策 略 研 究 华福证券 35 只医药生物主题走出见底形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 35 只医药生物主题走出见底形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 153、41、47、11 只。其中，153 只见底形态的主 题指数多为医药生物、电力设备和计算机行业，而 41 只突破形态的主题指 数中多数为农林牧渔和有色金属行业。47 只主升形态的主题指数主要包含 国防军工、通信和电子行业；而 11 只加速形态的主题指数则多为国防军工 行业。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题的交易热度持续回升，但对应龙头股收盘 价仍低于 MA60 的位置。我 ...

Table_First|Table_Summary 固收定期研究 2025 年 5 月 11 日 【华福固收】 AIC 扩容的影响和机会 ➢ AIC扩容的影响和机会 ➢ 金融债 二永债方面，目前短端品种表现更优，且短期内仍有一定的下行空间，国股行二永债流 动性更好，有"类利率"的交易属性，可以在当前行情中博弈相关投资机会，5Y及以内 的国股行二永债可以直接找凸点交易；对于想提前关注长端二永的机构来说，部分流动 性较强的如9-10Y高等级二永可按照每调买机进行适度参与。配置角度来看，票息策略 仍占优，对于负债端稳定的机构来说，可以在头部城农商行二永债中适当下沉，目前隐 含评级AA+的4-5Y二永债的信用利差分别为38.35BP和42.90BP，较同期限AAA-二永债的 利差分别高出5.27BP和5.07BP，有一定的配置优势。 2025年5月7日，兴业银行获国家金融监督管理总局批准筹建兴银金融资产投资有限公 司，注册资本100亿元，为兴业银行的全资子公司。兴银金融资产投资有限公司顺利开 业后，将成为首家由股份行持牌的金融资产投资公司（AIC），也将打破当前"五大AIC" 的行业格局成为我国第六家金融AIC。次日 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][61]. Core Views - The lithium battery sector is focusing on the upcoming CIBF battery exhibition, with attention on solid-state battery technologies [2][9]. - In the photovoltaic sector, Longi Green Energy has signed a strategic cooperation agreement for over 1GW of BC components, marking the entry into the global BC era [3][19]. - The energy storage sector has seen a drop in the average price of 2-hour storage systems below 0.6 yuan, with a total bidding scale of 10.2GW/30.2GWh in April [3][30]. - The power equipment and industrial control sector has announced a bidding result of 5.468 billion yuan for distribution network equipment [4][38]. - The hydrogen energy sector is experiencing a long-term decline in production-side hydrogen price index, with supportive policies introduced in Henan province [4][49]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The CIBF 2025 will showcase the latest battery technologies, including solid-state batteries [9]. - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has reached 20%, with significant product releases from battery companies [10]. - Companies with cost advantages and those leading in fast-charging and high-voltage technologies are recommended for investment [11][12]. 2. New Energy Generation Sector - Longi Green Energy's agreement for over 1GW of Hi-MO 9 components signifies a shift towards high-efficiency BC technology [19][20]. - The solar industry is facing price declines across various segments, including polysilicon and modules, with expectations of continued downward pressure [21][25]. - Investment suggestions include companies benefiting from demand surges and those with price elasticity in the battery segment [26][27]. 3. Energy Storage Sector - The average price of 2-hour storage systems has decreased to 0.589 yuan/Wh, with strong bidding activity in various provinces [30][31]. - The introduction of the 136 document in Shandong province indicates a shift in energy storage policy, allowing for market participation without mandatory storage [32][35]. - Investment recommendations focus on quality storage integration companies and those benefiting from the growth of energy storage systems [34]. 4. Power Equipment and Industrial Control Sector - The total bidding amount for distribution network equipment reached 5.468 billion yuan, indicating robust demand [38][39]. - The completion of the ±800 kV UHVDC project will enhance green energy transmission in Shandong [40]. - Investment opportunities are identified in companies benefiting from overseas expansion and digital power grid developments [44]. 5. Hydrogen Energy Sector - The national hydrogen price index is on a long-term downward trend, with new standards for proton exchange membranes being implemented [49][50]. - Policies supporting hydrogen energy development have been introduced in Henan province, with significant projects underway [50][51]. - Investment suggestions include companies involved in green hydrogen production and fuel cell systems [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Insights - In April, China's overall exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in export value, although exports to the U.S. declined by over 20% [8] - The global sales of AI smart glasses reached 600,000 units in Q1 2025, marking a 216% year-on-year growth, driven primarily by the success of Ray Ban Meta smart glasses [8] - The report continues to recommend sectors benefiting from new consumer trends, particularly in personal care and trendy toys [8] Summary by Sections Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market with a 3.02% increase in the index from May 6 to May 9, 2025, compared to a 2.00% increase in the CSI 300 index [17] - Sub-sectors such as entertainment products (+3.91%) and home goods (+3.30%) showed strong performance [17] Home Furnishing - In March, the furniture retail sales increased by 29.5% year-on-year, while the furniture export value decreased by 7.8% in April [45] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the home furnishing sector as consumer confidence gradually improves [6] Paper and Packaging - As of May 9, 2025, the prices of various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5,250 CNY/ton (-56.3 CNY/ton) and boxboard paper at 3,506.6 CNY/ton (+2.4 CNY/ton) [55] - The paper industry experienced a cumulative revenue decline of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, with a sales profit margin of 2.7% [69] New Consumer Trends - The report emphasizes the growth in the AI smart glasses market, with expectations of 5.5 million units sold in 2025, driven by new product launches from various brands [8] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Mingyue Optical and Kangnai Optical, which are positioned to benefit from this trend [8] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also outperformed the market, with a 3.47% increase in the index from May 6 to May 9, 2025 [27] - The report suggests monitoring leading brands in apparel and outdoor products as domestic consumption policies begin to take effect [27]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [58]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Huayi Group plans to acquire a leading fluorochemical new materials company, aiming to enhance its strategic positioning in the fields of "new energy, new materials, new environmental protection, and new biology" [4][32]. - The Chinese smartphone market saw a 9% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, reaching 68.7 million units, driven by normalized inventory levels and government subsidy programs [37]. - The Wind New Materials Index rose by 2.83% this week, with notable increases in semiconductor materials and lithium battery indices, reflecting a positive market trend [3][14]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Review - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 3615.83 points, up 2.83% week-on-week. The semiconductor materials index rose by 3.14%, while the lithium battery index increased by 5.34% [3][14]. Key Company Updates - Huayi Group announced its intention to acquire 60% of Shanghai Huayi San Aifu New Materials Co., Ltd. for 4.091 billion yuan, which will enhance its product matrix in fine chemicals and fluorochemical products [4][33]. - The report notes that San Aifu is expected to generate revenues of 5.29 billion yuan and 4.62 billion yuan in 2023 and 2024, respectively, with net profits of 344 million yuan and 253 million yuan [33]. Recent Industry Trends - The report tracks the significant growth in the semiconductor materials sector, emphasizing the acceleration of domestic production and the expansion of wafer fabs [37]. - The closure of the Lavradio plant by SGL Carbon is noted as part of a restructuring due to declining demand and overcapacity in the carbon fiber market [32][34].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [13] Core Insights - Apple is actively expanding into 3D printing, having posted job openings for a Rapid Prototyping Manager and a Design Engineer in Additive Manufacturing, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing manufacturing capabilities [3][4] - The first foldable iPhone from Apple is expected to launch in the fall of 2026, which could significantly impact the foldable smartphone market, currently dominated by Huawei and Samsung [4] - The Chinese smartphone market saw a 5% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q1 2025, with Xiaomi leading the market [4] Summary by Sections 3D Printing - Apple is hiring for positions related to 3D printing, emphasizing the importance of rapid prototyping and manufacturing solutions [3] - Companies to watch in the 3D printing application space include Huazhu Gaoke and Bolite [5] Foldable Smartphones - Apple's entry into the foldable smartphone market is anticipated to revitalize the segment, which saw a decline in shipments in Q4 2024 [4] - The foldable smartphone market is currently led by Huawei with a 31.2% market share [4] Smartphone Market - The Chinese smartphone market is experiencing growth, with significant contributions from brands like Xiaomi and Huawei [4] - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in automation assembly and testing equipment, as well as those producing components for Android devices and foldable smartphones [5]

行 华福证券 家用电器 2025 年 05 月 11 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 家用电器 美的集团与海信集团达成合作；Q2 内销排产空调 高增——25W19 周观点 投资要点： 美的集团与海信集团达成合作；Q2 内销排产空调高增，出口端白电排 产略显承压 美的与海信海信就 AI 应用，工业互联等层面展开合作：5 月 7 日， 美的集团与海信集团签订战略合作协议，双方将围绕 AI 应用、全球先 进制造、智慧物流等多领域开展全面战略合作。 告 Q2 内销排产空调高增，出口端白电排产略显承压：产业在线数据 显示 2025 年 5 月空冰洗排产合计总量 3821 万台，同比+5.9%。其中空 调 5-7 月排产同比分别为+9.9%/+14.1%/+14.3%，冰箱 5-7 月排产同比 分 别 为 -4.9%/+0.4%/-3.1% ， 洗 衣 机 5-7 月 排 产 同 比 分 别 为 6.5%/2.2%/2.4%。 行情数据 本周纺织服装板块涨跌幅+3.47%，其中纺织制造涨跌幅+5.39%， 服装家纺涨跌幅+2.72%。本周 328 级棉现货 14122 元/吨（-0.43%）， 美棉 CotlookA ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, indicating it is expected to outperform the market [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant breakthrough in sepsis treatment through immune homeostasis therapy, specifically recommending attention to Yuan Da Pharmaceutical's STC3141 [4][16]. - Sepsis is a common complication in critically ill patients, with a high global prevalence of approximately 49 million cases and an annual death toll of around 11 million [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the challenges in developing new therapies for sepsis due to its complex pathophysiology and the high failure rate of clinical trials [4][43]. - STC3141 has shown promising results in clinical trials, demonstrating a significant reduction in SOFA scores, particularly in high-dose groups compared to placebo [4][59]. Summary by Sections Sepsis Overview - Sepsis is a severe condition resulting from infections, with a high mortality rate, particularly in ICU patients in China, where the prevalence is about 20.6% and the 90-day mortality rate is 35.5% [4][21]. - The complexity of sepsis mechanisms and patient heterogeneity complicates the development of effective treatments [4][43]. Treatment Developments - The immune homeostasis therapy represented by STC3141 aims to address the underlying immune dysregulation in sepsis, marking a significant advancement in treatment strategies [4][49]. - Clinical trials for STC3141 have been successful, achieving primary endpoints and showing good safety and tolerability profiles [4][59]. Market Trends - The pharmaceutical sector has shown signs of recovery after a prolonged adjustment period, with innovation in drug development being a key focus for investment [5][8]. - The report suggests that the innovation-driven pharmaceutical sector is likely to maintain strong performance throughout the year, with specific recommendations for leading companies and those with clear catalysts [4][5].

行 业 汽车 2025 年 05 月 11 日 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 汽车 吉利汽车建议私有化极氪 小鹏汇天生产许可证 申请获受理 投资要点： 本周专题：吉利汽车建议私有化极氪 小鹏汇天生产许可证申请获受理 5 月 7 日，吉利汽车公告称，公司于 2025 年 5 月 7 日向极氪提交 非约束性报价函，建议私有化极氪，收购所有已发行及发行在外的极 氪股份及美国存托股票（本集团实益拥有者除外）。公告称，建议购 买价为每股极氪股份 2.566 美元或每股美国存托股票 25.66 美元。 一旦私有化建议落实并完成，极氪将成为吉利汽车的全资附属公 司，实现私有化并于纽交所退市。此举是吉利汽车进一步落实《台州 宣言》，聚焦汽车主业，提升资源利用效率，深化品牌协同的重要步 骤，将强化吉利汽车在智能新能源汽车领域的全球竞争力。 5 月 9 日，小鹏汇天宣布，"陆地航母"飞行体生产许可证（PC） 申请正式获得民用航空中南地区管理局受理，标志着飞行汽车产品量 产体系开始接受局方审查。 生产许可证（PC） 是民航主管部门颁发给民用航空产品型号设计 批准持有人或其权益转让人的证件，用于表明其已建立航空产品的生 产体系和质 ...

宏 观 研 究 投资要点： 宏 观 定 期 报 告 受第二轮抢出口拉动，4 月出口同比 8.1%，较预期更为强劲；加之中美 拟进行对等经贸会谈，美关税烈度整体趋缓，预计二次抢出口可望贯穿二季度， 下半年出口下行风险犹存。4 月出口（美元计价，下同）同比 8.1%，较春节调 整后的 3 月同比增速回升达 2.4 个百分点，在 4 月特朗普推出"对等关税"之 后又针对部分国家地区实施 90 天缓冲、针对半导体等商品实施豁免，造成出 口企业预期巨大波动的背景下，较我们此前稍显乐观的预期（5.7%）更加强劲， 凸显出新一轮"抢出口"显著的拉动作用。近期我国同意与美方进行对等经贸 会谈，美国内需受到短期刺激效应同时关税烈度整体趋缓，预计我国的二次抢 出口有望贯穿整个二季度。4 月进口同比跌幅较 3 月收窄 4.1 个百分点至-0.2%， 进口反弹带动当月货物贸易顺差小幅收窄至 961.8 亿美元但仍维持高位。美国 发起的本轮关税战进入拉锯阶段，美方试图将我国强大的产业链生产能力从其 供给侧逐步剥离的意图尚未根本性改变，下半年我国出口下行风险犹存。 关税动荡中边际缓和，我国域外协同生产活跃度陡升；人民币汇率指数小 幅走弱 ...