华福证券 轨交设备Ⅱ 2024 年 12 月 07 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 破 10 万列——2024.11.17 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 分析师： 俞能飞 ynf30520@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 唐保威 tbw30562@hfzq.com.cn | (S0210524040008) (S0210524050012) | | 相关报告 | | | 1、2024 年 1— 10 好，全国铁路客流保持高位—— 2 | 月份全国铁路主要指标持续向 2024.11.30 、我国铁路首次大规模试运动力锂电池，中老铁 | | 路老挝段单日旅客发送量创新高—— | 2024.11.23 | | 3、1 至 10 | 月发送旅客创新高，中欧班 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects and market position [3][5] Core Views - The company has signed a 7-year exclusive distribution agreement with A Menarini Diagnostics S r l to distribute its first and second-generation CGM products in over 20 European countries and regions under a co-branding arrangement [1] - The European CGM market is the second largest globally, with a projected CAGR of 20 6% from 2020 to 2030, reaching USD 7 8 billion by 2030 [2] - The company is making progress in product improvements and FDA registration for the US market, which could further enhance its market share [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 4 32 billion in 2024 to CNY 5 93 billion in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 6%, 15%, and 19% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from CNY 330 million in 2024 to CNY 635 million in 2026, with growth rates of 16%, 55%, and 24% respectively [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from CNY 0 59 in 2024 to CNY 1 13 in 2026 [3] Market and Industry Analysis - The European CGM market is expected to grow significantly, providing a substantial opportunity for the company to expand its presence through the new distribution agreement [2] - The company's CGM products are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in Europe, leveraging the strong distribution network of A Menarini Diagnostics [1][2] Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is continuously improving its product offerings, with next-generation products under review for enhanced user experience [2] - Efforts to enter the US market are ongoing, with FDA registration progressing, which could open up additional growth opportunities [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][42]. Core Insights - OpenAI announced a 12-day live streaming event to showcase various new technologies, including the launch of the o1 model and the new ChatGPT Pro subscription plan [2][21]. - The o1 model is designed to excel in programming, mathematics, and writing, with improved response speed and the ability to process visual data [2][23]. - The o1 Pro version, available through a $200/month subscription, outperforms previous versions in benchmarks related to mathematics, science, and programming [2][26]. - OpenAI introduced a fine-tuning feature that allows users to create expert models with minimal data, achieving an 80% score improvement over the o1 model [2][28]. Summary by Sections OpenAI Live Streaming Event - OpenAI's live streaming event consists of 12 sessions, starting on December 4, 2024, to introduce new products and features [2][21]. - The first day featured the launch of the o1 model and the ChatGPT Pro subscription plan [2][23]. AI Application Updates - During the period from November 29 to December 5, 2024, the download volumes for ChatGPT and Gemini remained stable at approximately 1.6 to 1.7 million and 600,000 to 650,000 per day, respectively [2][31]. - Domestic applications such as Doubao, Xinghuo, Wenxin Yiyan, and Tongyi maintained stable download volumes, while Kimi's downloads dropped to around 750,000 per day [2][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The traditional peak season is approaching, with a focus on inventory preparation and sales improvement [1]. - The report highlights various segments within the food and beverage industry, recommending specific companies based on their growth potential and market positioning [1]. Summary by Segment Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) - The baijiu sector is expected to face pressure in Q4 and the beginning of the new year, with companies actively maintaining core product prices [1][12]. - Recommended companies include Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [1]. Beer - The report recommends Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, focusing on high-end products and efficiency reforms [15]. - The beer market is expected to see stable sales growth, driven by structural upgrades [15]. Soft Drinks - Key recommendations include Dongpeng Beverage and Xiangpiaopiao, with a focus on companies showing recovery potential [16][17]. Pre-mixed Drinks - The report highlights the growth potential of the pre-mixed drinks sector, recommending Bairun Co., which is expected to benefit from its upcoming whiskey launch [18][19]. Dairy Products - Yili is recommended for its clear profit orientation and product structure optimization [21]. Snack Foods - Companies like Three Squirrels and Jin Zai Food are highlighted for their growth potential in emerging channels [22][23]. Seasonings & Catering - Recommended companies include Angel Yeast and Zhongju High-tech, with expectations of strong performance in the upcoming peak season [27][28]. Baking Supply Chain - Hai Rong Technology is recommended for its overseas expansion potential and growth confidence [30]. Health Products & Sugar Alternatives - The health products sector is expected to grow, driven by both the elderly and younger generations [31][32]. - Recommendations include Tong Ren Tang and Baihe Co. for their strong market positions [32]. Catering - Companies like Haidilao and Yum China are recommended for their innovative approaches and market positioning [36][38]. Pet Products - The report highlights the growth potential in the pet industry, recommending companies like Zhongchong Co. and Peidi Co. for their strong export performance [39][40]. Gold & Jewelry - Recommendations include Chao Hong Ji and Zhou Dazheng, focusing on their growth strategies and market positioning [43].

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 行 业 研 究 日 行 业 定 期 研 究 有色金属 2024 年 12 月 8 日 有色金属行业周报（12.2-12.8） 强于大市(维持评级) 中国央行 11 月增持黄金，安托法斯塔与江铜签 订 25 年长单 TC 投资要点： ➢ 贵金属：中国央行11月增持黄金，中长期配置价值不改。特朗普 赢得美国大选，市场担心特朗普提议的关税和移民可能会重新引发通 胀，周内金价弱势持稳。周中叙利亚局势升温，美国11月失业率和非 农数据表现超预期，12月降息预期升温。短期来看，特朗普交易仍未 完全消退，市场对未来经济滞涨担忧仍在，预计贵金属价格震荡为 主；中长期角度来看，全球主要经济体货币政策方向明确，东欧及朝 鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属避险属性，中国央行11月增持黄 金，贵金属中长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、紫 金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份， 其他关注银泰黄金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、 银泰黄金、盛达资源。 ➢ 工业金属：Antofagasta与江西铜业确定2025年铜精矿长单TC/R ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Supporting the Innovative Development of New Business Entities in the Power Sector" is expected to promote the construction of a new power system [4][50] - Datang Tuoketuo Power Plant is transitioning from a single coal-fired power model to a diversified energy model, aiming to create a "future power plant" and "energy supermarket" [3][22] Summary by Sections Market Review - From December 2 to December 6, the environmental sector rose by 3.70%, the water sector by 2.35%, the power sector by 3.60%, and the gas sector fell by 0.15%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 2.60% [12][14] Industry Perspectives - The new business entities are crucial for constructing a new power system that accommodates a high proportion of renewable energy consumption. The challenges include insufficient renewable energy absorption capacity, lack of profitable models for new storage technologies, and increased supply pressure due to the instability of renewable energy [17][18] - The "Guiding Opinions" define new business entities, including distributed renewable energy and new storage technologies, and outline their roles in addressing supply, regulation, and absorption challenges [18][21] Company Announcements - Datang Tuoketuo Power Plant currently operates a total installed capacity of 8.73 million kW, with 6.72 million kW from coal, 1.70 million kW from wind, and 0.31 million kW from solar. In the first half of 2024, the plant's revenue reached 5.072 billion yuan, with a net profit of 680 million yuan [3][22][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the green energy sector such as Three Gorges Energy, while being cautious with Longyuan Power, Zhejiang New Energy, and Zhonglv Electric. In the hydropower sector, it recommends attention to Changjiang Electric Power and Qianyuan Electric, with caution advised for Guotou Power and Huaneng Hydropower [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Follow the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the market benchmark index over the next 6 months [23]. Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a slight decline, with the Shenwan Semiconductor Index down by 0.25% during the week of December 2-7, while other indices like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Index showed positive growth [2]. - The global semiconductor sales reached a record high in October 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, and a forecasted growth of 19.0% for the entire year, reaching a total of $626.9 billion [4]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on Chinese semiconductor companies, with 140 firms added to the entity list, prompting a swift response from China to restrict exports of dual-use items to the U.S. [2][3]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market Performance - The semiconductor sector's transaction volume accounted for 4.87% of the total A-share market, showing a decrease from the previous week [2]. - Various sub-sectors within the semiconductor industry showed mixed performance, with equipment and materials down by 3.11% and 1.32% respectively, while digital and analog chips saw increases of 0.33% and 2.96% [2]. Company Developments - NXP Semiconductors is expanding its manufacturing capabilities in China, with a new 12-inch wafer fab set to begin production in 2027, aiming to enhance its local supply chain [3]. - The report notes that the domestic semiconductor equipment companies are preparing for potential impacts from U.S. export controls, with most components already localized [9]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic semiconductor market has significant growth potential, especially with the increasing demand for advanced process chips and local manufacturing initiatives [10]. - The anticipated growth in AI PC applications is expected to drive improvements in storage demand, particularly for NAND Flash products [6].

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - Lululemon's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue in mainland China growing by 39% year-on-year. The company achieved revenue of $2.4 billion in FY25Q3, a 9% increase year-on-year, slightly surpassing market expectations. North America and international revenues grew by 2% and 33% respectively, with international growth at 30% on a constant currency basis [2][12][21]. Summary by Sections Lululemon Q3 Performance - Lululemon's Q3 revenue reached $2.4 billion, up 9% year-on-year (8% on a constant currency basis), slightly above market expectations. Revenue from mainland China surged by 39% year-on-year (36% on a constant currency basis) [2][12]. - Same-store sales in North America declined by 2%, while international same-store sales increased by 25% (22% on a constant currency basis), with mainland China contributing 27% to this growth [12][21]. Market Data - The textile and apparel sector saw a weekly increase of 1.82%, with textile manufacturing down by 0.11% and apparel/home textiles up by 2.66%. The current spot price for 328-grade cotton is 15,196 yuan/ton, down 0.54%, while the Cotlook A price is 81.6 cents/pound, down 0.49% [3][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines in the textile and apparel sector: 1. Recovery in manufacturing exports with high visibility, recommending companies like Shenzhou International, Huafang Group, and Jian Sheng Group. 2. Anticipated growth in sports apparel driven by event marketing and new product launches, recommending 361 Degrees. 3. Favorable trends in overseas expansion and early entry into apparel brands, recommending Anta Sports, Kairun Co., and Semir Apparel [4][30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [5] Core Insights - The implementation of deed tax exemptions has significantly improved transaction data, with 364,000 households benefiting from tax reductions totaling 8.4 billion yuan, averaging 23,000 yuan per household. This policy is expected to stimulate housing demand [1] - In November, land acquisition by major real estate companies reached a new high for the year, with 30 companies acquiring land worth 90 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 181%. The average floor price in core cities rose by 67% compared to October [2] - The report anticipates a surge in property transactions in December due to year-end promotions by developers and a potential easing of policies from the Central Economic Work Conference [3] Sales Review (12.1-12.7) - A total of 23,980 units were sold across 34 monitored cities, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 32.4%. Cumulatively, 868,000 units have been sold in 2024, down 23.6% year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 26.6% decrease week-on-week [4][13] Land Supply (11.24-11.30) - The planned land supply across 100 cities was 3.742 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 38.733 million square meters in 2024, down 30.6% year-on-year. The average floor price for land was 3,969 yuan per square meter, with a week-on-week decrease of 7.8% [4][36] Land Transactions (11.24-11.30) - The total area of residential land sold across 100 cities was 1.518 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 23.581 million square meters in 2024, down 19.5% year-on-year. The average transaction floor price was 4,695 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 28.1% decrease week-on-week [4][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant unmet demand in the lipid-lowering drug sector, driven by a large patient population suffering from atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which is the leading cause of death in China, accounting for over 40% of mortality [2][19]. - The report emphasizes the need for innovative lipid-lowering therapies, particularly focusing on new targets such as PCSK9, Lp(a), APOC3, ANGPTL3, and CETP, as traditional treatments like statins have limitations [2][19]. - The report suggests that the domestic companies involved in the development of innovative lipid-lowering drugs, such as Heng Rui Medicine, Shiyao Group, and Kangfang Biotech, should be closely monitored for investment opportunities [2][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Investment Strategy - The report notes that the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 1.5% in the week of December 2-6, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.1 percentage points [1]. - It suggests that the pharmaceutical sector can gradually increase allocations, with expectations of excess returns following the semi-annual reports [11]. 2. Lipid-Lowering Drug Industry Focus - The report identifies a large patient population with ASCVD and highlights the low treatment rates in China, with only 30.1% of high-risk patients achieving long-term LDL-C targets [2][19]. - It discusses the innovative research and development of lipid-lowering drugs targeting PCSK9, Lp(a), APOC3, ANGPTL3, and CETP, indicating a robust pipeline of new therapies [2][19]. 3. Weekly Market Recap and Hotspot Tracking - The report provides a recap of the A-share pharmaceutical sector's performance, noting a rebound after a period of decline, influenced by government procurement policies favoring domestic brands [2][3]. - It anticipates significant capital inflows into pharmaceutical ETFs and actively managed funds, suggesting potential for excess returns in the near future [2][11]. 4. Recommended Investment Combinations - The report lists specific companies to watch, including WuXi AppTec, United Imaging Healthcare, and Kangfang Biotech, as part of its investment strategy [2][11].