华福证券 策略定期研究 2024 年 11 月 10 日 策略研 从自主定价出发，可寻找哪些脉络？ 投资要点： 市场思考：本周市场强势上涨，全 A 收涨 7.11%。本周市场热度高涨， 赚钱效应明显，成交额连续四日保持在 2 万亿以上，周五上升至 2.7 万亿。 市场呈现普涨状态，从指数情况看，创业板指、科创 50 收益居前，上证 50、中证红利收益靠后；从风格情况看，科技（TMT）和先进制造收益居 前，消费和周期收益靠后。本周 31 个申万一级行业全部上涨，其中计算机、 国防军工、非银金融领涨，煤炭、公用事业、银行涨幅靠后。 力度最大化债新政出台，明年实施更加给力的财政政策。11 月 8 日下 午，十四届全国人大常委会第 12 次会议举行了闭幕会。会议表决通过了全 国人大常委会关于批准《国务院关于提请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换 存量隐性债务的议案》的决议。化债将打通地方发展资金链条，为经济发 展腾挪空间。面对土地出让收入下滑、税收收入增长不及预期的难题，地 方化债资源有限，财政政策生效存在掣肘。而隐性债务显性化可大幅解约 地方利息支出，据财政部估算，本次化债五年累计可节约 6000 亿元左右。 化债有利于 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to focus on the risks brought by the slowdown in sector rotation, which may affect market dynamics [1] - Current market structure does not reflect the improvement in domestic demand driven by real estate, although there is a significant potential for trend improvement in consumption [1][2] - Export data indicates a strengthening of the US globalized system towards internal circulation, while non-US economies are weakening, suggesting that China may need to expand its economy to stabilize demand in Belt and Road economies and accelerate globalization [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant improvement in China's export growth, with October's export amount showing a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, up from 2.4%, largely due to the resolution of cargo backlogs caused by extreme weather [13][14] - The debt resolution policy is expected to limit the downward space for the economy and market, with a new policy package aimed at alleviating local debt pressure and reducing interest expenses [14][2] Group 3 - The report notes that the market has seen a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.51%, and the ChiNext Index and STAR Market leading with gains exceeding 8% [18] - The report indicates that the financial and technology sectors are leading the market, while cyclical sectors have shown relatively less growth [23][24] - There is a focus on the potential for trend improvement in consumption, with an emphasis on internet consumption as a key area for domestic demand growth [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization by CATL and the recent enactment of the Energy Law, which is expected to boost the photovoltaic sector [1][14]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in battery demand due to the stabilization of downstream component prices and increased order volumes in the photovoltaic market [14]. - The offshore wind sector is expected to see high demand, with significant projects underway, including a 500MW offshore wind project in Hebei [21][22]. - The energy storage sector may experience a short-term surge in installations due to political changes in the U.S., while long-term growth may slow down [26][27]. - The hydrogen energy sector is poised for growth following the Energy Law's provisions supporting hydrogen development and the upcoming IPO of Guofu Hydrogen Energy [45][47]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The Guangzhou Auto Show is approaching, with major new models set to launch, including the XPeng P7+ which saw over 30,000 pre-orders within hours of its launch [7][8]. - CATL is increasing its investment in solid-state battery research, aiming for a significant improvement in energy density [8][9]. 2. Photovoltaic Sector - The Energy Law, effective January 1, 2025, aims to promote green and low-carbon energy development, benefiting the photovoltaic industry [14][15]. - The photovoltaic battery market is experiencing a rebound, with expectations of price recovery due to improved order volumes [16]. 3. Wind Power Sector - The offshore wind sector is witnessing significant project developments, including a 500MW project in Hebei and a major contract signed by Huadian for a wind power project in Guangdong [21][22][23]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the supply chain for offshore wind projects [24]. 4. Energy Storage Sector - The potential election of Trump may lead to a short-term rush in energy storage installations, while long-term growth may face challenges [26][27]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined plans to cultivate several large-scale energy storage enterprises by 2027 [28][31]. 5. Electric Power Equipment and Industrial Control Sector - Three ultra-high voltage projects have commenced in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating steady progress in this area [33][34]. - The report notes a significant peak-to-valley electricity price difference in 21 regions, which may impact energy consumption patterns [35]. 6. Hydrogen Energy Sector - The Energy Law emphasizes the development of hydrogen energy, with supportive policies being implemented in various provinces [45][46]. - Guofu Hydrogen Energy is set to go public, with significant projects in the pipeline for hydrogen production [47][50].

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant impact of the recent U.S. elections and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with the Russell 2000 index rising by 5.84% following Trump's victory and proposed tax reforms [1][16] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis points rate cut to a range of 4.50%-4.75%, marking the second consecutive cut, and indicated a cautious approach to future monetary policy under the new administration [1][18] - Economic indicators show resilience, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for October at 56, above previous values and expectations, and an increase in wholesale sales month-on-month [17][18] Group 2 - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains strong, with initial jobless claims rising slightly to 221,000 and continuing claims at 1.892 million, indicating ongoing employment stability [17][18] - The market anticipates a 64.6% probability of another 25 basis points rate cut in December, reflecting expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy [22][18] - Global equity markets showed mixed performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index leading gains at 6.75%, while the UK FTSE 100 experienced a decline of 1.28% [29][33]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 3821.64 points, up 8.55% week-on-week. The semiconductor materials index rose 12.05%, while the lithium battery index increased by 15.93% [2][8] - TSMC's CoWoS monthly capacity is expected to double next year, with Nvidia projected to occupy 50% of this capacity. The global advanced packaging market is anticipated to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.9% expected by 2028 [3][24] - Meirui New Materials announced the production of qualified products from its HDI monomer unit, marking a significant milestone in its polyurethane industrial park [3][27] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Market Review - The Wind New Materials Index and various sub-indices, including semiconductor materials and lithium battery indices, showed significant week-on-week increases, indicating a robust market performance [2][8] 2. Key Company Weekly Performance Review - Top performers included Yanggu Huatai (20.17%), Bayi Shikong (19.73%), and Jingrui Electric Materials (17.49%). Conversely, Zhonghuan shares fell by 1.87% [19][20] 3. Recent Industry Hotspots - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is set to double, driven by increasing demand from major tech companies [3][24] - The return of Trump to the White House may have profound implications for the Chinese semiconductor industry, potentially increasing export controls and pressures on semiconductor alliances [24] - A breakthrough in ion exchange membrane technology was reported, which could enhance energy efficiency in flow batteries [25][26] - BASF and Syensqo announced significant business adjustments, including divestitures and layoffs, to better align with market demands [26][27] - Meirui New Materials has commenced production at its new facility, achieving performance targets [27] 4. Related Data Tracking - The semiconductor index rose to 5333.99 points, reflecting a 7.83% increase. In October, China's integrated circuit exports reached $13.157 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.7% [28][29]

华福证券 房地产 "白名单"项目扩围增效，增量政策加速落地 周度观点： 两部召开"白名单"扩围增效培训，多地授信持续投放 金融监管总局、住房城乡建设部联合召开"白名单"项目扩围增效政策培训 会，会议指出，对于合格项目要做到"应进尽进"，对于进入"白名单" 的项目放宽做到做到"能早尽早"。分地区看，（1）深圳：深圳银行已审 批"白名单"项目 67 个、审批通过金额超过 800 亿元，授信金额位居全国 各大城市前列；（2）河南：截至 10 月 30 日，项目授信投放率已达 70.04%， 贷款投放规模超 750 亿元；（3）江苏：截至 10 月 28 日，"白名单"机制 已向银行机构推送项目 300 余个，目前已落地贷款近 700 亿元，项目审批 放款率已近七成。（4）四川：截至 10 月 24 日，已对 241 个"白名单"项 目放款近 400 亿元，其中 50%以上是民营企业，惠及购房者 22 万户。 我们认为，"白名单"项目扩围增效有利于促进开工住房项目建成交付， 保障购房者权益，缓解开发商流动性风险。 新增"化债"资源10万亿，专项债收储与优化税收政策加速落地 11 月 8 日，全国人大常委会宣布新增 3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The automotive sector is recommended to focus on leading vehicle manufacturers, the Tesla supply chain, and the domestic robotics industry chain [2][4] - The recent market performance shows a significant increase in the automotive index, with a rise of 7.29% [2] - The report highlights strong sales growth in the automotive sector, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, which is expected to grow by 39% year-on-year in Q4 [3][4] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The automotive index increased by 7.29%, ranking 8th out of 31 sectors [2] - Retail sales of narrow passenger cars reached 2.261 million units in October, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [3] - The wholesale volume for narrow passenger cars was 2.732 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [3] Industry Changes - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to drive sales by over 1.4 million units this year, with a total expected annual sales of 22.8 million units, a 1.8% increase year-on-year [3] - Domestic sales of new energy passenger cars are projected to reach 3.55 million units in Q4, a 39% increase year-on-year, with an annual total of 10.68 million units, up 38% [3] Market Review - The report indicates a strong bullish sentiment for the automotive sector, particularly with the upcoming Guangzhou Auto Show and the anticipated performance of the Tesla supply chain [4] - Recommendations include focusing on leading manufacturers such as Geely, BYD, and Li Auto, as well as companies involved in new technologies like autonomous driving and robotics [4][6] Investment Strategy - The report suggests prioritizing investments in leading vehicle manufacturers and companies within the Tesla and Huawei robotics supply chains [6][10] - Specific companies to watch include BYD, Geely, and various robotics firms such as Sanhua Intelligent Control and Beite Technology [6][10] Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy index increased by 9.74%, with significant policy support expected to enhance investment certainty in this sector [11] - Upcoming events like the Zhuhai Airshow are anticipated to catalyze further developments in low-altitude projects [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from improving policies and a gradual recovery in consumption, with specific recommendations across various sub-sectors [1][3] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring quarterly performance and long-term goals of companies within the industry [1] Summary by Sections 1. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) - The report indicates a positive outlook for the baijiu sector due to favorable consumption policies and improving expectations, despite short-term volume and price pressures [8][10] - Key companies to watch include Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, with a focus on their performance in Q3 and future targets [10] 2. Beer - The beer sector has shown an 8.7% increase, outperforming the food and beverage sector [11] - Recommendations include Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, focusing on high-end products and efficiency improvements [12] 3. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is recovering, with specific companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Xiangpiaopiao showing potential for growth [13][15] - The report emphasizes the need to select companies with high growth potential and strong management capabilities [13] 4. Ready-to-Drink Alcohol - The ready-to-drink alcohol market is expected to grow steadily, driven by changing consumer habits and new consumption scenarios [17][18] - BaiRun Co. is highlighted as a leading company in this sector, with significant growth potential [18] 5. Dairy Products - The report recommends Yili Group, focusing on its product structure optimization and margin improvement [21][19] - The dairy sector is expected to face challenges with raw milk prices but remains competitive among major players [19] 6. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with recommendations for companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang [22] 7. Pet Products - The pet product market is showing growth, particularly in exports, with companies like Zhongchong and Peidi being recommended [40][42] - The report notes a competitive environment but anticipates steady market growth [41] 8. Snacks - The snack industry is benefiting from channel innovations, particularly in online and bulk purchasing [30][31] - Companies like Three Squirrels and Jin Zai Food are highlighted for their growth potential [31] 9. Sweeteners - The report discusses the rising demand for natural sweeteners, recommending companies like Rhein Biotech and Huan Kang [34][35] 10. Catering - The catering sector is recovering, with notable performance from companies like Haidilao and Yum China during peak holiday seasons [36][39] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative business models in driving growth [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [2] Core Insights - The upcoming Guangzhou International Auto Show from November 15 to 24, 2024, is expected to showcase a record number of vehicles, including 78 global debuts and 512 new energy vehicles, indicating a strong focus on electrification and intelligence in the automotive sector [1][9] - The automotive industry is experiencing a boost in quality supply, which is likely to sustain the industry's growth momentum [1][10] - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 1.8 percentage points during the week of November 4 to 8, 2024, with a weekly increase of 7.3% [34] Market Performance - For the week of November 4 to 8, 2024, the automotive sector increased by 7.3%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 5.5%, placing the automotive sector 8th among 31 sectors in terms of performance [34] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 19.5%, ranking 7th among the 31 sectors [34] - Sub-sectors such as passenger vehicles, commercial cargo vehicles, and automotive services saw increases of 6.5%, 9.5%, and 10.2% respectively during the same week [36] Key Industry Data - In October 2023, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.361 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 12% [41] - New energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 1.284 million units in October, marking a 67% year-on-year increase and a 14% month-on-month increase [41] - Wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in October totaled 2.774 million units, up 13% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month [41] Notable New Vehicles - The report highlights several key new vehicle launches expected at the Guangzhou Auto Show, including: - The "Zun Jie" sedan, a high-end brand from Huawei and JAC Motors, expected to compete with luxury brands like BMW and Mercedes [13][20] - BYD's "Xia" MPV, featuring advanced hybrid technology and a competitive price range [15] - The "Fang Cheng Bao Bao 8" SUV, which will offer a high-performance hybrid system and advanced driving features [17] - The "Tengshi N9" luxury SUV, equipped with a powerful hybrid system and advanced suspension technology [18] - The "Yun Wang U7," a high-performance electric sedan with cutting-edge autonomous driving capabilities [22]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The consumer electronics sector is at a turning point driven by AI innovations and continuous product launches from major players [4] - AI is expected to first impact mature consumer electronics like smartphones, leading to increased sales and price growth [4] - The introduction of AI hardware is accelerating, with major companies like Apple and Baidu making significant advancements in AI-enabled devices [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The consumer electronics index rose by 5.6% during the week of November 4 to November 8, compared to a 5.5% increase in the CSI 300 index and a 9.01% rise in the electronics index [2] - Notable stock performances include significant gains in Huawei's supply chain companies, such as Guanghong Technology (+23.00%) and Yunzuka Technology (+17.58%) [2] Company Developments - Pengding Holdings reported a 10% year-on-year increase in revenue from July to October, indicating strong overall demand despite a slight decline in October revenue [3] - Major tech companies are accelerating their AI hardware initiatives, with Apple testing AI smart glasses and Baidu set to launch AI smart glasses with advanced features [3] Market Trends - AI is expected to shorten the replacement cycle for smartphones, leading to stable annual shipment growth [4] - The exploration of new hardware forms, such as AR/VR and AIoT products, is anticipated to accelerate due to AI integration [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the Apple supply chain, including Luxshare Precision, Dongshan Precision, and Pengding Holdings, among others [7] - It also highlights potential in the smart speaker market and the AIPC and XR industry chains [7]