华福证券 证券研究报告 | 行业投资策略 银行 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2024年12月5日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | 银行业 | 2025 年度策略 | | | | 关注股份行子板块的投资机会 证券分析师： 张 宇 执业证书编号： S0210524050005 郭其伟 执业证书编号： S0210523080001 付思雨 执业证书编号： S0210524080005 | | | | | | | | 联系人： | | | | 谢洁仪 S0210123090012 | 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 ➢ 预计2025年银行板块仍然攻守兼备，但是相对收益难比今年。在经济从衰退周期转向复苏 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [6]. Core Insights - The real estate industry experienced a tightening policy cycle during Trump's first term (2016-2020), despite expectations for a loosening cycle due to export constraints [2][13]. - The real estate chain continues to contribute positively to the economy even under strict policy controls, with a shift towards a high turnover model among developers to cope with liquidity pressures [3][44]. - The upcoming Trump 2.0 era is expected to accelerate trade policies, potentially impacting the real estate sector further [4][55]. - The current downturn in the real estate market is negatively affecting livelihoods and dragging down economic performance, necessitating a loosening of supply and demand policies [5][49]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Trump's First Term and Domestic Real Estate Regulation - Trump's first term coincided with a tightening policy cycle in the real estate sector, initiated by trade sanctions against China in 2018 [2][13]. - Despite the tightening, the real estate chain has shown resilience, contributing positively to the economy through increased demand for upstream industries and stimulating downstream consumption [3][44]. Section 2: New Cycle and Unconventional Recovery Path - The recent election results indicate a reduced resistance to Trump's policies, which may lead to quicker implementation of trade measures affecting the real estate sector [4][55]. - The current real estate downturn has resulted in negative contributions to GDP, with a need for policy adjustments to stimulate recovery [5][49]. - The necessity for counter-cyclical policy adjustments is highlighted, with expectations for monetary and fiscal policy easing to support the sector [5][49]. Section 3: Economic Contributions and Challenges - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP has been significant, averaging a 10% contribution rate from 2016 to 2020, despite the challenges posed by regulatory measures [46][49]. - The high turnover model adopted by developers has led to revenue growth, although net profits have been squeezed, benefiting upstream and downstream industries [44][46].

华福证券 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 美容护理行业 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2024年12月04日 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 【华福商社】毛戈平招股说明书整理 ——高成长高端美妆龙头，港股上市开启新纪元 | | | | 证券分析师： 赵雅楠 执业证书编号：S0210524050007 高兴 执业证书编号：S0210522110002 | 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 公司产品立足于创始人的东方美学理念，定位高端市场。创始人毛戈平所倡导的将光影美学与东方美学深度融合的理念， 为企业在美妆产品开发方面奠定了成功的路线图。毛戈平化妆品股份有限公司的前身是成立于2000年的杭州毛戈平。公 司旗下拥有两个主要品牌：MAOGEPING和至爱终生，业务涵 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that all six sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical index recorded positive returns, indicating strong performance in the industry [1] - According to the "2024 China Pharmaceutical R&D Blue Book" published by Yaozhi Network, the Chinese pharmaceutical industry demonstrated vitality in 2023 across policy, market, research and development, and investment [1][10] - The report notes that the market size is expanding, with sales growth in public medical institutions and retail pharmacies, while the oncology drug market shows stable growth, and the cardiovascular and metabolic sectors are experiencing contraction [1][10] Group 2 - In terms of research and development, the number of clinical applications for innovative Class 1 drugs reached a historical high, with oncology and hematology being hot areas of focus [10][11] - The report indicates that Chinese pharmaceutical companies have made breakthroughs in international markets, with license-out transactions surpassing license-in transactions, reflecting the growing international influence of Chinese drug companies [10][11] - The investment landscape in 2023 saw a decline in both the number and amount of financing events, indicating a more cautious investment attitude in the pharmaceutical sector [10][11] Group 3 - The report tracks the recent inclusion of 24 non-reimbursed drugs into centralized procurement, which may lead to comprehensive price reductions in self-funded medical care [28][29] - The 2024 adjustment of the national medical insurance drug list added 91 new drugs, expected to reduce patient costs by over 50 billion yuan, with a focus on innovative drugs and improved coverage for critical areas [32][33] - The report emphasizes that the successful negotiation rate for new drugs exceeded 90%, highlighting the government's commitment to enhancing the accessibility of innovative treatments [32][33]

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 宏 观 研 究 行业比较专刊 下游消费延续复苏，中游行业景气回升 ➢ 核心观点 整体来看，下游消费延续复苏，中游行业景气有所回升，上游景气度则有 所分化。（1）上游行业景气有所分化。建材中的玻璃和水泥价格冲高。 我们跟踪的主要化工产品的价格大多出现了修复。有色金属方面，铜、铝 期货价格小幅下行，稀土价格指数转跌，但是碳酸锂的价格在久跌后近两 个月出现了回升。11月焦煤和动力煤价格小幅回落；钢铁价格总体波动幅 度较小。WTI原油月均价格处于相对低位，库存则小幅上升。（2）中游 行业多数景气回升。由于本轮电子的大周期，全球和亚洲半导体销售额保 持高增长。交通运输方面，快递收入和业务量同比双双增加。机械重卡方 面，挖掘机销量持续高增，重卡销量跌幅收窄。动力电池产量和装车量保 持高增长。光伏价格仍保持低位运行，部分产品实现止跌。随着后续行业 龙头带头涨价及行业自律逐步实现，光伏产业链价格有望出现回升。 （3）下游消费延续恢复态势。随着一系列消费刺激政策，社零同比继续 增长。其中家电和汽车行业直接 ...

Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is expected to gradually recover in 2025, driven by policy support, with some industries potentially completing supply-side adjustments and exiting deflation [1] - Overseas, the US economy is expected to outperform Europe, with a weak upward inventory cycle, but uncertainties such as potential tariff impacts and Japan's interest rate hikes remain [1] - The report focuses on four key areas: debt resolution, restructuring, certain growth opportunities, and supply-side improvements, with a particular emphasis on restructuring [1] M&A and Restructuring Trends - M&A and restructuring activities have become more active, with a noticeable profit effect, especially as IPO activities slow down [2] - There is a seesaw effect between M&A and IPOs, with M&A becoming a viable alternative for companies when IPO exits are delayed [2] - Since August 2023, regulatory policies have tightened IPOs, leading to increased support for M&A and restructuring in 2024 [2] - The number of companies announcing restructuring plans has risen since July 2024, with the restructuring index significantly outperforming the Wind All-A Index [2] Policy Support for M&A and Restructuring - In 2024, policies have actively supported M&A and restructuring, particularly through documents like the new "National Nine Articles" in April, the "Tech Eight Articles" in June, and the "M&A Six Articles" in September [3] - These policies aim to improve review efficiency, diversify payment methods, increase valuation tolerance, and support cross-industry M&A, especially for unprofitable assets [3] - M&A and restructuring are seen as effective tools for market value management, helping companies transition to new productive forces and improve industrial concentration [3] Seven Investment Clues for Restructuring 1. **Asset Injection within the Same Controlling Entity**: Companies that have halted or terminated IPOs may inject assets into listed companies under the same controlling entity [3] 2. **Previously Failed M&A Attempts**: Companies that failed in previous M&A attempts may restart restructuring efforts under current supportive policies [4] 3. **Change in Controlling Shareholder**: A change in controlling shareholder may lead to new asset injections or strategic realignments [4] 4. **Market Value Management for Long-Term Undervalued Companies**: Companies with long-term undervaluation may use restructuring to improve quality and valuation [6] 5. **Shell Resource Value**: In a tight IPO environment, companies with low market capitalization and clean balance sheets may serve as shell resources for reverse takeovers [6] 6. **Market Share Expansion by Industry Leaders**: Leading companies with strong cash positions but weak profitability may use M&A to expand market share [7] 7. **Local State-Owned Enterprises**: Local state-owned enterprises, supported by regional policies, may actively engage in M&A to enhance market value and industrial efficiency [7] Regional Policy Support - Regions like Xinjiang, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have introduced policies to encourage M&A and restructuring among local state-owned enterprises [65] - These policies aim to improve market value management, enhance industrial concentration, and promote technological innovation [65]

Group 1 - The report anticipates a gradual recovery of the domestic economy in 2025, driven by policy support, with certain industries likely to complete supply-side adjustments and emerge from deflation [3] - The U.S. economy is expected to perform better than Europe, with a weak upward trend in the inventory cycle, although uncertainties such as tariff impacts and geopolitical risks remain [3][4] - The report aims to identify structural opportunities in 2025, focusing on debt reduction, restructuring, certainty in growth, and supply-side improvements [3] Group 2 - In the U.S., the arrival of the Trump 2.0 era is expected to increase uncertainties in trade, fiscal, and monetary policies, potentially escalating global trade tensions and affecting exports and inflation levels [4] - The S&P 500 earnings growth is projected to rise by 13.6% year-on-year in 2025, supported by tax cuts and deregulation policies from the Trump administration [4] - The probability of a severe economic slowdown globally in 2025 is considered low, with a decreasing likelihood of a recession in the U.S. [4] Group 3 - Japan is unlikely to continue raising interest rates in 2025 due to structural issues such as an aging population and weak domestic demand, despite some short-term inflationary pressures [5] - The Bank of Japan is expected to take a cautious approach to monetary policy, influenced by uncertainties stemming from U.S. policies and trade tariffs [5] Group 4 - The Eurozone's economic growth in 2025 may be weaker than expected due to geopolitical risks and trade friction, with the GDP growth rate for Q3 2024 projected at 1.5% [5]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity in the stock market improved in November, with a total fundraising amount of 19.2 billion yuan in the primary market, representing a month-on-month increase of 58.6% [3][21][22] - In the primary market, the IPO fundraising scale was 5.2 billion yuan, up 4.9% month-on-month, while the fundraising from additional share issuance reached 13.9 billion yuan, a significant increase of 96.1% [3][22] - The net reduction in shareholding by major shareholders in the secondary market was 28.6 billion yuan in November, which is an increase of 155.7 billion yuan compared to the previous month [3][28] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 1.9676 trillion yuan in November, a decrease of 2.3% compared to the previous month, but an increase of 122.4% year-on-year [3][35] - The issuance scale of equity funds reached a new high in nearly two years, with a total of 108.6 billion yuan in new fund issuance, an increase of 91.1 billion yuan month-on-month [3][39] - The stock investment ratio of open-end funds was 68.43% at the end of November, up from 67.37% at the end of October, indicating a stable investment stance [3][42] Group 3 - The margin financing and securities lending balance reached 1.8444 trillion yuan by the end of November, an increase of 135.5 billion yuan from the end of the previous month, reflecting a gradual warming of market sentiment [3][46] - The report anticipates that the liquidity environment in the A-share market is likely to continue improving, supported by the ongoing issuance of broad-based index funds and the significant increase in equity fund issuance [3][48][50]

Overall Situation - The total issuance scale of funds in November saw a significant rebound, with 1,474 billion units issued, an increase of 1,141 billion units from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 171 billion units [12][14] - Equity funds dominated the issuance, accounting for 73.7% of the total, which is a 21.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [14] Active Equity Funds - The issuance scale of active equity funds improved slightly, with 49 billion units issued in November, although this remains at a low level [21] - Among the 15 new active equity funds, 11 were mixed equity funds, totaling 31.8 billion units, which represents 64.4% of the active equity fund issuance [23] Passive Equity Funds - The issuance scale of passive equity funds saw a substantial recovery, with 1,037 billion units issued, an increase of 892 billion units from the previous month [29] - The majority of the 57 new passive equity funds were passive index funds, indicating a preference for strategies that track market indices [32] Bond Funds - The issuance scale of bond funds increased to 375 billion units, a rise of 240 billion units from the previous month, although it remains at a low level compared to historical data [36] - Among the 20 new bond funds, passive index bond funds accounted for the largest share, with 169 billion units issued, representing 45.1% of the total bond fund issuance [36] QDII Funds - The issuance scale of QDII funds decreased to 0.15 billion units, a decline of 2 billion units from the previous month, reflecting ongoing volatility in this segment [41] FOF Funds - The issuance scale of FOF funds increased significantly to 6 billion units, with 3 new funds launched, indicating a recovery in this category [46]

Group 1: US Stock Market Overview - In Q3 2024, the S&P 500 revenue growth was 5.5%, slightly up from 5.3% in Q2 2024, indicating a stable upward trend since H2 2023 [3][18]. - The EPS growth for the S&P 500 in Q3 2024 was 5.9%, down from 11.4% in Q2 2024, but still above the 10-year median of 4.4% [3][25]. - The ROE (TTM) for the S&P 500 in Q3 2024 was 18.7%, unchanged from Q2 2024, reflecting a solid profitability level [3][37]. Group 2: Sector Performance in US Market - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and healthcare sectors led the revenue growth in Q3 2024, with information technology at 12.9% and healthcare at 10.3% [3][21]. - EPS growth in Q3 2024 was highest in the communications services sector at 23.2%, followed by healthcare at 13.6% [3][30]. - The energy sector faced significant challenges, with a revenue decline of -5.4%, attributed to pressure on energy prices [3][21]. Group 3: European Stock Market Overview - In Q3 2024, the Stoxx Europe 600 revenue growth was -1.4%, a decline from 0.2% in Q2 2024, indicating weak revenue performance [4][11]. - The EPS growth for European stocks improved to 4.2% in Q3 2024, a significant recovery from -9.9% in Q2 2024 [4][12]. - The ROE (TTM) for European stocks in Q3 2024 was 13.3%, down from 13.7% in the previous quarter, showing a lag compared to US stocks [4][15]. Group 4: 2025 Outlook for US and European Markets - The outlook for the US stock market remains positive for 2025, driven by strong economic resilience, although caution is advised regarding potential tariff impacts [5][6]. - European stocks are expected to see earnings improvement in 2025, but are unlikely to surpass US stock performance due to ongoing tariff threats and lower valuation levels [6][26]. - The valuation of European stocks is currently at a historical low, presenting potential value for conservative investors [6][27].