华福证券 2025 年 04 月 02 日 策 略 研 究 消费与医疗周报——生物药企业：出海模式多态 并存，市场拓展方兴未艾 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业仅三分之一录得正收益，表现 不佳。 策 略 定 期 报 告 2、根据沙利文《2025 年中国生物药出海趋势蓝皮书》，中国生物 药企业通过 license-out、NewCo、并购等多种模式加速国际化进程，其 中 license-out 模式逐渐成为中国生物药企获取现金流的重要途径。2023 年，中国生物药 license-out 交易数量首次超过 license-in，交易总金额 达到 192.7 亿美元，远超一级市场 45.0 亿的融资规模。2024 年，相关 交易事件数量进一步增长至 45 件，主要集中在肿瘤、罕见病及免疫系 统疾病等领域。对于中国生物药企业，东南亚、中东及北非等新兴市 场展现出巨大潜力。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、消费金融新政—宏观政策与产业风口跟踪—— 2025.03.31 2、滞涨与关税双击下的美股困局——2025. ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant increase in the prevalence of allergic diseases globally since the 21st century, attributed to environmental issues and lifestyle changes, with the WHO identifying allergies as one of the three major diseases to focus on in this century [2][3] - Approximately 20% to 30% of the global population suffers from allergic diseases, including 300 million asthma patients and 400 million with allergic rhinitis, with China reporting around 40% of its population affected by allergies [3][4] Group 2 - The global allergy diagnostics market is projected to reach 38.94 billion yuan in 2024 and 71.85 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.75% from 2024 to 2030 [4][10] - Traditional allergy testing methods are categorized into in vivo and in vitro tests, with skin prick tests being the most widely used in vivo method due to its simplicity, low cost, and high safety [4][5] - In vitro testing methods, such as serum total IgE and sIgE testing, are gaining popularity for their safety and precision, with various techniques like immunofluorescence and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays being utilized in China [9][10] Group 3 - The demand for allergy diagnostics is expected to rise due to the increasing prevalence of allergic diseases and the low current diagnosis rates in China, which may lead to a significant market expansion as public awareness grows [10][12] - Advances in research and technology, such as microfluidic technology and specific IgE testing, are anticipated to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of allergy diagnostics, potentially altering the market landscape [10][12] - A trend towards domestic alternatives to imported allergy testing products is emerging in China, driven by improvements in local companies' R&D capabilities and government support [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 119 per share, implying a market capitalization of HKD 106.9 billion [6]. Core Insights - The company has made significant progress with its drug Ivonescimab (依沃西), which is expected to receive approval for first-line lung cancer treatment by H1 2025. The drug has also been included in the 2024 National Medical Insurance Directory [2][17]. - Multiple Phase III clinical trials for Ivonescimab are advancing efficiently, with promising data indicating it may become the preferred first-line treatment for advanced PD-L1 positive NSCLC [3][19]. - The company is also developing other indications for Ivonescimab, including colorectal cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, and triple-negative breast cancer, with expected peak sales exceeding HKD 55 billion domestically and USD 60 billion globally for lung cancer [23][41]. Summary by Sections Ivonescimab Developments - Ivonescimab has received NMPA approval for treating EGFR-TKI resistant non-squamous NSCLC and is included in the national insurance directory for 2024 [3][17]. - The drug's application for first-line treatment of PD-L1 positive NSCLC has received priority review and is expected to be approved by H1 2025, with mPFS data showing significant improvement over existing treatments [3][19]. - Ongoing Phase III trials for various cancers are showing promising results, with the potential for Ivonescimab to become a leading treatment option in multiple indications [19][22]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of HKD 33.37 billion, HKD 50.18 billion, and HKD 78.85 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a projected net profit of HKD 6.12 billion in 2026 and HKD 24.73 billion in 2027 [6][8]. - The report highlights a significant growth trajectory, with a projected increase in earnings per share (EPS) from -0.57 in 2024 to 2.76 in 2027 [8]. Market Potential - The report estimates that the domestic sales peak for Ivonescimab in lung cancer could exceed HKD 55 billion, while global sales could surpass USD 60 billion, driven by its first-line treatment potential [23][41]. - The company is also exploring the treatment of colorectal cancer, with expectations of peak sales exceeding HKD 30 billion, supported by strong clinical trial results [43].

华福证券 2025 年 04 月 02 日 金 融 工 程 4 月行业配置重点推荐顺周期——行业配置策略 月度报告(2025/4) 投资要点： 宏观驱动策略 金 融 工 程 定 期 报 告 自2016年初至2025年3月31日，综合模型超额年化收益率4.92%， 超额波动率 7.23%，信息比率 0.68，最大回撤 9.51%，IC 均值 5.17%， ICIR18.66%，年化换手 3.22 倍。模型在 2025 年 4 月份推荐的行业包 括汽车、有色金属、食品饮料、石油石化、建筑、电力及公用事业。3 月宏观驱动策略绝对收益 1.02%，超额收益为 1.01%。2025 年以来至 3 月 31 日，综合模型绝对收益 1.28%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 益-3.37%，在主动权益基金中排名 67.00%。 动态平衡策略 我们从平衡的角度提出了兼顾胜率和赔率的动态平衡策略。自 2015 年初至 2025 年 3 月 31 日策略年化绝对收益 16.45%，年化相对收 益 12.3%，信息比率为 1.86，相对最大回撤为 7.87%。模型在 2025 年 4 月份推荐行业为电力设备及新能源、基础化工、通信、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in its 2024 annual report, achieving revenue of 3.02 billion RMB (+30.1%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 307 million RMB (+21.6%), which aligns with expectations [2][8]. - The offline business continues to grow rapidly, with revenue reaching 2.74 billion RMB (+34.5%), driven by contributions from newly acquired institutions and growth in existing operations [4][3]. - The company has expanded its network significantly, operating 79 medical institutions by the end of 2024, an increase of 21 from the previous year, covering 20 cities [6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 30.1%, maintaining year-on-year stability, while the net profit margin was 10.2% (-0.7 percentage points) [5]. - The adjusted net profit for the year was 400 million RMB (+31.4%), reflecting effective cost control with sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 12.2%, 6.1%, and 0.6%, respectively [5]. Business Expansion and Innovation - The company is actively investing in AI technology to enhance its traditional Chinese medicine services, aiming to improve diagnostic capabilities and customer service [7]. - The forecast for revenue growth is optimistic, with projections of 3.81 billion RMB, 4.84 billion RMB, and 6.09 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the traditional Chinese medicine service industry, benefiting from strong demand and supportive policies, with significant long-term growth potential [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [8][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high production output in 2024, leading to better-than-expected financial performance, with a revenue of 213.03 billion yuan, up 14.37% year-on-year, and a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan, up 64.03% year-on-year [3][4]. - The cobalt segment is expected to see positive profit growth in 2025, despite a projected decline in sales volume due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [5][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 213,029 million yuan and a net profit of 13,532 million yuan, with a significant increase in net profit margin [3][7]. - The company’s copper production reached 650,000 tons, a 55% increase year-on-year, positioning it among the top ten global producers [4]. - The average copper price in 2024 reached a historical high of 9,268.9 USD/ton, reflecting an 8.7% increase year-on-year [5]. Production and Inventory - The company successfully ramped up production at major projects, achieving a total copper production capacity of 600,000 tons in the Democratic Republic of Congo [4]. - As of the end of 2024, the company held significant inventories, including 100,000 tons of copper and 42,000 tons of cobalt [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates net profits of 14,875 million yuan, 17,150 million yuan, and 19,942 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.69, 0.80, and 0.93 yuan per share [6][12].

可选消费 2025 年 04 月 01 日 行 业 研 究 家用电器 影石 Insta360：记录光影，突破边界——影石创 新招股书梳理 证 券 智能相机份额居前，核心竞争优势几何？公司在全球智能影像设备领 域地位突出，全景相机领域：根据招股书援引 Frost & Sullivan数据显示 2023 年公司品牌"Insta360 影石"在全球全景相机市场占有率达 67%，稳居行 业第一；在运动相机领域打破欧美、日本品牌的垄断，份额跻身全球第二。 另外公司在国内市场优势地位更为突出，Frost & Sullivan 数据显示 2023 年 公司品牌在国内全景相机份额高达 87%，明显领先日本理光（6%）、GoPro （3%）。公司在研发渠道端均积累丰富经验，具备领先优势，研发产品端： 掌握多项核心技术，持续迭代升级产品。公司成立之处便深耕全景技术， 目前已通过自主研发掌握全景图像采集拼接技术、全景防抖技术、AI 影像 处理技术、计算摄影技术、软件开发技术框架等，且在相关技术领域获得 多项专利，截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日公司及子公司拥有的境内外专利达 800 项。公司深耕智能影像设备领域，持续迭代推出新 ...

华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 3 月 31 日 国内宏观和产业政策周观察（0324-0330） 消费金融新政—宏观政策与产业风口跟踪 投资要点： 本周行业政策聚焦工业智能化升级、绿色转型、消费提振与金融创新， 推动经济高质量发展。国家层面密集出台行业专项规划，如轻工业数字化转 型、铝产业能效提升、人工智能标准体系构建等，强化科技赋能与低碳转 型。资本市场表现分化，医药、消费等防御性板块走强，科技成长板块承 压，热门概念中工业气体、稀土、创新药领涨，AI算力、数据基建等前期热 点回调显著，反映出政策驱动与市场风险偏好变化的双重逻辑。 本周下跌行业居多，Wind二级行业中仅有三个行业上涨。其中，上涨的 行业分别是医药生物 (+1.80%)、家电Ⅱ (+0.66%)、食品饮料 (+0.38%)。跌 幅前五的是软件服务 (-5.06%)、国防军工 (-4.34%)、机械 (-3.31%)、日常 消费零售 (-3.30%)、耐用消费品 (-3.26%)。 本周热门概念中，涨幅排名前十的为鸡产业 (+5.84%)、工业气体 (+4.17%)、稀土 (+3.85%)、抗生素 (+3.16%)、动物保健精选 (+2. ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the dual impact of economic stagnation expectations and tariff uncertainties on the U.S. stock market, with all three major indices declining this week [1][7][28] - Key economic indicators show rising stagnation risks, including the February core PCE price index year-on-year at +2.8% and month-on-month at +0.4%, both exceeding expectations [1][8][28] - The announcement of a 25% tariff on all imported cars by Trump, effective April 2, has negatively affected stock indices, particularly in the automotive sector, leading to lowered profit expectations [1][7][28] Group 2 - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims for the week ending March 22 recorded at 224,000, slightly below the previous week's figure [8][9] - The manufacturing PMI for March is reported at 49.8, below both the previous and expected values, indicating potential contraction in the manufacturing sector [8][9] - The service sector PMI for March stands at 54.3, indicating expansion, and is above both previous and expected values [8][9] Group 3 - The report indicates mixed performance across global asset classes, with CBOT soybean oil showing the largest increase at +7.57%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index experienced a decline of -2.59% [28][31] - In the equity market, the consumer discretionary sector in the U.S. saw a gain of +1.36%, while the information technology sector faced the largest decline at -4.10% [36][31] - The report also highlights that the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar appreciated against the Chinese yuan, while the Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar depreciated [37][31]