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信用策略周报20251012:关税2.0,信用会压利差吗?-20251013
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-13 11:14
Group 1 - The credit market experienced a recovery in the first week after the holiday, with yields on credit bonds across all maturities declining, particularly 2-5 year perpetual bonds leading the gains [1][8] - Long-term credit bonds continued to show weak performance, with credit spreads widening, especially for long-term urban investment bonds [1][8] - The market is currently assessing whether credit can continue to catch up with interest rates and if credit spreads will compress further [1][8] Group 2 - The recent tariff disturbances have led to increased market risk aversion, benefiting the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield declining approximately 16 basis points over two trading days [2][16] - Short-term credit bonds have generally outperformed interest rate bonds, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads, while longer credit bonds have shown weaker performance [2][16] - The impact of the recent tariff upgrades on the bond market appears to be weaker than earlier in April, with significant uncertainty remaining [2][24] Group 3 - The current tariff disturbances may provide trading opportunities in the bond market, but the overall pricing space is expected to be smaller than the previous tariff shocks [3][28] - The execution of credit strategies should consider the limited space for interest rate declines, with the 10-year government bond yield assessed at a low of 1.70% [3][28] - The credit market is expected to see some seasonal recovery in October, with public funds showing renewed buying interest in perpetual bonds [3][29] Group 4 - The funding environment remains supportive, but the main buying power in the credit market is unlikely to expand significantly in the fourth quarter due to regulatory factors [4][28] - The new regulations on fund sales may introduce redemption friction, impacting credit spreads [4][28] - Mid-term credit bonds are currently viewed as a more suitable asset choice for institutions, especially after the market correction in September [4][28]
板块回调下坚定看好明年有望迎来端侧AI大年
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-13 05:36
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [9] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upcoming year, anticipating a significant growth year for edge AI, particularly with the emergence of AI glasses as a key product form and flow entry point [1][16] - Apple is expected to launch its first smart glasses in 2026, with leadership changes potentially enhancing hardware and AI integration innovation [2][18] - Meta's AI glasses have seen sales growth exceeding expectations, indicating strong market demand and potential for further product launches [3][19][21] - OpenAI is developing a series of edge AI devices, with a focus on consumer electronics supply chain opportunities [4][24] Summary by Sections Edge AI - Edge AI is gaining traction with significant policy support and leading companies driving innovation in new products [1][16] - Apple is restructuring its product lineup with the iPhone 17 series and is expected to enter the foldable phone market in 2026, which could catalyze industry growth [2][16] - Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses have seen a sales increase of over 200% year-on-year, with potential shipments reaching 4-5 million units in 2025 [3][19] - Rokid's smart glasses are being utilized by local police for vehicle identification, showcasing practical applications of AI glasses [5][22] - DJI has adjusted pricing for its Osmo Pocket 3, indicating preparation for the launch of a new generation product [5][23] - OpenAI is working on various edge AI devices, including a screenless smart speaker, with a target release by the end of 2026 or early 2027 [4][24] - Luxshare Precision is showcasing its leadership in AR technology with multiple product launches and innovations in optical interconnect solutions [4][25][29] Cloud AI - The report highlights the strong growth potential in the cloud AI sector, driven by domestic computing power and supply-demand dynamics [6][31] - OpenAI's developer conference showcased significant growth in user engagement and revolutionary technology releases, reshaping AI interaction [6][31] - OpenAI has introduced ChatGPT Pulse, enhancing user experience through personalized updates based on interactions [6][38] - Alibaba's cloud conference emphasized the future of AI and its role in creating a new generation of computing platforms [6][39][41] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the consumer electronics supply chain, including Luxshare Precision, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the growth in edge AI and related technologies [7][9]
九兴控股(01836):扩充海外基地优化客户组合
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-13 04:22
港股公司报告 | 公司点评 九兴控股(01836) 证券研究报告 扩充海外基地优化客户组合 公司发布半年报 25H1 公司收入增长 0.7%至 7.75 亿美元(24H1:7.7 亿美元);出货量增长 3.8%至 2750 万双(24H1:2650 万双),主要是由运动类别推动,尽管 24H1 出货量较高。 公司鞋履平均售价减少 3.2%至每双 27.4 美元(24H1:每双 28.3 美元),由 于平均售价较低的运动产品订单占比较高所致。 在产品类别方面,公司运动类销售额增长 8.2%,占制造总收入 48.5%(24H1: 45.1%),受益于公司向最大运动客户及其他现有运动客户出货量增长,以 及与一家新运动客户成功合作为其推出全新系列及款式。 公司平均售价水平相近的时尚及奢华类别的收入合共减少 3.5%(分别减少 2.6%及 6.2%),分别占制造总收入 25.4%及 7.8%(24H1:26.2%及 8.4%), 乃由于基数较高,以及公司产能分配上作出优化。 为配合三年规划的策略,公司继续将产能调配至发展其他产品类别,因此 休闲类别的收入减少 9.2%,并占制造总收入 18.3%(24H1:20.3%) ...
华鲁恒升(600426):归母净利润同比上行,多项目完成投产
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-13 01:42
公司报告 | 半年报点评 华鲁恒升(600426) 证券研究报告 归母净利润同比上行,多项目完成投产 事件:华鲁恒升发布 2025 年中报,上半年公司实现营业收入 157.64 亿元, 同比-7.1%,实现归母净利润 15.69 亿元,同比-29.5%。其中第二季度实现 营业收入 79.92 亿元,同比-11.2%,环比+2.8%,实现归母净利润 8.62 亿元, 同比-25.6%,环比+21.9%。 收入利润环比改善,毛利率环比提升,二季度从历史谷底走出 公司第二季度营业收入 79.92 亿元,归母净利润 8.62 亿元,环比一季度分 别+2.8%和+21.9%,均出现回升,二季度毛利率 19.6%,环比一季度提升 3.3PCT,盈利能力的恢复,伴随收入的增长,使得公司净利润环比一季度 实现高增,二季度盈利水平从历史谷底走出。 盈利预测:产品价格变动影响,我们调整公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润预 期至 29.98/43.08/43.99 亿元(25-26 年前值为 41.16/42.96 亿元),维持"增 持"评级。 风险提示:全球经济增长不确定性风险;化工企业安全生产风险;产品价 格和原材料价格波 ...
1-8月化学原料和化学制品制造业实现利润总额2460.8亿元,双氧水、氢氟酸价格上涨
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-13 01:16
基础化工 证券研究报告 1-8 月化学原料和化学制品制造业实现利润总额 2460.8 亿元,双氧水、氢氟酸价格上涨 上周指 25 年 9 月 29 日-10 月 5 日(下同),本周指 25 年 10 月 6-12 日(下同)。 本周重点新闻跟踪 9 月 27 日,国家统计局发布数据,1—8 月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总 额 46929.7 亿元,同比增长 0.9%。其中,石油和天然气开采业企业利润总额 2364.7 亿元,同比下降 12.4%,化学原料和化学制品制造业企业利润总额 2460.8 亿元,同 比下降 5.5%。 本周重点产品价格跟踪点评 本周 WTI 油价下跌 3.3%,为 58.9 美元/桶。 重点关注子行业:本周纯 MDI/醋酸/有机硅/钛白粉/DMF 价格分别上涨 1.1%/1.1%/0.9%/0.8%/0.6%;VE/尿素/聚合 MDI/乙二醇/TDI/乙烯法 PVC/液体蛋氨酸/ 电石法 PVC/固体蛋氨酸/烧碱价格分别下跌 5.9%/3.1%/2.5%/2%/1.5%/0.8%/0.6%/0.5%/ 0.5%/0.3%;VA/橡胶/轻质纯碱/粘胶长丝/氨纶/重质纯碱/粘胶短纤 ...
天风证券晨会集萃-20251013
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-13 00:12
Group 1 - The current gold bull market has just initiated the most elastic range for gold stocks, with the Wande Gold Industry Index rising by 38% from August 22, 2025, to September 30, 2025, while the price increase is less than previous bull markets [1][26][27] - Gold stocks tend to amplify their volatility in sync with gold prices, often experiencing price increases that are three times greater than the increase in spot gold prices [1][28] - Valuation metrics suggest that market capitalization per unit of production is more suitable for evaluating gold stocks during rapid price increases, as traditional PE ratios may distort due to the rapid rise in EPS [1][28] Group 2 - The precious metals sector continues to show an upward trend, and it is recommended to maintain positions in this sector [3][35] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to show moderate recovery, with manufacturing PMI indicating slight improvements, although still in contraction territory [4][6] - The anticipated economic growth rates for the third and fourth quarters are approximately 4.8% and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively [6] Group 3 - The solid-state battery equipment sector faces challenges related to isostatic pressing technology, which is crucial for improving battery performance and mass production [9][18] - Leading companies in the solid-state battery equipment field, such as Nakanor and AVIC, are focusing on key technologies, although the equipment remains in the R&D and validation stages [9][18] Group 4 - The airline industry is experiencing a surge in inbound tourism, with a 52% increase in foreign visitors from January to August 2025, driven by optimized visa policies [18][19] - The expected growth in inbound tourism is likely to improve supply-demand dynamics in the airline sector, potentially leading to an increase in ticket prices [18][19]
科技当自立,聚焦三大主线
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-12 14:12
Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the acceleration of domestic software localization in response to global technology competition and supply chain security demands, indicating that domestic software has the capability to replace foreign counterparts [1][2] - The ecosystem for basic software is rapidly improving, with significant advancements in operating systems and application software localization rates, particularly in ERP software, which has reached a localization rate of 70% [2] - Quantum technology is highlighted as a critical area for national strategic development, with significant investments and policy support from the government, positioning it as a key future industry [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Software Localization - The report notes that key basic software is becoming increasingly self-sufficient, with domestic software showing strong potential for rapid localization [1] - As of 2022, the number of adaptations for operating systems like Tongxin Software and Kirin Software has reached over 530,000 and 440,000 respectively [2] Application Software Localization - The report identifies that while the localization rate for management software (ERP) is at 70%, there is still room for improvement in other areas such as manufacturing software (50%) and R&D design software (10%) [2] Quantum Technology - The report discusses the implications of quantum computing advancements, particularly in relation to national security and information safety, as major companies like Google and IBM are making significant strides in this field [3] - The Chinese government has initiated over 100 supporting policies to promote the development of quantum technology, indicating its strategic importance [3] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in self-sufficiency in software and hardware, including operating systems, chips, industrial software, and quantum technology [4]
具身智能产业亿元级订单频现,重点关注产业链龙头奥比中光、柯力传感
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-12 13:50
上市公司与地方政策双发力,助推产业生态落地成型 随着具身智能技术逐渐走向落地,产业链各环节的资本与技术力量正迅速聚拢,而上市公司则 在纷纷锚定自身优势,在产业链各环节加速卡位。领益智造宣布已与智元机器人、北京人形机 器人创新中心及浙江强脑科技达成战略合作,获得国内外人形机器人客户硬件订单;埃斯顿自 动化发布的第二代人形机器人 Codroid02 正进行工业场景小批量验证;中超控股则与合肥智 能机器人研究院签署战略协议,在航空航天高温合金、机器人专用电缆等领域联合研发,推动 材料和线缆系统国产替代。与此同时,区域政策正为产业提供系统支撑。自 2025 年"具身智 能"被首次写入《政府工作报告》后,多地积极响应:上海市政府发布《具身智能产业发展实 施方案》,提出到 2027 年实现具身模型、具身语料等核心算法技术突破 20 项以上。北京亦庄 国家级具身智能机器人创新中心已集聚超过 300 家智能制造企业。市场规模的快速扩张则印 证了现今的行业潜力。《2025 人形机器人与具身智能产业研究报告》显示,2025 年,中国具 身智能市场规模预计达 52.95 亿元,占全球约 27%;人形机器人市场规模预计达 82.39 ...
嘉曼服饰(301276):暇步士男女装占比逐步提升
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-12 13:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [5] Core Views - The company has shown a gradual increase in the revenue contribution from its self-operated Hush Puppies men's and women's clothing line, which reached 22.87% in the first half of 2025, with expectations to grow to 10.06% by the end of 2024 [1] - The financial performance for the first half of 2025 indicates a revenue of 500 million yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 31% to 60 million yuan [1] - The company has acquired full-category IP assets of the Hush Puppies brand in mainland China and Hong Kong, enhancing its brand matrix and market presence [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 1.14 billion, 1.21 billion, and 1.30 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 140 million, 160 million, and 190 million yuan [3] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 19x, 17x, and 15x respectively [3] - The financial data indicates a slight revenue growth of 0.76% in 2023, followed by a projected decline of 4.57% in 2024, and a recovery with 4.05% growth in 2025 [4] Brand and Market Position - The Hush Puppies brand, established in 1958, has become the company's main proprietary brand following the acquisition of its IP assets [2] - The company also operates other well-known brands, including children's clothing brand "Water Child" and the licensed brand "Hazzys," which reflects a diverse brand matrix [2]
海外时政点评:关税升级:4月重现orTACO交易
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-12 13:42
固定收益 | 固定收益点评 关税升级:4 月重现 or TACO 交易 证券研究报告 海外时政点评 特朗普提出对华征收 100%关税,打破中美关税"平静期"。 当地时间 10 月 10 日,特朗普在社交媒体发帖,称将从 11 月 1 日开始对 中国征收 100%的关税,并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。 9 月中下旬,市场对中美关税的情绪偏乐观,对中美元首在 10 月底的 APEC 会议上会晤怀有期待,9 月 14-15 日的马德里经贸会谈,中美就 TikTok 等 问题进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的沟通,9 月 19 日中美元首通话,通 话是务实、积极、建设性的。 而国庆假期后,情绪有所转变。中方宣布对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅料、 钬等 5 种中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制; 对美国对造船等行业 301 调查限制措施实施反制;对高通公司开展反垄断 调查等。特朗普宣布计划对中国商品征收 100%关税。 关税和贸易谈判,后续或如何演绎? 我们认为,不断升级的贸易措施计划,或是为未来的谈判增加筹码。中方 加强对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅料等的出口管制,是从 11 月 8 日实施; 而特朗普宣称的 ...