金融工程 | 金工专题报告 2025 年 05 月 31 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 何青青 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110520080008 heqingqing@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-大模型总结 和解读行业研报（ 2025W21 ）》 2025-05-26 2 《金融工程：金融工程-量化择时周 报：继续等待缩量》 2025-05-25 3 《金融工程：金融工程-基金风格配 置监控周报：权益基金本周上调大盘股 票仓位》 2025-05-25 金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 6 月重点指数调样会带来哪些投资机会 指数样本调入带来的被动交易将对被调入股票产生正面价格影响。尤其是 规模较大的指数，其调样带来的被动交易资金也越大，被调入股票的投资 机会也可能越大。因此，我们需要重点关注跟踪规模较大指数的调样。 过去九期指数调入影响预测及股价表现回顾 我们分别对 2020 年 12 月以来重点指数成份股调整的影响系数进行了预 测，并跟踪综合影响较大个股的股价走势。 过去九期调样事件 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 32.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.9%, while adjusted net profit was 4.58 billion RMB, up 4.4% year-on-year [1] - The average Daily Active Users (DAU) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) for the company's application were 408 million and 712 million respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.6% and 2.1% [2] - The AI model "Keling" generated over 150 million RMB in revenue in Q1 2025, indicating accelerated commercialization [3] - Online marketing service revenue reached 18 billion RMB, growing 8% year-on-year, driven mainly by external marketing services [4] - Other service revenue, including e-commerce, grew 15.2% to 4.8 billion RMB, with e-commerce GMV increasing 15.4% to 332.3 billion RMB [5] - Live streaming revenue was 9.8 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.4% [6] - Overseas revenue grew 32.7% to 1.3 billion RMB, with the company achieving positive operating profit for the first time in a quarter [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 32.6 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit at 4.58 billion RMB, and gross profit at 17.8 billion RMB, all showing positive year-on-year growth [1] User Metrics - DAU and MAU reached 408 million and 712 million respectively, with daily usage time per DAU at 133.8 minutes, indicating a healthy user engagement [2] AI Development - The Keling AI model's 2.0 version was launched, achieving significant revenue and enhancing the company's content and commercial ecosystems [3] Marketing Services - Online marketing services generated 18 billion RMB, with strong growth in external marketing, particularly in content consumption and local life sectors [4] E-commerce and Other Services - Other services revenue grew to 4.8 billion RMB, with e-commerce GMV reaching 332.3 billion RMB, supported by a significant increase in new merchants [5] Live Streaming - Live streaming revenue was 9.8 billion RMB, with a notable increase in the number of signed agencies and streamers [6] International Expansion - Overseas revenue reached 1.3 billion RMB, marking a significant growth and the first quarter of positive operating profit [7]

公司报告 | 季报点评 上声电子（688533） 证券研究报告 24 年业绩稳步增长，25Q1 业绩承压 2024 年业绩稳步增长，25Q1 业绩承压。 2024 年公司实现营业收入 27.76 亿元，同比+19.32%；归母净利润 2.35 亿， 同比+47.92%；扣非归母净利润 1.89 亿，同比+21.00%。②2025Q1 公司实 现营业收入 6.36 亿元，同比+6.40%；归母净利润 0.27 亿元，同比-53.27%； 扣非归母净利润 0.24 亿元，同比-43.03%。③公司 2024 年毛利率 25.13%， 同比-0.35pct；24 年销售净利率 8.42%，同比+1.59pct。2025Q1 公司销售毛 利率为 20.62%，同比-4.05pct。④2025Q1 销售费用率为 0.82%，管理费用 率为 7.85%，研发费用率为 7.10%，财务费用率为-0.60%。 分业务看，2024 年营收增加，产品线具备扩大空间。 2024 年，扬声器营收 20.50 亿元，同比+10.84%，主要产品销量保持稳健 增长。功放营收 5.34 亿元，同比+47.97%，占比 19.23%；AVA ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 32.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.9%, while adjusted net profit was 4.58 billion RMB, up 4.4% year-on-year [1] - The average Daily Active Users (DAU) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) for the company's application were 408 million and 712 million respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.6% and 2.1% [2] - The AI model "Keling" generated over 150 million RMB in revenue in Q1 2025, indicating accelerated commercialization [3] - Online marketing service revenue reached 18 billion RMB, growing 8% year-on-year, driven mainly by external marketing services [4] - Other service revenue, including e-commerce, grew 15.2% to 4.8 billion RMB, with e-commerce GMV increasing 15.4% to 332.3 billion RMB [5] - Live streaming revenue was 9.8 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.4% [6] - Overseas revenue grew 32.7% to 1.3 billion RMB, with the company achieving positive operating profit for the first time in a quarter [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 32.6 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit at 4.58 billion RMB, and gross profit at 17.8 billion RMB, all showing positive year-on-year growth [1] User Metrics - DAU and MAU reached 408 million and 712 million respectively, with daily usage time averaging 133.8 minutes per user, indicating a healthy user engagement [2] AI Development - The Keling AI model's 2.0 version was launched, achieving significant revenue and enhancing the company's content and commercial ecosystems [3] Marketing Services - Online marketing services generated 18 billion RMB, with strong growth in external marketing, particularly in content consumption and local life sectors [4] E-commerce and Other Services - Other services revenue grew to 4.8 billion RMB, with e-commerce GMV reaching 332.3 billion RMB, supported by a significant increase in new merchants [5] Live Streaming - Live streaming revenue was 9.8 billion RMB, with a notable increase in the number of signed agencies and streamers [6] International Expansion - Overseas revenue reached 1.3 billion RMB, marking a significant growth and the first quarter of positive operating profit [7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Qianli Technology, setting a target price of 11.06 CNY, representing a potential upside of 33.6% from the current price of 8.28 CNY [6][58]. Core Insights - Qianli Technology, formerly known as Lifan Technology, is undergoing a significant transformation towards AI and smart vehicle integration, particularly after the entry of founder Yin Qi from Megvii Technology [1][2]. - The company is leveraging partnerships with Geely and Cao Cao Mobility to enhance its smart driving capabilities and develop a comprehensive ecosystem for autonomous vehicles [3][36]. - Financial projections indicate substantial growth in net profit, with expected figures of 0.81 billion CNY, 1.33 billion CNY, and 2.36 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 101.2%, 64.6%, and 78.4% [3][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Management Changes and Strategic Transformation - Qianli Technology has evolved from Lifan Technology, which was established in 1992, initially focusing on motorcycle engines and later expanding into passenger vehicles [1][13]. - The company underwent two major restructurings, with Geely and the Chongqing Liangjiang Fund becoming significant stakeholders post-bankruptcy in 2020, facilitating a shift towards AI-driven automotive solutions [1][16]. - In 2024, the company rebranded to Qianli Technology, emphasizing its commitment to smart vehicle technology and international expansion [1][19]. 2. AI and Smart Driving Strategy - The partnership with Geely has led to the development of the "Qianli Haohan" smart driving system, which aims to provide a full-stack technology ecosystem for autonomous driving [2][28]. - Qianli Technology is collaborating with Cao Cao Mobility to launch Robotaxi services, marking a significant step in the commercialization of autonomous driving in China [3][36]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities, particularly in large model applications, to improve smart cockpit solutions and user interaction [48][51]. 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation Analysis - Revenue projections for Qianli Technology indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 8.33 billion CNY, 10.02 billion CNY, and 12.44 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 18.4%, 20.3%, and 24.1% [53][54]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve, reaching 9.99%, 10.66%, and 11.08% over the same period, driven by economies of scale [54]. - The valuation analysis suggests a price-to-sales ratio of 6x for 2025, aligning with comparable companies in the smart driving and Robotaxi sectors [56][58].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 54.31 CNY based on a PE of 20 for 2025 [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has established itself as a leading supplier of photovoltaic conductive pastes, with a focus on low-silver and high-copper paste solutions, which are expected to drive growth in the coming years [3][13]. - The transition from PERC to N-type TOPCon technology in 2024 presents a significant opportunity for the company, as it has a first-mover advantage in developing conductive pastes for this new technology [2][34]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 164 billion CNY in 2025 and 210 billion CNY in 2027, alongside a steady increase in net profit [4][64]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 96 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 155%, and is expected to reach 154 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 60% increase [1][4]. - The gross margin has remained stable around 10%, with net profit margins showing fluctuations, expected to be 3.9% in 2023 and 2.2% in 2024 [1][4]. - R&D expenses accounted for 3.2% and 3.1% of total revenues in 2023 and 2024, respectively, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [1][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing shift in the photovoltaic conductive paste market, where domestic manufacturers are gaining market share from international players, with a projected market share of 82% by 2024 for leading domestic companies [2][30]. - The introduction of high-copper paste solutions is part of the company's strategy to reduce costs and improve efficiency in the photovoltaic industry, which is under pressure to lower production costs [3][40]. - The company has developed a unique low-silver metallization solution that combines seed layer paste with high-copper paste, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the market [3][51].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Qianli Technology, targeting a price of 11.06 CNY, representing a potential upside of 33.6% from the current price of 8.28 CNY [6][58]. Core Insights - Qianli Technology, formerly known as Lifan Technology, is undergoing a significant transformation towards AI and smart vehicle integration, particularly after the entry of founder Yin Qi from Megvii Technology [1][2]. - The company is leveraging partnerships with Geely and Cao Cao Mobility to enhance its smart driving capabilities and develop a comprehensive ecosystem for autonomous vehicles [3][36]. - Financial projections indicate substantial growth in net profit, with expected figures of 0.81 billion CNY, 1.33 billion CNY, and 2.36 billion CNY for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 101.2%, 64.6%, and 78.4% respectively [3][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Management Changes and Strategic Transformation - Qianli Technology has evolved from Lifan Technology, which was established in 1992, initially focusing on motorcycle engines and later expanding into passenger vehicles [1][13]. - The company underwent two major restructurings, with Geely and the Chongqing Liangjiang Fund becoming significant stakeholders post-bankruptcy in 2020, leading to a strategic pivot towards AI and smart vehicles [1][16]. - In 2024, the company rebranded to Qianli Technology, emphasizing its commitment to smart and international development [1][19]. 2. AI and Smart Driving Strategy - The partnership with Geely has enabled Qianli Technology to develop the "Qianli Haohan" smart driving system, which encompasses various levels of autonomous driving capabilities [2][28]. - The company is also collaborating with Cao Cao Mobility to launch Robotaxi services, marking a significant step in the commercialization of autonomous driving in China [3][36]. - Qianli Technology is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities, particularly in large model applications and smart cockpit solutions, to improve user interaction and vehicle intelligence [48][51]. 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation Analysis - Revenue projections for Qianli Technology indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 8.33 billion CNY, 10.02 billion CNY, and 12.44 billion CNY for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 18.4%, 20.3%, and 24.1% respectively [53][54]. - The company's gross margin is anticipated to improve, reaching 9.99%, 10.66%, and 11.08% over the same period [54]. - Valuation comparisons with peers in the smart driving and Robotaxi sectors suggest a favorable outlook, with a target market capitalization of 500 billion CNY by 2025 [56][58].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has received approval for construction, with an estimated investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan, an installed capacity of approximately 60 million kilowatts, and an annual power generation capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to more than three Three Gorges power stations [1][11] - The project is classified as a key investment project by the National Development and Reform Commission, emphasizing the importance of its construction [1][11] - The report highlights investment opportunities in construction segments such as diversion construction, blasting, foundation treatment, dam construction, and corresponding material usage [1][11] Summary by Sections Construction Segment - The estimated investment for the Yarlung Tsangpo downstream hydropower project is 1,026.1 billion yuan, with civil engineering accounting for about 60%, electromechanical equipment for about 30%, and reservoir compensation fees for about 10% [2] - Key companies to focus on include China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering for main design and construction [2] - The foundation treatment segment is expected to require an investment of approximately 61-93 billion yuan due to the complex geological environment [2] - The project will need about 25 Tunnel Boring Machines (TBM), with an estimated investment of 5-7.5 billion yuan for TBM equipment [2][20] - The total demand for explosives in the blasting segment is expected to exceed 1 million tons, with a focus on companies like Gaozheng Minexplosion and Yipuli [2][21] Material Segment - The project is expected to generate a demand for 54 million tons of cement over a 15-year construction period, translating to an annual average demand of 3.6 million tons [3] - Key companies in the cement sector include Tibet Tianlu and Huaxin Cement, with a focus on the water-reducing agent market involving Subote [3] Key Company Recommendations - China Power Construction (601669.SH): Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 0.70 in 2024 to 0.91 in 2027 [8] - China Energy Engineering (601868.SH): Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 0.20 in 2024 to 0.24 in 2027 [8] - Gaozheng Minexplosion (002827.SZ): Hold rating with projected EPS growth from 0.54 in 2024 to 2.05 in 2027 [8] - Tibet Tianlu (600326.SH): Hold rating with projected EPS growth from -0.08 in 2024 to 0.37 in 2027 [8] - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH): Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 1.16 in 2024 to 1.96 in 2027 [8] - Subote (603916.SH): Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 0.22 in 2024 to 0.72 in 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - Since the LPR reform, multiple factors have led to a continuous decline in net interest margins (NIM), with the NIM dropping by 77 basis points to 1.43% as of Q1 2025 compared to the end of 2019 [1][10] - The current rigid bottom line for NIM is estimated to be 0.67%, indicating that many banks are scoring between 60-100 points under the EPA assessment [2][44] - The NIM is expected to continue a "L-shaped" trend in 2025, with an overall decline of approximately 10 basis points to 1.42% [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Decline in Net Interest Margin - The NIM has been on a downward trajectory since the LPR reform, with a significant drop observed during the pandemic and subsequent economic pressures [1][10] - The decline can be attributed to five main factors: differences in loan and deposit pricing mechanisms, multiple measures promoting lower loan rates, insufficient effective demand, structural changes in retail loan issuance, and chaotic competition leading to significant deviations in interest rates [1][18] 2. Measurement of NIM's Critical Point - The EPA assessment imposes external regulatory constraints on NIM, with a scoring system that categorizes banks based on their NIM performance [2][44] - The sustainable operating critical point for banks is defined as the minimum NIM level that allows for asset expansion while releasing all financial safety cushions [2][49] 3. NIM Trends in 2025 - The NIM is projected to exhibit a "downward trend" in 2025, with a notable decline in the first quarter followed by slight decreases or stabilization in the subsequent quarters [3][4] - Factors influencing this trend include the repricing of existing loans, spontaneous declines in new loan pricing, and adjustments in deposit rates [3][4] 4. Maintaining Bank System Health - The NIM safety cushion is expected to rebound to 75 basis points, providing some room for future interest rate cuts [4] - The central bank is likely to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate reductions to ensure the health of the banking system, suggesting that the declines in loan and deposit rates will not be significant [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is accelerating the elimination of backward and inefficient production capacity, leading to price increases in caprolactam and acrylic acid [1][13] - The basic chemical sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.99% compared to a 0.18% drop in the index, ranking 19th among all sectors [4][16] - Key chemical products have shown varied price movements, with notable increases in TDI, acetic acid, pure MDI, and others, while some products like VE and VA have seen declines [2][25] Summary by Sections 1. Key News Tracking - The NDRC's recent meeting emphasized innovation-driven industrial transformation, local constraints to eliminate protectionism, optimization of industrial layout, and strict market regulation to address low-quality market phenomena [1][13] 2. Product Price Tracking - WTI oil price decreased by 1.5% to $61.53 per barrel - Key chemical products with price increases include butadiene (+19.1%), liquid oxygen (+13.5%), and phosphorite (+11.6%) [2][28] - Caprolactam prices increased due to recovering supply and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream manufacturers [2][3] 3. Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector's PB ratio is 1.96, while the overall A-share market's PB is 1.45; the PE ratio for the basic chemical sector is 23.66 compared to 14.98 for the overall market [23][24] - The sector's performance is characterized by significant price fluctuations among various products, with 51 products increasing and 101 decreasing in price this week [25][30] 4. Focused Sub-industry Insights - The report suggests focusing on industries with stable demand and supply, such as refrigerants, phosphates, and amino acids, while also highlighting sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics like MDI and organic silicon [5][18]