宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 05 月 12 日 关税缓和出口汇率趋升，提振内需迎来关键机遇 ——《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》点评 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 中美日内瓦经贸会谈获得明显积极进展，美对华加征关税阶段性大幅下 降，且双方同意建立持续磋商机制。据今日刚刚公布的中美日内瓦经贸会谈联 合声明，中美两国政府就缓和当前的经贸紧张关系达成初步的一致观点，其中 美方承诺取消根据 2025 年 4 月 8 日第 14259 号行政令和 2025 年 4 月 9 日第 14266 号行政令对中国商品加征的共计 91%的关税，并将 4 月 2 日行政令中对 华加征 34%的所谓"对等关税"修改为"其中，24%的关税在初始的 90 天内 暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余 10%的关税"。我 国也承诺对应降低关税反制措施强度。在大幅降低关税的基础上，双方将建立 机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。这一明确的联合声明意味着本轮美国发起的 关税战迎来趋于缓和的明确拐点。 相关报告 1、提振消费，加大投放，疏通利率，稳定汇率— —货币政策执行报告（25Q1）解读——2025.05.10 2、核心 C ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][13] Core Insights - The report highlights a temporary pause in the China-US trade conflict, which is expected to benefit the export sector, particularly in the light industry manufacturing sector [1][4] - The report indicates that in April, China's export value increased by 8.1% year-on-year in USD terms, while exports to the US decreased by over 20%. However, exports to ASEAN and the EU showed significant growth, with increases of 20.8% and 8.3% respectively [4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year revenue growth of approximately 15.9% and a net profit growth of about 17% for major companies in the light industry export chain [4] Summary by Sections Trade Dynamics - The report discusses the recent progress in China-US trade negotiations, resulting in a reduction of incremental tariffs to 30% for the US and 10% for China [4] - The report notes that the export chain sector is expected to maintain strong performance due to the effects of export grabbing and transshipment amid the trade conflict [4] Company Performance - Major companies in the light industry export chain are reported to have robust overseas production capacity and are well-positioned to handle changes in tariff policies [4] - The report suggests that companies such as Jianlin Home, Henglin Shares, and Hars are recommended for attention due to their undervalued status and potential for valuation recovery [4] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the export chain remains a sub-sector with high short-term performance certainty, with expectations for accelerated export grabbing and transshipment in 2025 [4] - Companies with strong overseas production layouts and good profitability, such as Xiangxin Home and Gongchuang Lawn, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From May 6 - 9, short - term varieties performed well, with the 1Y CD rate breaking through the resistance level around 1.75% and dropping nearly 10BP. From May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds increased significantly to 6453 billion yuan, putting pressure on the capital market. However, the RRR cut on May 15 will provide 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity support, and it is expected that the capital interest rate will remain around 1.5%. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, and the short - term still has value. If the capital interest rate stays around the policy rate, when the 1Y CD rate drops to around 1.6%, profit - taking is needed [3][9]. - The "2025 Q1 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" has three key points: First, it affirms the phased results of interest rate formation and transmission and will further improve the interest rate regulation framework; second, it shifts from focusing on activating the stock and preventing idling to increasing credit investment and highlighting quantitative tools; third, it mentions the US tariff policy multiple times and sets up a special column to discuss government debt and inflation [3][9][13]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Current Situation and Future Concerns - On May 7, a package of financial policies were introduced. From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was negative, but the capital price declined slowly before the interest rate cut on May 8, which may be related to the central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal of over 1 trillion yuan from May 6 - 7. After the interest rate cut on May 8, the capital price dropped significantly. As of May 9, DR001 was 1.49%, R001 was 1.52%, DR007 was 1.54%, and R007 was 1.58%. The spread between DR007 and 7DOMO was 14BP, and the spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [8]. - The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, the long - end adjustment was larger, and the yield curve steepened. In the short term, the possibility of further easing decreased, and the short - term still has value [9]. 2. Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan. The bill interest rate changed little from May 6 - 9, with the 3M national - share discount rate rising from 1.07% to 1.09% and the six - month national - share transfer discount rate remaining around 1.07% [32][34]. 3. Open - Market Operation Tracking - As of May 9, the central bank's total open - market operation balance was 9664.1 billion yuan, including a pledged reverse - repurchase balance of 836.1 billion yuan, a repurchase - style reverse - repurchase balance of 460 billion yuan, and an MLF balance of 465.7 billion yuan. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan [39]. 4. Government Bond Tracking 4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From May 5 - 9, treasury bonds were issued for 37.1 billion yuan with a net financing of 19.558 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 10.5459 billion yuan with a net financing of 6.7224 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, treasury bonds were issued for 55 billion yuan with a net financing of 46.067 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 19.725 billion yuan with a net financing of 17.1114 billion yuan [45][47]. 4.2 Government Bond Payment - From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at - 75.42 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 63.13 billion yuan. It is expected that from May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds will be 645.32 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at 481.67 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 163.65 billion yuan [52]. 5. Inter - Bank Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 5.1 Primary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, inter - bank CDs were issued for 857.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 368.5 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, the maturity of inter - bank CDs was 593.9 billion yuan. In terms of bank types, joint - stock banks had the highest issuance scale; in terms of maturity types, 1Y had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 97%. The issuance success rate of state - owned banks was the highest at 100%, and that of 1Y was 98%. The issuance interest rates of all types of banks and all maturities decreased significantly [57][58]. 5.2 Secondary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, after the central bank announced the RRR cut and interest rate cut, the secondary - market yields of CDs of all maturities decreased significantly, with the 3M CD yield dropping by 13bp and the yields of other maturities dropping by about 8bp [80]. 6. Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The estimated excess reserve ratio at the end of March 2025 was 1.00%. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market net withdrawal was 781.7 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, reducing the excess reserve scale by 769.41 billion yuan in total [86].

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固定收益专题 2025 年 5 月 12 日 【华福固收】财税视角看县域经济 投资要点： 24 年县域社会消费增速高于全国，比重也有近三成，对全国的消 费拉动作用明显。县域消费更加具备活力，与城镇化、区域财力适当 下沉、区域内体制内职工就业与工资的相对稳定、网络普及消费观念 改变（个性化、悦己型）、供给端日益丰富和完善（包含电商下沉、 "最后一公里"的完善、《县域商业三年行动计划（2023—2025 年）》 政策）、大城市年轻人口回流、生育政策的改善、县域旅游热度提升等 密切相关。 政策端，如 23 年印发的《县域商业三年行动计划（2023—2025 年）》明确，到 2025 年，在全国打造 500 个左右的县域商业"领跑 县"，建设改造一批县级物流配送中心、乡镇商贸中心（大中型超市、 集贸市场）和农村新型便民商店。 观察近年各县及县级市税收及增速，近四年复合增速较高的县域 包括巴里坤哈萨克自治县、房县、枝江市、沙雅县、蒲县、西乌珠穆 沁旗、宜都市、达拉特旗、习水县、汾阳市、舞阳县、山阴县、应城 市、景宁畲族自治县、临颍县、中阳县等，税收增速高的县 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the exosome industry is in its early stages of industrialization, with significant growth potential anticipated in the coming years [3][8][9] - Exosomes, which are nano-sized vesicles involved in intercellular communication, play crucial roles in tumor progression, immune regulation, and metastasis, with applications in early cancer detection and treatment guidance [3][8] - The global exosome market is projected to grow from USD 112.25 million in 2022 to approximately USD 1.5 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.75%, with around 30% of applications in oncology and 50% of revenue generated by biopharmaceutical companies [3][8] Group 2 - The report notes that there are currently at least 46 companies in China engaged in exosome research and development, focusing on areas such as separation, purification, detection, new drug development, delivery, and diagnostics [3][8] - The industrialization of exosomes is still in its nascent phase, with only a few products available in the disease diagnosis sector, while drug delivery applications remain in early development without any products on the market [9] - The report emphasizes that the lack of a clear competitive landscape presents substantial opportunities for new entrants in the exosome industry [9]

策 略 研 究 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 5 月 12 日 大事记下的市场运行 投资要点： 本周（5/5-5/9）市场偏强震荡，全 A 收涨 2.32%。从指数情况看，微 盘股、创业板指领涨，仅科创 50 收跌。从风格情况看，先进制造、金融地 产领涨，科技、医药医疗涨幅居后。本周 31 个申万行业全部收涨，国防军 工、通信、电力设备领涨，商贸零售、电子、房地产涨幅较窄。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 1.4%，位于+1 标准差、+2 标准差之间。估值分化系数有 所上升。（2）市场情绪：市场情绪回暖，行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风 格占优，微盘股指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在商业航天、军工信息 化、通用航空。（3）市场结构：市场量能环比上升，国防军工、家用电器、 计算机多头个股占比居前，石油石化、商贸零售、农林牧渔内部或存在α 机会。（4）市场资金：本周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 187 亿 元，本周陆股通周内日平均成交笔数较上周上升 58 万笔。陆股通成交额排 名前三的标的为比亚迪、宁德时代、新易盛，近 5 日涨幅分 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][69] Core Viewpoints - The recent reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates and the expected incremental policies are anticipated to boost home buying willingness and ability, thereby stabilizing the real estate market fundamentals [3][6] - The central bank's actions, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 percentage point policy interest rate reduction, are expected to provide long-term liquidity of approximately 1 trillion yuan to the market [3][6] - The report highlights that the real estate sector is gradually entering a bottoming phase after three consecutive years of decline in commodity housing sales area, with increasing sensitivity to policy easing [3][6] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - On May 7, the People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 percentage point policy interest rate reduction, along with a 0.25 percentage point decrease in personal housing provident fund loan rates [3][13] - The report outlines various local government initiatives aimed at supporting housing purchases, including increased subsidies for green buildings and multi-child families [3][13] High-Frequency Data - As of May 9, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 390.0 yuan/ton, showing a 1.3% decrease from the previous week but an 11.5% increase year-on-year [4][14] - The national average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1271.4 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.3% decrease from the previous week and a 24.7% decrease year-on-year [4][22] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.92%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 2.88%. The building materials sector index rose by 2.55% [5][55] - Among sub-sectors, refractory materials saw the highest increase at 7.96%, followed by other building materials at 4.44% and cement products at 4.42% [5][55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming [6][58]

行 业 银行 2025 年 05 月 11 日 研 究 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 银行 公募基金改革方案出台，银行股配置需求有望系 统性提升 投资要点： 证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》 中国证监会于近日公开印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》（下 文简称"行动方案"），推动公募基金改革。行动方案共提出 25 条举 措，督促基金公司、基金销售机构等行业机构从"重规模"向"重回 报"转变。 行动方案强化业绩比较基准要求 行动方案强化基金产品业绩比较基准的业绩对比作用、考核作为、约 束力，具体要求包括： 1）对主动管理权益类基金，推行与基金业绩表现挂钩的浮动管理费率 收取模式。业绩明显低于比较基准的，须少收管理费。 2）将业绩比较基准对比等指标引入考核体系，建立健全与基金投资收 益相挂钩的薪酬管理机制。对三年以上产品业绩低于业绩比较基准超 过 10 个百分点的基金经理，要求其绩效薪酬应当明显下降；对三年以 上产品业绩显著超过业绩比较基准的基金经理，可以合理适度提高其 绩效薪酬。 3）强化基金产品业绩比较基准的约束力，充分发挥其体现产品定位、 衡量产品业绩的作用。 以上方案的提出强化了业绩比较基准的核心 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term credit bonds have different performance characteristics in different market conditions. In a bear market, long - term credit bonds have better anti - decline performance, while in a bull market, they have higher comprehensive returns. In a volatile market, 5 - 7Y bonds perform better in terms of returns [2][3][25]. - Different types of institutional investors can choose different long - term credit bond investment strategies according to their own needs. For example, institutions with higher requirements for subject qualifications and liquidity management can focus on medium - term notes, while institutions with stable liability ends can consider increasing long - term credit bonds [5][6][61]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Long - term Credit Bond Advantages 3.1.1 Yield Fluctuation Range - In a bull market, short - term credit bonds perform better, while in a bear market, long - term credit bonds have stronger anti - decline performance. This is affected by liquidity and investor structure [2][16]. - Among different credit bond varieties, long - term general credit bonds have stronger anti - decline performance than long - term secondary perpetual bonds [3][17]. 3.1.2 Interval Return - In a bull market, long - term credit bonds have outstanding comprehensive returns, while in a bear market, their returns are slightly lower than short - term varieties. In a volatile market, 5 - 7Y bonds have better returns [25]. - Among different credit bond varieties, 5 - 7Y secondary capital bonds are more likely to underperform general credit bonds in a bull market, and since 2021, secondary capital bonds have mostly underperformed general credit bonds in a bear market [26]. 3.1.3 Liquidity Perspective - In terms of maturity, the 9 - 10Y long - term credit bonds have relatively better liquidity among long - term bonds. In terms of variety, medium - term notes have higher turnover rates regardless of market conditions or maturity, and short - term (within 5Y) secondary perpetual bonds are more sensitive to market conditions [4][43][45]. 3.1.4 Institutional Trading Behavior - Insurance companies are the main stable net buyers of long - term credit bonds, and other product - type institutions such as securities asset management, social security funds, and pension funds can also form a liquidity cushion with insurance companies [4][51]. 3.2 How to Invest in Long - term Credit Bonds - Due to the expected volatile bond market in May, short - term varieties have higher short - term certainty. However, long - term credit bonds have certain allocation value for institutional investors with stable liability ends who want to increase returns through duration strategies [5][54]. - Institutions with higher requirements for subject qualifications and liquidity management can focus on medium - term notes, and consider 9 - 10Y secondary perpetual bonds in certain market conditions. Institutions with stable liability ends can increase the allocation of long - term credit bonds and consider using riding strategies for urban investment bonds [5][61][62].

行 业 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 05 月 11 日 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：中国军工的价值重估时刻已到 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 5 月 7 日，巴基斯坦表示，印度当天凌晨向巴基斯坦本土及巴控克什米尔 地区的三处地点发射了导弹，印巴冲突升级，直至 5 月 10 日，印巴双方同 意立即停火；而巴基斯坦为我国主要武器装备出口国，根据海国图智研究 院援引的斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所（SIPRI）统计，2023 年中国军贸出 口占全球市场份额的 5.80%，其中约 60%的出口对象为巴基斯坦，且交战 期间相关实况报道进一步验证了中国军事装备近年快速发展的强实力，因 此本周军贸主题及其相关标的跑出明显超额，带动国防军工板块表现优异， 本周（5.6-5.9）申万军工指数（801740）上涨 6.33% ，同期沪深 300 指数 上涨 2.00%，相对超额 4.32pct。 5 月 11 日，人民日报刊文《加快解放和发展新质战斗力》，文中写到："向 新而生，向质图强。当前，新一轮科技革命和产业变革蓬勃发展，大量高 新技术武器用于实战，智能技术、无人装备、大数据应用等成为战斗力新 的 ...