房地产 证券研究报告/行业研究周报 2024 年 7 月 28 日 [Table_Main] 评级：增持（维持） 分析师：由子沛 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 分析师：李垚 执业证书编号：S0740520110003 Email：liyao01@zts.com.cn 分析师：侯希得 执业证书编号：S0740523080001 Email：houxd@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 上市公司数 107 行业总市值(亿元) 10,845.04 行业流通市值(亿元) 4,979.85 [Table_QuotePic] 行业-市场走势对比 (60.00) (40.00) (20.00) - 20.00 沪深300 申万房地产 23-0523-0723-0923-1124-0124-0324-0524-07 公司持有该股票比例 [Table_Report] 相关报告 、 多地进一步优化公积金政策，一手房成交同比改善 -行业研究周报 [Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 [房地产行业周报 Table_Summary] - ...

美股中报期在即，建议关注海外科技走势 电子 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024 年 7 月 28 日 评级：增持（维持） 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 分析师：杨旭 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 Email：yangxu01@zts.com.cn 分析师：李雪峰 执业证书编号：S0740522080004 Email：lixf05@zts.com.cn 分析师：游凡 执业证书编号：S0740522120002 Email：youfan@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 上市公司数 468 行业总市值(百万元) 6,517,067 行业流通市值(百万元) 3,212,454 [Table_QuotePic] 行业-市场走势对比 沪深300 电子（中信） -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 23-6 23-9 23-12 24-3 24-6 公司持有该股票比例 [Table_Report] 相关报告 【中泰电子】半导体周跟踪： Apple ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 10.24 [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.958 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 192 million yuan, down 22.70% year-on-year [2] - Despite the challenges in the construction sector and ongoing pressure from the real estate market, the company's digital cost business has shown resilience, with improved operational metrics and increased customer retention [2][3] - The company has actively optimized its product strategy and marketing approach, focusing on core business applications and enhancing the proportion of self-developed software and hardware [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 6,591 million yuan - 2023A: 6,563 million yuan (growth rate: -0.4%) - 2024E: 6,577 million yuan (growth rate: 0.2%) - 2025E: 7,171 million yuan (growth rate: 9.0%) - 2026E: 7,960 million yuan (growth rate: 11.0%) [2][3] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 967 million yuan - 2023A: 116 million yuan - 2024E: 489 million yuan - 2025E: 1,069 million yuan - 2026E: 1,420 million yuan [2][3] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 0.58 yuan - 2023A: 0.07 yuan (decrease of 88.0%) - 2024E: 0.29 yuan (increase of 321.9%) - 2025E: 0.64 yuan (increase of 118.8%) - 2026E: 0.85 yuan (increase of 32.8%) [2][3] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2022A: 18 - 2023A: 147 - 2024E: 35 - 2025E: 16 - 2026E: 12 [2][3] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2022A: 3 - 2023A: 3 - 2024E: 3 - 2025E: 2 - 2026E: 2 [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating, predicting that the company's profits will be under pressure due to the macroeconomic environment and the downturn in the real estate sector. However, it remains optimistic about the company's competitive advantages in technology products and market positioning [2][3]

Forklift Industry - The global forklift market reached 2.01 million units in 2022, with a market size of approximately 122.5 billion yuan, growing at a CAGR of 8.18% from 2013 to 2022 [18] - China is the largest forklift market, accounting for 40% of global sales, followed by Europe (30%), the Americas (19%), and Asia-Pacific including Japan (11%) [18] - The domestic forklift market is experiencing moderate recovery, driven by the growth of electric forklifts (classes 1-3) [18] - Lithium-ion forklifts are replacing internal combustion and lead-acid forklifts, with the lithium-ion penetration rate for large forklifts (classes 1+2+4/5) increasing from 5.2% in 2020 to 19% in 2023 [18] - The global forklift market (excluding China) is estimated at 92.7 billion yuan in 2022, with Chinese exports accounting for 17.1 billion yuan (18% market share) [18] - Chinese forklift manufacturers have significant export potential, with Hangcha, Anhui Heli, and Noblelift achieving export revenues of 6.535 billion, 6.113 billion, and 4.187 billion yuan respectively in 2023 [18] Commercial Aircraft Industry (C919) - The C919 has entered commercial operation with 6 aircraft delivered, marking China's capability in large passenger aircraft development [18] - Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has invested over 10 billion yuan in C919 production capacity, aiming for an annual output of 150 aircraft [18] - The C919 has received over 1,300 orders, with confirmed orders exceeding 60% of the total [18] - By 2030, China is expected to achieve an annual delivery capacity of 100 C919 aircraft, with cumulative production exceeding 1,000 units by 2035 [18] - The C919's supply chain has achieved 60% localization, with airframe structures being fully localized, while engines and avionics systems still rely heavily on imports [18] REITs Market - The National Development and Reform Commission has expanded the underlying asset categories for REITs to twelve major types, including clean coal power generation, elderly care, and market-oriented rental housing [19] - The minimum asset size requirement for initial REITs projects has been set at 1 billion yuan (800 million yuan for rental housing and elderly care projects) [19] - The policy allows for more flexible use of funds, with up to 15% of net proceeds permitted for working capital purposes [19] - The approval process has been streamlined, eliminating the preliminary guidance phase and setting clear time limits for feedback [19] MLF Rate Cut - The People's Bank of China cut the MLF rate by 20 basis points to 2.30% on July 25, 2024, following a 10-basis-point cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate earlier in the month [20] - Major state-owned banks simultaneously reduced deposit rates, with 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year term deposit rates cut by 20 basis points [20] - The MLF rate cut aligns with the downward trend in interbank certificate of deposit rates, with AAA-rated 1-year CD yields falling below 2.0% [20] Land Market - National land transfer revenue declined by 35% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, reaching 1.054758 trillion yuan [21] - In June 2024, land transfer revenue fell by 46.77% year-on-year to 224.13 billion yuan, with the average land price decreasing by 32.46% to 1,650 yuan per square meter [21] - State-owned enterprises accounted for 57% of land acquisitions in June 2024, while local government financing platform (LGFV) purchases represented 26.62% of total land purchases [21] - Beijing led in land transfer revenue with 27.343 billion yuan in June 2024, followed by Zhejiang and Shandong provinces [21]

、 工程机械行业点评 - CME 预计 2024 年 7 月挖机出口销量 8000 台，时隔 1 年同比转正 机械设备行业 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2024 年 7 月 24 日 [Table_Main] 评级：增持（维持）重点公司基本状况 分析师：王可 执业证书编号：S0740519080001 Email：wangke03@zts.com.cn 分析师：姜楠宇 执业证书编号：S0740522110001 Email：jiangny@zts.com.cn 简称 股价 (元) EPS PE 评级 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 山推股份 6.7 0.51 0.63 0.77 0.91 13.2 2 10.70 8.75 7.41 买入 三一重工 16.0 0.53 0.72 0.93 1.18 29.9 2 22.11 17.15 13.55 未评级 徐工机械 6.5 0.45 0.57 0.72 0.92 14.4 4 11.39 9.04 7.10 未评级 中联重科 7.0 0.43 0.52 0.67 0.82 16.3 0 13.36 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a market price of 26.44 CNY [2] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a recovery in demand starting from Q2 2024, with a gradual improvement in gross margins for lithium iron phosphate products [4] - The company's market share in lithium iron phosphate remains stable, ranking second in the industry, with a high concentration of market share among top competitors [11] - The forecast for net profit has been adjusted downwards due to losses in Q1 2024, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 being 200 million, 550 million, and 760 million CNY respectively [4] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 280 million; circulating shares: 252 million; market capitalization: 7,408 million CNY; circulating market capitalization: 6,659 million CNY [1] - Revenue forecast for 2023A is 16,973 million CNY, with a YoY growth rate of -25% [2] - Net profit for 2023A is projected at -1,636 million CNY, reflecting a YoY decline of 169% [2] - The company’s P/E ratio for 2024E is estimated at 3.1, with a P/B ratio of 0.8 [2] - The company’s cash flow per share is projected to be -21.90 CNY in 2024E, improving to 7.78 CNY by 2025E [2] Industry Insights - Domestic lithium iron phosphate battery sales and exports are experiencing high growth, with a 32% YoY increase in sales for the first half of 2024 [3] - The domestic energy storage battery sales reached 84.5 GWh in the first half of 2024, marking a 137% YoY increase, with lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for nearly 100% of this segment [3] - The competitive landscape shows that the top five companies in the industry hold a combined market share of 61% [11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The company achieved record revenue in Q2 2024, with a total of 16.42 trillion KRW, representing a 32% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 125% year-over-year increase, significantly surpassing the previous record of 13.81 trillion KRW set in Q2 2022 [6][8]. - The strong demand for AI-related products, particularly HBM and eSSD, contributed to this revenue growth, with HBM revenue increasing over 80% quarter-over-quarter and over 250% year-over-year [6]. - The company is expected to launch HBM4 in 2025, with HBM3E sales projected to exceed 50% of total HBM volume in 2024 [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Q2 2024 Financials: Record Revenue and Profit Improvement - Revenue reached 16.42 trillion KRW, with a gross margin of 46%, an increase of 7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and 62 percentage points year-over-year [6][8]. - Operating profit for Q2 2024 was 5.47 trillion KRW, marking a return to the 5 trillion KRW level for the first time since 2018 [8]. - Net profit for Q2 2024 was 4.12 trillion KRW, with a net profit margin of 25% [8]. 2. Q3 2024 Outlook: Divergence in DRAM and NAND Shipments - DRAM revenue is expected to grow slightly in Q3, while NAND shipments are anticipated to decline due to weak demand in other segments [12]. - DRAM shipments are projected to increase by 0-5% quarter-over-quarter, while NAND shipments may decrease by around 5% [12]. 3. Downstream Demand: Strong Server Demand in H2 - The demand for servers, particularly AI servers, is expected to remain strong in the second half of 2024, with a projected 20% growth in server DRAM demand [26]. - Mobile and PC demand is anticipated to improve gradually, especially with the launch of AI-enabled devices [26][27]. 4. Capital Expenditure: HBM Investment Exceeds Expectations - Capital expenditure for 2024 is expected to be higher than initially planned, focusing on HBM and new facilities [29][30]. - The company is maintaining a prudent investment strategy based on market demand and profitability [30]. 5. High-End Products: HBM4 Launch Expected in 2025 - The company plans to launch HBM4 in 2025, with significant growth in HBM3E sales expected in 2024 [32]. - HBM revenue is projected to grow over 300% year-over-year in 2024 [32]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring upstream design companies and the HBM supply chain for potential investment opportunities [34].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in revenue and profit for the company in Q2 2024, with revenue reaching 16.42 trillion KRW, a 32% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 125% year-on-year increase, marking a new quarterly high [6][8]. - Strong demand for AI-related products, particularly HBM and eSSD, is noted, with HBM revenue increasing over 80% quarter-on-quarter and over 250% year-on-year [6]. - The report anticipates a mixed outlook for Q3 2024, with DRAM and NAND shipment volumes expected to diverge due to strong AI and server demand, while other demand remains weak [12]. - The company is increasing capital expenditures, particularly for HBM, exceeding initial plans due to higher-than-expected demand [25][26]. - The introduction of HBM4 is expected in 2025, with significant growth anticipated in HBM3E shipments starting in Q3 2024 [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Q2 2024 Financials: Record Revenue and Profit Improvement - Revenue for Q2 2024 reached 16.42 trillion KRW, a record high, driven by increased ASP and a favorable product mix [6]. - Gross margin improved to 46%, with operating profit at 5.47 trillion KRW, marking a return to levels not seen since 2018 [8]. - Net profit for Q2 2024 was 4.12 trillion KRW, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [8]. 2. Q3 2024 Outlook: Divergence in DRAM and NAND Shipments - DRAM revenue is expected to grow with shipment volumes increasing by 15% to 20% [12]. - NAND shipments are projected to decline slightly due to inventory issues, despite a continued increase in eSSD sales [12]. 3. Downstream Demand: Strong Server Demand in H2 - The storage market is characterized by strong cyclicality, with mobile, PC, and server applications accounting for approximately 80% of demand [15]. - AI server demand is robust, with expectations for a 20% growth in server DRAM demand this year and next [22]. - Mobile demand is expected to improve in H2 2024 with the launch of AI-enabled flagship models [22]. 4. Capital Expenditures: HBM Investment Exceeds Expectations - Capital expenditures for 2024 are projected to be higher than initially planned, focusing on HBM and new facilities [25]. - Infrastructure investments are increasing to support HBM production, which requires more wafers and space [26]. 5. High-End Products: HBM4 Launch Expected in 2025 - HBM3E revenue is expected to rise, with shipments surpassing HBM3 starting in Q3 2024 [28]. - The company anticipates significant growth in HBM revenue, with a projected year-on-year increase of over 300% [28].

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】策略徐驰：如何看待美国大选对市场的影响？ 证券研究报告 2024 年 7 月 25 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： Email： [b_Suy 今日预览 今日重点 >> 【策略】徐驰：如何看待美国大选对市场的影响？ 【宏观】张德礼：财政支出仍待发力 【电子】王芳：科技大厂财报系列：特斯拉 24Q2 业绩解读 研究分享 >> 【机械】王可：工程机械行业点评 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 ►【策略】徐驰：如何看待美国大选对市场的影响？ 徐 驰｜中泰策略行业首席 S0740519080003 一、特朗普当选概率上升，但仍存在不确定性 在美国 2024 年总统选举首场辩论中，拜登表现不佳，其质疑声也慢慢扩大，一系列民主党议员和 "金主"呼吁拜登放弃连任。另一方面，特朗普遇刺但并无大碍，其当选胜率进一步提高。最终拜 登宣布放弃连任，并转而"背书"副手卡玛拉·哈里斯。与拜登相比，哈里斯的政治基础相对薄弱， 拜登的 ...

证券研究报告 报告日期：2024年7月24日 【中泰电子｜AI全视角】科技大厂财报系列： 特斯拉24Q2业绩解读 分析师：王芳 S0740521120002，杨旭 S0740521120001，张琼 S0740523070004 联系人：洪嘉琳 1 摘要 ◼ 24Q2业绩： 收入255亿美元，yoy+2.3%，qoq+19.7%，高于市场预期，主要得益于发电和储能业务同环比大幅增长；净利润 （non-GAAP）18.1亿美元，yoy-42.4%，qoq+18.0%， EPS（non-GAAP，摊销）为0.52美元，低于市场预期，主因汽车ASP下 降导致毛利率下滑，此外AI设施运营成本增加亦有影响。 ◼ 交付&产量：24Q2全球总销量44.4万辆，yoy-4.8%，qoq+14.8%， 24Q2全球总产量41.1万辆，yoy-14.4%，qoq-5.2%，预计 24Q3产量环比提升。 ◼ FSD：1）升级：7.23日推出FSD V12.5，参数量较V12.4提高5倍多；2）里程：累计里程已达16亿英里；3）24年底FSD Supervised有望在欧洲和中国获批。 ◼ 新车型：1）平价车型预计25H1推出；2） ...