华福证券 晶澳科技（002459.SZ） Q2 出货量保持增长，经营性现金流转正 投资要点： 业绩点评 公司发布 24H1 业绩公告，实现营业收入 373.6 亿元，同比-9%； 归母净利-8.7亿元，扣非归母净利-8.2亿元；其中Q2实现营业收入213.9 亿元，同比+5%，环比+34%；归母净利-3.9 亿元，环比+19%；扣非归 母净利-4.5 亿元，环比-22%。 24Q2 电池组件出货环增，全年出货量保持高增 公司24H1光伏组件业务营收353亿元，同比-10%，出货量超38GW （含自用 1GW），同比+59%，其中组件海外出货量占比约 54%（欧 洲占比 20%-25%，美洲 15%-20%，其他区域包括亚太 15%左右），N 型组件出货占比约 60%。我们预计公司 24 年全年电池组件出货 85GW， 同比增长超 50% ，且预计下半年 N 型占比将进一步提升。 N 型产能快速爬坡，海外产能及渠道布局领先 公司 24H1 内 N 型产能快速达产，产品良率、电池转换效率大幅 提升，最新的 N 型倍秀（Bycium+）电池量产转换效率已达到 26.5%； 生产成本明显下降，大尺寸电池在转换效率和生 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the strong expectations for overseas interest rate cuts may open up downward space for domestic interest rates, potentially leading to a release in housing demand. In the context of improving global liquidity and ongoing easing of real estate policies, it is recommended to focus on leading real estate developers such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and regional state-owned enterprises [7][8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - On September 12, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.3%, while the real estate sector rose by 0.2%. Among sub-sectors, commercial real estate and industrial real estate increased by 1.3% and 0.4%, respectively, while residential development and property management decreased by 0.1% and 0.3% [2] Individual Stock Performance - The top five gainers in the real estate sector were Airport Holdings (10.2%), Hainan Expressway (4.81%), China Communications Construction (3.78%), Wan Tong Development (2.88%), and Shanghai Lingang (2.16%). The top five losers were Rongfeng Holdings (-4.35%), Gemdale Corporation (-3.84%), Te Fa Service (-2.20%), Wo Ai Wo Jia (-1.65%), and Wanye Enterprise (-1.37%) [3][10] Transaction Data - The cumulative number of transactions this week was 7,187 units, a decrease of 1.5% compared to the same week last year. First-tier cities saw an increase of 15.8%, while second-tier cities decreased by 19.4%, and third-tier cities increased by 1.7%. The cumulative transaction area was 739,000 square meters, down 3.6% from the previous week [4][13] Industry News - Wuhan's Qiaokou District launched the third phase of the "House Exchange for House" program on September 10, optimizing the range of existing housing for exchange. This policy aims to support both first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade, thereby revitalizing the new and second-hand housing markets [5] Individual Stock Announcements - Tian Di Yuan's controlling shareholder, Gao Ke Group, transferred 100% of its stake in Gao Xin Real Estate to Gao Ke Real Estate without compensation. After the transfer, Gao Xin Real Estate remains a controlling shareholder of the company [6] Individual Stock Valuation - The report lists the price-to-book (PB) ratios of key real estate companies, with China Communications Construction at 3.67, followed by Beijing Investment Development at 1.77, and Lujiazui at 1.49 [14]

华福证券 机械设备 2024 年 09 月 12 日 l 研 机械设备 哈里斯大选辩论表现超预期，出口链公司有望反 转 投资要点： 大选辩论后民调哈里斯占优，大选形势有望反转 据央视新闻，美国时间 9 月 10 日晚，民主党总统候选人哈里斯和 共和党总统候选人特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州费城展开首场电视辩论。美 国 CNN 民调显示，有 63%的受访者认为哈里斯表现更佳，37%认为特 朗普表现较好。在辩论之前，看好两人的受访者各占一半。此外，先 前六月份的首场辩论结束后，特朗普支持率达 67%，拜登支持率 33%。 团队成员 分析师： 俞能飞(S0210524040008) ynf30520@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 曹钰涵(S0210124050059) cyh30565@hfzq.com.cn 二者对华强硬表现一致，但实施路线有所区别 两人都关注美国制造业，保护美国工人。然而，两者在对华策略 尚存分歧，哈里斯力推拜登政府"小院高墙"说，主张对攸关"战略 竞争"的关键科技加以限制；特朗普则将领域推广到一般消费品领域， 目标是对"不公平的贸易"总体加以"纠正"，从而减少贸易逆差。特 朗普对华关税政策更为激进， ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve is set to initiate its fourth rate-cutting cycle of the century in the second half of the year, with a 65% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 35% probability of a 50 basis point cut in September [1][15][4] - Historical data shows that global stock markets tend to perform well in the early stages of a rate-cutting cycle, but often decline in the later stages [1][18] - The report suggests that the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession is low, which could positively impact equity market performance in the short term [1][20] Group 2 - The analysis of past rate-cutting cycles reveals that major global indices generally experienced declines throughout the entire cycle, but performed better in the initial months following the cuts [1][18] - Specific statistics from previous cycles indicate that the S&P 500 index fell by 27.4% over the entire rate-cutting cycle, but saw a 2.5% increase in the month following the cut [1][18] - The report emphasizes that external economic shocks during past cycles contributed to poor market performance in the later stages, while the absence of such shocks currently suggests a more favorable outlook [1][19][20]

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 华福证券 核心需求不弱，衰退交易或暂缓： 美国 8 月 CPI 数据点评 事件： 8月美国CPI同比2.5%，预期2.5%，前值2.9%；CPI环比0.2%，持平预期和 前值；核心CPI同比3.2%，持平预期和前值；核心CPI环比0.3%，预期和 前值均为0.2%。 投资要点： 能源和商品价格持续走弱，带动8月CPI数据下行，但核心服务继续回 升，表明美国经济内生需求并不弱：8月美国CPI同比较前值大幅走弱 （2.9%→2.5%），反映通胀压力边际走弱，但主要源于能源和商品带动， 核心CPI环比与上月持平、同比略高于预期，反映内需仍不弱，5月以来的 金融条件放松正逐步传导至经济端。从主要分项看，食品项环比边际走弱 （0.2%→0.1%），能源项环比再度大幅转负（0%→-0.8%），主要源于7 月以来在特朗普交易和美国经济衰退交易的双重作用下，国际油价明显下 跌，这也是8月通胀大幅下行的重要原因；核心商品跌幅略有收窄（- 0.3%→-0.2%），其中运输产品（新车和二手车）降幅减小（-0.8%→- ...

华福证券 证券研究报告|行业深度报告 电子 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2024年9月12日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | —— | 折叠屏插上AI翅膀，有望加速终端换机潮 折叠屏终端行业深度报告 | | | | 证券分析师： 杨钟 执业证书编号： S0210522110003 戴晶晶 执业证书编号： S0210523040003 | 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 ➢ 智能终端重要创新，折叠手机引领成长。随着近年来消费电子创新乏力，全球智能手机市场趋于饱和，所能带给消费者的惊喜逐渐减弱，从而导 致用户换机周期拉长，产业链略显疲态。而折叠屏手机作为不可多得的形态创新终端，正日益受到产业链及消费者的追捧。凭借诸多品牌的靓丽 表现，以及全产业链的迭代创新，重量、折痕、厚度等诸多产品痛点正在被解决，折叠屏手机有望成为智能终端最具成 ...

华福证券 电子 2024 年 09 月 12 日 电子 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 OpenAI 访问量持续走强， "草莓"大模型预热 中-算力周跟踪 投资要点： 本周 CPU/GPU 板块普涨，云计算板块出现分化行情。（1）CPU/GPU 板块：本周（0909-0911）AMD+11.54%，英伟达+13.69%，英特尔+3.97%， 海光信息+3.96%。黄仁勋表示最新一代人工智能芯片 Blackwell 的需求强 劲，英伟达（0911）单日+8.15%。目前 AI 需求高涨背景下算力芯片的基本 面仍然强劲，可关注草莓模型对 AI 推理需求的积极影响。（2）云计算板 块：甲骨文+10.84%，亚马逊+7.66%，微软+5.31%，商汤科技-8.85%，其 中甲骨文（0910）单日+11.44%。当地时间 9 月 9 日盘后，甲骨文公布的 FY25Q1 业绩显示，其季度营收和利润超出市场预期，表明人工智能需求 继续推动公司云计算业务，受此消息影响股价得到提振。目前，云基础设 施的需求远超供应，我们持续看好云计算服务在 AI 算力需求高涨背景下的 长期发展潜力。 一、AI 大模型跟踪 最新一 ...

华福证券 银行 2024 年 09 月 12 日 नार 银行 利润增速稳定——42 家上市银行中报数据点评 投资要点： 业绩：营收增速边际放缓，利润增速相对稳定 二季度营收增长有所放缓。从二季度单季度营收增速较一季度的 变化来看，25 家上市银行边际放缓，17 家上市银行边际抬升。整体来 看，全部上市银行的平均变化幅度为-2.2pct。 二季度归母净利润增速相对稳定。从二季度单季度归母净利润增 速较一季度来看，25 家上市银行边际放缓，17 家上市银行边际提升。 整体来看，全部上市银行的平均变化幅度为-0.6pct，保持相对稳定的 状态。 净息差：继续下滑，但预计同比降幅会逐渐企稳 从二季度单季净息差较一季度的变化来看，33 家上市银行边际下 降，9 家上市银行边际抬升。预计净息差同比降幅会逐渐趋稳。整体 来看，受 LPR 调降、市场竞争加剧等影响，二季度净息差环比继续下 滑，平均变化幅度为-4.5bp。 展望下一阶段，我们认为净息差仍会继续下滑，但是受负债端利 好加速释放，预计净息差同比降幅有望企稳。 贷款投放：增长放缓，由规模思维转向结构思维 从上半年贷款增速较一季度的变化来看，35 家银行均呈现边际放 ...

华福证券 240911 日报：8 月 40 城租金环比上涨、同比下跌 投资要点： 板块表现： 9 月 11 日，沪深 300 指数收跌，房地产板块收涨。截至收盘，沪 深 300 指数下跌 0.3%，申万房地产指数上涨 0.2%。分板块来看，商业 地产、产业地产板块上涨 1.3%、0.4%，住宅开发、物业管理分别下跌 0.1%、0.3%。 个股表现： 截至收盘，房地产板块个股涨幅前五名为荣丰控股、世联行、中 国国贸、招商蛇口、张江高科，涨幅分别为 10.05%、3.85%、2.68%、 2.22%、1.64%；个股跌幅前五名分别为新黄浦、天健集团、皇庭国际、 京投发展、亚通股份，跌幅分别为-3.13%、-2.43%、-2.26%、-2.17%、 -2.12%. 成交数据： 成交套数：本周累计成交 4626 套，环比上周同期-1.3%。其中一 线城市环比上周同期+13.0%；二线城市环比上周同期-9.8%；三线城市 环比上周同期-12.3%。成交面积：上周商品房累计成交 50.5 万方，环 比上周同期+0.8%。其中一线城市环比上周同期+14.1%；二线城市成 交环比上周同期-1.5%；三线城市成交环比上周同期- ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that five out of six sub-sectors in the pharmaceutical index recorded negative returns, indicating poor performance in the market [1] - China and Africa emphasize the importance of health cooperation and are committed to building a health community to achieve the United Nations' 2030 Sustainable Development Goals [1][8] - China has provided 240 million doses of vaccines and various medical supplies to 53 African countries and the African Union during the COVID-19 pandemic, and will continue to send medical experts to enhance Africa's public health system [8][9] Group 2: Industry Performance Review - The pharmaceutical sector's performance from September 2 to September 6 shows that the best-performing sub-sector was pharmaceutical commerce (+1.79%), while the worst were medical services (-2.70%) and biological products (-3.34%) [13] - The valuation levels for the chemical pharmaceutical sector were the highest at 53.47 times, while the lowest was for pharmaceutical commerce at 17.31 times [13][15] Group 3: Medical Industry Hotspots - The first seminar on the high-quality development of model animal research and application was held, with over 200 experts discussing advancements and future directions in biomedicine [19] - The National Health Commission is actively promoting the inclusion of certain traditional Chinese medicinal materials into the food and drug substance directory, which could enhance the development of the food-medicine dual-use industry [19]