Overall Situation - The total issuance scale of funds in November saw a significant rebound, with 1,474 billion units issued, an increase of 1,141 billion units from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 171 billion units [12][14] - Equity funds dominated the issuance, accounting for 73.7% of the total, which is a 21.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [14] Active Equity Funds - The issuance scale of active equity funds improved slightly, with 49 billion units issued in November, although this remains at a low level [21] - Among the 15 new active equity funds, 11 were mixed equity funds, totaling 31.8 billion units, which represents 64.4% of the active equity fund issuance [23] Passive Equity Funds - The issuance scale of passive equity funds saw a substantial recovery, with 1,037 billion units issued, an increase of 892 billion units from the previous month [29] - The majority of the 57 new passive equity funds were passive index funds, indicating a preference for strategies that track market indices [32] Bond Funds - The issuance scale of bond funds increased to 375 billion units, a rise of 240 billion units from the previous month, although it remains at a low level compared to historical data [36] - Among the 20 new bond funds, passive index bond funds accounted for the largest share, with 169 billion units issued, representing 45.1% of the total bond fund issuance [36] QDII Funds - The issuance scale of QDII funds decreased to 0.15 billion units, a decline of 2 billion units from the previous month, reflecting ongoing volatility in this segment [41] FOF Funds - The issuance scale of FOF funds increased significantly to 6 billion units, with 3 new funds launched, indicating a recovery in this category [46]

Group 1: US Stock Market Overview - In Q3 2024, the S&P 500 revenue growth was 5.5%, slightly up from 5.3% in Q2 2024, indicating a stable upward trend since H2 2023 [3][18]. - The EPS growth for the S&P 500 in Q3 2024 was 5.9%, down from 11.4% in Q2 2024, but still above the 10-year median of 4.4% [3][25]. - The ROE (TTM) for the S&P 500 in Q3 2024 was 18.7%, unchanged from Q2 2024, reflecting a solid profitability level [3][37]. Group 2: Sector Performance in US Market - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and healthcare sectors led the revenue growth in Q3 2024, with information technology at 12.9% and healthcare at 10.3% [3][21]. - EPS growth in Q3 2024 was highest in the communications services sector at 23.2%, followed by healthcare at 13.6% [3][30]. - The energy sector faced significant challenges, with a revenue decline of -5.4%, attributed to pressure on energy prices [3][21]. Group 3: European Stock Market Overview - In Q3 2024, the Stoxx Europe 600 revenue growth was -1.4%, a decline from 0.2% in Q2 2024, indicating weak revenue performance [4][11]. - The EPS growth for European stocks improved to 4.2% in Q3 2024, a significant recovery from -9.9% in Q2 2024 [4][12]. - The ROE (TTM) for European stocks in Q3 2024 was 13.3%, down from 13.7% in the previous quarter, showing a lag compared to US stocks [4][15]. Group 4: 2025 Outlook for US and European Markets - The outlook for the US stock market remains positive for 2025, driven by strong economic resilience, although caution is advised regarding potential tariff impacts [5][6]. - European stocks are expected to see earnings improvement in 2025, but are unlikely to surpass US stock performance due to ongoing tariff threats and lower valuation levels [6][26]. - The valuation of European stocks is currently at a historical low, presenting potential value for conservative investors [6][27].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Core Views - The coal industry is experiencing a golden era due to energy security concerns and policy support, with supply constraints driven by strict capacity controls and regional supply differentiation [2] - Coal demand remains resilient despite macroeconomic challenges, with thermal coal prices staying above 800 yuan/ton in 2024, and the report expects coal prices to remain high with strong profit sustainability for coal companies [2] - The report recommends focusing on companies with excellent resource endowments, stable operations, and high dividend payouts, as well as those benefiting from coal-electricity integration and long-term supply tightness [2] Weekly Market Review - The coal index slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly decline of 0.02% compared to a 1.32% rise in the CSI 300 [17] - Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 3.06%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300's 14.15% gain [17] - The coal sector's PE ratio is 12.3x, ranking third from the bottom among all A-share industries, while the PB ratio is 1.34x, placing it in the lower-middle range [19] Thermal Coal Market - As of November 29, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 818 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton week-on-week (-0.7%) [2] - Coal inventories at power plants, ports, and coal companies are declining, with power plant daily consumption rising due to lower temperatures [2] - Methanol and urea operating rates remain at historically high levels, with methanol at 85.3% (-1.6pct week-on-week) and urea at 83.6% (+1.8pct week-on-week) [2] Coking Coal Market - The Jingtang Port main coking coal price remained stable at 1,640 yuan/ton as of November 29, 2024 [2] - Iron water production slightly declined, but coking coal prices are expected to remain stable due to policy support [2] - The operating rate of large coking plants (>2 million tons) increased to 78.4%, up 0.8pct week-on-week [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased slightly, with a combined operating rate of 84.5%, up 0.3pct week-on-week [51] - Power plant coal consumption rose to 820,000 tons/day, up 0.6% week-on-week, while inventories decreased by 4.7 million tons (-0.3%) [53] - Methanol and urea operating rates showed mixed trends, with methanol down 1.6pct and urea up 1.8pct week-on-week [60][62] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments, stable operations, and high dividend payouts, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2] - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration, such as Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Energy, are also recommended [2] - Additionally, companies with potential for production increases and global resource scarcity, such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal, are highlighted [2]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing a seasonal recovery in consumption, leading to a fluctuation in pig prices. As of November 29, the price of pigs was 16.51 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.13 yuan/kg. The demand for fat pigs has also increased, with the price difference between 200kg and 175kg pigs expanding [1][11] - The white feather broiler chicken sector is seeing strong replenishment activity, with chick prices remaining firm despite some resistance from farmers due to high prices. As of November 29, the price of white feather broiler chicks was 4.42 yuan/chick, a week-on-week decrease of 1.12% [2][40] - The seed industry is witnessing significant achievements from the National Seed Double Exchange Conference, with a 75% supply guarantee capacity for agricultural seeds, which is expected to enhance the research and development of major varieties [2][60] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Seasonal consumption recovery is driving pig prices upward, with a notable increase in slaughter volumes due to improved demand as temperatures drop [1][11] - The average weight of pigs being sold has increased to 127.35 kg, with a week-on-week rise of 0.62 kg, indicating a release of previously held back production capacity [25][35] - The outlook for pig prices remains positive as demand is expected to strengthen with the onset of winter [35] White Feather Broiler Chicken - The sector is experiencing a strong replenishment phase, with chick prices remaining high despite some negotiation from farmers. The price of white feather broiler chickens was recorded at 7.70 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 0.13% week-on-week [2][40] - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, leading to potential price increases for white chickens in the future [2][44] Seed Industry - The National Seed Double Exchange Conference highlighted significant advancements in seed industry revitalization, with a focus on enhancing breeding innovation and supply capacity [2][60] - The ongoing push for biological breeding is expected to expand market opportunities and improve industry concentration, benefiting leading seed companies [2][61]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The successful development of flexible manufacturing equipment using carbon fiber and 3D printing technology opens new industry scenarios, enhancing the application of new materials in various fields [2] - The acceleration of domestic core components' localization in the supply chain is exemplified by Ruike Laser entering the 3D printing equipment supply chain [2] - The introduction of 3D printing technology in consumer electronics, particularly in the production of the Honor Magic Vs3 smartphone, demonstrates significant advancements in mass production capabilities and product performance [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The downstream market for 3D printing is primarily focused on aerospace, with breakthroughs in the civilian market expected [4] - Key areas for future growth include consumer electronics, automotive, footwear molds, and medical applications, with 3D printing technology addressing traditional production challenges [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies to watch include: - Pltlite, a leading domestic metal 3D printing enterprise with a full industry chain layout - Huazhu High-Tech, a leading 3D printing company driven by technological innovation - Jintaiyang, a key player in 3D printing post-processing - Dazhu Laser, a core component supplier for 3D printing [4]

Group 1 - The report indicates that China's total economic support policies are clear, reducing risks from broad fiscal and real estate sectors on the economy. If commodity and service consumption continue to expand, combined with improvements in industrial profits, it may signal a positive feedback loop in domestic circulation [2][12][13] - The resilience of the US economy is highlighted, with interest rate-sensitive sectors providing support to the economy. The report notes that the US PCE inflation aligns with expectations, indicating a stable economic environment [2][18][19] - The long-term trend for China is identified as an expansion in the service sector, a contraction in traditional manufacturing, and an acceleration of self-sufficiency and the Belt and Road Initiative [2][12][13] Group 2 - Industrial enterprise profit growth has significantly improved, with October's year-on-year profit growth at -10%, a substantial increase from the previous -27.1% [12][13] - The report emphasizes that the improvement in industrial profits is particularly notable in upstream raw material processing and midstream manufacturing sectors, with industries like black metallurgy and chemical fiber manufacturing showing stable prices and improved profit margins [12][13] - The market is characterized by clear trading features, with expectations of a shift towards large-cap value styles in the future [2][27][30] Group 3 - The report notes that consumer and healthcare sectors are leading in performance, while cyclical sectors show less growth. Specific industries such as entertainment products and kitchen appliances are outperforming, while others like black appliances and commercial vehicles are lagging [39][41] - The report highlights that foreign capital in index futures is showing a reduction in net short positions for IC and IM, while IF and IH maintain a stable trend [48][49] - Upcoming key economic indicators include US PMI and non-farm payroll data, which are expected to provide insights into economic trends [54][55]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - Excavator demand is continuously recovering, with CME predicting a 13% increase in excavator sales in November [2] - Domestic sales are expected to reach approximately 8,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 15%, driven by new replacement cycles and supportive real estate policies [3] - Export sales are projected at around 8,300 units, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth due to inventory adjustments and mild recovery in overseas demand [3] - The recent Bauma exhibition attracted 3542 exhibitors from 32 countries, indicating strong international interest [3] - The government is expected to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policies to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate infrastructure investment [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with a forecast of 53,000 excavators sold in H1 2024, a 4.66% year-on-year increase [4] - The demand for equipment replacement is expected to accelerate due to environmental policies and subsidies, with significant growth anticipated post-2025 [4] International Demand - In the first half of 2024, China's engineering machinery exports are projected to reach $25.837 billion, a 3.38% year-on-year increase [4] - The global market is three times larger than the domestic market, with a stable competitive landscape dominated by major players like Caterpillar and Komatsu [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui, as domestic demand continues to recover and export markets expand [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The AI smart glasses sector is expected to accelerate penetration into the traditional eyewear market by 2025, with projected annual sales reaching 55 million units by 2029 and a 70% penetration rate by 2035 [3] - The report highlights the significant advancements in AI glasses technology, particularly with the launch of INMO AIR3 and INMO GO2 by Yingmu Technology, which enhance resolution, field of view, brightness, and refresh rate compared to previous models [2][3] - The report identifies key companies to watch in the AI glasses terminal space, including Goer Technology, Yidao Information, Luxshare Precision, and others [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The electronic sector index increased by 2.38% during the week, with the semiconductor sector showing the highest growth at 3.25% [14][16] 2. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of U.S. export controls on Chinese semiconductor companies, indicating a tightening of restrictions that could affect the industry [33][34] - It notes a 4.8% increase in global NAND flash memory revenue in Q3 2024, reaching $17.6 billion, despite a 2% decline in shipment volume [34][37] - The global DRAM market saw a 13.6% revenue increase in Q3 2024, totaling $26 billion, driven by strong demand from data centers [42][46] 3. Company Dynamics - TSMC is leading the high-end process market, with expectations of a steady recovery in non-AI semiconductor demand by 2025 [38][39] - The report highlights the collaboration between STMicroelectronics and Huahong Semiconductor to produce 40nm microcontrollers in Wuxi by the end of 2025, reflecting a trend towards localizing supply chains [46][47] - The report emphasizes the growth of Huahong Semiconductor in mature process technology, with a projected global market share of 39% by 2027 [50][51]

华福证券 交通运输 2024 年 12 月 02 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 航司时刻增长显著——2024.11.05 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | | | | 分析师： 陈照林 CZL3792@hfzq.com.cn | (S0210522050006) | | 分析师： 乐璨 (S0210524070004) lc30018@hfzq.com.cn | | | 联系人： 张瑜玲 | (S0210123020028) | | ZYL30019@hfzq.com.cn | | | 相关报告 | | | 1 、行业周报 (11.11-11.17): 中型干散货船运价改善—— 2024.11.17 | 内贸需求持续反弹，大 | | 2 、行业周报 (11.4-11.10): 构性改善品种—— 2024.11.12 | 内需预期向好，选择结 | | 3 、行业周报 (10.28-11.3): 24 | 冬春 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in various vitamins, particularly folic acid, which saw a price surge from 182.5 CNY/kg to 345 CNY/kg, marking an 89% increase [3][12] - BASF's second distribution plan for vitamins A and E was released following an incident, with prices for feed-grade vitamin A set at no less than 172 CNY/kg and vitamin E at 145 CNY/kg [2][47] - The report indicates a recovery in profits for white-feathered chickens, while pig farming profits have slightly declined [3][61] Summary by Sections Vitamin Prices Overview - Vitamin E price as of November 29 is 147.5 CNY/kg, up 13.5% from the previous month [3][12] - Vitamin A price is 161 CNY/kg, down 5.3% from the previous month [3][12] - Vitamin D3 price is 260 CNY/kg, up 7.2% from the previous month [3][12] - Folic acid price is 345 CNY/kg, up 89% from the previous month [3][12] Downstream Demand Tracking - As of October, the number of breeding sows in China is 40.73 million, a 0.3% increase from September [59] - The average price for white-feathered chickens is 7.7 CNY/kg, with a profit of -1.58 CNY per bird, showing a slight recovery [61] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from rising prices of vitamins A and E, such as Zhejiang Medicine and New Hope Liuhe, as well as those benefiting from folic acid price increases like Shengda Biology and Tianxin Pharmaceutical [69]