Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4]. Core Insights - The white-feathered chicken breeding is facing restrictions, which is expected to extend the upstream prosperity cycle [2]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply surplus leading to a decline in prices, but a potential rebound is anticipated as demand improves during the year-end peak season [1]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply is expected to be ample by year-end, with pig prices continuing to decline. As of December 6, the price was 15.66 CNY/kg, down 0.85 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average utilization rate of fattening barns across 17 provinces was 38.35%, a decrease of 5.88 percentage points [1][12]. - Consumption is recovering, with slaughter volumes on the rise. The average daily slaughter volume from November 30 to December 6 was 170,000 pigs, an increase of 0.69% week-on-week [1][18]. - The proportion of large pigs being sold has increased, with the average weight rising. From November 29 to December 5, the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was 6.76%, up 0.95 percentage points week-on-week [1][28]. White-feathered Chicken - The price of chicken seedlings has dropped seasonally, with the industry average at 4.18 CNY per chick as of December 6, down 5.43% week-on-week. The price of white-feathered chicken was 7.55 CNY/kg, down 1.95% week-on-week [2][48]. - The outbreak of avian influenza in the U.S. and New Zealand has intensified restrictions on overseas breeding, leading to a shortage of imported parent stock chicken seedlings. The average price for parent stock chicken seedlings rose to 54.91 CNY/set, up from 39.11 CNY/set at the beginning of the year [2][53]. Seed Industry - The National Seed Double Exchange Conference highlighted significant achievements in seed industry revitalization, with a seed supply guarantee capacity reaching 75% [2][70]. - The 2024 policy document emphasizes accelerating the industrialization of biological breeding, which is expected to expand market space and improve industry concentration [2][71].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease from the previous month's growth rate[2] - The CPI decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, a larger decline compared to the previous value[2] - Prices for clothing rose by 0.6% month-on-month, while education and entertainment prices fell by 0.7%[3] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, but the decline was narrower by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first positive change since the second half of the year[2] - Prices for production materials fell by 2.9% year-on-year, with a reduction in the decline by 0.4 percentage points from October[5] Group 3: Food Price Trends - Food and beverage prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing to a 0.5 percentage point drop in CPI[4] - Fresh vegetable prices decreased by 13.2% month-on-month, a significant increase in the decline compared to October[4] - Dairy prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the largest increase among food items in November[4] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic changes, geopolitical events, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in various sectors including electric vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, power equipment, and hydrogen energy, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][3][4] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - Nvidia's robotics supply chain is exploring opportunities in Taiwan, while Geely's Starship 7EM-i has officially launched, showcasing advancements in the electric vehicle market [2][14][15] 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The 2024 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference in Yibin reached a consensus on industry self-discipline, aiming to prevent "involution" and promote sustainable development, which is expected to stabilize prices in the photovoltaic supply chain [2][26][27] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - The National Energy Group has initiated a 1.8GW centralized procurement tender, and two offshore wind projects in Fujian totaling 428MW have been approved, indicating robust growth in wind energy projects [2][37][38] 3. Energy Storage Sector - Sungrow signed the largest energy storage supply agreement in Southeast Asia for 1.5GWh, enhancing its market presence, while Fluence plans to invest in manufacturing 530Ah battery cells in the U.S., reflecting strong growth in energy storage solutions [3][47][49] 4. Power Equipment and Industrial Control Sector - The National Energy Administration supports the innovation of energy storage, virtual power plants, and smart microgrids, while Nvidia is entering the humanoid robot market, indicating a shift towards advanced technologies in power equipment [3][55][64] 5. Hydrogen Energy Sector - AEM technology is gaining traction, with the hydrogen energy corridor becoming a commercial starting point for hydrogen vehicles. The report notes significant orders for electrolysis equipment, indicating a growing market for hydrogen energy solutions [4][72][73]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the recent policies aimed at promoting new urban infrastructure construction will positively impact the demand for building materials. The implementation of housing transaction tax incentives has already benefited 364,000 home-buying families, with a total tax reduction of 8.4 billion yuan within five days [2][14] - The report highlights that the easing of monetary and fiscal policies in China, alongside the recent adjustments in housing loan rates and tax reductions, is expected to stabilize the real estate market and improve purchasing intentions and capabilities [2][14] - The report notes that the building materials sector is likely to see a recovery in demand as the real estate market stabilizes, which may alleviate credit risks for companies in the industry [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report discusses the issuance of opinions by the Central Committee and the State Council to advance urban infrastructure digital transformation and smart construction, which is expected to enhance building material demand [2][14] - It mentions various local government initiatives to support housing purchases, including the ability for employees to withdraw housing provident fund balances for down payments and increased loan limits for families with two children [2][14] 2. Weekly High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - As of December 6, 2024, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 418.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous week, but an increase of 15.0% year-on-year [3][15] - Regional prices vary, with North China at 381.0 yuan/ton and Northeast China at 497.0 yuan/ton [15] 2.2 Glass - The national ex-factory price of glass (5.00mm) is 1365.7 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.1% from the previous week but a significant decrease of 31.1% year-on-year [21][22] 2.3 Fiberglass - The report provides prices for various fiberglass producers, with prices ranging from 3700.0 to 3800.0 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year increases of 12.1% to 15.2% [41] 3. Sector Review - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.33%, while the building materials index increased by 1.94%, indicating a moderate performance compared to other sectors [4][54] - It highlights the best-performing sub-sectors, including cement products and fiberglass manufacturing, which saw increases of 5.82% and 5.13%, respectively [4][54] - The report suggests investment opportunities in high-quality companies benefiting from inventory upgrades and those with strong fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement and China Jushi [4][54]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached historical highs this week, driven by interest rate cut expectations and strong economic data, with the S&P 500 increasing by 0.96% and Nasdaq by 3.34% [1][9] - The consumer discretionary sector rose by 4.57%, and the information technology sector increased by 4.22%, indicating strong performance in these areas [1][9] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 227,000 jobs in November, surpassing the previous value of 36,000 and the expected 200,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% [10][11] Group 2 - The ISM manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 48.4, higher than the previous value of 46.5 and the expected 47.5, while the ISM non-manufacturing index was at 52.1, lower than the previous 56 and expected 55.5 [10][11] - The Michigan consumer sentiment index for December was 74, exceeding the previous value of 71.8 and the expected 73 [10][11] - The market anticipates an 86% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [11][22] Group 3 - Global major asset classes showed mixed performance, with the German DAX rising by 3.86%, Nasdaq by 3.34%, and CBOT soybean oil by 3.17%, while IPE crude oil fell by 2.59% [2][35] - The U.S. equity markets displayed varied results, with the consumer discretionary sector leading gains, while the energy sector faced declines [40][45] - The foreign exchange market saw the ruble appreciating by 2.05% against the yuan, while the Korean won depreciated by 1.46% [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the satellite internet industry [5]. Core Insights - The successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket marks a significant advancement in China's commercial space capabilities, enhancing satellite internet technology and increasing launch capacity for low Earth orbit [2]. - The "Qianfan Constellation" satellite network has expanded to 54 satellites, aiming to provide low-latency, high-speed satellite internet services globally, with plans for further expansion by 2025 [3]. - The report suggests focusing on various companies within the satellite internet supply chain, including Chengchang Technology, Fudan Microelectronics, and others [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic sector index increased by 1.61% during the week of December 2-6, with the ChiNext index rising by 1.97% and the CSI 300 index by 1.44% [12]. - The electronic sector ranked 24th among all industries in terms of performance for the week [12]. Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor sector is facing challenges due to new U.S. export restrictions affecting over 140 Chinese companies, prompting calls for cautious procurement of U.S. chips [30]. - Global semiconductor sales reached $56.9 billion in October 2024, a 22.1% increase year-over-year, with projections for continued growth in 2024 and 2025 [34]. - The automotive chip localization rate is expected to rise to 15% in 2024, driven by domestic production and policy support [56]. Company Developments - XREAL has launched the XREAL One AR glasses, which feature a self-developed X1 chip aimed at enhancing user experience in augmented reality [50][51]. - Tesla plans to introduce a new model, "Model Q," in the first half of 2025, priced below $30,000, as part of its strategy to expand market reach [58]. - NXP Semiconductors is establishing a supply chain in China to support the growing demand for automotive chips [60].

Group 1 - The report indicates that China's total policy support is clear, with reduced risks from broad fiscal and real estate sectors dragging down the economy. If commodity and service consumption continue to expand, combined with improved industrial profits, it may signal a positive feedback loop for domestic circulation [1] - The resilience of the US economy is highlighted, with interest rate-sensitive sectors providing support to the economy [1] - The long-term trend in China is identified as an expansion of the service industry, a contraction in traditional manufacturing, and an acceleration of self-sufficiency and the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Group 2 - The report notes that market trading characteristics remain evident, with a potential shift towards large-cap value styles in the future [1] - There is a long-term positive outlook for central state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative, new consumption, O2O, semiconductor equipment, military industry, and leading traditional manufacturing companies, while mid-term attention is given to AI applications [1] Group 3 - The report discusses the weak structure of US non-farm employment, with November's non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations at 227,000, supported mainly by government sectors, while the private sector fell short of expectations [10] - It is noted that employment in goods production is stronger than in services, but wage growth remains weak, indicating persistent inflation in the service sector [11] - The report highlights that advanced manufacturing and cyclical sectors have led the market, while consumption and pharmaceuticals have shown weaker performance [20]

华福证券 宏 观 研 究 投资要点： 进阶而上——2025 年宏观经济及市场展望 团队成员 分析师： 燕翔(S0210523050003) yx30128@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 许茹纯(S0210523060005) xrc30167@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 朱成成(S0210523060003) zcc30168@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 石琳(S0210123100047) sl30332@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、历次政治动荡后的韩国资产表现——全球热点 观察系列（7）——2024.12.06 2、行业比较专刊：下游消费延续复苏，中游行业 景气回升——2024.12.04 3、一周综评与展望：PMI 景气回升——2024.12.01 2025 年宏观经济有望走出价格收缩区间、迎来名义经济增速拐点，新质生 产力加快发展、新动能不断培育壮大。新" 国九条"和" 1+N"政策体系为 资本市场行稳致远夯实基石，持续推动资本市场高质量发展。市场行情方 面，2025 年预计将出现阶段转换，从第一阶段由政策驱动风险偏好提升及 资金宽松引发的市场行情进入到由盈利基本面持续改善驱 ...

Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank will implement a revised narrow money (M1) statistical caliber starting January 2025, which will include personal demand deposits and customer reserve funds from non-bank payment institutions[1] - The adjustment aims to reflect the liquidity of personal demand deposits and non-bank payment reserves, aligning them with the characteristics of demand deposits[1] Global Political Instability - South Korea's political situation is tense, with President Yoon Suk-yeol declaring a state of emergency due to budget disputes, which was later revoked by the National Assembly[2] - France's National Assembly successfully passed a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Barnier, marking the first successful no-confidence vote since 1962, leading to significant political instability[2] - Germany faces political turmoil as Finance Minister Lindner was dismissed, contributing to the potential collapse of the coalition government, impacting the economic outlook for Europe[2] U.S. Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, surpassing both expectations and the previous month's rate of 4.1%[2] - The strong job growth alongside rising unemployment has increased market speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include geopolitical instability exceeding expectations, economic data falling short of forecasts, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets[3]

Economic Growth and Resilience - China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2024 reached 95 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, maintaining a high growth level globally[11] - The IMF predicts that China's economy will continue to show strong resilience and high growth rates in 2025, contributing significantly to global economic growth[11] Inflation and Price Trends - In 2024, China's CPI increased by an average of 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from 2023, while PPI decreased by 2.1%, narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to 2023[12] - With the implementation of macro policies, China's economy is expected to exit the price contraction zone in 2025[12] New Quality Productivity and Economic Transformation - High-tech industry investment grew by 9.3% in the first 10 months of 2024, with high-tech manufacturing and services investment growing faster than overall fixed asset investment[13] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.1% year-on-year in 2024, significantly higher than the overall industrial growth rate[13] Economic Structural Optimization - The service sector accounted for 55.9% of GDP in the first three quarters of 2024, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[18] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 82.5% to GDP growth in 2023, the highest since 2000[18] Domestic Demand and Investment - Social retail sales grew by 3.5% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024, with a notable increase to 4.8% in October[19] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.4% in the first 10 months of 2024, with equipment and tool investment growing by 16.1%[20] Real Estate Market Stabilization - The real estate market showed signs of recovery in Q3 2024, with new commercial housing sales area improving significantly in October and November[23] - Policy measures, including tax incentives and financial support, are expected to further stabilize the real estate market in 2025[24] Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks, macroeconomic underperformance, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets are key risks to watch[25]