees a significant increase in cross - regional passenger flow, a boost in the tourism market, and a stable performance in the movie market [12][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Macro - dynamic Tracking 1.1 Overseas Assets: Equity Rallies, Gold Hits New High - During the National Day holiday, the expectation of two more Fed rate cuts this year strengthened, leading to a decline in the 2Y US Treasury yield. The US government shutdown pushed up the term spread, and gold prices soared to a record high. OPEC+ considering increased production in the next three months caused oil prices to fall. - Global major stock indices mostly rose. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq increased by 1.19%, 0.82%, and 1.49% respectively in the week up to October 6. - In the commodity market, gold, silver, and copper prices rose, while oil prices fell. The US dollar slightly increased, and the euro and yen against the US dollar declined [13][15]. 1.2 Overseas Politics: Focus on the US Government Shutdown - The US federal government shut down on October 1 due to the Senate's rejection of the Republican's temporary appropriation bill. The probability of this shutdown lasting until October 15 or later is 70%. - The government shutdown may impact GDP through consumption, business operations, and government spending. Historical data shows that previous shutdowns led to a decline in GDP growth rates [19][22][23]. - Other political hot - spots include new US tariffs, the Trump administration's plan to end the Gaza conflict, and the Supreme Court's ruling on the Fed official's dismissal [24]. 1.3 Economic Data: US Employment and PMI - US JOLTS job openings in August were higher than expected, with an increase mainly in healthcare and accommodation & catering, and a significant decline in construction and the federal government. - US ADP employment in September was significantly lower than expected, with a decrease of 32,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in September was slightly higher than expected, but new order demand was weak. The ISM services PMI was significantly lower than expected, with a sharp decline in business activity and new orders [27][29][34]. 1.4 Fed: Market Rate - cut Expectations Strengthen - Fed officials had different stances during the holiday. Logan and Goolsbee were hawkish, while Milan was dovish. - Market expectations for two more rate cuts this year strengthened. As of October 3, the probability of 25bp rate cuts in October and December was 86.3%, up from 65.4% a week ago [37][38][39]. 2. Domestic Macro - dynamic Tracking 2.1 Domestic Assets: A - shares' Structural Market, Bond Market Maintains Oscillating Pattern - In late September, A - shares were led by the technology - growth sector. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index all rose. Looking ahead, A - shares will continue the structural market driven by policies and liquidity. - The bond market is in an environment where negatives outweigh positives, with interest rates likely to oscillate. Short - term bonds are stable, while ultra - long - term bonds are weak [41]. 2.2 National Day Passenger Flow: Cross - regional Passenger Volume Hits a New High - During the first half of the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday (up to October 4), the cross - regional passenger volume reached about 1.25 billion person - times, a 5.7% increase from the previous year, with a daily average of over 310 million person - times [6]. 2.3 National Day Tourism: Travel Radius Further Expands - The 8 - day holiday boosted both domestic and outbound tourism. Long - distance outdoor consumption demand was evident, and outbound tourism continued to heat up. For example, bookings for trips to Russia increased nearly three - fold after the visa - free policy, and the top 10 popular outbound destinations included Japan, Thailand, etc. [7][47]. 2.4 Off - line Consumption: National Day Movie Market Remains Stable - As of 17:28 on October 6, the total box office (including pre - sales) of the 2025 National Day movie season exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than last year. The average ticket price decreased, and the market remained stable due to price concessions and diversified supply [8][50].

Industry Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the civil explosives industry [1] Core Insights - The civil explosives industry is characterized by stable demand growth, strong resilience, and policy-driven supply-side consolidation [2][3] - The market size for civil explosives in China is approximately 400 billion [2] - The production value of civil explosive enterprises reached 416.95 billion in 2024, with a profit total of 96.39 billion, indicating a profit growth of 13.04% year-on-year [14][19] - The industry is transitioning from product sales to integrated operations, including research, production, sales, import-export, and blasting services [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Civil explosives are essential in energy and infrastructure industries, with a significant role in mining and construction [2][3] - The production value of civil explosive enterprises in 2024 was 416.95 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, while profits increased by 13.04% [14][19] Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a shift towards higher concentration, with the CR20 increasing from 50.5% in 2013 to 83.17% in 2024 [2][48] - The demand for civil explosives is regionally concentrated, with notable growth in Xinjiang due to coal and hydropower projects [3] Production and Sales - In 2024, the total production and sales of industrial explosives were 449 million tons and 448.5 million tons, respectively, showing a slight decline [14][19] - The main types of industrial explosives produced include gel emulsified explosives and porous ammonium oil explosives, which together account for over 80% of total production [16][19] Policy and Regulation - The government aims to enhance industry concentration and optimize product structure, with plans to form 3 to 5 large competitive enterprises by 2027 [2][48][44] - Policies are encouraging the development of mixed explosives and the reduction of traditional explosives [40][42] Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include Guangdong Hongda, Yipuli, Guotai Group, Jiangnan Chemical, and Yahua Group, which are positioned well within the evolving market landscape [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The high-end liquor prices have rebounded, which may temporarily boost market confidence. The current Shenyin Wanguo white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18.66X, which is 3.13% lower than the reasonable level over the past decade. The dividend returns from leading liquor companies are attractive, and consumer spending is expected to gradually recover, suggesting a focus on recovery opportunities in the sector [1][13][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From September 22 to September 26, the food and beverage sector declined by 2.49%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% and the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.07%. Specific sub-sectors include soft drinks (+0.86%), meat products (-0.02%), beer (-0.77%), snacks (-1.33%), and others [20]. Weekly Updates - **Liquor**: The white liquor sector fell by 3.03%, underperforming the overall food and beverage sector. High-end liquor prices have increased, with Feitian Moutai rising by 90 yuan per bottle over five days. Despite slight pressure on consumption, the price increase may boost market confidence [1][13]. - **Yellow Wine**: Key players like Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan saw declines of 5.80% and 2.24%, respectively. The sector is entering a verification phase for product distribution and sales [2]. - **Beer**: The beer sector decreased by 0.77%. Notable companies include Qingdao Beer (+0.2%) and Yanjing Beer (+1.7%). Future consumption policies are expected to drive sales recovery [2][14]. - **Soft Drinks**: The soft drink sector showed positive performance, with significant gains from companies like Yangyuan Beverage (+32.49%) and Jinziham (+11.93%). The sector remains attractive due to ongoing trends [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - **White Liquor**: Focus on three main lines: strong beta stocks (e.g., Jiugui Liquor, Shui Jing Fang), recovery concept stocks (e.g., Yingjia Gongjiu), and strong alpha stocks (e.g., Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai) [19]. - **Beer**: Emphasize three main lines: sustained growth stocks (e.g., Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring), potential performance rebound stocks (e.g., Angel Yeast), and category expansion stocks (e.g., Kuaijishan) [19]. Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE ratio is 21.0 times, ranking 22nd among primary industries. The soft drink sector has the highest valuation increase this week, while the health product sector saw the smallest decrease [28]. Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.50%. The decline in prices has been narrowing since the beginning of the year [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the communication industry [10] Core Insights - The communication equipment sector experienced a revenue growth of 12.7% year-on-year in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery since Q4 2023, with AI computing power driving this growth [2] - The overall net profit for communication equipment in Q2 2025 increased by 19.0% year-on-year, reflecting strong profitability amid the transition to new growth drivers [2] - The report emphasizes the sustained high growth potential in the optical communication sub-sector, driven by global AI demand [3] Financial Summary and Outlook - The optical device sub-sector saw a remarkable revenue increase of 72.81% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with net profit growth of 133.5%, indicating a robust demand for optical modules fueled by AI [3] - The Internet of Things (IoT) sector continues to show good revenue growth, validating the ongoing recovery trend, with companies benefiting from the long-term trend of interconnected devices [3] - The optical fiber and cable sub-sector reported a revenue growth of 16.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, although net profit declined by 9.6% [3] - The IDC & CDN sector faced a revenue decline of 9.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking four consecutive quarters of revenue decline [4] - The main equipment sector showed a revenue turnaround with a growth of 9.1% and 16.5% in Q1 and Q2 2025 respectively, driven by strong demand for computing power [4] - The satellite industry reported a revenue of 1.12 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down 17.0% year-on-year, but is expected to enter a growth phase as satellite internet networks develop [4] - The Beidou and military communication sector experienced a revenue decline of 7.1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, but long-term growth is anticipated with new equipment entering service [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in "AI + Overseas Expansion + Satellite" core targets, particularly in optical modules and devices, as well as domestic computing power lines [6] - Key recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongtian Technology, among others, with a focus on AI-related sectors [7][14]

价格剪刀差升至年内新高 证券研究报告 PMI 数据点评 9 月制造业 PMI 49.8%，连续两个月回升 9 月制造业 PMI 为 49.8%，较前值上升 0.4 个百分点，连续两个月回升；非 制造业商务活动指数为 50.0%，较前值下降 0.3 个百分点，位于临界点；综 合 PMI 产出指数为 50.6%，较前值上升 0.1 个百分点，表明我国经济总体产 出扩张略有加快。 总的来看，9 月 PMI 数据呈现"制造业延续回升、非制造业增长放缓"的 组合，较 7 月的"双弱"和 8 月的"制造业磨底、非制造业温和修复"仍 有边际改善，我们预计三季度 GDP 实际同比可能低于 5%。 9 月制造业：供需两端回暖，价格剪刀差走阔 供需方面：9 月生产指数为 51.9%，比上月上升 1.1 个百分点，升至近 6 个 月高点，制造业生产活动较为活跃；新订单指数为 49.7%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，市场需求景气度有所改善。新出口订单为 47.8%，比上月上升 0.6 个百分点，外需仍在低位徘徊。 价格方面：主要原材料购进价格指数为 53.2%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点， 且连续 3 个月运行在扩张区间。出厂价 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [4] Core Insights - The building materials industry saw a significant improvement in net profit in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, while revenue decreased by 5.9% to 270.9 billion yuan [12][9] - The cement and fiberglass sectors performed particularly well, with cement profits increasing by 1487% year-on-year in H1 2025 [38][41] - The report indicates that the traditional demand remains weak, but profit growth is driven by price and cost improvements in certain building materials, as well as increased demand for emerging materials [12][9] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In H1 2025, the building materials industry achieved a total revenue of 270.9 billion yuan, down 5.9% year-on-year, while net profit reached 14.3 billion yuan, up 23.9% [12][9] - The second quarter saw a net profit growth of 30.2% compared to the first quarter, indicating a positive trend [12][9] 2. Subsector Performance - **Cement**: Revenue of 118.1 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 7.7% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 1487% to 5.2 billion yuan [41][38] - **Consumer Building Materials**: Revenue of 66.9 billion yuan, down 3.8%, with net profit declining by 12.8% [41][38] - **Fiberglass**: Revenue increased by 20.8% to 10.4 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 127% [41][38] - **New Materials**: The electronic materials sector showed significant growth, benefiting from high demand in computing power [41][38] 3. Investment Recommendations - Key stocks recommended include Zhongcai Technology, Huaxin Cement, and China Jushi, among others, with various ratings from "Buy" to "Hold" based on their performance and market conditions [8][41]