Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the penetration rate of L2 and above assisted driving in China, which increased from 3.3% in 2019 to 63.6% by July 2025 [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and robotics in the automotive sector, particularly focusing on Tesla's advancements in autonomous driving and robotaxi services [3][9] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the automotive sector, particularly in companies with strong positions in intelligent driving and robotics [5] Summary by Sections Section: Autonomous Driving - The report notes that L2-level NOA penetration has reached a high level, while L3-level autonomous driving is still in the early stages, presenting a favorable investment window [4] - The penetration rate of L3/L4 autonomous driving is expected to see significant growth, with new models from companies like Huawei, Li Auto, and XPeng leading the charge [15] Section: Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the parts sector include "Nexteer" and "Bertel" for their advantages in specific segments [5] - In the complete vehicle sector, "XPeng Motors," "Li Auto," and "Seres" are recommended for their rapid progress in smart technology [5] Section: Financial Projections - XPeng Motors is projected to achieve revenues of 935.9 billion, 1402.2 billion, and 1695.8 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 129%, 50%, and 21% [32][33] - Seres is expected to generate revenues of 1796.6 billion, 2179.6 billion, and 2459.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 23.75%, 21.32%, and 12.86% [60][61]

Group 1 - The report highlights that industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years tend to continue this trend, with defensive sectors like environmental protection, public utilities, and transportation being more prone to long-term underperformance [1][31][34] - The report identifies that leading companies in the public utility and environmental sectors have benefited from a revaluation of their dividend asset attributes in a low-interest-rate environment, which enhances their competitive advantages [1][32] - Industries currently experiencing prolonged underperformance, such as beauty care, basic chemicals, and social services, are nearing their historical maximum underperformance cycles [1][34] Group 2 - The report indicates that sectors with a high probability of outperforming in the fourth year after three years of underperformance include food and beverage, agriculture, social services, pharmaceutical biology, and electrical equipment [1][34] - The report notes that the agricultural bank has shown stable revenue growth, with a 2.0% year-on-year increase in operating income for the first three quarters of the year, particularly in its gold market performance [7] - The retail banking sector is advised to adjust its credit structure by reducing high-risk loans and focusing on more stable income-generating loans [8] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of the orthopedic consumables sector, which has shown significant improvement in revenue and profit margins, driven by market expansion and cost control [22] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas market expansion for companies in the orthopedic consumables sector, which is expected to become a key growth driver [22] - The report highlights that the automotive sector, particularly in vehicle-mounted power supplies, has seen substantial growth, with a 108.27% year-on-year increase in revenue for the third quarter [17]

证券研究报告 2025年11月09日 行业报告： 行业研究简报 医药生物 医药行业宏观月度运行数据跟踪（2025年9月）： 9月单月数据边际好转 作者： 分析师 杨松 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521020001 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要 ◆ 医药行业宏观月度运行数据跟踪（2025年9月）：9月单月数据边际好转 风险提示：宏观经济环境风险、政策风险、国内市场竞争风险 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 ◼ 卫生健康财政支出：2025年1-9月，国家财政对卫生健康的累计支出15712亿元，同比增长4.7%，增幅 超过全国一般公共预算支出整体增幅；卫生健康支出占全国一般公共预算支出比例为7.55%，在全国一 般公共预算支出主要支出科目中排第四位（按支出金额由大到小排序）。 ◼ 规模以上医药制造业营收/利润：2025年1-9月规模以上医药制造业累计营业收入和累计利润分别同比 下滑2.0%、0.7%，其中累计利润降幅较上月缩窄。 ◼ 规模以上医药制造业增加值：2025年1-9月规模以上医药制造业增加值累计同比+2.1%， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a volatile and weak - trending situation, with the long - end and short - end yields showing different trends. The long - end yields move up and down following multiple logics, while the short - end yields are at a low level and are weakly volatile. The central bank's bond - buying operation may open up the game space for long - term interest rates, but the "rush - ahead" market in the bond market from November to December this year may not necessarily reappear [1][5][6]. - The positioning of the central bank's national debt trading tool is becoming more diversified and three - dimensional, which is an important part of improving the micro - foundation of the bond market and enhancing pricing efficiency. The impact of the scale of bond - buying on liquidity is not the main factor, and the ultimate shape of the yield curve depends on the desired range, which is affected by market expectations, fundamental conditions, and institutional behavior [2][3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review: Bond Market Continues to Seek Direction - This week, the bond market showed a volatile and weak - trending market under the rapid switching of multiple pricing logics. The long - end yields first declined and then rose following the logics of "central bank's bond - buying implementation - stock market strength suppressing - expectation fermentation of the new regulations on fund sales fees implementation", while the short - end yields were at a low level, and the central bank's bond - buying had limited boosting effect, showing a weak - trending volatility. On Friday, the short - end yields continued to correct due to slightly tight funds [1][8]. - At the beginning of the week, the market was mainly pricing around the central bank's restart of bond - buying in October. After the implementation of national debt trading on Tuesday afternoon, the long - end yields first rose and then strengthened. On Wednesday afternoon, the trading logic switched to the "stock - bond seesaw", and the bond market was suppressed by the strong stock market. On Friday, the expectation of the new regulations on fund sales fees implementation dominated the bond market, and the tightened funds also dragged down the market [8]. 3.2 This Week's Focus: How to Price the Yield Curve with the Central Bank's Resumption of Bond - Buying? - On October 27, the central bank mentioned resuming national debt trading, with new information including directly linking national debt trading to guiding the yield curve shape, affirming the current bond market operation, emphasizing two - way trading operations, and believing that national debt trading is beneficial to the reform and development of the bond market and the improvement of financial institutions' market - making and pricing capabilities [2][10]. - In October, the central bank net - bought 20 billion yuan of national debt. There is no need to over - focus on the relationship between the bond - buying scale in October and the operation time. The scale of bond - buying does not have a major impact on liquidity. National debt trading may open up the game space for long - term interest rates, and the market's pricing of the resumption of bond - buying may be nearing the end [3][12][14]. - The scale of bond - buying affects the market through expectations. A higher scale can boost market confidence, while a limited scale may be a short - term negative factor. The final shape of the yield curve depends on the desired range, which is affected by market expectations of interest rate trends, fundamental repair conditions, and institutional behavior [4][15][17]. 3.3 Next Week's Concern: Will There Be a "Rush - Ahead" Market at the End of the Year? - Near the end of the year, the market is turning its attention to the cross - year allocation market. The "rush - ahead" market at the end of last year was the main driving force for the rapid decline of bond market interest rates. However, this year, there are differences. The sustainability of the purchases by allocation - oriented investors such as rural commercial banks, large - scale banks, and insurance companies remains to be observed, and the increase in the purchase scale of wealth management products and funds is mainly driven by the expansion of the liability side, not by the rapid decline of bond market interest rates [5][19]. - It is believed that the "rush - ahead" market in the bond market from November to December this year may not necessarily reappear. The purchases by allocation - oriented investors may be restricted by floating losses and the high - base effect of last year's performance. Additionally, the imagination space for loose monetary policy has shrunk compared to the end of last year [5][22]. 3.4 Outlook for the Future - If the stock market strengthens and concerns about the new fund regulations ferment, it will still suppress the bond market. However, the wave - like recovery of the fundamentals and the central bank's resumption of bond - buying limit the upward adjustment momentum of interest rates. The cross - year allocation market remains to be confirmed, but the game space for long - term interest rates may be opened up. One can try to seize trading opportunities for long - term interest rates but should respond cautiously with a volatile mindset [6][23]. - In terms of spread trading, the current bond - swapping market has generally ended. The further compression space of the "China Development Bank Bond - National Debt" spread needs to be continuously observed based on the purchasing momentum of allocation - oriented investors. The "deposit transfer" may make the scale of wealth management products resilient, and the purchasing power of wealth management products may support medium - and short - term credit bonds. One can focus on medium - and short - duration bonds with coupon value [6][23][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [2][57]. Core Insights - The orthopedic consumables sector has shown continuous improvement in performance during the first three quarters of 2025, with a positive trend in overseas expansion [3][10]. - The overall revenue of the orthopedic consumables sector increased by 17% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 81% [5][10]. - The gross profit margin for the sector improved to 66% in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting effective cost control and optimization [4][10]. - The trend of companies actively pursuing international markets is expected to become a significant growth driver [10][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Orthopedic Consumables Q3 2025 Report Analysis - The orthopedic consumables sector's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 49.18 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17% [9]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 67%, an increase of 2.06 percentage points compared to the previous year [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 doubled year-on-year, indicating significant performance improvement [10]. 2. Segment Analysis - The joint business segment has seen stable growth due to the continuation of centralized procurement and an increase in both volume and price for leading companies [19][24]. - The spinal segment is experiencing a steady execution of centralized procurement, with leading domestic brands increasing their market share [25]. - The trend of domestic companies expanding overseas is gaining momentum, with a focus on product innovation and international development [27][29]. 3. Related Company Q3 Report Summary - Major companies in the sector, such as Dabo Medical, Weigao Orthopedics, and Spring Medical, have shown strong revenue growth and profitability improvements in Q3 2025 [12][41][45]. - Dabo Medical reported a revenue of 18.76 billion, up 22.69% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.25 billion, reflecting a 77.03% increase [45]. - Spring Medical achieved a remarkable revenue growth of 109.5% in Q3 2025, turning a previous loss into a profit of 770.6 million [33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.6 billion in Q3 2025, representing an 81% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19% to 170 million [1]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, to capitalize on stable supply-demand dynamics and higher profit margins in the two-piece can industry [2]. - A strategic acquisition of COFCO Packaging was completed, enhancing the company's market position in the metal packaging sector and diversifying into high-quality business areas such as steel drums and plastic packaging [3]. - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 1.22 billion, 1.31 billion, and 1.41 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.4X, 11.6X, and 10.8X [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.3 billion, a 69% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.1 billion, up 41% [1]. - The financial data indicates a projected revenue growth of 74.11% in 2025, followed by modest growth rates of 4.35% and 5.52% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [5]. - The company's net profit is expected to grow at rates of 35.37%, 7.07%, and 7.83% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Insights - Anta's retail sales for its main brand and FILA brand showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, while other brands experienced a significant retail sales increase of 45% to 50% [1]. - The company opened over 300 new stores nationwide during the National Day holiday, including various specialized store formats to cater to different market segments [2]. - Anta has made technological advancements, launching China's first self-developed high-performance fluorine-free waterproof and moisture-permeable material, with plans to increase the proportion of sustainable products to 50% by 2030 [3]. - The HÉLÀ STYLED global tour has expanded Anta's presence in Europe, with successful events in major cities and a strategy to enhance online and offline market penetration [4]. - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 13.2 billion RMB, 15.2 billion RMB, and 17.1 billion RMB, reflecting a slight downward revision from previous estimates [5]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta's main brand and FILA brand retail sales showed low single-digit growth, while other brands saw a 45%-50% increase [1]. Store Expansion - Over 300 new stores were opened, including various specialized formats such as champion stores and children's stores [2]. Technological Innovation - Anta launched a new fluorine-free waterproof material and plans to increase sustainable product usage significantly by 2030 [3]. International Strategy - The HÉLÀ STYLED global tour has enhanced Anta's brand visibility in Europe, with a focus on both online and offline sales channels [4]. Financial Forecast - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 13.2 billion RMB, 15.2 billion RMB, and 17.1 billion RMB, with a PE ratio of 16/14/12x respectively [5].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Views - The swine sector continues to experience losses, with an increasing number of culled sows, indicating a need to focus on the expected recovery in this sector [2][13] - The dairy and beef sectors are undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a potential turning point for milk prices anticipated [3][15] - The pet sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and the rise of domestic brands, reshaping the competitive landscape [4][16] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding stock shortages and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][18] - The seed industry is poised for a turnaround, with an emphasis on biotechnology and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - The feed sector shows signs of recovery, with leading companies like Haida Group achieving revenue and profit growth [24][26] Summary by Sections Swine Sector - The industry continues to face losses, with the average price of live pigs at 12.02 CNY/kg, down 4.07% from the previous week [13] - The average market value per head for leading companies is at historical low levels, with Muyuan at 3000-3500 CNY/head and Wens at 2000-3000 CNY/head [14] - Recommended stocks include leading breeders like Muyuan and Wens, with additional focus on flexible stocks such as Shennong Group and Dekang Agriculture [14] Beef Sector - The price of beef cattle is showing signs of stabilization, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.62 CNY/kg [15] - The dairy cow population has decreased by 8%, indicating a significant capacity reduction [15] - Companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [15] Pet Sector - The Double Eleven shopping festival highlighted the resilience and structural upgrades in the pet food market, with domestic brands gaining market share [4][16] - Key recommendations include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on companies with technological advantages and comprehensive product lines [17] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is under pressure due to breeding stock shortages, with a focus on the impact of avian influenza on imports [18][19] - Yellow chicken prices are expected to improve due to supply constraints and increasing consumer demand [20] - Recommended stocks include leading companies like Shennong Development and Yisheng Biological [19] Seed Sector - The seed industry is expected to benefit from increased focus on food security and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - Key recommendations include leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [23] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with significant market share growth and revenue increases [24][26] - The overall feed market is expected to recover as smaller companies exit the market, leading to improved conditions for remaining players [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the bond market lacked a clear trading direction, and institutional behaviors remained stable overall. Large banks continued to focus on net - buying short - term bonds within 3 years, but the intensity declined. Funds showed a strong preference for credit bonds. Rural commercial banks took advantage of the bond market adjustment to make small - scale purchases. Looking ahead, the year - end "rush to allocate" seasonal market may not occur due to various constraints on banks and insurance companies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overall Sentiment: Slight Increase in Bond Market Vitality Index - As of November 7, the bond market vitality index rose 4 pcts to 22% compared to October 31, and the 5D - MA increased 3 pcts to 25% [1][12]. - Upward indicators included the trading volume of the active 10Y China Development Bank bond / balance of 9 - 10Y China Development Bank bonds (rolling two - year percentile rose from 42% to 69%) and the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate (rolling two - year percentile rose from 20% to 35%) [1][13]. - Downward indicators included the implied tax rate of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond (reverse) (rolling two - year percentile remained at 7%), the excess level of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio compared to the average of the past 4 years (rolling two - year percentile rose from 61% to 18%), and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds (rolling two - year percentile dropped from 84.0% to 82.1%) [1][14][16]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior: Continued Volatility in the Bond Market, Overall Stability in Institutional Behaviors 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Intensity and Bond Selection: Large Banks Continuously Buy Short - Term Bonds, Funds Focus on Credit Bonds - This week, the order of net buying intensity in the cash bond market was: other products > insurance > wealth management > large banks > money market funds > others > funds > rural financial institutions > foreign - funded banks. The order of net selling intensity was: city commercial banks > joint - stock commercial banks > securities firms. For ultra - long bonds (bonds with a maturity of over 15 years), the order of net buying intensity was: insurance > funds > other products > rural commercial banks > others > foreign - funded banks, and the order of net selling intensity was: large banks > joint - stock commercial banks > securities firms > city commercial banks > wealth management [22]. - The main bond types of various institutions were: large banks focused on 5 - 7Y interest - rate bonds; rural commercial banks focused on interest - rate bonds over 10Y; insurance focused on 1 - 3Y credit bonds and 7 - 10Y other bonds; funds focused on 3 - 5Y credit bonds; wealth management and other products had no obvious main bond types [26]. 3.2.2 Trading Portfolio: General Reduction in Duration of Various Types of Bond Funds - As of November 7, the mean and median durations of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased by 0.08 years and 0.09 years respectively compared to October 31, reaching 4.09 years and 3.75 years, and were at the 82.4% and 82.2% rolling two - year percentiles respectively. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds were - 0.13 years, + 0.01 years, and - 0.09 years respectively, reaching 5.04 years, 4.39 years, and 3.28 years. The median durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds decreased by 0.72 years and - 0.01 years respectively, reaching 1.90 years and 0.91 years [38][42]. 3.2.3 Allocation Portfolio: Large Banks Concentrate on Buying Interest - Rate Bonds within 3 Years - **Increased Primary Subscription Demand for Treasury Bonds and Policy - Financial Bonds, and Increased Demand for Ultra - Long Bonds**: This week, the weighted average full - market multiples of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds continued to rise from 2.93 to 3.13 times and from 3.21 to 3.25 times respectively. Among them, the weighted average full - market multiples of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds with a maturity of 10Y and above increased from 2.45 times to 5.08 times and from 3.02 times to 3.52 times respectively [56]. - **Large Banks**: As of November 7, the cumulative net purchase of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year reached 9173 billion yuan, exceeding the 8746 billion yuan at the end of November last year. Although large banks faced pressure from interest - rate risk indicator assessments, the constraints were expected to ease in the short term [62]. - **Rural Commercial Banks**: After increasing net selling of cash bonds in October, rural commercial banks made small - scale purchases this week. As of November 7, the cumulative net purchase of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y cash bonds this year was 9616 billion yuan and 805 billion yuan respectively [72][74]. - **Insurance**: As of November 7, the ratio of the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds this year to the cumulative premium income reached 52.96%, significantly higher than 44.51% at the end of November last year. The ratio of the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds to the cumulative issuance of government bonds over 10Y was 31.59%, significantly higher than 26.32% at the end of November last year [79]. - **Wealth Management**: Since June, the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds by wealth management has continued to rise, significantly higher than the levels of the past three years. As of November 7, the cumulative net purchase of bonds over 10Y this year was 1712 billion yuan [87]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking: Better Performance of Credit Bond Funds in the Past Week - Since October, the scale growth of stock funds and bond funds has been limited, with bond funds growing more slowly than stock funds. This week, 40.64 billion yuan of new bond funds were established, a significant decline from the previous week but at a relatively high level compared to October as a whole [91]. - In terms of bond fund performance, the net values of most interest - rate bond funds declined in the past week, while credit bond funds showed stronger resilience. The median annualized returns of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds in the past week were - 5.91%, - 4.57%, and 0.47% respectively, and most credit bond funds had positive returns in the past three months [91].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation data in October showed the characteristics of "warming CPI and improving PPI". The CPI turned from negative to positive year-on-year, and the core CPI reached a new high since March 2024. The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed, and the month-on-month increase was positive for the first time this year, reflecting the resonance of policies to expand domestic demand and the long - holiday effect, with both consumer and industrial product prices improving [1][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 10 - month CPI and PPI Data Overview - In October, the CPI was 0.2% year - on - year (previous value - 0.3%), 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%); the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year (previous value - 2.3%), 0.1% month - on - month (previous value 0.0%) [1][6] 2. Structural Highlights behind the Strong Core CPI - The continuous release of policies to expand domestic demand has increased residents' marginal propensity to consume and supported core prices. Under the "trade - in" policy, the prices of household appliances, cultural and entertainment durable goods, and household sundries increased by 2.4% - 5.0%, and the decline of fuel - powered car prices narrowed to 2.3% [2][7] - The "resilience" of service consumption is prominent. In October, service prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year, a major driver of the core CPI. Service consumption demand, represented by tourism and entertainment, continued to be released, and may gradually become a stabilizer for domestic demand growth. During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, hotel accommodation, air ticket, and tourism prices increased by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively, higher than seasonal levels [2][7] - Affected by international gold prices, domestic gold jewelry prices increased by 50.3% year - on - year, supporting industrial consumer goods prices [2][7] 3. Reasons for the First Positive Month - on - Month PPI in October - Positive aspects: The increase in upstream raw material prices was mainly driven by a 0.1% month - on - month increase in production material prices. The improvement in supply - demand relationships led to price increases in some industries, such as a 1.6% month - on - month increase in the coal mining and washing industry. Some industries, like computers and lithium batteries, saw price increases due to improved supply - demand patterns supported by industrial upgrading policies. International price increases in non - ferrous metals were transmitted to the domestic market, driving a 2.4% month - on - month increase in the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry [3][8] - Areas to improve: The month - on - month price of consumer goods was flat, and the year - on - year price still decreased by 1.4%, indicating that the recovery of terminal consumer demand lagged behind that of the upstream. The positive month - on - month increase in upstream raw material prices but slow recovery of downstream demand may squeeze the profit margins of mid - and downstream enterprises [3][8] 4. Implications of the Widening CPI - PPI Gap - In October, the CPI was 0.2% year - on - year, the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, and the gap was 2.3 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points wider than in September [4][9] - The year - on - year increase in CPI was mainly driven by service consumption and some industrial consumer goods, but this demand was not enough to fully absorb the industrial supply capacity, and industrial product prices were still in the negative range year - on - year. The widening gap means that the gross profit margins of mid - and downstream industries in the industrial chain, such as food processing, home appliances, and automobiles, are expected to improve [4][9]